Originally Posted by portnoyd
Maybe I'm not understanding your point but what is this braveheart69 actually doing wrong? How is it shilling if you're bidding on soneone else's auction or are you suggesting that Braveheart69 is the same person as stickmans_onlinestuff?
Yup. and I remember clearly when the people around here would deny that eBay sets the value of what a game is worth. Almost EVERYONE who resells items will check to see what an item sells for on eBay before selling it in their local store. Pawn shops do it, consignment shops do it, Goodwills do it and you know damned well that most of the people at flea markets do it. Now you can argue that the prices that they reference aren't accurate, (I like to point out to my local Goodwill when they put a print out of an eBay auction to show an item's value that nobody actually bid on the auction that they're referencing) but they're what people base their prices on.
We'll just have to disagree on this point. You're talking about mass market items that had print runs in the millions in many cases. People will be finding stashes of games for many, many years to come. Unlike old comics and baseball cards where distributors and to a greater extent regular people would have thrown them out because of the perception they were worthless and just had no purpose taking up space in a home or warehouse, it's a lot harder for someone to throw away old consoles and games. You can go to any swap meet or thrift store in the US and I guarantee you will find old video games. You can't say the same thing about baseball cards or comic books. Another part of it is that the general public is now aware that baseball cards and comics can be valuable. Despite Pawn Stars and a few other sources promoting the idea that video games are super valuable, I would argue that the general public has no idea of the current values and as such, they aren't digging through closets and attics to dump this stuff on the market just yet. Once video game collecting really gets mass publicity, there will be massive amounts of new stock discovered, I guarantee it.
As long as there are interested collectors, it's possible that prices will increase or at least remain stable. The problem right now is that stuff that really isn't all that rare is going for crazy amounts of money. Older and rarer stuff on platforms like the 2600 is either stable or has decreased in price. I believe it's because just like toys, video games are cyclical and depend on the personal experiences of the people who collect them. As more and more 2600 collectors age and loose interest, prices will continue to fall. The same will happen with the NES because the reality is that Nintendo has carried forward very few of its older IPs other than the obvious ones like Mario, etc...There is simply little current connection to much of the rest of the NES library, so right now demand is being driven almost exclusively by adults who owned the NES as kids. That generation will age and die out eventually and the cycle will repeat.
Thank you my friend for the response I was looking for, also for showing the collecting world what your modus operandi is. Take Care.
I'm not saying the mass produced items of today will go up and up. What I am saying is that because there are mass produced items a market will exist for the rarest most desirable items of the past. Few people want Action Comics #1 because they remember reading it as a child. They want it because Superman has become an icon and the character lives on in movies and popular culture. I would argue that videogames today have a bigger impact on children and society than combic books ever had. They have a huge share of the marketplace and you will meet few people young or old who will have no idea who Mario or Sonic are.
Many 2600 items have fallen in price and I'd expect to continue to see some of this except for the rarest and most desirable items in top condition. I wouldn't ever worry about losing value on a complete Eli's Ladder.
I agree, but if you look at what is commanding the highest prices on the NES right now, it's not necessarily the "rarest" games, it's common stuff in the mintiest sealed condition. I find it hard to believe that games of that type are going to continue to go beyond the thousands of dollars they are currently commanding. There are just too many copies out there and not enough collectors with those kinds of funds long term. Indeed, unlike comics and baseball cards, the combination of acidic plastics, metals and paper will likely result in even properly stored video games not having the longevity of comics or baseball cards simply because there is no real means of preserving a sealed game long term. I would suspect that people will be much more interested in mint complete copies over time simply because the components can be separated and individually preserved.
I would also note that video games started to be collected much earlier in relative terms than baseball cards or comics. Most of the research I have read indicates that serious comic book collecting didn't really start until the early 1970s, some 40 years after the "modern" comic books of the 1930s were released. It took another decade or so for comic collecting to go truly mainstream and by the 90s, it had largely slowed back down again to a fraction of the 1980s levels. In video games, it took maybe half as long meaning that for at least half of the history of video games, people have been collecting them and keeping them pretty well preserved. That means there is a lot out there in really nice shape even if there are fewer video game collectors than comic collectors overall.
I have no doubt that video games have had a significant societal impact, but that doesn't necessarily mean all or even most of those kids will grow up to be collectors. With digital versions of older games widely available and lots of other entertainment options out there, fewer people owning their own homes resulting in less space for collectibles and frankly, most gamers just not caring much about older games, the pump is primed for a pricing correction once this current bubble bursts.
