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Zap!
12-10-2007, 01:20 PM
I'm usually not one to talk about new systems before thay are announced, but does anyone think the next Nintendo system will use a HD-DVD system? Afterall, HD-DVD is in a major war right now with Blu-Ray. Nintendo (and Microsoft too) would love it if Blu-Ray were to fail and HD-DVD became the standard.

On a related note, I believe the next Xbox (720?) will surely have an HD-DVD player. They already have the add-on for the 360, and MS is a major supporter of HD-DVD in the format wars.

PingvinBlueJeans
12-10-2007, 01:27 PM
I'm usually not one to talk about new systems before thay are announced, but does anyone think the next Nintendo system will use a HD-DVD system?
Probably far too early to speculate...I think Nintendo will be focusing on the Wii for a while. ;)

Anything's possible, but Nintendo's history of using odd formats (using carts for the N64, not using DVDs for the GC/Wii) leads me to think they will continue that strategy. They seem content to keep their consoles as strictly gaming machines.


On a related note, I believe the next Xbox (720?) will surely have an HD-DVD player.

Most likely.

wufners
12-10-2007, 01:32 PM
If HD-DVD is going strong when Microsoft makes their next console, I'm sure they will include it.

What will be even more interesting is if Blue-Ray is the clear cut format winner--will Microsoft license the technology from Sony? What an uncomfortable situation for them to be in!

As for Nintendo, my guess would be some kind of proprietary format.

Maybe something not even optical--like flash memory.

Mangar
12-10-2007, 01:34 PM
I tend to think the format war will be settled by then. You are talking at least 3-4 years down the line.

Wolfrider31
12-10-2007, 01:34 PM
They're going to use a delicious bass. Mark my words.

Zap!
12-10-2007, 01:38 PM
Probably far too early to speculate...I think Nintendo will be focusing on the Wii for a while. ;)

Anything's possible, but Nintendo's history of using odd formats (using carts for the N64, not using DVDs for the GC/Wii) leads me to think they will continue that strategy. They seem content to keep their consoles as strictly gaming machines.

You make some excellent points. However, they are going to have to increase the size capacity considerably for the next generation system. Their next system will surely be a 1080p HD system. The Wii uses DVD's (that don't play DVD movies, go figure) that hold 4.7 gigs. Can Nintendo devolop their own format to hold something roughly equal to an HD-DVD (25 gigs single layor, upwards of 50-100 gigs with duel, triple, etc. layors)? It may be cheaper just to ask Toshiba to license their format. Toshiba wants to win this war by any means necessary. It's likely they wouldn't even charge Nintendo one dime to use it, since it will be helping them out big time.

Zap!
12-10-2007, 01:42 PM
I tend to think the format war will be settled by then. You are talking at least 3-4 years down the line.

This is a very strange format war. Many major companies are siding with Blue-Ray, and others on HD-DVD. It is entirely possible that there will never be one clear cut winner. Imagine in 4 years: Regular DVD holds 25% of the market (it's at 95% still now, so it will be still be strong in 4 years), Blu-Ray holds 35%, and HD-DVD holds 40%.

MrSparkle
12-10-2007, 01:50 PM
nintendo using cf for game storage is highly unlikely as its MUCH more expensive than optical media and would cut into their profits this was a big problem for nintendo and its developers in the n64 era

Rob2600
12-10-2007, 01:52 PM
What will be even more interesting is if Blue-Ray is the clear cut format winner--will Microsoft license the technology from Sony? What an uncomfortable situation for them to be in!

Isn't that one of the reasons why Nintendo used cartridges for the Nintendo 64 instead of CDs? Nintendo wanted to avoid paying licensing fees to Sony. That, and the fact that CD-ROM drives were too slow in the mid-1990s.


Nintendo's history of using odd formats (using carts for the N64, not using DVDs for the GC/Wii) leads me to think they will continue that strategy.

Again, with the GameCube and the Wii, Nintendo wanted to prevent people from copying games, avoid licensing fees to the DVD Forum, and reduce loading times compared to standard CDs and DVDs.

wufners
12-10-2007, 02:03 PM
nintendo using cf for game storage is highly unlikely as its MUCH more expensive than optical media and would cut into their profits this was a big problem for nintendo and its developers in the n64 era

Yeah, it's more expensive today--but in 3 or 4 years? Just popping on to bestbuy.com right now I see I could get a 2 gig stick for $20. 4 years ago it cost me almost $100 just to get 75 MB. It still could be more expensive, but with the rate in which technology prices fall, who knows? It could be a feasible format. And with the way Nintendo hates load times, and the expense and more frequent failure of relying on mechanical parts to read games, it could be an attractive option for Nintendo. Aren't they already using something similar in the DS?

