Will anybody ever challenge Microsoft, Sony and Tendo?

[Anthony1]

It's really sad to me, that we aren't ever going to see the kind of battles that we saw in the past. Remember when the SNES and Genny were at the top, and 3DO and Atari came out of nowhere to try to topple them?

Of course the Jaguar and the 3DO system had no chance at toppling the SNES and the Genny, but at least you had these companies that would throw their hat into the ring and go for it. Back in the day, we had SNK, Atari, Matsushita and NEC all trying to compete with Sega and Nintendo. Now all we have is Nintendo and Microsoft trying to keep pace with Sony.


Look at a year like 1994. How many freaking systems were fighting each other in 1994?

1. Super Nintendo
2. Sega Genesis
3. TurboDuo
4. Panasonic 3DO
5. Atari Jaguar
6. Neo Geo CD
7. Sega CD
8. Sega 32X


8 different freaking platforms. 9 actually if you consider HU cards and CD's to be different platforms for the Duo and TG-16.

But now, we will only have 3 freaking competitors. That's it. Just 3. Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony.

I honestly can't see anybody else trying to come into the mix. If anything, I see Nintendo making their last home console, with their next system.

And by 2010, there actually probably won't even be any more physical game systems.

The horrah!!!!!!!!

[tabbs]

. . . . mmm . . . .

1994 . . . warm, fuzzy memories . . .
Going across the street to my friend Marco's house, he always had the latest systems . . . comics were big then too . . . society lost its values once people started taking video games and comics for granted . . . We will rise again!!

[buttasuperb]

Sears will make a next gen console, mark my words. LOL

[Flack]

Uh, hello, Phantom???

{/sarcasm}

[Achika]

Why do you say no one will challenge them? In the late 70's/early 80's, did anyone think Atari would be challenged? Could people fathom back then that Atari would fall?

Nintendo rose, Sega rose, Sony, Microsoft....they have all risen. Some will fall. New competition will come. This is they way the world works.

Kinda like cars....Ford, Chevy, Buick, etc. Companies come and go, profit and go broke. No one can predict the future, but at the same time it's not fair to say "it will never happen again." 100 year later we're still driving when we could be riding horses.

[Sotenga]

Basically, nothing can last forever. The sad truth of it all is that a century later, it is likely that no one would know a thing about the NES. An even sadder thing is that I'm a teenager in this damned modern era, when I long to have been a child of Generation X so I could be a lively young adult in the 90's, when the great console war was raging. I was just a moronic little kiddie when this was going on. *sigh* :(

Well, it happens. At least I can learn of what once was from you guys. I imagine that growing up through the 80's had its disadvantages. Well, you guys hold on to those memories while I make my own. :)

[Kid Fenris]

Achika's got the proper perspective on this, I think. After all, three years ago, we'd have been saying "Will anyone ever challenge Sony, Sega, and Nintendo?"

It's also fair to point out that the eight-way war of 1994, though interesting from an industry standpoint, didn't really create a wealth of great games. The 3DO was initially bogged down by the same FMV mediocrity that sullied the SegaCD, the Jaguar had few decent games (or games at all) in its first year, and the 32X was brushed aside by Sega before it went anywhere.

Now, look at the list . . .

1. Super Nintendo
2. Sega Genesis
3. TurboDuo (an import-only thing for most of 1994)
4. Panasonic 3DO
5. Atari Jaguar
6. Neo Geo CD
7. Sega CD
8. Sega 32X

Each of those eight systems had some fun titles, but if you wanted to enjoy all of them, you'd have to shell out over a thousand dollars for the lot. Today, you'd need only half that amount to get the Xbox, GameCube, PS2, and even the GBA. We might not have as much competition nowadays, yet it's much easier on the wallet.

And though I miss obscure and strange Japanese systems like the PC-FX and FM Towns Marty, I've also got to admit that today's market allows the American scene to support a lot of fun Japanese releases that would've been left overseas in 1994.

