Here we go again...another game recession coming?

[swlovinist]

Madden is totally different. It has survived at times for being a total monopoly. It also caters to a specific fan base...rabbid sports gamers. Due to the sport of football changing each season, it is easy to milk out a skin job to cater to that demand.

Only in time will total sales see reflection of how down we are from previous years. Whether or not we are down 34% or not, I bet you we still will be down.

[The 1 2 P]

Madden is totally different. It has survived at times for being a total monopoly. It also caters to a specific fan base...rabbid sports gamers.

And you don't think there are rabbid shooter fans that play nothing but fps games? You don't think there are COD diehard fans that play nothing but COD online multiplayer all year round until the newest one comes out? Those fans will keep COD going because console fps games are not a fad. COD now sells around 15-20+ million units per installment. Even if that dropped back down to 2-6 million that franchise will indeed continue. I actually wish they only released them every other year because the community would certainly persist long enough for that. But they will keep coming out yearly because people keep buying them yearly and the numbers are still going up.

Only in time will total sales see reflection of how down we are from previous years. Whether or not we are down 34% or not, I bet you we still will be down.

I wouldn't be surprised if we were down but you need to keep in mind that a significant amount of sales will not be a part of that list. Walmart(who only a few weeks ago agreed to finally share their video game sales figures with NPD) will be absent as will Steam. Between the two of them you are talking about atleast another 500 million in video game sales annually. And while those are two big ones there are many more that won't be counted. This matters because they are obviously a big part of video game sales every year and while their numbers should be factored in they won't be because of their own personal policies.

[swlovinist]

keep in mind that Walmart has not been counted in the past, so in actuality, their sales could be less now then what they have been in the past. I dont think that shooters are a fad, what I do think is the COD franchise is on the downward slope. When the series makes one too many(like it will) and another competitor or series advances the fanbase will move on. Activision/Blizzard just see the $$$ and dont care about content. The moment they overstep this tired franchise and milk too many is when the series will go belly up. I predict that when this happens, it will have an impact on game sales.

The problem with the industry right now is that sequels are the norm. Instead of having a sequel every now and then, we have one pumped out every year. The revenue result from a successful sequel is too much a draw for several companies now. In the past, we had a game come out and a lengthy time in between games. This helped generate hype and create demand for games. It just seems now that every year we are to expect yet another game from X franchise game, paired with portable X version of the game, combined with smartphone X version of the game.

At some point, people are going to express with their wallets, that they have had their fill. I expressed this years ago, and still believe that there will come a time when the industry will go to the well of a franchise and it will not be as full as it once was. What goes up, must some time come down.

[The 1 2 P]

keep in mind that Walmart has not been counted in the past, so in actuality, their sales could be less now then what they have been in the past. I dont think that shooters are a fad, what I do think is the COD franchise is on the downward slope. When the series makes one too many(like it will) and another competitor or series advances the fanbase will move on. Activision/Blizzard just see the $$$ and dont care about content. The moment they overstep this tired franchise and milk too many is when the series will go belly up. I predict that when this happens, it will have an impact on game sales.

Well it's not going to happen this gen. The brand is just too strong. Battlefield 3 launched right beside them to go head to head. Battlefield 3 has sold 10 million units so far. And even with that kind of direct competition COD still broke their previous record, all entertainment records and is on track to outsell last years version(if they haven't already). You factor that all in and you get back to what I originally said: if this franchise is ever going to slow down(and I believe it will eventually) it's not going to be during this generation.

The problem with the industry right now is that sequels are the norm. Instead of having a sequel every now and then, we have one pumped out every year. The revenue result from a successful sequel is too much a draw for several companies now. In the past, we had a game come out and a lengthy time in between games. This helped generate hype and create demand for games. It just seems now that every year we are to expect yet another game from X franchise game, paired with portable X version of the game, combined with smartphone X version of the game.

I agree with you here but as I've already stated companies will keep making them as long as people keep buying them. Certain titles get to a point where the brand name is actually stronger than the actual products and they start selling on name recognition alone. Even if the products aren't great they will still sell. You can say this about the Star Wars brand, Sony brand(all their electronics) and now you can add COD to that list. People don't even know what the next one will be called(Black Ops 2 and a space game have been rumored) or what the storyline and multiplayer modes will be. But they are still going to buy it and would probably preorder it today if they could.

I also wish series like COD, Halo and Assassins Creed would stop bringing out new entries every year but theres money to be made. And even if you decide with your wallet theres another 20 million people who will decide with their wallet the opposite way. I think next gen is the safest bet to when the annual releases will dry up a bit. But then again, they might continue even more. We just have to wait and see.

[swlovinist]

I agree that next gen is when the rubber meets the road. Alot of game sales will also depend of perception of a game system, value of what it has to offer over the previous models. I personally think that Sony and MS want to cautiously roll out their next game system. For that I am grateful, but wonder if this year is going to be a drought year due to some projects being held back for the next gen consoles. I do have to admit that the current gen consoles has sold better than I have ever would have thought, though I wonder how many people had to buy two/three consoles to replace ones that died.

[ianoid]

It's easy to say GAMING IS GOING DOWN and then when it does, to say I TOLD YOU SO!

I think there will be ups and downs, but I believe gaming is here to stay. It's not a fad or a trend. It's a burgeoning form of entertainment that we will enjoy in one shape or another for our entire lives. Games won't look like they do today in 20 years or 40 years, so we can be nostalgic (and figure out a way to set up servers to play online and MMORPG games of yesteryear). But gaming is moving forward and permeating nearly everyone's lives.

Definitely portable gaming is evolving into something different. Will the PSVs and 3DSs of the world survive what the iPhone and similar offer? Hard to tell how many generations of dedicated portable consoles we have left in our future.

[wingzrow]

Specifically for japanese games? I think so. Less and less seem to be coming to the west, smaller companies are dying out, quality RPGs are not as abundant as they were in the PS1, or even the PS2 days.

Surprisingly enough we just got xenoblade and the last story so I still have some hope.