Recent NES black box sales

[jonebone]

I don't know if common games will be more valuable than truly rare ones. The fact remains that there were millions of Zeldas manufactured and there are probably hundreds of thousands of complete copies still out there, thousands of sealed ones and who knows how many loose ones. That's more than enough for the likely number of collectors out there well into the future.

But that's the thing, no matter how many "thousands of sealed ones" are out there, there are surely not thousands of MINT sealed ones. If every Zelda collector just wants a copy of Zelda, regardless of the seal (oval vs. white), regardless of condition (tears / creases / etc.), and regardless of release (Player's Choice vs. Original), then yes, supply would satisfy everyone.

But it doesn't work that way. Everyone wants first print, and as Mint as they can find. No matter how many copies are in circulation, there will always be a highest known grade.

You speak of other hobbies, and population reports are standard in cards at least (only other hobby I know). For example, a listing might say PSA 10 Cal Ripken Topps Traded Rookie, Pop 5. This is verifiable via the PSA database, and VGA plans to have one at some point. In this case, you know that you are bidding on the highest possible grade, and there are 4 others in existence. Of course there are many other ungraded copies out there, but getting high grades in any hobby is no easy task.

Even with all of the VGA resellers, which you mention being at an all-time high, you still don't see a bunch of new NES VGA 90 titles popping up, especially on the fan-favorites. It's the high grades that will always be in demand as long as video games are collectible.

But yes, you could theorize that we all may move on in our 50's / 60's / late age as we retire and have other more important things to do. Who knows if there will be a new generation of buyers at that point.

But none of that matters today. All I know is that we are nowhere near the top on the insanely Mint and popular fan favorites. If you're only in it as an investment, you'll still have many years to determine when you want to get out.

[Bojay1997]

You raise some interesting points, but plenty of other hobbies have grading as well and not everyone or even most collectors in any hobby seek out the highest graded copies in existence. Personally, I don't buy graded games but I do collect sealed and my goal is always to find a nice copy which in VGA terms would be roughly 85+ or so. I have a large collection and my collecting goals are complete sets, not just a few nice examples of specific games. I know plenty of coin and comic collectors who set a grading floor and have zero interest in spending more to obtain a slightly more perfect example. Ultimately, everyone sets their own collecting goals and not every collector or even sealed collector out there is looking for a shelf full of 90 or better NES games. In fact, I think there is only a tiny handful of collectors who even care much about grading. Heck, the vast majority of collectors don't even collect sealed and I would suspect that this won't change in the future, especially if as you argue values continue to rise.

To provide accurate population reports, the grading service has to have graded a significant portion of tha available supply of an item. Most sealed sales on Ebay and elsewhere are still not graded and likely will never be. If that changes at some point, a population number may be of interest, but grading has not exactly been embraced by most collectors and not even the majority of sealed collectors.

If you're talking about sealed copies of rare NES games going for $10K+, I disagree with you that we aren't at the peak. There just aren't enough collectors now or ever with that kind of income or cash to sustain that type of pricing on what are modern mass produced items that can't be preserved in the long term. If your argument is that there are some sealed games that are "undervalued" right now that will continue to rise, I will agree with that. I don't, however, agree that video games are a sound investment long term as unlike comics or coins or other established collectibles, there is just too much unknown supply right now, too many other ways of having the same experience and frankly too much volatility in the industry in general to conclude that the next generation will care at all about the NES or the SNES or any other platform that they never owned. Ten years ago Atari collectors would have shared your view of limitless growth in value, but many of them learned the hard way that prices don't increase forever and the next generation of collectors always goes for what they remember from their childhood, not a vague sense of history and nostalgia for something they never experienced.

But that's the thing, no matter how many "thousands of sealed ones" are out there, there are surely not thousands of MINT sealed ones. If every Zelda collector just wants a copy of Zelda, regardless of the seal (oval vs. white), regardless of condition (tears / creases / etc.), and regardless of release (Player's Choice vs. Original), then yes, supply would satisfy everyone.

