2002 was a brutal year

[zmeston]

I just received the premiere issue of "gameSTATE" (what is the deal with the game industry and capitalization abuse, anyway?), a co-production of the UK's Future Publishing and RenderWare, they of the 3D middleware engine as seen in Grand Theft Auto III/Vice City. The cover story was a 2002 year in review that brought up some really depressing facts (which I hadn't seen all in one place before):

"Of all the [publicly traded] US and European companies, only one, Take 2, saw its share price rise during 2002. Even EA...suffered a 10% fall, while the likes of Ubi Soft and Midway were down about 70%, and Infogrames' value was hit a vast 86%."

"Acclaim has taken a beating. It's closed two of its internal studios and is posting significant charges due to its internal reorganization, while its own auditor has suggested current cashflow problems pose a question mark over its ability to continue as a going concern. This was a company that saw its share price rise tenfold during 2001. Similarly, 3DO has only survived thanks to further investment from founder Trip Hawkins, while BAM! fired half its global workforce and shut down all its internal development."

"A string of publishers like Sega and THQ have downgraded their projections for 2003. Activision also lowered its 2003 prediction by 12% citing weaker than expected performance of key brands like Tony Hawk's Pro Skater. It accounted for 44% of revenue last year."

"On average it costs $3-5 million to develop a game, on top of which a publisher typically spends a further $6-10 million on manufacturing, marketing, and distribution."

"Despite the growing mass-market cachet of gaming, the newbies are casual gamers -- they buy fewer units. The average number of games per PS2, called the tie ratio, was 5.5 in September 2002, according to Sony. The comparable figure at a similar point in the PS1's hardware cycle was over seven."

"Analysts establish that while the average cost of developing a game has doubled, sales are only up 50%, and those sales are concentrated within the top 10% of best-selling games."

"EA's control of the big Christmas movie licenses, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter, all but sucked dry the lucrative December sales period for the the competition."

"There's no question that Sony has dominated the opposition over the past year, leaving Nintendo and Microsoft to fight for the scraps of joint third place."

And then a list of 2002's ten best-selling U.S. games: seven for the PS2 (GTA:VC and GTA3 in 1st and 2nd place), one (Super Mario Advance 2, 4th place!) for the GBA, one (Halo, 9th place) for the Xbox, and one (Super Mario Sunshine, 10th place) for the GameCube.

As a guy who makes his living writing about the game industry, it's no wonder I've come to embrace classic videogames: they help me to forget the effed-up state of modern videogames.

-- Z.

[digitalpress]

I read that too - it's a pretty nice magazine format, I like the concept - but those highlights/lowlights didn't surprise me very much. I lived through 2002's financial woes, Mrs. Santulli lost her job in October and hasn't found steady work since. I even had to lay off one of my employees who was both a decent performer and a friend because of something called "corporate fitness".

2003 will be better.

Hey Zach, I didn't see anything about strategy guide sales in there, but it seemed that this area of gaming actually GREW in 2002. That may not translate to sales or even success, just an observation. Anything you can add to that?

[zmeston]

Hey Zach, I didn't see anything about strategy guide sales in there, but it seemed that this area of gaming actually GREW in 2002. That may not translate to sales or even success, just an observation. Anything you can add to that?

2002 was tough for one strategy-guide publisher: Versus Books, which croaked as I was in the midst of writing their official guide for The Getaway (which was sold off to Prima). Now the market belongs to Prima Games and BradyGAMES -- and why these book publishers have "Games" in their names, I'll never know -- with the occasional PC guide from Sybex.

Brady has the bigger games, including exclusive deals with Rockstar (I think the GTA3 guide has undergone at least a dozen printings) and Square (RPG guides almost always sell well); Prima has slightly better distribution (they're an imprint of the monolithic St. Martin's Press).

There were more strategy guides in 2002 mostly because there were more GAMES in 2002, or at least more guide-worthy ones. Every guide I wrote in '02, with the exception of Men in Black II: Alien Escape -- which was 96 pages of variations on the sentence "Run forward and shoot!" -- had a reason to exist. As for the ones that don't, they're usually cranked out to fulfill contractual obligations, or to keep game publishers happy.

Strategy guides pay much less than they used to, incidentally; used to be royalties, now it's flat fees, for various reasons I won't bore you with. (I at least hope the GTA3 author was thrown a bonus on top of what was probably a $8K-$10K fee, because that guide has undoubtedly made a million or two for Brady.)

-- Z.

