I predict carts are back next gen...

[Leo_A]

I'm sorry, but never? Blu-Ray will not be utilized on non-Sony gaming platforms (the licensing of a proprietary format will ensure that) and DVD is about ready to give up the ghost

There are no prohibitions from the Blu-ray Disc Association that would prevent the format from being used by Microsoft and Nintendo.

It's an independent organization from Sony with many different companies as partners besides just Sony. It's a misconception that Blu-Ray is a Sony product. There's no more barriers against it's use than there are for incorporating DVD technology.

In my opinion, the Xbox 360's successor will almost certainly have a Blu-ray drive. What Nintendo will do, I don't know and wouldn't want to venture a guess.

Edit - I should've read that last post before creating mine, I see this has already been covered.

[Ed Oscuro]

The common argument is something like this: Microsoft would hesitate in using BD-ROM because with that comes movie playback, which would mean coming into competition with the PS3 for movie playback, or cementing a technology in which Sony had invested a great deal, etc.

Not sure it holds water.

The cartridge format does offer some flexibility in DRM and anti-bootlegging solutions, maybe with on-chip or on-cartridge RAM for decrypting data tables without the actual gaming system's intervention - a CPS-2-esque solution. That could be expensive though.

Barring something like that, I'd say the idea that you can just reinvent DRM on a cartridge (when it still has to communicate with a base device whose characteristics are known to pirates) doesn't really convince me. It's still more flexible than discs though.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Alright bojay, here's the problems I have with all that.

A little consistency please. You talk about the expansion of optical media as the clear and certain future, then at a turn, mention that DVD game storage capacity is not currently being fully utilized. So, which is it? Either DVDs are on the way out or they're not. And if not, I don't see how a flash media option can be as detrimental to a profitable media delivery method as you claim. I can get 4GB HCSD media for $10 from a local store. Online, even less (excluding the cost of shipping). That's near equal to the normal DVD capacity of 4.8GB. And that's a retail cost ($10)... If you are mass producing these things in the hundred thousands to millions per release I'd be shocked if the production cost per unit was over $3 per. Also, by the time the next wave of systems come about, or Nintendo does some half-gen step Wii HD thingy (similar to the DSi), the possible capacity will surely have doubled at least for the same production cost making a cheap flash option at least just as capable in storage as a dual layer DVD. You also have to consider the bottlenecks of data transfer. Would flash media, piped directly into the data-bus have higher transfer speeds than optical disks? That's a near certainty. By the time of next gen systems and software, the biggest issue may very well not be the storage capacity of media, but it's data transfer through-put. If the form-factor of the flash media were exclusive to the system and employed some encryption software technology, that could make the higher cost vs optical methods a non-issue because of the piracy it could hamper. I don't think you can come up with something that would eliminate piracy completely, but you can make it such a bother than most wouldn't even attempt it. In that way, flash has the potential to actually be more cost effective than optical media. Safeguarding vs loss. The fairly durable nature vs optical disks would not be lost on consumers either. Oh, and the magic words for us gamers... GOODBYE LOAD TIMES! Now argue how that wouldn't be a sweet deal of awesomeness. LOL

Just to clarify, it is highly likely that DVD is giving up the ghost in the console realm after this gen. I didn't mean to imply movies or the recordable media etc. Besides, it's out of scope of this topic. And a license fee is a license fee. I don't think they care if the money goes to Sony or to an Eskimo tribe in Calcutta (absurdity, tee hee). The fact is, they're sacrificing control going with a license dependent media when they can just do their own and retain control and cash. One last thing. It's not a good idea to claim something will never happen. It's just as much fallacy to claim something will surely happen. Absolutes proving accurate are exceedingly rare when it comes to the guess work of speculation.

[Bojay1997]

Alright bojay, here's the problems I have with all that.

A little consistency please. You talk about the expansion of optical media as the clear and certain future, then at a turn, mention that DVD game storage capacity is not currently being fully utilized. So, which is it? Either DVDs are on the way out or they're not. And if not, I don't see how a flash media option can be as detrimental to a profitable media delivery method as you claim. I can get 4GB HCSD media for $10 from a local store. Online, even less (excluding the cost of shipping). That's near equal to the normal DVD capacity of 4.8GB. And that's a retail cost ($10)... If you are mass producing these things in the hundred thousands to millions per release I'd be shocked if the production cost per unit was over $3 per. Also, by the time the next wave of systems come about, or Nintendo does some half-gen step Wii HD thingy (similar to the DSi), the possible capacity will surely have doubled at least for the same production cost making a cheap flash option at least just as capable in storage as a dual layer DVD. You also have to consider the bottlenecks of data transfer. Would flash media, piped directly into the data-bus have higher transfer speeds than optical disks? That's a near certainty. By the time of next gen systems and software, the biggest issue may very well not be the storage capacity of media, but it's data transfer through-put. If the form-factor of the flash media were exclusive to the system and employed some encryption software technology, that could make the higher cost vs optical methods a non-issue because of the piracy it could hamper. I don't think you can come up with something that would eliminate piracy completely, but you can make it such a bother than most wouldn't even attempt it. In that way, flash has the potential to actually be more cost effective than optical media. Safeguarding vs loss. The fairly durable nature vs optical disks would not be lost on consumers either. Oh, and the magic words for us gamers... GOODBYE LOAD TIMES! Now argue how that wouldn't be a sweet deal of awesomeness. LOL

