We r n the middle of the worst hardware drought in 20 years!

[Anthony1]

Now, first let me say, that I know that nobody is really complaining about this. So by calling it the worst hardware drought in 20 years, is making it sound much more dramatic than it really is.

I understand that.

But I was wondering if anybody else noticed that since the NES system was released back in 1985, we have not had as long a drought in console hardware released since the drought between the NES and TG-16, as we do right now.

Both the XBOX and GameCube were released in late 2001, and the earliest that we will see any new "console" hardware, is late 2005. That is a 4 year drought. And that is "IF", we get a new console in 2005. There isn't any absolute guarantee of that. Although it is likely.

But anyways, this is the first time, that we will have 3 Christmas seasons come and go with no new consoles. The first time since the years of 1986, 1987 and 1988. Those 3 years were the last time that we had that long of a period of no new console systems lauching.

In 1989, both the Turbo and Genny launched. In 1991 the Super Nintendo launched. Then in 1992 the Sega CD launched. In 1993 the Jaguar and 3DO. 1994 saw the arrival of the 32X. 1995 saw the arrival of the Saturn and Playstation. 1996 saw the arrival of the N64. In 1997 we didn't have any console launches, then in 1998, we saw the arrival of the Sega Dreamcast. Then in 2000, we saw the arrival of the PS2, and late 2001 saw the arrival of the Cube and XBOX.

So if you look at the last 20 years of console gaming, this three year drought that we are in the middle of, will tie the 3 year drought from the time the NES released, to the time the TG-16 released.

I think we are seeing the end of the era of having alot of different companies competeing.

[crashdummycow01]

yes 2005 if the next time we'll see a Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft console.. maybe.. since nintendo has said they're releasing they're next console earlier than scheduled.. also i'm guessing you're not counting the fact that the GBA SP was just released, N-Gage, some other handheld that i dont remember, PSP and a new nintendo handheld this year.. so i'm guessing ur not counting handhelds..

also a new company may come out with a console that we just havent heard about yet.. i've seen 2 links to new consoles.. one by Infintium labs.. or something... and another by Apex i believe.. New companies could pop outta no where and release a console.. although if they are gonna release one, we should prolly hear about it soon...but if i were a new console making company.... i would release my console sometime in the 3 years between the current and the next generation of consoles.. that way i would be the only new console on the market.. and i might have a chance..

[Flack]

Nintendo Console History:

NES - 1985
SNES - 1991 (6 year gap)
N64 - 1996 (5 year gap)
Gamecube - 2001 (5 year gap)

Let's compare that with Sony

Playstation - 1994
Playstation 2 - 2000 (6 year gap)

... And, Sega.

Sega Genesis - 1989
Sega Saturn - 1994 (5 years later)
Sega Dreamcast - 1999 (5 years later)

SO.

Despite your "the sky is falling" post, I think we're right on track considering the 5 year cycle most of the consoles seem to take.

[Anthony1]

Nintendo Console History:

NES - 1985
SNES - 1991 (6 year gap)
N64 - 1996 (5 year gap)
Gamecube - 2001 (5 year gap)

Let's compare that with Sony

Playstation - 1994
Playstation 2 - 2000 (6 year gap)

... And, Sega.

Sega Genesis - 1989
Sega Saturn - 1994 (5 years later)
Sega Dreamcast - 1999 (5 years later)

SO.

Despite your "the sky is falling" post, I think we're right on track considering the 5 year cycle most of the consoles seem to take.


I did say that "nobody is complaining about this, and that by calling it the worst hardware drought in 20 years, it was going to make it sound more dramatic than it is.

This isn't a "Sky is falling post".

I'm not saying that it is a bad thing, that we will have 3 XMAS's with no new consoles for the first time since 1988. I'm not saying that is bad.

I'm just calling it like it is.

By the way, you seem to have forgot about the Sega CD, and the Sega 32X. You can say that they weren't systems, but they would be considered video game hardware. And they had their own exclusive library of software.

So I count them as systems.


As for handhelds, yes I'm not counting handhelds. And even if I was the SP wouldn't qualify as a "new" system. The N'Gage and the Zodiac would, but I'm talking about home consoles that you hook to your TV.

[ddockery]

Well, if you're going to count the 32x as video game hardware, then why not the Game Boy Player? It has a hell of a lot more software than the 32x ever thought about.

