Will Microsoft and Sony both make a next generation system?

[neogamer]

In another post, I stated that there is some doubt in the financial world as to whether or not Microsoft will in fact release another home video game system. The reason behind this is because, as many other companies have found out, it is very hard to compete in a Japanese dominated industry when you are an American company. Regardless, of Microsoft's deep financial pockets, I wanted to hear your comments on this issue.

Please refrain from any Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft bashing! You may post whatever you like, but I will say this. I am stock holder of all three companies, and I own all three systems as well, so I could care less! I do not have a favorite! I can play Gears of War, then play Wii Sports, while getting ready to do some serious damage in Resistance Fall of Man!

The purpose of this post is to have an intellectual conversation about where you personally think the industry is headed within 5-10 years! Will there be a Sony Playstation 4? Most analysts would say yes! Will there be another Nintendo home game system. Almost all the analysts in our industry would agree!

Ready to start? Okay, off to the comments.....this should get interesting!

[walrusmonger]

There is no way that MS or Nintendo wouldnt release another console. I'm sure Sony will pick up sooner or later with their PS3 sales and release a PS4.

To think MS would just throw in the towel after the massive success of the 360 is crazy.

[bangtango]

Sony still thinks they are on top or will be on top, so there is no reason for them to pass on releasing another Playstation system.

Nintendo is on top in the next-generation race, at least according to a couple of threads here and there (I don't keep tabs on sales figures, I just follow new releases). No reason for them to stop releasing systems.

I don't expect Microsoft to admit any type of defeat either.

Unless one of the three companies starts working together with one of the other two, then I'm sure we will see all three "show up" when the time comes for new hardware.

[Family Computer]

PS3 will dominate in Japan once the games start coming. Not sure how it will end up doing in the US, but certainly a lot better than it is at the moment.

Nintendo is only a gaming company, so of course they will make another system. Even when they lose console races, they are still profitable. They develop most of the popular games for their systems themselves, and are always profitable on hardware sales.

Microsoft will never do well in Japan, but they will continue to do well in the US.

[studvicious]

Without a doubt. The gaming industry brings in more money than Hollywood - it's not going anywhere, no matter which company "wins".

[AMG]

I have no doubt that Sony, MS and Nintendo will release future home consoles.

Let's just hope that Sony (and to a lesser extent Microsoft) have learned that console pricing is very important. It's doesn't matter how many bells and whistles a console has, the price will determine how fast it gets into homes, not fancy extras.

[Anthony1]

MS is actually in a good position to release another console in November 2010. It will be too early for Sony to release another system, considering the PS3 will just be hitting it's stride in 2010, but the follow up to the 360 will be considerably more powerful than the PS3. It will have ridiculous amounts of ram, along with the latest in processing and graphics technology. I would guess it will also have physics type hardware built into the system as well. The 360 will be the dominating system in terms of software sales in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Those are going to be the 4 big years for Microsoft. However, as 2010 fades away it will be obvious that the Playstation 3 is starting to really make a move into 360 software sales. The true power of the PS3 will surely have been tapped by then, and 360 titles could look a bit weak in comparison. This is when the whole Blu Ray media strategy will actually start to pay off for Sony. This will give MS the perfect reason to release a new system, while continuing to support the 360 well into 2011 and 2012. I don't think they will euthanize the 360, like they did the Xbox. They will follow Sony's lead, in how they handled the PS1 and PS2 at the end of their life span. Release a newer, more powerful system for much more money, lower the price on the existing hardware to the $99 range, and continue to bring out some big games for the old hardware, squeezing even more profits out of it, while it's on it's death bed.

Also, it's very possible that MS waits till November 2011 to release their next console. As for Sony, I'm sure they will have a follow up to the PS3, but I don't see them releasing a follow up till November 2012 or even possibly 2013, as crazy as that may sound.

The real question, is what is Nintendo's hardware future? Some people out there, like Michael Pachter, have predicited that Nintendo will release a "HD" version of the Wii in a couple of years. Like possibly as early as Xmas 09. Basically, the theory with that, is that Nintendo makes a boatload of money off the Wii in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but in 2009, Wii sales start to really tapper off, and consumers get bored with the 2001 graphics. So, right as the Wii fad dies off, Nintendo is ready with a High Def version of their Wii, that is still extremely low cost, and has graphics comparable to the Xbox 360. I think that's an interesting thought process, but I think Nintendo is way too arrogant and stubborn to think their Wii fad is going to die that quick a death. I'm sure they are pondering a "HD" Wii, but I can't see them releasing anything until they are absolutey positive that the Wii craze is history. Therefore, I don't see them releasing a follow up to the Wii, until November 2010.

That's my personal take.

[Juganawt]

Microsoft are already working on the successor to Xbox 360, and will probably start working on the successor to the successor of the Xbox 360 as soon as the successor is launched. They have deep pockets, and a determination to dominate the industry. They'll pretty much do whatever it takes to get the number one spot.

The only real question is, Will Microsoft continue attempting to break the Japanese market? Or will they cut their losses and release Xbox 720 (or whatever it'll be called) in Western countries, similar to how Atari worked.

It must be coming clear that the amount of money Microsoft have plowed into getting some sort of sales in Japan is money wasted. We all know that Japanese people are elitist and would never, EVER let a non-Japanese system become number one over there. No matter how hard they try, even if they got every single high profile developer to work exclusively to Xbox, the machine would still be a flop.

Sony are working on a new system also, although it's uncertain whether it's a phone with PSP compatibility, or the follow up to the PS3.

With Sony, it's slightly different. This is the first time their pride (and pockets) have been dented on an extreme scale. Not only does it merely have an absolutely pathetic 9% marketshare in it's native Japan, nobody in the US is buying it, and Europeans are pissed off at Sony for releasing late in this territory at double the price, with half the software..so it's flopping hard here in Europe too. If Blu Ray hadn't started becoming successful, there wouldn't be a PS4... and there wouldn't be a Sony either. They would have gone bankrupt.

I think if PS3 stagnates like it has been till the end of it's life, we will see a PS4, but if that didn't succeed better then PS3 did, I doubt we'd see a PS5.

So to get to the point, yes there will be next generation systems from all 3 of the big players, and probably new entries into the handheld market by Sony and Nintendo, which will spark Microsoft's interest to finally release a portable system also.

[neogamer]

I will state this:

Microsoft and Sony (to a lesser extend, thanks in part to incredible sales in Japan) are both losing money in their game divisions.

Microsoft is currently close to two billion dollars in the hole.

Sony is anywhere between 1 to 2 billion dollars in the hole right now.

Nintendo is the only console company that actually continues to make money on their hardware. They make roughly fifty dollars on every Wii console sold.

It is interesting to see how this will play out.

I personally believe that Microsoft will eventually give up on hardware and focus on software only. Many analysts feel the same way. One of the reasons behind this is because Microsoft is primarily a software company. Sony on the other hand, is primarily a hardware company in the software business.

