Possible Crash this Christmas?

[musical]

Analysts predict a potentially disastrous holiday season for publishers

It’s no secret that publishers schedule the release of their greatest titles for the end of the year so that they can maximize their sales when moms around the world rush out to buy little Johnny his favorite new video game in time for Christmas. But what affect does this have on smaller titles from lesser-known developers? Last year we saw such dismal sales from fantastic games like Metal Arms and Beyond Good & Evil that no sequel will ever be made for what could have otherwise been two great new franchises. Meanwhile the mediocre True Crime sold through the roof.

A recent report from Banc of America Securities, a global equities research group, expresses concern that this trend is going to get worse before it gets better (if it ever does). According to the report, more games will be released this holiday shopping season than in any other before it, and that the market saturation might further push smaller developers out of the picture entirely. Retailers only have so much shelf space, and when it comes to deciding which to display, the decision is always made by the almighty dollar.

However this is not only limited to smaller developers but affects the key players as well. Big name titles such as Halo 2 and GTA: San Andreas will likely sell fewer titles than expected due to the overwhelming competition, and companies like Microsoft and Sony will be spending big money advertising these and other titles. "Apart from The Sims 2.0, we do not consider any game this holiday out of harm’s way of the competition." Banc of America securities predicts that Electronic Arts could lose as much as 2 to 4 percent market share. [<-- ]

"We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands including Acclaim, Midway (except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (apart from Halo 2). With the competition out there and large number of titles, some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards. Expect many disasters this holiday."

Bad news for the video game industry is bad news for gamers. You might be sitting at home right now wondering why there aren’t many new games to play. The summer seems to be an ideal time to release games, what with kids out of school and all. But publishers tend to think with their wallets and not their brains. Hopefully this holiday shopping season will be a wake-up call to all of them, and with any luck we won’t lose any of our favorite small developers in the process.

http://www.gamersmark.com/news/2004/07/1/3998



"According to the report, more games will be released this holiday shopping season than in any other before it, and that the market saturation might further push smaller developers out of the picture entirely."

Can you say? Video Game Crash of 1984 .... er, 2004?

[Captain Wrong]

I dunno. It seems like every year since, ohh, the NES this comes up.

Personally, I think if anything happens (and that's a big if) it's not going to be like '84 where gaming fell off the map entirely. I think there could be a bit of a chill that could clean the pool a bit. Seems to me like we could stand to see that happen (see thread on $4.99 Circuit City blow-out.)

[dethink]

i doubt we're headed for another crash. it just shows that there is becoming less and less room for anything on the shelves in the US that is a niche game...though i don't know how zelda-esque adventures and 3rd person shooters became niche titles.

the key phrase: "Meanwhile the mediocre True Crime sold through the roof."

people don't care about deep play mechanics - give them blood, boobs, and bad words, and they're happy. is the movie industry, that has been banking on the lowest common denominator for years (really) in any danger? nope, they've been cashing in on these very same key themes for years now, and the gaming industry is doing the same - business is booming. the same rift between good and bad exists in hollywood as well. look at all the innovative movies a company like focus features has been putting out. even one with the star power of someone like jim carey (eternal sunshine...) was barely in the thearters for 2 weeks here. hell, most movies, even a lot of the big releases aren't in theaters anywhere near as long as they were a few years ago. americans (according to marketing departments nationwide) want the next Fast and Furious/You Got Served/Hillary Duff movie, and they want it NOW. same goes for true crime, GTA, etc.

[YoshiM]

Crash? Nah, like good Captain said these sales situations have been going on for a long time. I posted something not too long ago quoting a magazine about the very same issue that this article touches on. I also think the market is going to slow down just because there isn't enough ROOM on shelves for the stuff. Now with the Nintendo DS hitting markets this year yet (unless that's changed) it's going to be very interesting.

I do agree that smaller developers will probably be edged out. As modern games get more and more expensive to make, the smaller guys can't afford to make a game unless they get some publishing fundage. However that sometimes (if not usually) means whatever cool interesting game they were working on may be shifted into something the mainstream buying public will consume.