No it doesn't mean all those kids will grow up to be collectors but I suspect there are more potential videogame collectors than there are for comicbooks and baseball cards. I would guess that more kids play Marvel Alliance than read Xmen combic books and do kids even buy baseball cards anymore?
A few of the NES black box games are common to find. Pinball and Golf for example could easily crash but some of those others with 1st pressings are insanely rare to find sealed. Any blackbox with a flagship character like Mario or Donkey Kong should be just fine no matter what the price is currently.
Check ebay right now and count how many copies of Amazing Spiderman #1 are for sale right now. It is fairly common with multiple copies for sale at any given moment. Still a top graded copy can break 100k and even lower graded copies do pretty well from year after year. An item doesn't have to be insanely rare if it is a desired item esp if in is in top condition.
I don't know about that. My five year old nephew plays video games now, but everything he has ever played has been on an iPad and has never come on physical media. He also could care less about Mario since most of his TV watching involves stuff on various Disney channels and who knows if he will ever get a 3DS or WiiU. With mobile devices rapidly becoming equal in capabilities to dedicated portables, I suspect within one more generation Nintendo and other companies will simply be in the software business if they even exist at all. I also think the next generation of gamers is going to be far less into collecting physical "stuff" the same way current consumers have significantly cut back on buying new release DVDs and PC gamers have largely adopted digital downloading for new game purchases. I mean how many people collect CDs or records today? It's a lot less than five or ten years ago and considering most people are music fans of one sort or another, it would seem like the population of music collectors would be growing, but as a vinyl collector myself, I can tell you for certain that's not the case at all.
Sealed games are something that won't continue to appreciate long term simply because they decay over time. Have you ever seen old records or even toys with shrink wrap older than a few decades? They have a yellow or brown tinge and the paper and colors start to discolor. It's just not a permanent thing no matter how carefully you try to protect it. I myself am guilty of being a sealed collector, but I would never pay a premium for sealed stuff simply because I know it can't last over the long haul. People spending thousands for graded games are in for a sad reality 20 years from now when their plastic cases are filled with brown and sticky wrap and boxes that have begun to cave in. There's a reason libraries and museums which house software collections insist on removing the wrap. Plastic is very volatile because ultimately it's a petroleum product and it reacts with paper, glue, dyes, metal, etc...all of which are used in the printing and manufacturing processes for cartridge and disc based video games.
It doesn't matter what type of gaming he does. I would guess he plays more games than he reads comic books or flips baseball cards etc. It won't matter if consoles go by the way side. I feel that anyone interested in videogame history will be interested in the originals.
Speaking of losing out to digital media here is an article on a famous collectable Beatles record. I've linked the article below but here is the part I think you may find the most interesting.
http://www.thebeatlesrarity.com/2011...butcher-cover/So exactly how much are these butcher cover albums worth?: The 2007 (6th) edition of Price Guide For The Beatles American Records by Perry Cox and Frank Daniels gives us the following figures:
1) First state mono in near mint condition: $4000
2) First state mono promotional copy in near mint condition (w/Promotional Copy – Not For Sale stamp): $5000
3) First state stereo copy in near mint condition: $12,000
4) Second state (paste-over) mono copy in near mint condition: $800
5) Second state (paste-over) stereo copy in near mint condition: $1500
6) Third state (peeled) mono copy in near mint condition: $800
7) Third state (peeled) stereo copy in near mint condition: $1500
Of course, these figures are just guidelines, and to be honest, seem to me to be quite low in comparison with some recent sales I have seen. In the case of first and second state copies, if the albums are still sealed (i.e. unopened) in their original shrink wrap they can bring several times the price listed above.
----edit-------
Here is a related article on a stash of 24 sealed butcher albums that were discovered. I am not a record collector but it seems that with this particular issue having it still sealed is a good thing not a bad thing.
Over the years there have been many great finds for Beatles record collectors, but probably the most significant was the discovery ten years ago of what ended up to be twenty-four original sealed first state Butcher cover albums.It's hard to believe that it's been 8 years since the above information was written. It may be even harder to believe that during this time the value of premium butcher covers has more than tripled. The market value of the 24 Livingston butcher covers is now approaching an astonishing one million dollars!! Record prices of $85,000 for a stereo copy and $44,000 were set a couple of years ago. It looks like the sky is going to be the limit...
http://www.rarebeatles.com/album2/discog/livleter.htm
Last edited by Buyatari; 04-18-2012 at 02:11 AM.
