How can you tell if something's going to be hard to find later?

[Jorpho]

I am growing increasingly alarmed at the swelling of my mountainous backlog of games. I don't think I can justify buying something anymore just because it's sort of cheap and might become hard to find later - especially since I have a pretty abysmal track record when it comes to that kind of thing.

So my question is, how can you tell if something's going to be hard to find and should be purchased now rather than later?

[kupomogli]

One thing to take into consideration is if it sells poorly. That's a good sign it'll probably be difficult to get at a low price later on.

[Oobgarm]

Limited Distribution is usually a good sign.

"Online Only" is usually a good indicator (Electroplankton for DS, for example), but there have been cases where online only has given way to actual retail (i.e. Korg DS Synthesizer)

Typically, Collector's Editions that are really over-the-top either in packaging or included goodies is worth a look at least. (Bioshock) Though, you'll have stinkers like Halo 3's Legendary Edition that you can't give away.

Some collector/limited editions that are plain become tough to locate later on, like Mass Effect, Call of Duty 4, and perhaps Resident Evil 4 Premium Edition on PS2.

Otherwise, it's tough. Given the saturation of gaming in the marketplace these days, there aren't many games that are "hard" to find anymore.

[Flashback2012]

Oobgarm is pretty spot on in his post about what to look for. 8-)

Obscure and off the beaten path is a formula that's worked for years, for me anyway. I don't claim to have a better eye than anyone else but I've gone after the quirky and niche for quite some time now and time has proven that the ones I did pick up have escalated in value. Granted, it's never 100% they do, I probably lucked out more times than not. Like Oobgarm says, market saturation has made it harder to gauge things. I know I've certainly been caught with my pants down on some titles being harder to find that I figured would not be. A good example of that would be Tetris DS. I figured being a Nintendo release, it would be a somewhat common site in stores...man, did I not read that one good enough. X_x

[TonyTheTiger]

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

On average, the vast majority of games plummet in price. I don't think I'd be too far off if I guessed a percentage well into the 90s. Out of the small percentage of games that don't plummet in price, the vast majority of them are "rare." I put it in quotes because they aren't really hard to find or expensive. They're just more expensive than their contemporaries. They still drop in price, just not as much. So a game that originally sold for $50 might stop declining once it hits $30. Expensive by comparison but still less expensive than it was. That's not really a big deal if you're worried about getting burned.

That means the number of games that actually increase in price (I'm assuming the games you're worried most about) is absurdly small. It was absurdly small multiple generations ago. And with the saturation of today's market, that number has only gone down.

I've been burned a few times a generation or two ago when I bypassed games I "could get later" only to eventually find them with $200 price tags. But the kicker is that the cost of paying that $200 on the off chance it does happen is actually far cheaper than taking the gamble that this game will go up in value or that game will and spend $50-$60 on new games that you otherwise could have waited to get for $20. If you spend an extra $30 out of fear that a game will vanish very quickly, then after doing that about 10 times you've already spent about as much money (if not more) on the sheer gamble than you would if you just waited and paid up for the two or three "money" games that might eek by when and if they happen. It's a sucker bet.

Atlus thrives on the dilemma you're facing. They embrace the situation where a potential consumer sees an individually numbered collector's edition of Devil Summoner 2 and thinks "Hey, that might become super rare. Better buy it now." I'm not saying the package isn't worth the $40 but just that people who bought it on the off chance it would become rare got a wake up call when it turns out there are well over 50,000 copies floating around. Not even Atlus games are the likely candidates for "money" games anymore. And with Games Quest Direct running around reprinting the "money" games, that changes things even more.

Though here's something that might help if you really want to figure out the possible rarities. Do a GameStop inventory search for a game. If you see a couple of pages worth of stores that have a copy, then it's common as dirt. If you see less than a full page worth of listings then it might still be common as dirt but has a better chance of being harder to find later on.

[Bojay1997]

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

On average, the vast majority of games plummet in price. I don't think I'd be too far off if I guessed a percentage well into the 90s. Out of the small percentage of games that don't plummet in price, the vast majority of them are "rare." I put it in quotes because they aren't really hard to find or expensive. They're just more expensive than their contemporaries. They still drop in price, just not as much. So a game that originally sold for $50 might stop declining once it hits $30. Expensive by comparison but still less expensive than it was. That's not really a big deal if you're worried about getting burned.