[Darth Sensei]

But now, we will only have 3 freaking competitors. That's it. Just 3. Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony.



Wait, you're forgetting the NGage. LOL

[zmweasel]

I imagine that growing up through the 80's had its disadvantages.

Um... not really, no. It was the Best Decade Ever. Atari, Nintendo, arcades, TRON, big hair, MTV when it played videos (and with real music instead of hip-hop), Ronald Raygun smacking down the Evil Empire, and on and on. If and when I invent a time machine, I'm going to 1984 and never, ever coming back.

-- Z.

[RoboticParanoia]

I imagine that growing up through the 80's had its disadvantages.

Um... not really, no. It was the Best Decade Ever. Atari, Nintendo, arcades, TRON, big hair, MTV when it played videos (and with real music instead of hip-hop), Ronald Raygun smacking down the Evil Empire, and on and on. If and when I invent a time machine, I'm going to 1984 and never, ever coming back.

-- Z.

I want to be the brotha to Big Brother.

Anyways, I predict that in the next 10 years that Sega, Atari and Namco will try to come out with consoles. Wouldn't that be a dream?

[Sniderman]

Will anybody ever challenge Microsoft, Sony and Tendo?
:hmm: Are you serious? Well let's look at the past, shall we?

The late 70s/early 80s: Will anybody ever challenge Atari, Coleco, Magnavox, or Mattel?

Mid 80s/early 90s: Will anybody ever challenge Nintendo, Sega, or Atari?

Mid 90s to today: Will anybody ever challenge Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft?

Tomorrow: Will anybody ever challenge Nokia, Zenith, or Sanyo?

Trust me, no one is permanent n this biz. Atari was untouchable for years. Then splat. Nintendo looked to be a powerhouse. The Playstation beat them up pretty badly. Today and tomorrow? Who knows. If M$ was able to enter the vidgame field, don't be surprised that you'll be able to buy the Gateway Cowtown 2000 game system in 2007.

[SoulBlazer]

Namco very well COULD try to make a console. I perdicted back in 1992 that Sony would make a console within five years. LOL

[Slipdeath]

Will anybody ever challenge Microsoft, Sony and Tendo?
:hmm: Are you serious? Well let's look at the past, shall we?

The late 70s/early 80s: Will anybody ever challenge Atari, Coleco, Magnavox, or Mattel?

Mid 80s/early 90s: Will anybody ever challenge Nintendo, Sega, or Atari?

Mid 90s to today: Will anybody ever challenge Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft?

Tomorrow: Will anybody ever challenge Nokia, Zenith, or Sanyo?

Trust me, no one is permanent n this biz. Atari was untouchable for years. Then splat. Nintendo looked to be a powerhouse. The Playstation beat them up pretty badly. Today and tomorrow? Who knows. If M$ was able to enter the vidgame field, don't be surprised that you'll be able to buy the Gateway Cowtown 2000 game system in 2007.
sorry to break it to you but where in 00's now, not that mid 90's

[Anthony1]

You guys try to bring up the fact that when Atari was king, nobody thought that anybody could challenge them, and then when Nintendo was king, that nobody could challenge them. And then Sony was king, and..... and......



Well, here is the deal. That line of thought is simply flawed. When Nintendo came out of nowhere to restart the gaming industry, it was a totally different environment in the industry. When Sega stole Nintendo's thunder with the Genesis, it was a totally different environment in the industry. When Sony came out of nowhere to jump into this industry, it was a totally different environment.

Things have changed in this industry. Sorry to say that, but you will never see another situation with more than a handfull of companies running the show like we have now.

The stakes are just too high now.

You have Microsoft jumping into the industry, and they are having a hard time, and they are one of the biggest and most powerfull companies on the planet Earth. They have billions of dollars to throw around at this, and it takes a company as huge as Microsoft, to try to get into this market. Sony is entrenched in the market, and even though they aren't as huge as M$, they are still damn big. And all the have to do is try to keep their mindshare alive. Nintendo still has billions of dollars in the bank, so they can stay in the game, even though it woud be wiser for them to do what Sega did.

