Who here hates on-line sellers sometimes?

[understatement]

I'm willing to bet that it does provide a small advantage in some instances, but none of us have any empirical data to prove or disprove that advantage or how often it occurs. All that we have are our own personal feelings and beliefs about it, and that's it.

Like I said before, it's just too much work and stress for me. I don't want or need anything on eBay so badly that I'm going to halt my life in order to watch an auction just so that I can put a bid in last second. I used to do it all the time. Setting an alarm for 3 am so I wouldn't miss out, interrupting dinner with my wife so I could place a bid, dropping whatever far more important thing that I could be doing in order to try and win an auction for slightly less money just seemed absurd to me. Plus, it RARELY ever worked. Most often I either lost or won at a price right around or at my max bid, which means that I totally wasted my time.

I can understand this as the reasoning for not sniping over just out right denying that it could work even if only every once in a while.

That's partially right. Over time, people have found the names of well known bidders through feedback on old auctions and you can use them in the advanced search on Ebay to track what that bidder is currently bidding on. For anyone that finds gems by exploiting listing mistakes or things that are not fully described in the auction description, it means that they have to wait until the very end to avoid drawing attention to their finds.

That’s some Guerrilla warfare sniping right there and yea that’s way too much of a waste of time IMO. If I happen to stumble across something not listed correctly I might try to snipe it but I not going to scan for people that scan for miss-listed items or look for miss-listed items myself.

[PROTOTYPE]

I didn't want to pay a lot for it either, only wanted the ps1 mortal kobat 3 for the jewel case version only... As it is hard to find in the wild.As to how much is too much is? To one man's garbage is one man's treasure!

[Aussie2B]

Like I said before, it's just too much work and stress for me. I don't want or need anything on eBay so badly that I'm going to halt my life in order to watch an auction just so that I can put a bid in last second. I used to do it all the time. Setting an alarm for 3 am so I wouldn't miss out, interrupting dinner with my wife so I could place a bid, dropping whatever far more important thing that I could be doing in order to try and win an auction for slightly less money just seemed absurd to me. Plus, it RARELY ever worked. Most often I either lost or won at a price right around or at my max bid, which means that I totally wasted my time.

There is a middle ground, you know. I generally try to wait as close to the end as possible, but I don't wake up in the dead of night or cancel my plans for anything important. If it's not convenient for me, then I'll bid a few hours before the end or what have you. I still find that preferable to bidding days in advance.

[understatement]

There is a middle ground, you know. I generally try to wait as close to the end as possible, but I don't wake up in the dead of night or cancel my plans for anything important. If it's not convenient for me, then I'll bid a few hours before the end or what have you. I still find that preferable to bidding days in advance.

Hell, half the time I bid from my phone I have my ebay app. set to go off five minutes before the end of an auction if I have the time I wait it down and if I don’t I might put something in then and hope that no one ups it too much, takes no more time than a text message. Personally I like being there in the last few minutes but you can remove that all to gather with a sniping site like Cornelius references.

[Cornelius]

That's what some of us are driving at; You CANNOT gather the sort of data that you're referring to. It's just not available to you, the seller, or other bidders.

No amount of "data points" that you are able to assemble would prove that sniping has given anyone an advantage.

What I'm suggesting with a statistical analysis is that if we looked at enough auctions for the same item and then looked at the subset of those auctions with a single unique bid in the last minute we could determine if there was a difference in the final price (on average, of course). I believe that with a large enough sample we would be able to see a significant difference between the two groups. This is perfectly possible with the data we have available, and the actual analysis would be pretty simple. Going through and picking it out would take a long time, though, and is not worth anyone's time.

[The 1 2 P]

However, you can see when you put in your max price and watch someone chip away at it by using the bid history. I have seen this happen enough times personally that I switched to last minute sniping at my max amount. It's frustrating to see this scenario happen:

"Okay, put in my max bid of $50, but the current high bid is only $15 with an only a bit left. It'll be a great deal if I get this at $15!"
..10 mins later
"Oh the person below increased their bid, now it's up to $25"
..3 mins later
"Now they bid it up to $28"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $31, still a good deal though"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $36"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $41.98, looks like this person really wants this"
...auction ends.
"Well I won the game at below my max price, but it's less of a good deal than it was starting out."