That means the number of games that actually increase in price (I'm assuming the games you're worried most about) is absurdly small. It was absurdly small multiple generations ago. And with the saturation of today's market, that number has only gone down.

I've been burned a few times a generation or two ago when I bypassed games I "could get later" only to eventually find them with $200 price tags. But the kicker is that the cost of paying that $200 on the off chance it does happen is actually far cheaper than taking the gamble that this game will go up in value or that game will and spend $50-$60 on new games that you otherwise could have waited to get for $20. If you spend an extra $30 out of fear that a game will vanish very quickly, then after doing that about 10 times you've already spent about as much money (if not more) on the sheer gamble than you would if you just waited and paid up for the two or three "money" games that might eek by when and if they happen. It's a sucker bet.

Atlus thrives on the dilemma you're facing. They embrace the situation where a potential consumer sees an individually numbered collector's edition of Devil Summoner 2 and thinks "Hey, that might become super rare. Better buy it now." I'm not saying the package isn't worth the $40 but just that people who bought it on the off chance it would become rare got a wake up call when it turns out there are well over 50,000 copies floating around. Not even Atlus games are the likely candidates for "money" games anymore. And with Games Quest Direct running around reprinting the "money" games, that changes things even more.

Strongly agree with everything stated here. The few games in this generation which will become hard to find down the road are really not worth the amount of money you might spend if you buy everything that could become hard to find now. It might mean spending a little more for those few games down the road, but you will literally save thousands of dollars when you can get most games for under $20 once the next generation of consoles rolls out.

[BetaWolf47]

Yeah, Atlus and formerly Working Designs thrived on this notion. Working Designs intentionally targeted collectors with their games. Look at the included holographic lettering, included stickers, and variable boxart.

But other than publishers intentionally limiting releases, there is no rule of thumb for difficulty to find. It's based on demand more than anything. A game can sell like crap and not have that many copies in circulation, but it's not going to be hard to find if nobody is looking for it. Otherwise, it could be a million seller and be difficult to find when it's based on a franchise with a rabbid fanbase (i.e. FF7 isn't really rare, but there's people out there who snatch up every copy they see).

Meh, I'm done babbling. I'm not really saying anything that isn't common knowledge.

[Jorpho]

Well, of course games are going to plummet in price - but nonetheless that doesn't mean they'll be easy to find, even at that lower price.

I've had my eye out for a copy of Metroid Prime 2 for a while now, for instance. Nothing's turned up here or at the local used game places. I suppose I could buy it on eBay, but the likelihood of getting burned by a bootleg or a scratched-up disc seems kind of likely.

[TonyTheTiger]

To hammer the point home, currently there is only one game on the Xbox 360 that I notice has not dropped in value and that's the Limited Edition of Tales of Vesperia (something I'm currently looking for). If I ran out today to buy up even three games just because they might become rare, I've probably already spent the same amount on those games (which are incredibly likely to eventually be worth dirt) that I could have invested in a copy of ToV: LE.

And with the internet and Ebay these days, pretty much everything will be at least obtainable. Even Panzer Dragoon Saga is on Ebay a lot and that game was printed in vastly fewer quantities than any game in this or last generation.

But if you're looking for anything this gen or last gen, just use GameStop's inventory search. It's not perfect but combined with making a couple of phone calls it's an invaluable resource.

[BetaWolf47]

Well, of course games are going to plummet in price - but nonetheless that doesn't mean they'll be easy to find, even at that lower price.

I've had my eye out for a copy of Metroid Prime 2 for a while now, for instance. Nothing's turned up here or at the local used game places. I suppose I could buy it on eBay, but the likelihood of getting burned by a bootleg or a scratched-up disc seems kind of likely.

That's very interesting... Metroid Prime 2 is extremely common CIB where I live.

By the way, is it possible to even make a bootleg Gamecube game? I know the games can be dumped to a PC, but...

[Swamperon]

Also games released towards the end of a console's lifespan tend to be rarer. Twilight Princess for the GC still tends to sell for it's initial retail price or higher, despite it being easily available on the Wii. I'm not sure if the last Xbox game goes for anything decent. Keep an eye on the PS2 as it surely must be in the last year or so of its' life.

[Tempest]

. Keep an eye on the PS2 as it surely must be in the last year or so of its' life.
They've been saying that for the last two years...