Not that I'm saying this will be the case--I'm merely suggesting it could be a possibility in a few years where as today, not so much.

Rob2600
12-10-2007, 02:18 PM
Yeah, it's more expensive today--but in 3 or 4 years? Just popping on to bestbuy.com right now I see I could get a 2 gig stick for $20. 4 years ago it cost me almost $100 just to get 75 MB. ... Aren't they already using something similar in the DS?

Right, the DS doesn't use optical media. Several years from now, why couldn't Nintendo's next home console use a similar medium?

Then again, the largest memory stick right now is 8 GB. HD content might need to be stored on something bigger. Would a 24 GB memory stick in the year 2011 be possible? If so, would it be cost effective?

CosmicMonkey
12-10-2007, 02:30 PM
I'm more interested in the seemingly inevitable update to the current Wii. After the multiple versions of its handheld systems, I'd be surprised if Nintendo didn't update the Wii in some way.

I'm wondering if Nintendo will release a shiny black version of the system in the near future with 720p output & scaler chip, some kind of internal storage, the ability to stream video/audio files over a network (which the current one can do with 3rd party software) and maybe even HD-DVD playback.

I know Nintendo have generally stayed away from the whole home media center thing, but I certainly think they are in a position to capitalise on the situation with the popularity of the Wii.

Rob2600
12-10-2007, 03:06 PM
I know Nintendo have generally stayed away from the whole home media center thing, but I certainly think they are in a position to capitalise on the situation with the popularity of the Wii.

But that's just it...the Wii is popular for a reason. Maybe it's because it doesn't have all of those fancy extras. It's just a good, affordable video game machine.

udisi
12-10-2007, 03:12 PM
I actually think you will see a clear-cut winner or TWO losers by the time Nintendo releases it's next system. You're probably looking at about 7 years from now too, not 3-4. The PS3 has enough technology to go for a long time if it can recover from it's piss poor start and lack of software. The 360 is just now starting to hit it's stride, and unless they are pushed to update sooner by a competitor, I don't see Microsoft releasing a new system when they can sit back and rake in some cash for a few years. Don't get me wrong they're probably planning on one, but they won't push it.

As for Nintendo, they have their own niche. They don't need HD-DVD, they have game play. I suspect that in Nintendo fashion, they may make add-ons or upgrades to the Wii (see e-reader/GB Player/etc). Nintendo is good at getting people to buy their gimmicky things. Now in 7 years you may see both HD-DVD and Blu ray dead due to the fact that they split the market or failed to develop a sufficient market do to one of them not giving up. Now if one survives and has a decent market come new console time, I'm sure both Microsoft and Sony (if they're still in it) will use the new dominant format. As for Nintendo, I tend to agree with others that say they will come up with some sort of special format.
He's the real darkhorse situation. It's also very possible that the big 3 could cut out formats completely and go download able media. Xbox live, Sony at Home, and the Virtual Console are all doing well, have less overhead, and are better suited to fight piracy. The next generation could see the extinction of the hard copy.

Rob2600
12-10-2007, 04:41 PM
I actually think you will see a clear-cut winner or TWO losers by the time Nintendo releases it's next system. You're probably looking at about 7 years from now too, not 3-4. The PS3 has enough technology to go for a long time

Yeah, right. That's what every hardware manufacturer says every time it releases a new console. And yet, five or six years later...

It's a silly PR gimmick that sounds great, but is unrealistic. Even a powerful $3,000 computer seems ancient seven years later. That's the reality of technology.

Poofta!
12-10-2007, 05:51 PM
But that's just it...the Wii is popular for a reason. Maybe it's because it doesn't have all of those fancy extras. It's just a good, affordable video game machine.

QTF.


all of you who want a media box, buy a 360 or ps3? oh youre not? too expensive you say? theres your answer.

josekortez
12-10-2007, 06:32 PM
But that's just it...the Wii is popular for a reason. Maybe it's because it doesn't have all of those fancy extras. It's just a good, affordable video game machine.

It's funny that you say that because for the last 3 months, I haven't played Wii. Today was the first day since August 18 that I have even removed my system from the box. I went back today and Wii Play was still in it. If it wasn't for Metal Slug, I wouldn't even be playing it right now. Affordable, yes. Good video game machine, questionable.

Well, I haven't played 360 in 3 months either...

Wolfrider31
12-10-2007, 08:07 PM
It's funny that you say that because for the last 3 months, I haven't played Wii. Today was the first day since August 18 that I have even removed my system from the box. I went back today and Wii Play was still in it. If it wasn't for Metal Slug, I wouldn't even be playing it right now. Affordable, yes. Good video game machine, questionable.