This is not EVERY scenario, just one I've seen play out so many time personally that I hate dealing with it. Now I just let the other person think they're in the lead for as long as they want until the last moment, then put in my max bid amount.

You just described exactly why I only snipe on ebay. During the first few years I had an account that scenario you listed happened atleast 50-70% of the time I bid on something. Me and Lockshawl(who got out of collecting a few years ago) use to always bid demo disc up much higher than they would have went for had one of us waited until the last few seconds. But eventually thats what I did. He kept bidding as soon as he saw something he wanted and I waited until the last 10 seconds and won every single time.

Today it's the samething for atleast half the stuff I want. Theres always atleast two dudes in an endless bidding war that I never take part in. I wait until the last few seconds and swoop in. Sometimes I win, sometimes I don't. And while I do understand what others were saying earlier about who ever bids the highest will win regardless of when they bid, the fact still remains that in atleast half the items I bid on I end up winning them for much less because I choose to wait until the last second to bid instead of getting into a bidding war with someone who thinks they are going to get a special prize for being the highest bidder the longest.

[wiggyx]

What I'm suggesting with a statistical analysis is that if we looked at enough auctions for the same item and then looked at the subset of those auctions with a single unique bid in the last minute we could determine if there was a difference in the final price (on average, of course). I believe that with a large enough sample we would be able to see a significant difference between the two groups. This is perfectly possible with the data we have available, and the actual analysis would be pretty simple. Going through and picking it out would take a long time, though, and is not worth anyone's time.

Still, you cannot calculate the max bid for the winner, and that's a fairly important chunk of this equation. A HUGE part of the argument is that sniping saves money. In fact, it's the ONLY argument. Without that component we have no idea whether the winner saved money or not by sniping.


For shits and giggles, here's the data from the completed listings of non-BIN loose Earthbound carts on eBay. EB is a hot title right now, so I feel that it's a good example of a game that will see lots of bidding/sniping.


(In chronological order from ending most recently to least recently)

152.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (12 bids) unique
238.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (34 bids) not unique
150.00 winning bid 3 days prior (21 bids) unique
90.00 winning bid 1 hour prior (2 bids) unique
176.00 winning bid in last 30 seconds (24 bids) unique
123.99 winning bid in last 30 seconds (16 bids) not unique
174.21 winning bid in last 30 seconds (16 bids) unique
154.00 winning bid 5 hours prior (14 bids) not unique
150.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (34 bids) unique
140.00 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
154.51 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
149.35 winning bid 2.5 hours prior (30 bids) not unique
152.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
139.39 winning bid 30 minutes prior (8 bids) not unique
132.50 winning bid 30 minutes prior (11 bids) not unique
191.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (43 bids) not unique
207.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (29 bids) not unique
170.50 winning bid 6 hours prior (35 bids) not unique
192.50 winning bid 1 hour prior (18 bids) not unique
154.51 winning bid in last 30 seconds (3 bids) unique
163.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (10 bids) unique
174.06 winning bid in last 30 seconds (9 bids) unique
179.50 winning bid 5 minutes prior (29 bids) not unique
152.50 winning bid 8 hours prior (26 bids) not unique
202.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (12 bids) unique
152.50 winning bid 3 days prior (10 bids) unique
172.50 winning bid 4 hours prior (4 bids) unique
172.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (19 bids) unique
148.15 winning bid 1 hour prior (22 bids) unique
167.50 winning bid 1.5 days prior (12 bids) not unique


Sniped - $2727.31 / 16 = $170.46 avg

Non-Sniped - $2150.89 / 14 = $153.64 avg

Granted this is a small sample size, but it definitely illustrates that sniping, at least with this title and this cross section, is not at all effective. In fact, the average price is 9% higher for the snipers.

Now this is actual empirical data, not guessing or speculation. Is it rock solid proof that sniping is useless? No, of course not. Is it an indicator that sniping for hot, retro video game titles isn't nearly as effective as many here seem to believe? I would say so.


Also, $59.99 BIN complete with box and instructions. Fucking lucky bastard.

Sonofabitch!

[Scissors]

Also, $59.99 BIN complete with box and instructions. Fucking lucky bastard.

Sonofabitch!

