Poll results - HARDWARE RELIABILITY OF PS2, XBOX, AND GC

[lendelin]

The Q asked in the three polls: Did you have a serious problem with your [PS2, Xbox, GC] hardware?

As of now, the results are as follows:

PS2
Serious problems: 24 (52%)
No serious problems: 22 (48%)
Total # of cases: 46

Xbox
Serious problems: 7 (29%)
No serious problems: 17 (71%)
Total # of cases: 24

GameCube:
Serious problems: 2 (5%)
No serious problems: 37 (95%)
Total # of cases: 39

Total # of cases (all three polls): 109

Statistical limitations, strenghts and results:

1) Participants weren't randomly chosen, which results in an increased likelihood of bias for all socio-demographic data. The same bias is reduced for the target population, however, it is still very likely.

2) Because of 1) the poll isn't representative of the general population and/or the target population of game system owners, therefore the poll isn't generalizable.

3) The number of cases is low. However, a difference of means test which is appropriate for case numbers from around 25 to 100 showed across the groups and for the pair of groups within the target population statistical significant difference. The differences found exclude population difference based on sampling error. However, the commonly agreed upon statistical significance level of .5 cannot be tested due to the low number of cases.

4) The poll gives certainly a trend of hardware reliability. The found differences between the three systems are 1) substantial, and 2) not coincidental. The PS2 is certainly much more prone to perceived hardware problems than the Xbox and the GameCube. The qualitative posts for the PS2 which explained at least some of the problems, indicate clearly more serious hardware problems compared to the two other systems. The GameCube proved to be by far the most reliable piece of hardware.

6) Although the polling question wasn't specified (meaning of "serious", hardware") and didn't distinguish between different kinds of problems, this doesn't distort the trend across the systems at all. Potential misunderstandings, exaggerations, different assumptions, bad feelings for a specific system etc. are present for all three polls. It is unreasonable to assume that owners of a specific system are more intelligent, hate another system more, and/or are more or less prone to the above mentioned perception problems.

7) There is a bias in favor of the PS2. The PS2 was one year earlier released than the GC and the Xbox. Hardware problems are corrected over time for the subsequent versions of a system. If we assume that early childhood flaws of a system are corrected, the more recently released systems are disadvantaged. The fact that the oldest system, the PS2, turned out to be the most problematic piece of hardware by far, underlines the overall trend.

8) The target population is part of a videogame website dedicated primarily to video game collectors. It is reasonable to assume that videogame collectors are over-represented in the sample compared to the general population. Videogame collectors in general have experience and an incentive to treat game hardware carefully and appropriately. The findings of a PS2 prone to serious hardware problems is therefore even more troublesome. (unless we assume that the more careless non-collectors are clearly over-represented in the "serious problems" category of each system.)

9) Two of the systems (PS2, Xbox) have DVD and CD play capability, while the GC is only able to play game discs. The troublesome findings for the PS2 still hold up. 1) Compared to the Xbox, the PS2 still proved to be more unreliable, 2) If a combo ‘game player/DVD player' is offered as an incentive to sell a system and in all likelihood results in more sales, problems with the DVD player as part of the system can certainly count as a serious hardware problem.


Well, draw your own conclusions. :) The polls together with accumulating reports from friends, game mags, and store employees make the problem-ridden PS2 hardware certainly much more than just a rumor or a distorted picture of anecdotes, in my opinion. It's one significant step above anecdotal evidence for sure.

Hey, thanks for participating! :) 109 is much more than I expected, and statistically you can certainly work with such a number of cases. Pretty bad results for the PS2, eh?

[Shadysmurf]

Actually.. for that to be an accurate poll you would need to poll the same amount of people for each system, and the "serious" hardware damage on the ps2 is 9/10 times Disc Read Error while inall is a big problem it usaully just means the voltage is off, the lazer postiting is off, or you need need a whole new lazer and is not that hard for sony to fix.. Serious Damage sould be described as needing a new powerpack, a harddrive crash, a controller port breaking etc..

[IntvGene]

7) There is a bias in favor of the PS2. The PS2 was one year earlier released than the GC and the Xbox. Hardware problems are corrected over time for the subsequent versions of a system. If we assume that early childhood flaws of a system are corrected, the more recently released systems are disadvantaged. The fact that the oldest system, the PS2, turned out to be the most problematic piece of hardware by far, underlines the overall trend.


Isn't this the opposite? The PS2 has been around the longest and is the oldest. If I bought a PS2 on day one, and Sony fixed it free of charge, I still would vote YES for "Did you have a serious problem with your PS2 hardware?"

Also, have you accounted for the general wear and tear on a system? If the PS2 has been around the longest, shouldn't we expect it to have the most problems? Since it has been around the longest, and has the most number of systems out there, should we also expect more problems from multiple users? If there are more PS2s, and naturally, more used PS2s re-sold to users again, I don't think that you are measuring accurately "equal system use" between them. PS2s would have experienced more use in the same time.

