Kunkel Report: Can Sony Make the Big Comeback?

[digitalpress]

The Game Doctor is back at Digital Press, with some musings about the current and future state of Sony.

http://www.digitpress.com/columns/thekunkelreport.htm

Feel free to discuss!

[heybtbm]

The PS3 will start chugging along once some decent games are released. What I think will be the most interesting is comparing software sales of A-list titles like GTA IV. If total console sales mean anything, we could see a 8:1 ratio of 360 versions sold vs. PS3 versions sold. Would a developer even bother with making a PS3 version of a particular game after a spanking like that?

One thing that people tend to forget is the fact that the successor to the 360 is only about 3 years away. The PS4 isn't going to arrive within a year of that. Over it's 10 year life-cycle, I think the PS3 will end up selling more consoles. If for nothing more than the fact that it will be available at retail 4 more years than the 360.

Sony may not be the giant they once were, but they're not going anywhere.

[MachineGex]

The only thing that can save the PS3.......(drum roll)......................GAMES!!!! Sony needs at least 2-3 exclusive "must-have" games. Games so good you forget about all the mistakes sony has made and go out & cash in your IRA for it.

Look at the GameCube, although it was too little too late, RE4 sold a lot of GC systems. If that game came out at the beginning of that systems lifespan and was followed by 2-3 games with the same impact, the GC coulda been a player. (well maybe)

I can't really think of a good reason to buy a PS3 right now. No must-have games, really high price, ummmm yeah, I'll wait. So Sony, where are the "must-have" exlcusive games? Sony better get some quick, before Microsoft really gets rolling behind Halo 3.

[Kid Ice]

The only thing that can save the PS3.......(drum roll)......................GAMES!!!! Sony needs at least 2-3 exclusive "must-have" games. Games so good you forget about all the mistakes sony has made and go out & cash in your IRA for it.

I would have absolutely agreed with you up until the point a few months ago when I felt I had to get a 360 because of Xbox Live Arcade. I had been waiting for a "must have" title to surface for that system too.

[WanganRunner]

PS3 is looking better off now than it was a few months ago.

Killzone is going to build a LOT of interest in the system, IMO. It is the next Gears of War in terms of anticipation level.

The images released for GT5 and the new MGS4 trailer are also building interest in the system.

I think it will make a comeback, but I don't see it being a given that it'll be #1. Honestly, if Nintendo's momentum continues, they will be firmly in the #1 spot, however who knows if that'll happen.

[Lothars]

One thing that people tend to forget is the fact that the successor to the 360 is only about 3 years away. The PS4 isn't going to arrive within a year of that. Over it's 10 year life-cycle, I think the PS3 will end up selling more consoles. If for nothing more than the fact that it will be available at retail 4 more years than the 360.


Which I think is a big mistake on Microsoft's Part to only have a 5 year life cycle on the system, but we will see.

[RCM]

Which I think is a big mistake on Microsoft's Part to only have a 5 year life cycle on the system, but we will see.

If we go by Microsoft's last gen performance we're almost at the half way point.

[Flack]

Great article as usual, Bill. Here are a couple of off the cuff thoughts.

On a shelf In my computer room sits my PS3, disconnected and gathering dust. A couple of months ago I took it to a friend's house for a late night gaming session; the next day, I put the PS3 into semi-retirement.

One of the reasons I bought the PS3 was for Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2. Right around the same time I bought my PS3 (January, 2007) is when rumors of a delay began surfacing. It first got pushed back to March, then June, and now August, although let's say I wouldn't bet any money on it at this point. Another game I was looking forward to playing was Saints Row, after seeing it on a 360. That one was completely cancelled. Despite Sony's marketing/propaganda, the games tell the true story -- and right now, the true story is that, for one reason or another, games are stalling.

Another problem (although not specifically Sony-centric) is this vicious circle of game prices and sizes. My impression is that as prices continue to rise, developers feel they need to cram so much in a game that it becomes overwhelming. The older I get the harder I am finding it to master or even learn the controls to new games. Switching back and forth between two similar games with different control styles (say, two basketball games) is nearly impossible for me any more.

Which ... brings us to the WIi. Both my father and my wife (who hasn't picked up a controller since she beat Gauntlet on the NES back in the early 90's) have played a few rounds of Wii and enjoyed it. The Wii has silly little games that can be picked up and learned within a few minutes. I think Sony and Microsoft have forgotten about those of us with kids and busy schedules. I can't invest 40+ hours of my life into a single game anymore. There was a time when I knew every back alley of Skara Brae and could navigae the Mad Overlord's Proving Grounds with my eye's closed, but these days with rarely hours and more commonly minutes for gaming, games like ExciteTruck start to become much more appealing than Gran Turismo 5 Million.

Can Sony recover this round? I'm not sure. The PS3 costs twice as much as a complete computer system from Wal-Mart which, while perhaps not a top of the line screamer, is capable of playing tens of thousands of games right out of the box. Not only is the PS3 more than twice the price of a Wii, it's approaching the cost of my first car. That, for a game console that doesn't come with a game when you get it home, is simply too much.

Maybe things will turn around. Maybe something more interesting than sports games or first person shooters will come out. Maybe companies will learn how to manipulate that confounded Cell processor or simply harness it enough to start porting games over to it. Whatever happens, I hope it's significant enough to make me hook the damn thing back up.

[scooby105]

Which ... brings us to the WIi. Both my father and my wife (who hasn't picked up a controller since she beat Gauntlet on the NES back in the early 90's) have played a few rounds of Wii and enjoyed it. The Wii has silly little games that can be picked up and learned within a few minutes. I think Sony and Microsoft have forgotten about those of us with kids and busy schedules. I can't invest 40+ hours of my life into a single game anymore. There was a time when I knew every back alley of Skara Brae and could navigae the Mad Overlord's Proving Grounds with my eye's closed, but these days with rarely hours and more commonly minutes for gaming, games like ExciteTruck start to become much more appealing than Gran Turismo 5 Million.



Exactly my thoughts. While I don't have kids, my time is very limited during the school year with grading papers and planning and such. I don't have time to do much besides sit down and play a quick game of something while dinner is cooking. The Wii does an excellent job of providing these options via its games and virtual console games. The Xbox live arcade also does this, but the 360 games for the most part do not. And I already own most of the old stuff, so the live arcade and virtual console stuff doesn't interest me personally.

I end up buying new systems because there is usually a game or two that I have to play on that particular system that I can't get anywhere else. But, $400-600 is way too much for just one or two games. I'm all for the advancement of hardware and technology, but MS and Sony have personally priced me out of both of their systems, and I think they have priced a lot of America out of their systems as well. I'd much rather buy a $600 laptop or put $600 toward savings for an HDTV than spend $600 on a video game system that can play fancy DVDs that my old 19" Magnavox TV can't tell the difference from regular ones.

[Ed Oscuro]

I'm no fan of the porn industry argument anymore (although I'm still wondering where the money came for Pirates)...

Asking Sony to guarantee the PS3 will still be alive in 2015 (although they did say that previously) seems strange, but we've all seen how much simply attempting to catch up to the new hardware can hurt developers, console manufacturers, and gamers - all of whom end up shelling out more. The constant drive towards bigger and better things won't end any time soon, but it really sounds like console gamers want to be able to take a breather (developers feel likewise).