Just to clarify, it is highly likely that DVD is giving up the ghost in the console realm after this gen. I didn't mean to imply movies or the recordable media etc. Besides, it's out of scope of this topic. And a license fee is a license fee. I don't think they care if the money goes to Sony or to an Eskimo tribe in Calcutta (absurdity, tee hee). The fact is, they're sacrificing control going with a license dependent media when they can just do their own and retain control and cash. One last thing. It's not a good idea to claim something will never happen. It's just as much fallacy to claim something will surely happen. Absolutes proving accurate are exceedingly rare when it comes to the guess work of speculation.

The technology world isn't always about either/or decisions. Sometimes, a technology is good enough to last, even if there are better options out there. I believe Sony was a little early to the Blu Ray on the home console party, although much of it was an attempt to speed the adoption of Blu Ray. I do agree that the next batch of consoles will be Blu Ray based since it is now growing at a rate consistent with how DVD grew in the mid to late 90s.

I'm not arguing that there aren't advantages to non-disc based media. Clearly, not having a drive to break and discs to get scratched or damaged, as well as the speed of transfer and potential to put better encryption on software are strong advantages. Of course, console manufacturers interested in selling more consoles and drive manufacturers looking to sell more drives probably don't think of those as advantages. Having said that, you can get a blank dual layer 50 GB Blu Ray on the commercial replication side for a couple of bucks. Costs will continue to go down as demand increases and I still disagree that cards will ever beat the pricing on optical discs. It's just a lot more complex to build really dense cards and even though capacity will greatly increase over time, the unit cost probably will remain relatively fixed because the basic components are the same.

There is nothing wrong with making informed evaluations about the future and expressing those as an opinion. I've been around long enough to understand trends and I have yet to be wrong in a format war or other decision point in my personal technology purchases. The whole concept behind this thread was a prediction that carts were coming back in the next generation without any support whatsoever other than the OP thought they were cool. The chances of that happening in light of the past and present is pretty close to zero. As such, I have no problem reaching the conclusion that it won't be happening and expressing that opinion.

[DonMarco]

I don't see what the big deal of the Bu Ray is. Yes, it holds more data, but if 99% of all 360 games can fit on a DVD, how much free space is on the Blu Ray discs? Wouldn't the PS3 versions be almost identical in size? I don't remember any game being longer, or have more videos, or offer more content on the PS3 compared to the 360.

Claiming the DVD will be dropped next cycle is premature. The PS2 used CD-ROMs for several launch titles and well in to the life of the system.

Even if more space on the disc was needed, I'd be happy with the next 360 using a HD-DVD drive, or something similar. New name ("HDVD, XDVD, DVD") to shake off . The licensing fees couldn't be that bad and it's not like the technology is horribly outdated. Sure they wouldn't be able to play Blu Ray movies, but neither does the current 360.

HD-DVDs and regular DVDs for the next Xbox! Anyone with me on that?

[crom]

i will be pretty upset if 2-3 years from now im still waiting at a loading screen for a dvd in my xbox720

up untill this generation there was no viable alternative to dvd's and blurays...

but now there is...

make it so...

[Leo_A]

As has been clearly communicated to you by a dozen people, your desires aren't viable and aren't going to happen. Be prepared to be disappointed.

[CDiablo]

I don't see what the big deal of the Bu Ray is. Yes, it holds more data, but if 99% of all 360 games can fit on a DVD, how much free space is on the Blu Ray discs? Wouldn't the PS3 versions be almost identical in size? I don't remember any game being longer, or have more videos, or offer more content on the PS3 compared to the 360.


The majority of the data is due to 7.1 uncompressed sound and 1080p video for cutscenes(most of which are being done real time so this is a non issue.) Also a lot of data is on the disk multiple times to reduce access times of the system.

A lot of 1st/2nd PS game devs will say this is only possible on blu ray, which is true, but it does not mean it cant be done on XBOX in some manner.

[Kid Ice]

As has been clearly communicated to you by a dozen people, your desires aren't viable and aren't going to happen. Be prepared to be disappointed.



nope.


No way. Cheapest format is discs right now, nobody will ever go back to carts again, unless it's a handheld.


No .


You said it brother.


Um....no. Not unless Neo Geo comes out with a new arcade console system.


Has anyone said "no" yet?