Tempest

[Jorpho]

But if you're looking for anything this gen or last gen, just use GameStop's inventory search. It's not perfect but combined with making a couple of phone calls it's an invaluable resource.Isn't GameSpot the incarnation of the Great Satan or something? (Anyway, we only have EBs here, and they're all practically depleted of GC games.)


By the way, is it possible to even make a bootleg Gamecube game? I know the games can be dumped to a PC, but...I just assumed. Surely it is so?

[BetaWolf47]

Isn't GameSpot the incarnation of the Great Satan or something? (Anyway, we only have EBs here, and they're all practically depleted of GC games.)

GameStop, not GameSpot. Huge difference here.


I just assumed. Surely it is so?
Well, tell me, how would it be done? As far as I know, writable 8 cm discs that can hold Gamecube games aren't available on the market. Even then, I think I heard something about Gamecube games using a unique writing method. There may be other ways to play backups, but I don't think bootleg Gamecube games exist.

[Jorpho]

GameStop, not GameSpot. Huge difference here.Gah. Typo. I meant GameStop. (I rather like GameSpot, even after the whole Gesterman thing.)


Well, tell me, how would it be done? As far as I know, writable 8 cm discs that can hold Gamecube games aren't available on the market. I thought people used mini-DVDs for those all the time (although usually on modded GCs).

Even then, I think I heard something about Gamecube games using a unique writing method.Well, yes, there's the reverse-written track thing. But they make freeloaders and Action Replays for the Gamecube, so presumably getting it to boot from an unlicensed disc through some exploit or another is not impossible.

[Bojay1997]

Well, of course games are going to plummet in price - but nonetheless that doesn't mean they'll be easy to find, even at that lower price.

I've had my eye out for a copy of Metroid Prime 2 for a while now, for instance. Nothing's turned up here or at the local used game places. I suppose I could buy it on eBay, but the likelihood of getting burned by a bootleg or a scratched-up disc seems kind of likely.

I suspect that title is about to get a lot easier to find. The Metroid Prime Trilogy is coming out next week for the Wii and frankly, there is no reason to own MP2 on the GC after it does. The game even comes in a metal collector's case.

[BetaWolf47]

I suspect that title is about to get a lot easier to find. The Metroid Prime Trilogy is coming out next week for the Wii and frankly, there is no reason to own MP2 on the GC after it does. The game even comes in a metal collector's case.

I can tell you so many things wrong with that statement, especially collector-wise.

[TonyTheTiger]

Isn't GameSpot the incarnation of the Great Satan or something? (Anyway, we only have EBs here, and they're all practically depleted of GC games.)

EB and GameStop are the same store just with different branding. The GameStop inventory search covers all those stores. If you do a search (make sure to click "Show backordered items" at the bottom of the screen) just plug in your zip code and you'll get a list of every store in a 100 mile radius that has the game.

As for it being the Great Satan, some people seem to choose to never do business there...which is their choice, of course. But I find that so long as the company isn't doing anything genuinely immoral like refusing to hire minorities or hosting cock fights in the stock rooms then I'd prefer to take advantage of both the convenience afforded to me by the inventory search and whatever deals and discounts I can find.

[BetaWolf47]

Not to turn this topic into the whole "GameStop sucks!" shebang, the "Zero Originality" videos on YouTube did explain a lot. I do genuinely beleive GameStop is bad for the game industry.

[heybtbm]

A good rule of thumb is:

If a game sells poorly, yet still gets a sequel...that sequel will be produced in lower numbers and eventually harder to find.

Recent case in point: Dragon Quest V (DS) already OOP. Wow. I don't think anyone saw that one coming. Too bad for those that waited for the (not so) inevitable Square-Enix DS price drop. $40 and up continues to be the price of admission. Sealed copies are already fetching $60+ on Amazon/Ebay. Most online stores have been OOS for 2 months.

[TonyTheTiger]

Not to turn this topic into the whole "GameStop sucks!" shebang, the "Zero Originality" videos on YouTube did explain a lot. I do genuinely beleive GameStop is bad for the game industry.

I don't agree with all of the individual policies GameStop employs but I've grown cynical of the anti GameStop rants because each time somebody says they're going to show just how evil GameStop is, thus gearing me up to hear how GameStop fired all minorities or encourages the sexual harassment of female employees, all they end up doing is describing problems that are no better/worse than just about any other major American retailer. I watched Zero Punctuation and all I heard was "yeah, retail work sucks." Which is something I could have told anybody after a year and a half of working at Blockbuster.