We'll have to see if Sony can grab on again this time. Microsoft is also losing money on the console front, so I can't imagine they're in a hurry to push to the next generation, and Nintendo doesn't seem ready to push past the PS3's capabilities either.

Maybe we'll see ray-tracing in computer games by the time the next console "generation" is scheduled to roll around. It remains to be seen whether enough people will have new TVs by then, however; many of the improvements another console generation would spur could end up being absorbed by effects. Current HDR implementations aren't perfect, but they do challenge the abilities of most consumer televisions.

[goldenaxeboy]

Sony won't catch up, the 360 will win in the end anyway even though the wii is dominating now. but what about 3 to 4 years down the line? the 360 will win PS3 will lose end of story.

[swlovinist]

It all comes down to pricing and games. The 360 might have a banner year, with Halo and Mass Effect, but the PS3 has some good titles coming out as well. If they can weather this bad season and shave off another $50 and add a rumble, you can then see them as a contender. Definately long run. The PS3 just came out horribly overpriced. My vote is on the Wii, because they are the only system to be value priced at the momment.

[sabre2922]

This is the first time in my 25 years of gaming that I havent upgraded to the "next-gen" systems within the same month of their respective launches....and you know what? It doesnt really bother me.

Hell Im still perfectly content with playing my PS2s and enjoying the many great games that I can now pick up for $20 or less many of those games are very good to AAA games.

I know of 3 friends within the last couple of months that have bought NEW PS2s to either replace their old ones or to pick one up for the first time and one of those ppl include a devout Xbox360 fanboy who has been playing many of my "old" PS2 games more than any of his 360 games.

Anhyooo back to the subject at hand.

YES I do think the Playstation 3 will eventually be a successful console for Sony BUT HOW successful is the real question.

I do not agree that the PS3 has no chance of "catching up to" the Xbox360 or the Wii in total sales within the next couple of years.

I like many other fellow gamers here have seen all of this before even if on a slightly lesser scale $$$ wise with the old 8-bit and 16-bit "system wars" and this whole PS3/360/Wii thing seems oh so very new to the younglings and even the majority of the press acts as though all of this is a new thing.

The truth; this is the same game that was played out years ago a couple times over in both the 80's and 90's with the likes of Nintendo, Sega , Atari, NEC and even 3DO.

The big difference is that this game is being played by the big boys and only the big boys $$$$.

NONE of the big 3 Sony,Microsoft or Nintendo are going ANYWHERE yet and are in the game for the long haul.

Hell if they werent Nintendo would have went strictly handheld after the Gamecube and Microsoft would have thrown in the towel with a COMPLETE 360 RECALL and bailed out of the game altogether.

The biggest question on my mind is NOT if the PS3 will be the first Playstation console to end up in last place but if the Wii has the staying power that I believe the PS3 and 360 have and by all means I hope that it does as gameplay should always be the most important aspect of gaming.

I also think the 360 will have MAYBE A 5-6 YEAR LIFE SPAN I just dont believe Microsoft will EVER support a system for as long as Sony has proven it does with both the PSone and PS2 of course this could change if the 360 turns out to be the dominating console if this generation but for some reason I have doubts about even that best case scenario.


Heres a new one: I think there is a good possibility that Nintendo MIGHT release another game system within the next couple years that could be an amalgamation of both console and handheld while still supporting both the Wii and the DS;)

[goldenaxeboy]

Even though sony say's that PS3 is a ten year console it doesan't matter because after 6 or 7 years people will be so into there PS4 that the ten year life span will mean nothing for PS3.

[Lothars]

Even though sony say's that PS3 is a ten year console it doesan't matter because after 6 or 7 years people will be so into there PS4 that the ten year life span will mean nothing for PS3.

Man you've made two posts in this thread that I think are completely wrong

I think because the PS3 has so much untapped potential that we will see last 10 years and I also think that the PS3 will maybe not win this generation but it will beat out the 360, it might not beat out the Wii though

I have all three systems and at the moment my most played system is the 360
followed by the PS3 and at the moment the Wii is barely touched and only because of Resident Evil 4 Wii

I am really dissapointed by the Wii at the moment and I do have faith on the system, it's gonna take some huge games from both First and Third Party to have it comeback in my opinion.

I still think we have a long way to go and I still think that PS3 will surprise alot more people as it goes on, It just needs to drop the price by at least another 150 dollars.

[G-Boobie]

First off, I'm impressed at the lack of trolling in this discussion. Kudos all around.


I received a PS3 from my fiancee for our anniversary on Monday, and I like it very much. (Ninja Gaiden Sigma and Resistance helped me with that, I think.:D) I know its early, but I own all three current consoles, and I think that when more games of AAA quality come along, you'll see a gradual shift away from Xbox 360 and even Wii.

Wii graphics look acceptable at the moment, but in two or three years they will NOT. I bought RE4 for the Wii, mostly for the novelty value, and it looks worse than the PS2 version, even with component cables. Now, go to 1UP or IGN and look at the Unreal Tournament III video, or watch the Bioshock 'hunting the Big Daddy' video on XBL. That difference is only going to get more obvious as this console cycle continues.

I've personally owned 3 Xbox 360s, due to various hardware failures; you've all heard the story a hundred times by now. I think that we've only really seen the tip of the iceberg here. Everytime I boot the Xbox up, I get weird framerate issues, random crashes, sound lag.... Basically, I want to like the stupid goddamn thing, but it just wont let me, and nevermind the games. The 360 has developed a reputation for failure and poor design which isnt going away any time soon.

I guess my point is that even with the idiot mistakes they've made, Sony has so far turned out to be the LEAST incompetent player in this console war. Their problems are mostly related to price, which will of course come down eventually, and a lack of games, which will be remedied (I hope). If things dont radically shift, I think Sony wins this round.

Just my two cents.

G-Boobie, out.

[sabre2922]

Even though sony say's that PS3 is a ten year console it doesan't matter because after 6 or 7 years people will be so into there PS4 that the ten year life span will mean nothing for PS3.

OK I wont go into all the reasons why this is sooo wrong but I will point out ONE that any gamer of any generation can understand.

----------------------------------------------------------
The same could have been said about the PS2 but its still selling very well in both the U.S. and overseas hell two of the stores in my area STILL sell out of the slimline PS2s to this day on a regular basis and thats no BS of course they get restocked within a day or two but thats still damn impressive with a now almost 8 year old console.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Im going to go out on a limb here with this theory but here goes:

I think there is a very good possibility that the PS3 might have an actual SOLID 10 year run and may outlast just about ANY OTHER game console before it.

Ill try to explain:

The PS2 will have had 8 good years by the time the last of the good PS2 games is released other than sports titles and kids games. Now I do believe that Sony will keep selling the PS2 for even longer than the PSone after all it does have more uses than the PSone in that it still plays DVD movies out of the box.

Now this is just speculation and theory from an old gamer but I think the PS3 has an advantage within all those expensive high-tech innards it holds in that shiny case and that means that its true potential might not be tapped for even longer than the PS2s true potential wich ended up being right at 5 years with games like Metal Gear Solid 3 and God of War 2 considering both GRAPHICS (of course) and gameplay mechanics.

The PS3 has two distinct advantages over the 360 that could very likely contribute to an extended longevity far beyond what has been the console norm even for a Playstation console.

