Columnist predicts the death of Xbox within three years

[zmweasel]

And he also details Microsoft's legacy of shame in hardware ventures:

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/ZDM/microsoft_hardware_pcmag_040521.html

-- Z.

[RCM]

This coliumnist is predicting the all together demise of any xbox hardware within 3 years, xbox 2 included. At least that's what it seems he is saying. It is possible, if it bombs. It's tough to predict what will happen in 3 years. Developers may even start copyrighting videogame genres by then. THat's a little inside joke people. Anyway, the Xbox hasn't exactly been a huge success, but it certainly hasn't been a failure either. It could go either way, best of luck to microsoft.

THE ONE, THE ONLY- RCM

[Ed Oscuro]

Thanks for the link, Zach.

Interesting article, but I have to scratch my head. Last time I checked Microsoft was still selling those wierd floppy-drive-to-TV picture viewers. The sound cards and wireless products - well, what of them? I don't recall any fanfare whatsoever, and certainly no great committment to them.

Microsoft seemed quite confident, back in 2001, that the XBox would be able to surivive in the turbulent market, and frankly it makes lots of sense for them to be there given their business. They're working on XNA.

If you ask me, Microsoft is more confident of their platform than I can be of this fellow's analysis. There's not much meat to it. Some nice tidbits of secret information would be nice - though probably impossible to get ahold of - but there's nothing of the sort. His reasoning amounts to a couple lines taking up a very small fraction of the review; the reasoning can be summed up with "I've seen Microsoft put lots of *midrange* (note the XBox is a very powerful console) products and since they haven't launched a media blitz for the machine I think they're going to dump it like they did a crappy line of joysticks."

I'd say that, without taking sides, Zach really summed up the article when he said it mentions Microsoft's other failed products. However, that's about all I can see in the article. Lots of history, but we're led to decide for himself if his analysis of said history makes sense.

[Kid Ice]

I found his comment about Microsoft bringing out a handheld to compete with the Game Boy a little odd.

[Melf]

So, half a billion dollars in advertising is considered "precious little resources?" O.....k.

He then goes off to equate computer OS trends with console trends. Of course, we all know how people love to upgrade consoles every other year. That's why the average system has lasted 3-5 years; some even longer (NES, GB, PCE, PS one).

He follows up by saying a handheld would make more sense than upgrading Live and that only the Xbox's fanbase has kept MS from dropping it.

I love the end though. "I'd be that they'll sell off or abandon the platform in three years." That would give the Xbox a 5 year life span, which is pretty typical of a successful platform.

x_x

[Flack]

Seems like a leap of faith to me to jump from talking about abandoned sound cards and networking technology to the Xbox, which is obviously quickly becomming a staple of their empire.

I'm sure Gates and co. would be more than happy to take a loss on every Xbox sold, if nothing else than to get gamers familiar with it and prepare them for "Xbox 2". The key is in creating life-long loyalty. How many Gamecubes did the NES/SNES/N64 sell?

If anything, I see Microsoft's disinterest in the handheld console battle a good one. You know what I would like to see? Something the size of the PSP with a USB port and a 2.5" hard drive in the back that you could play PC games on that sold for the same price as a GBA.

[Push Upstairs]

Well duh! Isnt that when the XBOX2 rolls out? :D


I'll file this in with the various "Nintendo is going software only" predictions.

[lendelin]

That's one of the most shallow articles I read in some time.

MS had some failed hardware products, so the XBox might have the same destiny. Indicators: 1) MS doesn't engage aggressively in the PR of the next system, and 2) they didn't put up a competitor to the GameBoy.

Neither N nor Sony hyped their next machine already, and to go into the handheld market would be the dumbest thing MS could do at a time when the DS and PSP are around the corner and before they get consolidated in the console market.

Otherwise...the article mentions good reasons why the XBox will stay around for some time.

[SoulBlazer]

And it's not so much failed products -- Microsoft like any other company saw that making certain things just were'nt profitable enough anymore, like with the Sidewinders. I use mine all the time. :)

[Ed Oscuro]

As a side note - I have only ever seen somebody ask (not even suggest, just ask) if MS making a handheld would be a good thing was over at Classicgaming Forums, Should X Box make a handheald. (http://www.forumplanet.com/classicgaming/topic.asp?fid=1454&tid=442083)

Of course there was talk about it back in 2000 (http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/102/Xbox-Handheld-a-possibility) but I think people pretty much realized a MS handheld would bomb horribly (unless you could play Windows games on it...but that's starting to sound like the handheld that used to be here (http://www.nurve.net/) that Andre LaMothe was behind - I guess he dropped it for good reasons. It's been hard enough for them to get people behind their regular console, and while it wouldn't have been hard for MS to beat the GameBoy Color, it would've been hard to push a better console than that, and the question remains if it would've been significantly more advanced than, say, a Lynx, Nomad, or TurboExpress.

[Aussie2B]

The writer of this article obviously has no knowledge of how the gaming industry works. o_O

"Microsoft spends precious little resources on promoting the game console"

Uh... then why do I hear "It's good to play together" in practically every other commercial I see on TV? (Exaggeration, yes, but the commercials ARE played A LOT.)

What does this guy expect, a new console every year? 5 years is the normal average span, and Microsoft is following in suit. And I'm still HAPPILY using Windows 98, Mr. Article-Writer. ;)

I don't even get what he's getting at with the handheld comment. Sony has been in the business a lot longer than Microsoft, and not until just recently have they decided to take on the Game Boy. If anything, Microsoft has made a very wise decision in staying out of handhelds. Nintendo has crushed every competitor so far. If they watch how the PSP does against it, then they can base their decision to stay out of or go into the handheld market on its performance.