I'm sorry, I just don't see any company that would be big enough to enter in this market, that would have any chance of being sucessfull. Microsoft made sense, but that's about it.

To try to come into this market now, you would need to have roughly 5 billion dollars to throw at this. I just don't see any company that would have that kind of money to throw at this, decide to do that.

It ain't gonna happen. Sorry. Those days will never be seen again.

[Duncan]

Ahem. Here's a recent news release from GameSpot:


Sony slump sinks game stocks

Japan's electronics colossus announces 91 percent drop in game division's operating profits, sending U.S. publishers' and sellers' shares sliding.

Sony Corp. surprised the game industry this morning when it announced a 25 percent drop in its second-quarter profit. The electronics colossus also reduced its yearly operating profit forecast by 23 percent to 100 billion yen ($918 million) with a net profit forecast of 50 billion yen ($459 million).

Even more surprising was that Sony's games subsidiary, Sony Computer Entertainment, was one of the biggest reasons behind its stunted income.

SCE's sales fell 35.6 percent in Q2 2003, slashing the unit's profits 91 percent. The company cited research and development costs for their next-generation microprocessors as the main culprit, but also blamed sluggish PlayStation 2 sales in America. The one bright spot for the PS2 was Europe, where sales increased due to a competitive price drop, perhaps foreshadowing a similar move in the U.S. market.

Sony's Q2 report can be read via a PDF on Sony's investor-relations site. In Japan, Sony's stock closed down 5.04 percent to 3,960 yen ($36.13), ahead of the profit announcement, and fell further in after-hours trading.

Word of the reduced PS2 sales sent U.S. game publisher and sellers' stocks sliding as well. GameStop and EBgames' shares fell 2.17 and 4.83 percent, respectively, while Atari and Take Two dropped 3.2 and 4.24 percent, also respectively. THQ sunk 3.2 percent when Sony first announced the news, but had mostly recovered by press time.

However, it was Electronic Arts' parade that the Sony announcement really rained on. Late yesterday, the company had announced a both 53 percent increase in its quarterly profits and a forthcoming stock split. However, the Sony announcement pushed EA's stock down 3.72 percent to $98.05.

Ironically, EA's announcement contained further ill omens for Sony. The company slashed its PS2 software growth forecast to a range of 15 to 20 percent, a reduction of 10 percentage points. The company also reduced its estimates of 2003 North American PS2 console sales by 1 million, to 8 to 9 million units.

By Tor Thorsen, GameSpot [POSTED: 10/23/03 12:10 PM]

So, assuming that Nintendo's upcoming "major new product announcement" is something big (like a GameCube 2 or something), there may yet be room to break Sony's current strangle-hold.

And no, I don't think the N-Gage is going to do it.

Duncan :D

[Achika]

Anthony1:

Like you think our thinking is flawed, so too we may think your thinking is flawed.

This "market" is only 3 generations old (classic, neo-classic, modern), and already we have seen a crash. Who knows, if they keep putting out crap, we will get another crash. If we do see another crash, it will be cheaper to start up again rather than jump in.

Back then, yea, videogames were big too. Who thought back in 1983 that Sony would make a console? Who knew who Bill Gates or Microsoft was in 1975? I think anyone who plays their cards right has the potential to make enough money to build the type of system they want. Microsoft is not a half century or century old company like Sony and Nintendo respectively. Look what Bill Gates did; he started up a company in 1975 and 28 years later he is the richest man in America. (http://www.forbes.com/2003/09/18/cx_ld_0918gates400s.html) Atari was a start up company and in less than a decade they kick started what we know to be videogames today.[/url]

[Dr. Morbis]

This reminds me of an article I read in a magazine once, a long long time ago. I don't remember specifics, but apparently the head of the US patent office wanted to close up shpp in the 1890's because he truly believed that everything that could possibly have been invented by humans, had already been invented at that time. And this was in the 1890's!!!