Well, I haven't played 360 in 3 months either...

I don't get that. So you weren't interested in Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy, or Zack and Wiki? Or anything on the Virtual Console?

Okay, so maybe that's understandable but not playing the 360 either surprises me. What do you usually play?

Half Japanese
12-10-2007, 08:15 PM
It's funny that you say that because for the last 3 months, I haven't played Wii. Today was the first day since August 18 that I have even removed my system from the box. I went back today and Wii Play was still in it. If it wasn't for Metal Slug, I wouldn't even be playing it right now. Affordable, yes. Good video game machine, questionable.

Well, I haven't played 360 in 3 months either...

To me, the Wii feels like a backstab more than a step forward. Nintendo might be picking up new customers left and right, but I can't see the appeal unless you're a fanboy or don't want to take the time to learn something other than a minigame. Sure, there are the first-party franchises that will resonate with Nintendo's older fanbase, but by and large it seems to get a lot of licensed shit that plagued the GBA, and not games that I personally want to play.

As for the HDM format war, my prediction is this: When Warner Bros. decides on a format exclusively, that format will probably take over, with mass defections from loyal one-siders. If Warner Bros. goes Blu-Ray, expect HD DVD to die within the year (with Paramount stuck in an 18-month exclusivity contract, no less). If they choose HD DVD, expect Disney and Fox to jump ship within six months and start supporting both formats, with Blu-Ray being in a bad way for the next year or so. It's interesting, but with CES coming up and one of Warner's suits hinting at probable exclusivity, it's going to get a hell of a lot more interesting. It could get potentially weird(er) though, as Fox and Sony have been buddy-buddy lately, with Fox distributing MGM titles, who Sony owns a nice chunk of.

swlovinist
12-10-2007, 08:34 PM
Newsflash: Games dont have to be mature, complicated, or violent to be fun. The Wii is a good system with good games. Sure it has bad ports too, but so does every other successful system. I know that some hate the system and the success it is having against the 360 and PS3. Saying that the games suck and the it doesnt have any good games is just being plain biased.


Onto the question asked: I see Nintendo doing thier own thing. Why should they comform to their competitors who arent doing as well as them? The Nintendo systems of the past have never been about the "all in one machine". I personally see Blu Ray eventually selling better than HD-DVD for one factor...Every PS3 can play the format. The HD-DVD addon for the 360 was a conservative approach, one that in three years be a factor.

Bottom line: Nintendo will keep doing what they always do. They will make Mario, Metroid, and Zelda games. Most of them will be done right. They will make just enough games to appease most people. They will continue to be some of the best and consistant franchises. The people who dont like the wii will find happiness in other consoles or PC computers. That is OK with me, as there always needs to be choices in game consoles.

megamaniaman
12-10-2007, 08:37 PM
I believe that the next system that Nintendo makes will either make or break Nintendo. They took a huge gamble with putting out the Wii and it paid off in a huge way. In a weird way Nintendo may of painted themselves into a corner with the Wii. I really have no idea what the next Nintendo system will be like. If they try to take the Wii a step further and make a Virtual Reality head set to go with the next system, too many people will associate the Virtual Boy and it's failure. If they try to amp up the graphics a ton then they will look like they are turning their backs on their game play is more important than the graphics statement. If I had to guess where they will go with the next system, I would say that they will play it safe and make a system with graphics slightly better than the current PS3. They will probably also include a HD or Blue Ray player with better online support for their games. Of course the famous controller will still be there, but I suspect that the controller will be able to a ton more things that it can currently do. Like give you voice feedback on playing the game better.

boatofcar
12-10-2007, 08:56 PM
Mark my words: this is last last generation of consoles with a digital format--all future consoles from the big three will have direct download only software and only keep the optical drive for movies and backwards compatibility.

Melf
12-10-2007, 09:06 PM
Isn't that one of the reasons why Nintendo used cartridges for the Nintendo 64 instead of CDs? Nintendo wanted to avoid paying licensing fees to Sony. That, and the fact that CD-ROM drives were too slow in the mid-1990s.

Again, with the GameCube and the Wii, Nintendo wanted to prevent people from copying games, avoid licensing fees to the DVD Forum, and reduce loading times compared to standard CDs and DVDs.