These are:

BLUE RAY: out of the box: No add ons (360 for HDDVD) and it looks as though Blue Ray is winning the format war across the board and has much more acceptance and support from the general public than HDdvd.
Meaning that Blue Ray will be the next DVD and within a few years become the standard format along with regular DVD hell it might even overtake DVD once Blue Ray players and recorders drop in price.

CELL: IM no fanboy but any gamer within their right mind has to accept that the Cell processor is a mighty powerful piece of tech and if the old EE chip in the PS2 can produce God of War 2 quality graphics now just think of what the PS3s CELL processor will be capable of by its 3rd or 4th generation of software in a few years.

All in all that adds up to a very possible long life and bright future for the PS3.....IF sony drops the PS3 to a more "consumer friendly" price point before it looses too much ground to the competing consoles.

[Ed Oscuro]

The PS3 might indeed have a ten year run; it basically comes down to photo-realistic graphics. We'll have to see if the industry starts making games that push physics-oriented gameplay in a direction where the PS3 finds itself panting for breath, however. Eventually even the Cell won't be enough. Raytracing (and raytraced-supplemented physics - raytracing allows easy collision)? I think we can forget about that. I don't know if that's quite ten years down the road. It might be closer than people think, though.

[jajaja]

Even though sony say's that PS3 is a ten year console it doesan't matter because after 6 or 7 years people will be so into there PS4 that the ten year life span will mean nothing for PS3.

The last PSX game was released in 2005, PSX was released in 1994. Thats over 10 years of lifespand. PS2 was released in 2000, still PSX games was released until 2005. PS2 is now about 7 years old, still games are comming out for it. I think we will see PS2 games until 2010. The same can happend with PS3 too. All depends on how sales turns out in the years to come.

[heybtbm]

If the Wii has shown (or reminded) us of anything, it's that having cutting-edge graphics doesn't guarantee fun games.

I think that this point is the most misrepresented issue on Digital Press.

Whenever someone criticizes the Wii's graphical abilities, someone else always has to point out that graphics don't make the game. That's not the point. Sure, there are graphics-whores out there, but even "fun", A-list games can take you out of the experience with poor graphics and sound time to time (example: Shadow of the Colossus). A good game is a good game...but it's a better game with cutting edge graphics and sound. That's why instead of taking three steps forward, the Wii will always be taking two steps forward and one step back.

[Nintendo Gamer]

.....

[BillKunkel]

There has always been console 'rivalries' but I don't recall any new system stumbling as bad as the PS3 has...

And there's no reason why systems can't have a 10-year lifespan. The customer base for systems now is incredibly huge, compared to a generation or two ago. With the hardware becoming more complex, and software development times now in years, it will naturally take longer to fully exploit a console's potential. And since the more successful systems have survived years after they've been made 'obsolete' by new consoles, maybe companies shouldn't be so quick to rush them out.

When discussing disaster-plagued rollouts it would be disrespectful to ignore the 3DO and the Virtual Boy. Even the NES had to dump the dumb robot-and-blocks games before US gamers took it seriously.

But as for the 10 year PS3 run, I agree it is absolutely possible. I mean, I can still enjoy a game like, oh, I don't know, Tenchu: Stealth Assassin for the PSone. No joystick control, simple and blocky graphics but it's still a lot of fun because it was well designed and, while not state of the art, the interface is simply brilliant and the graphics are good enough that they don't hurt the game experience. How much more might developers do on the PS3? We can see that dev groups are still making major advances on the PS2 and that platform is still viable. As long as Sony doesn't get stupid and start that "PS4" ball rolling they have the money to let the PS3 killer apps develop. My point was that the game consumer has no reason to trust grandiose assurances of a lengthy lifetime on a system where 3rd party developers are already backing off. So Sony has got to man up and offer a GUARANTEE that it will support the system until 2015. If at any point Sony stops servicing and supporting the system before that point, they will have lost face in the game industry and could even face more litigation (as if blowing up laptops around the world with its batteries wasn't enough). On the other hand, if it succeeds, the R&D mania that drives the costs of console development increasingly skyward will fall solely on MS and Nintendo, leaving Sony free to make money off a machine that will be able to stand up and do tricks for years.

As I said in my column, Sony have been total jerks on this rollout (did you guys SEE the bizarro world PS3 commercials they ran in Europe? If you think that doll ad creeped you out, man, it was nothing!), but the company can still save this system. Of course, by the time it does, if it does, the software will probably no longer be compatible with the current PS3s, but that's typical of the good faith the industry doesn't keep with its most loyal consumers.

Meanwhile, PC sales are up and with the 360 offering online PC convergence while the Wii boasts a wider demographic wingspread, one thing's for sure: this will be the most interesting generational war in decades.

[Iron Draggon]

Sony needs to get a grip and admit that they priced themselves right out of this generation of console wars before they even got in full swing... $600 is simply too much, and the $700 3DO should've taught them that in the 90's!

[goldenaxeboy]

There is no qestion in my mind the PS3 will be a ten year product but the qestion is how good of a ten year product? the untaped power of the PS3 everyone is talking about will be shown in the first 5 to 6 years to me sony will finish third. the wii did show me somthing. that it belongs in this generation console war no dout. the 360 is leading in the next gen console war and microsoft won't give it up I promise you that.

[Kid Ice]

Sony needs to get a grip and admit that they priced themselves right out of this generation of console wars before they even got in full swing... $600 is simply too much, and the $700 3DO should've taught them that in the 90's!

3DO...3DO...3DO.

How many people actually remember the 3DO costing $700? I know the Game Doctor does, and Stonic probably does, and Joe does because he *bought* one.

I don't think most people even remember the 3DO costing that much. I think they read about it on their internets or in a "history of gaming" book and said "Wow! The 3DO cost that much?"

So I don't think the problem was the 3DO costing $700. I think the problem people didn't know what a 3DO *was* when it first came out.

Now do you think most people know what a Playstation 3 is? Yes. So please, no more of the 3DO comparisons. Don't make me write a list of the reasons it just doesn't work. I'm tired.

[BillKunkel]

3DO...3DO...3DO.

How many people actually remember the 3DO costing $700? I know the Game Doctor does, and Stonic probably does, and Joe does because he *bought* one.

I don't think most people even remember the 3DO costing that much. I think they read about it on their internets or in a "history of gaming" book and said "Wow! The 3DO cost that much?"

So I don't think the problem was the 3DO costing $700. I think the problem people didn't know what a 3DO *was* when it first came out.

Now do you think most people know what a Playstation 3 is? Yes. So please, no more of the 3DO comparisons. Don't make me write a list of the reasons it just doesn't work. I'm tired.

No, it's just a system that always comes up when botched rollouts are discussed. The 3DO was actually a pretty good system but it was overhyped and obviously overpriced, despite a business model that Trip Hawkins could probably still sell to VCs today.

The difference was primarily that 3DO itself produced nothing, it merely licensed the technology. Of course, it lost a fortune in R&D when the Panasonics and company pulled the plug.