I GUARANTEE you that one of the major players in the console industry 10 years from now will be either a company we've never heard of, or one that does not produce vg hardware right now.

[Anthony1]

Anthony1:

Like you think our thinking is flawed, so too we may think your thinking is flawed.

This "market" is only 3 generations old (classic, neo-classic, modern), and already we have seen a crash. Who knows, if they keep putting out crap, we will get another crash. If we do see another crash, it will be cheaper to start up again rather than jump in.

Back then, yea, videogames were big too. Who thought back in 1983 that Sony would make a console? Who knew who Bill Gates or Microsoft was in 1975? I think anyone who plays their cards right has the potential to make enough money to build the type of system they want. Microsoft is not a half century or century old company like Sony and Nintendo respectively. Look what Bill Gates did; he started up a company in 1975 and 28 years later he is the richest man in America. (http://www.forbes.com/2003/09/18/cx_ld_0918gates400s.html) Atari was a start up company and in less than a decade they kick started what we know to be videogames today.[/url]


I understand what you are trying to say, but comparisons to past history just don't work anymore. That's the problem. Back then, we didn't have a 9 billion dollar industry. Back then, we didn't have some of the largest companies in the world, Sony and Microsoft, in control.

You simply can't look at past history and compare it to this. It's apples and oranges. I think you are underestimating the fact that for a new company to enter the frey, they would need about 5 billion dollars to simply enter the ring.

That is just to enter the damn ring, with no guarantee of success, and in fact, a very likely chance at failure, with billions of dollars lost in the process.

Back when NEC entered the market in 1987 (japan) and 1989 (U.S.), it was a completely different ballgame. When Atari and 3DO entered the market in late 1993, it was a completely different situation. Companies like that have no chance whatsoever to seriously compete in this modern market.

It's truly unfortunate. I wish it wasn't this way, but unfortunately this is the way it is. That's why Sega bowed out of the battle. They knew that they would need to spend a ton of money to develop a system, then another ton of money to launch it, then antoher ton of money to market it, and another ton of money to continue to support it.

The only way you could see a new competitor coming into the market, would be for a consortium of companies to combine their efforts and enter th frey. Like for Intel, Electronic Arts and Comcast to combine on new special cable box device that also doubled as a TIVO type device and a totally state of the art next generation game machine. But even under that make believe scenario, you are taling about E.A. and Comcast and Intel spening incredible sums of money, just to do the research required to even see if it's feasable to try something like that. Then they would have to spend incredible sums of money in research and development, to make this special cable box. And they would have to do all that, just to even think about competeing with Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo.

Companies woud look at this industry, and they would simply decide that the price of entry into the industry would simply be too great, and the risk of failure would be way to high. They would look at the risk/reward ratio, and decide that it simply wouldn't be a prudent idea.

What I see happening about 10 years from now, is for even more consolidation in the industry. I look for either Sony or Microsoft partnering with Nintendo, and the other one buying Sega, and then I see these two companies working out deals with the cable and satellite compaines, to have their technology incorporated into the latest set top boxes that these companies rent to their subscribers.

Ten years from now, we will be paying a monthly fee to a cable company to download our games into the giant hard drives that are built into these new set top devices.

[YoshiM]

You guys try to bring up the fact that when Atari was king, nobody thought that anybody could challenge them, and then when Nintendo was king, that nobody could challenge them. And then Sony was king, and..... and......



Well, here is the deal. That line of thought is simply flawed. When Nintendo came out of nowhere to restart the gaming industry, it was a totally different environment in the industry. When Sega stole Nintendo's thunder with the Genesis, it was a totally different environment in the industry. When Sony came out of nowhere to jump into this industry, it was a totally different environment.

