New-gen Consoles coming up on their half-life?

[dlopez9069]

I did a little bit of research(not much though) and came to the conclusion that in only three years the systems we are all playing now are probably going to be last gen. heres my little bit of research so you can see what I mean:

Atari 2600 1977 8
NES 1985 Years

NES 1985 6
SNES 1991 Years

SNES 1991 5
N64 1996 Years

N64 1996 5
GC 2001 Years

GC 2001 5
Wii 2006 Years

Wii 2006 5
??? 2011 Years


I used Nintendo because they have been front runners in the console wars for the longest time. I know it really doesn't mean much but what I was thinking is if they are not releasing mostly good quality games now how will the next 3 years look. Oh and this is also in response to the people on numerous threads who say its too early to talk about next gen because I'm pretty sure Nintendo, Sony, & Microsoft are.


Just sharing my thoughts and ramblings.

[Dangerboy]

It's been pretty common knowledge that a game system's average "mainstream" life is 5 years, with fringe years being anywhere from 1 to 4 years (or 5, if you're the original Playtation).

5 years seems to be the definining "attention span" before the "I need something NEW" thought starts screaming into your head. Heck, I had a customer not a week ago tell me they were just going to skip PS3 and wait for PS4.

This 5 year plan would also help hardware developers plan ahead when they need to have the deck and specs ready by. Nintendo themselves admitted the Wii's insane popularity, which hasn't faded at all, has screwed up their planning of the next system since they haven't met the current demand.

What will be interesting to see is if Sony keeps their "10 Year" promise with the PS3. I could easily see Microsoft moving on, but it's Nintendo that has me curious as to their plan of action.

[KanYozakura]

I think that both Nintendo and Microsoft are going to stick to the 5 year plan.

Microsoft will dump the 360 just like it dumped the original Xbox, making the PS3 look outdated and forcing everyone to upgrade again. Hell, they already moved a game ahead to the next system, so it can't be that far off. Also, I think they'd rather just release a new console and drop the 360 than fix the 360 RRoD altogether.

Nintedo's had huge success with the Wii, and I think they'll capitalize on that by coming out with a better motion-control system coupled with cutting edge graphics to bury the other two. I view the Wii as a litmus test more than anything.

And yes, Sony will ride both the PS2 and the PS3 into the dirt before even thinking about PS4.

[DefaultGen]

.....

[mercarian]

Honestly, I think that the life span of systems will become shorter as technology advances. Hell, 10 years ago you had to wait a long time before a movie would come on on vhs, now there out on dvd within weeks. I don't think the Ps3 made a hugh impact on the market, like it was intended to do. Hopefully, the 5 year plan will stick out, (gives good systems/games/etc) but I highly doubt it. Really good thread 0_o

[DJ Daishi]

ahh, this topics is making me feel old...

[dlopez9069]

Personally I think sony is going to take it hard because they were/are planning to ride on the success of the ps2 & 3 for awhile, but ps3 really isnt selling as well as they expected.

Nintendo was kinda going out on a limb with the motion controls and now they don't really know how to build on that without basically making a wii clone.

Microsoft seems to have it right. The only thing that I think will hurt the market is that if the next gen just isnt stunning enough for the future gamers to put down the old systems. highly doubted though.

[CartCollector]

Nintendo was kinda going out on a limb with the motion controls and now they don't really know how to build on that without basically making a wii clone.

Well, first of all, the market would be estatic over a "Wii clone" with better graphics and motion sensing. Imagine a Wii with graphics better than the PS3 and a Wiimote with Sixaxis-style motion sensing. Who doesn't want that? It would solve the main complaints against the Wii besides developer support, and if the Wii continues to sell as well as it has, that could also not be an issue. Second of all, a Wii clone would be very easy to make, and because of the almost guaranteed support for it, it would be low-risk as well. If the Wii is really as wonderful as its proponents say it is, making a sequel would be easy and profitable.

[G-Boobie]

Nice thread. New-Gen consoles coming up to their half-life? I think so.

As an aside, I think that the PS3 has quite a bit of life in it yet: people are way too down on Sony this generation, I think. If I were a betting man, I'd say that the PS3 will end up as embedded in the market as the PS2 is. It'll just take longer, that's all. Never undersell the power of the Sony and Playstation brands, especially since Blu-ray won the format war(much to my surprise).

Either way, the only company making money in all of this is Nintendo. Microsoft and Sony are still losing money on every console sold(they might be breaking even by now?) while Nintendo makes money on every Wii. Can even Sony or Microsoft afford to keep this weird console cold war going indefinitely, losing money 90 percent of the time? Hell no. Personally, I'd be mad as Hell if Microsoft unveiled their new console anytime before 2010: I can't justify the expense of upgrading again without choosing a side, which I'd rather not do.

Pushing technology will only get you so far: specifically, in the living rooms of the 'hardcore' niche market. That's fine and all, but if they're serious about their desire to bring video games into the mainstream, they need to keep their consoles affordable, and they need to keep them accessible.