But how many gamers really care about the history of games enough to go through the work of tracking down the original console and games? How willing are they going to be to do the work and spend the money to do so if the games are easily downloaded for low cost in near perfect versions? I'm sorry, but I know a lot of video game collectors nowadays who are open to buying digital copies because of money and more importantly space. Not everyone cares about physically inserting a cartridge or looking at a box or label.
My nephew actually watches more TV than anything else and he plays a lot of sports and builds legos and plays with lots of different action figures and other toys, just like a lot of kids. Video games are important and lots of kids play them, but it's not even close to the level it was when I was a kid when there was no such thing as hundreds of channels, DVDs, streaming media, the Internet and dozens of other things for even very young kids to do. Heck, most parents I know are steering their kids into other activities nowadays and frankly I know more parents that regularly play video games than their kids.
On the Beatles stuff, I'm not seeing the relevance. The Butcher Cover was not a mass produced item that was widely available. It's value is derived almost exclusively from its rarity and how out of character it seemed with the previous images of the band and what mainstream artists were putting on picture covers in that era. Similarly, the vast majority of even first pressing Beatles albums are not crazy valuable simply because so many were pressed and the music can still be purchased in a form identical to or in some cases better than it's original release format for a fraction of what it cost new. It doesn't change the fact that people aren't exactly flocking to the vinyl collecting hobby nor are masses of new Beatles collectors coming on the scene. I would also note that when I was collecting Beatles stuff and vinyl, the Butcher Cover was always in the thousands of dollars for a nice copy. It's not like these values suddenly exploded and they have certainly seen ups and downs in the past 20 years. I also have significant doubts that shrink wrap is going to last for decades, especially since most collectors don't have anything nearing a stable climate controlled environment in which to store their sealed items.
Like I said, I have no doubt that over time there will be some truly rare and valuable video games, but if you're considering this momentary spike in the value of a very small set of NES games mostly resulting from a handful of collectors with more money than sense to be the start of continuing growth in pricing, I am positive you are going to be very disappointed in a few years.
Last edited by Bojay1997; 04-18-2012 at 02:31 AM.
I'll be honest and tell you that I don't know this one five year old child. My stance on children and videogames still stands. Children spend more time playing them and parents spend more money buying them than they do any other hobby that I am aware of. The means may change if things go digital but gaming itself will not go away any time soon.
I know nothing of record collectors so when you posted that shrinkwrap was a bad thing for records I did a google search and found that article. In those articles and a few others I found after it was clear that having this particular album still sealed made that record much more valuable. The Beatles butcher album was recalled in 1966 and being about 20 years older than sealed NES games I thought it was relevant because you stated in 20 years all sealed games would be crap. So now we have something that is 20 years older than the selaed NES games we are talking about and it is much more valuable if it is still sealed.
You realize that many of these graded games are now 25+ years old at this point? But magically in another 20 years, the plastic will be so yellowed / brown / sticky that they look like big piles of crap? You can certainly have that opinion, but I think that's laughable at best. These games have survived for decades in poor climates like attics / basements / closets that are conducive to mold / mildew. Some games have surely come from smoking households as well, yet the smell is often worse than any yellowing.
Just reminds me of the whole "your save battery will only last 10 years" or "the EPROMs will only last 10 years", yet plenty of protos / arcades / save games still exist 25 years later. I'm not saying they'll last another 100 years with ease, but I am saying that these deterioration arguments are blown WAY out of proportion. If anything, it should urge you to collect more today, because getting a 90 or above on a VGA NES game could be difficult 50 years down the road if the wrap has deteriorated as you've speculated.
The other interesting point that I'd make, is that a Mint sealed Zelda will pass the value of a sealed Stadium Events one day. I'm of the belief that there are more favorites collectors... those who go after childhood favorites, or their favorite series. Most of the rare guys are just speculators who want to buy and flip in a year or two at a profit. It's just playing hot potato and at some point, someone gets stuck with it.
But Zeldas / Marios / etc. will always be in demand as long as Nintendo is alive. You are right, if Nintendo is pushed into bankruptcy by the evolving digital download market, then maybe NES would simply be a passing fad in the timeline of history. But even then, Nintendo can easily survive by just making their Zelda / Mario games digital downloads themselves, continuing demand for the first occurrence of the series.
It's a great discussion to have though. While I don't agree with many of your points, I at least acknowledge them. Hopefully you can at least acknowledge ours as well, even if you think we are delusional.