But I have to doubt whether you remember the 3DO's rollout yourself, because there wasn't a gamer in America who didn't know about the 3DO upon rollout because of all the different big name hardware manufacturers who were marketing it as well as the incredible coverage in the game magazines, which we had many of back then. The gamers simply couldn't spend or convince their parents to spend that much money. Panasonic gave me mine or I wouldn't have had one either. Whether today's gamers know their histoy or not is a moot point; the fact is that the 3DO did NOT fail because it was not publicized sufficiently. Jeez.

Having a number after your system's name doesn't guarantee anything. I believe I already observed that no system has dominated the market for three consecutive generations in the history of the business. So brand familiarity, it seems, can be a disadvantage in this industry (ask Atari, Sega, NEC, etc. etc.).

[Kid Ice]

But I have to doubt whether you remember the 3DO's rollout yourself, because there wasn't a gamer in America who didn't know about the 3DO upon rollout because of all the different big name hardware manufacturers who were marketing it as well as the incredible coverage in the game magazines, which we had many of back then. The gamers simply couldn't spend or convince their parents to spend that much money. Panasonic gave me mine or I wouldn't have had one either. Whether today's gamers know their histoy or not is a moot point; the fact is that the 3DO did NOT fail because it was not publicized sufficiently. Jeez.

Fair enough. I think that the PS3 is far more recognizable now than 3DO was then, based primarily on all the madness around the holiday with people camping out and all the ebay nonsense. The PS3 passes my "mother" test...if I ask my mother if she knows what a PS3 is she would say yes. I don't think she ever knew what a 3DO was. But it seems we agree the comparison between the two systems is sort of pointless beyond a "who screwed up more?" type of thing.

[sabre2922]

A-list games can take you out of the experience with poor graphics and sound time to time (example: Shadow of the Colossus). A good game is a good game...but it's a better game with cutting edge graphics and sound. That's why instead of taking three steps forward, the Wii will always be taking two steps forward and one step back.

WHOOOAAA! DONT STEP ON MY SHADOW man dont do it:grrr: heh

I mean it dont step on my shadow......OF THE COLOSSUS that is:mad:


its ok shadow he didnt mean it really:drinking:

[j_factor]

PS3 needs to start selling more if it's going to last 10 years. Consoles can last that long, and have before, but only with good market share. PS3's sales so far haven't been indicative of a prolonged lifespan. I guess Neo Geo's long life means something, but SNK never took the big losses on hardware that Sony is taking. That ten year lifespan ain't happening without either hugely increased market share or a profitable business model.

[lendelin]

I agree with the OP that the PS3 can catch up, no doubt about it. However, the longevity of consoles touted by Sony about the PS2 and now the PS3 is unrealistic and PR-BS, nothing else. The Ps3 will last as long as the PS2; if Sony is lucky, not more than 7 years.

Actually, to keep the PS2 alive until now backfired and is not a smart business decission: the certainly robust profits are ouitweighed by the obstacle to get the PS3 established. The Wii as a low-priced competitor and alternative to the PS3 would be surely enough for Sony, the PS2 acts additionally as an in-house competition to get the PS3 established.

The so far disappointing performance of the PS3 is for me part of a much more puzzling question. In 2006 and 2007 we have a discrepancy between the solid but not overwhelmingly good sales for the two next generation consoles and fantastic sales for the new "old" console Wii and the PS2 as low priced-alternatives.

For some time I thought maybe the videogame market in the US might experience a slow-down like the Japanese market, but the videogame industry is expanding, has great sales, online gaming is thriving, and additionally Nintendo tapped into new demographics (women, casual gamers, and non-gamers, older gamers) to an extent which is truly surprising.

The 360 has robust, stable sales each month, but not dramatically good, and the PS3 is disappointing measured on expectations. From the high price point (less sales calculated and accepted by Sony in order to push Blue Ray) did not the 360 profit (not even in the following months after Gears of War which didn't help to sell more systems) BUT ---trara--- the last generation Wii with a new controller.

My explanation for the discrepancy between lackluster sales of the two new systems and the two "old" systems Wii and PS2: the small installed base of HDTVs. Not only does the small number of HDTVs make the PS3 less attarctive as a Blue Ray Disc player in 2007 compared to the PS2 as a DVD player in 2001, it is also an obstacle to push the new systems.

Both systems are marketed as high definition systems and truly shine when attached to a HDTV. They are made and tailored for the new generation of TVs, and I think like me consumers associate the two systems with HDTVs.

In lack of buyers profiles, behaviors and intents, I use anecdotal evidence. Not only a videogame nut like myself bought an HDTV in order to enjoy the 360, also two neighbors of mine, both casual gamers, link the 360 and PS3 to HDTVs: one will get a new TV in a week, and already talks about getting a 360 soon. the other neighbor told me that he waits buying a PS3 until he gets a HDTV.

Certainly the high price point, the need for quick game fixes of short and uncomplicated games thrives the lackluster sales of the PS3 and the successful sales of the Wii besides many other factors, but I think one overlooked main reason for the so far solid but not especially good sales of the two new systems is indeed the small installation base of HDTVs.

To make a comment to Rob (Flack): I'm all for games which are characterized by easy pick-up and play; but I'm for games that are easy to pick up and deliver rich gameplay, I'm not for short easy games that deliver shallow gameplay with a gimmicky controller like the Wii. ;) One of the biggest questions for me since last November and the success of the Wii is the inclusion of the new demographics of players and its consequences. I always said the more gamers the better, but I'm not so sure anymore if the success of the Wii is a good thing or a bad thing for the game industry.

A comment to Bill Kunkels assessmenmt of the success of Blue Ray: it seems that Sony bet on the right horse. After Blockbuster published a month ago numbers that show that Blue Ray outsells and outrents High Def DVDs by 5:1, Blockbuster announced a couple of days ago that they will only carry Blue Ray from now on. It seems that the decision to use the PS3 in order to push for the copyrighted Blue Ray will be successful.

[BillKunkel]

I think you meant to say no company has dominated the market for 3 generations. Sony was the first to do it twice (and Nintendo might be the second..), which is why I said people expected more with the PS3. Seriously, a $500-$600 system with NO pack-in game(s)?! Hell, even the 3DO included a handful of discs (one was a "sampler" disc with digitized footage from the animated Batman show). And as you even mentioned, some of the ad campaigns Sony has put out have been ... bizarre. And let's not forget all the infamous press releases (i.e. lies), such as the "PS3 shortage" problem ;)

Thanks; that is, of course, what I meant.

[BillKunkel]

Fair enough. I think that the PS3 is far more recognizable now than 3DO was then, based primarily on all the madness around the holiday with people camping out and all the ebay nonsense. The PS3 passes my "mother" test...if I ask my mother if she knows what a PS3 is she would say yes. I don't think she ever knew what a 3DO was.

That, friend Ice, is an excellent gauge you have devised. For example, your mom probably knows what an iPod is, right (at least she knows it holds music)? But Blu-Ray vs HDTV format arguments, for example, would cause her to leave the room, right?

I like that scale a lot. :D

[BillKunkel]

A comment to Bill Kunkels assessmenmt of the success of Blue Ray: it seems that Sony bet on the right horse. After Blockbuster published a month ago numbers that show that Blue Ray outsells and outrents High Def DVDs by 5:1, Blockbuster announced a couple of days ago that they will only carry Blue Ray from now on. It seems that the decision to use the PS3 in order to push for the copyrighted Blue Ray will be successful.