[swlovinist]

I dont think anything will compare to the crash of '84, but the market I do believe will have a serious correction. The problem is that there are too many games now with more on the way...alot more. While I dont think that the flood of games is going to affect A+ titles such as GTA San Adreas, Halo 2, or Gran Turismo 4....this Christmas is gonna kill the small publishers. The price wars are going to be fierce and competitive, in which any price reductions are going to take away from profits. The bottom line is the market has three video game systems with a crapload of games between them. It is only a matter of time before the market gets saturated and money is started to be lost. When will it happen? Only time will tell, but I feel that time may be sooner than later. The bottom line is that this Christmas is going to get bloody and it will really affect future titles and projects beyond the holidays

[MarioAllStar2600]

Has this topic not been discussed enough? x_x x_x

[SoulBlazer]

Well, it's always nice to see hard evidence, and there's some posted in the article in the original posters thread.

I agree that this Christmas will pave the way for the future.

[Jasoco]

The faster games come out, the faster they drop in price. I see it as a good thing. There are only a few games I am willing to pay full price for, the rest I can wait for price drops.

[QBert]

Every year, same story except each year it gets worse. Lke it was already mentioned, I dont think we will have a `84 like crash, but hopefully it can be a wake up call to quit making so many games and then focus on more quality games.

But I doubt it. :(


Qbert

[pookninja]

i really dont think we are going to see a crash of the videogame market,like in 1984(i was 10 years old,and remember seeing bins of 2600 games at kay-bee for 5 dollars)but i do think we are going to see less original games being released,and i also think alot more import games from japan will not get an american release here,as companys will not want to take the chance on releasing them here.but i do think,halo2,madden2005,grand theft auto,and all the big titles will still sell like hotcakes!!

[sabre2922]

If anything I foresee what I call a "micro" crash of sorts. Meaning that since there is a complete overflooding of both good and(but mostly) bad video games on the market right now like never before ,yes even compared to the slightly over saturated NES days, there will be a cleansing of some of the smaller developers and publishers out there both good ones and bad ones lets just hope that it is more of the latter that gets singled out.
Im not trying to start another "one of those fanboys posts" again but I really dont see how NINTENDO will not eventually be one of those developers and publishers especially as far as hardware goes. I mean damn the Gamecube is a great system and all but it has turned into another N64 with the lack of good quality games coming out for it on a regular basis and has little to no support from most major 3rd party developers and publishers thats getting thinner everyday, now dont get me wrong I do luv Nintendo for all the many years of great gaming that they have always provided for me and oh so many others but I AM ONLY SPEAKING FOR MYSELF OF COURSE but I decided just a few months age to raise the blinders that I had been wearing so that I could see clearly the actual state that the big N is in especially when it concerns the Gamecube I had honestly had nothing new to play on the system for so many months waiting for RE4 and Metroid Prime:echoes I had horrible flashbacks of the N64 "dry periods" so I finally gave in a traded in all my Gamecube stuff including every game for my 3rd freakin PS2 and like 2 games, and do I regret it? sadly no, but I do hate the fact that I had to do it :angry:
Many of us here must face up to the fact that the "GLORY DAYS" of Sega and Nintendo fighting it out with the creation of the most original and greatest games we would ever play is long gone.
Reckoning day has already come and gone without most of us "retro" gamers even taking notice.
The big corporations have taken hold of this once small enjoyable hobby of ours and have turned it into another beast completely for the better or for the worse depends upon your own personal views just like anything else in life.
and unless there is a Major shakedown of Epic porportions the large conglamerate corporations are here to stay as long as there is a big and profitable market for them, therefore the goldenage and even the sivlerage (if u wanna call it that) of gaming on our Nintendos and Segas are very soon to be looooong gone my friends :(

[maxlords]

The problem, as always, is in the LCD, the Lowest Common Denominator. For every collector there are 1000 or eve 10000 casual gamers that buy a few games a year. All they buy is stuff like Maddens and GTAs and whatever their mom or sister or cousin/wife grabs them from Walmart. Basically, they don't care what they play and they buy whatever is on the shelf. As a result this caliber of gamer controls the direction in which cash flow enters the game market at a retail level, determining what sort of games companies make and port.