[Leo_A]

I agree, they need to make money before they move on. I can almost guarantee you that MS has no intentions of a 5 year plan for the Xbox 360. Releasing a new console that will lose you a significant amount per system sold just as your previous system is gaining a large install base and finally doesn't have to be sold at a loss doesn't make any sense, MS only did it last time because they couldn't drive the price of the components far enough down to turn a profit, so they abandoned it early. They never expected the Xbox to be profitable, it was intended for them to gain a beachhead to establish themselves in this market.

They're here to make a profit, not to subsidize hardcore gamer's desires for the latest hardware without ever getting the overall program in the black. These things are getting too expensive, and as that continues to increase, I think we'll see console lifes lengthened even further in order to profit once production cost have been lowered thanks to economies of scale and advancing technology.

There's no hope in turning a profit on a high end console anymore when it's new, you either have to recap those losses late in the system's life, or take the Nintendo approach with technology and release a Xbox 360 and PS3 replacement with smaller upgrades than traditionally expected.

[Xizer]

I don't even own any of the new generation consoles yet so that should be a good indicator of how much life they have left in them. I'd say a minimum of four more years.

There is literally nothing that I can think of to warrant upgrading. Not a huge graphical increase. Online functionality and high definition have already been fully tapped with the Xbox 360 and PS3, which was this generation's gimmick that warranted a new round of systems.

[smork]

I don't even own any of the new generation consoles yet so that should be a good indicator of how much life they have left in them. I'd say a minimum of four more years.

There is literally nothing that I can think of to warrant upgrading. Not a huge graphical increase. Online functionality and high definition have already been fully tapped with the Xbox 360 and PS3, which was this generation's gimmick that warranted a new round of systems.

For once I agree with you. Unless we're talking pure photo realism or high-def 3D gaming, what else is there to add? The games already look fantastic.

[dlopez9069]

For once I agree with you. Unless we're talking pure photo realism or high-def 3D gaming, what else is there to add? The games already look fantastic.

true, but how much of a jump did people see coming from 8 to 16-bit? or when all of their reliable carts became shiny "CEE-DEES"? I'm pretty sure that there is alot of room for improvement just not graphical as ya'll are thinking. I believe the next big hardware jump is going to speed up processing speed so that our 4 million hour HD copy of the newest title wont lag too hard.

[Fuyukaze]

I think as time goes by we'll see less and less software that pushes the hardware and more and more hardware that pushes the developers of the software that runs on it. It's already happening with systems like the PS3 and the Wii where developers are forced to program for hardware that's difficult at best or uses a control scheme that's forign to what they are used to. It's sad because looking back on the days of the NES, SNES, and Genesis, you could tell the hardware was being pushed my a number of the later released games. These days, the hardware is often times abandoned long before the games even come close to maxing out let alone tricking out the full potential of the hardware. How many people honestly feel there was a single game released for the PS1 that came close to making the system perform stuff it was never intended to? PS2? How about the Gamecube or the X-Box? Using examples like the Dreamcast or the N64 dont feel right with me due to customer support failing long before third party support. Sure, the N64 had some first party, but the Dreamcast was abandoned even by Sega before 2002 was even up.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

So if it's the half-life, when are prices coming down? I'm getting bored with the Wii- the only one I could warrant purchasing.

[heybtbm]

There's already games being developed for the next Xbox. It was mentioned in EGM several months ago.

[Clownzilla]

Well, to be honest I think this will be the end of the line (for at least a decade) for the wife & I for purchasing consoles. With the console prices getting so high anymore, it's hard for a person to purchase game systems every 5 years. The wife & I own a Wii, 2 DS systems and a gaming grade PC. There is absolutely no way we are going to allocate another $500 console cost (+games +accessories) to our entertainment budget every five years. Now, we both like gaming, but the console cycle is just to fast for us.

[Dragon Warrior Jasen]

I don't think we can consider them quite at a half life yet. Right now, as technology grows exponentially, I think the time between console releases is going to go up.

Right now, PS3 is 2 years in and it has not even come close to peaking with titles, accessories, etc. XBOX360 is at 3 years and its doing very well with games and has it its stride with reliability.

I think we are going to start seeing a lot more in the way of upgrades to the consoles or new iterations (similar to Sega Genesis and its ton of addons). I believe the PS3 has a few more revisions including a slim lined version and the 360 has a Bluray player inside it in the future.

These upgrades will prolong the life longer than we are used to.

[Niku-Sama]

wonder if any of the new stuff will be internally liquid cooled.

i rember a roumer about the 360 being liquid cooled before it was released, thought it was funny because theyre heat pipes you can find on almost any cpu or gpu cooler now....well decent ones atleast. not exactly liquid cooled

[Xizer]

true, but how much of a jump did people see coming from 8 to 16-bit? or when all of their reliable carts became shiny "CEE-DEES"? I'm pretty sure that there is alot of room for improvement just not graphical as ya'll are thinking. I believe the next big hardware jump is going to speed up processing speed so that our 4 million hour HD copy of the newest title wont lag too hard.

There was a huge jump between 8-bit and 16-bit. Saving, better graphics, more buttons - there was good reason to jump to 16-bit. Comparing The Legend of Zelda and A Link to the Past, there is a huge difference. And when carts became CDs, that was the 3D revolution. I'd call that a big fucking jump all right.