On the other hand, Blockbuster doesn't carry porn, which has traditionally been the killer app for all visual-based consumer technologies, so I wouldn't necessarily conclude that BR enjoys a similar dominance based on Blockbuster's numbers. Also, renting a system is a lot different from buying it and since this study appears to have combined the numbers, I suspect a lot of people are renting BR systems to see if it's worth all that extra $$ before they buy the less expensive system.

Just as it's too soon to declare a winner in the current console wars, it is FAR to early to make conclusions based on rental numbers from Blockbuster (I may well be wrong, but I suspect BB does a lot more business in hardware rental than sales).

[G-Boobie]

It is. The poster noted inferiority of the Wii's graphics compared to 360 and PS3, as if to imply people won't play it because in a few years it will look so dated as to be "unacceptable". My point is, people play games for reasons other than just graphics.

As a quick digression, I'd argue that people are buying the Wii because of a profoundly successful marketing plan. I own one, and I enjoy it. However, there are no 'games for gamers' worth playing on the platform except Zelda and a port of a two year old game, and nevermind the graphics.

While graphics are not the most important aspect of a game (I consider myself a retro gamer and spend most of my gaming time on a Saturn or SNES), it is a very important factor. And when you line up a game like Bioshock or Ratchet and Clank Future next to any given Wii game, the difference is pretty staggering.

You forget that we're going to be a 'hi-def nation' in a couple years time. I think its dumb, myself, but when people are forced to start upgrading their televisions and media players, how their movies, shows and GAMES look will have a huge impact on their buying decisions; its just the mentality of the moment.

So yes. I'd argue that in a years time, with a two or three years left in the Wii life cycle, we're going to see a huge move away from the machine by third party developers and consumers, due largely to the obsolescence of the hardware, including its graphical capabilities. Whether we like it or not, the age of 'Hi-def gaming' is upon us, and the Wii doesnt have the graphical edge it needs to stay relevant in the minds of the gaming populace at large, or survive the coming drought of third party games. That will leave the fight between Sony and Microsoft, and I think that Sony is the least dumb of those two platforms.

Just, of course, My Opinion.

G-Boobie, out.

[G-Boobie]

On the other hand, Blockbuster doesn't carry porn, which has traditionally been the killer app for all visual-based consumer technologies

True, but have you SEEN hi-def porn?

Every zit and celluloid crease in the bare ass of every one in front of the camera....

Ugh.... No thanks.

[Rob2600]

I think because the PS3 has so much untapped potential that we will see it last 10 years

I remember back in 1996/1997, someone at Sony said the original PlayStation would be a viable home console for ten years. Of course, five years after it's debut, Sony released the PlayStation 2.

In 2000, someone at Sony said the PlayStation 2 would be a viable home console for ten years because Toshiba's "Emotion Engine" CPU had so much potential. Six years after its debut, Sony released the PlayStation 3.

To say a home video game console will be actively supported for an entire decade is ridiculous. In the real world, ten year old computer technology is considered ancient. Would most people buy a 66 MHz 486 computer today? Of course not. Will most people buy a PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, or Wii nine years from now? Of course not.

When Sony executives promise their PlayStation consoles will still be alive and kicking a decade after launch, I laugh. Traditionally, home video game consoles have a five or six year active lifespan. That's technology. Sony needs to stop exaggerating.

[Rob2600]

While graphics are not the most important aspect of a game (I consider myself a retro gamer and spend most of my gaming time on a Saturn or SNES), it is a very important factor. And when you line up a game like Bioshock or Ratchet and Clank Future next to any given Wii game, the difference is pretty staggering.

If graphics mattered, the Lynx would have outsold the GameBoy, the Jaguar would have outsold the SNES, the Nintendo 64 would have outsold the PlayStation, the Dreamcast would have outsold the Nintendo 64, the Gamecube would have outsold the PlayStation 2, the PSP would be outselling the DS, etc.

[G-Boobie]

If graphics mattered, the Lynx would have outsold the GameBoy, the Jaguar would have outsold the SNES, the Nintendo 64 would have outsold the PlayStation, the Dreamcast would have outsold the Nintendo 64, the Gamecube would have outsold the PlayStation 2, the PSP would be outselling the DS, etc.

You're employing broken logic.

Those platforms you're referring failed for reasons OTHER than graphics, sport. The Lynx had no quality software or marketing, the Jaguar didnt work on TOP of looking horrible, the N64 had no third party developer support, the Dreamcast was the final desperate lunge for marketshare for Sega, the Gamecube was the N64 all over again, and the PSP has an inherently flawed control scheme. Graphics have nothing to do with it.

[Rob2600]

Graphics have nothing to do with it.

That's exactly my point. Other factors are more important than graphics.

[DreamTR]

I don't think there is anything difficult about this system selling once people realize Blu-Ray players alone cost quite a bit of money, and buying this as your Blu-Ray means a free video game system that is untapped with potential.

As soon as Final Fantasy, GTA, and Gran Turismo come out, this will sell. I'm surprised with the way the market has been structured over the past decade that anyone even needs to bring this up and analyze it in the first place. There is plenty of support for this system, and like the PS1 and PS2, there will be support for these games a lot longer than any other system has done.

Proven track record. Sony is 2 for 2. Granted it's difficult to wager on Blu-Ray over HDDVD, but in terms of licenses and games, they have nothing to worry about.

Put this against Sega, who everyone adored, but they could not really support their systems very long, or even Microsoft, who supported the heck out of that Xbox, but they don't do it any longer.

[geneshifter]

I would have absolutely agreed with you up until the point a few months ago when I felt I had to get a 360 because of Xbox Live Arcade. I had been waiting for a "must have" title to surface for that system too.

LOL, I also spend money on the live arcade. It's pretty darned expensive for some of those titles, really, but I also love getting the good stuff like Galaga, Doom, etc... I just read that Wing Commander is coming this week so booyah. I have a few of the released titles but I play mostly in the arcade.

If the PS3 were to get something like the arcade on the PSN and Warhawk turns out great, I may get one again by Christmas.

[Kid Ice]

That, friend Ice, is an excellent gauge you have devised. For example, your mom probably knows what an iPod is, right (at least she knows it holds music)? But Blu-Ray vs HDTV format arguments, for example, would cause her to leave the room, right?

Correct.

Mom knows Atari, Pac Man, Donkey Kong, Asteroids, Super Mario, Mortal Kombat, Tomb Raider, Wii, etc

Mom don't know Robotron, Vectrex, Streets of Rage, deathmatching, Neo Geo, Radiant Silvergun, or uhh...3DO. ;-)

[G-Boobie]

A few relevancies for you, troll.

Firstly, the Wii is technically inferior to both the 360 and PS3. There's no arguing against that fact. And when developers have had time to fully exploit the architecture of the 360 and PS3, the Wii will have been left in the dust. Its not just graphics. Its enemies/objects on screen, physics, lighting, terrain deformation, AI, scripted events, etc. etc. etc. Graphics are the LEAST of the Wii's worries; but they ARE the most obvious difference when average joe compares it to the other two current systems.

While we're on that subject, developers have already figured out how to exploit the Wii hardware; its a goddamn gamecube. Its not getting any better on that end. Sorry hoss; 700 Mhz is 700 Mhz.

