video game sales WAY down in April... are we looking at a crash?

[Gamevet]

I've held off on buying many new games, because I have a decent sized backlog of current gen games I need to play through. I'm still hoping to play Mass Effect 3, but I've had MS2 sitting around for quite a long time. And I just finished up Uncharted 3, that I've had since January.

[Nebagram]

As long as the big franchises (like CoD, FIFA and Madden) keep selling there'll never be another crash. Ever. All markets go through peaks and troughs. Call me when GTA5 sells under 500k in its first month.

[WCP]

In regards to my use of "Crash". Probably shouldn't have used that word. I don't seriously believe we are going to have a Crash like the early 80's. That would be unthinkable in this day and age, but I still think we could be looking at some very troubled times for the video game market. It seems like it's mostly turned into an all or nothing market. Games either sell extremely well, or they sell horribly. Not much in-between. Triple A blockbusters are selling, but wanna-be blockbusters are bombing like never before. There is no more middle ground. You either need to be $15 or less (digital download), or you need to be a full on Triple A blockbuster type game. Lower tier games that "think" they are potential blockbusters, are suffering a bloodbath at retail.

[Bojay1997]

In regards to my use of "Crash". Probably shouldn't have used that word. I don't seriously believe we are going to have a Crash like the early 80's. That would be unthinkable in this day and age, but I still think we could be looking at some very troubled times for the video game market. It seems like it's mostly turned into an all or nothing market. Games either sell extremely well, or they sell horribly. Not much in-between. Triple A blockbusters are selling, but wanna-be blockbusters are bombing like never before. There is no more middle ground. You either need to be $15 or less (digital download), or you need to be a full on Triple A blockbuster type game. Lower tier games that "think" they are potential blockbusters, are suffering a bloodbath at retail.

Well, that's a point a lot of developers have been making in the last few years. It has nothing to do with your OP though.

[Orion Pimpdaddy]

There are many reasons crashes happen, but most of the time they come immediately after a period of uncontrolled growth, which I don't think we've had recently. In 1982, the uncontrolled growth came when four new consoles were released in a market that already had three, and everybody and their mom was suddenly making games. Same thing happened when the "tech bubble" burst in the year 2000. Here's a NASDAQ chart that shows the gigantic period of growth followed by a sudden decline:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nasdaq2.png.

Of course, the biggest crash ever, 1929, came after a large period of economic growth during the "roaring 20s." The point is, I think the future of the video game market is fine, and the current gen is going through some stagnation right now, probably because it has lasted so long. You might be right about how WiiU is going to be only supported by its Nintendo's hardcore supporters, but Nintendo's been through that before with other systems. They'll be okay, and the 3DS will most likely continue to sell well.

[Gamevet]

In regards to my use of "Crash". Probably shouldn't have used that word. I don't seriously believe we are going to have a Crash like the early 80's. That would be unthinkable in this day and age, but I still think we could be looking at some very troubled times for the video game market. It seems like it's mostly turned into an all or nothing market. Games either sell extremely well, or they sell horribly. Not much in-between. Triple A blockbusters are selling, but wanna-be blockbusters are bombing like never before. There is no more middle ground. You either need to be $15 or less (digital download), or you need to be a full on Triple A blockbuster type game. Lower tier games that "think" they are potential blockbusters, are suffering a bloodbath at retail.

Yeah. You're going to see more publishing houses either being bought out, or making smaller titles for iOS and Steam. Publishers need to stop trying to get a piece of the FPS market that is dominated by Call of Duty, Halo and the Battlefield series.

[Sunnyvale]

Yeah. You're going to see more publishing houses either being bought out, or making smaller titles for iOS and Steam. Publishers need to stop trying to get a piece of the FPS market that is dominated by Call of Duty, Halo and the Battlefield series.

But then we'd have no Gears of War or L4D!!!
No L4D.
That is all.

[kupomogli]

It seems like it's mostly turned into an all or nothing market. Games either sell extremely well, or they sell horribly. Not much in-between. Triple A blockbusters are selling, but wanna-be blockbusters are bombing like never before. There is no more middle ground. You either need to be $15 or less (digital download), or you need to be a full on Triple A blockbuster type game. Lower tier games that "think" they are potential blockbusters, are suffering a bloodbath at retail.

It's not as simple as only AAA titles selling, because there are a lot of great AAA games that sell like crap. Advertisement doesn't seem to do a damn thing for the most part. Established IPs are selling, but an established IP that hasn't clicked with the gaming community or a new IP no matter how good they are is mostly pure luck on whether it'll sell or not.