I have a friend who happens to be an analyst at Bank of America who claims that Microsoft will eventually, like Sega, be forced to go mulit-platform. This is due to their lackluster success in Japan. I somewhat agree, after all, how can an American company succeed in a Japanese dominated world of video games? The 360 is barely selling in Japan, and the Japanese market is roughly three to four times larger than the US video game market. Yes, it is bigger than Hollywood, but there are a lot of other business that are bigger than Hollywood as well!

Anyway, I still am buying a Halo Xbox 360 system (even though I already own a premium 360 system) on launch day and of course, Halo 3, when it ships a few days later!

[s1lence]

Well considering that Bill Gates stated that the Xbox franchise will succeed regardless of cost, they will have another system. Last time I checked they aren't short on cash flow. Also before the recall on the 360 MS was starting to turn the corner to being in the black.

Sony is in the same boat, money doesn't seem to be a problem for them either and the PS3 will start making money. Its just taking a bit longer. The PS2 is still a system that is selling systems and games, and you know the cost to the company on both is minimal compared to the PS3 and 360.

No I see that both will be around for some time to come.

[Icarus Moonsight]

The 360 is barely selling in Japan, and the Japanese market is roughly three to four times larger than the US video game market.

Last I knew, the US market accounts for nearly 50% of the global gaming market. If true, there's not enough pie left for Japan to account for 3-4 times over the US.

Microsoft's biggest assets, namely Live and Halo, could easily be exported to other platforms and already has made the migration to PCs. I could see MS operating as a third party in the console market. They already do third party releases in the handheld market, for example, Mechwarrior on DS.

Sony is in a bit of a pickle IMO. Though I have no doubt we'll be seeing the PS4 in the future. Afterall, if Sony doesn't release hardware they got nothing. Well, maybe God of War. Still not enough to keep them viable in the case of going software only. Anyone remember the Sony Imagesoft brand? Yuck!

[udisi]

They'll all make a new system.

Microsoft would be fine if it were not for the Japanese market. I could see Microsoft deciding to say the hell with the Japanese market and making more money in the US ad Europe, but I don't see MS admitting defeat anywhere and they'll continue to throw money in a hole in Japan.

Sony is in real trouble, the PS3 is munching money at an alarming rate. I say they're in worse shape than MS because they're failing on all fronts...Japan, US, and Europe share are all ridiculously terrible. I don't even know if the system will survive when some software finally hits the market. I don't think Sony will give up the fight easy too though, and will probably have a PS4 out sooner than later and they will make it cheaper and more cost effective. The PS3 may end up dying young just because the mainstream public won't risk buying it will all the bad press and high price tag.

Nintendo...continues to somehow succeed in the eyes of defeat. Nintendo always decides to go with a more affordable less powerful platform, and turns a profit on hardware sales. I really thought the Wii would have been too quirky to even be as successful as it is now. It doesn't have a lot of quality software, but is does have a handful of must play titles, and as in the past Nintendo has shown that it can survive on it's first party titles alone. The HD Wii idea is interesting and I was thinking sortof along the same lines. I think Nintendo will take a page from the Handheld side of things and release updated versions of hardware that are backwards compatible. Think of the evolution of the GBA through the DS. You have your basic GBA, then they make the SP, make a brighter scrren, make the Micro, Bring out the DS, the DS lite....Nintendo has made a mint on Hardware by just making small improvements and updates. Why not do this with the Wii?

[Mayhem]

The 360 is barely selling in Japan, and the Japanese market is roughly three to four times larger than the US video game market.

Actually in terms of revenue, Europe is the biggest games market in the world, followed by the US and then Japan.

[Gentlegamer]

We all know that Japanese people are elitist and would never, EVER let a non-Japanese system become number one over there.
What operating system do the Japanese use on their home computers? What home computer type (PC, Mac, other) do the Japanese use?

[Moo Cow]

The problem with US games not selling in Japan isn't elitism. Look at how well Cracsh Bandicoot did over there. It sold well because of the great advertising job that was done to make it appeal over there. Most American games don't sell well in Japan because they don't try hard enough to make it appeal to the Japanese.

[diskoboy]

Ummm - who invented the video game? A German AMERICAN (All praise Ralph Baer)

Japan just stole the industry from us in the late 80's, when the MBA's took over the industry here, and fucked everything up.

[cyberfluxor]

Well, from looking back on the gaming markets I think it's possible that Sony will fade away within a few more generations unless they do have some huge plans for the PS3 and it can last in the market for those plans to be released. It's possible they'll go the way of Atari and just continue with software from busting on such an expensive game system.

As for Microsoft, I see them sticking around for awhile longer. I have no doubt they'll be around for awhile longer in at least North America because they're our footprint in the game market at this time. They feed off of the American game market that Sony and Nintendo haven't tapped into due to who their games target.

Nintendo will stick around for a good while longer. They will continue making kids and "everyone" friendly games. They may slow down eventually but they aren't going away anytime soon.

My main hope is that a new player will enter the market in a few years. We're due for yet another company to spit out a big console and hit the demands of next-gen everyone is asking for and the current big three haven't quite done yet. I believe that this company will have an inovative method that will wow everyone and take the game world by storm.

Of course those are what I think from my perspective. Maybe I'm not attuned to the new generation of consoles as some others are here but I do expect some changes to occure soonre than later.

[neogamer]

Ummm - who invented the video game? A German AMERICAN (All praise Ralph Baer)

Japan just stole the industry from us in the late 80's, when the MBA's took over the industry here, and fucked everything up.

What's your point? As of right now, the Japanese market is huge! That is all that matters now. Numbers don't lie!

I won't even comment on your reply about MBA's, as in about ten months, I'll have one as well.....

[neogamer]

Actually in terms of revenue, Europe is the biggest games market in the world, followed by the US and then Japan.

Your getting your info from Morgan Stanley! That comment was later retracted by them. Actually the Japanese have a bigger market than Europe according to Bank of America. Generally, they seem to have some the best analysts in the business.

Unfortunately, most video game websites and magazines, use whatever analysts they want to prove the facts they want to prove. This is why I normally don't like gamespot.com, they do this all the time!

EGM does the same thing. You can find information to prove the numbers either way. Just take your pick on what analysts you want to use. Sad, but true!

Right now, Target is supposed to be a good stock to buy, however, I can show you other analysts who claim that Target is a horrible stock to buy. Analysts that study the video game industry are no different.

[Trebuken]

My opinions (no research involved).

Nintendo is succeeding because of the DS not the Wii. The Wii does not have a rosey future after this holiday because of the weak hardware. I'm hoping Mario Galaxy can change turn things around and show us that the Wii can push a few more pixels. Innovation ain't going to be enough for them, since MS and Sony can copy it all.

The 360 is selling boatloads of software and Halo 3 is expected to singlehandedly turn the 360's profits around; and eliminate the red ring expenses. The 360 has thre years left and Microsoft would have done a great job managing their hardware costs had they not released defective hardware. The limited disc space may come into play.

Sony needs to get a move on. Warhawk and Lair were delayed a year and still sucked. Heavenly Sword is one week away and will either signal a new beginning for Sony or the end. If Unreal Tournament 3 makes it to the PS3 first they will sell more systems; Blu-ray is going to sell systems as people migrate to HD -- the next couple of years are a big deal for HD because everyone needs to convert and no more analog sets will be sold. Almost all TV's sold from here on will be HD.