As for the Wii life cycle comment, I admit I wasn't as clear as I should have been. What I meant to say was this: I think that the casual gamer that Nintendo's been courting also has a garage full of home exercise equipment and late night QVC buys, and that when they get bored of Wii Sports, their Nintendo console will ALSO be in the garage, and where does that leave Nintendo? It leaves them competing for the same market that they've abandoned to Sony and Nintendo. And they'll have a Hell of a time catching up.

Regarding your troll about my N64 and Gamecube observation; from a third party support and public perception perspective, both the N64 and Gamecube were failures when compared to alternative platforms available at the same time; those platforms being the PS1, PS2, and Xbox respectively; the Saturn and Dreamcast were bigger commercial failures, but I'd argue that they have fared FAR better in the realm of public opinion.

The PSP control layout sucks. One analog nub? Dumb. There you go.

How I got so far off topic in this thread, I have no idea.

You are of course free to disagree, point out flaws in my arguments, even correct me if I'm wrong. Just try to do so like an adult, OK? Thanks.

'can't believe I bothered to respond'. Then don't next time.

G-Boobie, out.

[j_factor]

As soon as Final Fantasy, GTA, and Gran Turismo come out, this will sell.

I don't even know how many times I've heard this about an unsuccessful (or at least languishing) system.

Saturn: "As soon as Nights, Tomb Raider, and Sonic come out, this will sell"

There are no guarantees in this industry, not even with three high-profile games in development.

[Rob2600]

Firstly, the Wii is technically inferior to both the 360 and PS3. There's no arguing against that fact. And when developers have had time to fully exploit the architecture of the 360 and PS3, the Wii will have been left in the dust. Its not just graphics. Its enemies/objects on screen, physics, lighting, terrain deformation, AI, scripted events, etc. etc. etc. Graphics are the LEAST of the Wii's worries; but they ARE the most obvious difference when average joe compares it to the other two current systems.

If all of those things actually mattered to the "average Joe," then the Sega Dreamcast and Nintendo 64 would have outsold the Sony PlayStation. The truth is, "average Joes" kept coming into my store to buy PlayStations for $99, even though Dreamcasts were available for $99. It didn't make any sense to me at all, but that's what happens...once a product garners a "cool" status, people want it, even if there are better products out there.

Look at Apple's iPod. It's more expensive and has fewer features than competing products, but people would rather have the iPod anyway. Why? Because it's cool.

Wii is now the cool product to own. Nintendo's marketing has done a great job so far.

[heybtbm]

Look at Apple's iPod. It's more expensive and has fewer features than competing products, but people would rather have the iPod anyway. Why? Because it's cool.

Apple products sell because of their high quality first and foremost. They're more expensive because people know that Apple prodcuts are going to last longer than their competitors products. Also, don't forget that "Ipod" is now a household name and synonymous with portable music. All these things factor in well before the "cool" factor.

[Kid Ice]

Apple products sell because of their high quality first and foremost. They're more expensive because people know that Apple prodcuts are going to last longer than their competitors products.

They do? I've never heard of an electronics product malfunctioning as much as the ipod. That is until the Xbox 360.

[WanganRunner]

They do? I've never heard of an electronics product malfunctioning as much as the ipod. That is until the Xbox 360.


+1

Unlike the computers, Ipods are generally very trouble-prone.

Somehow the issues haven't carried over and tarnished Apple's overall quality reputation, but my wife is on her 3rd Ipod due to 2 previous failures.

[YoshiM]

They do? I've never heard of an electronics product malfunctioning as much as the ipod. That is until the Xbox 360.

I have to agree as well. Plus if you own a Shuffle and the battery goes you'll either have to send it to Apple (who will replace the battery for some service fee plus $6.95 shipping), do surgery on it yourself (I've seen FAQ's out there) or toss it (unless you bought some replacement plan from where ever you got it from).

iPods are "cool" because Apple made them cool with the sleek design and a massive marketing push (and opening the iPod up to Windows users didn't hurt either). It was like the Sony Walkman all over again. Only more expensive.

[BillKunkel]

True, but have you SEEN hi-def porn?

Every zit and celluloid crease in the bare ass of every one in front of the camera....

Ugh.... No thanks.

Yeah, I have seen it, and so far it looks awful, no question. While I was up at LFP they had gotten a reverse-engineered BR porn DVD but didn't have a BR machine to test it on. So they had to use the T&T office's PS3.

In short, to quote the late, great Warren Zevon, it ain't that pretty at all. Especially when they put oil on the girls to give those pimples and bruises a bit of lens flare. But you KNOW porn will continue to sell so they'll either require better looking women or better makeup and will probably get both. And don't forget the good old airbrush and photoshop.

I'm not a big porn fan in standard definition, though, so I definitely see your point. It's just that, from an economic standpoint, eliminating porn from your DVD system's library is just plain nuts.

And you know, porn isn't the only field facing a problem with higher rez; pro wrestling is also under the gun. WWE has done several sample shoots and the punches looked phonier and even the 30-something wrestlers looked older and more wrinkled.

Sometimes clarity isn't exactly what you want, eh?

[Phosphor Dot Fossils]

You wanna hear about who doesn't want HDTV? Ask any on-camera TV personality over the age of 30 if you want an earful. LOL Not quite porn or wrestling...but at times, not that far removed either!

[Kid Ice]

Jay Leno looks like a ventriloquist's dummy in hi def.

[Lothars]

Jay Leno looks like a ventriloquist's dummy in hi def.

What you mean he's not a ventriloquist dummy?

Damn I never realized ;)

[Nesmaster]

I think Sony will pick up some steam with some titles later this year/early next year, but after that they really haven't shown much software yet. They'll get some numbers, but I'm in serious doubt that they'll pull off #1 with the Wii selling like mad (about to pass the 360 by the looks of things) and with the 360 having such stellar 1st and 3rd party games. The price doesn't help much either, when outside of Sony's 1st party games, the same experience can be had on the 360, better and cheaper.

[G-Boobie]

If all of those things actually mattered to the "average Joe," then the Sega Dreamcast and Nintendo 64 would have outsold the Sony PlayStation. The truth is, "average Joes" kept coming into my store to buy PlayStations for $99, even though Dreamcasts were available for $99. It didn't make any sense to me at all, but that's what happens...once a product garners a "cool" status, people want it, even if there are better products out there.

Wii is now the cool product to own. Nintendo's marketing has done a great job so far.

I totally agree in regards to Nintendo's marketing, which is staggering in its scope and power. I just think momentum of that magnitude is difficult to maintain for long outside of the 'hardcore gamer' constituency; Not everyone who owns a Wii is a hardcore gamer, true. Do soccer moms care about artifacts and depth of vision? Probably not. But I'd argue that they dont care about gaming as a hobby or lifestyle either. Its going to be hard for Nintendo to convince that group to buy a new game every month, I think.

Either way, I think that Sony has the ability to succeed, or even 'win' again this console cycle... Despite itself. Call me crazy, but Microsoft has a lemon console on their hands, and Nintendo still has to prove to me personally that the Wii has long term value. their last two consoles have failed in that regard.

All of course, my opinion.

G-Boobie, out.