[digitalpress]

Strategy guides pay much less than they used to, incidentally; used to be royalties, now it's flat fees, for various reasons I won't bore you with. (I at least hope the GTA3 author was thrown a bonus on top of what was probably a $8K-$10K fee, because that guide has undoubtedly made a million or two for Brady.)

Actually it wouldn't bore me at all.

[zmeston]

Strategy guides pay much less than they used to, incidentally; used to be royalties, now it's flat fees, for various reasons I won't bore you with. (I at least hope the GTA3 author was thrown a bonus on top of what was probably a $8K-$10K fee, because that guide has undoubtedly made a million or two for Brady.)

Actually it wouldn't bore me at all.

Heh! You asked for it, dude.

Reason #1: Rusel DeMaria, the author of the Myst strategy guide (and my former boss), made a small fortune thanks to his royalty arrangement, and spoiled it for everyone else. As of two or three years ago, the Myst guide had sold 800,000+ copies, and it's probably closing in on a million by now. Assuming Rusel gets a 10-15% cut of the profit for each $20 guide, which was pretty standard until the mid-'90s, he's easily reaped one or two MEEELion dollars. That's one or two mil the book company would much rather keep.

Reason #2: Game companies used to be satisfied with a small percentage of the profits for a guide; now they want cash up front, demand a considerable chunk of the profits, and sometimes even issue multiple "official" designations for maximum exploitation. For example, The Wind Waker has multiple guides; one from Nintendo's own Nintendo Power, one from Prima, and one from Brady. Nintendo doesn't really care who sells guides, as long as they're getting a cut. (Unofficial guides don't exist anymore, as Nintendo and other companies figured out to sue the hell out of anyone who published them.)

Reason #3: Tons of freelancers and GameFAQs amateurs. While I'd like to think that my decade-plus of experience gives me an edge, it doesn't. Hell, I co-authored Prima's very first videogame strategy guide back in '90, but the employees there either don't know or don't care. There are many people out there who'll write strategy guides for little or no financial compensation, so if I'm offered a guide, I take it regardless of the fee. If I say no, there are literally dozens of other authors who'll say yes.

Did I mention that freelancing is a stressful career?

-- Z.

[omnedon]

[Mayhem]

I was gonna ask how the advent of the net and GameFAQs had affected your business... guess I don't need to now

Mainly because of the advantages an electronic document has over a printed one (a search facility for starters, being able to easily update is another)...

[zmeston]

I was gonna ask how the advent of the net and GameFAQs had affected your business... guess I don't need to now

Mainly because of the advantages an electronic document has over a printed one (a search facility for starters, being able to easily update is another)...

Well, the Net and GameFAQs have affected me personally, but they haven't really affected strategy-guide sales; game books are selling roughly as well as they ever have. There are advantages to electronic guides, but just as many advantages to printed guides: portability (the people who use strategy guides want hassle-free, quick-and-dirty solutions -- they don't want to print out massive FAQs), exclusive/insider info (maps, stats) from the game developers, and professional editors and proofreaders.

The best printed guides are much more than walkthroughs, as publishers know they have to offer something above and beyond what people can get from GameFAQs. For example, my Lunar 2 guide for WD (which damn near killed me) was a walkthrough/artbook/jokebook/stickerbook/celebration of all that is Lunar.

Basically, what it all means is that I have to work harder for less money. Not that I'm complaining, mind you, as I'd love to have this crazy "job" forever. It's just not a career for the faint of heart or sound of mind.

-- Z.

[stonecutter]

Personally I would rather havea bought guide any day over an electronic one. That being said I try not to use guides unless I absolutely must and I do not buy many. Yesterday I did buy one and could not believe the price. I got the Steel Battalion guide from Electronics Boutique for $9.19 CDN... can you believe that! Thats crazy. Although I must say it is not one of the better guides I have ever seen. I thought they could do a lot better and add more types of information as well. So it was a let down from that perspective, but
at the price i payed I can't complain too much.

[Eternal Champion]

That article really is depressing...I too am a classic gamer with no modern system.
It must be said, though, that the late '80s to mid-'90s were no less cut-throat. When the Genesis came out, Nintendo had 90% monopoly on the market.
Nowadays the situation is a little different, of course. There are several consoles. But what is it about the console market where competitors are so far distant from the dominant seller? It seems to me that most people are casual players and probably have one console.
As for games, I think that isn't really new...thinking back to the NES, SNES, and Genny, LOTS of great games went unnoticed, because a select few games were super hyped--the big franchises, the company characters. It would be interesting to see game sales numbers from years back then, like 1991-92 for Genesis, say 1994 for SNES...
It seems game consumer habits have basically always been like this.