While the X-Box doesn't appeal to me in the least and I don't really like Microsoft hopping into this industry, I gotta admit that it's doing well and offers something new. It's has the best graphics capabilities of the three current consoles, and it offers many PC-style games. This is very appealing to mainstream American gamers who want to play sports and shoot things. :P

[kainemaxwell]

Do ya think MS will gague the X-Box's success moreso on Halo 2 when its finally released as well?

(Hope this made sense)

[SirDrexl]

If anything, gamers will probably think they're launching the new system too early, as it looks as if the Xbox won't have the typical five-year life cycle most (successful) consoles have.

[Daniel Thomas]

That whole article's premise is nonsense. Just what experience does this writer have in the gaming biz? If he could produce his stack of old VG&CE magazines, than maybe I'd start listening. Until then, pass. Find me someone who knows what they're talking about.

The videogame industry is evolving into two name-brand consoles, Sony and Microsoft, with Sony in the dominant seat. It comes down to those two because they have the most money, and consumers stick with recognizable names. It's impossible for anyone else, including Nintendo, to break into the console market with anything more than a dent.

If something replaces the Playstation and XBox, it'll be some new technology that completely renders console games obsolete. But the culture of playing videogames in front of your TV is too set to ever really change.

And the endless Nintendo rumors? They'll be out of the console business within five years. They made their money manufacturing cartridges, which is why they always held onto proprietary technologies. But that just can't last anymore, and Nintendo can't compete on an even field. Software developers forced the change in the 32-bit era, and they'll never go back. Nintendo will stick with the handhelds, I'm sure, but sooner of later the console money is gonna dry up. It just comes down to corporate ego and how long the old guard will resist the inevitable.

[sisko]

If Microsoft was truly serious about the gaming hardware market, it would be working on or already have introduced a Gameboy competitor.

I challenge the credibility of the author if he honestly thinks a 3rd [major] handheld can be supported in an already flooded market. Methinks MS already realized they couldn't have survived a long long time ago.

[theoakwoody]

I will say first of all that I think Nintendo should get out of the hardware business, obvioulsy not handhelds, and focus on software. However, what is considered a successful system? I don't have any numbers to back this claim up but I think that the Gamecube has sold fairly well. It hasn't sold close to as many systems as Sony but who cares you can still make a profit buy selling millions of systems. I look at it this way, the majority of the world runs on PC compatible computers and that will probably never change but there are millions of people out their who love macs. I don't but whatever. There's also the Windows vs. Linux question which I won't get into. Basically Nintendo will always make their own shit because that's what they want to do and until they start making huge mistakes like Sega I don't believe they'll leave the console market anytime soon. There will always be Nintendo fanboys out there because Nintendo has established franchises that they can milk for centuries. Even if their next console finishes in third behind Xbox 2 and Playstation 3 their will still be profits for the big N. The video game industry is becoming more like the auto industry with more and more choices and with the PC software industry moving out I think there will be a lot more dollars spent on video games vs. pc games.

[brykasch]

Oh this article isn't even worthing wiping with. First off, so microsoft game out with some products, and then stopped selling them when they didn't meet expectations? What company hasn't. I think MS realized PC games were not going to be the market they thought they would be, and since they were designing the xbox that those resources should be directed there. I know alot of people who liked their pc controllers and joysticks, and will pay good money to find replacements for em. As far as sound cards I don't remember MS coming out with them, but there really has only been 2-3 very successful brands, with Sb far and away the leader. It makes no sense to continue manufacturing something you aren't making any money on. Hell need I mention Microsoft BOB... LOL I thought not.
But to compare all this to the XBOX is a joke. MS spens bilions of dollars promoting the system. Most ads are for individual games, not systems, hell even the big N has more ads for the GBA sp then the gamecube, but you don't see him talking about them. No official specs have been announced for XBOX2 near as I can tell so how would he know what's gonna be in it? Pretty much every major game thats released comes out on PS2 and XBOX with a few exceptions. Both systems have rabid fanboys. YEs PS2 copies usually outsell xbox versions, but thats because of the larger installed base, next round it may not be the case.
Really this guy needed to do a whole lot more research. On average most systems go about 5 years before a successor, even the n64 which was considered a dismal failure by some, lasted 5 years before a failure, even the saturn was going for 4 years. Yeah most people upgrade their os's every 3 years, but thats just because most people get a new pc every 3 years. So voila a new os. Alot of people still use 98 or 98se.
A gameboy competitor?? Is this guy serious it would take about 3-4 years lead time to get something like this up and going. Maybe in the future sometime they may think about it, but not now the market is 2 crowded at the moment. And the future has shown that it barely can contain 2 systems, and usually only one does well. And with the price point for the psp ha good luck. The ds is getting my money, i know what they can do, and the quality of the hardware. Sony on the other hand, never had a system from them that hasn't broken.

[tyranthraxus]

Nintendo's problem is their reliance on the old franchises that made them
huge in their NES and SNES glory days. Yeah if you're a longtime fan a new
Zelda game is something to look forward to but a new game has none of
the impact the first Zelda had, or the original SMB release or how amazing
Donkey Kong Country was. If Nintendo stopped making sequels and came up
with more brand new titles to launch as franchise games they could turn their stagnant scene around. Sequels will keep your faithful happy but they
need something really new and exciting to convert people.

[Melf]

If Nintendo stopped making sequels and came up
with more brand new titles to launch as franchise games they could turn their stagnant scene around. Sequels will keep your faithful happy but they
need something really new and exciting to convert people.


Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Eternal Darkness, Geist, Custom Robo, Fire Emblem, Advance Wars, and Golden Sun are all new to the U.S. and have all come out for the first time this generation.