[lendelin]

Actually.. for that to be an accurate poll you would need to poll the same amount of people for each system.

Nah, in every poll you have variations in the number of cases, and different numbers for each variable. If people fill out a questionnaire, they get tired at the end of it, and just don't fill out the last couple of Qs. The same number of cases isn't a reliability problem.


and the "serious" hardware damage on the ps2 is 9/10 times Disc Read Error while inall is a big problem it usaully just means the voltage is off, the lazer postiting is off, or you need need a whole new lazer and is not that hard for sony to fix.

I'd reagrd this as serious hardware probs, if it falls out of warranty...you have to pay for it.

[lendelin]

[quote=lendelin]7) There is a bias in favor of the PS2. The PS2 was one year earlier released than the GC and the Xbox. Hardware problems are corrected over time for the subsequent versions of a system. If we assume that early childhood flaws of a system are corrected, the more recently released systems are disadvantaged. The fact that the oldest system, the PS2, turned out to be the most problematic piece of hardware by far, underlines the overall trend.


Isn't this the opposite? The PS2 has been around the longest and is the oldest. If I bought a PS2 on day one, and Sony fixed it free of charge, I still would vote YES for "Did you have a serious problem with your PS2 hardware?"

quote]

your point isn't bad. The longer a system is on the market, the more people have a prob with it. However, doesn't the early childhood flaws of systems outweigh the life time probs of a system? Imagine you'd have asked the same Qs one year after the PS2 release, the GC owners and XBox owners also only one year after the release, would you seriously expect a different result??


Since it has been around the longest, and has the most number of systems out there, should we also expect more problems from multiple users?

See above...and...these are percentages! Your argument only holds if you assume that there are more PS2s sold and resold than XBoxes and GCs. I seriously doubt it, on the other hand...I din't have any data about it.

[jonjandran]

Also, have you accounted for the general wear and tear on a system? If the PS2 has been around the longest, shouldn't we expect it to have the most problems? Since it has been around the longest, and has the most number of systems out there, should we also expect more problems from multiple users? If there are more PS2s, and naturally, more used PS2s re-sold to users again, I don't think that you are measuring accurately "equal system use" between them. PS2s would have experienced more use in the same time.

The problem is you are saying " more use " when you haven't even determined the amount of use each unit received.

The people in the gamecube poll might have used their gamecubes 10 hours a day and the PS2 people only 1 hour a day.

That's why with ALL polls they are subjective and not truly scientific.
But you have to admit they work and help to give most people a good guage on what to buy and when to buy it , etc . ( For instance after reading the PS2 poll most people wouldn't risk buying an older PS2 , and for good reason )

All in all , I say it was a poll well done........

[Sylentwulf]

skimmed the topic.... heres my biggest problem (don't know if it's been addressed, so don't hurt me)

Gamecube versus PS2

I like both systems, and I'm not picking on the gamecube, but the fact IS, that I'm sure each PS2 unit out there get's a LOT more play than each gamecube unit out there (Sure, not each and eveery one, but overall) There just aren't as many games out for the gamecube.

AND, now that F-zero GX has caused problems, I'm sure over the next 6 months, the amount of gamecube errors people are going to have will probably rise QUITE drastically since nintendo has even admitted the problem, it must be pretty widespread.

Of course, the PS2 Hardware IS VERY INFERIOR in quality, don't get me wrong, I'm just saying, that gamecubes numbers will probably rise due to F-zero, and even if they don't the hardware isn't pushed nearly as much, causing less problems, thus evening out the curve a little bit :)

[lendelin]

Isn't this the opposite? The PS2 has been around the longest and is the oldest.

...additionally, if the life time of a system would be the most important reason for reported hardware flaws and problems, how would we explain the striking difference between the GC and XBox which were released around the same time??

[jonjandran]

I like both systems, and I'm not picking on the gamecube, but the fact IS, that I'm sure each PS2 unit out there get's a LOT more play than each gamecube unit out there (Sure, not each and eveery one, but overall) There just aren't as many games out for the gamecube.


I think you're looking at that from an adult perspective.

I have 2 kids and almost every system made, and the only one they play is the Gamecube. Several hours a day if they can.
And I know a lot of younger people (8-14) with PS2's and Gamecubes, and they play their Gamecubes a LOT more.

So I guess it depends on how you look at it . :hmm:

[zmeston]

N/A

[RoboticParanoia]

AND, now that F-zero GX has caused problems, I'm sure over the next 6 months, the amount of gamecube errors people are going to have will probably rise QUITE drastically since nintendo has even admitted the problem, it must be pretty widespread.

GX is causing problems? Nintendo has admitted to it? Is this info on the Web somewhere?

-- Z.

That's what I'm wondering as well. :hmm:

[lendelin]

That's why with ALL polls they are subjective and not truly scientific.Nah, they are scientific, and one thing is always subjective, the interpretation of the results; but this goes for qualitative analyses as well, you have the real world phenomena, and then you interpret them as objectively as you could according to scientific standards.