I expect another Xbox, then a new PS3 a year or two later, but Nintendo is going to have to make a deal with someone to get some more power in their next system. Rumor has it that they are working on this. Can the DS continue to trounce the PSP? Nintendo needs it to or they are toast....their next handheld might be announced at the next E3 (my guess).

PC Gaming will still be around when all these systems have faded to the classic gaming section though, so no worries.

[Rob2600]

Nintendo always decides to go with a more affordable less powerful platform

It has? The SNES was more powerful than the Genesis, the Nintendo 64 was more powerful than the PlayStation, and the GameCube was more powerful than the PlayStation 2.

However, it's interesting that whenever Nintendo releases weaker hardware, it ends up outselling the competition by a significant margin. The NES vs. the Master System, the Game Boy vs. the Lynx, the Game Boy Color vs. the Neo-Geo Pocket Color, the DS vs. the PSP, and the Wii vs. the PlayStation 3.


Nintendo is going to have to make a deal with someone to get some more power in their next system. Rumor has it that they are working on this.

Nintendo has been working with technology partners for years, including Sony (SNES audio), Silicon Graphics (Nintendo 64), ATI (GameCube and Wii graphics), IBM (GameCube and Wii CPU), MoSys (GameCube and Wii RAM), and Factor 5 (Game Boy Advance audio tools).

[Soviet Conscript]

the populations of the United States and Europe dwarf Japan. also gameing is becomeing more and more popular in these regions. by this logic doesn't haveing a successful system in Japan over time going to mean less and less?

[Anthony1]

I think there is a bit too much doom and gloom being focused on Sony in quite a few of the responses in this thread. Things aren't going very well for Sony right now, but it's amazing how quickly things can change. Just look at e3. It's almost like everybody was waiting patiently to hop back on the Sony bandwagon. Killzone 2 was mildy impressive, but nowhere near as impressive as everyone made it out to be, and that's primarily because many are looking for any reason to support Sony again. There are alot of gamers that grew up on Playstation 1, and then in their teens and young adulthood, they had a PS2 as their primary system. They are used to Sony, and used to having a Sony system as their No.1 system, and they are looking for reasons to own a PS3, and any glimmer of hope will send them in that direction.

Right now, price and killer software are the two key factors that are holding Sony back, but that won't continue to hold them back forever. During 2008, I'm sure they will get many PS3 games that will instill faith in the Sony hopeful, and the high price has nowhere to go but down. Again, I think Microsoft pretty much has things locked up till 2010, but Sony is going to be gaining some ground over the next several years. In 2008, I think Sony will start making a bit of a comeback, and in 2009 that will continue. By 2010, I can see some of the big PS3 games being somewhat impossible to do on the 360, and the price will be way down by that time, so I can definitely see the PS3 having a long life span.

Microsoft will be ready to release a new console in fall 2010 or 2011, but Sony should still be going strong. So basically, I see Sony trailing for the next couple of years, but then gaining some serious ground after that. I can easily see Sony dominating the back half of 2010, all of 2011 and most of 2012. I think by fall 2012, the next Xbox will have lowered to more of a mass market price, and the games will be so far beyond the current PS3 games of that time, that many people will jump to this new Xbox. Then Sony of course will have their PS4 in fall 2012 or 2013.

It really just comes down to which particular year you are looking at, as to who is going to win that particular year. And when I'm talking about winning, I'm talking about overall software sales. Hardware sales are pretty much meaningless for everybody other than Nintendo.

[BHvrd]

Although the main games are what should be the main drive and success of all 3 the truth is downladable games are making all 3 of the companies good money.

Downloadable content is assuring the future release of all three. You better believe that those micro-purcahses are make them some jack, and although I have been kind of opposed to it in the past, I must admit it is an addiction downloading games.

I'm all about exclusives and rival platforms, but I think next generation one of the 3 systems will attempt to go full download on content, my bets on Xbox.

[Wolfrider31]

This is actually a pretty interesting question. Both Sony and Microsoft have taken considerable financial hits on their console, and Nintendo is a position of having a massive installed base with an underpowered console (which makes coming out with a new console a risky proposition).

I think it's not a matter of "if" but "when". Sony clearly has that 10 year focus, and Microsoft really needs to sit still for a bit and start pulling in a profit. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine this generation might dump the 5 year life cycle and go for a 7 or (perhaps) 10 year cycle. Certainly neither company is in need of new technology any time soon, so building a nice big library and counting cash sounds like a better plan. When it comes to Sony, I think that can be their only plan.

Two problems with this scenario though: One is the PC. Normally we think of the PC as a seperate beast altogether, but the two worlds are moving closer together and with ports of PC games to consoles and vice versa becoming the norm, consoles may have to move faster than expected to keep up.

The big wildcard seems to be Nintendo. Certainly the Wii is ok now, but once the PS3 and 360 really get exploited by developers the little console that could is going to look positively archaic by comparison. Nintendo might have to pull out an updated Wii sooner than Nintendo wants. And what would that consist of? 360/PS3 level graphics? More multimedia options? A different storage media (Blu-ray/HDVD)? And how would the competition react? Would everything just balance or would that force Sony and Microsoft's hands?

It'll be a fun one to watch.

[diskoboy]

What's your point? As of right now, the Japanese market is huge! That is all that matters now. Numbers don't lie!

I won't even comment on your reply about MBA's, as in about ten months, I'll have one as well.....

My point is America is bigger.

More land, more stores, more gamers.

And to be quite blunt: I could give 2 shits less about what is going on in Japan. We invented the video game, and when we fuck up the market, the Japanese come in and steal it from under us. Kinda like baseball, golf, and the entire automobile industry.

[Wolfrider31]

My point is America is bigger.

More land, more stores, more gamers.

And to be quite blunt: I could give 2 shits less about what is going on in Japan. We invented the video game, and when we fuck up the market, the Japanese come in and steal it from under us. Kinda like baseball, golf, and the entire automobile industry.

How charmingly racist. Though I am impressed that you assisted in inventing the video game.

Unless you're counting Ralph Baer as the starting point. He was born in Germany.

[Rob2600]

Nintendo is a position of having a massive installed base with an underpowered console (which makes coming out with a new console a risky proposition).

Why? Sony had a huge user base with the graphically inferior PlayStation and released the PlayStation 2, which was successful and also graphically inferior to the Xbox and GameCube. Nintendo had a huge user base with the graphically inferior Game Boy and released the Game Boy Color and Game Boy Advance, both of which were successful.


Sony clearly has that 10 year focus

I don't think so. I remember reading an interview in Next Generation magazine ten years ago in which someone at Sony said the PlayStation would be a viable, active console for at least ten years. Evidently, that Sony executive was exaggerating. It's good public relations though. Marketing people say those types of things all the time. People shouldn't take it seriously.


