Who here hates on-line sellers sometimes?

[PROTOTYPE]

Just lost a bid to one of them.Granted anybody can bid but they have more money to win. As you can see I'm a little piss about it.The auction was for 8 ps1 games, the seller didn't know she had a very rare game in it. I was hopping nobody else did either, I really thought that I was going to win when this seller came out of nowhere. over 31800 sales and won. What game I'm talking about is mortal kombat 3 small jewel case version. It rarely comes to auction. I really don't know what its worth is? I just wanted it for my collection. As this happen to you?:onfire:

[Tupin]

A lot of the time people use sniping programs that have computers place their bid with one second left so they win. It happens all the time, pretty much the only way to win many auctions.

[Rickstilwell1]

Huh, I just snipe things manually by making an appointment to be at my computer when the item ends. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't because people want to pay too much for something.

[PROTOTYPE]

Yea, I know this too...But my point is when on-line sellers bid on game lots you really have to way over bid to have any chance to win.They also go around to ma and pa stores, flea markets ect,, It makes it really hard to find a good deal, let alone a rare game in the wild for cheap.:(

[Aussie2B]

Yeah, resellers have definitely become a problem in recent years, but what can you do. Whoever is willing to pay the most gets it, simple as that. I just wish the resellers weren't artificially inflating prices by paying more than a lot is worth, even if you bought each game separately and paid usual going rate for each. For anyone else, the lot would be a rip-off at that point, but the resellers don't care if they overpay a bit because they'll list everything separately with complete ass-rape Buy It Now prices, sitting on the stock until the day a sucker comes along.

[PROTOTYPE]

Man, you are so right.This auction I'm talking about had 8 ps1 games and 7 of the games were worth maybe 3 to 8 a piece. mortal kombat 3 is not a very good game but its a rare version of that game and he knew that so he put a sniper program on it So, no matter what I bid on it went over it. I was caught off guard, I should just been honest with seller and offer her a buy it now sale and try to deal...but try to get it cheap. This seller will sell this for big time inflated money, I will see in on-line by next week or two.:(

[jonebone]

Where's the link?

I doubt the winning bidder has any idea about the MK3 small case variant, it's extremely niche. I just sold one on these boards maybe 2 months ago, and there's only a couple of people that own it.

Resellers know about the hot and popular stuff but not much about variants, especially on PS1 where variants aren't talked about too much.

[wiggyx]

A lot of the time people use sniping programs that have computers place their bid with one second left so they win. It happens all the time, pretty much the only way to win many auctions.

No, the only way to win is to bid more than anyone else is willing to, no matter what time you bid. Bidding last second really serves no real purpose other than to get you all worked up and bidding more than you originally intended.

[Genesaturn]

I understand your pain man - but there is a point where its not even worth it anymore - my first bid I always put the max i'm willing to dish out, and if some sap wants to overpay, then its his own fault. It's just the way it is man.

[Bojay1997]

No, the only way to win is to bid more than anyone else is willing to, no matter what time you bid. Bidding last second really serves no real purpose other than to get you all worked up and bidding more than you originally intended.

Exactly right.

[jb143]

No, the only way to win is to bid more than anyone else is willing to, no matter what time you bid. Bidding last second really serves no real purpose other than to get you all worked up and bidding more than you originally intended.

No, sniping is how you get something for as cheap as possible. You don't leave time for someone else to raise your bid. Putting in more than anyone else is willing to pay simply means that you're leaving it to everyone else how much you pay. If you put a max bid of $10000 then you're sure to win most everything...but you'll also end up overpaying for a lot of it.

[Badhornet]

I just bid the most I'm willing to bid for an item. If I win great, if I dont then thats fine too. At least I know I didnt feel I overbid. Ebay has always been a crapshoot

[Jaruff]

No, sniping is how you get something for as cheap as possible. You don't leave time for someone else to raise your bid. Putting in more than anyone else is willing to pay simply means that you're leaving it to everyone else how much you pay. If you put a max bid of $10000 then you're sure to win most everything...but you'll also end up overpaying for a lot of it.

This is true.

If I see an item I want that's about to end, I come up with a figure in my head. I add a few dollars to that figure and I pull up the menu and I'm ready to bid with a few seconds left. If I win, awesome. If not, oh well. There are other items that I don't care if I win or not so I won't worry about securing a last second bid. I'll just put in a figure I'm willing to pay and see what happens.

[wiggyx]

No, sniping is how you get something for as cheap as possible. You don't leave time for someone else to raise your bid. Putting in more than anyone else is willing to pay simply means that you're leaving it to everyone else how much you pay. If you put a max bid of $10000 then you're sure to win most everything...but you'll also end up overpaying for a lot of it.

"you're leaving it to everyone else how much you pay"

I hope that I'm understanding what you mean by this. You're ALWAYS leaving it up to other people bidding against you (if there are any) to determine what the final sale price will be. Instead you're proposing that we should fight fire with fire (sniper against sniper) :beaten:

eBay isn't an auction house, you have no idea what someone else is bidding. Snipers will bid last second no matter if you've already bid or not. If they bid more than you're willing to pay, then kudos for them. If not, congrats, you won.

[Aussie2B]

Sniping is to deal with the people who don't put in their max bid. There are a lot of bidders who will incrementally bid just for the purpose of claiming the top bidder status. When they get outbid, then they just make another bid. If you bid at the very end, you can outsmart them by not giving them enough time to reclaim the top spot. If you bid earlier, they'll either chip away at your lead, forcing you to pay more, or will outbid you. I've never used an automatic bidding program myself, but I often do wait until near the end. There are times when I wish I placed my bid even later since if I leave a minute or two remaining, the bidder I outbid will have enough time to place some more bids.

[understatement]

"you're leaving it to everyone else how much you pay"

I hope that I'm understanding what you mean by this. You're ALWAYS leaving it up to other people bidding against you (if there are any) to determine what the final sale price will be. Instead you're proposing that we should fight fire with fire (sniper against sniper) :beaten:

eBay isn't an auction house, you have no idea what someone else is bidding. Snipers will bid last second no matter if you've already bid or not. If they bid more than you're willing to pay, then kudos for them. If not, congrats, you won.

Ebay is a system if you know how to work it only people’s initial bids will determine what you pay.

As an example, say a lot of games goes up starting at $.99 for 7 days and this lots estimated value is $100. I want it but I don’t bid till the last 20 seconds so I watch for now, by day two it has say 4 bids and is currently sitting at $5.50 with someone on the winning side with a max bid of say $25.00 because like the OP he wants to get the lot cheap. He sits with the winning bid all the way till the end, So he assumes that hes going get a great deal when he wins. He might sit there with the mouse on the “1 click bid” button but if no one has pushed past his $25 bid by now why would they? So he keeps his max bid where it is. Then someone like me comes and in the last 20 seconds and puts a max bid of $90. The guy doesn’t know what to do he was so sure it was won he might have enough time to do one or two “1 click bids” but not enough to put in a new max bid. So now I just won a $100 lot for about $29 and if another sniper did it for more than $90 I wouldn’t have time to even try another bid and would lose or if bid up to my max I would pay as I was willing to do from the start.

Edit: Basically what Aussie2B said.

[jb143]

Sniping is to deal with the people who don't put in their max bid. There are a lot of bidders who will incrementally bid just for the purpose of claiming the top bidder status. When they get outbid, then they just make another bid. If you bid at the very end, you can outsmart them by not giving them enough time to reclaim the top spot. If you bid earlier, they'll either chip away at your lead, forcing you to pay more, or will outbid you. I've never used an automatic bidding program myself, but I often do wait until near the end. There are times when I wish I placed my bid even later since if I leave a minute or two remaining, the bidder I outbid will have enough time to place some more bids.

