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View Full Version : Both Xbox 360 and PS3 are dissapointments with their lousy NPD numbers



Anthony1
06-16-2007, 12:11 PM
(this analysis comes to you from the "sky is blue" and "water is wet" department)


The NPD results for May were just released yesterday, and the numbers paint a pretty bleak picture for both the Xbox 360 and PS3. The Xbox 360 sold only 155,000 units in May, and the PS3 was even worse with a disturbing 82,000 units sold for the 2nd consecutive month. At the same time, the Wii continues to sell well, with Nintendo moving 338,000 systems in May. If you take the numbers from the February thru May period (basically, after Xmas 06 is taken out of the equation), and you average them out, this is what each console has been averaging per month, over the last 4 months.

Nintendo Wii = 323,000 units per month

Xbox 360 = 189,000 units per month

PS3 = 105,250 units per month


As you can see, the Nintendo Wii has continued to perform very well, even after the 06 Holiday has completely faded away. The Xbox 360 has performed at a mediocre level. Not a horrible dissapointment, but definitely not setting the world on fire. A somewhat disturbing issue for the 360 is the fact that it's NPD numbers are trending downwards each month. Instead of gaining steam, it's losing steam. 228K in February, 199K in March, 174K in April and a paltry 155K in May. The May numbers are particularly dissapointing, considering the arrival of the Xbox 360 Elite, and the thought that the Elites arrival would spike sales a bit.

The Playstation 3 has been nothing short of a retail disaster, selling under 100K units for the second month in a row. Only 82K units were sold in both April and May. For comparisons sake, the Nintendo Wii sold more units in May, than the PS3 has sold in the last 3 months combined. Adding insult to injury, the PS3 continues to have problems getting at least one software title to crack the top 10. The Nintendo Wii had 2 games in the top 10, Mario Party 8 at No.2 overall, and Wii Play at No.5. The Xbox 360 had 4 games crack the top 10 in May. Forza 2 at 6, Guitar Hero II at 7, Spiderman 3 at 8 and Command and Conquer 3 at 9.


So where does all this leave us? With an industry that doesn't have a clear leader. Normally, you would look at the numbers over the last 6 months, and the Wii would emerge as the clear leader going forward, but the problem is that the Wii isn't conforming to many of the norms in the video game industry. The attach rate for software for the Nintendo Wii is abnormally low for the so called industry leader. It seems the Wii hardware is selling amazing well, but the software isn't. Sales of Wii-motes and Nunchuks are brisk, most likely do to the fact that many people are buying a Wii, and playing Wii Sports primarily. Normally, when new users pick up a video game system, they typically buy 2 or 3 games within the first 60 days of owning the system, but this isn't happening with the Nintendo Wii. So we can't simply look to Nintendo Wii, and say that the industry is in good hands with the Wii as the market leader, because it's only really showing leadership in one category; hardware sales. The Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 sales, continue to drive home the point that price matters. Once you get past the first couple of million hardcore users, then price becomes a major issue. Dropping $400 plus on a video game system, just isn't in the cards for alot of consumers. Microsoft and Sony need to look long and hard at these NPD numbers, and they need to realize that price really is king. Both companies have to bite the bullet and lower their prices. E3 is in early July, likely before the NPD numbers of June will be available, so Microsoft and Sony can't wait fo the NPD numbers of June before taking action. I expect both companies to consider price drops at e3. Likely one of the two companies will annouce a price drop, and the other will follow with an effective immediately price drop of their own.





chaka

Steve W
06-16-2007, 12:30 PM
The attach rate for software for the Nintendo Wii is abnormally low for the so called industry leader. It seems the Wii hardware is selling amazing well, but the software isn't. Sales of Wii-motes and Nunchuks are brisk, most likely do to the fact that many people are buying a Wii, and playing Wii Sports primarily.
Didn't this happen with the Super Famicom when it originally came out in Japan? People weren't buying any extra games because they were spending all their time playing Super Mario World.

