Anthony1
06-16-2007, 12:11 PM
(this analysis comes to you from the "sky is blue" and "water is wet" department)
The NPD results for May were just released yesterday, and the numbers paint a pretty bleak picture for both the Xbox 360 and PS3. The Xbox 360 sold only 155,000 units in May, and the PS3 was even worse with a disturbing 82,000 units sold for the 2nd consecutive month. At the same time, the Wii continues to sell well, with Nintendo moving 338,000 systems in May. If you take the numbers from the February thru May period (basically, after Xmas 06 is taken out of the equation), and you average them out, this is what each console has been averaging per month, over the last 4 months.
Nintendo Wii = 323,000 units per month
Xbox 360 = 189,000 units per month
PS3 = 105,250 units per month
As you can see, the Nintendo Wii has continued to perform very well, even after the 06 Holiday has completely faded away. The Xbox 360 has performed at a mediocre level. Not a horrible dissapointment, but definitely not setting the world on fire. A somewhat disturbing issue for the 360 is the fact that it's NPD numbers are trending downwards each month. Instead of gaining steam, it's losing steam. 228K in February, 199K in March, 174K in April and a paltry 155K in May. The May numbers are particularly dissapointing, considering the arrival of the Xbox 360 Elite, and the thought that the Elites arrival would spike sales a bit.
The Playstation 3 has been nothing short of a retail disaster, selling under 100K units for the second month in a row. Only 82K units were sold in both April and May. For comparisons sake, the Nintendo Wii sold more units in May, than the PS3 has sold in the last 3 months combined. Adding insult to injury, the PS3 continues to have problems getting at least one software title to crack the top 10. The Nintendo Wii had 2 games in the top 10, Mario Party 8 at No.2 overall, and Wii Play at No.5. The Xbox 360 had 4 games crack the top 10 in May. Forza 2 at 6, Guitar Hero II at 7, Spiderman 3 at 8 and Command and Conquer 3 at 9.
So where does all this leave us? With an industry that doesn't have a clear leader. Normally, you would look at the numbers over the last 6 months, and the Wii would emerge as the clear leader going forward, but the problem is that the Wii isn't conforming to many of the norms in the video game industry. The attach rate for software for the Nintendo Wii is abnormally low for the so called industry leader. It seems the Wii hardware is selling amazing well, but the software isn't. Sales of Wii-motes and Nunchuks are brisk, most likely do to the fact that many people are buying a Wii, and playing Wii Sports primarily. Normally, when new users pick up a video game system, they typically buy 2 or 3 games within the first 60 days of owning the system, but this isn't happening with the Nintendo Wii. So we can't simply look to Nintendo Wii, and say that the industry is in good hands with the Wii as the market leader, because it's only really showing leadership in one category; hardware sales. The Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 sales, continue to drive home the point that price matters. Once you get past the first couple of million hardcore users, then price becomes a major issue. Dropping $400 plus on a video game system, just isn't in the cards for alot of consumers. Microsoft and Sony need to look long and hard at these NPD numbers, and they need to realize that price really is king. Both companies have to bite the bullet and lower their prices. E3 is in early July, likely before the NPD numbers of June will be available, so Microsoft and Sony can't wait fo the NPD numbers of June before taking action. I expect both companies to consider price drops at e3. Likely one of the two companies will annouce a price drop, and the other will follow with an effective immediately price drop of their own.
chaka
The NPD results for May were just released yesterday, and the numbers paint a pretty bleak picture for both the Xbox 360 and PS3. The Xbox 360 sold only 155,000 units in May, and the PS3 was even worse with a disturbing 82,000 units sold for the 2nd consecutive month. At the same time, the Wii continues to sell well, with Nintendo moving 338,000 systems in May. If you take the numbers from the February thru May period (basically, after Xmas 06 is taken out of the equation), and you average them out, this is what each console has been averaging per month, over the last 4 months.
Nintendo Wii = 323,000 units per month
Xbox 360 = 189,000 units per month
PS3 = 105,250 units per month
As you can see, the Nintendo Wii has continued to perform very well, even after the 06 Holiday has completely faded away. The Xbox 360 has performed at a mediocre level. Not a horrible dissapointment, but definitely not setting the world on fire. A somewhat disturbing issue for the 360 is the fact that it's NPD numbers are trending downwards each month. Instead of gaining steam, it's losing steam. 228K in February, 199K in March, 174K in April and a paltry 155K in May. The May numbers are particularly dissapointing, considering the arrival of the Xbox 360 Elite, and the thought that the Elites arrival would spike sales a bit.
The Playstation 3 has been nothing short of a retail disaster, selling under 100K units for the second month in a row. Only 82K units were sold in both April and May. For comparisons sake, the Nintendo Wii sold more units in May, than the PS3 has sold in the last 3 months combined. Adding insult to injury, the PS3 continues to have problems getting at least one software title to crack the top 10. The Nintendo Wii had 2 games in the top 10, Mario Party 8 at No.2 overall, and Wii Play at No.5. The Xbox 360 had 4 games crack the top 10 in May. Forza 2 at 6, Guitar Hero II at 7, Spiderman 3 at 8 and Command and Conquer 3 at 9.
So where does all this leave us? With an industry that doesn't have a clear leader. Normally, you would look at the numbers over the last 6 months, and the Wii would emerge as the clear leader going forward, but the problem is that the Wii isn't conforming to many of the norms in the video game industry. The attach rate for software for the Nintendo Wii is abnormally low for the so called industry leader. It seems the Wii hardware is selling amazing well, but the software isn't. Sales of Wii-motes and Nunchuks are brisk, most likely do to the fact that many people are buying a Wii, and playing Wii Sports primarily. Normally, when new users pick up a video game system, they typically buy 2 or 3 games within the first 60 days of owning the system, but this isn't happening with the Nintendo Wii. So we can't simply look to Nintendo Wii, and say that the industry is in good hands with the Wii as the market leader, because it's only really showing leadership in one category; hardware sales. The Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 sales, continue to drive home the point that price matters. Once you get past the first couple of million hardcore users, then price becomes a major issue. Dropping $400 plus on a video game system, just isn't in the cards for alot of consumers. Microsoft and Sony need to look long and hard at these NPD numbers, and they need to realize that price really is king. Both companies have to bite the bullet and lower their prices. E3 is in early July, likely before the NPD numbers of June will be available, so Microsoft and Sony can't wait fo the NPD numbers of June before taking action. I expect both companies to consider price drops at e3. Likely one of the two companies will annouce a price drop, and the other will follow with an effective immediately price drop of their own.
chaka