This. This is how most people seem to bid. Either they don't realize that ebay will up their bid for them or they want to think they will get it for as cheap as possible. Just look at bidding history and you will see it's true. They almost always make the lowest possible bid until they are the highest bidder. It makes no sense to do it this way. What they could end up doing is getting into a bidding war with someone else doing the same thing.

Now on the other hand, lets say that someone bids $1.00 on something early on in the listing. They check back every day and see if someone outbid them. Now you want it so you bid $20. The auction now sits at$1.25(or whatever) Then they see that and bid $1.50, then $1.75, then $2.00, then decide to give up when they hit $10.00. Well, if you had waited until the end(and provided no one else was bidding) then you could have won it for $1.25 instead of $10.50. This is why snipping works.

Having said that though, I tend to prefer Buy it now listings...so much less drama.

[wiggyx]

Sniping is to deal with the people who don't put in their max bid. There are a lot of bidders who will incrementally bid just for the purpose of claiming the top bidder status. When they get outbid, then they just make another bid. If you bid at the very end, you can outsmart them by not giving them enough time to reclaim the top spot. If you bid earlier, they'll either chip away at your lead, forcing you to pay more, or will outbid you. I've never used an automatic bidding program myself, but I often do wait until near the end. There are times when I wish I placed my bid even later since if I leave a minute or two remaining, the bidder I outbid will have enough time to place some more bids.


Ebay is a system if you know how to work it only people’s initial bids will determine what you pay.

As an example, say a lot of games goes up starting at $.99 for 7 days and this lots estimated value is $100. I want it but I don’t bid till the last 20 seconds so I watch for now, by day two it has say 4 bids and is currently sitting at $5.50 with someone on the winning side with a max bid of say $25.00 because like the OP he wants to get the lot cheap. He sits with the winning bid all the way till the end, So he assumes that hes going get a great deal when he wins. He might sit there with the mouse on the “1 click bid” button but if no one has pushed past his $25 bid by now why would they? So he keeps his max bid where it is. Then someone like me comes and in the last 20 seconds and puts a max bid of $90. The guy doesn’t know what to do he was so sure it was won he might have enough time to do one or two “1 click bids” but not enough to put in a new max bid. So now I just won a $100 lot for about $29 and if another sniper did it for more than $90 I wouldn’t have time to even try another bid and would lose or if bid up to my max I would pay as I was willing to do from the start.

Edit: Basically what Aussie2B said.


The logic still seems broken to me, and it's largely because you assume you're the only person that's bidding last minute, and that the person whom you are bidding against hasn't entered their max bid from the get-go.

Let's say your max is 90 bucks and you bid in the last 20 seconds, and I do the same but with a $100 max, then I win. It didn't matter one bit that you waited until the last second to bid. And if $90 was your max and there's a bidding war going on, or I had bid my max of $100 on day one, then it wouldn't have mattered anyway. Other people will be bidding last second, and that gives you just about zero advantage.

Sure, if one guy is bidding and hasn't entered the highest price that he's willing to pay, AND doesn't do a very good job of watching the auction at the very end, then you are correct, it will be easy to outbid him last second and win. Assuming that someone bidding against you in the last 30 or so seconds "doesn't know what to do" is just that, assuming. You "know" what you're doing, so you could just as easily assume that he does too.

I've bid on PLENTY of auctions where someone has chipped away until they hit the max bid that I or someone else holds in the last minute or so. Whether they chip away with 30 days left or 30 seconds doesn't matter, there are folks that will do so either way.

The method that you guys prescribe may have an amount of efficacy in certain, rare instances. But it's hardly the norm, at least in my experience with eBay in the last 13 years. All that said, I've employed your variety of tactic in the past. I found it both time and energy consuming, not to mention a waste of both on most occasions.

EVERYONE has a price limit, sniper or not. Racing against the clock doesn't guarantee that yours is the max or that someone else isn't a better sniper than you.

[PROTOTYPE]

“1 click bid” button but if no one has pushed past his $25 bid by now why would they? So he keeps his max bid where it is. Then someone like me comes and in the last 20 seconds and puts a max bid of $90. The guy doesn’t know what to do he was so sure it was won he might have enough time to do one or two “1 click bids” but not enough to put in a new max bid. So now I just won a $100 lot for about $29 .....WOW! that's how it exactly happen too. A 7 day auction it was sitting at 9.99 and 4.00 shipping, there was no traffic on the meter and I was the only bid. But I had a feeling there was someone else wanting this game too.The other games were really crap, So put a max bid of 29.00 on it.he hit it with 2 sec and won because I had no time to re-bid.. I really didn't know how much this was worth to me, looking back I should had put more. E-bay really is about luck or trying to get the seller to end the auction early, which I didn't try.:(

[Bojay1997]

The logic still seems broken to me, and it's largely because you assume you're the only person that's bidding last minute, and that the person whom you are bidding against hasn't entered their max bid from the get-go.

Let's say your max is 90 bucks and you bid in the last 20 seconds, and I do the same but with a $100 max, then I win. It didn't matter one bit that you waited until the last second to bid. And if $90 was your max and there's a bidding war going on, or I had bid my max of $100 on day one, then it wouldn't have mattered anyway. Other people will be bidding last second, and that gives you just about zero advantage.

Sure, if one guy is bidding and hasn't entered the highest price that he's willing to pay, AND doesn't do a very good job of watching the auction at the very end, then you are correct, it will be easy to outbid him last second and win. Assuming that someone bidding against you in the last 30 or so seconds "doesn't know what to do" is just that, assuming. You "know" what you're doing, so you could just as easily assume that he does too.

I've bid on PLENTY of auctions where someone has chipped away until they hit the max bid that I or someone else holds in the last minute or so. Whether they chip away with 30 days left or 30 seconds doesn't matter, there are folks that will do so either way.

The method that you guys prescribe may have an amount of efficacy in certain, rare instances. But it's hardly the norm, at least in my experience with eBay in the last 13 years. All that said, I've employed your variety of tactic in the past. I found it both time and energy consuming, not to mention a waste of both on most occasions.

EVERYONE has a price limit, sniper or not. Racing against the clock doesn't guarantee that yours is the max or that someone else isn't a better sniper than you.

Again, this is absolutely correct. People who claim sniping gets them cheaper wins or some other advantage seem to have some mental picture of either a bidder that is too stupid to bid what they really are willing to pay for something or not aware of sniping or last minute bids and who just bids once and only bids in response to getting outbid. In my experience at least in bidding on video games, neither bidder really exists or if they do, there's always several other people who outbid them anyway long before they become the deciding factor in the final auction price. Some people snipe and some people bid huge amounts from the get go. Either way, if someone bids more than I am willing to go, they win the item.

I recall trying to explain this to my dad the first time he used Ebay to bid on some coins last year and he just couldn't get over the fact that if "he had only bid another dollar", he could have won the item he was bidding on. Once I explained to him that you never can be sure what the other bidders or snipers maximum bid really is and that while they had technically only paid one more dollar than his maximum bid, if he had bid another dollar, he still probably wouldn't have won, he seemed to understand it a lot better. Unfortunately, it looks like some fellow collectors still don't get how Ebay auctions work if they believe that sniping somehow gives anyone an edge or results in paying less for everything. If you're winning with sniping, that's awesome, but you're still bidding and paying more than anyone else that bid on the item within the time limit of that particular auction, so you're not exactly getting away with anything.