This is exactly what Nintendo's PR division spewed to the press all through the '90s. CD-ROM drives were more than adequate for gaming by the mid '90s (just ask Sony), and the only issue regarding licensing fees was that Nintendo would have lost all that free cash if publishers had to go elsewhere to press their games. With cartridges, Nintendo was the one who took your order and made the carts. Back in the NES days, companies had to order at least 10k per game, and Nintendo wasn't ready to give up this cash cow. Arrogance, greed, and a severe lack of foresight is why it went with cartridges for the N64, nothing more.

udisi
12-10-2007, 09:12 PM
Yeah, right. That's what every hardware manufacturer says every time it releases a new console. And yet, five or six years later...

It's a silly PR gimmick that sounds great, but is unrealistic. Even a powerful $3,000 computer seems ancient seven years later. That's the reality of technology.

The PS2 was launched in 2000 and the PS3 didn't launch until 2006. The Xbox360 launched earlier, but Microsoft was pretty much forced to get out there early because ps2 was stomping them. Gamecube was kinda the same boat, The gamecube lost 3rd party support pretty early in it's lifespan. You're gonna be looking at about 7 years at least between console cycles.

xfrumx
12-10-2007, 09:37 PM
Mark my words: this is last last generation of consoles with a digital format--all future consoles from the big three will have direct download only software and only keep the optical drive for movies and backwards compatibility.

I would hold out on saying that, here in WV there are still so many places without high speed internet. I would say one more generation then we will have our crappy no more physical media thing.

diskoboy
12-10-2007, 10:04 PM
I still think they're gonna start putting in HD-DVD drives in the 360, before too long.

Here's why....

MS is standing behind HD-DVD. Which means they have money invested in the formats future. HD-DVD aint doin' too hot, right now. They're gonna have to start putting them in the machines. And I think even those who have the external one will be able to play games with it.

And if they do, they'll continue to put games on DVD for early 360 adopters who don't have the HD-DVD drive, and they'll start making games on HD-DVD to 1. Justify the drive. 2. Finlly justify the $60 price tags on all these games. 3. Put data heavy games like Blue Dragon, on 1 disc.

MS could produce games on both mediums without upsetting early adopters.

Sorry to get off tangent, there..

boatofcar
12-10-2007, 10:19 PM
I would hold out on saying that, here in WV there are still so many places without high speed internet. I would say one more generation then we will have our crappy no more physical media thing.

In WV there were a lot of places without cell phone reception after cell phones became popular--I don't think it's indicative of how fast such a product will come to market.

Heck, I still couldn't get reception on any network when I went down to Ranger (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Ranger,+WV,+United+States+of+America&sa=X&oi=map&ct=title)last summer.

boatofcar
12-10-2007, 10:22 PM
I still think they're gonna start putting in HD-DVD drives in the 360, before too long.

Here's why....

MS is standing behind HD-DVD. Which means they have money invested in the formats future. HD-DVD aint doin' too hot, right now. They're gonna have to start putting them in the machines. And I think even those who have the external one will be able to play games with it.

And if they do, they'll continue to put games on DVD for early 360 adopters who don't have the HD-DVD drive, and they'll start making games on HD-DVD to 1. Justify the drive. 2. Finlly justify the $60 price tags on all these games. 3. Put data heavy games like Blue Dragon, on 1 disc.

MS could produce games on both mediums without upsetting early adopters.

Sorry to get off tangent, there..

What about Michael Bay's MS conspiracy? (http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9829956-1.html)


"What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about."

"That is why Microsoft is handing out $100m checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu-ray," he continued. "They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth."

Half Japanese
12-10-2007, 11:19 PM
Newsflash: Games dont have to be mature, complicated, or violent to be fun. The Wii is a good system with good games. Sure it has bad ports too, but so does every other successful system. I know that some hate the system and the success it is having against the 360 and PS3. Saying that the games suck and the it doesnt have any good games is just being plain biased.

If this is a reply to my statements, you're glossing over the parts where I state that this is my opinion. For me, the Wii offers nothing (save for maybe Metroid), and I don't see that changing in the near future. I agree that games don't have to be mature, but at the same time, I like a little more meat to my games than popping balloons with darts at a virtual carnival. I have no problem saying "I don't get it," because I don't.


What about Michael Bay's MS conspiracy? (http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9829956-1.html)

Michael Bay, if you couldn't already tell by his filmography, is full of shit. Microsoft's development in the formation of HD DVD goes beyond standing behind Toshiba like a big brother, what with them developing HDi, which allows for more interactive and in-depth special features that some HD DVDs enjoy (and also why some are reviewed better than their Blu-ray counterparts). Besides that, downloads are still a long way off, and with how splintered all of the studios are, chances are it's not going to be like iTunes used to be, with all of the big players are offering their wares at the same place.

