Conspiracy Theory: Blu Ray 360 soon?

[Dangerboy]

Please undertand this post is 100% theorization and 100% flame war free. This is mainly the results of two co-workers bored at work.


The Question: Is Microsoft on the verge of announcing a BluRay XBox 360?

The Observations:
a. There was supposedly a huge HD-DVD based Microsoft announcement at CES that was abruptly cancelled when a major movie studio announced they are going strictly BluRay.

b. There has been a severe LACK of Xbox 360 consoles in our area. In the last month and a half we've had maybe 6 to 8 total. Prior to Christmas were were swimming in them. Specifically, the Xbox Elite's are nowhere to be found. We even hav an email confirming there will be no Elite shipments for the month of February.

c. The HD-DVD Add-on Player has been discounted to $129.99, a $50 price drop.

d. Microsoft said they would consider bringing the BluRay technology to their side of the table if that was what the gamers / consumers wanted.

e. There is a GDC conference coming up. Would be a nifty time to make an announcement.

The Theories:

a. Microsoft is preparing a universal BluRay drive 360 deck within the normal Arcade, Pro, and Elite. All pack-in materials stay the same.

b. They are converting the Elite by itself into a BluRay compatible player, and releasing a BluRay Module for separate purchase in the same vein as the HD-DVD Drive.

c. Either of the above, but the "add-on" module will be both HD-DVD AND BluRay.

This is very intriguing concept because if with a BluRay drive, despite 'losing the format battle', the Xbox 360 would literally become a PS3 system that doesn't play Metal Gear of Final Fantasy. Many, many customers I've talked to say they use the PS3 more of a movie player than game system.

If that is true, would the royalties Sony gets from the media format be over-shadowed by those who can now have their BluRay movie AND BioShock, Halo 3, etc.

Would Microsoft take the plunge? Would this partnership affect the Wii in any way?

Let the chaos theories begin!

[Ponyone]

Some hollywood insiders (directors, Michael Bay among them) said that Microsoft went HD-DVD and wanted it to fail because they want downloadable movies to be the future/money maker on the 360 concerning video.

Speculation, but who knows.

[Frankie_Says_Relax]

Even though they've been on record as saying they'd support the eventual winner of the format war...

... I'm not sure that Microsoft would get behind Blu-Ray discs any MORE than they did with HD.

Sure, I could see them releasing an external Blu-Ray player drive, but if they're not incorporating the drive into the 360 itself, I'm not sure it'll really have the same effect on potential Blu-Ray enthusiasts as the PS3 does.

Personally, I think that if MS had added HD compatibility INTO the 360 when they did the "ELITE" SKU, it could have had a much greater impact on the HD/Blu-Ray retail sales for that entire year.

While I think that Blu-Ray has a minor edge in terms of being a media option (overall greater capacity, Blu Ray Java) the bottom line for me is having complete access to all major studios and releases ... and if MS had added an HD Drive into the 360 itself I would have probably sold my standard 360 and bought the Elite (or whatever one had HD) so I could have the Blu-Ray AND HD options.

I never liked the idea of having a separate (fugly looking IMO) drive on the side of my 360 and taking up space on my entertainment center.

I mean, whatever the case may be, I don't think it's beyond MS to support Blu-Ray in some capacity ... however, if they do, they'll know they're lining Sony's pockets ... so they'll probably do it in some way that makes 360 users have to jump through some hoops to make it all happen.

And I don't think they're going to incorporate the drive into the 360 itself, since they never went that way with HD ... and as previously stated, they seem to be more interested in digital distribution anyway.

Plausible.

[Rob2600]

I don't think it's beyond MS to support Blu-Ray in some capacity ... however, if they do, they'll know they're lining Sony's pockets

Exactly. That's also why Nintendo never released a CD-based console.

[otaku]

HD DVD is dying. They need to abandon it. And adopt bluray but I can see why they don't want to but they should at least make it an available option. The best plan would be for them to go the download path and support and expand hard drive support for 360 (120+ gig drives!!!)

[Mr.collection]

I think that HD-DVD is failling because you have to buy a spare drive for the 360 if it was bulit in like the PS3 has BluRay it would be doing better.

I have also heard the Elite is discontinued and that there might be a new version 360 with the Toshiba badge on it with it being geared more towards entertainment and not just games.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

I would think the standard 8gb storage of a standard DVD isn't going to be enough to stay competitive, if games start getting bigger. So I could see them adding a blu-ray drive down the road so they could keep up with the PS3. But who knows for sure?