Yeah watch it crom, there's a real brain trust siding against you with a ton of facts on their side. Clearly, it is totally impossible that Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft will use anything resembling cart-based media in the future. Anyone who entertains that possibility is a fool.

[Sonicwolf]

And now the discussion is PlayStation 3 versus XBOX 360.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Yeah watch it crom, there's a real brain trust siding against you with a ton of facts on their side. Clearly, it is totally impossible that Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft will use anything resembling cart-based media in the future. Anyone who entertains that possibility is a fool.

I could have gone into why I thought this was the case, but most had already argued my sentiments.

Also fuck off with your braintrust comments. I never called anyone a fool. How is a post insulting the intellect of other members constructive? Way to make it personal, I had respect for you.

[Kid Ice]

Has anyone said "no" yet?


How is a post insulting the intellect of other members constructive?

Given your rather flip initial response, I might ask you the same question. If others had already said the same thing, why post in the first place.

If you have lost respect for me maybe you should take a look at your own posting history....from what I've observed you're part of the banana convention that chimes in with sarcasm when someone asks a simple, direct question that somehow isn't up to the lofty intellectual standards of idiot video gamers. At least I KNOW I'm one of the idiots.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Given your rather flip initial response, I might ask you the same question. If others had already said the same thing, why post in the first place.

If you have lost respect for me maybe you should take a look at your own posting history....from what I've observed you're part of the banana convention that chimes in with sarcasm when someone asks a simple, direct question that somehow isn't up to the lofty standards of idiot video gamers. At least I KNOW I'm one of the idiots.


Why don't you take a look at my post history and you'll see along with the sarcasm you'll find a lot of contribution. Take a look at the threads I've posted in today, for example.

But it's really a waste of time trying to argue my validity to a guy on the internet whose already convinced I'm part of the "banana convention." I'll carry on with my knuckle dragging and cretin sarcasm, and you can ride your spotless post history into the sunset. For someone whose just one of the "idiots," there sure are a lot of veiled insults on intelligence in your last two posts.

[Sonicwolf]

Why the hell is it that when people start arguing here, all they can do is comb through the opponents post history and slam them for whatever they find unsatisfactory quality posts?

[crom]

I say, hooray...so when it happens I can say I told you so...

[Icarus Moonsight]

C'mon, you have to know. It's easy. As in, easier than arguing a valid premise through to a sound conclusion. Here and now please folks, here and now.

Bojay, ok man. Hang your hat on a absolutist guesstimate if you want. Just don't gripe when you wind up picking your hat off the floor. Sony, MS and Ninty all using Blu-Ray... I have to hand it to you, you are a bold one. :)

[Kid Ice]

Why don't you take a look at my post history and you'll see along with the sarcasm you'll find a lot of contribution.

I have and at the risk of dragging this out further I agree.

[monkeychemist]

Why the hell is it that when people start arguing here, all they can do is comb through the opponents post history and slam them for whatever they find unsatisfactory quality posts?

it's just like politics. You can't win an argument, so you dig up dirt.

On topic, I would like to say that I would love for carts to come back. I'm sick of this generation of shitty discs that can scratch from just looking at them...not to mention ridiculous installs and load times.

[megasdkirby]

considering that sd cards can hold up 64 gigs of space... (more than blueray) these days...



Although I prefer carts over CD media, unless 64GB SD cards go really dirt cheap (like $10 or less), I don't see it happening.

Yes, 64GB SD cards will reach that price sooner or later, but it has to be sooner than later in order to go back to carts.

But I agree that this could be a possibility, specially with products like SSD's.

[RPG_Fanatic]

I would have to say no. Disc's and download only. With the big 3 trying to push the download side more.

[portnoyd]

you're part of the banana convention

I'm going to start using that in daily conversation from now on. I love it.

[Frankie_Says_Relax]

I still think the notion that moving forward after anywhere between 5-10 years of success, profit and and growth of low-to-zero-overhead DLC "shops/markets" across all three current consoles and both handhelds that Sony, Microsoft and/or Nintendo are going to be overly concerned with the physical media delivery system in their next console is a bit of a silly one.

I think the more pertinent questions are: how much internal storage are these units going to have, will the expandable storage space be proprietary (ala 360 HDDs) and how cheap will it be?

Nintendo did everybody a solid by allowing VC software and WiiWare to be boot-able from the SD card slot. Hopefully that proved to increase sales enough for them to see the value in the "geeks and otaku" who want and need that extra space.

Microsoft seems very happy over-charging consumers for small amounts of proprietary storage media. Yes, you can get a terabyte of HDD space at your local computer store for less than $100. You want a measly 120 gigs of 360 HDD space? $150. Do the math per gig and I guarantee you'll feel dirty if you paid as much for a 360 HDD.

Sony seems to be the most actively prepared for dealing with internal storage concerns. High HDD sizes included, non-proprietary formats, no software size limits for developers, non proprietary external cards and drives recognized and usable for backups/transfers.