Ideally :) this would be a questionnaire with 50 or so items. You could ask for age, gender, all kinds of socio-demographic data. Then the time of purchase of a system, when the prob occured, what kind of a prob (offering 6 probs and 'others'), how long someone plays on average, if the system is used by someone else (kids, with age), ...and so on, you had varaiables a plenty.

THEN you could run sophisticated regression amnalyses with around 500 cases in total, and you could determine which factor/s (playtime, age of system, age of palyer, ....) has/have themost impact on hardware flaws, even broken down according to different problems and at the same time controlling for all the other potential factors. The possibiliries are plenty, it would be paradise. :)

However, this is a straightforward YES/NO poll which ignores all these different possible variables. But that's not bad. We have polls of approval rates of politicians, simple percentages, without getting into heavy reasoning/reason problems.

The limit of the poll is it's non-generalizability to the entire population of the US, but it was never intended as such :)...and ideally we would have 300 cases which makes it more reliable.

...but was this poll undoubtedly gives you is a TREND which is valid for system owners who frequent this website and were willing to participate in this poll. The results are so clearcut...it's unavodable to see a clear trend unless you close your eyes. :)

The thing is...youi have to stay within the limits of the poll. You can't argue this way or the other about aspects the poll just doesn't cover. It might be that playtime plays a big role for hardware flaws, but then, can we assume that the PS2 is more often played than other systems? It might be that for average playtime for all systems would show no difference in hardware flaws. But then, wouldn't we expect from a system that it works properly very often played?

Reasonable is to argue that there are factors which question the results, and good points were made, and I responded to them. But to be honest, I can't see a single factor which would inherently bias one system, or a factor which would tell me that tthe results are merely a statistical coincidence.

...but then I have often overlooked things in my life although I tried hard, so, there might be something which questions the entiore poll result. :)

[spoon]

I believe anotherfluke posted a topic about it around 2 weeks back. From what I understand, Nintendo will fix it free of charge. If it is under warranty or not.

Link to topic
http://www.digitpress.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=18698&highlight=fzero+gx

[Anonymous]

I believe anotherfluke posted a topic about it around 2 weeks back. From what I understand, Nintendo will fix it free of charge. If it is under warranty or not.
For the record, NO, F Zero GX does NOT cause problems with the Gamecube. What it does is expose an internal flaw in a few (very small number, we're talking hundreds) Gamecube systems because of the way it uses the hardware. There was a similar issue with Star Wars: Rogue Leader locking up on the Hoth level, and Eternal Darkness stuttering during cut scenes.

Keep in mind that the games do not CAUSE the issue, they only expose it. And I'd be more than willing to bet that Sony and MS have similar issues, but we don't have anybody who works there to tell us about it.

Sorry Zach, I doubt you'll ever find this info on the web or in a verifiable news source. But they are real issues, trust me.

[zmeston]

N/A

[Anonymous]

With ED, the method that Silicon Knights used to stream their movies (I believe they pulled data and the movie info at the same time) taxed the drives in the GC, and the models that had the dirty diode in them tended to breathe their last while attempting such a feat. With SW:RL:RSII (whew!), the game was designed on prototype hardware (it was used as a demo back when the Dolphin was a Card in a PC), and some issue with the way the final hardware was done led to a part overheating more than expected. I don't know specifically what the deal is with F Zero, aside from it stems from the programmers eeking performance out of the system.

This is all 'hearsay' of course, and I make no official claims on behalf of Nintendo, nor do the sources I hear this information from. To get any more specific, I'd have to speak to people that I don't normally have access to without a reason, and I probably wouldn't post the info on a public board anyways (sorry DP).

[SoulBlazer]

Somebody else posted that Nintendo was willing to fix these 'defective' GC's free of charge. Is that true?

[jonjandran]

That's why with ALL polls they are subjective and not truly scientific.Nah, they are scientific, and one thing is always subjective, the interpretation of the results; but this goes for qualitative analyses as well, you have the real world phenomena, and then you interpret them as objectively as you could according to scientific standards.


I disagree . In order to be truly scientific there would have to be to many questions asked. There are just to many variables as we have seen from just these 3 polls you've taken.

For instance : How much was each system played ? What version is it ? What kind of environment was it kept in ? Was it sufficiently cooled? Did you use 3rd party accessories ? Did you use it mainly for games or dvd's ? Was it ever dropped ? Was a liquid ever spilled on it ( cat piss ? ) ? ETc , etc , etc , etc,

No polls aren't very scientific. Science looks for the facts and with polls there is just no way to get All the facts. Polls are very subjective.

[Anonymous]

@SoulBlazer - Yeah, that was me. If your Nintendo randomly restarts (stops, goes back to the title screen for F Zero) while playing F Zero, then yes, you can call Nintendo and they will fix your Gamecube.