I think that another reason why Wii software sales aren't picking up is because the launch line-up is so weak. That's the reason I didn't pick up a Wii the day it came out. I looked at the games, and it seemed like it was two kiddie games for every one 'real' game. Too many children's movie/TV show tie-ins, and not enough serious applications. It seems to be getting a little bit better, but so far the best title on the system is Wii Sports from what everyone says. Nintendo had better get some decent software out soon instead of licensed kiddie GameCube titles revamped for the Wii.

gepeto
06-16-2007, 12:35 PM
What is with all the numbers. Who do you believe. I was just reading that the ps3 was out pacing the ps2 in sales at this point of its life. I am so confused.

On another no what does chaka mean Ha HA HA

Captain Wrong
06-16-2007, 12:44 PM
Interesting that moving 100K units a month is a dissapointment. In most any other business, that'd be a roaring sucess.

Also, anyone other than fanboys and company execs actually care about these numbers?

crazyjackcsa
06-16-2007, 01:28 PM
I think to an extent, the casual gamer does care about he numbers. Success breeds success. Sega fans can attest, that one of the main resons the Saturn Failed was because it wasn't selling. And why wasn't it selling? Because people hear it isn't selling, and that makes the problem worse.

GetImOliver
06-16-2007, 03:41 PM
Am I completely out of the loop? I thought there weren't going to be anymore E3s...

AMG
06-16-2007, 04:28 PM
With an industry that doesn't have a clear leader. Normally, you would look at the numbers over the last 6 months, and the Wii would emerge as the clear leader going forward, but the problem is that the Wii isn't conforming to many of the norms in the video game industry. The attach rate for software for the Nintendo Wii is abnormally low for the so called industry leader. It seems the Wii hardware is selling amazing well, but the software isn't. Sales of Wii-motes and Nunchuks are brisk, most likely do to the fact that many people are buying a Wii, and playing Wii Sports primarily. Normally, when new users pick up a video game system, they typically buy 2 or 3 games within the first 60 days of owning the system, but this isn't happening with the Nintendo Wii. So we can't simply look to Nintendo Wii, and say that the industry is in good hands with the Wii as the market leader, because it's only really showing leadership in one category; hardware sales.


This makes perfect sense really. With the Wii attracting so many casual and non gamers, do you think those people going to buy a lot of games? I don't. They may pick up a party game here and there, but they're not hardcore gamers who buy every big title. Or even buy games regularly. They played Wii Sports at a friends house and bought a Wii for it. They got what they wanted. Pushing other games on those people won't be easy, at least I don't think it will be.

ProgrammingAce
06-16-2007, 04:36 PM
Are you insane? The fact that any of the consoles are moving on that order of magnitude at this time of year is amazing. I'm sorry they're not selling whatever inflated number you'd like, but in the real world that's a hell of a lot of consoles.

j_factor
06-16-2007, 05:03 PM
Attach rate doesn't mean that much, IMO. As I recall, Dreamcast had an incredibly high attach rate.

Damaramu
06-16-2007, 05:06 PM
Am I completely out of the loop? I thought there weren't going to be anymore E3s...

No longer for the general public. It's now a smaller, more private industry trade show that is by invitation only, IIRC.

Garry Silljo
06-16-2007, 05:09 PM
The sad thing is that if PS3 just added a 99 cent scaler chip they would sell 1,000,000,000,000 units per week. Idiots!

(for the slow, thats sarcasm up there)

Kid Ice
06-16-2007, 05:14 PM
NPD results so disappointing that Gamestop shares have jumped.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6020&Itemid=2

Chaka?

Anthony1
06-16-2007, 05:54 PM
What is with all the numbers. Who do you believe. I was just reading that the ps3 was out pacing the ps2 in sales at this point of its life. I am so confused.




That was in Europe. PS3 has sold more units than the PS2 did at this same point in time, in Europe.