Zmeston--The case of freelance guide writing sounds A LOT like freelance work-for-hire for DC Comics and Marvel, if you know anything about the comics industry. Your explanation didn't bore me at all!
Also, it seems that guides are kept in print for a short time, or some guides have low print runs. What I'm getting at is why some older guides, like Phantasy Star IV, or Chrono Trigger, are so hard to find.

[orrimarrko]

Great topic - thanks for the info!

[zmeston]

But what is it about the console market where competitors are so far distant from the dominant seller?

If we could figure it out in this thread, we'd be geniuses... and we'd be fools for giving away information that companies would gladly pay millions for. Heh.

As I perceive it, the Genesis/Super NES era was the only two-horse race in videogame history -- and the SNES won at the wire with the sweet eye candy of the DKC series, while Sega stumbled / bumbled / fumbled with the Sega CD and 32X. Otherwise, it's always been a pride of lions (2600, NES, PS1, PS2) and a herd of limping wildebeest.

How close or not close was the 2600 / Intellivision race? Someone here's gotta know.

As for games, I think that isn't really new...thinking back to the NES, SNES, and Genny, LOTS of great games went unnoticed, because a select few games were super hyped--the big franchises, the company characters. It would be interesting to see game sales numbers from years back then, like 1991-92 for Genesis, say 1994 for SNES...

It would be VERY interesting, wouldn't it? I forget when NPD/TRSTS started tracking videogame sales, but it was a relevation when I first looked at the charts and discovered the vast ocean of difference between what I thought was popular and what really was.

One thing I miss about being a Working Designs employee is being able to peek at the hard sales data, for which NPD charges a goodly sum. I'll never forget the first PS2 chart, which had Madden selling 1:1 with hardware, SSX selling 1:2, and everything else selling about 1:15. WD's PS2 launch game, Gungriffon Blaze, was the second-worst selling launch title, outranking only that billiards game.

Zmeston--The case of freelance guide writing sounds A LOT like freelance work-for-hire for DC Comics and Marvel, if you know anything about the comics industry. Your explanation didn't bore me at all!

I'm glad to hear that! I'm always afraid of becoming a boring and/or self-obsessed twit when I ramble about myself. (The majority of videogame journalists fall into this category, alas; their egos lead them to confuse having a more informed opinion than the average gamer with having a more IMPORTANT opinion than the average gamer.)

Also, it seems that guides are kept in print for a short time, or some guides have low print runs. What I'm getting at is why some older guides, like Phantasy Star IV, or Chrono Trigger, are so hard to find.

Heck, my Lunar 2 guide is a hot ticket on eBay; it goes for like $30-$35 when it shows up. I wish I'd kept my box of complimentary copies instead of giving them away to my damn "friends"! Because it was such a huge and expensive book to produce (300+ pages and hardcover), and because it shipped roughly two months after the game (a HUGE no-no in the retail world), it received a single tiny print run, and sold out almost instantly.

It's been my experience that the only strategy guides to get second/third/fourth print runs are the ones for triple-A and/or "evergreen" games. Like, my crappy Zelda: A Link to the Past guide was reprinted several times over the years, eventually selling around 150,000 copies. I got about eight years' worth of royalty checks out of it, which was nice; one would always seem to show up right around the time I was preparing to join the ranks of the homeless.(My Super Mario World guide did about 100,000 copies, but every other guide I've written has sold anywhere from 3K to 40K.)

It takes a certain number of back-orders to justify the expense of a follow-up printing, so perhaps the PSIV and Chrono Trigger guides just didn't quite reach that point. Total speculation, of course.

[Eternal Champion]

It takes a certain number of back-orders to justify the expense of a follow-up printing, so perhaps the PSIV and Chrono Trigger guides just didn't quite reach that point. Total speculation, of course.

Z, I'm sure that's it. I wasn't really paying much attention to any video games in 1994 except MKII, but I remember PSIV coming out, but it was barely a blip on the screen. Chrono Trigger, though, I remember being hyped. But again, CT probably didn't sell like Zelda, which means that the guides probably didn't sell much, and the print run was probably low anyway.

I HAVE seen the pack-in Phantasy Star II guide SCANNED on the web somewhere...I wish there were charitible souls with the PSIV guide that would do that...Hell, I'd even pay to download it...

You worked at Working Designs? Remind me of some of their games...
It's cool to interact on these boards with people from the biz!!