I don't think it's a stretch to imagine this generation might dump the 5 year life cycle and go for a 7 or (perhaps) 10 year cycle. Certainly neither company is in need of new technology any time soon

Again, I don't think so. The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 are first-generation HD consoles and technology advances very quickly. Even $2,000 computers are usually replaced within five or six years. Waiting seven to ten years to release new hardware is unrealistic in the home video game market.


Certainly the Wii is ok now, but once the PS3 and 360 really get exploited by developers the little console that could is going to look positively archaic by comparison.

Remember the Sega Dreamcast? It was many times more powerful than the Sony PlayStation, but that didn't matter. The Dreamcast sat on store shelves while consumers continued to buy the older, weaker, "archaic" PlayStation. Better graphics doesn't always result in better sales.


It'll be a fun one to watch.

I agree!

[diskoboy]

How charmingly racist. Though I am impressed that you assisted in inventing the video game.

Unless you're counting Ralph Baer as the starting point. He was born in Germany.

Selective read much?

As my first post on this thread says - Ralph Baer - A GERMAN AMERICAN.

And how am I racist because I don't care what's going on in Japan? Screw you.

[Wolfrider31]

Why? Sony had a huge user base with the graphically inferior PlayStation and released the PlayStation 2, which was successful and also graphically inferior to the Xbox and GameCube. Nintendo had a huge user base with the graphically inferior Game Boy and released the Game Boy Color and Game Boy Advance, both of which were successful.



I think it's different for Nintendo than for Sony and MS because Nintendo user base consists of a larger percentage of casual/non-gamers. During a hardware change I imagine many of them will be likely to drop off, especially if the Wii isn't successful in turning them into gamers. As gamers we know that a five year life cycle is par, but it might be harder to convince all those 70 year olds to drop another 200-400 bucks on another Wii a few years later. Know what I mean?

[Rob2600]

I could give 2 shits less about what is going on in Japan.

You may not care about the video game market in Japan, but Japanese companies do. They're the ones who create most video game consoles and games.


We invented the video game, and when we fuck up the market, the Japanese come in and steal it from under us.

This has been going on for decades. Many things have been pioneered in America, which were later improved upon by the Japanese (automobiles, phonographs, animation, video games, etc.).

[Wolfrider31]

Selective read much?

As my first post on this thread says - Ralph Baer - A GERMAN AMERICAN.

And how am I racist because I don't care what's going on in Japan? Screw you.

I love you too.

[Soviet Conscript]

How charmingly racist. Though I am impressed that you assisted in inventing the video game.

Unless you're counting Ralph Baer as the starting point. He was born in Germany.

acually i think he was being more Ethnocentric rather then racist.

and still there is the point. the US has more people then Japan and a comprable economy and as far as I know gameing is becomeing a bigger and bigger part of American culture.

so isn't there potentally much more money to be made in America? and as time goes by will the Japanese gameing market matter less?

[Rob2600]

I think it's different for Nintendo than for Sony and MS because Nintendo user base consists of a larger percentage of casual/non-gamers.

Many, many people who bought PlayStation and PlayStation 2 consoles were casual gamers as well.


it might be harder to convince all those 70 year olds to drop another 200-400 bucks on another Wii a few years later. Know what I mean?

Good point, but if people in their 20s and 30 spend $200 to $600 every five years on new video game consoles, why wouldn't people in their 70s? Is it because people in their 70s are smarter with their money?

[Wolfrider31]

acually i think he was being more Ethnocentric rather then racist.

and still there is the point. the US has more people then Japan and a comprable economy and as far as I know gameing is becomeing a bigger and bigger part of American culture.

so isn't there potentally much more money to be made in America? and as time goes by will the Japanese gameing market matter less?

That's a good point, though currently the Japanese market is slightly bigger. (9 billion $US in Japan vs 7.3 billion in the United States) So Japan still is a big player, and will remain so for some time.


Many, many people who bought PlayStation and PlayStation 2 consoles were casual gamers as well.



Good point, but if people in their 20s and 30 spend $200 to $600 every five years on new video game consoles, why wouldn't people in their 70s? Is it because people in their 70s are smarter with their money?

LoL, perhaps. I think it's just a matter of market. Perhaps those casuals are less likely to spend money on a new system, but more likely to spend money on new software. I'm just speculating here, though I imagine that Nintendo will have to as well. It'll be hard for them to determine the behavior of this new market accurately.

[j_factor]

I think if any of the three leaves the industry, it will be Microsoft. I mean, they lift right out. They're not a gaming company, they're not much of a hardware company (Zune excepted), and they're taking consistent losses. If their Xbox division doesn't pull in a profit, eventually the stockholders will wonder why they're bothering. I could also plausibly see the Xbox branding being shifted to something other than a game console, similar to how the N-Gage brand is shifting. Maybe Xbox could be some sort of PC-related thing.

PS3 may be doing the worst of the three, but even if its sales never improve, I still see Sony releasing a PS4. If the PS4 flops too, only then will Sony give up. Since Sony had two big successes, and a game console fits in well with their overall business (consumer electronics), they're not going to give up quickly.

[Anthony1]

Remember the Sega Dreamcast? It was many times more powerful than the Sony PlayStation, but that didn't matter. The Dreamcast sat on store shelves while consumers continued to buy the older, weaker, "archaic" PlayStation. Better graphics doesn't always result in better sales.


Oh god, here we go again. In another thread you kept mentioning the Dreamcast and the PS1 in the same sentence, like they were from the same generation. And here you are again. The Dreamcast had nothing to do with the PS1. Did you forget that Sega had a system called the Sega Saturn? The Saturn was Sega's main console during the mid to late 90's. Just because it died a tragic death here in America, doesn't mean it didn't exist. I'm guessing you're 17 years old or something. I'm hoping that's the case. Either that, or you really need to read up on your gaming history. I've seen you mention the Dreamcast and Playstation in several threads, acting like the two systems were in direct competition which each other, but that simply wasn't the case.

Here is a little history lesson for you, since you obviously missed it. The Sega Dreamcast was released on September 9th, 1999. It was the first shot fired in the Next-Gen war, at that time. Sony fired the second shot, in late October, the next year with the Playstation 2. Microsoft and Nintendo fired the 3rd and 4th shots respectively, with the release of the Xbox and Gamecube in November 2001. The Dreamcast, PS2, Xbox and Gamecube were all in direct competition with each other. It's true that the Dreamcast had one of the shortest gaming lifespans of any system in console history, but it was still the first shot fired in the NEXT-GEN war, not the last shot fired in the previous generation. The last shot fired in the previous generation was the Nintendo 64, which was released in late September 1996.

I'm sorry to go on this rant about this, but I've seen you mention this numerous times, and for some strange reason, it's really bothered me.

[Rob2600]

Oh god, here we go again. In another thread you kept mentioning the Dreamcast and the PS1 in the same sentence, like they were from the same generation. And here you are again. The Dreamcast had nothing to do with the PS1. ... It's true that the Dreamcast had one of the shortest gaming lifespans of any system in console history, but it was still the first shot fired in the NEXT-GEN war

I know the PlayStation and Dreamcast were from two different hardware generations. I think you're missing my point.

My point is:

People continue to buy inferior machines even though more powerful ones are available.