With both the PS3 and the 360 offering full game retail releases on their respective online stores ... it seems like baby-steps towards physical media (DVDs/Cartridges) quickly becoming the after-thought that they are on PC gaming, music playback devices or even (on-demand) movie delivery services.

And no, I still don't think that physical media will go away completely in the next few console cycles, it'll just become less and less important/pivotal to profit/success as it is now ... and frankly I don't think it is THAT important presently. I mean there's nothing that the Blu-Ray version of Burnout Paradise does that the DLC version doesn't ... except maybe have slightly longer load times.

No media format hangs around forever ... and while SD cards (or similar cartridges) maybe a logical alternative to DVDs or Blu-Rays, I still don't think they'll be the full-on retail successors.

[monkeychemist]

I saw an article once (i think popular science mag) talking about this new system that uses big super fast computer servers to store and operate games. We just buy a client for dirt cheap and play. Maybe that's the next thing as opposed to DVDs, carts or downloaded games...

[phantomfriar]

Digital download is going to be the way to go -- mainly because it will kill the secondary market, which is one thing I think all the major players want to do. Once you download the game it's yours and that's the end of it. You're not going to be getting back a cent on what you paid for it, which will finish off the concept of used games.

As much as I don't want that to happen, sadly I think that's where it's going for physical media -- even if it's a long way off.

[monkeychemist]

Digital download is going to be the way to go -- mainly because it will kill the secondary market, which is one thing I think all the major players want to do. Once you download the game it's yours and that's the end of it. You're not going to be getting back a cent on what you paid for it, which will finish off the concept of used games.

As much as I don't want that to happen, sadly I think that's where it's going for physical media -- even if it's a long way off.

maybe to counter that people could sell loaded up consoles for used prices :)

[Icarus Moonsight]

I remember a time when the pundits and manufacturers were convinced that multi-media enabled consoles were the certain future... Well, just saying. We're always going to come back to convergence vs disruption in these matters. Strategically in the coming hardware market, optical augmented by more DLC is the converging path. Flash media delivery is an example of disruption... It don't have to be superior or equal to succeed. That's the beauty of disrupting the market. It does carry much higher risk as converging has one or two paths and disruption is fairly wide open by comparison, but risk = reward...

I'm a fan of disruption, that helps. :)

[Bojay1997]

I remember a time when the pundits and manufacturers were convinced that multi-media enabled consoles were the certain future... Well, just saying. We're always going to come back to convergence vs disruption in these matters. Strategically in the coming hardware market, optical augmented by more DLC is the converging path. Flash media delivery is an example of disruption... It don't have to be superior or equal to succeed. That's the beauty of disrupting the market. It does carry much higher risk as converging has one or two paths and disruption is fairly wide open by comparison, but risk = reward...

I'm a fan of disruption, that helps. :)

Yes, and it turns out they were right. All three major consoles are essentially multi-media convergence boxes with the PS3 and 360 taking the lead on providing video and music downloads, DVD or Blu Ray playback, as well as just about every other type of media you might use in your home entertainment. Admittedly, it took longer than the pundits thought if you think back to the claims surrounding the 3do or CD-i, but it's pretty clear that it did finally happen in this generation.

Your disruption theory is ridiculous. Flash media offers a very minimal benefit to the consumer, it costs a lot more and it offers little or no benefit to the manufacturer. As such, there is no reason to make the switch. You're not going to get consumers flocking to something just because it uses different storage without any real benefit (did they buy DAT or MiniDisc?) and certainly manufacturers aren't going to embrace something that will cost more to implement if there is no perception among the public that it has added value. Nintendo bucked the storage trend twice, with the N64 holding out to use carts an extra generation beyond the competition and the Gamecube using a custom disc format and in both cases, Nintendo still finished behind Sony which used very traditional storage. Simply put, consumers could care less about the storage medium being used as long as it is cheap and the system has good games.

I'm still very puzzled by how anyone can be arguing the cart side of this thing without even a single bit of evidence that any video game manufacturer is even thinking about it as an option. As just about everyone has pointed out, the next step is download only or streaming consoles with built-in storage thus preventing users from sharing games between consoles and preventing reselling. If you think it can't happen, all you need to do is take a look at the percentage of commercial music that is sold on iTunes or other sites versus what gets sold in physical media nowadays. As much as I hate the idea, it is very clear that video games will go in the same direction, especially since there is such a huge used market taking revenue from publishers which simply doesn't exist to the same degree in most other recorded media. You're also not going to get much pushback from consumers since publishers will just shave a few bucks off the MSRP (which will be easy to do with no pressing, printing, shipping and 30% retailer and distributor margin) making it appear as though downloading is a great value.

I'm fine with people saying they'd like to see carts or flash media become the console standard next generation, but that's very different than arguing as some people in this thread seem to be that it might actually happen.

[crom]

the xbox360 servers went down when michael jacksons thriller video was made available for download...

i still dont see digital distribution anytime soon...