[hydr0x]

of course these results are not scientific in any way, BUT they clearly show that there are differences between the consoles and that it seems to be in favor of the gamecube/nintendo

my question is, would you guys participate in a real survey? i mean, it really shouldn't be a problem to make a more scientific survey that has results which really show something

[lendelin]

zmeston:

I do feel there are MORE PS2 bashers than GC and Xbox bashers, as there's an unusually strong resentment of Sony amongst the hardcore segment; perhaps not surprising when you consider it's the company that drove Sega out of the hardware biz, and is trying to do the same with Nintendo. But that's another topic.

That's true. No argument there. It lost in a meaningless poll.
Dang, I gave in into your unreasonable, heavily biased assumption that 20% of all guys who reported PS2 problems lied, are PS2 bashers, and that the PS2 supporters of this website are all honest and wouldn't dream about doing something like this to the GC and Xbox. You admitted that such a dreamworld assumption doesn't change the overall trend, and the PS2 still looses in a landslide....and you still call it a meaningless poll and close your eyes???

Look, every assumption about the participants affect all systems roughly equally. You can say that all guys on here are dumbasses or geniuses or a mix of the two, honest or liars or a mix of the two, biased or objective or a mix of the two, perceived or misperceived problems, ....everything affects all systems roughly equally, and therefore doesn't change the trend when we compare the systems. It might be that SPOON who changed his vote becasue he had a serious prob with his XBox is a liar and Xbox basher and only owns a PS2; but I give him the credit that he's not; and if there are 10% of them on here, there is no reason to believe that the PS2 is more affected by it than the Xbox or GC. You escape into fantasy assumptions in order to save an irrational belief.


We agree to disagree on the relevance of the poll results, I'm afraid; you think they mean something, but I think they mean nothing.

WHY??? I didn't hear any serious argument about it, not one.



50% of the pollees (and we all know how painful that can be) claimed issues with their PS2. That's ludicrous. That's a Coleco Adam number. That's Wal-Mart calling up Sony and saying "What the FUCK?!" That's nationwide recall. I cannot take that percentage seriously, not for a nanosecond.

It's ridiculous to assume that 50% of all PS2s are returned for repair. It's ridiculous to assume that 50% of all PS2s fail to perform and break down. People manage if they have a prob with it. I know two guys who use lil dust blowers and dust out their PS2s every four weeks. I know one guy whose PS2 broke down and sits at home, he's not very interested in games and didn't buy a new one. Guys adjust the lil laser thingie and put it a notch up. Some guys return it for repair within the warranty or if it fails outside the warranty. Some guys get replacement units. Some guys don't use it as a DVD player becasue the two early versions were bad players. I don't know numbers, you don't know numbers, let's stick to what we know...namely that much more gamers have serious problems with their PS2s than GC owners and Xbox owners. Nothing more, nothing less.

Additionally, I thought I made sure that no generalizations can be drawn from the poll to the US population and that it isn't representative.. You cannot draw the conclusion that 50% of all PS2 owners in the US experienced serious hardware problems. We can say, howver, that the likelihood of PS2 owners to experience seroius hardware probs is 25 times higher compared to the GC owners for the participants of this poll.

No Internet poll is representative. If NBC puts up a poll about approval rates of Powells' foreign policy, you can not say this is represenattive of the US population, even if ONE MILLION people participate. You get only people with Internet access, are using the Internet, are interested in politics, and visit the NBC website. A Fox poll might look different. However, if you have randomly chosen participants, and you have "only" 1200 people responding, this is representative of the ENTIRE population of the US with a error margin of plusminus three percent. That's how powerful polls are based on randomly chosen units of analysis.


*I* don't believe there's a conspiracy; I was talking about another people who feel that Sony has "swept this [the hardware problems] under the rug." But if PS2s really take a shit as often as some people seem to believe, a rug the size of Brazil couldn't hide such a problem.

Firms have a policy of intentional denial. You don't need such a big rug. :) Overall people are satisfied with the PS2, it has overall the best and varied game library. PS2 owners don't rebel on the streets with signs "PEE ESS TWO...BU - HU- HUH". I don't know if Wal-Mart called, I don't know what the repair rate is, etc. and neither do you. As I said, people manage. Let's stick to the poll and what we know.


I get the feeling that we're going to go 'round and 'round until I declare that I've "seen the light,"

We're not going round and round, you refuse to accept facts and flee in unrealistic assumptions in order to hold onto a very irrational belief. I don't know why you do that, it's not a tragedy for me that the PS2 hardware seems to be more flawed than the Xbox hardware and the GC hardware.


but the only thing I'm confident of at this point is that the failure rate for PS2s has decreased over time, which is hardly a shocking relevation. Was the failure rate of early PS2s abnormally high? You have to define "abnormal."

That's besides the point. It's irrelevant what the "normal" failure rate is for a system (whatever failure rate means), early versions or later versions. Don't get stuck to look only at one system. What this poll tells you is not a development over time for the PS2, what this poll tells you is that owners of the PS2 experienced way more serious hardware problems than Xbox owners and GameCube owners...and this includes early versions and later versions of the PS2, GC and XBox.