Let's pretend two products are on a store's shelf at the same time. One product is old and inferior and one is new and superior. Most people continue to buy the inferior product and ignore the superior product. That's what happened with the PlayStation and the Dreamcast. Despite the fact that the Dreamcast was from the new, more powerful generation, most people ignored it and continued to buy a machine from the previous generation: the old, inferior PlayStation.

How does this relate to the Wii? Some people are saying that the Wii is underpowered and inferior compared to the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 and, as a result, its sales will decline in a year or so. I don't think that will happen. Again, Sega released the Dreamcast in 1999. It was a very powerful console and many of its games featured great graphics. However, great graphics didn't seem to matter because in 1999 and 2000, most consumers continued to buy the old, inferior PlayStation and ignored the new, superior Dreamcast. This was before the PlayStation 2 was released.

The PlayStation 2 is another example. That console is from the previous generation and is old, underpowered, and inferior compared to the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3, yet it still continues to outsell them both every month.

Evidently, graphics and technological power don't seem to matter to most consumers. If they did, the Sega Master System would have outsold the NES, the Nintendo 64 would have outsold the PlayStation, the Xbox and GameCube would have outsold the PlayStation 2, the PSP would be outselling the DS, etc. It's weird, but it seems as though usually the underpowered console of each generation is the most popular, which is why I believe the Wii could continue to outsell its competition a few years from now.

I feel silly repeating myself in this way, but I don't know how I could make my point any clearer. History has proven that most of the time, graphics don't matter. Thus, Wii sales could remain high. Is anyone else misunderstanding my point or is it just Anthony1?

[Xizer]

I don't know about Sony, the way they're headed they're on a path to bankruptcy.

As for Nintendo and Microsoft, they will both make new systems. Nintendo is rolling in dough, and Microsoft is too stubborn to give up. Besides, they can eventually make their gaming division profitable. They've come too far to give up now.

[esquire]

Evidently, graphics and technological power don't seem to matter to most consumers. If they did, the Sega Master System would have outsold the NES, the Nintendo 64 would have outsold the PlayStation, the Xbox and GameCube would have outsold the PlayStation 2, the PSP would be outselling the DS, etc. It's weird, but it seems as though usually the underpowered console of each generation is the most popular, which is why I believe the Wii could continue to outsell its competition a few years from now.

You're comparing apples and oranges. First, obviously money matters to most consumers. Right now the PS2 is the best bargain for a consumer who does not have either a last gen or next gen system. The Gamecube and original XBOX are dead. No more systems and no more games. Whereas the PS3 and XBOX 360 are next gen, so are there prices, and compared to the PS2, the software library is limited. It makes perfect sense for the consumer to pick up the PS2 at $99. Second with such an established library - God of War II, Madden 08, Guitar Hero I & II, all the movie license games such as Spider-Man 3, all the new multiplatform releases like Stuntman, established series like DMC, Ratchet, Resident Evil, MGS, etc., etc., the PS2 is the smart choice for the consumer shopping for a game console. Also due to the pricing, the consumer can afford twice as many games for each next gen game bought. This is why the PS2 is still selling.

The PS1 was the same way - Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Crash Bandicoot and all the other platformer series.

Pricing and Game Selection Choices. Those are the reasons.

Only time will tell with the Wii, and whether it hold up over the next few years and last as long as the PS1 and PS2 have, but I doubt it will.

[Iron Draggon]

I think at some point MS will merge the console market and the PC market by releasing some sort of console/PC hybrid that revolutionizes both the console industry and the PC industry... we'll start seeing fully upgradable consoles that can be transformed into entirely new systems as new technologies become available... all the optional addons that you can imagine... a new trend will be how uniquely modded your uber-moddable game console is... modding competitions will emerge to encourage the development of the most impressive new features that will ultimately become new modding tools...

Microsoft seems to be toying with this idea now, with its Games for Windows initiative going head to head with the 360 over XBOX Live/Windows Live... we're just now starting to see PC gamers and console gamers playing the same game with/against each other online, and there is no discernable difference between the PC players and the console players... so where do you think all that is gonna go? that's why MS wants everyone on Vista with Direct X10... they're trying to push for consolidation of the two platforms... now a developer can simply write Direct X10 code and it will run on a PC or a 360... so it's only a matter of time until an MS BOX is both PC and console...

[Lothars]

I don't know about Sony, the way they're headed they're on a path to bankruptcy.


your anti-sony bias is even more annoying than normal

I definitely see Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft all making next Generation though If any of the three that I see giving up in the console race it will be Microsoft, they have did alot of great things with the 360 and alot of bad things and I see them continuing with whatever their next system is. but It's really one of those things.

I don't see any one company bowing out anytime soon which is a good thing, I think the more competition the better.

[neogamer]

How charmingly racist. Though I am impressed that you assisted in inventing the video game.

Unless you're counting Ralph Baer as the starting point. He was born in Germany.


I couldn't of said it better, if I wanted to....

[neogamer]

I think if any of the three leaves the industry, it will be Microsoft. I mean, they lift right out. They're not a gaming company, they're not much of a hardware company (Zune excepted), and they're taking consistent losses. If their Xbox division doesn't pull in a profit, eventually the stockholders will wonder why they're bothering. I could also plausibly see the Xbox branding being shifted to something other than a game console, similar to how the N-Gage brand is shifting. Maybe Xbox could be some sort of PC-related thing.

PS3 may be doing the worst of the three, but even if its sales never improve, I still see Sony releasing a PS4. If the PS4 flops too, only then will Sony give up. Since Sony had two big successes, and a game console fits in well with their overall business (consumer electronics), they're not going to give up quickly.

Most analysts would agree, as would I.

Microsoft is in a bad position, due to having to convince stockholders of all the money they keep dumping into the game business. Even if they did not create faulty hardware at the start, they like Sony, are still losing about $100+ on each unit sold!

Sony is a hradware company, so their investors are more likely to support this ideology, as long as they can make up for it on software. Microsoft, on the other hand, is in the software business, and most shareholders believe that they have no business creating hardware. Want proof? Compare a ZUNE to an I-POD (it is a little bit of an unfair comparison I know and agree).

Microsoft stock is in a "sticky" position right now. It really has not produced any positive gains over the last 12-18 months, until they offered a "buy back". They need to do something soon about this problem, as even Nintendo and Sony stock prices have ebbs and flows, creating market opportunites!

[chrisbid]

in the best interests of sony (and gamers), the playstation line needs to be separated from the rest of the company. convergence and blu-ray inflated the price of the PS3, which is reason number one for its slow sales. with the playstation brand spun off, sony can still give themselves a sweetheart deal that allows them to make money from hardware production and software publishing, but the semi-independant company can keep its focus on gaming.

the PS3 and 360 will 'hit their stride' when the price hits the $199 sweet spot, with the way things are going, that will take at least a few more years, and a new nintendo HD console can be in the pipeline.