[Icarus Moonsight]

Not a pick-a-post reply. More of I want you to know which thoughts I'm responding to.


Yes, and it turns out they were right.

They were half-right. Right and good idea, wrong time technologically. PS2 DVD playback was the first major success in theis case but, that was even limited to a single entertainment media outside of games. Half-right is dangerous in business... Because it also means half-wrong. They were off by a decade. Suffering loss for ten years does not put one in a position to say, ten years later, "See!? We were right!" That would make any investor laugh and piss off an investor of which these guys lost money for. When evolving tech makes a past failure a now success. It's more like, "Well, we were right, eventually." When your goal is to advance profit at market. The sooner is an insane view of reality. :eek 2:


Your disruption theory is ridiculous.If you look at it in your terms, yes I agree. My point: It's risky, but when you win you win big. You seemed to miss that by only focusing on disruption failures or at best mild successes.


I'm still very puzzled by how anyone can be arguing the cart side of this thing without even a single bit of evidence that any video game manufacturer is even thinking about it as an option.Maybe there is something better than flash media that's disruptive... And media delivery mediums is just one aspect of the whole picture. The point is, things are not set in stone yet. Until there are some announcements or other evidences of fact, everything is open. Is all that more possible... sure. Convergence is common. Disruption is rare, because of the risk involved. But, entities like Nintendo and the Blue Ocean tactic have paid off huge. I don't think disruptive strategies are going out of style anytime soon. Natal anyone?


I'm fine with people saying they'd like to see carts or flash media become the console standard next generation, but that's very different than arguing as some people in this thread seem to be that it might actually happen.Well, it might. It might be something else entirely. If all three go Blu-Ray and expand DL only... I'll eat my hat.

[Berserker]

I'd love for carts to make a comeback. They're more durable than optical media, and in all likelihood have a much longer lifespan, which would be an obvious win for collectors. However I imagine the costs would be prohibitive compared to optical media, which costs literally chump-change to mass produce.

This continually implied argument from crom that SD cards must be cheaper to produce than discs simply because they're physically smaller has no basis in reality. It costs more to shrink technology, not less. For proof just look at the MacBook Air, which costs considerably more than a regular MacBook with comparable or even better specs.

Companies might be entertaining the notion on some secondary level in their R&D departments or something, but I believe that their main sights are already set on digital distribution. It might not be their immediate next step, but it's the ultimate goal. To them it's like the Golden Ticket. No manufacturing costs, and complete control over what users do with what they purchase from you, since physical possession of software would be eliminated.

The question of "if" they're going to do this or not is no longer a question. Only "when". The moment it becomes feasible in terms of nationwide broadband availability is the point at which they'll be doing it.

[j_factor]

I don't think games will be on SD cards next gen, but maybe in a few generations. Where will we go after Blu-Ray? There is a successor optical disc format that's been developed, HVD. 1TB discs will be available in late 2016. I bet 1TB SD cards will be available long before that, and cheaper. Of course neither of them will be in a game console in 2016, but some years down the road... I could see the SD card remaining cheaper, because I don't see HVD catching on with the PC market or anything. Also, HVDs use a special dual-laser setup that will mean the drives won't be DVD or Blu-Ray compatible, and the disc's manufacturing process is completely different from traditional optical discs. SDXC is a more natural extension of an existing format, and I'm sure the readers are significantly cheaper than optical drives in general.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

May as well give my real answer.

Console games require more data space to play than a handheld. Modern games are continually getting larger in size. DVD is slowly becoming a format whose data capacity is no longer adequate for some games. I understand that the Wii doesn't seemed hampered by the problem during this current generation. But I see a point where Nintendo will need mature graphically, and match the visual fireworks of their competitors. HD requires a lot of space.

On every level optical media is still cheaper than any thumbdrive or SD card. Larger games will require over the standard DVD size of 8GBs, and as far as cost is concerned Blu-Ray is currently a cheaper format. Sony's already using it- and if Microsoft still continues to resist, it'll need to develop some sort of proprietary format to hold the games it'll need to compete. I don't see how its reasonable to assume any solely cart based console system would be cost effective compared to optical media.

Unless suddenly flash media becomes cheaper than optical, maybe I'll change my mind.

I recently bought a 8gb thumbdrive, and it cost about $20. How much does comparable DVD cost that holds the same amount of space? .25 cents? That's a pretty big gap.

As far as I can see optical media is going to be a cheaper route for console manufacturers than flash based media. I think it'd would be more likely for the next gen consoles to use Blu-ray than any large capacity cart. I don't necessarily think it'll happen, but it's possible.

Unless a newer cheaper media arises in the meantime, I say all the next gen consoles will go with an optical media over flash. All forms of optical media are cheaper in the foreseeable future. And Digital Distribution is still more distant that the next generation, as far as I can see too.

I wouldn't discount the idea Nintendo (or even Microsoft) would develop another proprietary optical media, like they did for the Gamecube on their next generation system.