WTB Clayfighter Sculptor's Cut Manual Only... PM ME!!
I didn't say shrink-wrap was only good for 20 years. What I did say is that 20 years from now (i.e. in some cases 50 years from when the games were first manufactured), I think it's very unlikely you will find any mint sealed games. I mean all you have to do is talk to any toy collector who collects toys from the 1950s and ask if they have ever seen a non-yellowed/non-decaying sealed cardboard box item. They haven't. Save batteries and eproms have a limited lifespan whether you want to believe it or not. How many non-Phoenixed original CPS-2 boards are still working with the original battery? Not many. In fact, I collect CPS-2 boards and I have never seen one that has never had the battery replaced that is still ok. Batteries and eproms have a limited life, no matter how well they are stored.
As for grading, just because something gets a 90 today doesn't mean if it starts to decay it's still a 90. There are plenty of graded comics that have to be re-graded over time simply because they start to brown or are stored improperly after grading. I mean, if you have true archival storage (a dark, climate and humidity controlled acid and pollution free environment), perhaps you can extend the lives of your sealed games slightly. I just don't think any collector other than the guy that runs Neo Geo.com allegedly has such a system.
I don't know if common games will be more valuable than truly rare ones. The fact remains that there were millions of Zeldas manufactured and there are probably hundreds of thousands of complete copies still out there, thousands of sealed ones and who knows how many loose ones. That's more than enough for the likely number of collectors out there well into the future. Ultimately, not everyone will want sealed, especially if they start seeing things decay over time. I also don't buy that even hardcore collectors will continue to pay thousands of dollars for sealed copies unless it becomes very clear that there are only a few of that particular game in that condition. Even then, as decay sets in, demand will wane.
I agree with you that anything could happen, but as someone who has been involved in collecting many things over the years, I just don't think video games are exempt from the same factors that impact other hobbies including people moving on to other things, a lack of nostalgia as people age and die and younger collectors move in and most importantly, a societal shift towards owning fewer physical items. If you had told me five years ago the DVD business would collapse because people were happier with Netflix and downloads/streaming, I would have laughed at you. Yet, here we are with DVD and Blu Ray sales being a small percentage of what they were at their peak. Video games will be no different. You will always have collectors, but at some point it won't be at the level it is today and most people will be happy having near perfect digital copies of the games to play rather than filling their homes with the physical originals.
But that's the thing, no matter how many "thousands of sealed ones" are out there, there are surely not thousands of MINT sealed ones. If every Zelda collector just wants a copy of Zelda, regardless of the seal (oval vs. white), regardless of condition (tears / creases / etc.), and regardless of release (Player's Choice vs. Original), then yes, supply would satisfy everyone.
But it doesn't work that way. Everyone wants first print, and as Mint as they can find. No matter how many copies are in circulation, there will always be a highest known grade.
You speak of other hobbies, and population reports are standard in cards at least (only other hobby I know). For example, a listing might say PSA 10 Cal Ripken Topps Traded Rookie, Pop 5. This is verifiable via the PSA database, and VGA plans to have one at some point. In this case, you know that you are bidding on the highest possible grade, and there are 4 others in existence. Of course there are many other ungraded copies out there, but getting high grades in any hobby is no easy task.
Even with all of the VGA resellers, which you mention being at an all-time high, you still don't see a bunch of new NES VGA 90 titles popping up, especially on the fan-favorites. It's the high grades that will always be in demand as long as video games are collectible.
But yes, you could theorize that we all may move on in our 50's / 60's / late age as we retire and have other more important things to do. Who knows if there will be a new generation of buyers at that point.
But none of that matters today. All I know is that we are nowhere near the top on the insanely Mint and popular fan favorites. If you're only in it as an investment, you'll still have many years to determine when you want to get out.
WTB Clayfighter Sculptor's Cut Manual Only... PM ME!!
You raise some interesting points, but plenty of other hobbies have grading as well and not everyone or even most collectors in any hobby seek out the highest graded copies in existence. Personally, I don't buy graded games but I do collect sealed and my goal is always to find a nice copy which in VGA terms would be roughly 85+ or so. I have a large collection and my collecting goals are complete sets, not just a few nice examples of specific games. I know plenty of coin and comic collectors who set a grading floor and have zero interest in spending more to obtain a slightly more perfect example. Ultimately, everyone sets their own collecting goals and not every collector or even sealed collector out there is looking for a shelf full of 90 or better NES games. In fact, I think there is only a tiny handful of collectors who even care much about grading. Heck, the vast majority of collectors don't even collect sealed and I would suspect that this won't change in the future, especially if as you argue values continue to rise.