[BHvrd]

in the best interests of sony (and gamers), the playstation line needs to be separated from the rest of the company. convergence and blu-ray inflated the price of the PS3, which is reason number one for its slow sales. with the playstation brand spun off, sony can still give themselves a sweetheart deal that allows them to make money from hardware production and software publishing, but the semi-independant company can keep its focus on gaming.

the PS3 and 360 will 'hit their stride' when the price hits the $199 sweet spot, with the way things are going, that will take at least a few more years, and a new nintendo HD console can be in the pipeline.

Convergence is what they are counting on and blu-ray is their swan song. They are already touting how games that are done on blu-ray would take multiple discs on other platforms so blu-ray is more than just a gimmick and it shouldn't be looked at as such.

Sony has a 10 year plan, they have already stated this and honestly "though expensive" it's one the best pieces of hardware i've bought for the money, hands down.

Also I don't get your "focus on games" spin. Sony has more in-house development going on atm than ever before and than any other company out there. They are putting some big production into their line-up, why you think it's taking so long for them to get going? They are building an empire, not just going for a quick fix.

[Rob2600]

You're comparing apples and oranges. First, obviously money matters to most consumers. ... This is why the PS2 is still selling. Pricing and Game Selection Choices. Those are the reasons.

I'm not comparing apples to oranges. In fact, you're actually proving my point: price, games, and marketing seem to matter more than graphics and technological power. That's why I think Wii sales will remain strong, even a few years from now. The Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 aren't as affordable, aren't as well marketed, and don't have as wide a variety of games, including exclusives like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Big Brain Academy, Super Mario, Super Smash Bros., and all of the Virtual Console games (NES, SNES, Genesis, Neo-Geo, etc.).

Besides, if Wii sales do start slipping a year from now, Nintendo will lower its price to $199 and it'll be right back on top again. Microsoft and Sony couldn't afford to compete with such a low price.

[Rob2600]

Sony has a 10 year plan, they have already stated this...

Why do some people keep falling for this "ten year" nonsense? As I wrote in a previous post, I remember reading an interview in Next Generation magazine ten years ago in which someone at Sony said the PlayStation would be a viable, active console for at least ten years. Clearly, that Sony executive was exaggerating. It's good public relations though. Marketing people say those types of things all the time. People shouldn't take it seriously.

As impressive as the PlayStation 3 might seem today, it'll seem like an antique in 2017. That's the reality of technology. Even a $2,500 computer seems old after five or six years, let alone ten.

[Xizer]

your anti-sony bias is even more annoying than normal



What are you talking about?

The PS3 is a flop, it's costing Sony hundreds of dollars on every one sold, and Blu-ray movies is not kicking off to a fantastic, long lived sales career.

The company has had to restructure themselves within recent years because they were losing money.

The PSP is flopping, and the UMD format crashed and burned.

Sony is not doing well, and that's not a bias: it's just the facts. I am not biased against Sony.

I quite like the PSP, in fact. Quite frankly, I don't know why everyone gets their panties in a bundle when I insult Sony anyway. Why would you defend an evil corporation? You do realize they're one of the "big four" members of the RIAA, don't you?

I guess you like their products which constantly launch with defects and infect your computer with DRM rootkits, though.

[chrisbid]

Convergence is what they are counting on and blu-ray is their swan song. They are already touting how games that are done on blu-ray would take multiple discs on other platforms so blu-ray is more than just a gimmick and it shouldn't be looked at as such.

Sony has a 10 year plan, they have already stated this and honestly "though expensive" it's one the best pieces of hardware i've bought for the money, hands down.

Also I don't get your "focus on games" spin. Sony has more in-house development going on atm than ever before and than any other company out there. They are putting some big production into their line-up, why you think it's taking so long for them to get going? They are building an empire, not just going for a quick fix.


they were counting on convergence to help out the company in their non-gaming areas, the playstation line itself did not need blu ray.

a single game disc vs games on multiple discs? thats not a feature anyone will pay a 50% premium for

a ten year plan cannot be successful if the first 2 or 3 years turns out to be a dud.

a good piece of hardware is pretty useless without software

to stay with the empire building analogy, the PS3 is the maginot line, a great product with a horrible strategy.

[Wolfrider31]

Why do some people keep falling for this "ten year" nonsense? As I wrote in a previous post, I remember reading an interview in Next Generation magazine ten years ago in which someone at Sony said the PlayStation would be a viable, active console for at least ten years. Clearly, that Sony executive was exaggerating. It's good public relations though. Marketing people say those types of things all the time. People shouldn't take it seriously.

As impressive as the PlayStation 3 might seem today, it'll seem like an antique in 2017. That's the reality of technology. Even a $2,500 computer seems old after five or six years, let alone ten.

I see your point, and that was my initial reaction when I read about the PS3 ten year plan. What I was trying to convey was that a ten year plan (or something close to it: 7 perhaps - longer than the typical life cycle) is in Sony's best interest. They are losing some serious cash on the PS3, moreso because it isn't doing as well as they had hoped and, if they're smart businessmen and women, they should be looking to extend that lifespan as long as possible.

I disagree (somewhat) with your assessment that PS3 tech would "look" antiquated in ten years. We're starting to produce technology that is capable of truly stellar graphics. Personally, the jump between the PS2/Xbox/GC generation and the current one isn't that large. Side by side comparisons certainly make the differences easy to distinguish, but in terms of actual gameplay it's difficult to notice unless you're looking for it. There isn't the WOW factor of the PS/N64 to PS2/GC/Xbox era. Or hell even the jump from 2D to 3D.

I'm not saying that better graphics are not possible, because that would be silly of me. What I AM saying is that the differences in graphical PUNCH are getting increasingly minute and selling a system on raw processing power isn't going to be a viable business strategy any more. It's not going to get a whole hell of a lot better than this, and consumers will be less willing to drop 600 bucks for games with "even more shimmer". I think Sony and MS are aware of this which is why the 10 year talk carries a little more weight. No one is going to buy a PS4 for just better graphics. There's no damn point. Mostly because the differences will be quite small.

Now, perhaps an entire processor devoted to AI. That's the s--t I could go for. :)

[neogamer]

What are you talking about?

The PS3 is a flop, it's costing Sony hundreds of dollars on every one sold, and Blu-ray movies is not kicking off to a fantastic, long lived sales career.

The company has had to restructure themselves within recent years because they were losing money.

The PSP is flopping, and the UMD format crashed and burned.

Sony is not doing well, and that's not a bias: it's just the facts. I am not biased against Sony.

I quite like the PSP, in fact. Quite frankly, I don't know why everyone gets their panties in a bundle when I insult Sony anyway. Why would you defend an evil corporation? You do realize they're one of the "big four" members of the RIAA, don't you?

I guess you like their products which constantly launch with defects and infect your computer with DRM rootkits, though.

So you think Microsoft making an optional HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 is a wise move? Are you aware that the HD-Drive costs Microsoft more to produce, manufacture, and market, than what they sell it for!

The PSP is an okay system. I think that of the DS as well, so I don't prefer one or the other, but Sony did make a mistake by promoting the PSP as an all purpose machine while trying to expolit the UMD format. That being said, you can't tell me that the PSP is a failure because it uses a dead MOVIE format. The system still has some great games!

Next, you talk about defective products. Microsoft didn't release two years worth of defective Xbox 360's? Come on....

