economic crisis and new consoles

[mr obscure]

Will the economic crisis have effect on the next gen consoles?
In other words will it take longer now ,before we can play on a new xbox,playstastion or nintendo system?

[old_skoolin_jim]

I hope so, personally. This "new console every 5 years" thing doesn't make much sense. By the time a system's just starting to gain momentum, they cut support. It especially doesn't make much sense to rush this generation either, because honestly, games from here on out aren't going to be that visually superior.
If I don't have to buy a new system until 2012 I'll be a happy camper.

[heybtbm]

How much better can games really look at this point and not cost $200 million to make? You would think the big studios are already spending too much money developing games to keep up with the 360/PS3 tech. I think (behind the scenes) they're telling MS and Sony to slow down.

But..yes. The gloomy economic conditions are certainly adding to the 360's and PS3's longevity.

[Enigmus]

If you ask me, here's how it should be: keep it from 6-20 years, and then put a new one in, but don't leave it in the markets too long, or it'll pull an Atari 2600 (The 85-92 years, I mean).

[iloveguns]

i wish they focus more on releasing games on current console rather than developing consoles that are crap when released..

[BydoEmpire]

I think this gen will be a little longer anyways, regardless of the economic situation, due to the huge cost of developing the consoles and software. Neither 1st nor 3rd parties are going to want to rush into the next gen. Thank God. Last gen was over way too fast.

[Mr Mort]

I agree that I'd like the lifespan of our consoles to increase by at least 2-3 years if not more. I can say for sure that this is the last time I own all the major consoles of any particular generation. Next time around, I'm only picking one console, and that's it. Not only is this hobby becoming increasingly more expensive, I grow more and more particular as I age. It takes more than it used to in order to impress me these days, and I'm perfectly fine with what I've got right now, and I'd like more time to savor it, instead of having it go out of style quickly.

[chrisbid]

sony and ms are either not pulling a profit from video games, or pulling such meager profits that there is not enough money to put into the R&D for next gen systems. the economic slowdown/recession/depression will only make this problem worse

[kupomogli]

PS2 is still going strong. Sony and Microsoft can probably take a hint.

I'd say Microsoft should develop a new 360 with Blu Ray just so we could have a single disc per game. Probably won't, but should. If they released DVD and Blu Ray versions also, that way for those who have the original 360 could purchase the regular while those that have a new one could purchase the Blu Ray version.

In my opinion though. Sony wasn't off when they were talking about their 10 year plan. I'm sure the PS3 will last that long.

[otaku]

If I were them I'd hold off certainly. They should work on making the consoles cheaper and making games worry about new consoles when the economy picks back up and there is actually a demand for new consoles

[Chadt74]

Two major items that have not been mentioned are the ability to upgrade the current gen consoles and the network effect. Past basically required a new system to add some of the features we are seeing now with either updated code on a major release (Nintendo) or the ability to fix bugs/add features with software. This should help keep the current systems 'fresh' longer than past systems. Also with the network effect which of course helps keep the system updated also will help Sony and MS extract extra revenue from games for add ons and DLC. Also MS and Sony will be able to tell how acitve the systems are compared to previous systems (maybe the xbox could as Live was very popular). Also as one previous poster noted I don't see this next console going from 1080p tp 2016p or anything.

More than ever game consoles are becoming a platform for revenue streams and the bigger the company the less likely they are to take chances and a new platform is a risk. I would think that we see generations become longer because of the flexable hardware and increased ability to generate revenue from a system that will encourage the producer to stick with that console instead of bring out a new one.

[Trebuken]

Originally I heard hints of a Wii2 and an Xbox720 in 2010, but recently the talk seems to be for 2011. I did get a hint from a magazine about a potential Wii 'upgrade' (32x?), but that is all I have heard.

I think R&D continues at MS, Sony, and Nintendo. I do not think this is a part of the business that gets cut. They all expect the economy to return and they need to be on top of this. I have heard that similar tech companies are not cutting R&D for fear of falling behind competitively.

We need a new Xbox, with Blu-ray, 2010 makes sense but financially I can see it waiting until 2011. If the PS3 does not gain competitively they may move up the release of a next gen system, but who knows.

The Wii just bothers me. It was a generation behind when released and seems to be releasing very few games of consequence; it's like the N64 in the quality of its games and supprt but with the addition of the Wii mote novelty and a gimmicky ad campaign. It's not a complete wash, but it's just not cutting it for me...