One thing many people gloss over is the fact that HD DVD has a substantial lead in standalone players, because Sony has priced all but one model of their Blu-ray player-manufacturing bretheren out of the race. What that says, is that the people with standalone players bought it JUST for the movies, not as a game box that also happens to play hi-def flicks. Either way, I've got both and have no overstrong preference for one or the other, but like I said earlier, if your'e on the fence, wait for Warner to make their move. That will quite likely be the deciding factor.

monkeysuit
12-10-2007, 11:37 PM
I really wouldn't be surprised to see the next Nintendo console using the same old DVD format they use now. A more likely conclusion would be, that Nintendo will be the first to roll out their next library in complete digital format. Obviously Microsoft is going to go with an HD-DVD format and Sony has their Blu-Ray, maybe Nintendo will do something a little different?


In WV there were a lot of places without cell phone reception after cell phones became popular--I don't think it's indicative of how fast such a product will come to market.

Heck, I still couldn't get reception on any network when I went down to Ranger (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Ranger,+WV,+United+States+of+America&sa=X&oi=map&ct=title)last summer.


Yeah, trust me, WV is a nightmare when it comes to cell phones. AT&T just now started working in Charleston, Huntington, and Morgantown. The only service I've had luck with all over the state is Verizon.

Zap!
12-11-2007, 02:23 AM
Yeah, it's more expensive today--but in 3 or 4 years? Just popping on to bestbuy.com right now I see I could get a 2 gig stick for $20. 4 years ago it cost me almost $100 just to get 75 MB. It still could be more expensive, but with the rate in which technology prices fall, who knows? It could be a feasible format. And with the way Nintendo hates load times, and the expense and more frequent failure of relying on mechanical parts to read games, it could be an attractive option for Nintendo. Aren't they already using something similar in the DS?

Not that I'm saying this will be the case--I'm merely suggesting it could be a possibility in a few years where as today, not so much.

Do you mean you think the next Nintendo will use SD-type cards? While it certain is possible they could grow to 50 gigs in 5 years, and it's possible prices will be low, but they're way too small. Kids everywhere would lose them. Messy adults like me too. :)

Zap!
12-11-2007, 02:29 AM
It's funny that you say that because for the last 3 months, I haven't played Wii. Today was the first day since August 18 that I have even removed my system from the box. I went back today and Wii Play was still in it. If it wasn't for Metal Slug, I wouldn't even be playing it right now. Affordable, yes. Good video game machine, questionable.

Well, I haven't played 360 in 3 months either...

Perhaps you're no video game fan, just an occaisional gamer.

Zap!
12-11-2007, 02:33 AM
Newsflash: Games dont have to be mature, complicated, or violent to be fun. The Wii is a good system with good games. Sure it has bad ports too, but so does every other successful system. I know that some hate the system and the success it is having against the 360 and PS3. Saying that the games suck and the it doesnt have any good games is just being plain biased.


Onto the question asked: I see Nintendo doing thier own thing. Why should they comform to their competitors who arent doing as well as them? The Nintendo systems of the past have never been about the "all in one machine". I personally see Blu Ray eventually selling better than HD-DVD for one factor...Every PS3 can play the format. The HD-DVD addon for the 360 was a conservative approach, one that in three years be a factor.

Bottom line: Nintendo will keep doing what they always do. They will make Mario, Metroid, and Zelda games. Most of them will be done right. They will make just enough games to appease most people. They will continue to be some of the best and consistant franchises. The people who dont like the wii will find happiness in other consoles or PC computers. That is OK with me, as there always needs to be choices in game consoles.

Because Nintendo's arch enemy is Sony. If Nintendo had one wish it would be to destroy Sony. They LOATH Sony, it's beyond hate. Sony owns Blu-Ray. Its rival is HD-DVD. Siding with HD-DVD is one way to defeat Blu-Ray and Sony.

G-Boobie
12-11-2007, 03:17 AM
Mark my words: this is last last generation of consoles with a digital format--all future consoles from the big three will have direct download only software and only keep the optical drive for movies and backwards compatibility.

One hundred percent correct.

I'll take that a step further and say that neither HD-DVD or Blu Ray are going to succeed in the long term. Why wouldn't publishers of games, music and film go toward a digital distribution method? Storage is getting incredibly cheap, broadband internet access is growing exponentially, and without the need for packaging and manufacture, costs for publishers will drop. As an added bonus, it would rip the still beating heart out of used game stores.

Rob2600
12-11-2007, 07:55 AM
I believe that the next system that Nintendo makes will either make or break Nintendo.

Again with the "Nintendo is on the verge of bankruptcy" nonsense? That's what some people have been saying for a decade and it's silly.