[Natty Bumppo]

Snipers can outfox themselves sometimes. Depending on the item (and when it ends) I try to put my maximum bid in about one minute out. I have won some auctions just under the margin of my maximum bid from a sniper who if they had the time (and were watching) would have snapped to the fact that they could have had the auction with one more bid with just the next increment. If someone bids in that minute (and is under me) I will sometimes adjust my bid a bit to just go over whatever fraction of a dollar the person is using in case they bid again (assuming I have time).

[understatement]

Again, this is absolutely correct. People who claim sniping gets them cheaper wins or some other advantage seem to have some mental picture of either a bidder that is too stupid to bid what they really are willing to pay for something or not aware of sniping or last minute bids and who just bids once and only bids in response to getting outbid. In my experience at least in bidding on video games, neither bidder really exists or if they do, there's always several other people who outbid them anyway long before they become the deciding factor in the final auction price. Some people snipe and some people bid huge amounts from the get go. Either way, if someone bids more than I am willing to go, they win the item.

I recall trying to explain this to my dad the first time he used Ebay to bid on some coins last year and he just couldn't get over the fact that if "he had only bid another dollar", he could have won the item he was bidding on. Once I explained to him that you never can be sure what the other bidders or snipers maximum bid really is and that while they had technically only paid one more dollar than his maximum bid, if he had bid another dollar, he still probably wouldn't have won, he seemed to understand it a lot better. Unfortunately, it looks like some fellow collectors still don't get how Ebay auctions work if they believe that sniping somehow gives anyone an edge or results in paying less for everything. If you're winning with sniping, that's awesome, but you're still bidding and paying more than anyone else that bid on the item within the time limit of that particular auction, so you're not exactly getting away with anything.

Never said I was getting away with anything or that others don't know just giving others less time to react thus having a chance (not a safe bet but a chance) to get an action for less. It's not like I'm putting a $2K bid down on Super Mario in the last few seconds just to win, it's always a bid that I'm willing to pay if it's maxed out. If I put my absolute max bid down the first day there a chance someone like your Dad coming along and saying "just one more dollar and I'll win" till it happens, I'd rather just let them think they have it won and at the last few seconds put my bid in and not give them time to bid one more dollar. I don't see how its that hard to understand.

[Bojay1997]

It's not hard to understand at all, it's simply that you don't understand how bidding really works on Ebay today. Contrary to your stereotypes about Ebay bidders, most of them aren't elderly people who just bid once at far less than they really are willing to pay and then either hope nobody else comes along and bids more or sits there thinking they will increase their bid if someone outbids them, only to get screwed in the last seconds because snipers like yourself come along. Admittedly, in the early days of Ebay there were bidders like that and sniping programs were all the rage. That hasn't been the case in a number of years.

Especially in the video games categories, everyone is generally pretty young and tech savvy. Those people are well aware of snipers like yourself and protect themselves by bidding their maximum from the get go or sniping themselves in the last minute for whatever their maximum may be. As such, whether you bid your actual maximum the day the auction goes up or in the last five seconds has no impact. You can't predict the behavior or pocketbook of other bidders and the outcome is identical. Whoever bids more wins regardless of when they do it.


Never said I was getting away with anything or that others don't know just giving others less time to react thus having a chance (not a safe bet but a chance) to get an action for less. It's not like I'm putting a $2K bid down on Super Mario in the last few seconds just to win, it's always a bid that I'm willing to pay if it's maxed out. If I put my absolute max bid down the first day there a chance someone like your Dad coming along and saying "just one more dollar and I'll win" till it happens, I'd rather just let them think they have it won and at the last few seconds put my bid in and not give them time to bid one more dollar. I don't see how its that hard to understand.

[stalepie]

The only advantage I can see to sniping is not to call attention to an auction that is being overlooked and be the only bidder at the end. For instance, I felt sorry for this one (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&item=320891030866&nma=true&rt=nc&si=gTEdVhPQlfguxGWwZlqUt3U3MRM%253D&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWAX%3AIT&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc#ht_826wt_1001) and his other items because he doesn't know to space out titles properly, which means many of his games don't show up in search results. I contacted him to tell him that, but he didn't change, and he lost $15-20 on NG3.

But if no bids are placed it goes less noticed, perhaps, or I thought maybe that was so. Otherwise it's just a matter of placing whatever you're willing to pay. The psychology of course is that no one really knows what they're willing to pay and the intense moments at the end you end up putting in a little more, or a lot more like in that scene in War Horse.

[Bojay1997]

The only advantage I can see to sniping is not to call attention to an auction that is being overlooked and be the only bidder at the end. For instance, I felt sorry for this one (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&item=320891030866&nma=true&rt=nc&si=gTEdVhPQlfguxGWwZlqUt3U3MRM%253D&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWAX%3AIT&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc#ht_826wt_1001) and his other items because he doesn't know to space out titles properly, which means many of his games don't show up in search results. I contacted him to tell him that, but he didn't change, and he lost $15-20 on NG3.

But if no bids are placed it goes less noticed, perhaps, or I thought maybe that was so. Otherwise it's just a matter of placing whatever you're willing to pay. The psychology of course is that no one really knows what they're willing to pay and the intense moments at the end you end up putting in a little more, or a lot more like in that scene in War Horse.

I could see that possibly, although with the way Ebay is hiding bidder names now, unless you know someone is tracking you or just looks for auctions that have bidders on them, it's still not much of an advantage if any. There are people that have search parameters constantly searching for certain items and your only real shot is if the seller writes the description wrong or omits a rare or valuable item and you're the only one that notices.

[understatement]

It's not hard to understand at all, it's simply that you don't understand how bidding really works on Ebay today. Contrary to your stereotypes about Ebay bidders, most of them aren't elderly people who just bid once at far less than they really are willing to pay and then either hope nobody else comes along and bids more or sits there thinking they will increase their bid if someone outbids them, only to get screwed in the last seconds because snipers like yourself come along. Admittedly, in the early days of Ebay there were bidders like that and sniping programs were all the rage. That hasn't been the case in a number of years.

Just my option but it sounds like your stereotyping me I seem to have a pretty good understanding of how it works, sometimes as shown by the OP...


.....WOW! that's how it exactly happen too. A 7 day auction it was sitting at 9.99 and 4.00 shipping, there was no traffic on the meter and I was the only bid. But I had a feeling there was someone else wanting this game too.The other games were really crap, So put a max bid of 29.00 on it.he hit it with 2 sec and won because I had no time to re-bid.. I really didn't know how much this was worth to me, looking back I should had put more. E-bay really is about luck or trying to get the seller to end the auction early, which I didn't try.:(

I'm not saying it's the majority but it does happen and here is the proof. I'm also not saying if the OP sniped he would have out sniped this guy but the fact is this guy sniped and won this action for $1 more than the OP but the OP was willing to pay more just didn't have time. Personally I'd rather have the chance of something like this happening with sniping than putting a big bid down from the start and having people nickle and dime it to the top.


Especially in the video games categories, everyone is generally pretty young and tech savvy. Those people are well aware of snipers like yourself and protect themselves by bidding their maximum from the get go or sniping themselves in the last minute for whatever their maximum may be. As such, whether you bid your actual maximum the day the auction goes up or in the last five seconds has no impact. You can't predict the behavior or pocketbook of other bidders and the outcome is identical. Whoever bids more wins regardless of when they do it.

I agree. (I consider myself the one in bold) I'll also agree that sniping doesn't translate well to big ticket items but for more mundane stuff it works quite often.


Edit:

You can't predict the behavior or pocketbook of other bidders and the outcome is identical.

I notices you say things like this but you can't consider it to work the other way? In other words other bidders will never bid the bare minimum and only raise only for nesesity? Sounds like a behavior you couldn't predict to me.

[Bojay1997]

Just my option but it sounds like your stereotyping me I seem to have a pretty good understanding of how it works, sometimes as shown by the OP...