If anyone does go back to anything resembling a cartridge, it's going to be further down the road. It's just not going to be practical in the next five years. While I do agree we are slowly approaching a crossroads in how video games will be delivered to us, I don't see any reason for the current methods to change at least for the next generation.

Anyway this has been pretty much already stated in most of the posts.


I say, hooray...so when it happens I can say I told you so...

Excellent reasons to propose a hypothesis. Bragging rights and gloating.

[portnoyd]

Excellent reasons to propose a hypothesis. Bragging rights and gloating.

Welcome to the Internet?

[Hep038]

I recently bought a 8gb thumbdrive, and it cost about $20. How much does comparable DVD cost that holds the same amount of space? .25 cents? That's a pretty big gap.

Agreed, I am still waiting for some of the Pro cart group to address this. I do not care how many you produce, if you made a flash drive with 1 meg of storage space it will still cost more than the price to make a DVD or blue ray disk. You just cannot get around the manufacturing cost of something that will have multiple components and assembly. Now I could see someone like Nintendo thumb their nose at Sony and Microsoft and do carts just to be different, but I do not think anyone would follow suit.

[Joe West]

carts cost to much to make...............never happen again..:rocker:

[portnoyd]

Agreed, I am still waiting for some of the Pro cart group to address this. I do not care how many you produce, if you made a flash drive with 1 meg of storage space it will still cost more than the price to make a DVD or blue ray disk. You just cannot get around the manufacturing cost of something that will have multiple components and assembly. Now I could see someone like Nintendo thumb their nose at Sony and Microsoft and do carts just to be different, but I do not think anyone would follow suit.

Don't discount the power of bulk.

[tom]

I really miss food vouchers

[Solertia]

I was actually thinking about this the other day. Seeing as how SD cards are getting bigger and bigger, I could definitely see them ousting optical media at some point. I can see large-capacity SD cards being cheap to mass produce happening in about 3 years, if that. So I think it can still be considered a possibility for the next generation.

Regardless, I'd love to see this happen. I'm tired of discs.

[DonMarco]

I recently bought a 8gb thumbdrive, and it cost about $20. How much does comparable DVD cost that holds the same amount of space? .25 cents? That's a pretty big gap.
Wait a sec, there. The actual cost of producing a 8 GB flash drive is no where near $20. If I can get one right now for $15 off newegg, after you subtract newegg's profit and the manufacturer's profit, the actual cost of the drive couldn't be more than $2. They build millions each week and ship them all over the world, among several companies that mass produce these things.

Lastly! That 8GB SD card cost twice as much last year. Two years ago it was $60. Three years ago it was almost a hundred dollars. So! Who's to say that in three years you won't even be able to find an 8GB SD card unless you look in camera store. On one of the lower shelves, and in a 3-pack. So while it's "expensive" now, who knows about the next-gen system a few years off?

[Icarus Moonsight]

Don't discount the power of bulk.

Bingo! If you can absorb the initial cost of setting up fabrication, the more you build the cheaper per unit. You only have to build factories once. Maintenance has a cost too, but it's minor vs erecting the production infrastructure initially. It's not economically impossible at all. It has pluses and minuses, sure. But so does Blu-Ray. The production cost of a flash media port is MUCH less. It's a balancing act. Spend a buck or two more per unit of media, but save tens of if not a hundred dollars per unit on hardware... There is much to consider.

[Bojay1997]

Bingo! If you can absorb the initial cost of setting up fabrication, the more you build the cheaper per unit. You only have to build factories once. Maintenance has a cost too, but it's minor vs erecting the production infrastructure initially. It's not economically impossible at all. It has pluses and minuses, sure. But so does Blu-Ray. The production cost of a flash media port is MUCH less. It's a balancing act. Spend a buck or two more per unit of media, but save tens of if not a hundred dollars per unit on hardware... There is much to consider.

Yes, but there is only so much the cost can be decreased and that cost will never be lower than disc media, simply because the infrastructure is already in place and it's just much, much harder to manufacture card media. Optical discs are a very simple and old technology. They are simply easier to manufacture and don't require the same tight tolerances that card media does.

Again, nobody is arguing that it's not possible or economically prohibitive to switch to non-disc media. What all of us have been saying (and it appears as though the pro-cart side could really care less and just wants to advocate without any real-world evidence) is that there is no reason for it to happen and no likelihood or evidence that it will happen. There is, however, tons of evidence that the manufacturers will stick with optical media for the next generation and try like crazy to ween everyone off physical media and into downloads only. With regard to consoles, flash media is a solution for which there is no problem. As such, it's just not going to be something the manufacturers of consoles adopt.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Yes, but there is only so much the cost can be decreased and that cost will never be lower than disc media, simply because the infrastructure is already in place and it's just much, much harder to manufacture card media. Optical discs are a very simple and old technology. They are simply easier to manufacture and don't require the same tight tolerances that card media does.