To provide accurate population reports, the grading service has to have graded a significant portion of tha available supply of an item. Most sealed sales on Ebay and elsewhere are still not graded and likely will never be. If that changes at some point, a population number may be of interest, but grading has not exactly been embraced by most collectors and not even the majority of sealed collectors.
If you're talking about sealed copies of rare NES games going for $10K+, I disagree with you that we aren't at the peak. There just aren't enough collectors now or ever with that kind of income or cash to sustain that type of pricing on what are modern mass produced items that can't be preserved in the long term. If your argument is that there are some sealed games that are "undervalued" right now that will continue to rise, I will agree with that. I don't, however, agree that video games are a sound investment long term as unlike comics or coins or other established collectibles, there is just too much unknown supply right now, too many other ways of having the same experience and frankly too much volatility in the industry in general to conclude that the next generation will care at all about the NES or the SNES or any other platform that they never owned. Ten years ago Atari collectors would have shared your view of limitless growth in value, but many of them learned the hard way that prices don't increase forever and the next generation of collectors always goes for what they remember from their childhood, not a vague sense of history and nostalgia for something they never experienced.
ok heres something i think is stupid about vga, they only grade sealed games.
baseball cards and comic books, they will grade anything including used and beat up.
for instance I just sold a very near mint mario bros 3 CIB etc for like $40 buy it now. Had it had shrinkwrap on it new i could have sold it for maybe $100 or so. If it were graded by vga , sold for what, 300, 500?! If video games are now being graded I would like to see the opportunity of used games being graded, why not...
Also ebay needs to make their grading scale much more detailed. sellers should be given a scale of 1-10 instead of the 5 choices given. and a real collector should be given the task of the criteria for each grade. I noticed ebay kinda changed the grading, now its ok to list a game with manual as good instead of just acceptable, but it mentions nothing about a game with just the box being ok to list as good. grading is too vague on ebay.
1) People are definitely limited by money, and obviously everyone won't go after the highest grade possible. However, everyone certainly sets a floor of what is acceptable. In terms of VGA, many people are setting the floor at 85+, which is the bare minimum for Gold Level. Even such, when you are talking about the highest confirmed grade, you only need two people that want it badly, to send the price out of control. Or as we're seeing with these Black Box sales, all you need to do is name your price, and then one person may bite.
And sealed is of course an acquired taste for most people... as I started out primarily a CIB guy. I still am a CIB guy, but go sealed on my favorites or when I find a bargain.
2) Population reports are always accurate as they state exactly what is graded right now. It is up to you as a collector to determine if it's an abundant game and the highest confirmed grade means much. Highest confirmed grade on Win Lose or Draw is obviously not as meaningful as highest confirmed grade on Donkey Kong Math.
As far as grading being embraced, it is vastly more accepted now than several years ago. I know because I was a VGA basher myself. You must also remember that is is more than just grading, it is authentication. It has already saved me from owning a Mega Man 1 NES reseal, Halo First print reseal, and a Legend of Zelda Wind Waker reseal. As you get new guys coming into this hobby with untrained eyes, it is very realistic to think that they would want VGA items to eliminate the real vs reseal headaches. Most of VGA critics are old-timers like yourself, while newcomers welcome it with open arms. And guess which one drives values in the hobby? New guys.
3) You don't have to make $10k income to have a $10k game. All you have to find is a Mint game that grades well, near the top of the population report, and you'll be rewarded generously. You get a few thousand and wow, now you're a buyer of something you couldn't afford. There's no investment at all, you just need a good VGA eye. You can buy a game at an all-time high today, but if it grades MINT at the top of the population report, you'll have INSANE offers coming your way. You won't believe it until you see it and do it yourself. I see it happen all the time... I know of a Zelda OOT V-Seam that sold on ebay for $700, graded 90, and that guy has already declined offers of very close to $10k.
And the best (or worst) part of these VGA sales, is that the money gets reciculated into the hobby, driving values farther. If someone sells a game for $20k, what do you think they do with that money? Use it to buy other wants of course (and maybe save some or spend some on other life expenses). That recirculation of the money puts more and more money into the hobby, and drives values even higher.