I'm not saying it's the majority but it does happen and here is the proof. I'm also not saying if the OP sniped he would have out sniped this guy but the fact is this guy sniped and won this action for $1 more than the OP but the OP was willing to pay more just didn't have time. Personally I'd rather have the chance of something like this happening with sniping than putting a big bid down from the start and having people nickle and dime it to the top.



I agree. (I consider myself the one in bold) I'll also agree that sniping doesn't translate well to big ticket items but for more mundane stuff it works quite often.

Ok, provide me one bit of evidence, not speculation, that your sniping has ever resulted in you paying less for an item than if you had bid the maximum amount you were willing to pay on day one. The point is, unless you personally know the other bidders and they told you "gee, I was really planning on bidding again, but you made your last bid too soon before the auction ended and I couldn't", there is no way you can ever know if your sniping has ever saved you a dime or if every auction you have ever bid on ended exactly where it would have if you just bid the maximum on day one. You have also just proven that what you believe is the same fallacy myself and the others saying sniping doesn't work have been talking about. The OP has zero idea how much the sniper bid. What if the sniper actually increased his bid by an increment of $50? The way Ebay works, everyone's maximum bid is kept secret. Not even the seller knows how much the bidder really bid. All anyone ever knows is who bid the most by the minimum increment needed to beat the next highest bid. If the OP had bid again, there is no guarantee he would have won or beaten the sniper's bid. In fact, it's more likely that he wouldn't have beaten the winning bidder, especially if he was just going to bid $1 more. In the end, it was his unwillingness to bid his maximum that cost him the item, not when he placed his bid.

[Porksta]

In the end, it was his unwillingness to bid his maximum that cost him the item, not when he placed his bid.

This. I never understood why people say complain about willingness to pay more for an item. Ebay lets you automatically bid up to a maximum. If you are willing to pay "x" for an item, then why not bid that much? It isn't like it automatically records a bid for your maximum.

[PROTOTYPE]

OK, I been on e-bay for over 12 years and won a lot of auctions some very good, some not so good.This is the problem with e-bay now, like in my auction I bid has high I wanted to get it for... but its not as high if push comes to shove. People don't really want to put the max on right away because we trying to get a deal. A sniper or a store, reseller is going to bluff you out of the auction by bidding higher then you because they have better means to re-selled or take a lost.Same goes for people that have a lot money to burn. Really, is it fair if the game is worth 40.00 you put a max bid of 50.00 and it sells for 51.00 they are in it to make money,I'm just trying to collect games.All this does is makes games go up in price ect.. That's why its getting harder to get great deals anymore, Really only with the harder to find games.I really believe that game will be on-line for 100.00 or more in two weeks from now and somebody will buy it.:(

[Jaruff]

OK, I been on e-bay for over 12 years and won a lot of auctions some very good, some not so good.This is the problem with e-bay now, like in my auction I bid has high I wanted to get it for... but its not as high if push comes to shove. People don't really want to put the max on right away because we trying to get a deal. A sniper or a store, reseller is going to bluff you out of the auction by bidding higher then you because they have better means to re-selled or take a lost.Same goes for people that have a lot money to burn. Really, is it fair if the game is worth 40.00 you put a max bid of 50.00 and it sells for 51.00 they are in it to make money,I'm just trying to collect games.All this does is makes games go up in price ect.. That's why its getting harder to get great deals anymore, Really only with the harder to find games.I really believe that game will be on-line for 100.00 or more in two weeks from now and somebody will buy it.:(

What you're experiencing is capitalism. The free market commands a price and if you want the item, you have to pay the highest price. It's certainly fair that you lost out on that auction: you were unwilling to pay more than $50 for a lot the free market valued at $51.

You want a great deal for your collection. A reseller wants a great deal for their wallet. It's the same concept. If you feel that game would command $100 on the market, you should have placed a higher bid. Better yet, if you really wanted to be fair, you should have messaged the seller about their rare item. You're concerned with a "good" deal but what about the uninformed seller? Don't they deserve a "good" deal too by receiving closer to appraisal value for their rare item? Exactly.

[understatement]

Ok, provide me one bit of evidence, not speculation, that your sniping has ever resulted in you paying less for an item than if you had bid the maximum amount you were willing to pay on day one. The point is, unless you personally know the other bidders and they told you "gee, I was really planning on bidding again, but you made your last bid too soon before the auction ended and I couldn't", there is no way you can ever know if your sniping has ever saved you a dime or if every auction you have ever bid on ended exactly where it would have if you just bid the maximum on day one. You have also just proven that what you believe is the same fallacy myself and the others saying sniping doesn't work have been talking about. The OP has zero idea how much the sniper bid. What if the sniper actually increased his bid by an increment of $50? The way Ebay works, everyone's maximum bid is kept secret. Not even the seller knows how much the bidder really bid. All anyone ever knows is who bid the most by the minimum increment needed to beat the next highest bid. If the OP had bid again, there is no guarantee he would have won or beaten the sniper's bid. In fact, it's more likely that he wouldn't have beaten the winning bidder, especially if he was just going to bid $1 more. In the end, it was his unwillingness to bid his maximum that cost him the item, not when he placed his bid.

It's strange having this kind of debate I agree with so much of what your saying, but I have the opinion that sniping gives someone that little bit of an edge. If you don't have that opinion there's next to nothing I could say to change your opinion (I tried) and that's cool you do it your way and I'll do it mine.

[Aussie2B]

Ok, provide me one bit of evidence, not speculation, that your sniping has ever resulted in you paying less for an item than if you had bid the maximum amount you were willing to pay on day one. The point is, unless you personally know the other bidders and they told you "gee, I was really planning on bidding again, but you made your last bid too soon before the auction ended and I couldn't", there is no way you can ever know if your sniping has ever saved you a dime or if every auction you have ever bid on ended exactly where it would have if you just bid the maximum on day one.

There's no way to show evidence that you've saved money, but it's pretty clear when you've lost money or the auction and could've avoided that. When you have over a decade of experience placing your own bid that outbids the previous top bidder and then seeing him/her incrementally try to outbid you in the final seconds, it's obvious that there are many people who don't understand how eBay works and bid only to claim the top bid, not to their max. Sure, you could theorize that some of these people would do this even without any competition appearing, just to try to protect their top bid status by putting in an even higher maximum, but I'm highly skeptical that that scenario accounts for more than a small fraction of these situations.

[PROTOTYPE]

So now its my job to tell the seller what a game is worth? it was a open auction that's what she was trying to find out? I still don't know what it's worth, its the first one I seen for sale. I'm really just guessing what he will sell it for. but to me it was worth a lot.The real point is it drives inflated prices on games and we all lose, unless we sell!@_@

[JSoup]

I've been using ebay since day one and I still don't understand the need for all this crap. If I see something I want on ebay, I set my max bid for whatever I feel it's worth and leave it at that. If someone else wins, they obviously placed more value on it than I did.

[Bojay1997]

I've been using ebay since day one and I still don't understand the need for all this crap. If I see something I want on ebay, I set my max bid for whatever I feel it's worth and leave it at that. If someone else wins, they obviously placed more value on it than I did.

Exactly. That's what most bidders do which is why sniping doesn't work plain and simple. It's also why people who complain about losing an auction that goes to completion and don't end up as the highest bidder have literally nothing to complain about.

[Jaruff]

So now its my job to tell the seller what a game is worth? it was a open auction that's what she was trying to find out? I still don't know what it's worth, its the first one I seen for sale. I'm really just guessing what he will sell it for. but to me it was worth a lot.The real point is it drives inflated prices on games and we all lose, unless we sell!@_@

Exactly.