I really have no idea what the next Nintendo system will be like. If they try to take the Wii a step further and make a Virtual Reality head set to go with the next system, too many people will associate the Virtual Boy and it's failure. If they try to amp up the graphics a ton then they will look like they are turning their backs on their game play is more important than the graphics statement.

I don't think so. Gamers get amnesia every five or six years:

In 1991: "I want a Genesis. Sega is awesome!"
In 1996: "Why would I want a Saturn?"

In 2000: "I want a PlayStation 2. Sony is awesome!"
In 2007: "Why would I want a PlayStation 3?"

Oobgarm
12-11-2007, 08:09 AM
One hundred percent correct.

I'll take that a step further and say that neither HD-DVD or Blu Ray are going to succeed in the long term. Why wouldn't publishers of games, music and film go toward a digital distribution method? Storage is getting incredibly cheap, broadband internet access is growing exponentially, and without the need for packaging and manufacture, costs for publishers will drop. As an added bonus, it would rip the still beating heart out of used game stores.

The general buying public is going to take a TON of convincing that a downloadable-only business model is going to be the way to go, regardless of the availability of broadband internet.

Shit, when faced with the prospect of buying a physical item for a slightly higher price vs. a virtual one, I go with the physical item every time.

And let's not forget the retailers, who will have a large say in the direction the market takes.

Don't get me wrong, it WILL happen in the future, but we're still a long ways off.

Gentlegamer
12-11-2007, 02:07 PM
One hundred percent correct.

I'll take that a step further and say that neither HD-DVD or Blu Ray are going to succeed in the long term. Why wouldn't publishers of games, music and film go toward a digital distribution method? Storage is getting incredibly cheap, broadband internet access is growing exponentially, and without the need for packaging and manufacture, costs for publishers will drop. As an added bonus, it would rip the still beating heart out of used game stores.The retailers will respond by saying, "sell your consoles online yourselves, while you're at it."

boatofcar
12-11-2007, 10:48 PM
The general buying public is going to take a TON of convincing that a downloadable-only business model is going to be the way to go, regardless of the availability of broadband internet.

Shit, when faced with the prospect of buying a physical item for a slightly higher price vs. a virtual one, I go with the physical item every time.


The buying habits of people who collect video games are not representative of the general buying public. Guess who's the third largest music retailer in the world?

The iTunes Music Store.

swlovinist
12-11-2007, 11:22 PM
Something to consider is the brick and mortar stores that promote Nintendo. I dont think Nintendo will go distribution only. They need Game Stores to promote their system, and to buy their software and games. I do believe that they will support HDTVs better in the future. Meanwhile Nintendo will allow the "elite" to enjoy thier 360 or PS3. The rest of world will be very happy with the Wii. For people to bitch about mini games, they need to spend some time with Mario Galaxy. Meat and Potatoes included.

Rob2600
12-11-2007, 11:32 PM
The retailers will respond by saying, "sell your consoles online yourselves, while you're at it."


Something to consider is the brick and mortar stores that promote Nintendo. I dont think Nintendo will go distribution only. They need Game Stores to promote their system, and to buy their software and games.

Why? Apple only sells music online via download, but stores still sell the iPod.

zemmix
12-11-2007, 11:50 PM
I don't think the next gen systems will move to a download only system yet. The big games are going to keep getting bigger which will take forever to download not to mention limit you to the number of games you could have at one time. Also grandma and grandpa won't be able to buy xmas or birthday games for the kids.

Smaller games will move more and more to download though. I love it because hopefully without the investment of packaging and retail space hopefully we will see more and more new odd and eccentric games that would have never made it out otherwise. If only Sony or MS would have more grass roots indy level developer support.

Oobgarm
12-12-2007, 06:12 AM
The buying habits of people who collect video games are not representative of the general buying public. Guess who's the third largest music retailer in the world?

The iTunes Music Store.

But who are the top two?

Wal-Mart and Best Buy; places that sell physical media. Seeing that in the first quater, only 13.8% of all purchased music is digital (http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/23/apple-passes-amazon-to-become-the-3-us-music-retailer/), I still say that business model has a LONG way to go before it grabs a majority stake in the market and surpasses or eliminates physical media.

xfrumx
12-12-2007, 06:47 AM
Most of my friends want physical copies of music still. I mean artwork, liner notes, lyrics are still a very important thing to the art for us (sometimes it does suck though). I would think we all feel the same about games. A local used gaming store here sells old nes, snes, n64, genesis EVERYTHING! The owner told me that since the virtual console he has had more people coming in wanting physical copies of old school games they downloaded. I would say that the hard copy is still alive and strong.