[omnedon]

well, if you are going to count the 32X and the SEGACD as console releases, then you should count the Sony PSX, and count the SONY PS2 HDD. perhaps even the eyetoy...

Expansions that let you play new games that require the 'expansion'.

Think about it! :)

[zmweasel]

N/A

[D-Lite]

I think it's high time NEC release a Turbo Grafx 2.

:-P

Seriously, I'm rather happy that the consoles aren't coming fast and furious since that'd be more crap to buy.

Also, you seem to forget about the Neo-Geo AES which came out in 1990 I believe. And when was the Hyper64?

[zmweasel]

N/A

[Anthony1]

Well, if you're going to count the 32x as video game hardware, then why not the Game Boy Player? It has a hell of a lot more software than the 32x ever thought about.

I don't consider the Game Boy Player to really be it's own system. It's really just a device to allow certain portable games, to be seen on TV.

I'm not counting portables in this discussion.

[Anthony1]

well, if you are going to count the 32X and the SEGACD as console releases, then you should count the Sony PSX, and count the SONY PS2 HDD. perhaps even the eyetoy...

Expansions that let you play new games that require the 'expansion'.

Think about it! :)

Now, that is really taking it to the extreme. You know what I mean. The 32X and the Sega CD are really like systems unto themselves.

I consider the Genesis with a 32X, and a Genesis with a Sega CD to be their own systems as a combined unit. Yes the 32X and Sega CD need a Genny to exist, but they have their own entire game libraries.

[Retsudo]

Seriously, I'm rather happy that the consoles aren't coming fast and furious since that'd be more crap to buy.

Thats exactly how I feel about it. Im still recovering from buying my PS2 LOL

[metal_head]

Suits me as well...It would be nice to have an industry concentrating on top quality games for systems it knows inside out, rather than spreading itself out to accomadate yet more hardware.

I'm sure there would have been a hell of a lot more high quality Dreamcast stuff had it still been around,

[omnedon]

@ Anthony1

I can see your point, but I'm note sure it's pushung it 'that' far.


Yes the 32X and Sega CD need a Genny to exist, but they have their own entire game libraries.

That definition holds up for the Eyetoy, and the PS2 HDD given a bit of time I'll wager. The 32X has a meager library.

If they are included what about the releases of the TG16CD, and the Jag CD? Timeline wise do they support your point? They must also be releases.

I think one could consider the 90's as a learning period for comapnies about what works and what does not. To their credit, SEGA really pushed the hardware envelope. Unfortunately, it was a 'does not work' experiment, and in the long run paid very dearly for it. I can see the modern Nintendo, Microsoft and SONY taking note of all of those releases in the 90's, and taking lessons from it, leaving us where we are today.

[Anthony1]

@ Anthony1

I can see your point, but I'm note sure it's pushung it 'that' far.


Yes the 32X and Sega CD need a Genny to exist, but they have their own entire game libraries.

That definition holds up for the Eyetoy, and the PS2 HDD given a bit of time I'll wager. The 32X has a meager library.

If they are included what about the releases of the TG16CD, and the Jag CD? Timeline wise do they support your point? They must also be releases.

I think one could consider the 90's as a learning period for comapnies about what works and what does not. To their credit, SEGA really pushed the hardware envelope. Unfortunately, it was a 'does not work' experiment, and in the long run paid very dearly for it. I can see the modern Nintendo, Microsoft and SONY taking note of all of those releases in the 90's, and taking lessons from it, leaving us where we are today.

Yes, the Turbo CD and to a lesser extent the Jag CD count. So do the CD-I and 3DO and Neo-Geo etc,.

I didn't list every system that was released between 1985 and now. And by listing every single system, that makes my point even more clear. And it shows the drought to be even more severe.

The Eye toy could never be considered a system. That is like calling the Super Scope or Menacer a system. As for the PS2 Hard Drive, if there are a substancial number of games that only work with the ps2 HD and they don't function otherwise, whatsoever, then maybe the PS2 HD. But we aren't at that point yet, and I don't see us ever getting to that point with the PS2 Hard Drive. Sure, there are going to be some games that will only work with it, but it isn't going to be like a 32X or Sega CD or Turbo CD. Maybe a Jag CD. The Jag CD didn't really have many games, so it's almost hard to look at the Jag CD as really a "system".