[Gamevet]

But then we'd have no Gears of War or L4D!!!
No L4D.
That is all.

Those are 3rd person shooters.

I'm talking about titles like RAGE, Vanquish, and Duke Nukem Forever.

[goatdan]

Last year, a bunch of people were talking about how down movie ticket sales were, and how this was ushering in the end of the movie theater experience.

The Avengers just made $1 billion in two weeks at the box office. Something tells me that Dark Knight Rises might make the same sort of cash. And, we have had a LOT of other big movies this year already, and a lot more coming up.

This year's box office is up almost $700 million above what it was at this point last year.

Why?

Simple -- studios made movies the public wanted to see.

Game sales were down this month compared to last month last year?

Why?

Simple -- game studios made games the public didn't want to play as much this year.

Look, the public is a fickle thing, and one of the things that so many people even in the industry don't understand is that it isn't like people go, "Wow, I don't want to see a movie this week. Well, I have $10 and nothing better to do, I'm going to go settle for one anyway." I've worked in the entertainment industry, and it is fascinating to watch how a lot of people think that is what the public does. If you don't want to see the Avengers, does that mean that you're automatically going to go see The Three Stooges? Absolutely not.

If you aren't interested in playing Prototype 2, it isn't like you should be expected to go drop $60 on some other new game because it's April. You'll buy something when it interests you.

And, as for people complaining as usual that no new IP can get any traction, let's see here... ALL of these were new series for the latest generation:

Prototype
LA Noire
Alan Wake
Red Dead Redemption
Left 4 Dead
Uncharted
Resistance Fall of Man
Gears of War
Bioshock
Mass Effect

...and that is just the ones I can think of offhand, only thinking of the PS3 and 360. Yeah, not every new IP hits with all markets, but honestly, not every IP deserves to hit with all markets, and that market changes and changes quickly, so you should never expect a 'sure fire hit' to actually be a sure fire hit until it has landed.

Alas, so many analysts and industry executives feel that entertainment is like food -- well, if you don't eat a taco for lunch, you still gotta eat *something* -- and so a lot of the analysis out there is going to flip between doom and gloom and roses all the time.

[The 1 2 P]

Those are 3rd person shooters.

Left 4 Dead is actually a fps series, not 3rd person

[Sunnyvale]

Those are 3rd person shooters.

I'm talking about titles like RAGE, Vanquish, and Duke Nukem Forever.

Ok, you caught me on GoW, I never got past the opening story. But The 12P got you on L4D...

Left 4 Dead is actually a fps series, not 3rd person

It's THE FPS series.

[Press_Start]

And, as for people complaining as usual that no new IP can get any traction, let's see here... ALL of these were new series for the latest generation:

Prototype
LA Noire
Alan Wake
Red Dead Redemption
Left 4 Dead
Uncharted
Resistance Fall of Man
Gears of War
Bioshock
Mass Effect

Thing is the ones you listed are mostly shooters/GTA-oneoffs that have already saturated the market in one form or another, which's no problem if you're the guy making serious coin off them, unless developers are getting sick and tired of them too.

[G-Boobie]

Thing is the ones you listed are mostly shooters/GTA-oneoffs that have already saturated the market in one form or another, which's no problem if you're the guy making serious coin off them, unless developers are getting sick and tired of them too.

Sounds like all genres of video games ever. Space Invaders clones, Pac Man clones, and Pong clones in the arcade days, mascot platformers and shmups on the 8 and 16 bit era, fighting games, Japanese RPGs, RTS games, FPS titles on both PC and console, sandbox games, World of Warcraft style MMOs were rampant for a while, there are something like seven or eight DOTA clones out there now with more on the way, every game has a horde mode now for some reason, there isn't a number large enough to count the number of Farmville clones available on every platform ever, and that goes double for tower defense... Innovation tends to come through iteration of safe, provably profitable foundations. And when a game DOES do something new and exciting and popular, everyone copies them. Since the dawn of time, and throughout all media; not just games.

And so what of it? I get tired of people whining that all that comes out anymore are Call of Duty clones and GTA clones, because not only is that bullshit, but the nostalgia that usually lurks behind the sentiment is a view of the past through the rosiest of glasses. In fifteen years we'll have to listen to the CoD generation whine about the exact same thing, defaming whatever is popular and reminiscing about how better everything was back in their day. Nostalgia is as dangerous a drug as anything that's out there. It's one thing to fondly remember an era you were in love with; its entirely another to allow that to warp your perception of the present.