[norkusa]

I think that HD-DVD is failling because you have to buy a spare drive for the 360 if it was bulit in like the PS3 has BluRay it would be doing better.

But if they built HD-DVD into the 360, then they'd loose a lot of money on console sales because the retail price would be $100-$150 higher than what it is now and MS wouldn't be in second place. It's a double edged sword.

I thought it was smart what they did by giving people the choice of having HD-DVD, unlike what Sony did with the PS3. Now that the technology is getting cheaper though, the timing might be right for MS to make a blu-ray 360.

[esquire]

I don't think this is likely at all. Most of the reason why Microsoft favored HD-DVD over Blu-ray stems from the Blu-ray camp's decision against using Microsoft's IHD technology to add interactive features to Blu-ray disks, opting instead to stick with software based on Java technology.

I just don't see MS having to pay Sun Microsystems for having to incorporate their technology into the 360.

[esquire]

But if they built HD-DVD into the 360, then they'd loose a lot of money on console sales because the retail price would be $100-$150 higher than what it is now and MS wouldn't be in second place. It's a double edged sword.

I thought it was smart what they did by giving people the choice of having HD-DVD, unlike what Sony did with the PS3. Now that the technology is getting cheaper though, the timing might be right for MS to make a blu-ray 360.

With the current drop in price of HD-DVD players (I picked up my 720P Toshiba for $129.99) perhaps Microsoft is looking to incorporate HD-DVD directly into the console. Think about it. If the 360 can do for HD-DVD (albeit a little too late) what the PS3 did for Blu-ray, there is good reason for Toshiba to team up with MS and subsidize the incorporation of HD-DVD into the 360 at minimal cost to the consumer.

I am not sure if it would be legally possible, but I don't see HD-DVD dead just yet, and if they are on the ropes, then such an act of desperation could help keep HD-DVD alive.

[Bojay1997]

I doubt Microsoft is going to offer an integrated Blu Ray solution, especially since they never even did that with HD DVD which is a format they were promoting. Here's the reality, even with Blu Ray winning the "war", most HD adopters are not upgrading their DVD players to HD models yet. In fact, if you look at the numbers, we are probably a good 3-4 years away from Blu Ray reaching critical mass. People have massive DVD collections and even most cinephiles are not willing to replace their large DVD collections with Blu Ray discs since they tend to be more expensive and most niche titles are not even available yet in the format. I have a high end Sony Bravia, but the limited Blu Ray and HD DVD library has stopped me from buying a player even though they are now less than $300 for a midrange model. My upconverting DVD player does just fine and until I have no choice but to rent Blu Ray at Hollywood Video and Blockbuster, I don't see the need to upgrade. I know many of my friends feel the same way.

[mnbren05]

I was on the verge of buying HD-DVD for my 360 but I'm glad I held off. I doubt they would make a combo drive unit out of the 360. Blue Ray would be a most likely add on unit to the 360, but I doubt one will appear for a long time. I think DVD still has some fight in it and until they are forced to, Microsoft will not adopt the Blue Ray.

[chrisbid]

why raise the price of the 360 any more? its the biggest advantage MS has over sony. the PS3 has been chipping away due to their aggressive price drops

[Half Japanese]

I can't see this happening. Too many variables. For one thing, if MS didn't believe in HD DVD (a technology they helped create and were on the board of) enough to ever actually put it in a console, why would they pay money to license Blu-ray technology from Sony so they could start seeing their sales taper off due to higher prices? If they weren't capable of including a technology with little to no licensing fees on their part, I can't see them having much incentive to pay Sony extra money for each console they sell. Sure, it might rejuvenate 360 sales, but they would either be losing money on each console or paying so much in licensing/royalty fees to Sony as to make it a non-issue from a financial standpoint. If anything, I could see a standalone, but MS probably doesn't want to jeopardize their relatively comfortable middle position by making their consoles as prohibitively expensive as the ps3 was at first (HDM player or not).

Drifting off topic here, but man do I miss the days when all you had to look forward to with a new SKU was a redesign late in the system's lifespan or an aesthetic facelift.

[sabre2922]

With Microsofts track record I think it more likely that they will release a new console before releasing a Blue-Ray featured 360 although it is a slight possiblity since the 360 is still relatively new.

[swlovinist]

nope, I dont see this happening at all. MS will turn over and die before it supports Sony. They will push downloadable content before they support Blu Ray

[Gentlegamer]

I hope Blu-ray isn't built into the Xbox 360 since it has a longer load time for games requiring cloned sectors and hard drive installs.

[Slate]

Well it would make people upset (Like me) If they did. I have reasons.