But it doesn't work that way. Everyone wants first print, and as Mint as they can find. No matter how many copies are in circulation, there will always be a highest known grade.

You speak of other hobbies, and population reports are standard in cards at least (only other hobby I know). For example, a listing might say PSA 10 Cal Ripken Topps Traded Rookie, Pop 5. This is verifiable via the PSA database, and VGA plans to have one at some point. In this case, you know that you are bidding on the highest possible grade, and there are 4 others in existence. Of course there are many other ungraded copies out there, but getting high grades in any hobby is no easy task.

Even with all of the VGA resellers, which you mention being at an all-time high, you still don't see a bunch of new NES VGA 90 titles popping up, especially on the fan-favorites. It's the high grades that will always be in demand as long as video games are collectible.

But yes, you could theorize that we all may move on in our 50's / 60's / late age as we retire and have other more important things to do. Who knows if there will be a new generation of buyers at that point.

But none of that matters today. All I know is that we are nowhere near the top on the insanely Mint and popular fan favorites. If you're only in it as an investment, you'll still have many years to determine when you want to get out.

[Kevincal]

ok heres something i think is stupid about vga, they only grade sealed games.

baseball cards and comic books, they will grade anything including used and beat up.

for instance I just sold a very near mint mario bros 3 CIB etc for like $40 buy it now. Had it had shrinkwrap on it new i could have sold it for maybe $100 or so. If it were graded by vga , sold for what, 300, 500?! If video games are now being graded I would like to see the opportunity of used games being graded, why not...

Also ebay needs to make their grading scale much more detailed. sellers should be given a scale of 1-10 instead of the 5 choices given. and a real collector should be given the task of the criteria for each grade. I noticed ebay kinda changed the grading, now its ok to list a game with manual as good instead of just acceptable, but it mentions nothing about a game with just the box being ok to list as good. grading is too vague on ebay.

[jonebone]

for instance I just sold a very near mint mario bros 3 CIB etc for like $40 buy it now. Had it had shrinkwrap on it new i could have sold it for maybe $100 or so. If it were graded by vga , sold for what, 300, 500?!

VGA 85, probably $400. 85+, I thought was maybe $600-$800, but that new guy showed up and screwed up everything I knew about pricing.

Highest confirmed, 90+, $20,000. Wonder how much he got paid.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-199...item3cc49999f3

And even a 90, $11,999 OBO, though no idea what offers he's getting. I'd imagine at least $1.5k+.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Super-Mario-...item4ab66084e5

[jonebone]

1) You raise some interesting points, but plenty of other hobbies have grading as well and not everyone or even most collectors in any hobby seek out the highest graded copies in existence. Personally, I don't buy graded games but I do collect sealed and my goal is always to find a nice copy which in VGA terms would be roughly 85+ or so. I have a large collection and my collecting goals are complete sets, not just a few nice examples of specific games. I know plenty of coin and comic collectors who set a grading floor and have zero interest in spending more to obtain a slightly more perfect example. Ultimately, everyone sets their own collecting goals and not every collector or even sealed collector out there is looking for a shelf full of 90 or better NES games. In fact, I think there is only a tiny handful of collectors who even care much about grading. Heck, the vast majority of collectors don't even collect sealed and I would suspect that this won't change in the future, especially if as you argue values continue to rise.

2) To provide accurate population reports, the grading service has to have graded a significant portion of tha available supply of an item. Most sealed sales on Ebay and elsewhere are still not graded and likely will never be. If that changes at some point, a population number may be of interest, but grading has not exactly been embraced by most collectors and not even the majority of sealed collectors.