It's not your job to inform the seller of their lack of knowledge. It's also not the job of another bidder (a reseller as you claim) to give you the courtesy of a good deal for your collection. As you said yourself, it was an open auction. It's not "unfair" that someone who might resell the items outbid you by a dollar. It was within the confines of the auction rules. My point is that the "fairness" complaint goes both ways.

Your collection is essentially a portfolio of various stocks which you will keep for a long time. A resellers inventory is essentially a portfolio of a day trader. Different methods but essentially the same activity.

[jonebone]

That's why its getting harder to get great deals anymore, Really only with the harder to find games.I really believe that game will be on-line for 100.00 or more in two weeks from now and somebody will buy it.:(

Why haven't you posted the link, like I asked on the first page? Also, as someone who has bought and sold this game myself, I highly doubt it would sell for $100. Not that much demand for this one.

You said this lot of 8 PS1 games went for $29? If it was just anything decent and non-sports, a reseller could have figured $5 a game for a maximum of $40. You a have provided no proof for me to believe that this reseller actually knows what he has. In reality, I wouldn't be surprised if he lists the MK3 at $15 or so, just pricing it equal to a normal MK3.

People give resellers too much credit. They know what's hot and what's talked about. A niche variant on PS1 is not something that most sellers know or even care about.

[jonebone]

Ok, provide me one bit of evidence, not speculation, that your sniping has ever resulted in you paying less for an item than if you had bid the maximum amount you were willing to pay on day one.

You've never seen auctions with an BIN option, that get bid up past the original BIN price?

Example, game with $19.99 starting bid, $29.99 BIN option.

I want it, not sure what I want to pay. I wait until the last 5 seconds to bid, to hide my intent. I can come in with a $29.98 max bid and probably win it 99 times out of 100, for closer to $20 than $30. Why? Because everyone else viewing the auction assumes it is not worth $30, otherwise the BIN would have been clicked already.

Or, I could just bid $29.98 on day one. Anyone else viewing the auction late doesn't even know the BIN existed, and just see my bid showing at $19.99. If they want it, they can push it up as high as they want it to go, well past $30.

Please don't argue with me. You asked for an example, I provided one. End of discussion.

[JSoup]

You've never seen auctions with an BIN option, that get bid up past the original BIN price?

Example, game with $19.99 starting bid, $29.99 BIN option.

I want it, not sure what I want to pay. I wait until the last 5 seconds to bid, to hide my intent. I can come in with a $29.98 max bid and probably win it 99 times out of 100, for closer to $20 than $30. Why? Because everyone else viewing the auction assumes it is not worth $30, otherwise the BIN would have been clicked already.

Or, I could just bid $29.98 on day one. Anyone else viewing the auction late doesn't even know the BIN existed, and just see my bid showing at $19.99. If they want it, they can push it up as high as they want it to go, well past $30.

Please don't argue with me. You asked for an example, I provided one. End of discussion.

Your example is a fine example of imaginary savings.

[Cornelius]

I've been using ebay since day one and I still don't understand the need for all this crap. If I see something I want on ebay, I set my max bid for whatever I feel it's worth and leave it at that. If someone else wins, they obviously placed more value on it than I did.


Exactly. That's what most bidders do which is why sniping doesn't work plain and simple. It's also why people who complain about losing an auction that goes to completion and don't end up as the highest bidder have literally nothing to complain about.

I'm with Understatement and Aussie on this one, and this quote is the part of your argument that I disagree with. Many bidders get emotionally invested in 'winning' an auction they've already bid on. As a direct refutation that 'most bidders set their max and leave it', just look at all the times a bidder puts in ten bids raising it 50 cents each time until they claim the lead (or not). This is not the behavior of someone setting their max. Additionally, if you look at completed auctions like I do when trying to price something, it isn't all that uncommon to find auctions that ended higher than BINs for the same item. This is more evidence that people get emotionally invested in winning. This is what the term 'bidding war' defines. Heck, the existence and common usage of the term bidding war defies the 'most bidders set their max' claim.

I personally use a sniping website to take out any emotion on my part and because I believe it can help get a better price. It is real easy for me to say 'maybe just one more dollar' if I bid early on and get outbid. What can I say, I'm weak-willed compared to Bojay and GameboyColor. So instead I just punch it in goofbay and forget about it.

The only way to prove that you can get lower prices using sniping would be to get lots of data points and run some statistical analysis. That actually wouldn't be too hard on an item with a pretty steady price/value over time, it would just take a long time to mine out the data. I feel the evidence I mentioned above is pretty compelling, though.

[understatement]

Exactly. That's what most bidders do which is why sniping doesn't work plain and simple.

I think it’s funny you posted something like this with this posted right before basically showing that your wrong.


like in my auction I bid has high I wanted to get it for... but its not as high if push comes to shove. People don't really want to put the max on right away because we trying to get a deal.

Maybe you guys that bid on thousands of dollars of stuff a week have lost sight that most people try to live within their means and not outside them. In other words say I don’t have thousands of dollars to work with from the last few sales of my games, I might give myself $25 a week to blow I put it all in a bid for something that normally goes for $50 on Sunday and on Monday I give myself another $25 do I go and put that with my bid? No I’m already winning it there’s no point I’d rather spend this $25 on something else but if push comes to shove I will put it to the bid but I really don’t want to.

I think more people bid like this than you think. There’s no way to prove my theory but the OP is a good example of it and I myself have done it in the past and still do it if I don’t have a lot of cash to work with because sometimes you can get lucky. The reason I think this happens is there’s a big difference in $100 made at a day job and $100 made off some game that I paid next to nothing for at a yard sale. I can see where someone that makes hundreds of dollars an hour can be relaxed with their money I’m not even that hard off but it still takes about 3 hours for me to make a $100 at work and I can see if someone had a manual labor job getting paid the minimum would be even more likely to bid like this.

[understatement]

Why haven't you posted the link, like I asked on the first page? Also, as someone who has bought and sold this game myself, I highly doubt it would sell for $100. Not that much demand for this one.


It's probably this one.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item2a1c617750&item=180864776016&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=dTvXG%252FYPkDClp30EpOYfFHS9OhY%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc

Wroms Armageddon used to be worth something IDK what it goes for now.

[Scissors]

It's probably this one.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item2a1c617750&item=180864776016&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=dTvXG%252FYPkDClp30EpOYfFHS9OhY%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc

Wroms Armageddon used to be worth something IDK what it goes for now.


If that's really the auction, PROTOTYPE should be happy he lost if he only wanted it for MK3. That's the PC version of MK3, not the PS1 version.

[PROTOTYPE]

There is the link.. Maybe you are right about the seller just going for the lot, that just makes me feel worst.The last comment says it all. We want to win but at what cost? People over bid on everything,They over bid a brand new copy's they can get cheaper in the store! No get me started on Btu-rays as this happens all the time. Yes, the one with the most money does usually win and that is fair... but sometimes life is not fair and we are not so fortunate...:(

[PROTOTYPE]

I really don't know what to say...........:confused:

[PROTOTYPE]

I really don't know what to say...........:confused: I thought the case look different? But I couldn't blow out the picture to make sure.

[Scissors]

For your future reference:

PS1 version (picture from Game-rave (http://www.game-rave.com/psx_games/j_n/psx_mortalkombat3/)):

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/5737/aaajiu.jpg

PC version (picture from a random eBay auction):

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/1370/aaaaaawz.jpg

[jonebone]

Haha, that's great. Yeah, this reseller did you a favor, that's just MK3 on PC and there is nothing rare about it. Be thankful you lost, this was a blessing in disguise.