"Investments" apply to items you have to buy and hold, like a rare cart or rare CIB. It's a brutal reality, but if you have a VGA eye, there is no waiting. It really is as simple as buy Mint ungraded, grade at a high level, and profit thousands of dollars. Believe me, I agree that these valuations are absurd as well (I've still never spent over $600 for any one sealed game), but I'm at least smart enough to use the system to my advantage. I won't pay those values, but I sure as hell will take it if someone wants to buy something off me. Still prefer to trade though...
WTB Clayfighter Sculptor's Cut Manual Only... PM ME!!
VGA 85, probably $400. 85+, I thought was maybe $600-$800, but that new guy showed up and screwed up everything I knew about pricing.
Highest confirmed, 90+, $20,000. Wonder how much he got paid.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-199...item3cc49999f3
And even a 90, $11,999 OBO, though no idea what offers he's getting. I'd imagine at least $1.5k+.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Super-Mario-...item4ab66084e5
WTB Clayfighter Sculptor's Cut Manual Only... PM ME!!
All you are talking about is a self-contained bubble, not a true market. You're essentially just moving the decimal point in your head reasoning that because you sold something for $10K, it makes it reasonable to also pay $10K for something. It's like the gambler who loses his life savings but figures he had a good run because he made millions over the years. The same thing happened with comics in the 1980s. People were scooping up new issues every week and flipping them a month or two later for 3-5 times cover price only to turn around and spend that money on equaly overpriced comics being sold by other collectors or shops. The same thing happened in baseball cards in the 80s and action figures. There is zero chance something like that can last. For a collectible market to thrive, you need to have long term fundamentals like reasonable certainly about supply, consistent or measureable demand and a proximity of perceived value to market pricing. These are mass produced items, not unique pieces of art or even things manufactured fifty years ago before anyone had any conception of collecting pop culture items. Paying thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars for a video game which is not unique in any way is not something that is tied to real market conditions. I'm not saying you can't make money flipping games, obviously you and a number of other people do. All I'm saying is that if you're planning on retiring on your collection, you're probably in for a real shock down the road.
I also disagree that grading is "vastly embraced". If you look at sealed VGA auctions, it's always a matter of several dozen of the same people bidding on every item. It's the same people who hang out on the sealed game forum and Nintendoage. You certainly don't see many sealed Atari collectors or even that many sealed disc based collectors embracing VGA, it's almost all NES people. It's also not like hundreds of new VGA collectors are entering the market every day and VGA graded games are still only a very tiny proportion of all Ebay sealed video game auctions and a miniscule proportion of all game auctions period.
You're right, it is long-term collectors who don't embrace VGA. It's because we've been around long enough to understand the makings of a bubble and that things go up and down over time. Newer collectors come and go and ultimately, they overpay for stuff and end up getting burned when real life catches up and their credit card is maxed out and all they have is a small stack of games encased in plastic which are worth less than what they overpaid for them. How many 1980s comic collectors do you think have been able to take an early retirement by selling their collection? I sure don't know any, of course I was collecting 1960s comics in the 1980s, so while I'm not rich as a result, I certainly have a very nice collection that is also stable or growing in value over time.
Last edited by Bojay1997; 04-18-2012 at 02:46 PM.
You can't compare 1980's videogames to 1980's comic books or baseball cards. In 1985 how long had videogames been around compared to how long comics had been around at that point?
You are comparing comic books which sold for $1.00 brand new by the tens and hundreds of thousands to collectors who instantly placed them in protective sleeves to videogames that sold for $40 or $50 to people who planned to throw away the boxes and play the games. No one bought Donkey Kong Junior Math and stored it away new as an investment. The ones that did survive new and sealed (we are talking about less than 5 known Dk Jr math sealed copies) did so only on accident. Will more turn up? Sure over time more will turn up. Thousands? tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands? umm no. The demand for this title will eat up any supply that is found. You won't find thousands of copies of this title new and sealed, ever.
You are trying to personalize this. You don't have the mindset or even know any of the people who have spent 5k or 10k for a single sealed Nintendo game. Not knowing them or not understanding them doesn't mean someone else won't pay those prices because you don't think it is sane. It doesn't work that way. I'm telling you it is my opinion that not only is not going to go away but that it will get worse because we are starting to see people like ex-comic collectors jump into this game now as well. They love the grading system and they are attracted to the big dollar signs and huge increases. To them and yes I have heard them say this, they are getting on at the ground floor and they have tons of cash to dump into this. They are used to comic book prices afterall where the holy grail of the hobby isn't 20-30k but a million plus.
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