3) If you're talking about sealed copies of rare NES games going for $10K+, I disagree with you that we aren't at the peak. There just aren't enough collectors now or ever with that kind of income or cash to sustain that type of pricing on what are modern mass produced items that can't be preserved in the long term. If your argument is that there are some sealed games that are "undervalued" right now that will continue to rise, I will agree with that. I don't, however, agree that video games are a sound investment long term as unlike comics or coins or other established collectibles, there is just too much unknown supply right now, too many other ways of having the same experience and frankly too much volatility in the industry in general to conclude that the next generation will care at all about the NES or the SNES or any other platform that they never owned. Ten years ago Atari collectors would have shared your view of limitless growth in value, but many of them learned the hard way that prices don't increase forever and the next generation of collectors always goes for what they remember from their childhood, not a vague sense of history and nostalgia for something they never experienced.

1) People are definitely limited by money, and obviously everyone won't go after the highest grade possible. However, everyone certainly sets a floor of what is acceptable. In terms of VGA, many people are setting the floor at 85+, which is the bare minimum for Gold Level. Even such, when you are talking about the highest confirmed grade, you only need two people that want it badly, to send the price out of control. Or as we're seeing with these Black Box sales, all you need to do is name your price, and then one person may bite.

And sealed is of course an acquired taste for most people... as I started out primarily a CIB guy. I still am a CIB guy, but go sealed on my favorites or when I find a bargain.

2) Population reports are always accurate as they state exactly what is graded right now. It is up to you as a collector to determine if it's an abundant game and the highest confirmed grade means much. Highest confirmed grade on Win Lose or Draw is obviously not as meaningful as highest confirmed grade on Donkey Kong Math.

As far as grading being embraced, it is vastly more accepted now than several years ago. I know because I was a VGA basher myself. You must also remember that is is more than just grading, it is authentication. It has already saved me from owning a Mega Man 1 NES reseal, Halo First print reseal, and a Legend of Zelda Wind Waker reseal. As you get new guys coming into this hobby with untrained eyes, it is very realistic to think that they would want VGA items to eliminate the real vs reseal headaches. Most of VGA critics are old-timers like yourself, while newcomers welcome it with open arms. And guess which one drives values in the hobby? New guys.

3) You don't have to make $10k income to have a $10k game. All you have to find is a Mint game that grades well, near the top of the population report, and you'll be rewarded generously. You get a few thousand and wow, now you're a buyer of something you couldn't afford. There's no investment at all, you just need a good VGA eye. You can buy a game at an all-time high today, but if it grades MINT at the top of the population report, you'll have INSANE offers coming your way. You won't believe it until you see it and do it yourself. I see it happen all the time... I know of a Zelda OOT V-Seam that sold on ebay for $700, graded 90, and that guy has already declined offers of very close to $10k.

And the best (or worst) part of these VGA sales, is that the money gets reciculated into the hobby, driving values farther. If someone sells a game for $20k, what do you think they do with that money? Use it to buy other wants of course (and maybe save some or spend some on other life expenses). That recirculation of the money puts more and more money into the hobby, and drives values even higher.

"Investments" apply to items you have to buy and hold, like a rare cart or rare CIB. It's a brutal reality, but if you have a VGA eye, there is no waiting. It really is as simple as buy Mint ungraded, grade at a high level, and profit thousands of dollars. Believe me, I agree that these valuations are absurd as well (I've still never spent over $600 for any one sealed game), but I'm at least smart enough to use the system to my advantage. I won't pay those values, but I sure as hell will take it if someone wants to buy something off me. Still prefer to trade though...

[Bojay1997]

All you are talking about is a self-contained bubble, not a true market. You're essentially just moving the decimal point in your head reasoning that because you sold something for $10K, it makes it reasonable to also pay $10K for something. It's like the gambler who loses his life savings but figures he had a good run because he made millions over the years. The same thing happened with comics in the 1980s. People were scooping up new issues every week and flipping them a month or two later for 3-5 times cover price only to turn around and spend that money on equaly overpriced comics being sold by other collectors or shops. The same thing happened in baseball cards in the 80s and action figures. There is zero chance something like that can last. For a collectible market to thrive, you need to have long term fundamentals like reasonable certainly about supply, consistent or measureable demand and a proximity of perceived value to market pricing. These are mass produced items, not unique pieces of art or even things manufactured fifty years ago before anyone had any conception of collecting pop culture items. Paying thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars for a video game which is not unique in any way is not something that is tied to real market conditions. I'm not saying you can't make money flipping games, obviously you and a number of other people do. All I'm saying is that if you're planning on retiring on your collection, you're probably in for a real shock down the road.