I guess your a fan of Microsft Vista as well....another great move out of Redmond!

Its funny, most analysts call Microsoft the "evil corporation", just look at their stagnate stock price, but who cares about that, right???

[Rob2600]

I see your point, and that was my initial reaction when I read about the PS3 ten year plan. What I was trying to convey was that a ten year plan (or something close to it: 7 perhaps - longer than the typical life cycle) is in Sony's best interest. They are losing some serious cash on the PS3, moreso because it isn't doing as well as they had hoped and, if they're smart businessmen and women, they should be looking to extend that lifespan as long as possible.

You're right, but what will happen when Microsoft and Nintendo release their new consoles five years from now? The PlayStation 3 will seem old by comparison. However, as I have pointed out in several previous posts, that won't necessarily have a negative effect on sales, as long as the PlayStation 3 is affordable by then, has a good library of games, and is marketed correctly. Sony doesn't seem to be on track with any of those three things, but it'll be interesting to see if it can turn all of that around over the next five or six years.


Now, perhaps an entire processor devoted to AI. That's the s--t I could go for. :)

I agree. I noticed that Sony and Microsoft didn't brag about polygon count this generation. That's a step in the right direction. An AI processor or physics processor could be the next step.

[Rob2600]

The PSP is flopping, and the UMD format crashed and burned.

True, the Nintendo DS is outselling the PSP by almost 2-to-1, but that doesn't automatically mean the PSP is a flop. 20 million units sold in three years is respectable.

You're right about UMD movies though. According to Wikipedia's "Universal Media Disc" entry:

"In February 2006, Paramount Home Entertainment, Warner Home Video, and even Sony Pictures Home Entertainment announced that they were cutting back releases for the PSP, citing disappointing sales of about 50,000 per title. In March 2006, Reuters reported that Wal-Mart was considering abandoning sales of the format, and that Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Image Entertainment had ceased production. Other studios have reportedly terminated their production to the format as well.

In mid 2006, Target began pulling UMDs from shelves and replacing them with a section of independent movies selected by the Independent Film Channel."

[Wolfrider31]

The PSP is an okay system. I think that of the DS as well, so I don't prefer one or the other, but Sony did make a mistake by promoting the PSP as an all purpose machine while trying to expolit the UMD format. That being said, you can't tell me that the PSP is a failure because it uses a dead MOVIE format. The system still has some great games!



Actually, that's why I bought the PSP over the DS. It was pretty much sold on both, but only had the cash for one, and the added multimedia features nudged me in the Sony direction.


True, the Nintendo DS is outselling the PSP by almost 2-to-1, but that doesn't automatically mean the PSP is a flop. 20 million units sold in three years is respectable.



Agreed. 20 million units is practically unheard of for a game boy competitor. The PSP is doing extremely well. It just so happens that the DS is doing better. Which makes a lot of sense given their target audiences.

[GameDeals.ca]

Here's how I see it...

Nintendo: There will be a Wii HD, most likely in time for the standard 5-year cycle. Right about when people start to actually own HD TV's, and with High-def graphics combined with Wii controls, it'll sell VERY well, not to mention it will probably get a lot of ports from PS3/360 games that sold well. I'm more interested in what their next handheld will be.

Microsoft: The 360 will pick up once the "defective issue" is resolved, especially since the PS3 will still be failing for the forseeable future. Once the PS3 gains steam in a few years, Microsoft will come out with a next-gen machine that is even more of a "PC in your living room" box with more convergent technology. If they're smart, they'll drop all the DRM, make it the best damn multimedia machine ever made, connect to almost any device, act like a home-server to dish out content to all of your devices, and open it up to homebrew completely (like a PC)... and sell it with a profit margin (not at a loss).

Sony: I think they will do the "10-year plan"... I mean, the thing is a supercomputer and it will take 5 years before people fully unlock it's potential, and they will just make minor upgrades as the years pass. They are also trying to do the whole "Multimedia box" thing, so even if games don't do well, they have Blu-ray & downloadable content to make up for it. What interests me more is Sony's next handheld (if/when they decide to make one). I can't see Sony making another home console for a while since the PS3 hasn't even begun to take hold, and when it does, it will be more than powerful enough for the next 10 years.

Overall, Nintendo is the only video game console maker left. Sony & Microsoft are selling multimedia machines that also play games, but are more concerned with you buying movies/music/tv/etc. Calling the PS3 a game console is like calling my cell phone a handheld game machine.

[scooterb23]

I think you are all wrong.

[Zap!]

Ummm - who invented the video game? A German AMERICAN (All praise Ralph Baer)

Japan just stole the industry from us in the late 80's, when the MBA's took over the industry here, and fucked everything up.

Just like cars and TV's. Americans invented them, Japenese perfected them.

Actually, it all started in 1978 with Space Invaders, the first Japanese hit.

[neogamer]

Actually, that's why I bought the PSP over the DS. It was pretty much sold on both, but only had the cash for one, and the added multimedia features nudged me in the Sony direction.

Thats interesting, most buyers either want one of two things: A dedicated game machine, or a system that can do everything.

Am I the only one who bought a PSP just to play games? Seriously, I don't care about storing music, downloads, or anything!

I have no interest in ever owning an I-Pod or and I-Phone and I love the corporate culture (or non corporate culture, if you will) of Apple Computer Inc. Money has never been an issue either, believe me! I am truly lucky in that sense due to my frugality and my job!

I want to play games. After all, thats why when I bought my 3DO and Philips CD-I systems, I quickly moved on after a few months.

[neogamer]

Thats interesting, most buyers either want one of two things: A dedicated game machine, or a system that can do everything.

Am I the only one who bought a PSP just to play games? Seriously, I don't care about storing music, downloads, or anything!

I have no interest in ever owning an I-Pod or and I-Phone and I love the corporate culture (or non corporate culture, if you will) of Apple Computer Inc. Money has never been an issue either, believe me! I am truly lucky in that sense due to my frugality and my job!

I want to play games. After all, thats why when I bought my 3DO and Philips CD-I systems, I quickly moved on after a few months.

However, the Neo Geo AES system I bought at the age of thirteen, that everyone cautioned me against, is still one of my favorite systems of all time! It just played great arcade quality games. Maybe it is all a matter of preference?

I don't want a system that does it all! It tuns me off completely!

[Zap!]

Wouldn't it be great if Sony and Microsoft both left the video gaming business for good, and Konami and Capcom came out with systems? Then we'd only have real and true video game companies in the hardware business. The only better senario is if Sega re-enters the market.

[j_factor]

20 years ago (or so) it would've made a lot of sense for Capcom to enter the console market. Nowadays, no. They don't even have their own arcade hardware anymore. Same goes for Konami, which I think would be worse. I don't think Sega re-entering the console market would be any good either -- they're simply not that great, game-wise, anymore. An EA console would probably be feasible, but that would suck ass and I sincerely hope it never happens.

At one point, Namco was supposed to make their own console (like around 1990). I wonder what happened to that.

[neogamer]

Your forgetting the basics: economics.