[Diosoth]

I rememebr when people were buying Wii consoles to resell for $300 and making a profit. Right now, the local used game store has a used Wii for $190 and no one will touch it. The economy is already affecting purchases, not to mention existing console saturation.

But honestly, what would a new gen of consoles offer? Graphics that are maybe 5% better? I think we've hit a technical limit already and any advancements are going to be minor.

[Draven]

Personally I hope it does have an effect. I just got a Wii last week and I hate to think that they're already in development for something new.

[swlovinist]

I see most consoles staying around longer, but in redesigned form. I see others being replaced faster. While I typically would say that Sony supports their systems for the long haul, I dont know if that would happen with the PS3. Unlike the previous two systems, the console has had a luke warm reception from the public. A possible complete redesign or major price drop might help this out. Also, I see the 360 getting replaced right on schedule, another year or two and MS will be rolling out the next system. Hopefully this time, they can support the 360 longer than the Xbox(possibly supporting two systems). The next "Wii HD" will essentially probably be an upgraded Wii that has HDMI and DVD support, a hard drive, and built in motion control. I think that the current Wii can keep chugging along if it can get some better games. It has the fanbase and sales to keep doing what it has been doing for some time still.

With portables, the DSi will probably roll another two to three years easy, and the PSP will be replaced within a year with the "PSP 2" I predict.

Ironically I see the PS2 on store shelves for another two years. What an amazing lifespan of a console.

[rpepper9]

PS2 is still going strong. Sony and Microsoft can probably take a hint.

I'd say Microsoft should develop a new 360 with Blu Ray just so we could have a single disc per game. Probably won't, but should. If they released DVD and Blu Ray versions also, that way for those who have the original 360 could purchase the regular while those that have a new one could purchase the Blu Ray version.

In my opinion though. Sony wasn't off when they were talking about their 10 year plan. I'm sure the PS3 will last that long.

360 Blueray sounds like a good idea on paper, however game developers will always pander to the least common denominator, which means why develop Blue-Ray games, when not everyone has that ability? Why then take the time and the development cost to take a finished product and size it down? They would develop it in the format that they know everyone can use and leave it at that.

I think the perfect example was the HD DVD add on. No games were produced for it, it was only used to watch movies. No developers were going to make a game on a add on that was in less than a 3rd of all households.

[JunkTheMagicDragon]

imo, if the economy were better, ms would love to launch a new xbox sooner rather than later. doing so soon would force sony to release a ps4 to compete, further deteriorating sony's financial position and eroding profits from a cheapening and more popular ps3.

that said, we're in the real world, and there's a lot less people out there willing to fork out $400 for another console than there were 4 years ago. ms will still want to get it's product to devs first, but i still don't see it until 2011 at the earliest. in the meantime, they can still pressure sony with price drops. a $150 arcade and $250 premium would be tough competition for the ps2 and ps3, respectively.

i think sony is happier the longer this gen lasts. getting the ps3 to profitability has been a long road, so a few extra years of spotlight for the ps3 is great for them, plus it puts off having to subsidize new ps4 hardware until it's more affordable for the company. my bet's on 2012.

the wiihd (hehe) is the wildcard. judging by what nintendo's been doing with the dsi, i see incremental changes... actual supprt for hd, integrated motionplus, dvd playback, improved online services. nothing major, but enough to make the throngs happily fork over another $250. normally i'd bet this one to be out next year (its age is showing), but with them still selling over 500k a month, there's nobody lighting a fire under ninty to spit out an upgrade. and a cut to $199 would solve any drop in demand. my magic 8-ball says 2011.

[mnbren05]

I say the new console if they produce one in the next 5 years will merely be a shell of a console we know now. Compact media centers that allow web browsing, tv, phone, media, etc are the next big ideal. Microsofts original intention when jumping into gaming was to create a console of this sort. I also believe physical disc based game will probably become rarer and rarer as the new decade goes on. To cut costs we will unfortunately get digital copies. How can one trade in a digital copy of a game, or burn a digital game, or such. The answer is we cannot and it is going to be a sad day when the disc dies.

[Diosoth]

To cut costs we will unfortunately get digital copies. How can one trade in a digital copy of a game, or burn a digital game, or such. The answer is we cannot and it is going to be a sad day when the disc dies.