The search feature here sucks, or I'd link you to the thread from the WTB forum where I sold a copy. Ignore the Starblade alpha manual, but here's the pics I still have in my photobucket.

http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae299/jonebone/103_9093.jpg
http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae299/jonebone/103_9094.jpg

Now that is the rare small case MK3 variant that PS1 collectors talk about. By a freak of luck, I had two, and I sold my duplicate. Good luck to anyone obtaining a copy, but I will never part with mine.

[JSoup]

For the record, I wasn't claiming that 'make a bid and leave it' was what the majority (or, hell, even the minority) do. Just what I do.

[Bojay1997]

How is this relevant in any way to the discussion? Nobody else bid, so you got it for slightly less than the BIN. All you did is wait to see if anyone else wanted it and it turns out they didn't. So you paid $20 for something that nobody else wanted. Congratulations? It also shows you don't really know how much things are worth if you are waiting for other bidders to help you figure it out. That seems like a dumb way to run a small reselling business.


You've never seen auctions with an BIN option, that get bid up past the original BIN price?

Example, game with $19.99 starting bid, $29.99 BIN option.

I want it, not sure what I want to pay. I wait until the last 5 seconds to bid, to hide my intent. I can come in with a $29.98 max bid and probably win it 99 times out of 100, for closer to $20 than $30. Why? Because everyone else viewing the auction assumes it is not worth $30, otherwise the BIN would have been clicked already.

Or, I could just bid $29.98 on day one. Anyone else viewing the auction late doesn't even know the BIN existed, and just see my bid showing at $19.99. If they want it, they can push it up as high as they want it to go, well past $30.

Please don't argue with me. You asked for an example, I provided one. End of discussion.

[jonebone]

How is this relevant in any way to the discussion? Nobody else bid, so you got it for slightly less than the BIN. All you did is wait to see if anyone else wanted it and it turns out they didn't. So you paid $20 for something that nobody else wanted. Congratulations? It also shows you don't really know how much things are worth if you are waiting for other bidders to help you figure it out. That seems like a dumb way to run a small reselling business.

The example was purely hypothetical, but thanks for taking offense. For someone so "knowledgeable", you sure seem to argue with absolutely anything you don't understand. Also, I'm just a collector who collects for free, not a reselling business.

[xelement5x]

The problem with this argument is that with the way eBay works, it is impossible to prove that your sniping works.

If you snipe successfully, you avoid driving the price up there will be no evidence that you succeeded in preventing additional incremental bids since your tactic actually worked.

However, you can see when you put in your max price and watch someone chip away at it by using the bid history. I have seen this happen enough times personally that I switched to last minute sniping at my max amount. It's frustrating to see this scenario happen:

"Okay, put in my max bid of $50, but the current high bid is only $15 with an only a bit left. It'll be a great deal if I get this at $15!"
..10 mins later
"Oh the person below increased their bid, now it's up to $25"
..3 mins later
"Now they bid it up to $28"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $31, still a good deal though"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $36"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $41.98, looks like this person really wants this"
...auction ends.
"Well I won the game at below my max price, but it's less of a good deal than it was starting out."

This is not EVERY scenario, just one I've seen play out so many time personally that I hate dealing with it. Now I just let the other person think they're in the lead for as long as they want until the last moment, then put in my max bid amount.

If it's not enough then oh well; if I win at a good price then wahoo! If there's a mix of the two with it being bidded up, c'est la vie; I've still got the item at a price at or below what I was willing to pay. But I will not just throw away the extra money by leaving it to chance and letting it incrementally be bidded up to my max price over a period of time.

[PROTOTYPE]

Haha, that's great. Yeah, this reseller did you a favor, that's just MK3 on PC and there is nothing rare about it. Be thankful you lost, this was a blessing in disguise.

The search feature here sucks, or I'd link you to the thread from the WTB forum where I sold a copy. Ignore the Starblade alpha manual, but here's the pics I still have in my photobucket.

http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae299/jonebone/103_9093.jpg
http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae299/jonebone/103_9094.jpg

Now that is the rare small case MK3 variant that PS1 collectors talk about. By a freak of luck, I had two, and I sold my duplicate. Good luck to anyone obtaining a copy, but I will never part with mine.

And what do you think your copy is worth?

[JSoup]

I often mussed, a few years back, about a theoretical biding system that allowed each user to only bid once. Each buyer is, therefore, encouraged to bid what they are willing to bid and what happens from there happens.

So many obvious problems with a model like that.......

[Bojay1997]

I'm not offended at all and I understand how a BIN and starting bid works. Your hypothetical just has nothing to do with sniping or proving it works or not. It also isn't the scenario the OP is talking about. All it shows is that if you gamble on a BIN by waiting till the last minute, you can get it for the starting bid. If nobody else is interested, you can accomplish the same thing by bidding immediately at the $20 level. If you wait, you run the risk of losing to somebody who hits the BIN and you have no chance to then snipe or do anything else. If to you the item is not worth the BIN or not something you really care about, I suppose that's a good way to operate. If, however, it is worth the BIN, you are taking a gamble and may very well end up not winning. Similarly, if you wait until the last minute to bid on a regular auction, you risk a side deal or a seller just cancelling the auction. Admittedly, you run those same risks even if you do bid, but I think it's probably less likely once an auction has a bid that such side dealing will occur.

The only two things that sniping accomplishes is possibly deterring shill bidding by the seller on auctions that don't have any other bids but yours and preventing other bidders from tracking your interest in auctions where there is a hidden gem that others haven't noticed. This seems to be a bigger problem lately as at least on Sealed Game Heaven, people are posting buyer's Ebay IDs and forcing buyers to wait until the last minute to bid so that others won't discover their hidden gems.

You can call it whatever you want, but you're running a small business which you then take the profits from to buy games for your personal collection. Justify it however you want, but that's how most small businesses run. The owners take the profits and buy what they want with them.


The example was purely hypothetical, but thanks for taking offense. For someone so "knowledgeable", you sure seem to argue with absolutely anything you don't understand. Also, I'm just a collector who collects for free, not a reselling business.

[understatement]

This seems to be a bigger problem lately as at least on Sealed Game Heaven, people are posting buyer's Ebay IDs and forcing buyers to wait until the last minute to bid so that others won't discover their hidden gems.

How is that happening? Like they'll take your ID after you leave feedback and tell others on the site to black list you or something?

[wiggyx]

[B]The psychology of course is that no one really knows what they're willing to pay and the intense moments at the end you end up putting in a little more, or a lot more like in that scene in War Horse.

I feel that there is a lot of truth to this.

I know what I'm willing to pay, that's for sure. But there are most definitely going to be people who get caught up in the moment and end up bidding well beyond what they had initially thought their max would be. It's happened to me in the past, and I imagine to many of us. That's just one more reason that I don't let myself get sucked into the last second bidding wars.




The only way to prove that you can get lower prices using sniping would be to get lots of data points and run some statistical analysis. That actually wouldn't be too hard on an item with a pretty steady price/value over time, it would just take a long time to mine out the data. I feel the evidence I mentioned above is pretty compelling, though.

That's what some of us are driving at; You CANNOT gather the sort of data that you're referring to. It's just not available to you, the seller, or other bidders.

No amount of "data points" that you are able to assemble would prove that sniping has given anyone an advantage.

I'm willing to bet that it does provide a small advantage in some instances, but none of us have any empirical data to prove or disprove that advantage or how often it occurs. All that we have are our own personal feelings and beliefs about it, and that's it.

Like I said before, it's just too much work and stress for me. I don't want or need anything on eBay so badly that I'm going to halt my life in order to watch an auction just so that I can put a bid in last second. I used to do it all the time. Setting an alarm for 3 am so I wouldn't miss out, interrupting dinner with my wife so I could place a bid, dropping whatever far more important thing that I could be doing in order to try and win an auction for slightly less money just seemed absurd to me. Plus, it RARELY ever worked. Most often I either lost or won at a price right around or at my max bid, which means that I totally wasted my time.