[Phosphor Dot Fossils]

Atari 2600 - 1977
Atari 5200 - 1982
Atari 7800 - 1984, but held back until 1987

Five years is a good round figure. LOL And you also have to take into account that fewer people would buy into video games if the consoles didn't have some staying power. Sony has also made backward compatibility a key part of the PS2, as did Nintendo with that GBA that you're not counting. And so did Atari with the 7800. People have to feel like the $40-$50 they're spending on new games isn't going to be a waste in just five short years.

The hardware can't turn over as fast as it would need to in order to avoid qualifying for your "drought." It would lead to the demise of the market.

[digitalpress]

I have two points to make.

First, my minor point. I think this is a good thing, it encourages better SOFTWARE, and isn't that what we gamers really NEED right now? Also I think that the Game Boy Advance in the very least should be considered hardware, but hey, it's your rules.

Next, my major point. I think Anthony1 may very well be the best "controversial topic creator" we've ever had. I sometimes agree, sometimes disagree, but damn if these topics aren't relevant and thought provoking. You know... I think that's what we're all here for! Bravo to you, sir.

[Flack]

The hardware can't turn over as fast as it would need to in order to avoid qualifying for your "drought." It would lead to the demise of the market.

Exactly. Look at the PC market. You can almost plan on whatever you buy being obsolete or at least outdated by the time you get it home from the store. Since we're talking about five year cycles, five years ago ('98), Pentium 333's were the high end (maybe p400, can't find it for sure). In 1998, most PC bioses wouldn't support drives bigger than 8 gig. You get my point.

[omnedon]

Next, my major point. I think Anthony1 may very well be the best "controversial topic creator" we've ever had. I sometimes agree, sometimes disagree, but damn if these topics aren't relevant and thought provoking. You know... I think that's what we're all here for! Bravo to you, sir.


Agreed! :)

[GameGuru]

I think it's high time NEC release a Turbo Grafx 2. :-

You might have said that as a joke but I would love this!

[christianscott27]

its a great thing, long may it last. being a long view collector i tend to prefer the games that appear in a systems "mature" years. when every last ounce of innovation has been squeezed out of the console you get some great games like donkey kong country, pitfall II or soul reaver (ps). sure beats dropping $200 on a dreamcast and then having it go under in the wake of slightly more advanced consoles.

[YoshiM]

"Drought" is typically a negative slant on a situation. Like when early on in the N64's life it suffered a "software draught".

Yeah, Anthony is right that there is an end of an era of major HARDWARE console competition. It takes too much spunduli to jump into the race these days. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Problem with having TOO MUCH hardware is that a lot of it is just going to mediocre offerings or just more confusion for the masses.

I'm glad there are only a few competitors for hardware.

[maxlords]

I say wait longer. We were JUST beginning to really start to tax the last generation of systems when they died, and the DC died early. This generation of systems will BARELY be peaking in a couple more years....and I'm tired of buying new systems so fast! :D The slower the better in my book.

[Anthony1]

The hardware can't turn over as fast as it would need to in order to avoid qualifying for your "drought." It would lead to the demise of the market.


But if having too many systems leads to the demise of the market, then how the hell did we survive the early and mid 90's?

Seems like the video game market did just fine during that period.

I can remember a time when all of these consoles competed with each other to some degree....

1. TurboDuo
2. Genesis
3. Super Nintendo
4. Sega CD
5. Jaguar
6. Neo-Geo
7. 3DO
8. 32X
9. CD-I
10. Saturn
11. Playstation


From 1992 to 1996 all of these systems were out there competeing against one another. I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple of them too.

But anyways, the point of the matter is that having a bunch of systems doesn't lead to any demise, so long as 2 of the the systems stand out above the rest during a given time.

I have to say that I will miss the days of seeing a ton of different options out there.

Right now, all we have is 3, and I think that is all we are going to have for quite some time. It's a little depressing for me.

Sorry, but I'm just be honest, and admitting the fact that I'm a little bummed by the fact that the days of seeing 6 or 7 different systems names on the top of a multiplatform game magazine is over and dead.

[Anthony1]

I say wait longer. We were JUST beginning to really start to tax the last generation of systems when they died, and the DC died early. This generation of systems will BARELY be peaking in a couple more years....and I'm tired of buying new systems so fast! :D The slower the better in my book.

Actually, it's not a situation where I want the PS3, and XBOX 2 and GameCube 2 to come out sooner. It's a situation where I wish there were some other competitors out there to throw their hat in the ring, and try to go for the unthinkable victory.