I also disagree that grading is "vastly embraced". If you look at sealed VGA auctions, it's always a matter of several dozen of the same people bidding on every item. It's the same people who hang out on the sealed game forum and Nintendoage. You certainly don't see many sealed Atari collectors or even that many sealed disc based collectors embracing VGA, it's almost all NES people. It's also not like hundreds of new VGA collectors are entering the market every day and VGA graded games are still only a very tiny proportion of all Ebay sealed video game auctions and a miniscule proportion of all game auctions period.

You're right, it is long-term collectors who don't embrace VGA. It's because we've been around long enough to understand the makings of a bubble and that things go up and down over time. Newer collectors come and go and ultimately, they overpay for stuff and end up getting burned when real life catches up and their credit card is maxed out and all they have is a small stack of games encased in plastic which are worth less than what they overpaid for them. How many 1980s comic collectors do you think have been able to take an early retirement by selling their collection? I sure don't know any, of course I was collecting 1960s comics in the 1980s, so while I'm not rich as a result, I certainly have a very nice collection that is also stable or growing in value over time.

1) People are definitely limited by money, and obviously everyone won't go after the highest grade possible. However, everyone certainly sets a floor of what is acceptable. In terms of VGA, many people are setting the floor at 85+, which is the bare minimum for Gold Level. Even such, when you are talking about the highest confirmed grade, you only need two people that want it badly, to send the price out of control. Or as we're seeing with these Black Box sales, all you need to do is name your price, and then one person may bite.

And sealed is of course an acquired taste for most people... as I started out primarily a CIB guy. I still am a CIB guy, but go sealed on my favorites or when I find a bargain.

2) Population reports are always accurate as they state exactly what is graded right now. It is up to you as a collector to determine if it's an abundant game and the highest confirmed grade means much. Highest confirmed grade on Win Lose or Draw is obviously not as meaningful as highest confirmed grade on Donkey Kong Math.

As far as grading being embraced, it is vastly more accepted now than several years ago. I know because I was a VGA basher myself. You must also remember that is is more than just grading, it is authentication. It has already saved me from owning a Mega Man 1 NES reseal, Halo First print reseal, and a Legend of Zelda Wind Waker reseal. As you get new guys coming into this hobby with untrained eyes, it is very realistic to think that they would want VGA items to eliminate the real vs reseal headaches. Most of VGA critics are old-timers like yourself, while newcomers welcome it with open arms. And guess which one drives values in the hobby? New guys.

3) You don't have to make $10k income to have a $10k game. All you have to find is a Mint game that grades well, near the top of the population report, and you'll be rewarded generously. You get a few thousand and wow, now you're a buyer of something you couldn't afford. There's no investment at all, you just need a good VGA eye. You can buy a game at an all-time high today, but if it grades MINT at the top of the population report, you'll have INSANE offers coming your way. You won't believe it until you see it and do it yourself. I see it happen all the time... I know of a Zelda OOT V-Seam that sold on ebay for $700, graded 90, and that guy has already declined offers of very close to $10k.

And the best (or worst) part of these VGA sales, is that the money gets reciculated into the hobby, driving values farther. If someone sells a game for $20k, what do you think they do with that money? Use it to buy other wants of course (and maybe save some or spend some on other life expenses). That recirculation of the money puts more and more money into the hobby, and drives values even higher.

"Investments" apply to items you have to buy and hold, like a rare cart or rare CIB. It's a brutal reality, but if you have a VGA eye, there is no waiting. It really is as simple as buy Mint ungraded, grade at a high level, and profit thousands of dollars. Believe me, I agree that these valuations are absurd as well (I've still never spent over $600 for any one sealed game), but I'm at least smart enough to use the system to my advantage. I won't pay those values, but I sure as hell will take it if someone wants to buy something off me. Still prefer to trade though...