It appears the seller backed out and relisted for $329.99, which someone else bought immediately. It seems that buyer then resold it for $700.

[wiggyx]

It appears the seller backed out and relisted for $329.99, which someone else bought immediately. It seems that buyer then resold it for $700.

Oh damn!

I wasn't really trying to look into any more than I did. I was already pissed that I missed it. Guess I shouldn't worry about it too much though

[Jorpho]

It appears the seller backed out

Wait, what? How can one do that without incurring negative feedback?

[understatement]

Wait, what? How can one do that without incurring negative feedback?

he did get negative feedback.



I don't get his reply at all.

[wiggyx]

His reply is total BS. He's just trying to make it sound as if it's not his fault that the transaction went to shit.

Just look at this guy. Screams total D-bag.

[xelement5x]

The problem with the Earthbound data is that for me personally, sniping on highly public auctions doesn't tend to pay off. On a copy of a Mega CD game where I'm maybe competing with <5 other people it'll work fine, on an auction where there are possibly thousands watching each copy of Earthbound it doesn't make sense to me.

Highly visibility and sought after items on eBay almost always reach the average price, sniping only works for me on less high profile stuff.

However, with a high profile item it makes sense to reach the average price, or just a bit below average, sooner rather than later to discourage people from bidding on that item. Reach the "average price" early and most bidders will just move onto the next similar listing.

For example:

Earthbound auction 1 gets bidded up to $150, and since there are always plenty of copies around people stop watching that auction and turn their attention to Earthbound auction 2 that ends 3 days later than the first. Because everyone's attention is now focused on the second auction the first one doesn't get any additional bids and ends "low" at 150.

Let say the second auction stays at around $100 up to the last day because everyone is waiting to snipe it. At the last second, everyone puts their bid in and it jumps to $180. Perfect example of sniping backfiring, but it only backfires because there are a ton of people watching the item.

Either way it's all conjecture since you can't completely understand the players for every auction, but you do the best you can based on the evidence.

tl;dr - Sniping works best (but not always) for me on a low profile item.

[JSoup]

I don't know, I've never had a problem getting something on ebay by just tossing up what I'm willing to pay and calling it a night. But, then again, I'm normally buying low profit things anyway. Editions of books for this collection, a card I'm missing from that collection. Junky stuff that you hardly find people fighting over.

[understatement]

There’s no real way to track a data point there are just too many variables. Just saying that less bids equals sniping won’t work, just because item A) has only 2 bids and item B) has 32 bids doesn’t mean item A) was sniped. Say item A) starts at $100 and item B) starts at $1, more than likely item B) will be the one targeted for sniping even if it has 25+ bids and is up to $70+ at the end.

About the only way I can see to do it would be getting two people (with money to burn) one would only snipe and the other would bid early on (like 4+ days remaining) and making a list of 100+ items both must buy within a set time. Even then people would say the pool of buyers needs to be bigger but how are you going to find that many people to buy a ton of crap they don’t want?


The more I think about this the more it sounds like it would be a great Mythbusters episode.

[jb143]

You want a great deal for your collection. A reseller wants a great deal for their wallet. It's the same concept. If you feel that game would command $100 on the market, you should have placed a higher bid. Better yet, if you really wanted to be fair, you should have messaged the seller about their rare item. You're concerned with a "good" deal but what about the uninformed seller? Don't they deserve a "good" deal too by receiving closer to appraisal value for their rare item? Exactly.

So now its my job to tell the seller what a game is worth? it was a open auction that's what she was trying to find out? I still don't know what it's worth, its the first one I seen for sale. I'm really just guessing what he will sell it for. but to me it was worth a lot.The real point is it drives inflated prices on games and we all lose, unless we sell!

---------------------------------------

<from a re-seller forum>
Who here hates collectors sometimes?
Just lost a bid to one of them. Granted anybody can bid but they just want it to collect. As you can see I'm a little pissed about it.The auction was for 8 ps1 games, the seller didn't know she had a very rare game in it. I was hopping nobody else did either, I really thought that I was going to win when this collector came out of nowhere and won. It doesn't matter to them that's more valuable, they just want to collect it. I wanted it to re-sell it for profit to help feed my family. Has this happen to you?