This is what game companies want. They see used sales in the same light as piracy, because the idea of people doing as they please with goods they purchase is just so EVIL to these companies.

[Draven]

I say the new console if they produce one in the next 5 years will merely be a shell of a console we know now. Compact media centers that allow web browsing, tv, phone, media, etc are the next big ideal. Microsofts original intention when jumping into gaming was to create a console of this sort. I also believe physical disc based game will probably become rarer and rarer as the new decade goes on. To cut costs we will unfortunately get digital copies. How can one trade in a digital copy of a game, or burn a digital game, or such. The answer is we cannot and it is going to be a sad day when the disc dies.

This makes the most sense to me. It's all about the Benjamins. I can see purchasing some type of download code at Wal-Mart to get a new game. It would save money for developers (no production costs) and if it could be controlled by not allowing piracy I think they would do it. The only problem is the lack of high-speed in some areas.

[Diosoth]

This makes the most sense to me. It's all about the Benjamins. I can see purchasing some type of download code at Wal-Mart to get a new game. It would save money for developers (no production costs) and if it could be controlled by not allowing piracy I think they would do it. The only problem is the lack of high-speed in some areas.

This won't stop piracy. Nothing they have tried so far has been effective because everything gets cracked. And, oh, how lovely DRM has been... restricting the rights of the consumer to even use their purchased copies, while doing nothing whatsoever to stop piracy- probably increasing it, because even paying customers still play pirate copies to avoid the DRM.

I buy something, I should have the right to resell it if I see fit. CDs, DVDs, video games, trinkets, whatever.

And this will have a HUGE impact on old games, pracitically making titles unavailable after a few years. But even Nintendo's Reggie recently said he doesn't want people playing old games, just the new ones currently for sale.

Why do I pirate and buy used games? Because most of these developers have a god complex and don't act like they deserve my money. Maybe if they could make better games, instead of overhyped, overpriced games that last 4 hours, then they might make more money. People are selling their used copies so fast because games are losing replay value, and a game someone just spent $60 for is now useless a week later.

[JunkTheMagicDragon]

all-digital game catalogs won't be a reality for years to come, for much the same reason on-live won't work. the broadband infrastructure just isn't there. some of you may live in 20mb, no-gb-limit-land, but most people don't. large areas of the country still don't have any sort of affordable broadband. the current system works only b/c existing services only offer relatively small games. imagine the mess when 5 million people all try to dl 100gb of 'space marine epic 7' on launch day. file sizes will only get larger. 'space marine epic 8' might be on a 500gb holo-cube.8-)

my point is that i think dl services will continue to grow, and will eventually offer full aaa games along with their retail counterparts for those with the bandwidth (if not the 8th gen, then the 9th), but i don't believe that retail will be replaced anytime within the next 2 gens.

[jahvybe]

The only problem is the lack of high-speed in some areas.

That is a huge problem. Replace "some" with "most". There is a huge part of the market that does not have access to high-speed internet (like me). There is no way that next gen systems won't still be using disc based media.

[Zap!]

If you ask me, here's how it should be: keep it from 6-20 years, and then put a new one in, but don't leave it in the markets too long, or it'll pull an Atari 2600 (The 85-92 years, I mean).

20 years? If that's the case, the Genesis would just now be getting an upgrade. :D

[DKTheArcadeRat]

DISCLAIMER: This is simply my opinion, not basis for fact or anything of the matter.

If it goes to digital, the question will have to be answered, how do they expect to really gain more game sales if there is only digital distribution. Most people that have a hard-drive on their 360 have a 20GB hard-drive, or so I would think. Now I realize they are now putting a 60GB drive with 360s, but still I would think most haven't upgraded to anything higher than the 20GB. Most highly active players have gone to 120GB by this point, or plan to.

Lets assume that the hard-drive installs are the size of all the data for any given game, so on average 5-6GB. They would only be able to store about 3-4 games at any given time, unless they could redownload the game after the purchase, but I can see people thinking that they have to keep it on there. If it was made that you can NOT redownload the game, people would in turn buy fewer games as most would not want to shell out the money for a bigger hard-drive, once again, due to economic problems.

I also feel that most people would prefer to have a physical copy of a game, more than they would like a digital, "imaginary", copy. For $60(or whatever the price) I want something in my hands.