[Moo Cow]

If they sold it without the Blueray drive, I might buy it. I'm not shelling out a half grand for a system, they're out of their fucking minds. They could then probably sell it for Wii prices, get interest developed in the system, get more people to buy it, etc. They could still sell the one with the Blueray drive, but seriously, it was a bad move to tack it on4.

[tom]

trouble with PS3 and 360 is the games gotta look and play good. coding games is not as easy as it used to be.

and ideas....can't have 100s driving/beat 'em ups/sports/ninja games.


Nintendo got it easy, just bring up another Mario or Zelda, and you're on a winner, people don't complain....

[Nick Goracke]

I normally enjoy your articles Bill, but this one really had me scratching my head. I originally did a double-take, thinking maybe it had been written months ago...


the sense that Blu-Ray may be the Beta Max of the early 21st Century

If we're going by the numbers, Blu-Ray is selling more hardware and software than its competitor by a pretty large margin. This stigma about Blu-Ray = Beta Max may have been alive 8-12 months ago, but it's clearly the front-runner now.

Even then, does anyone outside of a select few dorks (us) remember this 25 year old video format, never-mind let it affect purchasing habits?


And then Sony shot itself in the corporate foot yet again by announcing it would not permit porn to license its Blu-Ray tech

This actually never happened, but some people never made it past the first few headlines to read the real story.


By waiting that additional year, it is generally conceded that the SNES lost the war to the Genesis during this generation.

A pretty US-centric view. Based on worldwide sales, the SNES was a pretty clear number 1. I'd even argue that it had a slight edge in the U.S...


So here’s what I’m suggesting, Sony boys: Guarantee that you and other publishers will continue to support the PS3 until at least 2015.

Sony has been driving this point home in countless interviews ever since launch.

[j_factor]

If we're going by the numbers, Blu-Ray is selling more hardware and software than its competitor by a pretty large margin. This stigma about Blu-Ray = Beta Max may have been alive 8-12 months ago, but it's clearly the front-runner now.

Blu-Ray is only selling more hardware because it's included in the PS3 -- HD-DVD lacks a similar method of selling the movie player through a different market. Lots and lots of machines that can play VCDs were sold, but that doesn't make VCD a successful format. Blu-Ray movies are only 'selling' so well because they're being given away.

[RetroYoungen]

Blu-Ray is only selling more hardware because it's included in the PS3 -- HD-DVD lacks a similar method of selling the movie player through a different market. Lots and lots of machines that can play VCDs were sold, but that doesn't make VCD a successful format. Blu-Ray movies are only 'selling' so well because they're being given away.

And I'd like to add to this point: that in some cases, they're LITERALLY being given away. I know some retailers that are selling PS3 units with a mail-in order to get five free movies to get the customer started.

Honestly, the look and sound on the TVs at the store I work at look close enough to the same to me, and the prices are close enough (though BR titles are usually a couple dollars more, most people I've talked to at work don't really bring up any difference when they check over the HD rack), so it - at least in my observation - comes down to a breaking factor, meaning the PS3 versus the HD add-on for the 360 and cheaper HD players overall. But why buy a cheap player, or better yet a 360, if for basically the same price (with the 360 example, anyway) you can buy a PS3 and have something, right out of the box, that can play a high-definition format AND play amazing looking games (even if there aren't too many games to drool over on the platform)?

In that particular instance, I'd have to side with the PS3. But that's just me, and just one way of looking at it... for those people who just want to play games, it comes down to selection of titles, and that's a different story. For the moment, anyway.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Betamax was selling better than VHS at the start as well. If Blu-Ray takes a nose dive in the coming years and HD (or even another late-comer format) rises up then Blu-Ray = Betamax is perfect in comparison.

Price is a big factor at market. Early adopters usually care little about cost, they just want the best, first. That's why Betamax started strong... then fizzled. Being a proprietary format will keep Blu-Ray expensive and out of mass-market.

UMD and a lack of wide appeal games, kept the PSP from smashing the DS like so many (myself included) thought it would/could. Despite it's obviously better tech, it suffered. It's not a failure so much as failed to meet it's expectation. It seems the same fate lies ahead of the PS3. The bar for the PSP and PS3 was set by the PS2 and that is one tough jump. No matter how much success they achieve, it will be looked at as a failure when compared to the PS2. Perception in business is "If you're not growing... you're dying." At least until you hit market saturation. Then it's a matter of sustaining and maximizing what you've grown to.

The only way I can see Sony turning this thing around at this point is to do enact very drastic changes that they are unwilling or unable to do. In short, axe the Blue laser DD and get that price between $250-$400. After that, some games would be nice.

[YoshiM]

trouble with PS3 and 360 is the games gotta look and play good. coding games is not as easy as it used to be.

That's kinda funny. I remember reading articles back in VG&CE or EGM about how it was difficult to program in the early days of the 16 Bit consoles (which also rose development costs and thus increased some cart prices).

[Nick Goracke]

Blu-Ray is only selling more hardware because it's included in the PS3 -- HD-DVD lacks a similar method of selling the movie player through a different market.

And they're at a disadvantage for it.



Lots and lots of machines that can play VCDs were sold, but that doesn't make VCD a successful format.

Because nobody bought the software. Blu-Ray *disc* sales are also outpacing HDDVD *disc* sales.

[j_factor]

Blu-Ray disc sales are artificially high due to freebies.

[segagamer4life]

Betamax was selling better than VHS at the start as well. If Blu-Ray takes a nose dive in the coming years and HD (or even another late-comer format) rises up then Blu-Ray = Betamax is perfect in comparison.

Price is a big factor at market. Early adopters usually care little about cost, they just want the best, first. That's why Betamax started strong... then fizzled. Being a proprietary format will keep Blu-Ray expensive and out of mass-market.

UMD and a lack of wide appeal games, kept the PSP from smashing the DS like so many (myself included) thought it would/could. Despite it's obviously better tech, it suffered. It's not a failure so much as failed to meet it's expectation. It seems the same fate lies ahead of the PS3. The bar for the PSP and PS3 was set by the PS2 and that is one tough jump. No matter how much success they achieve, it will be looked at as a failure when compared to the PS2. Perception in business is "If you're not growing... you're dying." At least until you hit market saturation. Then it's a matter of sustaining and maximizing what you've grown to.

The only way I can see Sony turning this thing around at this point is to do enact very drastic changes that they are unwilling or unable to do. In short, axe the Blue laser DD and get that price between $250-$400. After that, some games would be nice.

excellent point, the thing that bothers (I guess you can say that), is that Sony, is not doing this, they are adding another sku later this year with 20 extra gigs and motorstorm..... to me thats crap... 100 bucks for (imo) not much more. But I agree with you, however, I think the power of the fanboy, can't be denied here either, there are millions of current PS2 owners who haven't made the jump yet, so if and where they jump too, will or can "turn" the tide, one way or the other.

[Nick Goracke]

Blu-Ray disc sales are artificially high due to freebies.

You realize HD-DVD has given away as many, or more freebies, right? No offense, but a little research never hurt anybody. :)

[LiquidX01]

You realize HD-DVD has given away as many, or more freebies, right? No offense, but a little research never hurt anybody. :)

I'm quoting you, even though this wasn't asked at me directly...

Sony has given away many freebies, such as Talladega Nights with the launch of the US PS3, Casino Royal with the European PS3 launch, and the 5 free BR disks with purchase of any BR player that they've had going for months. The PS3 also qualifies for that freebie.