Khan

jajaja
06-16-2007, 06:17 PM
Didn't this happen with the Super Famicom when it originally came out in Japan? People weren't buying any extra games because they were spending all their time playing Super Mario World.

I wonder how many people that are like this with the Wii. I mean, they buy the Wii and only play the Wii Sports thats bundled with the system. When they get tired of it starts to collect dust and they dont buy any new games.

8Ways2Tuesday
06-16-2007, 07:11 PM
I think we had our SNES for two or three months before buying a second game because Super Mario World kept the entire family quite busy.

I'm interested if there's any data as far as the average number of games a casual gamer buys for a system (2-3 in 60 days sounds high for $50+ games). We had maybe 20 SNES games back in the 1990's, accumulated between 1992-1997 or so. If people are just getting their Wiis (or any other system), they aren't going to rush to buy every game available for the system - likely just one or two and enjoy them for quite awhile.

CartCollector
06-16-2007, 07:36 PM
chaka


Khan

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Chaka_Khan.jpg/220px-Chaka_Khan.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaka_Khan)?

ubersaurus
06-16-2007, 07:49 PM
I expect Nintendo didn't expect a high attach rate for the wii with the market they're breaking into. Seems likely that's why they sell the system at a profit :P

swlovinist
06-17-2007, 09:03 AM
I have said this before, I will say it again. 1. It is too early to tell 2. Summer months are known to have lower sell rates. This holiday is going to show a true indicator of who is really doing well, and who is not. With that being said, the numbers show one thing....The Xbox and PS3 will continue to lag behind the Wii mosly due to the cost to buy either of them. I will be with many on this forum and say that game consoles have lost touch about what most people are willing to spend on them. The Wii is not the best system of the three, it is just that its competitor is $150 more expensive. That is just crazy. I for one, if I did not win my 360, would not have one due to price.

Mobius
06-17-2007, 11:45 AM
I wonder what exactly is driving Xbox 360 numbers down. It could just be a summer lull, but at the same time, they're getting some bad press in terms of reliability. I know I've considered picking up a 360 for XBLA, but the hardware failure rate seems abnormally high and I didn't really want to take the $400 gamble. Add on the problems I had with the original Xbox, and it makes me really hesitate. I wonder how many other people feel the same way.

Even when you account for the fact that it's just the people with problems you hear from, the failure rate seems high. How many people do you hear about with PS3 or Wii problems? Not nearly as many.

Either way, the Wii is going to catch up to the 360 in hardware sales very soon, and I suspect the PS3 eventually will, too. Microsoft has locked themselves into an almost exclusively hardcore American niche that they're having trouble getting out of.

Griking
06-17-2007, 12:37 PM
Didn't this happen with the Super Famicom when it originally came out in Japan? People weren't buying any extra games because they were spending all their time playing Super Mario World.

I think that another reason why Wii software sales aren't picking up is because the launch line-up is so weak.

I would think that the primary reason that the attachment numbers are so low with the Wii is because the Wii was the first console in years to come with a pack in game. Buyers didn't NEED to buy a separate game when they bought the console. I know that if I spend a few hundred on a console I would play the pack in game for a week or so before buying another. Also, people are doing the Gamefly thing more than they used to so perhaps people are choosing to rent before they buy.

lendelin
06-17-2007, 11:15 PM
About the original post:

I agree with all evaluations (in particular about the Wii) which stay within the sales trend among the three consoles.

However, evaluations comparing the consoles to their predecessors or the state of the industry in general need the data from 2002 (March, April, May 2002) in order to correct for seasonal spikes and lows. (and even better additionally average purchasing power per income/household of the year 2002 and 2007.)

For me it is still unclear whether the sales numbers of the "serious" consoles (PS3 and Xbox 360) indicate a general slowdown of the industry like we have in Japan for some time now, or if they indicate disappointing expectations and reservations about the two specific consoles for various reasons. (in particular competing with the low-end Wii when it comes to price and technology.)