Sure, they usually failed miserably, but it was still fun.


Companies like 3D0, SNK, NEC, Phillips and Sega made things very interesting during the 90's.

[Ed Oscuro]

The traditional home console field is pretty much closed (nevermind Phantom and the ApeXtreme)...I can't even see a counterpart to the Neo Geo (i.e. home Atomiswave system) being released these days. Handhelds are where the smaller companies are looking to make money.

It seems to me that the Phantom (I'm pretty sure it's coming, it's certainly in development, assuming it actually has some investors to please, that is :) and the ApeXtreme are similar to what the big companies are working on right now, and that these two projects will fail, but show the way other companies are looking...secure networks for console gamers to play online on, have a large user community, and the ability for console gamers to engage PC gamers online (probably in the next round...might not be done well at first, but you know how the companies love to push these things before their time).

[Dr. Morbis]

The difference I see between the 90's and now is that the hardware releases by the major companies are too synchronized. Instead of having a new home console come out every year trying to one-up the ones already on the market, the big three came out at *almost* exactly the same time. I think the drought that Anthony is talking about is the fact that there will be no "next-gen" system for a while guaranteed. There will be no PS3, GC2, or XBOX2 till 2005 at the absolute earliest. That means no major home console release in 2002, 2003, 2004, etc. That's the difference I see.

Unlike the 90's, there is no new console "just around the corner" (unless Nintendo really surprises us at CES)

[Phosphor Dot Fossils]

But if having too many systems leads to the demise of the market, then how the hell did we survive the early and mid 90's?

Not everyone did. From your list, NEC and Phillips don't seem to be concerning themselves much with the videogame market anymore, Sega has dropped out of the hardware race, Atari as we once knew it has ceased to exist (and if one wants to argue that it's back, it's still only software), SNK is hanging on by a thread (and again, primarily doing software rather than hardware), and that leaves...Sony and Nintendo.

I think I understand what you're saying here, but as Moore's Law now applies to consoles as much as it does to computers, the cost of developing, packaging and marketing the technology - not to mention getting a foot in the door of increasingly tight-knit developer/publisher-console manufacturer relationships - is prohibitive.

Now...the reason you had a lot of "minor" consoles in the late 70s/early 80s, and again in the late 80s/early 90s is purely a bandwagon thing. Major players like Atari and Nintendo showed that it was possible to make a profit on the hardware, and so other companies were more inclined to greenlight R&D for new hardware, or license it from third parties (usually foreign companies seeking a brand name to help them break into the US market). The crash in the 80s weeded out the boys from the men, but market realities did the same in the 90s. Just as much money and blood was lost in the 90s by the wanna-bes as had been lost in the 80s - only there wasn't a public loss of faith (i.e. the bottom of the 80s' videogame-related stocks dropping out) to go with it. The 90s were like the crash without the loud noise. Maybe that makes it more of a wet, messy squish.

And there are still wanna-bes out there, like the Phantom, and we'll still get to watch them fall by the wayside. Publishers and developers will come and go. Empires will rise and fall. And there'll always be a handful of Big Fish left in the sea when it's all over with, releasing Big Consoles every five years or so.

OK, that's as much of a serious historical analysis as I can pull off at 4am. Your mileage, of course, may vary. :D

[kainemaxwell]

Do you think we've hit a peak as to what console hardware can do with current technologies though?

[Garry Silljo]

NO MORE NEW SYSTEMS!!!!! I'm serious. A system is released and 3 days later or so they're already planning the next one, and all the developers have to rush and finish their games to start making for the new platform that is still in the blueprint stages anyway.... An exageration for sure, but the point is, lets get some systems that will be around for a LONG time, let the developers get comfortable and make some REAL quality games, and for those crying for a new system every 2 seconds, enjoy what you got.

[calthaer]

I have two points to make.

First, my minor point. I think this is a good thing, it encourages better SOFTWARE, and isn't that what we gamers really NEED right now? Also I think that the Game Boy Advance in the very least should be considered hardware, but hey, it's your rules.

I couldn't agree more. Who gives a rip if we have more and newer hardware as long as new and better GAMES are coming out? Hardware doesn't mean a thing without good gamez to run on it.

The only hardware that I can see as being good is something like the Phantom, which will play PC games, already has a large software library because of that fact, and will give a shot in the arm to an already sagging part of the games industry (the aforementioned PC sector).