[CosmicMonkey]

When game distribution goes totally digital I think they'll take HDD size into consideration. You won't be stuck with a piddly little 120GB drive, that'd be totally pointless. Even the next generation Xbox and PlayStation systems will come with huge HDDs as standard to take advantage of PSN/Live. Depending on how cheap SSD get over the next couple of years that could be an option, but we'll see 500GB of storage as standard next generation.

[Swamperon]

I fear the day when we only have digital distribution. But like people say, the infrastructure simply isn't there. Plus the average consumer is generally less inclined to go searching through page after page of digital games rather then search in a shop.

As for the next generation of consoles, I imagine Nintendo will be first. Either late 2011 (christmas season) or early 2012. Microsoft will be next, probably around the same time. By 2012, the 360 will be 7 years old! Then finally Sony, with the PS4 being radically different due to the PS3's relative failure. Also I'd wager that some form of motion control will be standard among all 3 consoles.

[MachineGex]

I hope the systems stay longer. It makes sense, lower cost for companies to produce games since they already have learned the system and how to program. Plus, now companies have learned all the programming tricks, time to push the system to it's limit and beyond. A lot of great games come out in the later part of a system's lifespan. I would rather play 3rd-4th generation games(on an "older" SYSTEM) than newer 1st generation games(on a brand new system). I would be happy with a 8-10 year lifespan.

Shit, I am still catching up on some great PS2 games. I am glad I can pick them up for $8 instead of $50. Also, the only way they will get every customer to fully support digital distribution is to make a new system that only has digital distribution.

[biggzy]

I fear the day when we only have digital distribution. But like people say, the infrastructure simply isn't there. Plus the average consumer is generally less inclined to go searching through page after page of digital games rather then search in a shop.


Very true. It's going to take a while before we have enough wide-spread broadband access that can keep up with whatever the file sizes are looking like at that point in time. Though the quality of graphics/sounds/immersion may not dramatically increase anytime soon, memory size might.

And I'd bet that most of MS and Sony's current customers (John Q) prefer something tangible for sixty bones. The majority of sales the major players have seen with digital distro is stuff in the five to ten dollar range, a step up from pocket change for most people (cigs cost 8 dollars now...many games are cheaper).

Plus, as others have mentioned, folks are surely going to raise hell about not being able to sell their games to their friends/ebay/gs/etc.

I'm sure, during the inevitable "transition period," I'll be one of the old-farts that's still buying the latest AAA game at a STORE, and the children will point and laugh.

[ShinobiMan]

I'm still waiting for the day everything reverts back to pixels on a screen trying to save a princess from some dragon, or monster, or Rosie O'Donell.

[kaedesdisciple]

Very true. It's going to take a while before we have enough wide-spread broadband access that can keep up with whatever the file sizes are looking like at that point in time. Though the quality of graphics/sounds/immersion may not dramatically increase anytime soon, memory size might.

And I'd bet that most of MS and Sony's current customers (John Q) prefer something tangible for sixty bones. The majority of sales the major players have seen with digital distro is stuff in the five to ten dollar range, a step up from pocket change for most people (cigs cost 8 dollars now...many games are cheaper).

Plus, as others have mentioned, folks are surely going to raise hell about not being able to sell their games to their friends/ebay/gs/etc.

I'm sure, during the inevitable "transition period," I'll be one of the old-farts that's still buying the latest AAA game at a STORE, and the children will point and laugh.

The companies will need to ween consumers off of the physical media. Give them incentives like:
*Drastically reduced price
*Release dates much earlier than the physical equivalent
*Some kind of bonus not found on disc
*Drastically increased HDD space

Basically, use marketing and small incentives to try and erase many of the negative connotations around digitial distribution and make it seem like a superior product to the physical alternative. As long as they do this conversion in line with how the broadband infrastructure of the world is built and keep those prices competitive, they shouldn't have THAT many issues.

I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying that's how it COULD work.

[biggzy]

Release dates much earlier than the physical equivalent

I think that one might do it alone. Even if it's the same price, people want it yesterday.

[kaedesdisciple]

::light bulb:: I've been thinking about the whole downloading thing the wrong way. Who says we need to have the ENTIRE package downloaded at the same time? To alleviate some of the servers' need to deliver an 8GB+ file to millions at the same time, why not break the downloads out by what people need as they play? The first time sure you'll have a download or "loading" screen as you approach a new section, but after that you have the section downloaded and don't need to do it again. It's not a complete solution I know but it could be the start of one.