[Buyatari]

All you are talking about is a self-contained bubble, not a true market. You're essentially just moving the decimal point in your head reasoning that because you sold something for $10K, it makes it reasonable to also pay $10K for something. It's like the gambler who loses his life savings but figures he had a good run because he made millions over the years. The same thing happened with comics in the 1980s. People were scooping up new issues every week and flipping them a month or two later for 3-5 times cover price only to turn around and spend that money on equaly overpriced comics being sold by other collectors or shops. The same thing happened in baseball cards in the 80s and action figures. There is zero chance something like that can last. For a collectible market to thrive, you need to have long term fundamentals like reasonable certainly about supply, consistent or measureable demand and a proximity of perceived value to market pricing. These are mass produced items, not unique pieces of art or even things manufactured fifty years ago before anyone had any conception of collecting pop culture items. Paying thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars for a video game which is not unique in any way is not something that is tied to real market conditions. I'm not saying you can't make money flipping games, obviously you and a number of other people do. All I'm saying is that if you're planning on retiring on your collection, you're probably in for a real shock down the road.

I also disagree that grading is "vastly embraced". If you look at sealed VGA auctions, it's always a matter of several dozen of the same people bidding on every item. It's the same people who hang out on the sealed game forum and Nintendoage. You certainly don't see many sealed Atari collectors or even that many sealed disc based collectors embracing VGA, it's almost all NES people. It's also not like hundreds of new VGA collectors are entering the market every day and VGA graded games are still only a very tiny proportion of all Ebay sealed video game auctions and a miniscule proportion of all game auctions period.

You're right, it is long-term collectors who don't embrace VGA. It's because we've been around long enough to understand the makings of a bubble and that things go up and down over time. Newer collectors come and go and ultimately, they overpay for stuff and end up getting burned when real life catches up and their credit card is maxed out and all they have is a small stack of games encased in plastic which are worth less than what they overpaid for them. How many 1980s comic collectors do you think have been able to take an early retirement by selling their collection? I sure don't know any, of course I was collecting 1960s comics in the 1980s, so while I'm not rich as a result, I certainly have a very nice collection that is also stable or growing in value over time.

You can't compare 1980's videogames to 1980's comic books or baseball cards. In 1985 how long had videogames been around compared to how long comics had been around at that point?

You are comparing comic books which sold for $1.00 brand new by the tens and hundreds of thousands to collectors who instantly placed them in protective sleeves to videogames that sold for $40 or $50 to people who planned to throw away the boxes and play the games. No one bought Donkey Kong Junior Math and stored it away new as an investment. The ones that did survive new and sealed (we are talking about less than 5 known Dk Jr math sealed copies) did so only on accident. Will more turn up? Sure over time more will turn up. Thousands? tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands? umm no. The demand for this title will eat up any supply that is found. You won't find thousands of copies of this title new and sealed, ever.

You are trying to personalize this. You don't have the mindset or even know any of the people who have spent 5k or 10k for a single sealed Nintendo game. Not knowing them or not understanding them doesn't mean someone else won't pay those prices because you don't think it is sane. It doesn't work that way. I'm telling you it is my opinion that not only is not going to go away but that it will get worse because we are starting to see people like ex-comic collectors jump into this game now as well. They love the grading system and they are attracted to the big dollar signs and huge increases. To them and yes I have heard them say this, they are getting on at the ground floor and they have tons of cash to dump into this. They are used to comic book prices afterall where the holy grail of the hobby isn't 20-30k but a million plus.

