Motion Control To Lengthen Console Hardware Cycles [Slashdot]

[DP ServBot]

With the recent E3 demonstrations of new motion-based control for consoles — Microsoft's Natal, Sony's Motion Controller, and Ubisoft's camera-based system for the Wii — analysts now expect the current console generation to last longer than normal. Microsoft exec Shane Kim said he expects the Xbox 360 to last until around 2015, in part due to Natal and new services available through Xbox Live. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald thinks this cycle may not need to end at all: "Microsoft and Sony have invested so much in their current hardware line, as have third party publishers, that we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch. For all of these reasons, we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely (if at all — if new services like OnLive take off, or if Xbox Live and PlayStation Network become more and more robust, there may not be a need for another console cycle).'"http://games.slashdot.org/slashdot-it.pl?from=rss&op=image&style=h0&sid=09/06/05/0818204 (http://games.slashdot.org/story/09/06/05/0818204/Motion-Control-To-Lengthen-Console-Hardware-Cycles?from=rss)
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[MrSparkle]

Wow i really hope the hardware cycle doesn't drag out that long.

[chrisbid]

the economy is the true reason the cycle will last longer, coming up with 10's or 100's of millions of dollars for R&D needed for a new generation of consoles just isnt in the cards anymore.

[Red Warrior]

I'm fine with it lasting longer. Seriously, how much more power do game consoles really NEED anyway (other than the Wii needing HD support)? There's plenty left in the tank to keep these plastic boxes churning out gaming goodness for years to come, imo. Plus, I'd rather not have to shell out $300 to $400 for a new 'box anytime soon.

[Icarus Moonsight]

It's a good thing.
http://purenintendo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/wiredmarthawii1.jpg

[Rob2600]

the economy is the true reason the cycle will last longer, coming up with 10's or 100's of millions of dollars for R&D needed for a new generation of consoles just isnt in the cards anymore.

What do you mean? The Big Three already started R&D on the upcoming generation of consoles several years ago.

[chrisbid]

What do you mean? The Big Three already started R&D on the upcoming generation of consoles several years ago.

R&D was started on the Phantom as well. its not where you start, its where you end up.

PS3/PSP sales are flat and MS is shelling out millions to fix damn near every 360 that has rolled off the assembly line. this means less money for R&D

On top of that, the law of diminished returns has hit the wall, there isnt much left graphically to improve. It is gonig to have to be about the games finally. the question is can gamers collectively maintain interest in a gaming platform for more than five years? they havent had to for the past 30 years.

[The 1 2 P]

Well this just makes me feel that much better about my investment in my 360 and Wii. It also means that hopefully the PS3 will hit a price point low enough where I can pick it up before this generation is over.

[parallaxscroll]

Highend PCs as of 2008 already offer 10+ times the graphics performance of Xbox 360 & PS3 (thus at least 100 times the performance of Wii) and that gulf is only going to widen in 2009, 2010 and beyond.

By no later than fall 2012, I would like to see new consoles from all 3 console providers, and not just modest upgrades of the current consoles, but a complete generational leap in CPU/processing, GPU/graphics, RAM, mass storage, control schemes and online.

[Rob2600]

By no later than fall 2012, I would like to see new consoles from all 3 console providers, and not just modest upgrades of the current consoles, but a complete generational leap in CPU/processing, GPU/graphics, RAM, mass storage, control schemes and online.

Then why not just buy a new computer?

[CosmicMonkey]

I really do hope this generation lasts for a few more years yet. The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 haven't even nearly been pushed to their maximum potential. The HD 1080p output from these machines is absolutely incredible on a decent sized LCD, there's really no need to upgrade for quite a while yet.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

I'd love it if the cycle takes its time, I'm not ready to buy another console yet.

[Rob2600]

I really do hope this generation lasts for a few more years yet. The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 haven't even nearly been pushed to their maximum potential.

The PS3 and Wii have only been out for two-and-a-half years. Of course they'll be around for a few more years.

[Bojay1997]

R&D was started on the Phantom as well. its not where you start, its where you end up.

PS3/PSP sales are flat and MS is shelling out millions to fix damn near every 360 that has rolled off the assembly line. this means less money for R&D

On top of that, the law of diminished returns has hit the wall, there isnt much left graphically to improve. It is gonig to have to be about the games finally. the question is can gamers collectively maintain interest in a gaming platform for more than five years? they havent had to for the past 30 years.

Exactly, there's a difference between a few million dollars a year on some chip designers, software people and industrial design staff to come up with potential new console designs and actually spending the hundreds of millions of dollars it takes to get a new console ready to go out the door in the two years before launch. In this cycle, that two year lead up hasn't really started yet primarily because of the economy and the fact that Microsoft and Sony still aren't making the money they need to off the current generation hardware and software. While motion control might even the hardware sales race out a little, I doubt it's going to extend the life of any of the three consoles. In fact, Nintendo may actually be the first to launch a new console this time if the sales numbers keep decreasing as they have now pretty fully saturated the potential Wii market.

