Current console adoption rate only now passing last cycle's, Pachter reports [Joystiq

[DP ServBot]

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Among the many fascinating (and not so fascinating) takeaways from Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's recent and massive industry report are revelations about the current console adoption rate. As much as the Wii has seemingly penetrated previously untapped demographics (see grandma's now defunct bridge club) and ostensibly raised console adoption rates to new highs, the current generation is practically dead even with the last one when comparing the two generation's first four calendar years on the market. That is, from 2005 (when Xbox 360 launched in late November) through 2008, the current generation of consoles (Wii, PS3 and 360) combined for approximately 78 million unit sales, according to Wedbush Morgan estimates. Comparatively, from 2000 (the year PS2 launched) through 2003, the previous generation (GameCube, PS2 and Xbox) combined for 78-79 million unit sales. However, in this pivotal fifth year, Wedbush Morgan predicts the current adoption rate will begin to pull ahead of the previous rate.Continue reading Current console adoption rate only now passing last cycle's, Pachter reports (http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/01/current-console-adoption-rate-only-now-passing-last-cycles-pac/)
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.joystiq.com/media/feedlogo.gif (http://www.joystiq.com)Current console adoption rate only now passing last cycle's, Pachter reports (http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/01/current-console-adoption-rate-only-now-passing-last-cycles-pac/) originally appeared on Joystiq (http://www.joystiq.com) on Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds (http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/).



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[chrisbid]

the only way adoption rates will increase in this economy is with massive price drops. current gen hardware is way more expensive than previous generation hardware at this point in the cycle.

using total hardware sales is a suspect method to gauge adoption rates. remove the wii from the toal numbers, and things look a bit more grim

[duffmanth]

The fact that the PS3 was $500-600 at launch and is still hovering around $400-500 and has sold well over 25 million units at those prices is still pretty impressive. The ONLY reason the Wii has done so well is because it's cheap. As far as I can see, I don't think it will be too long before the PS3 catches up to and surpasses the 360. There are probably so many people around the world sitting on the fence waiting for a PS3 price drop, that when it happens sales will explode. The thorn that is always going to be in the 360's side is that it will never do well in Japan no matter how cheap they make it, and that's one huge reason why I think the PS3 will catch up to it soon.

[Robocop2]

I think the Wii's success not only depends on the bargain basement price compared to the other two but also on the fact that the Wii caters to people who care very little about gaming in general. Casual gamers are more numerous than hardcore gamers and will not spend as much for a system but still want something fun. This is the Wii's strong point. Last cycles adoption rates are tainted by the PS2's ridiculously high sales rate imo.

[NoahsMyBro]

* I think the Dreamcast shouold have been included in the figures for last generation. Were its sales too low to matter?

* I think part of the Wii's success, in addition to the low price, is because playing games on the Wii is probably EASIER than the PS3 or Xbox360. I'll bet a lot of 50-year-olds and older are turned off by the multi-stick-and-button controllers from Sony or MS, but not nearly as intimidated by the Wiimote.