Rob2600
12-12-2007, 09:27 AM
But who are the top two?

Wal-Mart and Best Buy; places that sell physical media. Seeing that in the first quater, only 13.8% of all purchased music is digital (http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/23/apple-passes-amazon-to-become-the-3-us-music-retailer/), I still say that business model has a LONG way to go before it grabs a majority stake in the market and surpasses or eliminates physical media.

What percentage of music was purchased via download five years ago in 2002? I assume nowhere near 13.8%. What percentage of music will be purchased via download five years from now in 2012 or 2013? Maybe 30%? If so, that'd be huge.

Besides, as much as I am in the habit of buying actual CDs, all of that plastic (shrink wrap, jewel cases, discs, plastic bags, etc.) can't be good for our environment. Downloading songs, movies, and video games makes more sense.

Oobgarm
12-12-2007, 10:37 AM
What percentage of music was purchased via download five years ago in 2002? I assume nowhere near 13.8%. What percentage of music will be purchased via download five years from now in 2012 or 2013? Maybe 30%? If so, that'd be huge.

Besides, as much as I am in the habit of buying actual CDs, all of that plastic (shrink wrap, jewel cases, discs, plastic bags, etc.) can't be good for our environment. Downloading songs, movies, and video games makes more sense.

Like I said, I'm not ruling out the eventual takeover of downloading stuff. It's going to happen, though it's going to be a good long while before it does. Surely the next round of consoles will still be media-based...but might offer the alternative to download titles at a reduced cost(vs. retail). That will surely be the barometer by which the future is determined.

Even with downloaded media at 30% market penetration, which would be an impressive number, it's still not enough to really justify ditching physical media altogether. Sure, companies can pull the rug right out from under consumers and and force the issue, but it wouldn't be in their best interests. They'd be alienating a lot of people-those who don't have ample internet, those that prefer not to 'shop online', and those who are simply tethered to ownership of a physical item. If companies begin to lose consumers' faith, then they've got problems. There's no sense in the company(as a whole) saving money if they're going to see a decrease in overall sales. We're not talking about a "feast or famine" mindset here, but you can see I'm kinda pointing in that direction.

j_factor
12-12-2007, 09:09 PM
I don't think games will go download-only anytime soon. Next gen, games will be on formats similar to blu-ray in terms of capacity; they will demand that much space. Unless you have a T4 line all to yourself, 30 GB is a lot to download. I know bandwidth is increasing, but not that fast. And what would you store these games on? Either the console includes a ridiculously giant hard drive, or you have to purchase large amounts of memory (on whatever format). Either way is pretty impractical. Music is different -- albums aren't as big data-wise because they shrink a lot when you convert pure audio into a data format such as MP3. But games are already pure data, so you can't compress them that much.

Rob2600
12-13-2007, 02:00 AM
I don't think games will go download-only anytime soon. Next gen, games will be on formats similar to blu-ray in terms of capacity; they will demand that much space. Unless you have a T4 line all to yourself, 30 GB is a lot to download. I know bandwidth is increasing, but not that fast. And what would you store these games on? Either the console includes a ridiculously giant hard drive, or you have to purchase large amounts of memory (on whatever format). Either way is pretty impractical.

You're right, right now in the year 2007, that would be impractical. But how about in the year 2012 or 2013?

I just bought an external 320 GB hard drive a few weeks ago for $100. Can you imagine five years from now? 500 GB hard drives will be dirt cheap.

The only hurdle would be the internet connection. Right now, my 5 Mb cable connection maxes out at around 651 KB/s. Downloading a 20 GB game would take too long (about 9 hours). For more money, I could upgrade to an 8 Mb cable connection, but downloading a 20 GB game would still take too long (around 6 hours). True, games could be downloaded overnight, but I don't know if our instant-gratification society would tolerate that. Besides, leaving a machine turned on overnight is a waste of power.

Who knows how fast broadband internet connections will be in several years though? Maybe by then, cable companies will offer 10 Mb connections for $60 a month.

Oobgarm
12-13-2007, 05:16 AM
Who knows how fast broadband internet connections will be in several years though? Maybe by then, cable companies will offer 10 Mb connections for $60 a month.

Also keep in mind that companies will have to ensure that there will be no bottlenecks in the delivery process. For a AAA game, you're talking millions of downloads in the first week. I know I'd expect the same high speed as though I were the only one downloading it.

Integration of that might be cost-prohibitive, or negate any savings on packaging and distribution, etc.