Good or bad, though, the fire sales and various coupons make it a rather inexpensive place to shop.

[BetaWolf47]

It really just occurred to me that if there was any set rule towards whether a game was going to be rare, there would be no demand for games. For example, if we knew how much Earthbound was going to be worth, we would've all bought new copies back in the day and stashed them away. But then nobody would want the copies in the wild, because everyone would already own it. Then it wouldn't be valuable at all.

[Bojay1997]

I can tell you so many things wrong with that statement, especially collector-wise.

I was simply making the point that if this guy is just searching for a complete used copy of the game, when this collection comes out, there should be a lot more getting dumped as trade-ins and on Ebay. That's just the reality of how the market works. Yes, as a collector I have the original games as well and will keep them, but if I didn't have them already and just wanted to play them, this new collection is pretty awesome. The metal case is a big selling point and I know a lot of people who are buying this collection just for that reason. Please explain to me what is wrong with my statement if you don't mind.

[BetaWolf47]

There's nothing wrong with THAT statement, just the notion that there is no reason to own the Gamecube version.

[Bojay1997]

A good rule of thumb is:

If a game sells poorly, yet still gets a sequel...that sequel will be produced in lower numbers and eventually harder to find.

Recent case in point: Dragon Quest V (DS) already OOP. Wow. I don't think anyone saw that one coming. Too bad for those that waited for the (not so) inevitable Square-Enix DS price drop. $40 and up continues to be the price of admission. Sealed copies are already fetching $60+ on Amazon/Ebay. Most online stores have been OOS for 2 months.

But even DQV is not a sure thing. Square seems to have no problem printing more copies and if they get the sense that there is real demand out there, I'm certain they will just do another run. That's exactly what happened with The World Ends With You which was hard to find and then recently got re-printed and re-released with a price drop to $20.

[TonyTheTiger]

It really just occurred to me that if there was any set rule towards whether a game was going to be rare, there would be no demand for games. For example, if we knew how much Earthbound was going to be worth, we would've all bought new copies back in the day and stashed them away. But then nobody would want the copies in the wild, because everyone would already own it. Then it wouldn't be valuable at all.

That's the elephant in the room. Figuring out how to spot potential money games is like predicting the stock market. And people on Wall Street have been trying to do just that for as long as the stock market has been around. And sure enough they've all failed. These things are always surprises. You can figure out a general kind of odds but even that is only going to get you so far. "Sports games are common as dirt" sort of goes out the window when you see NCAA College Basketball 2k3 for the GCN. These things just happen. If you have $50 to spend and are thinking about buying a game or two because of the chance of them being super rare, I'll tell you to take that $50 and go put it on a long shot at the racetrack. Believe it or not, it's a much safer bet.

[JohnnyBlaze]

As a member of the KISS Army, I can give a little pointer. If something has a cult following and released in a small run to please the fans(i.e. Legend of Zelda Collector's Edition, Marvel vs. Capcom 2 on Xbox and PS2). Another is if it's a store exclusive(such as the Montgomery Ward Astrocade). If something is released in a small run, but very good, pick it up. Chances are that down the line, it will be worth something.

[The 1 2 P]

There's not many indicators as to which games will be hard to find later. Limited editions are usually the easiest games to find later and the regular editions are the ones that are in shorter supply. Sometimes games advertise their pressing numbers(Castlevania Chronicles for PS1 only had 15,000-25,000 copies made) so thats a good idicator. Rpg's use to always end up in short supply too but that has drastically changed this gen.

All in all it just takes some luck. Some people think that games that don't sell well can be hard to find but this varies. I mean, if a game doesn't sell well at it's normal price, the next two-four years it will be heavily discounted everywhere it's sold. It won't be hard to find until around five years later, unless it was only made in small quantities.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Small print-run titles of the shovelware variety come to mind. They're triple threats... scarce, relatively ignored when new (due to the shovelware stigma), and hard to identify the fun and worthwhile ones because they blur into the rest of the crap on the shelf.