I don't know what the normal failure rate is for game systems, TVs or speaker systems. It's irrelevant as an argument for or against the findings which is a comparison across systems.


In another thread, I assumed that of the 60 million PS2s Sony has manufactured to date, 50 million have been purchased and are being used. How many of those would have to be defective to be considered an abnormally high rate of failure? One million PS2s? That seems like a lot, but it's just 2%, which seems pretty damn reasonable to me. What would you consider the point at which an expected rate of failure becomes abnormally high?

I don't know what failure rate means, and I don't know how many PS2s are returned, I don't know how many PS2s are bought in order to replace a defective system. It's irrelevant as an argument for or against the poll results. What we know however is that in all likelihood the defective rate for the PS2 is higher than for the GC and Xbox.


EDIT: Looked up your profile -- now I understand your spirited defense of polling.

I was socialized in a Political Science which emphasized qualitative analyses, not quantitative analyses. The belief in numbers is exaggerated, and I'm not a number cruncher although I have done my share of it; but the results of the poll gives you clear indicators way beyond anecdotal evidence, unless you assume that the gamers on this website fall easily like sheep for exaggerated tales of the media ignoring their own experiences.

[lendelin]

hydr0x:

of course these results are not scientific in any way, BUT they clearly show that there are differences between the consoles and that it seems to be in favor of the gamecube/nintendo


Well, the poll is as reliaabe as any other Internet poll, however with a very low number of cases. (which result in a lot of ststictic distortion probs, eg. the significance of outliers, etc.) You're absolutely right about the trend they show, I think the substantail difference between the GC and PS2 is enormous and can't be ignored.

jonjandran:

I disagree . In order to be truly scientific there would have to be to many questions asked. There are just to many variables as we have seen from just these 3 polls you've taken.

For instance : How much was each system played ? What version is it ? What kind of environment was it kept in ? Was it sufficiently cooled? Did you use 3rd party accessories ? Did you use it mainly for games or dvd's ? Was it ever dropped ? Was a liquid ever spilled on it ( cat piss ? ) ? ETc , etc , etc , etc,



hydr0x:

my question is, would you guys participate in a real survey? i mean, it really shouldn't be a problem to make a more scientific survey that has results which really show something

To have an itemized poll of around 40 variables would be paradise, but it would only work with around 300 respondents. The problem is that you end up with extremely low numbers for every variable if only 40 people particiapte.
It would become meaningless if you have TWO guys who report a blue disc scratch prob and relate it to a high degree of playing time for one, and the other is 12 years old. Then truly the reasoning this way or the other don't hold up becasue it can be casued by mere coincidence. It becomes unrelaibel in every way.

So...with these number of cases we cannot go into distinctions, or very carefully go into causal (cause-effect) relationships, as great as this would be.

A starightforwrd YES/NO poll is best in this case. 40 respondents isn't bad at all, and it gives you clearly a trend in particular if you can compare it to other systems.

[jonjandran]

Hey , I think you're getting it all wrong.
I'm not complaining about your poll or polls in general. I think it's the only way to go so the public can make informed decisions.
It's just like you said though, it's up to individuals to look at the polls and make an informed decision.

Have you heard the commercial that say's " 1 in 3 people who had accidents and were tested for drugs , tested positive for marijuana."
Now think about that for a minute. Why do you think they were tested for drugs ? Obviously , the police officers involved noticed the peoples behavior or the stupidity of the accident and drew a conclusion that they were on drugs. That's why they were tested , and of course the malority tested positive for marijuana , as it is the easiest drug to get.
So like I said, and you said to. : We have to look at the polls and make an Informed decision because they aren't very scientific most of the time.

[Sylentwulf]

@SoulBlazer - Yeah, that was me. If your Nintendo randomly restarts (stops, goes back to the title screen for F Zero) while playing F Zero, then yes, you can call Nintendo and they will fix your Gamecube.

So, then, yes, F-zero is causing problems with defective gamecubes.

[Anonymous]

So, then, yes, F-zero is causing problems with defective gamecubes.Sorry SW, I didn't mean to make it sound like you were wrong, but the way you say it makes it sound like the game is the reason the Gamecube is broken, and that can lead to false rumors, and ultimately, lost sales for Nintendo.

[Sylentwulf]

Sorry SW, I didn't mean to make it sound like you were wrong, but the way you say it makes it sound like the game is the reason the Gamecube is broken, and that can lead to false rumors, and ultimately, lost sales for Nintendo.

No problem, I had assumed it was a known issue when I posted, so I didn't state the specifics :)

I was actually surprised people weren't aware of it really.

[zmeston]

N/A

[SoulBlazer]

We could always try suing Sony under the Freedom of Information Act. LOL

Then we'll see how fast it will take for the case to get thrown out. :D

[lendelin]

I don't know what failure rate means, and I don't know how many PS2s are returned, I don't know how many PS2s are bought in order to replace a defective system. It's irrelevant as an argument for or against the poll results. What we know however is that in all likelihood the defective rate for the PS2 is higher than for the GC and Xbox.