Again, nobody is arguing that it's not possible or economically prohibitive to switch to non-disc media. What all of us have been saying (and it appears as though the pro-cart side could really care less and just wants to advocate without any real-world evidence) is that there is no reason for it to happen and no likelihood or evidence that it will happen. There is, however, tons of evidence that the manufacturers will stick with optical media for the next generation and try like crazy to ween everyone off physical media and into downloads only. With regard to consoles, flash media is a solution for which there is no problem. As such, it's just not going to be something the manufacturers of consoles adopt.

Historical trend is not evidence. It's... well, trend. If we are discussing evidence, then we are not discussing speculation. This is speculation here, take it as you may. Consistency, yet again. And you have been arguing the case of economic prohibition... read your posts man. X_x

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Wait a sec, there. The actual cost of producing a 8 GB flash drive is no where near $20.

I understand all of this. I'm just looking at the price from a purely retail standpoint, which is what the consumer ends up paying anyway. I also understand how much prices have fallen, and how much they're going to fall. Even if the flash drive costs $2, and optical disc I'm sure costs pennies. A bottom line is a bottom line, and I'm thinking if a company is looking at manufacturing costs, $.10 a disc is more attractive than $2 a cart/SD card/whatever. Especially when running off large volumes. You also have to factor in the costs of replication and the machines that do it. If someone's going to make a cart, I'm sure that it's not going to be an off-the-shelf SD card with a game on it. Whereas when you use an optical format that's already popular, I'm sure the hardware is more readily availble and a lot cheaper.

And what about when games get 15gb 20gb... flash prices start to go up as well. Games may start outgrowing DVDs in the very near future... unless some new form of compression is invented.

Anyway, flash prices aside it seems the push is for video game consoles to become media centers as well. Since our current media (music, movies, etc.) is delivered via disc primarily. Why not save money and space by making your game the same format as say how you get your movies? Or at least use a drive that reads them.

Anyway it's sort of hitting a broken record at this point. The thing is, I believe that the odds are really stacked against carts for the next generation of consoles. I don't think it's as practical as the way it's currently being done, and there has been no word from the manufacturers that this is even being considered right now. I think the majority that have chimed in agree.

At this point it's just speculation.

[Bojay1997]

Historical trend is not evidence. It's... well, trend. If we are discussing evidence, then we are not discussing speculation. This is speculation here, take it as you may. Consistency, yet again. And you have been arguing the case of economic prohibition... read your posts man. X_x

Of course it is evidence. Unless someone has invented a time machine or actually can see into the future, historical trend is the only evidence that exists in the business world. Why do you think the whole basis of the MBA curriculum in this country is a case method? It's because people make decisions for the future firmly rooted in an analysis of trends from the past.

I have been arguing that there is no economic reason to switch to non-optical media and that it's more expensive. It's not impossible or economically so prohibitive that manufacturers couldn't do it if the public demanded it. Given that it's more expensive and always will be and offers little improvement over optical media, it's not going to happen. There simply is no consumer demand for it and no compelling reasons for manufacturers to adopt it.

Please provide us with any evidence that even a single console manufacturer has been talking about doing this or has patented this type of storage and I will be glad to concede that you might be on to something. Of course, you have no such evidence, so again, all you are doing is engaging in wishful thinking.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Speculation is not irrelevant just because it's not currently factual. Without healthy speculation there can be no innovation... Sure, none of us here are in a position to act on what is being discussed, but that does not invalidate anything.

Look, there is yesterday, now and tomorrow. You are saying ideas related to tomorrow are not valid if it's not consistent with today, and also attempt to validate your view of tomorrow with evidence of yesterday. You don't see the inconsistency?

In business no economic reason = economically impossible. Of course their are reasons, if you don't allow subjective values to factor into your calculus. Product has to be put to market before demand can be factually quantified.

[boatofcar]

There's a certain part of me that would like to see carts come back. But I want real carts, Neo-Geo or NES-size carts. Big honkin' things. If we're talking about SD cards, what's the point of having that over optical media? You're as likely to lose something that small as you are to scratch a disc.

[The Shawn]

Hell yeah!!!

Well...not really


*Me dusts off my Johnny Horton 8-tracks and waits for the end...

[Hep038]

Bingo! If you can absorb the initial cost of setting up fabrication, the more you build the cheaper per unit. You only have to build factories once. Maintenance has a cost too, but it's minor vs erecting the production infrastructure initially. It's not economically impossible at all. It has pluses and minuses, sure. But so does Blu-Ray. The production cost of a flash media port is MUCH less. It's a balancing act. Spend a buck or two more per unit of media, but save tens of if not a hundred dollars per unit on hardware... There is much to consider.