BydoEmpire
12-13-2007, 05:53 AM
Don't get me wrong, it WILL happen in the future, but we're still a long ways off.I totally agree - we're just not there yet and we won't be for a little while. Maybe 10 years (2 upcoming generations). Too many consumers don't have HS internet, let alone internet fast enough to DL DVD-sized games. This won't change in 5 years. Particularly important for Nintendo who wants to sell to "everyone." Eventually yes, but not in the next generation.

I have no idea what Nintendo will do next, which is part of the fun. I wouldn't bet on any specific technology like HD-DVD, and I'd take a close look at what happens to the Japanese market in the coming years for clues.

Rob2600
12-13-2007, 09:22 AM
Too many consumers don't have HS internet, let alone internet fast enough to DL DVD-sized games.

As I've written in other threads, perhaps the console could download the first level or two. Then, while people are playing, the rest of the game could download in the background.

PentiumMMX
12-13-2007, 01:51 PM
I don't think discs\carts are going anywhere soon. There are still people like me who are on dial-up, and downloads would taker too long (It would take me nearly 2 days to download Phantasy Star Online: Blue Burst on dial-up).

Also, I bet Gamestop would sue every game company for going completely with digital distribution.

airraid
12-13-2007, 03:21 PM
both the next-gen Xbox and the next-gen Nintendo consoles have been in development for at least 1 year now if not longer.

I hope they both do away with optical disk drives for their games, I want everything to be solid-state for the sake of speed, reliability, durability, streaming data very rapidly into RAM allowing larger gameworlds.

only reason the next systems should have DVD would be for backward compatibility with Xbox360 and Wii games.

HD-DVD and Blu-ray are both far too slow, IMO, even with faster drives they will be too slow. compared to solid-state. I don't know if the next systems will use solid-state game-media or not. Sony has hinted that PS4 won't have (or might not have) an optical disc drive, though.

also, HD-DVD and Blu-ray are both merely stop-gaps until HVD (Holographic Versatile Disc) arrives anyway. there are at least two different competing holographic disc formats in development http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc
HVD and Tapestry Media by InPhase.

I don't know if either will be ready by the time of the next-gen consoles (2011-2012) but since I don't like optical disc technology, even the in-development holographic disc formats, anyway, I don't really care.

what matters (and what will matter in the future) is:
CPUs, GPUs, GPGPUs (general purpose GPU) CGPU (CPU-GPU hybrids),
RAM, mass-storage (harddrive or flash memory) and controller designs,
not so much removable media the games come on.

Rob2600
12-13-2007, 04:56 PM
HD-DVD and Blu-ray are both far too slow ... also, HD-DVD and Blu-ray are both merely stop-gaps until HVD (Holographic Versatile Disc) arrives anyway. there are at least two different competing holographic disc formats in development http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc
HVD and Tapestry Media by InPhase.

That's funny. Holographic storage media in one form or another have been rumored about for 20 years. Go ahead, keep holding your breath.

josekortez
12-13-2007, 04:59 PM
Perhaps you're no video game fan, just an occaisional gamer.

Blasphemer!

No, honestly, with me right now, it's really more of a space issue. In my new smaller apartment, I've got an NEX, a Saturn with an Action Replay in it, a Dreamcast, a PSone with screen attached, a slim US PS2, a slim Japanese PS2, DS Lite, GB Micro and both the phat and small PSPs, and I play at least a few different systems per week, but Wii doesn't have enough games to rate me giving that space on the shelf and the 360 needs a wide open space to set on so it doesn't overheat. After I try out Elebits, the Wii is probably going back into the box again for a long winter's nap...

Believe me, I've got another 6 or so systems and hundreds of games sitting in a storage unit right now because I have no where to put them, so I would never consider myself an "occassional gamer."

G-Boobie
12-14-2007, 04:43 AM
I'll put money on digital distribution overtaking physical distribution in the games industry by 2012. By overtake I mean generate 51% of industry software revenue or more in that year. Any takers?

I agree that physical media won't be going away completely for a long time, but we're seeing a turn towards the digital model already with studios producing titles for PSN, Xbox Live Arcade, and soon WiiWare. And let's not forget the mighty PC, which has an install base that makes even the DS look like small potatoes; there are a LOT of games on Steam and Gametap.

As far as alienating people without broadband connections, Apple has been doing that with the iPod for what, five years now? It seems to have worked out pretty well for them so far.

And incidentally, if you can't wait a few hours for a new game to download, you seriously need to get some help. How many games do you own, in how many formats? Play something else, or even DO something else. People download albums, movies, and games on their hard drives right now, and it seems to work out OK.

...We're a tad bit off topic, aren't we? :)