[mobiusclimber]

I don't agree with all of the individual policies GameStop employs but I've grown cynical of the anti GameStop rants because each time somebody says they're going to show just how evil GameStop is, thus gearing me up to hear how GameStop fired all minorities or encourages the sexual harassment of female employees, all they end up doing is describing problems that are no better/worse than just about any other major American retailer. I watched Zero Punctuation and all I heard was "yeah, retail work sucks." Which is something I could have told anybody after a year and a half of working at Blockbuster.

Good or bad, though, the fire sales and various coupons make it a rather inexpensive place to shop.

I don't know of too many other places that sell used games as new the way Gamestop does. You don't have to be evil to suck, you just have to suck, and Gamestop and its policies suck, simple as that. Besides the fact that their prices on games tend to be higher than Amazon AFTER shipping, I don't see a reason to shop there either.

As for the topic at hand, I've got nothing. If you read the Collector's Corner pages reprinted here on DP, you'll see that even people paid for their valuable insights into collecting and finding rare games and such are no better at predicting what games will be worth money later than anyone else. Just read the page after page about buying up Playstation games - titles released at the end of the system's life cycle in limited print runs, all of them totally worthless. Sealed copy of VIP or Largo Winch is not going to net you even the amount you paid for it (which was likely $20 back then).

[BetaWolf47]

As a member of the KISS Army, I can give a little pointer. If something has a cult following and released in a small run to please the fans(i.e. Legend of Zelda Collector's Edition, Marvel vs. Capcom 2 on Xbox and PS2). Another is if it's a store exclusive(such as the Montgomery Ward Astrocade). If something is released in a small run, but very good, pick it up. Chances are that down the line, it will be worth something.

The Legend of Zelda series is definitely not a cult franchise, and Legend of Zelda: Collector's Edition isn't that rare... mainly because it was a pack-in for a little while.

The only current gen game I can think of that may be worth something someday is Game & Watch Collection, only available via Club Nintendo.

[Gentlegamer]

In the spirit of this thread, I bought the GameCube version of Twilight Princess immediately at launch. Has that version become rare at all?

[RPG_Fanatic]

A good rule of thumb is:

If a game sells poorly, yet still gets a sequel...that sequel will be produced in lower numbers and eventually harder to find.

Recent case in point: Dragon Quest V (DS) already OOP. Wow. I don't think anyone saw that one coming. Too bad for those that waited for the (not so) inevitable Square-Enix DS price drop. $40 and up continues to be the price of admission. Sealed copies are already fetching $60+ on Amazon/Ebay. Most online stores have been OOS for 2 months.

Doing a quick search for DQ V on Gamestop and Ebay there is a shit load of them still out there. Gamestop's around me all have new copies for $40.

[Swamperon]

In the spirit of this thread, I bought the GameCube version of Twilight Princess immediately at launch. Has that version become rare at all?

Not rare by any means but certainly keeping its demand. I think over a million copies of it were sold worldwide. Saw a used copy earlier today for £29.99, which is the cheapest I've seen in a long while, have seen it as high as £45.00.

[garagesaleking!!]

i would say any game you have to special order from a magazine or something only sold online direct from the manufacturer, things like that become rare, however, that does not really exist anymore today, unlike back in the day when atari catalogs had a bunch of games you could order.

[Tempest]

I've noticed that most RPGs (unless they're god awful) tend to keep their value. Many of the RPGs for the original Playstation are still worth their original price, some more so. I think it's probably because RPG fans tend to hold onto their games rather than sell them off when they become tired of them. It should be interesting to see if this trend continues

Tempest

[kupomogli]

I know Wind Waker isn't rare, but a sealed copy seems to be able to get it's original MSRP or a bit more on occasion. This is a game that has been Player's Choice and also received a Wind Waker/Metroid Prime release as well.

[smork]

Well, tell me, how would it be done? As far as I know, writable 8 cm discs that can hold Gamecube games aren't available on the market. Even then, I think I heard something about Gamecube games using a unique writing method. There may be other ways to play backups, but I don't think bootleg Gamecube games exist.

Gamecube bootleg discs most assuredly exist. I used to run into them all the time when I lived in Thailand a few years ago. Not being into boots I never looked into how they were made but they were definitely sold in Thailand.

[ScourDX]

My advice would be to do your own research and jump to your own conclusion. Whatever rare for one person is different for another.

Some people think one game is rare because it is expensive, but it isn't. Take Final Fantasy VII for example. It sold millions and people still charge outrageous price on ebay.