[Bojay1997]

Sure you can. Look at all the people scooping up collector's editions and "limited editions" and even just plain old current generation games and keeping them sealed or even having them graded. I was collecting comics for most of the 80s and that's exactly the same thing other collectors were doing with the exception of the grading back then. People were literally walking into the comic store on new release day and buying up multiple copies of every new release and every "limited edition" cover or variant and immediately sealing them up and boxing them and then waiting for the next price guide update so they could cash in. Yes, the cost of a video game is higher, but I knew plenty of people spending $50 or more a week on new comics in the 80s which is the same as $100 a week in 2012 dollars or about two new games. I'm not seeing much difference. It also seems like many more people have access to credit cards nowadays and certainly aren't afraid to rack up massive debts in support of their collecting.

You're right, there probably aren't thousands of copies of most of the early NES titles out there. Of course, there also aren't thousands of collectors looking for them. Most collectors here and elsewhere are perfectly happy with a loose copy or a complete copy or even a minty boxed complete copy. While it only takes two people to run a price up, you can never depend on those two people showing up at any given moment.

Your scenario about these alleged comic collectors looking to spend millions on games is cute, but it's not based in reality. For a totally disinterested collector to walk in and buy games as a pure speculator is far too risky. After all, if what you're claiming is accurate, what would be the potential financial benefit of scooping up what amounts to a tiny handful of games and trying to sell them for premium prices? You can't make millions off just five copies of something regardless of how rare it might be in sealed condition if it's a mass produced item that is available in substantially similar condition (i.e. mint, complete, boxed, etc...) for next to nothing.

You also have the added problem that a lot of collectors collect games because they can play them. It's not like a baseball card or coin where you can see everything the item has to offer even in a sealed case. Batteries can leak, metal can corrode, boxes can get moldy or brown, plastic shrinks and gets brittle and as I noted earlier, video games of the cartridge variety are a really volatile mix of all sorts of reactive materials that can't possibly remain stable over time. Is anyone really going to pay millions for something that won't be around in 75-100 years?

Continuing on your point, what guarantee would these alleged buyers have that another equally wealthy buyer would not only pay more than what they paid for something, but would do so right at the time they are looking to sell? You certainly aren't going to find enough buyers in the current crop of collectors who will spend tens of thousands of dollars on a single game, especially if there is no guarantee they can sell it for more when they move on. While the prices are interesting and generate discussion, they aren't really a reflection of the actual value these games will have over time. The only way to predict that future is to wait it out and see what happens when the NES generation ages just like the 2600 generation did. I'm certainly curious to see how the next few years play out and it seems like the wise path would be to wait and see rather than joining the speculation and risking huge financial losses.

Frankly, this really isn't that personal for me. If anything, I have a huge potential financial upside if your predictions are correct. I have hundreds of mint sealed NES games including a number of black box titles. I also have a lot of disposable income. It doesn't change the fact that I come to collecting with experience, wisdom and common sense. A sealed NES game is not worth tens of thousands of dollars as long as there are readily available copies of the same game simply missing a piece of shrinkwrap that can't be maintained in pristine condition no matter how hard you try 20 years from now (i.e. 50 years after these games were packaged). Comic books and other paper collectibles can be preserved for potentially hundreds of years given proper archival practices, there is no such means of doing so for video games, especially if you're keeping them in a regular suburban home or storage unit.

You can't compare 1980's videogames to 1980's comic books or baseball cards. In 1985 how long had videogames been around compared to how long comics had been around at that point?

You are comparing comic books which sold for $1.00 brand new by the tens and hundreds of thousands to collectors who instantly placed them in protective sleeves to videogames that sold for $40 or $50 to people who planned to throw away the boxes and play the games. No one bought Donkey Kong Junior Math and stored it away new as an investment. The ones that did survive new and sealed (we are talking about less than 5 known Dk Jr math sealed copies) did so only on accident. Will more turn up? Sure over time more will turn up. Thousands? tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands? umm no. The demand for this title will eat up any supply that is found. You won't find thousands of copies of this title new and sealed, ever.