It takes roughly 500 million dollars to successfully bring a home video game system to market. Hopefully it will sell, maybe it won't? The point is, no company wants to take that risk! Investors and shareholders don't want a software company to take that risk either!

Sega WAS always in the hardware business since they made arcade machines and some of the earliest consoles. They then jumped ship and are still trying to recover from the losses suffered from the "failed" Dreamcast line. And whether you like the Dreamcast(like me) or truly hate it, the Dreamcast did fail!

No company who successfully creates games for companies like Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft would seriously consider creating a home video game console in today's market.

Another electronics giant could (i.e. Philips, Panasonic, etc.) but a software company will not. The corporate management and investors would not allow that to happen at this point in time. I assure you.

BTW: The system that NAMCO had a part in development of in 1990 was called the Konix Multi System (I believe). I could be wrong, but that is what comes to mind. Epyx was also involved in that project as well? Anyway, I haven't had time to research it, but I think that is the system you are talking about.

[Zap!]

Your forgetting the basics: economics.

It takes roughly 500 million dollars to successfully bring a home video game system to market. Hopefully it will sell, maybe it won't? The point is, no company wants to take that risk! Investors and shareholders don't want a software company to take that risk either!

Sega WAS always in the hardware business since they made arcade machines and some of the earliest consoles. They then jumped ship and are still trying to recover from the losses suffered from the "failed" Dreamcast line. And whether you like the Dreamcast(like me) or truly hate it, the Dreamcast did fail!

No company who successfully creates games for companies like Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft would seriously consider creating a home video game console in today's market.

Another electronics giant could (i.e. Philips, Panasonic, etc.) but a software company will not. The corporate management and investors would not allow that to happen at this point in time. I assure you.

BTW: The system that NAMCO had a part in development of in 1990 was called the Konix Multi System (I believe). I could be wrong, but that is what comes to mind. Epyx was also involved in that project as well? Anyway, I haven't had time to research it, but I think that is the system you are talking about.

I'm afraid that you and the other guy are right. Even big companies like Capcom and Konami probably wouldn't have the massive funds to put out a successful system. Rich, non-video game companies like Sony and Microsoft have ruined it for them. A Capcom system would have been great in the past. Wonder if they ever thought about it...

You mentioned Phillips and Panosonic (who already had part in the failed 3DO), but you didn't mention Samsung, which is the largest electronics manufactuer in the world. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it in the next 10 years, as they certainly have the funds.

Finally, I don't think Namco had any involvement in the Konix Multi System.

[Rob2600]

The system that NAMCO had a part in development of in 1990 was called the Konix Multi System (I believe). I could be wrong, but that is what comes to mind.

We have access to an entire library of information at our fingertips, 24 hours a day: the internet! When in doubt, look it up. :)

According to Wikipedia.org's "Konix Multisystem" entry:

"The Konix Multisystem was an unreleased game console by British computer peripheral company Konix. It was widely announced in the computing press in 1989, and was intended to follow the success of the company's range of joysticks."

Konix Multisystem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konix_Multisystem)

That would be like if the company that makes those SideWinder computer joysticks decided to make a home video game console. Oh, wait...

[xfrumx]

Then we'd only have real and true video game companies in the hardware business. The only better senario is if Sega re-enters the market.

Sega would rule the word .... actually, probably not but it is nice to dream.

[neogamer]

Be careful when use Wikipedia (am I even spelling that right)?

Anyway, they have been wrong on a lot of things in the past! Other than that the internet is great for research! I should of looked it up, but I could of sworn Namco had some involvement in that?

Oh well,

I know of another Virtual Reality hardware company, but they made arcade VR systems and I think they went out of business?

[j_factor]

Philips, Panasonic, and Samsung (not to mention JVC, Pioneer, Hitachi...) have all manufactured consoles in some capacity before. Philips made the CDi. Panasonic was one of the companies that made 3DO systems (the others being Goldstar, Sanyo, and Creative), they almost released the M2 console, and they also made the Gamecube/DVD player combo system. Samsung manufactured and sold Sega's consoles (except Dreamcast) for the Korean market.

It's worth noting that before Playstation, Sony made a version of the CDi.

[Razor Ramon]

In another post, I stated that there is some doubt in the financial world as to whether or not Microsoft will in fact release another home video game system. The reason behind this is because, as many other companies have found out, it is very hard to compete in a Japanese dominated industry when you are an American company. Regardless, of Microsoft's deep financial pockets, I wanted to hear your comments on this issue.

Please refrain from any Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft bashing! You may post whatever you like, but I will say this. I am stock holder of all three companies, and I own all three systems as well, so I could care less! I do not have a favorite! I can play Gears of War, then play Wii Sports, while getting ready to do some serious damage in Resistance Fall of Man!

The purpose of this post is to have an intellectual conversation about where you personally think the industry is headed within 5-10 years! Will there be a Sony Playstation 4? Most analysts would say yes! Will there be another Nintendo home game system. Almost all the analysts in our industry would agree!

Ready to start? Okay, off to the comments.....this should get interesting!

Bump yo

[Nes]

I predict that Atari and Coleco will produce next generation video game consoles that will drive all but Nintendo out of the business.

[pasteofanchovie]

I think that the next generation of video game systems will still be Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, but it is hard to tell because they aren't the same kind of macines. Right now it seems like Sony is starting to go the way of Sega, by offering better graphics with mediocre games. It that is true then there will most likely be a PS4 and that will be it for Sony in the gaming market. Microsoft I could see making a PC-console hybrid and not pulling out of the market whether it is a flop or sells great because they do not need to worry about money loss. Nintendo seems like they will be in the video game market for awhile because they manage to get everyone who doesn't play games to play games by using new and creative ideas. The idea of an HD Wii seems very likely in a few years and I am very interested in what their new portable will be. I am quite interested who would take the place of Sony if they did drop out of the console market, hopefully Sega with some good games again, but that's most likely wishful thinking.

[Zap!]

Ummm - who invented the video game? A German AMERICAN (All praise Ralph Baer)

Japan just stole the industry from us in the late 80's, when the MBA's took over the industry here, and fucked everything up.

Japan steals eveything from Americans. We invented video games, cars, TV's, etc., and Japan took them over. However, I can't blame Japan one bit. While Americans invent, Japan perfects.

[Zap!]

I think that the next generation of video game systems will still be Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, but it is hard to tell because they aren't the same kind of macines. Right now it seems like Sony is starting to go the way of Sega, by offering better graphics with mediocre games. It that is true then there will most likely be a PS4 and that will be it for Sony in the gaming market. Microsoft I could see making a PC-console hybrid and not pulling out of the market whether it is a flop or sells great because they do not need to worry about money loss. Nintendo seems like they will be in the video game market for awhile because they manage to get everyone who doesn't play games to play games by using new and creative ideas. The idea of an HD Wii seems very likely in a few years and I am very interested in what their new portable will be. I am quite interested who would take the place of Sony if they did drop out of the console market, hopefully Sega with some good games again, but that's most likely wishful thinking.

Sadly, like someone mentioned before, it takes massive funds to come out with a video game system. I don't think Sega has that much cash right now.