[Malon_Forever]

I wouldn't mind either situation of new hardware, or a longer generation. I'd be excited to see new hardware, but there's nothing wrong with what I got hooked up right now. I just want to sit back and watch.

[Press_Start]

By no later than fall 2012, I would like to see new consoles from all 3 console providers, and not just modest upgrades of the current consoles, but a complete generational leap in CPU/processing, GPU/graphics, RAM, mass storage, control schemes and online.

Can you imagine how much such as a beast will cost? The PS3 is already costing Sony $800 a pop and to process great improvements on it breaks the bank. Let alone the increases in production cost in time and money to program for it are astronomical.

The writing is on the wall, IMO, motion sensory is here to stay. Developers reluctant in embracing it before will have a hard time avoiding it now. It's arguable whether the concept will extend the current consoles' lifespan but if the new generation comes 2-3 years from now, most likely all three have motion sensory as a standard with slight advancement in graphics.

[cessnaace]

On top of that, the law of diminished returns has hit the wall, there isnt much left graphically to improve. It is gonig to have to be about the games finally. the question is can gamers collectively maintain interest in a gaming platform for more than five years? they havent had to for the past 30 years.

Well, the PS1 lasted 10 years, and we are at about the 10 years mark for the PS2. Sony announced at E3 that they would be publishing 100 games for the PS2 this year.

Blast Entertainment alone published (and publishes) an enourmous amount of games for the PS2, of course they're in the UK, so their stuff is PAL. What footage I've seen on YouTube for their PS2 games THUNDERBIRDS and BEVERELY HILLS COP look more like early PS1 games. They could use another 10 years or so to get the hang of the PS2. LOL

[j_factor]

We don't even know how much Microsoft and Sony's motion controllers will cost, nor have we seen any actual games using them. So we certainly don't know how widely they will be adopted. They would have to do extremely well in order to have a significant impact. If they sell about as well as the Eyetoy (which did reasonably), they're not going to do anything for the consoles' life spans.

All three console manufacturers still have good reason to come out with a new console in 2011ish. Nintendo is obvious, due to graphics. But graphics aren't necessarily the only change with a new console. The current consoles offer more of a difference over last-gen than simply graphics. I mean, look at the Wii. It's not much more capable than the Gamecube, but a lot of other things are different about it, and it's been a huge success, unlike its predecessor. Assuming the PS3 stays consistently in third, a new console generation is, from Sony's perspective, the only realistic way to get back on top. As for Microsoft, their new console could be more reliable, they could move on from DVD to a larger format, they could make hard drives standard again, and they could bring in features that other consoles already have, such as built-in wi-fi ability. Both Sony and Microsoft could make their new motion controllers (or something similar) standard, instead of having a split market, and Nintendo could integrate the Motion Plus technology into their new controller and maybe add a microphone or something.

[swlovinist]

Wheter we have motion controllers or not, More companies need to embrase longer console cycles. The playsation and PS2 are great examples of how to do it right. With longer cycles, you get more hardware revisions, a bigger user base, and the more games. It is win win for gamers. I am all for it.

[Rev. Link]

I'm pretty happy to hear the current generation may last longer than expected. The 360 and Wii are going strong, and I'm only just getting to the point where I'm seriously considering a PS3.

One line from that article did scare me a bit, though:


there may not be a need for another console cycle

[josekortez]

Thank God. I don't care about motion control, but I barely have money to buy games for the 360, so this should be a good thing.

[smork]

I can't believe anyone really thinks we *need* a new console generation in the next few years. What exactly would you gain from this? What does a console need to do that it doesn't already?

Developers can already make any type of game they can conceive of with the current hardware. I think we're definitely approaching the top of the curve with hardware. Remember, it's just a means to an end, not the goal itself.

[optic_85]

These days it seems like there are so many good games coming out for 360, that I just don't have the time to play them all. Hell, I still haven't gotten around to Mass Effect. I'm perfectly content with this generation of consoles for at least 3 more years.

[scooterb23]

I seriously doubt I would even support a next cycle of consoles. So they better make this one stretch as long as they can.

[joshnickerson]

A 4-5 year console cycle is bullsh*t anyway. If the only advantage is "purdy grafix", then don't even bother.

[kupomogli]

I think a longer console generation is good. I don't think gamers want to put more money down on another set of systems just because they want the exclusives from each one etc.

I think Microsoft just needs to make a complete hardware revision that entirely fixes the problem with the 360 and not just small revisions they've been doing. If it means you'll be losing money on each 360 sold, then so what, you'll be saving yourself from having to fix another system which is almost guaranteed to break at this point. Microsoft has a larger userbase over the PS3, do they really want to take the chance with a new console and the fact that Sony might do better next gen?