I think that's a fair assumption as well. My question at this point is how MANY PS2s are failing, and if that amount should be considered abnormally high. Those numbers will never be known, at least not to you and me. And so we're right back where we started, with some people claiming an epidemic of defective PS2s, and no proof to back up those claims -- just anecdotal evidence that PS2s break down more often than GameCubes or Xboxes. Sigh.

-- Z.

Don't waddle into a swamp of sophism. :)

We are not at the starting point. Your initial argument was that there are more defective PS2s simply because there are much more PS2s out there, and everything is just based on anecdotal evidence mixed in with misperceptions. That's not where we are anymore. The total number argument is dead, and so is the anecdotal evidence talk. Looking at the poll, and looking at the posts for the polls, there is no doubt that the PERCENTAGE (!!) of defective PS2s is way higher than the percentage of defective Xbox' and GCs. If that's "epidemic" (who claimed that?), I don't know, you don't know; but if roughly 50% of guys report serious hardware probs with their PS2s, then your alarm bells should go on, and you should accept it, in particular if the numbers for the other systems are lower, and in the case of the GC DRAMATICALLY lower.

If you want to ignore experiences of two friends, that's ok; if you want to ignore experiences of ten friends; that's ok, if you want to ignore experiences of 50-109 people on this board who don't know you and have no reason to lie, that's ok; if you want to ignore reported problems of game systems in game mags, that's ok; if you want to go back to your total number argument and discard everything as anecdotal evidence, that's ok; if you want to strongly believe what you always believed, that's ok. If you want to ignore better arguments and go back to your starting position, that's dangerous, but fine. I just don't get it, I never understood irrational positions of that proportion. :)

[lendelin]

Hey , I think you're getting it all wrong.
I'm not complaining about your poll or polls in general. I think it's the only way to go so the public can make informed decisions.
It's just like you said though, it's up to individuals to look at the polls and make an informed decision.

Have you heard the commercial that say's " 1 in 3 people who had accidents and were tested for drugs , tested positive for marijuana."
Now think about that for a minute. Why do you think they were tested for drugs ? Obviously , the police officers involved noticed the peoples behavior or the stupidity of the accident and drew a conclusion that they were on drugs. That's why they were tested , and of course the malority tested positive for marijuana , as it is the easiest drug to get.
So like I said, and you said to. : We have to look at the polls and make an Informed decision because they aren't very scientific most of the time.

I didn't wanna contradict you, just pointed out obstacles which can't be overcome. Sorry if it came out the wrong way. :) Your suggestions are right on target, that's ideally what should be done.

You're absolutely right! Make five question marks behind every lil newspaper article about a poll. Always look at what was EXACTLY asked, and much more. I make five question marks behind every research report in the headline news, about politics or health. Most journalists don't have the knowledge to look at the statistics, and report overstated summaries, and even worse, don't even use common sense which would help a lot examining the research.

If you do statistical analyses, you can be biased from step one to the last step, from data collection to interpreting the results; and if academics have a political agenda (like Craig Anderson who writes constantly about violent videogames) they turn into idiots, to put it diplomatically. :) Always have the courage to use your own brain, use common sense, and don't trust "experts" and be impressed by titles. Be impressed with intelligence and good arguments.

The example you give would be typical of a biased sample, and the results are worthless and should end up in a waste basket. However, if everyone involved in an accident was tested, no matter what, independently from the subjective selection of policemen, THEN you have a valid results. (if the drug testing was also correct and then you still have to interpret the results) You're absolutely right not to trust such a headline unless you really know how exactly the research was conducted. Nonsense is everywhere, in particular in local and federal politics where everyone has an agenda and the nonsense makes headlines.

[lendelin]

That's why with ALL polls they are subjective and not truly scientific.Nah, they are scientific, and one thing is always subjective, the interpretation of the results; but this goes for qualitative analyses as well, you have the real world phenomena, and then you interpret them as objectively as you could according to scientific standards.


I disagree . In order to be truly scientific there would have to be to many questions asked. There are just to many variables as we have seen from just these 3 polls you've taken.

For instance : How much was each system played ? What version is it ? What kind of environment was it kept in ? Was it sufficiently cooled? Did you use 3rd party accessories ? Did you use it mainly for games or dvd's ? Was it ever dropped ? Was a liquid ever spilled on it ( cat piss ? ) ? ETc , etc , etc , etc,

No polls aren't very scientific. Science looks for the facts and with polls there is just no way to get All the facts. Polls are very subjective.

jonjondran, I'm sorry, I misunderstood your first criticism from way back. ;) just one correction, polls are scientific. There are lots of different kinds of polls, and it depends what you wanna do with it statistically. Usually, if you wanna really work with one and go into cause - effect realationships, a questionnaire consists of 30, 50, 100, or 150 items. (like the ones you listed) Hey, you can even have categories for dog piss, cat piss, and squirrel bites :) In the end it's a financial problem, to conduct surveyes is expensive. The more is on there, the more expensive it gets usually. (eg paper costs, mail costs, Data decoding and punching in the numbers take much longer)

Correctly and unbviased done surveys are great, but in the end, I always believed that the interpretation of the data isn't so much different than interpreting a poem. :) There is an obsession with numbers and lil graphs in the US, and some people forget that no matter what we do, verything is subjective becasue we are human beings. If you think a Q is "important" and sart research, there you have your subjective value driven resesrch. What's important or not is selective, subjective, becasue human beings function selectively, from memory (which helps us survive) to observations.