Things have changed in this industry. Sorry to say that, but you will never see another situation with more than a handfull of companies running the show like we have now.

The stakes are just too high now.

You have Microsoft jumping into the industry, and they are having a hard time, and they are one of the biggest and most powerfull companies on the planet Earth. They have billions of dollars to throw around at this, and it takes a company as huge as Microsoft, to try to get into this market. Sony is entrenched in the market, and even though they aren't as huge as M$, they are still damn big. And all the have to do is try to keep their mindshare alive. Nintendo still has billions of dollars in the bank, so they can stay in the game, even though it woud be wiser for them to do what Sega did.

I'm sorry, I just don't see any company that would be big enough to enter in this market, that would have any chance of being sucessfull. Microsoft made sense, but that's about it.

To try to come into this market now, you would need to have roughly 5 billion dollars to throw at this. I just don't see any company that would have that kind of money to throw at this, decide to do that.

It ain't gonna happen. Sorry. Those days will never be seen again.

Actually, Nintendo didn't come out of nowhere. They had the Famicom in Japan that was doing quite well and they wanted to expand. They even asked Atari to market it and they said no. Nintendo, a name that was already known thanks to Donkey Kong, Mario Brothers and such, came in at the right time and played their cards right.

Atari also didn't come out of nowhere either as they never left. The 7800 was pretty much dead but they attempted to come roaring (no pun intended) back with the Jaguar that was too little too late and no substance from a company with a beat up reputation.

The 3DO and CDi were somewhat surprising but not. "Multimedia" was the buzzword and everything had to be it. Unfortunately the public didn't quite know what "multimedia" was. CDi: is it a game machine or is it a computer-like info machine that plays movies? Note: it didn't help that the CDi was sold in the comission zone of the Sears electronics department while all the games were in the kids clothing department. 3DO had some good looking titles at first but the price and the confusion (like the CDi-is it a game machine or is it something more?) didn't help. The platform really came into it's own later on in its life but the PSX and Saturn were right around the corner.

Sega fought themselves. There were so many add ons to make the Genesis do more but the killer software wasn't there to make the new stuff worth while.

TurboDuo was pretty much a last ditch effort by smashing the TG-16 and its CD addon. It was cool but it was still a TG-16 (in most people's eyes) that cost too much that didn't have the games they wanted.

Neo Geo. High Prices for system and software. Need I say more?

Sega and Nintendo came out of that part of time because they were firmly entrenched and branded. Even though it made that period of time interesting I even knew then that most of that stuff wouldn't go over well. That time just proved that not the market isn't big enough for more than 2 or 3 companies.

[ubersaurus]

Will anyone ever challenge Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo?

Well, duh. And eventually they'll kick one of em off the mountain. No matter how big the industry becomes, it'll be like anything else-empires, car companies, computers, hell, even household appliance manufacturers. Something always comes along, challenges the ones already in place, and comes out on top. Trust me-5, 10, 15 years down the line, at least 1 of the big names today will be footnotes.

Looks to me like you just wanted to make a thread to give your opinion @_@

[thegreatescape]

Namco very well COULD try to make a console. I perdicted back in 1992 that Sony would make a console within five years. LOL

I was thinking the same thing. They could totally pull it off. 8-)
Namco are the masters of launch titles, have experience in creating controllers (negcon, jog-con), and would certainly hurt sony if they went against them. Im sure there are quite a few people that bought playstations/ps2 for the gun games, of which the best 2 series are made by Namco and easily beat other consoles gun library.

Perhaps an AMD cpu with an ATi video chip, x-box style :-P

Its a stretch, but they do have experience and can seriously hurt the big 3 by making it a big 3 and a killer 4th (i like Namco A LOT) LOL

[zmweasel]

It ain't gonna happen. Sorry. Those days will never be seen again.