[Iron Draggon]

hey, it's even worse for us PC gamers... we're forced to upgrade every other year... and I expect Microsoft to push for the same trend with consoles... that's why they killed off the XBOX so early... they're in the PC business, and they want to make the console business just like the PC business... they want to sell obsolescence to everyone, not just their faithful PC followers...

[Osaka]

I definitely think the 360 has hit the midway point for sure, but I don't think the Wii and the PS3 are quite there yet.

[strassy]

true, but how much of a jump did people see coming from 8 to 16-bit? or when all of their reliable carts became shiny "CEE-DEES"? I'm pretty sure that there is alot of room for improvement just not graphical as ya'll are thinking. I believe the next big hardware jump is going to speed up processing speed so that our 4 million hour HD copy of the newest title wont lag too hard.

i think this is a good point. i remember thinking to myself when i first saw 3DO "there is no way video games could ever look more realistic than this"

[mercarian]

There was a huge jump between 8-bit and 16-bit. Saving, better graphics, more buttons - there was good reason to jump to 16-bit. Comparing The Legend of Zelda and A Link to the Past, there is a huge difference. And when carts became CDs, that was the 3D revolution. I'd call that a big fucking jump all right.

Completely agree. At that time period, technology swelled up extremely quickly. Now I think that consoles need to distinguish themselves from one another. I attribute the success of the Wii due to its controller, the online gaming of the xBox and the graphics of the Ps3. Really, anyone can be entertained by one of these consoles. I think in the future, we will see different forms of gaming.

[sabre2922]

The PS2 has lasted 9 strong years since its Japan launch in 2000.

Sure its on its last legs now but there are still some good 3rd party publishers putting out some good games like Persona 4 even to this day.

Both the Dreamcast and Xbox 1s lifespans were cut incredibly short last gen ESPECIALLY THE DCs as we all know.

That being said I think the both the Xbox360 and the PS3 have the potential to outdo even the PS2s long lifespan.

What does that mean? I know I may come across as a fanboy but with the PS3 having the chosen future disc format for both entertainment and video games in Blue-Ray it COULD last as long as a FULL 10 years and the 360 MAYBE as long as 7 years IF Microsoft supports it for that long.

The Wii ? who the hell knows? I love the console but I wont even touch that one.

On the a couple of other subjects that was brought up in this thread:

I thought the largest leap in within the last few generations of video games was not between the 8-bit and 16-bit era of videogames but between the 32/64-bit era and the "last gen" era of the PS2/Xbox1/GC with not only graphics but in terms of full use of the "CD/DVD" format and implementing 3-D gameplay with the then fancy new 3-D graphics.

Also unlike many gamers here at DP I welcomed the change from the cartridge format to the "hardcore" hated CD format but thats for a different thread.

[cessnaace]

My thoughts,

There's no way Nintendo is going to stop making wii's anytime soon. They haven't even managed to ramp up production enough to meet the demand. And unlike the others, especially Microsoft, they actually make money off each unit sold. As it is, I've never seen one in person. No store can keep any in stock.

Microsoft. What can I say? I DID finally buy an Xbox, but it was this past December. The 360? No way I'm buying one until they solve the RROD problem! I love my Xbox though. It has quite a few really good games. Right now I'm enjoying 'Crimson Skies: High Road to Revenge.' A killer game, and an Xbox exclusive!

Sony? I want a PS2, but I probably won't buy one until the PS4 comes out. I usually stay about a generation or two behind (although I DO have two DS's). It's cheaper that way. I just have a problem letting go. I never sell an old game or system. I also don't trade them in. I still have 'Alf' for the SMS, for crying out loud! Not to mention 'E.T.' for the 2600, 'Hover Strike' for the Jaguar, 'Gilligan's Isalnd' for the NES, etc. LOL!


Mark

[Rob2600]

These days, the hardware is often times abandoned long before the games even come close to maxing out let alone tricking out the full potential of the hardware. How many people honestly feel there was a single game released for the PS1 that came close to making the system perform stuff it was never intended to? PS2? ... Using examples like the Dreamcast or the N64 dont feel right with me due to customer support failing long before third party support.

The Nintendo 64 was pushed pretty far. I can't imagine an N64 game looking much better than Perfect Dark or Conker's Bad Fur Day.

The Dreamcast was pushed pretty far, too: Shenmue, Jet Grind Radio, Metropolis Street Racer, Test Drive Le Mans, MDK 2, Street Fighter III, Dead or Alive 2, Resident Evil - Code: Veronica, NFL 2K2, NBA 2K2, The House of the Dead 2, etc. Again, I can't imagine Dreamcast games looking much better than those.

[josekortez]

The PS2 has lasted 9 strong years since its Japan launch in 2000.

Sure its on its last legs now but there are still some good 3rd party publishers putting out some good games like Persona 4 even to this day.

I, for one, hope that the PS2 continues to put out games for at least another year. If they can support it for two more, I'll be good to go. If not, there are plenty of imports out there for me to try to decipher and figure out how to play.