Ghost Recon prophecy?

[Iron Draggon]

I hate FPS, and I'm not a Tom Clancy fan either, but this story is interesting!

http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/08/13/did-ghost-recon-predict-russia-georgia-conflict

And even more interesting is this quote from the Wiki entry on Ghost Recon:

"In a 2006 interview with the New York Times, Clancy suggested that the plot for the original Ghost Recon was inspired by a "letter" he had received from a CIA "official." When asked to provide more detail about the "letter," Clancy refused to comment further."

[modest9797]

Interesting story.

Rainbow 6 is better though.

[Ed Oscuro]

Bottom line, Clancy writes a lot of shit and coincidences will happen.

More bottom lines: While the timing is interesting (only some four months off the "prediction"), and while I could point to the times Clancy's works just inflame anti-US rhetoric (see: GRAW series), or aren't close to reality, these events do not really support Clancy's consistent message, which has been (as far as I can parse it) "USA ARMY rule, diplomat drool."

Don't get me wrong; I love the Army, but there's some things they can't do, and the world isn't so crazy that diplomats always fail. Example: I can predict that country X is going to have military action Y, and it will be solved somehow by U.S. military action involving a dozen heroes or something. If I do this long enough, pretty soon the first part of the prediction will come true. But what about the solution? In Tom Clancy books, diplomats are usually ineffective (I'm reminded of the diplomat and traitor from "Debt of Honor" who blows it royally by leaking everything to his Japanese (there's another great old story to dredge up LOL!) counterpart). At best, they're like the honest cop who's been assigned a desk job for ticketing the chief's son: loyal Americans frustrated by the ineffectiveness of diplomacy.

More explanation:

If you're in the business of making money out of international misfortune, and you have friends in the military and intelligence services (Clancy's famous connections likely stem from the same cause that results in his works reading like promotional literature most of the time), you're probably bound to get some close hits and misses now and then. Nevermind that it was somebody else's analysis - back in '96 Clancy's novel Rainbow Six had the Russians as covert partners in an international anti-terrorism squad; in '02 or so Splinter Cell had the Georgians fighting the U.S. - Clancy just pumps out a ton of these.

The bigger question is what to make of it. Well, congratulations, Mr. Clancy; you predicted the news. Now where's that massive covert war? Oh, that's right - we use diplomacy, and only the crazy Russians think shock tactics will lead to a suitable relationship with its neighbors, tethered by fear.

On Georgia, Russia no doubt has come close to achieving some major foreign policy goals already (although as the negotiations wear on, it's not clear whether some of these will be rolled back, and might just enforce the status quo). The diplomatic side may end up rolling back some of their wins, and it's up to the Georgian people to decide whether to adopt a belly-up relationship with Russia. They may kick out President Saakashvili as impulsive and inept, but they aren't likely to want to cozy up to Russia. The Russians moved with surprising speed in this, but they have kept away from the brink of a larger war. This raises questions about whether Russia's latest threat, made towards Poland about the missile defense system, has more bluster than bite to it.

That is one of the truths of today's world - even for Russia, when you have "one foot" in the international community, you're reluctant to invite other nations to label you a pariah for the economy will suffer. This 'there must be a war every other year against TERROR and ROGUE NATIONS" idea has been tested for nearly seven years, and it hasn't done so well.

The international cooperative agency, another of Clancy's favorite ideas, has also fared badly. Georgia's abortive action against the separatists, and the Russian response (plus recent threats made against Poland) have given Western powers pause about inviting junior members into NATO. If Russia had attacked a NATO ally, the Cold War scenario, or the August 1914 scenario, would have been closer to playing out.


Interesting story.

Rainbow 6 is better though.
Rainbow 6 is a hilarious smear job against conservationists, but I give it a pass because there are doubtless eco-terrorists who would love to pull that plan off - too bad they're usually too inept to do it. There's always a core of truth in Tom Clancy's novels, but there's also a core of truth in Godzilla (i.e., dinosaurs once walked the earth; it doesn't mean they start blasting atomic rays at people).