I'm sidin' with A1 on this issue. He's absolutely right that the costs of entry into the hardware market have become prohibitively expensive for all but a handful of corporations in the world -- and, as proved so deftly by Microsoft and Nokia in the past two years, there's no guarantee whatsoever of success.

Namco's home division made $360 million in its last fiscal year, making it the 16th largest publisher in terms of revenue. They absolutely do NOT have the financial resources to launch a console.

Activision made $864 million in its last fiscal year, the fourth largest publisher in terms of revenue. And yet it's hurting because of the fading Hawk franchise and the floppage of its "O2" spin-off line. Licensed games (64 percent of its output!), not creativity, keep it at the top of the heap. You think it's interested in entering the hardware market?

The only third party that can afford to dabble in hardware is EA ($2.48 billion in its last fiscal year), but it seems perfectly content to establish special relationships with hardware manufacturers (Sega, and now Sony). And who can fault it for doing so? How many consoles have come and gone in the 21 years EA has been around?

Also, EA just announced a serious downward revision of sales estimates due to Sony's PS2 woes. You think it's interested in entering the hardware market?

A1 is also prescient about set-top boxes. Direct data delivery is the future. Hell, on the PC-gaming side, it's already the present: demo downloads, patches, et cetera. Same deal with the Xbox and its downloadable content. (And we haven't even touched upon emulators...)

More and more, we live in a world of pure digital content, and physical doohickeys -- carts, CDs -- are just a price-boosting middleman between you and that content.

That being said, it's going to take a LOOOOOONG time before the majority of the U.S. is broadband-equipped, so storage media will be around for a while yet, albeit in ever-smaller quantities.

-- Z.

[thegreatescape]

I guess it was just wishful thinking. :( I always thought Namco was bigger than that, but i guess its a quality vs quantity thing.

BTW zmweasel, you rock 8-)
Everytime i read one of your posts I learn like 10 new things :D

[zmweasel]

You just made my year. Thank you very much for the kind words.

-- Z.

[jonjandran]

I guess it was just wishful thinking. :( I always thought Namco was bigger than that, but i guess its a quality vs quantity thing.

BTW zmweasel, you rock 8-)
Everytime i read one of your posts I learn like 10 new things :D

I think the same thing to. Only I can't get through half of his post before I fall asleep. LOL
Just kidding zmweasel : you do indeed ROCK :D

[ventrra]

Matsushita (Panasonic) had a chance to jump into the video game business years ago with the M2, but strangely didn't. However, they still might, at some point, decide to get into it themselves.

I suspect that there are a number of other companies that could still consider jumping into the fray.

[slurpeepoop]

Matsushita (Panasonic) had a chance to jump into the video game business years ago with the M2, but strangely didn't. However, they still might, at some point, decide to get into it themselves.

I suspect that there are a number of other companies that could still consider jumping into the fray.

Whoo, that was a billion dollars well spent. :eek 2:

Matsushita would be one of the few companies that could enter the industry as a contender. Maybe Cisco, and a few others.

Even with killer content, another company would be very hard pressed in this industry. Nintendo, the king of killer video games, has a brand familiarity that spans generations, and they're struggling to keep up, let alone make headway. They've used every "guaranteed blockbuster" license at their disposal this last year, and they are still the undisputed king of portable gaming, and they still posted a loss for the first time in 40 years.

Sony is looking to take away their handheld market, as they promptly did to the console market (with some help by Nintendo's poor judgement), and if the PSP gains a foothold in the handheld market, Nintendo is in serious trouble.

Like I wrote in another forum, Nintendo used to be the biggest kid on the playground, but now that the industry has moved up to high school, Nintendo is the smallest kid around, and it's starting to show.

Considering Nintendo literally has had every advantage in the book, minus a magic bottomless bag of money that Microsoft, and Sony to a lesser extent, currently enjoy, and they're seeing the first signs of being outgunned in their own market.

[zmweasel]

Heh! And thanks for keeping me humble, JJ.

-- Z.