[hydr0x]

Usually, if you wanna really work with one and go into cause - effect realationships, a questionnaire consists of 30, 50, 100, or 150 items. (like the ones you listed) Hey, you can even have categories for dog piss, cat piss, and squirrel bites :) In the end it's a financial problem, to conduct surveyes is expensive. The more is on there, the more expensive it gets usually. (eg paper costs, mail costs, Data decoding and punching in the numbers take much longer)


mh i don't think a survey has to be that expensive, of course companies do spend an awful lot of money on such things but it can be done cheaper. let's be more specific: let's say "we" (whoever we means) would think about what questions and so on the survey has to contain to deliver good results. this would cost nothing (unless we would count our time spend) and i don't think we would do a worse job than most of the so called experts (cause many of them are experts for surveys but don't know a shit about the topic). Than, someone would transfer this survey into html/php, which should be no big deal and shouldn't cost anything. Upload it to dp's webspace and make sure a lot of people get it per mail (you don't need a real representative mass, like 100 students, 100 workers... cause it only matters how much and if they play and this could be made as a question in the survey). No costs until now (besides manpower, but as this would be a hobby-project, that wouldn't count). What else would have to be done? well, the decoding and interpretation which of course is a lot of work. Perhaps someone would be able to make a script to automatically do this.

You know, chances are good that i'll have to do something like this for my study sometime, so a little experience would be good ;) (i know that there are a lot of sites that offer such services, but never could i pay those)

[Duncan]

The belief in numbers is exaggerated, and I'm not a number cruncher although I have done my share of it; but the results of the poll gives you clear indicators way beyond anecdotal evidence, unless you assume that the gamers on this website fall easily like sheep for exaggerated tales of the media ignoring their own experiences.

Great statement. Very well argued overall, actually. :D

Duncan :D

[lendelin]

Usually, if you wanna really work with one and go into cause - effect realationships, a questionnaire consists of 30, 50, 100, or 150 items. (like the ones you listed) Hey, you can even have categories for dog piss, cat piss, and squirrel bites :) In the end it's a financial problem, to conduct surveyes is expensive. The more is on there, the more expensive it gets usually. (eg paper costs, mail costs, Data decoding and punching in the numbers take much longer)


mh i don't think a survey has to be that expensive, of course companies do spend an awful lot of money on such things but it can be done cheaper. let's be more specific: let's say "we" (whoever we means) would think about what questions and so on the survey has to contain to deliver good results. this would cost nothing (unless we would count our time spend) and i don't think we would do a worse job than most of the so called experts (cause many of them are experts for surveys but don't know a shit about the topic). Than, someone would transfer this survey into html/php, which should be no big deal and shouldn't cost anything. Upload it to dp's webspace and make sure a lot of people get it per mail (you don't need a real representative mass, like 100 students, 100 workers... cause it only matters how much and if they play and this could be made as a question in the survey). No costs until now (besides manpower, but as this would be a hobby-project, that wouldn't count). What else would have to be done? well, the decoding and interpretation which of course is a lot of work. Perhaps someone would be able to make a script to automatically do this.

You know, chances are good that i'll have to do something like this for my study sometime, so a little experience would be good ;) (i know that there are a lot of sites that offer such services, but never could i pay those)

Hydrox, I'll respond tomorow, I just came home, it's after two, and I'm a bit tired! As a class project, this would be great!

[lendelin]

Everyone of you overlooked the most important result of the poll!!

Finally, after all them years and speculations a plenty, we can without any doubt and confidently say that 100% of gamers who don't own a PS2 are subscribed to Martha Stewart Living!! That's a lot of subscribers, and will help Martha to go through those difficult times.

Also, 100% of non-XBox owners like to feed squirrels in parks, that's a revolutionary finding. Eat THAT, Alan Greenspan, and adjust your fiscal policy!

[hydr0x]

hrhr, ok i will check the topic ;)

i've thought about questions for such a survey already, more q than you'd think

[lendelin]

LECTURE ALERT! :)

Finally I have the time to respond, hydr0x :)

For a class project, great idea. You should have some knowledge, though, about it from a course or read something basic about statistical methods in social sciences from survey design to running stsistics; however, you can just try and run into probs which isn't so bad either. :)

1. Response rates/number of cases of surveys are very important to run statistics in a meaningful way. (see below) Mail response rates are about 25-30% (not sure what email response rates are, but I'm convinced they aren't higher); that means if you want 100 responses, you have to send out approximately 300 to 350 mails. (A colleague had once a response rate of 15%, the entire project failed right there) For certain statistical methods (simple regression analysis), 100 responses are not a lot, especially if a survey is heavily itemized (see below); 300 responses would be ok, but that means you have to send out around 1000 emails.