If that's really the auction, PROTOTYPE should be happy he lost if he only wanted it for MK3. That's the PC version of MK3, not the PS1 version.

LOL!

I wouldn't have paid 30 bucks for that lot. Nothing in there is worth much of anything. That's a 10 dollar lot IMO.


How is that happening? Like they'll take your ID after you leave feedback and tell others on the site to black list you or something?

Yeah, this confuses me as well.

Are you saying that they're tracking buyer or seller IDs? You cannot track the former, so I can only hope that you mean the latter. Still, I don't understand how keeping tabs on a seller helps you win an auction or that you're somehow "blocking" someone else. Please elaborate.

[Bojay1997]

How is that happening? Like they'll take your ID after you leave feedback and tell others on the site to black list you or something?

That's partially right. Over time, people have found the names of well known bidders through feedback on old auctions and you can use them in the advanced search on Ebay to track what that bidder is currently bidding on. For anyone that finds gems by exploiting listing mistakes or things that are not fully described in the auction description, it means that they have to wait until the very end to avoid drawing attention to their finds.

[wiggyx]

That's partially right. Over time, people have found the names of well known bidders through feedback on old auctions and you can use them in the advanced search on Ebay to track what that bidder is currently bidding on. For anyone that finds gems by exploiting listing mistakes or things that are not fully described in the auction description, it means that they have to wait until the very end to avoid drawing attention to their finds.

That's 150% pure crazy shit right there. Wow.

[Jaruff]

Why haven't you posted the link, like I asked on the first page? Also, as someone who has bought and sold this game myself, I highly doubt it would sell for $100. Not that much demand for this one.

You said this lot of 8 PS1 games went for $29? If it was just anything decent and non-sports, a reseller could have figured $5 a game for a maximum of $40. You a have provided no proof for me to believe that this reseller actually knows what he has. In reality, I wouldn't be surprised if he lists the MK3 at $15 or so, just pricing it equal to a normal MK3.

People give resellers too much credit. They know what's hot and what's talked about. A niche variant on PS1 is not something that most sellers know or even care about.

This is very true. I can't think of how many times I've picked up great Genesis/Sega CD/Saturn games at my local flea market simply because the regular reseller vendors are unfamiliar with the obscure items. I've also picked up some great Nintendo stuff to resell too, simply because the vendor pushed it aside as another "common" title. In my experience, most resellers know the Nintendo powerhouses and a few of the heavy hitters (Earthbound, Final Fantasy, etc). Anything else ... it's a hit or miss. Lots of generic pricing for other brands with the exception of big franchises like Resident Evil, Call of Duty, etc.

[understatement]

I'm willing to bet that it does provide a small advantage in some instances, but none of us have any empirical data to prove or disprove that advantage or how often it occurs. All that we have are our own personal feelings and beliefs about it, and that's it.

Like I said before, it's just too much work and stress for me. I don't want or need anything on eBay so badly that I'm going to halt my life in order to watch an auction just so that I can put a bid in last second. I used to do it all the time. Setting an alarm for 3 am so I wouldn't miss out, interrupting dinner with my wife so I could place a bid, dropping whatever far more important thing that I could be doing in order to try and win an auction for slightly less money just seemed absurd to me. Plus, it RARELY ever worked. Most often I either lost or won at a price right around or at my max bid, which means that I totally wasted my time.

I can understand this as the reasoning for not sniping over just out right denying that it could work even if only every once in a while.


That's partially right. Over time, people have found the names of well known bidders through feedback on old auctions and you can use them in the advanced search on Ebay to track what that bidder is currently bidding on. For anyone that finds gems by exploiting listing mistakes or things that are not fully described in the auction description, it means that they have to wait until the very end to avoid drawing attention to their finds.

That’s some Guerrilla warfare sniping right there and yea that’s way too much of a waste of time IMO. If I happen to stumble across something not listed correctly I might try to snipe it but I not going to scan for people that scan for miss-listed items or look for miss-listed items myself.

[PROTOTYPE]

I didn't want to pay a lot for it either, only wanted the ps1 mortal kobat 3 for the jewel case version only... As it is hard to find in the wild.As to how much is too much is? To one man's garbage is one man's treasure!:)

[Aussie2B]

Like I said before, it's just too much work and stress for me. I don't want or need anything on eBay so badly that I'm going to halt my life in order to watch an auction just so that I can put a bid in last second. I used to do it all the time. Setting an alarm for 3 am so I wouldn't miss out, interrupting dinner with my wife so I could place a bid, dropping whatever far more important thing that I could be doing in order to try and win an auction for slightly less money just seemed absurd to me. Plus, it RARELY ever worked. Most often I either lost or won at a price right around or at my max bid, which means that I totally wasted my time.

There is a middle ground, you know. I generally try to wait as close to the end as possible, but I don't wake up in the dead of night or cancel my plans for anything important. If it's not convenient for me, then I'll bid a few hours before the end or what have you. I still find that preferable to bidding days in advance.

[understatement]

There is a middle ground, you know. I generally try to wait as close to the end as possible, but I don't wake up in the dead of night or cancel my plans for anything important. If it's not convenient for me, then I'll bid a few hours before the end or what have you. I still find that preferable to bidding days in advance.

Hell, half the time I bid from my phone I have my ebay app. set to go off five minutes before the end of an auction if I have the time I wait it down and if I don’t I might put something in then and hope that no one ups it too much, takes no more time than a text message. Personally I like being there in the last few minutes but you can remove that all to gather with a sniping site like Cornelius references.

[Cornelius]

That's what some of us are driving at; You CANNOT gather the sort of data that you're referring to. It's just not available to you, the seller, or other bidders.

No amount of "data points" that you are able to assemble would prove that sniping has given anyone an advantage.


What I'm suggesting with a statistical analysis is that if we looked at enough auctions for the same item and then looked at the subset of those auctions with a single unique bid in the last minute we could determine if there was a difference in the final price (on average, of course). I believe that with a large enough sample we would be able to see a significant difference between the two groups. This is perfectly possible with the data we have available, and the actual analysis would be pretty simple. Going through and picking it out would take a long time, though, and is not worth anyone's time.

[The 1 2 P]

However, you can see when you put in your max price and watch someone chip away at it by using the bid history. I have seen this happen enough times personally that I switched to last minute sniping at my max amount. It's frustrating to see this scenario happen:

"Okay, put in my max bid of $50, but the current high bid is only $15 with an only a bit left. It'll be a great deal if I get this at $15!"
..10 mins later
"Oh the person below increased their bid, now it's up to $25"
..3 mins later
"Now they bid it up to $28"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $31, still a good deal though"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $36"
..1 min later
"Now they bid it up to $41.98, looks like this person really wants this"
...auction ends.
"Well I won the game at below my max price, but it's less of a good deal than it was starting out."

This is not EVERY scenario, just one I've seen play out so many time personally that I hate dealing with it. Now I just let the other person think they're in the lead for as long as they want until the last moment, then put in my max bid amount.

You just described exactly why I only snipe on ebay. During the first few years I had an account that scenario you listed happened atleast 50-70% of the time I bid on something. Me and Lockshawl(who got out of collecting a few years ago) use to always bid demo disc up much higher than they would have went for had one of us waited until the last few seconds. But eventually thats what I did. He kept bidding as soon as he saw something he wanted and I waited until the last 10 seconds and won every single time.