But if a company like San disk is not making $2 SD flash cards , how can a company like Nintendo do it? I agree that the system reliability and cost will go down, but if they switch to SD carts expect the price of games to jump. I am not arguing that SD carts are a bad idea, I am just saying their is a limit to how cheap you can make a SD cart. I just do not see it approaching the cost of DVD/Blue Ray.

[portnoyd]

I won't say there is no limit to how cheap they can make a SD card. However:

Video game sales were $11 billion for 2008. Let's be generous and say each title cost $50. That's 220 million games sold. So we're Nintendo. Based on current hardware sales with the Wii and DS, you have 60% of the gaming pie which would be 132 million games for your two systems a year. So let's assume we have that buying power going into the next generation and the Wii2 and DS2 will share the same media.

With numbers that high, not only would manufacturing costs be in the toilet, you'd also have to factor in the different flash memory manufacturers and how they'd be salivating at the thought of getting that contract. It's guarenteed volume for the life of the system. Even at one cent margin per card, they'd still end up with 1.32 million profit a year.

So Nintendo holds out for lowest bid wins and the price gets driven down further as each company pisses on the other to win the contract. The new volume would be a noticeable addition to market share as well as notoriety to the company itself. But none of this is even the main concern - when the winner announces that they have partnered with Nintendo, their stock will jump dramatically which is far more important than actually making the sale.

Keeping in mind that this is all fuzzy stats - I gleaned what I could from vgchartz.com and an article about 2008 game sales.

[Icarus Moonsight]

There is also the fact that it does not need to be as cheap as optical to be a more profitable avenue. Cost =/= value.

[j_factor]

Cost isn't the sole factor. I think if flash memory approaches (not necessarily bests) optical disc cost, it becomes very viable. I mean, back when we did have cartridge systems, there were cheaper formats available.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Ever get the feeling that you're repeating yourself over and over?
http://www.movieactors.com/freezes1/GroundhogDay40.jpeg
I'm done.

[jonnyutah]

this is the last gen we will use a physical medium. blu ray is on the way out.blu ray will die off just as cd's did. basicly the same thing that happend to the cd(digital download/mp3)

so basicly next gen you won't have to ever leave your couch to buy a new game.

[Buns34]

You could be right about downloads being huge in the future, but Blue-Ray is not going anywhere anytime soon.

[unwinddesign]

I don't see download being a threat in the next gen. Why? It sucks for consumers.

Do you see the bullshit they tried to put up on Xbox on Demand? $30 for Assassin's Creed? GTFO, Microsoft (http://cgi.ebay.com/Assassins-Creed-Used-for-the-Xbox-360_W0QQitemZ300339443686QQcmdZViewItemQQptZVideo_ Games_Games?hash=item45eda037e6&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14)

$30 for Bioshock? Um, no. (http://cgi.ebay.com/BioShock-Xbox-360-NEW-SEALED_W0QQitemZ380150286486QQcmdZViewItemQQptZVid eo_Games_Games?hash=item5882b90896&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14)

The prices aren't competitive. If they try to go download only, they will be blackballed y Amazon/Wal*Mart/Gamestop. Don't forget that the retail outlets do a lot of advertising for them too, with magazine ads etc. They will be pissed off if it goes download only. Download cards are a possibility, but why the fuck would I go to a store to get one of those when I can get the game from my couch?

The second problem is that a lot of these games, especially on PS3, are 10GB+. My connection was 15MBPS download -- pretty fast, not the fastest, but better than most -- and it took about 3 hours to download the Matrix in HD (6.3 gigs or so) over the XBL marketplace. The download stopped numerous times without my input. The process sucked.

Digital distribution is not there, because people like having shit. Even if they don't collect, they like to exchange their dollars for a tangible item. A $1 song doesn't really compare, mainly because no one ever gave a shit about the single's artwork. Album sales are down. People don't want virtual albums. I sure as fuck don't. I don't want virtual $60 games, either, and I won't buy them. If you don't like the game, too bad. You're fucked. I've downloaded 50 XBLA games; I had to stop buying them, because I would get duped by fun demos only to realize that the complete game sucked ass. Luckily, most of those are the price of a sandwich...

[udisi]

you forget all the other things that are sold by retailers that have a much better profit margin than the games themselves, like controllers, strategy guides, etc. Hell they could sell download cards, like they do for wii points and such. Just because them actual game media could leave the store doesn't mean everything that makes money would.

If the systems are cheaper to produce without optical drives, and they can make the machines smaller and lighter, they don't necessarily need to pass that on to the consumer. They could cut the retailer in for a bigger cut, making systems an actual money maker too.

The benefits for the console producers to go digital are far superior to any other option. While the SD card sounds intriguing and I believe viable, I don't see it's benefits out waying going digital.

Optical media is in fact the cheapest to produce and will remain that way, but the loss of sales to the used market and piracy, raise it's overall cost, and things will change to bring more say back to the producers.

SD would not solve the used game market problem for the producers, which is a big problem for them. It would help the piracy problem a little, but going digital would solve both problems.