2. If you do a survey, never ever put important Qs at the end of the survey, always put it in the middle!!! People are lazy and get interrupted, they don't fill it out completely; for Qs at the end of a survey you loose around 20-30% responses. (which exaggerates additionally the number of cases/response rate problem) I had surveys returned which were only filled out for the first 4 QS out of 30. (was really helpful. :)

3. For the wording of the Qs, use SIMPLE terms, and very basic grammar! Phrase it in a neutral way, never use leading Qs. That's easier said than done. I remember certain Qs about labor unions in Germany (was described by Noelle-Neumann) which weren't intentionally leading at all, and you got a difference of 20%. Negative and positive connotations of certain terms are very important.

For THIS poll, eg., the Q wasn't leading; however, my first post was leading associated with the Q. (zmeston will jump on that. :) I reported that game mags, retailers, and friends tell about PS2 hardware probs, that's leading right there. If you introduce an "opinion" right away, people tend not to go against an opinion which is reported by others and is "out there" already. The impact isn't significant...for one reason only...you have to scroll up for the poll, and there was only a Q. Still, in it's entirety, there was certainly a bias against the PS2.

4. The more itemized a survey is (the more Qs/variables you have), the more case numbers you need. Let's say you introduce distinctions of hardware problems, and you have 40 participants, some of the hardware probs would end up with two cases. Just looking at the raw data, someone can say: ‘Look, guy, these are TWO people, and you wanna draw big conclusions?'...and he would be right. The error margin would be very high, and it becomes statistically insignificant, and even worse, substantially insignificant. You run statistics, and the red flag of ststistical significance level of 3.0 would pop up, that means that there is a likelihood of 30% that you're findings are merely based on a sampling error. 0.5 (5%) is the commonly agreed upon level (5% is the small portion to the extreme right and left of a Gaussian normal distribution curve); although sometimes you can end up with 1.0 (statistical insignificance) and identify a substantial difference (looking at the substantial values, b or beta for regression), 3.0 makes it meaningless.

If in doubt and expecting not a lot number of cases, reduce the items (meaning distinctions, number of Qs) although you might end up doing less with the survey. On the other hand, sometimes you can regroup itemized variables and can create ONE which contains former distinctions, but that again takes some time.

Note: Sometimes it's the other way around, you identify a statistical significance, but the substantial difference is neglectible, which goes for most surveys of opinions about abortion when it comes to the difference between men and women.

6. There are lots of little problems about decoding. It has to be done in the right way, otherwise certain variables become meaningless, and furthermore, screw up the entire statistics. Additionally, decoding AND punching in the data are very time consuming! My advice: if you think it takes 2 hours for something to do, you'll end up with 8 hours. Quadruple the estimated time for everything you do, and you're right on target. :) The same goes for statistics you run. One of the most intelligent guys in the social sciences told me once that for every published regression analysis around 40 have to be run, and that's exactly right. :)

I created three data sets in my life, and after the last one I said to myself, "never again." :) It's time consuming. To work with existing data sets is way easier. That's why an instructor in a class let you work with an existing data set first.

7. A sample doesn't has to be necessarily representative, most aren't anyway. Just look at the raw data of the general population, identify roughly who and what is over-represented for what you're doing. It's important because it influences the interpretation of your results, you have to know the limits of the data, and also the opportunities. Sometimes it's an advantage to have a biased sample. E.g., for this poll collectors are over-represented, and you have to ask yourself how that influences the result

This is what first come to mind in a very general way. Pretty high standards, don't be discouraged, for a class project lesser standards are used. It would be very interesting to do something like that, the key is...get as many respondents as possible. The more, the better. You can work with less, it all depends what kind of ststistics you wanna use. 40 case numbers are ok for a simple strenght relationship (like Lambda), eg. between playing time (grouped into 6, gardually from 0 to 50 hours a week and above) and hardware problems in general. This would give you a positive or negative relationship (eg. the more you play, the more hardware probs occur), and, more importantly, would give you with a number the strength of the relationship. (this way you could conclude if the impact of play time on hardware probs can be regarded significant or not)

Also, never be biased looking at the results. I certainly was for this poll becasue of the heated debate with zmeston. :) I never mentioned the pretty bad result of the Xbox, didn't i? I focused on the PS2, but...29% perceived serious hardware probs for the Xbox isn't so nice either....and taking the high error margin into account, well, the difference between the two might be not so much after all. The trend is still there, but...:) ...and this big ‘but' opens a lot of new Qs. This was intentional, but sometimes we are biased even if we don't want to. Always try to contradict yourself, that's a good way to become "objective".

Now let me know what kind of Qs you thought about, that is when it gets really interesting. :)