Today it's the samething for atleast half the stuff I want. Theres always atleast two dudes in an endless bidding war that I never take part in. I wait until the last few seconds and swoop in. Sometimes I win, sometimes I don't. And while I do understand what others were saying earlier about who ever bids the highest will win regardless of when they bid, the fact still remains that in atleast half the items I bid on I end up winning them for much less because I choose to wait until the last second to bid instead of getting into a bidding war with someone who thinks they are going to get a special prize for being the highest bidder the longest.

[wiggyx]

What I'm suggesting with a statistical analysis is that if we looked at enough auctions for the same item and then looked at the subset of those auctions with a single unique bid in the last minute we could determine if there was a difference in the final price (on average, of course). I believe that with a large enough sample we would be able to see a significant difference between the two groups. This is perfectly possible with the data we have available, and the actual analysis would be pretty simple. Going through and picking it out would take a long time, though, and is not worth anyone's time.

Still, you cannot calculate the max bid for the winner, and that's a fairly important chunk of this equation. A HUGE part of the argument is that sniping saves money. In fact, it's the ONLY argument. Without that component we have no idea whether the winner saved money or not by sniping.


For shits and giggles, here's the data from the completed listings of non-BIN loose Earthbound carts on eBay. EB is a hot title right now, so I feel that it's a good example of a game that will see lots of bidding/sniping.


(In chronological order from ending most recently to least recently)

152.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (12 bids) unique
238.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (34 bids) not unique
150.00 winning bid 3 days prior (21 bids) unique
90.00 winning bid 1 hour prior (2 bids) unique
176.00 winning bid in last 30 seconds (24 bids) unique
123.99 winning bid in last 30 seconds (16 bids) not unique
174.21 winning bid in last 30 seconds (16 bids) unique
154.00 winning bid 5 hours prior (14 bids) not unique
150.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (34 bids) unique
140.00 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
154.51 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
149.35 winning bid 2.5 hours prior (30 bids) not unique
152.01 winning bid in last 30 seconds (17 bids) unique
139.39 winning bid 30 minutes prior (8 bids) not unique
132.50 winning bid 30 minutes prior (11 bids) not unique
191.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (43 bids) not unique
207.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (29 bids) not unique
170.50 winning bid 6 hours prior (35 bids) not unique
192.50 winning bid 1 hour prior (18 bids) not unique
154.51 winning bid in last 30 seconds (3 bids) unique
163.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (10 bids) unique
174.06 winning bid in last 30 seconds (9 bids) unique
179.50 winning bid 5 minutes prior (29 bids) not unique
152.50 winning bid 8 hours prior (26 bids) not unique
202.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (12 bids) unique
152.50 winning bid 3 days prior (10 bids) unique
172.50 winning bid 4 hours prior (4 bids) unique
172.50 winning bid in last 30 seconds (19 bids) unique
148.15 winning bid 1 hour prior (22 bids) unique
167.50 winning bid 1.5 days prior (12 bids) not unique


Sniped - $2727.31 / 16 = $170.46 avg

Non-Sniped - $2150.89 / 14 = $153.64 avg

Granted this is a small sample size, but it definitely illustrates that sniping, at least with this title and this cross section, is not at all effective. In fact, the average price is 9% higher for the snipers.

Now this is actual empirical data, not guessing or speculation. Is it rock solid proof that sniping is useless? No, of course not. Is it an indicator that sniping for hot, retro video game titles isn't nearly as effective as many here seem to believe? I would say so.


Also, $59.99 BIN complete with box and instructions. Fucking lucky bastard.

Sonofabitch! (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item256f5e0166&item=160782221670&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=mMQqYhCoPyoYBS6YhVPTnfl%252FXQs%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc)

[Scissors]

Also, $59.99 BIN complete with box and instructions. Fucking lucky bastard.

Sonofabitch! (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item256f5e0166&item=160782221670&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=mMQqYhCoPyoYBS6YhVPTnfl%252FXQs%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc)


It appears the seller backed out and relisted for $329.99 (http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-EarthBound-Complete-Box-Set-Very-Rare-Super-Nintendo-1995-/160782730134?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item256f65c396#ht_500wt_1131), which someone else bought immediately. It seems that buyer then resold it for $700 (http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item3cc535ff57&item=261006688087&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=Tk14yBOcCo7sK6f%252BSrxqoAfZ45U%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc#ht_500wt_1105).

[wiggyx]

It appears the seller backed out and relisted for $329.99 (http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-EarthBound-Complete-Box-Set-Very-Rare-Super-Nintendo-1995-/160782730134?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item256f65c396#ht_500wt_1131), which someone else bought immediately. It seems that buyer then resold it for $700 (http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item3cc535ff57&item=261006688087&nma=true&pt=Video_Games_Games&rt=nc&si=Tk14yBOcCo7sK6f%252BSrxqoAfZ45U%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc#ht_500wt_1105).

Oh damn!

I wasn't really trying to look into any more than I did. I was already pissed that I missed it. Guess I shouldn't worry about it too much though ;)

[Jorpho]

It appears the seller backed outWait, what? How can one do that without incurring negative feedback?

[understatement]

Wait, what? How can one do that without incurring negative feedback?

he did get negative feedback.

http://www.digitpress.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=5040&d=1335501893

I don't get his reply at all.

[wiggyx]

His reply is total BS. He's just trying to make it sound as if it's not his fault that the transaction went to shit.

Just look at this guy. Screams total D-bag.

http://i.ebayimg.com/00/$%28KGrHqF,!jEE5!jlvqOVBORTCSD6Mw~~_7.JPG

[xelement5x]

The problem with the Earthbound data is that for me personally, sniping on highly public auctions doesn't tend to pay off. On a copy of a Mega CD game where I'm maybe competing with <5 other people it'll work fine, on an auction where there are possibly thousands watching each copy of Earthbound it doesn't make sense to me.

Highly visibility and sought after items on eBay almost always reach the average price, sniping only works for me on less high profile stuff.

However, with a high profile item it makes sense to reach the average price, or just a bit below average, sooner rather than later to discourage people from bidding on that item. Reach the "average price" early and most bidders will just move onto the next similar listing.

For example:

Earthbound auction 1 gets bidded up to $150, and since there are always plenty of copies around people stop watching that auction and turn their attention to Earthbound auction 2 that ends 3 days later than the first. Because everyone's attention is now focused on the second auction the first one doesn't get any additional bids and ends "low" at 150.

Let say the second auction stays at around $100 up to the last day because everyone is waiting to snipe it. At the last second, everyone puts their bid in and it jumps to $180. Perfect example of sniping backfiring, but it only backfires because there are a ton of people watching the item.


Either way it's all conjecture since you can't completely understand the players for every auction, but you do the best you can based on the evidence.

tl;dr - Sniping works best (but not always) for me on a low profile item.

[JSoup]

I don't know, I've never had a problem getting something on ebay by just tossing up what I'm willing to pay and calling it a night. But, then again, I'm normally buying low profit things anyway. Editions of books for this collection, a card I'm missing from that collection. Junky stuff that you hardly find people fighting over.

[understatement]

There’s no real way to track a data point there are just too many variables. Just saying that less bids equals sniping won’t work, just because item A) has only 2 bids and item B) has 32 bids doesn’t mean item A) was sniped. Say item A) starts at $100 and item B) starts at $1, more than likely item B) will be the one targeted for sniping even if it has 25+ bids and is up to $70+ at the end.

About the only way I can see to do it would be getting two people (with money to burn) one would only snipe and the other would bid early on (like 4+ days remaining) and making a list of 100+ items both must buy within a set time. Even then people would say the pool of buyers needs to be bigger but how are you going to find that many people to buy a ton of crap they don’t want?


The more I think about this the more it sounds like it would be a great Mythbusters episode.