Now the only freebies Toshiba has given away was the King Kong HDDVD with the 360 add on, and the 3 free HDDVD's with purchase of a player... which they've just recently added 2 more to, and included the 360 add on as being eligible for.

Considering that BR hardware (mostly PS3's) are outselling HDDVD hardware, common sense tells me that your own research is questionable.

[smork]

Blu-Ray is only selling more hardware because it's included in the PS3 -- HD-DVD lacks a similar method of selling the movie player through a different market. Lots and lots of machines that can play VCDs were sold, but that doesn't make VCD a successful format. Blu-Ray movies are only 'selling' so well because they're being given away.

I don't know -- i'd say VCDs were a very successful format. They're still sold all over the lesser developed countries. I've always thought there was alot of VCD support in DVD players because in most of the countries were the players were made VCDs had a quite high market penetration.

I don't think either of the formats are really going to take off. I did get an HD-DVD drive for my 360, and I like the look and feel of the movies I have in the format. But for a very good quality DVD my upscaling DVD player isn't so far behind.

I think in the end the hi-def formats will fall victim to the MiniDisc syndrome. Convenient and useful, but ultimately usurped by cheaper technology. The HD formats will be killed by high quality upscaling, which could be added to any DVD player so nobody needs to invest in a new format to get a decent quality HD picture from DVD.

[Rob2600]

The HD formats will be killed by high quality upscaling, which could be added to any DVD player so nobody needs to invest in a new format to get a decent quality HD picture from DVD.

Regarding upscaling, even the best upscaling of a standard DVD won't look quite as good as a new high quality, high resolution transfer encoded using HD compression technologies and bitrates (for example, 30 Mb/s MPEG-4 HD-DVD vs. 10 Mb/s MPEG-2 DVD).

The problem is that in order for HD-DVD and/or Blu-ray to become mainstream, HDTV must first become mainstream. That won't happen for at least another few years. HDTV prices are still too high, the competing technologies cause too much confusion (LCD vs. plasma vs. DLP, etc.), and standard DVDs played on good standard TVs still look great.

$1,500 to $3,000 for a high quality HDTV? No way, not for me. Once the prices go below $500, then I'll think about it. I'm in no rush to upgrade.

[KingCobra]

Like everyone else with half a brain, it's wayyyy... to much $$$$ and that's that.

Plus I think the gaming market has really slowed down since the Xbox, most of us were quite content with the Xbox and a 2nd console back-up such as a Cube or a ps2 and don't forget the DC it sold alot in late 99-00, that's 4 consoles in a 3 year span, plus the handheld market, SP, DS, DSlite, PSP... crazy I tell you.

$500 for 360 and maybe an extra controller or two? $59 games?! WOAW!!! and then PS3 at a what? 600-700 dollars!? That's just F'n nuts :|

PS3 is dust, the only saving grace for Sony is if they just eat-it and get in the 299-399 price range as too atleast compete with Xbox360.

[Nick Goracke]

Sony has given away many freebies, such as Talladega Nights with the launch of the US PS3, Casino Royal with the European PS3 launch, and the 5 free BR disks with purchase of any BR player that they've had going for months. The PS3 also qualifies for that freebie.

Now the only freebies Toshiba has given away was the King Kong HDDVD with the 360 add on, and the 3 free HDDVD's with purchase of a player... which they've just recently added 2 more to, and included the 360 add on as being eligible for.

Considering that BR hardware (mostly PS3's) are outselling HDDVD hardware, common sense tells me that your own research is questionable.

The 5 free BR discs deal started on July 1st. Blu-Ray led in software sales *before July 1st*. Am I missing something? Or did you just mix up the dates (HD-DVD started the giveaway in May, I believe)?

[G-Boobie]

DVDs took off as quickly as they did because they offered such a huge technical leap in terms of pure content and quality over VHS tapes at fairly comparable prices. Many people now have collections of DVDs bordering on, or exceeding triple digits. Are people really ready to re-buy all their movies again?

Maybe hi-def formats are being pushed too hard, too early. I guess time will tell. One advantage that blu ray confers to the PS3, quite outside of the video applications, is pure storage space; time will tell how important that turns out to be.

G-Boobie, out.

[smork]

Regarding upscaling, even the best upscaling of a standard DVD won't look quite as good as a new high quality, high resolution transfer encoded using HD compression technologies and bitrates (for example, 30 Mb/s MPEG-4 HD-DVD vs. 10 Mb/s MPEG-2 DVD).

No, it won't, but good upscaling will be good enough for most people.

The only way I see the format(s) catching on is if the players are offered at the same price as a normal DVD player. Most people won't care to spend the money on what to them is a negligible difference. And relatively speaking, unless you're a videophile, it IS a negligible difference.

[WanganRunner]

It is true that most people either can't notice or don't care for the difference that Blu-Ray and a 1080p native TV provides over a DVD and normal 720p. This is bad for Sony.

I am not one of these people, as I'm something of a nut about image quality, but I'm not in the majority.

I'm actually getting MORE sold on PS3 as time goes on rather than less, simply because the software lineup is getting more exciting pretty quickly here. MGS4, MGO, Killzone 2, GT5, Heavenly Sword, FFXIII, etc......

I also look at the 360 after almost two years and I can't really find all that much stuff that I want to play. Oblivion, Halo 3, and Gears of War are really about it. Forza need not exist in a world with GT5.....some of us LIKE all the obscure Japanese cars in the GT series, those 1970's Skylines are a dealbreaker, lol.

I'm more excited about Wii than either one, but I also can't seem to FIND a Wii to save my life....

[Mr.Bitter]

It is true that most people either can't notice or don't care for the difference that Blu-Ray and a 1080p native TV provides over a DVD and normal 720p. This is bad for Sony.

I am not one of these people, as I'm something of a nut about image quality, but I'm not in the majority.

I'm actually getting MORE sold on PS3 as time goes on rather than less, simply because the software lineup is getting more exciting pretty quickly here. MGS4, MGO, Killzone 2, GT5, Heavenly Sword, FFXIII, etc......

I also look at the 360 after almost two years and I can't really find all that much stuff that I want to play. Oblivion, Halo 3, and Gears of War are really about it. Forza need not exist in a world with GT5.....some of us LIKE all the obscure Japanese cars in the GT series, those 1970's Skylines are a dealbreaker, lol.

I'm more excited about Wii than either one, but I also can't seem to FIND a Wii to save my life....

I got a Wii the week after launch. While it was fun for a while, I grew pretty bored with it after the initial novelty wore off. There weren't enough titles that appealed to me coming out for it, so I sold it a few weeks ago.

I have a 360 that is giving me issues. I'm already on my second console and I don't know if I have the patience to go for number three. I'm not sure if the exclusives to the system are worth putting up with the issues I've had. I'm considering seling off all my games and console and just getting a PS3. Most of the games I play are on both consoles, and the PS3 has enough exclusives to make it a good option, for me at least.

Maybe once I'm convinced Microsoft has fixed their hardware issues I'll re-invest, but placing a 3 year warranty on their consoles doesn't show me that they have alot of faith in the product they've put out there. Once the better PS3 exclusives start hitting store shelves, and if 360's continue their failure rate issues, Sony could get back in the game with gamers like myself.