The PS3 specifically needs the longer life cycle due to losing money on every system sale from the start. The fact that Sony alot of users may go to Microsoft because of the PS3s slow start may also hurt Sony, but the 70% hardware failures of the 360 may make people have second guesses.

Nintendo is the only one that really would profit from a new system. Since the Wii is actually selling well still then we probably won't see Nintendo's cheap tactics and completely drop support of the prior system and screwing the consumer over, which happened with the N64, GBA, and GC each after the release of the newer system. With the PS360 systems coming out with their own motion sensing type systems, what does the Wii have that the other systems don't have now except for the exclusives/Virtual Console/Wiiware? When the PS360 motion sensing actually finally gets a release, we're sure to see these Wii only titles that are from third party companies go to multiple systems with the Wii version being the most unpolished which is usual for multiconsole Wii titles.

I'd say Nintendo is the only one who needs a new system unless they want to still compete again the 360 and PS3 which will also have motion sensing and hardware that is actually next gen.

[Icarus Moonsight]

I think a longer console generation is good. I don't think gamers want to put more money down on another set of systems just because they want the exclusives from each one etc.

I think Microsoft just needs to make a complete hardware revision that entirely fixes the problem with the 360 and not just small revisions they've been doing. If it means you'll be losing money on each 360 sold, then so what, you'll be saving yourself from having to fix another system which is almost guaranteed to break at this point. Microsoft has a larger userbase over the PS3, do they really want to take the chance with a new console and the fact that Sony might do better next gen?

The PS3 specifically needs the longer life cycle due to losing money on every system sale from the start. The fact that Sony alot of users may go to Microsoft because of the PS3s slow start may also hurt Sony, but the 70% hardware failures of the 360 may make people have second guesses.

Yes....


Nintendo is the only one that really would profit from a new system. Since the Wii is actually selling well still then we probably won't see Nintendo's cheap tactics and completely drop support of the prior system and screwing the consumer over, which happened with the N64, GBA, and GC each after the release of the newer system. With the PS360 systems coming out with their own motion sensing type systems, what does the Wii have that the other systems don't have now except for the exclusives/Virtual Console/Wiiware? When the PS360 motion sensing actually finally gets a release, we're sure to see these Wii only titles that are from third party companies go to multiple systems with the Wii version being the most unpolished which is usual for multiconsole Wii titles.

I'd say Nintendo is the only one who needs a new system unless they want to still compete again the 360 and PS3 which will also have motion sensing and hardware that is actually next gen.

*facepalm* Alright, I officially give up on you

[The 1 2 P]

I will be very happy if this generation last until atleast 2012. Theres alot more that developers can do with the 360 and PS3. As far as trying to keep up with pc hardware, why does that matter anymore? Let the pc games be prettier. I enjoy my 360 graphics just fine the way they are.

[chicnstu]

I read an article earlier today, an interview with Iwata, that said Nintendo had thought of using cameras for Wii's controls but they finally decided that just having the remote with motion detection and the sensor bar seemed the most efficient to them. I agree.

-Microsoft's camera: Almost only "casual" games that can be made using it, it would need extra controllers that the camera can see for "traditional" games.

-Sony's camera seems more useful than Microsofts because it can do "casual" games (not as well as Natal) and "traditional" games.

-Nintendo's remote and sensor bar really does seem to be better overall than the cameras because it works almost as well as what Sony showed and for Nintendo and the buyers it will probably be cheaper than having to buy a Playstation Eye and the glow remote. Plus, the Wii Remote and Sensor Bar come with the Wii.

[The 1 2 P]

-Microsoft's camera: Almost only "casual" games that can be made using it, it would need extra controllers that the camera can see for "traditional" games.

The thing you seem to be forgetting is that project Natal is not going to be replacing the 360 controller, nor will Sony's new wand be replacing the Dual Shock 3. All these new camera controllers will be doing(in essence) is attempting to steal pieces of the casual gamer market that Nintendo has monopolized with the Wii.

We will still be playing the next Halo, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Gears/God of War with their respective 360 and PS3 stock controllers. That will never change;)

[chicnstu]

The thing you seem to be forgetting is that project Natal is not going to be replacing the 360 controller, nor will Sony's new wand be replacing the Dual Shock 3. All these new camera controllers will be doing(in essence) is attempting to steal pieces of the casual game market that Nintendo has monopolized with the Wii.

We will still be playing the next Halo, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Gears/God of War with their respective 360 and PS3 stock controllers. That will never change;)

For some reason I hadn't considered that. I kept thinking that Microsoft and Sony would try to slowly make the cameras their main control method. I guess it is possible it's just an extra thing to make money off of moms, young girls, and the elderly.