[jonebone]

Glad to see that people already made the point of April 2012 just being a slack month in terms of good games. If you think the game industry is crashing, wait until you see the Diablo III sales numbers, lol. Probably record highs across the board, so I fully expect a "OMG, The Game Industry is Stronger than EVER BEFORE!" post shortly thereafter.

And Red Dead Redemption was not a new IP series on this generation, it's the sequel to Red Dead Revolved from PS2 / Xbox, which is last generation.

However, RDR is one of the best games I've played on the 360, they did everything right. You can argue it's just a GTA clone, but I'd much rather play RDR than GTA anyday. It was a phenomenal game.

[Gamevet]

Ok, you caught me on GoW, I never got past the opening story. But The 12P got you on L4D...



It's THE FPS series.

I was thinking of Dead Rising. I've never played L4D, but zombie games get a free pass. Who doesn't love shooting them?

[Robocop2]

Figure-wise and I know I can't speak for everyone but,

of the games mentioned that released last April; I bought two of them because I had intrest in them,
the four mentioned for this April; I have little to no intrest in owning.

Also, what about other games that released around that time frame? Seems kind of difficult to base the entire industry on 4 games that released in a given month when there are so many other games out there.

It doesn't have to be AAA title to sell well, it just has to be intreseting and/or good. The populace at large may be differnt but that's how I see it. It has little to do with economy methinks and more to do with intrest. There are plenty of things coming down the pipe that I want they're just didn't come out in April this year. Wait until the holiday season and see what sales are like, then we can discuss a crash...maybe.

[Bojay1997]

Sounds like all genres of video games ever. Space Invaders clones, Pac Man clones, and Pong clones in the arcade days, mascot platformers and shmups on the 8 and 16 bit era, fighting games, Japanese RPGs, RTS games, FPS titles on both PC and console, sandbox games, World of Warcraft style MMOs were rampant for a while, there are something like seven or eight DOTA clones out there now with more on the way, every game has a horde mode now for some reason, there isn't a number large enough to count the number of Farmville clones available on every platform ever, and that goes double for tower defense... Innovation tends to come through iteration of safe, provably profitable foundations. And when a game DOES do something new and exciting and popular, everyone copies them. Since the dawn of time, and throughout all media; not just games.

And so what of it? I get tired of people whining that all that comes out anymore are Call of Duty clones and GTA clones, because not only is that bullshit, but the nostalgia that usually lurks behind the sentiment is a view of the past through the rosiest of glasses. In fifteen years we'll have to listen to the CoD generation whine about the exact same thing, defaming whatever is popular and reminiscing about how better everything was back in their day. Nostalgia is as dangerous a drug as anything that's out there. It's one thing to fondly remember an era you were in love with; its entirely another to allow that to warp your perception of the present.

Strongly agree with this. As an early home computer gamer, I remember almost every game I ever had on the Apple II and later Commodore 64 being either a straight up clone or built upon a mechanic taken from another game. Despite that fact, there were many great games released on both platforms and that has continued on every platform I have ever owned since. People that lament the decline of creativity and quality in gaming just don't open themselves up to everything that's out there. The gaming landscape has never been as rich or as diverse as it is today and while the platforms and delivery methods may change, gaming is definitely getting better every day and will continue to grow and prosper for many, many decades to come.

[goatdan]

Thing is the ones you listed are mostly shooters/GTA-oneoffs that have already saturated the market in one form or another, which's no problem if you're the guy making serious coin off them, unless developers are getting sick and tired of them too.

Thing is -- the general public is buying them. ALL of those series have been hits, so the market clearly isn't saturated.

And honestly, the developers are hired to develop the titles their company wants them to make. If they don't want to make shooters, then they need to either convince that company to do something else, or to go somewhere else. If those games don't sell and shooters do though, guess what the money is going to be on? If those games are selling, and people are making them, it doesn't matter. And they are.

Oh, and jonebone - you're right, Red Dead Revolver was so different that I don't even associate the two in my head, but you can say that Red Dead Revolver was not a new series. The other nine or so stand, however, and there are lots of other examples - new IP can still break through if it is done correctly.

[Genesaturn]

I get tired of news outlets doing the whole doom and gloom thing with any industry. Oh no game sales aren't as high as last year! do we sense a crash!??? oh no, florida harvested 4% less oranges last year! are we in for a orange juice famine!???

It's kind of ridiculous, and I get tired of people who obviously don't even play games, pretending they know the game industry and it's future. Game sales have been down most of the last year. It's not because people aren't buying games, but there hasn't been as many games worth buying. Especially when you have a system in the Wii that has been mostly dead weight the past year with the exception of Zelda and only a few new ..good..releases.