<from a selling random stuff on eBay forum>
Who here hates collectors and re-sellers sometimes?
Just lost out some fair value profits to one of them. Granted anybody can bid but they have more knowledge about these items. As you can see I'm a little pissed about it.The auction was for 8 ps1 games, I didn't know I had a very rare game in it until afterwards. They obviously did and were hopping nobody else noticed. I just wanted to get for it what it's worth and they were taking advantage of my ignorance. Has this happened to you?

[wiggyx]

The problem with the Earthbound data is that for me personally, sniping on highly public auctions doesn't tend to pay off. On a copy of a Mega CD game where I'm maybe competing with <5 other people it'll work fine, on an auction where there are possibly thousands watching each copy of Earthbound it doesn't make sense to me.

Highly visibility and sought after items on eBay almost always reach the average price, sniping only works for me on less high profile stuff.

However, with a high profile item it makes sense to reach the average price, or just a bit below average, sooner rather than later to discourage people from bidding on that item. Reach the "average price" early and most bidders will just move onto the next similar listing.

For example:


Either way it's all conjecture since you can't completely understand the players for every auction, but you do the best you can based on the evidence.

tl;dr - Sniping works best (but not always) for me on a low profile item.

I would argue that point (again, based purely on speculation) as a Mega CD game would have a far more "hardcore" group of bidders. As a more hardcore crowd, they seem far more likely to be tech savvy and thus more likely to be snipers themselves (based on how many folks how employ the practice). Snipers against snipers seems like a total waste of time based on how everyone seems to feel about how it affords advantage over other bidders. If everyone is bidding last second, then the guy who's willing to pay the most still wins and it's not likely that he or she got some great deal on it as long as there are at least a couple of other bidders because everyone bidding last second is of course bidding the max that they're willing to pay.

You can only assume that you got a good deal because you sniped. You simply cannot prove that it did in fact give you an advantage. There simply isn't enough evidence to make any reliable data to add to the pool.

There’s no real way to track a data point there are just too many variables. Just saying that less bids equals sniping won’t work, just because item A) has only 2 bids and item B) has 32 bids doesn’t mean item A) was sniped. Say item A) starts at $100 and item B) starts at $1, more than likely item B) will be the one targeted for sniping even if it has 25+ bids and is up to $70+ at the end.

About the only way I can see to do it would be getting two people (with money to burn) one would only snipe and the other would bid early on (like 4+ days remaining) and making a list of 100+ items both must buy within a set time. Even then people would say the pool of buyers needs to be bigger but how are you going to find that many people to buy a ton of crap they don’t want?


The more I think about this the more it sounds like it would be a great Mythbusters episode.

Exactly.

There is simply no way to prove 100% either way.

This is a debate that has no resolve. For every thoughtful point that is made there is an equally well conceived counterpoint. If your bidding method works for you (i.e. you're winning items at a price that's satisfactory), then keep on keepin' on. I like my bid on day 1 method, and on the other end of the spectrum there are many of you that really like to bid in the final seconds

[jb143]

I like my bid on day 1 method, and on the other end of the spectrum there are many of you that really like to bid in the final seconds

One other important thing to consider. If you are there when the auction ends then you can pay right away and have a better chance of getting it sooner. Also, if you loose, you can immediately look for the same item and bid again. Otherwise you have to wait a week, unless you don't mind bidding on multiples of the same item just in case.

[wiggyx]

One other important thing to consider. If you are there when the auction ends then you can pay right away and have a better chance of getting it sooner. Also, if you loose, you can immediately look for the same item and bid again. Otherwise you have to wait a week, unless you don't mind bidding on multiples of the same item just in case.

That would matter if I was SERIOUSLY deal hunting, which I'm not. When I want a game that I can't buy retail I go to eBay or Amazon. I don't spend a lot of time hunting for the absolute best deals. I want a good price the same as anyone else, I'm just not willing to spend a lot of time hunting for the bestest deal EVAR! My time is worth money as well, and saving 10 or 20 bucks isn't worth an extra hour or so of hunting and bidding.

I get emails letting me know if I've won or not. Being that I check it far more often, I can usually get payment completed within an hour or so. I'm pretty sure I'm not getting my packages any later because I didn't pay immediately after winning. Either way, it's not important in the context of the debate.