You are trying to personalize this. You don't have the mindset or even know any of the people who have spent 5k or 10k for a single sealed Nintendo game. Not knowing them or not understanding them doesn't mean someone else won't pay those prices because you don't think it is sane. It doesn't work that way. I'm telling you it is my opinion that not only is not going to go away but that it will get worse because we are starting to see people like ex-comic collectors jump into this game now as well. They love the grading system and they are attracted to the big dollar signs and huge increases. To them and yes I have heard them say this, they are getting on at the ground floor and they have tons of cash to dump into this. They are used to comic book prices afterall where the holy grail of the hobby isn't 20-30k but a million plus.

[Buyatari]

Sure you can. Look at all the people scooping up collector's editions and "limited editions" and even just plain old current generation games and keeping them sealed or even having them graded. I was collecting comics for most of the 80s and that's exactly the same thing other collectors were doing with the exception of the grading back then. People were literally walking into the comic store on new release day and buying up multiple copies of every new release and every "limited edition" cover or variant and immediately sealing them up and boxing them and then waiting for the next price guide update so they could cash in. Yes, the cost of a video game is higher, but I knew plenty of people spending $50 or more a week on new comics in the 80s which is the same as $100 a week in 2012 dollars or about two new games. I'm not seeing much difference. It also seems like many more people have access to credit cards nowadays and certainly aren't afraid to rack up massive debts in support of their collecting.

You're right, there probably aren't thousands of copies of most of the early NES titles out there. Of course, there also aren't thousands of collectors looking for them. Most collectors here and elsewhere are perfectly happy with a loose copy or a complete copy or even a minty boxed complete copy. While it only takes two people to run a price up, you can never depend on those two people showing up at any given moment.

Your scenario about these alleged comic collectors looking to spend millions on games is cute, but it's not based in reality. For a totally disinterested collector to walk in and buy games as a pure speculator is far too risky. After all, if what you're claiming is accurate, what would be the potential financial benefit of scooping up what amounts to a tiny handful of games and trying to sell them for premium prices? You can't make millions off just five copies of something regardless of how rare it might be in sealed condition if it's a mass produced item that is available in substantially similar condition (i.e. mint, complete, boxed, etc...) for next to nothing.

You also have the added problem that a lot of collectors collect games because they can play them. It's not like a baseball card or coin where you can see everything the item has to offer even in a sealed case. Batteries can leak, metal can corrode, boxes can get moldy or brown, plastic shrinks and gets brittle and as I noted earlier, video games of the cartridge variety are a really volatile mix of all sorts of reactive materials that can't possibly remain stable over time. Is anyone really going to pay millions for something that won't be around in 75-100 years?

Continuing on your point, what guarantee would these alleged buyers have that another equally wealthy buyer would not only pay more than what they paid for something, but would do so right at the time they are looking to sell? You certainly aren't going to find enough buyers in the current crop of collectors who will spend tens of thousands of dollars on a single game, especially if there is no guarantee they can sell it for more when they move on. While the prices are interesting and generate discussion, they aren't really a reflection of the actual value these games will have over time. The only way to predict that future is to wait it out and see what happens when the NES generation ages just like the 2600 generation did. I'm certainly curious to see how the next few years play out and it seems like the wise path would be to wait and see rather than joining the speculation and risking huge financial losses.

Frankly, this really isn't that personal for me. If anything, I have a huge potential financial upside if your predictions are correct. I have hundreds of mint sealed NES games including a number of black box titles. I also have a lot of disposable income. It doesn't change the fact that I come to collecting with experience, wisdom and common sense. A sealed NES game is not worth tens of thousands of dollars as long as there are readily available copies of the same game simply missing a piece of shrinkwrap that can't be maintained in pristine condition no matter how hard you try 20 years from now (i.e. 50 years after these games were packaged). Comic books and other paper collectibles can be preserved for potentially hundreds of years given proper archival practices, there is no such means of doing so for video games, especially if you're keeping them in a regular suburban home or storage unit.

You are basing all your arguments on everything making sense to you or on how you think things should be.

I am basing mine on what buyers and sellers of the these games at 5k and 10k are telling me.

If you don't believe it is here to stay and you have sealed blackbox Donkey Kong and Mario titles to sell send me a pm.