[bargora]

Ah, if you want to know what U.S. games a company published, then you can always check the Psychopedia! Click the "Rarity Lists" link at the top of this page, and look near the top of the destination page. The Psychopedia lists the following games by Working Designs:

Arc the Lad Collection PlayStation
Elemental Gearbolt ( + ) PlayStation
Lunar 2: Eternal Blue PlayStation
Lunar: Silver Star Story PlayStation
Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete PlayStation
RayCrisis: Series Termination PlayStation
RayStorm PlayStation
Silhouette Mirage PlayStation
Thunder Force V: Perfect System ( + ) PlayStation
Vanguard Bandits PlayStation
Albert Odyssey: Legend of Eldean Saturn
Dragon Force Saturn
Iron Storm Saturn
Magic Knight Rayearth Saturn
Sega Ages Saturn
Shining Wisdom Saturn
Lunar: Eternal Blue ( + ) Sega CD
Lunar: The Silver Star ( + ) Sega CD
Popful Mail ( + ) Sega CD
Vay Sega CD
Cadash Turbografx-16
[CD] Cosmic Fantasy 2Third-Person Real-Time Turbografx-16
[CD] Exile Turbografx-16
[CD] Exile: Wicked Phenomenon Turbografx-16
Parasol Stars ( + ) Turbografx-16
[CD] Vasteel Turbografx-16

To that you can add the aforementioned Gungriffon Blaze for PS2, as well as Silpheed: The Lost Planet (also PS2). I'm not sure what Working Designs has published for N64, DC, GCN, or Xbox.

[zmeston]

Z, I'm sure that's it. I wasn't really paying much attention to any video games in 1994 except MKII, but I remember PSIV coming out, but it was barely a blip on the screen. Chrono Trigger, though, I remember being hyped. But again, CT probably didn't sell like Zelda, which means that the guides probably didn't sell much, and the print run was probably low anyway.

I recklessly speculate that the $80 PSIV was a victim of sticker shock, and that Chrono Trigger was only medium-profile because Square hadn't yet been launched into the U.S. mainstream by FF7.

I HAVE seen the pack-in Phantasy Star II guide SCANNED on the web somewhere...I wish there were charitible souls with the PSIV guide that would do that...Hell, I'd even pay to download it...

I loved that pack-in guide, and I loved that game, although I'm sure the older, jaded me would bag on its translation.

You worked at Working Designs? Remind me of some of their games...It's cool to interact on these boards with people from the biz!!

I wrote the localizations of a half-dozen RPGs before and during my tenure as WD's "Vice-President of Localization" from April '98 to March '01: Albert Odyssey, Alundra, Magic Knight Rayearth, Lunar: SSSC, Lunar 2: EBC, and Vanguard Bandits. They are VERY liberal (but literate!) localizations, and many hardcore otaku wish me dead because of them. I'm only kind of kidding.

I also wrote three official WD strategy guides, worked on the infamous Ghaleon punching puppet, contributed a tiny bit of text to Silhouette Mirage (along with a horrific voiceover cameo), and wrote the blurb copy on the back of eight or nine games.

I also made a cameo appearance in The Ignition Factor for SNES, and am listed in the credits of Way of the Warrior, but I've officiallly crossed over into the boring/self-obsessed zone, so I'll shut up now.

-- Z.

[zmeston]

Ah, if you want to know what U.S. games a company published, then you can always check the Psychopedia! Click the "Rarity Lists" link at the top of this page, and look near the top of the destination page. The Psychopedia lists the following games by Working Designs:

it hurts me that none of the games I worked on are worthy of the magical + symbol, but c'est la vie. Heh. I totally agree with the + for Elemental Gearbolt; that's one of the best light-gun games ever, with a KILLER orchestral soundtrack (long before Michael Giacchino's Medal of Honor scores) that should've won a buttload of awards, but didn't.

To that you can add the aforementioned Gungriffon Blaze for PS2, as well as Silpheed: The Lost Planet (also PS2). I'm not sure what Working Designs has published for N64, DC, GCN, or Xbox.

WD never published nothin' for N64 or DC, never will publish for Xbox (company prez Victor Ireland has repeatedly slammed Microsoft in print and on Usenet), and will probably never publish for GCN (there's nothing to localize). WD was working on Goemon for PS2, but Sony rejected it as being too dated, so their only current projects are Growlanser II and III, a couple of 2D strategy/RPGs for the PS2.

-- Z.

[Griking]

I've always looked at walkthroughs and guides as "last resorts" when I'm stuck in a game. I'd much rather suffer for a week trying to figure out a problem myself than to just read the answer from a book. What's the point of playing if I'm just gonna follow a script with a guide no less?

It's even more annoying when I see Gamestop pushing guides on me at the time of purchase. Christ, let me at least TRY the game first people. Same goes for the magazones that have the strategy guides before the game is even released. I mean, WTF?