What we're seeing is many many companies rushing products to market before they're finished to get as many sales of unique titles as possible. And of those, most of the titles are failing. This continued trend WILL crash the market in a way, but only for the smaller publisher, as stated above. What we're going to be left with is a Hollywood of gaming. A few huge companies financing almost all of the games made, and no room for much in the way of smaller independents. We're already seeing it with all the mergers being done in software companies, and it'll only get worse. Entertainment is big business, not the domain of the little guy, and in regards to video games, it may never be small time again. We're just going to have to accept that unless we stop buying crap games ENTIRELY as a community, and urge EVERYONE to follow suit...AND succeed, we cannot affect change in this trend. Personally, I rarely buy ANY games new unless they're from smaller publishers or are obscure titles/genres that don't normally sell. Any major games I tend to buy used only. If everyone did that...we'd see change. But most people never will.

[SoulBlazer]

Well, I play both casual and hardcore games. I have no problem paying full price for a game on launch day if I KNOW I will play it a lot and get my money worth out of it. That includes Madden, it includes GTA 4, and it includes the small titles.

There's nothing wrong with that -- I buy the games I want to play right away full price, and those I don't care as much about I pick up used.

The REAL damage is being caused by kids and teens who keep buying games and selling them back a few days later. :roll:

[calthaer]

Here's to hoping! Maybe if this happens the corporate fiends who have made gaming what it is today will cash in their chips and let the real people get the decision-making power back. All hail Chris Crawford and his vision of the new future!

[YoshiM]

After reading some of the posts and the more I think about it, I think a lot of us (me included) have a serious warped sense of hindsight. We talk about how much crap there is today but we hardly ever put into perspective that, maintaining an aspect ratio, there was the same amount of crap in the "golden days" as there are now. And I find that there isn't so much true "crap" as there are many "average" games.

When I think back to the NES it's actually difficult for me to come up with a good wad of piss poor titles that deserve to be called crap. There's King Neptune, Jaws comes to mind, Seicross is another but what I remember most are all the average games. The ones that are worth a rent or a borrow but not worth buying. I played a LOT of games like that. I think what happens is that we tend to shovel those average games into the "Crap" pile because we see them as tired, worn out, rehashed material. Yet in the same thought we can hail a variety of SHMUPs, console RPGs, platformers and such as bright shiny gems even though a majority were based on tired, worn out, and somewhat rehashed material.

As I said before, critics have been saying the same things we are for years but the train keeps on movin'. We still get the same great games that seem to glow, the average titles fill the ranks as before and the schlock get tossed to the bargin bin just as fast as they ever did.

In 1984 after video games hit rock bottom it seemed as though they were a fad, with critics nodding their heads and saying "I told you so." Now video games are very established and appear on practically every device that has a microprocessor: cell phones, PDAs, calculators, watches, computers, word processors (if those are still around anymore) and I'm sure the list will grow. As it's been stated: there will be a shake down, but will there be a loss of innovation? Naw, it'll still be there but it will be subtle. We'll still talk about how bad things are but will say how surprised we are about some new game for the [insert next gen console here].

[thegreatescape]

I say give it at least another year- maybe next christmas when the ps2/xbox/gc are getting stagnant and there wont be a new console to get excited for (read: 10 year plan).

One thing from the article bothers me though:


"Apart from The Sims 2.0, we do not consider any game this holiday out of harm’s way of the competition." Banc of America securities predicts that Electronic Arts could lose as much as 2 to 4 percent market share.


Ummm... Sims 2.0 is going to sell faster than pr0n in a prison, so EA's market share aint goin nowhere. x_x

[kainemaxwell]

I doubt there will be one, though I'll agree with some the other comments here about someone needing to toss some chlorine into the pool to kill off the crap...

[Cmosfm]

Is anyone else so sick of hearing the topic brought up that they just don't give a rat's ass anymore?

Jeez! I think if everyone would stop worrying about a crash that there gaming lifestyles will be a little better, and more enjoyable.

[Graham Mitchell]

You know I read an interview somewhere with Ron Gilbert (Maniac Mansion, Monkey Island, etc.) and he brought up a really interesting point. Mr. Dethink was mentioning the analogy here between this industry and Hollywood. However, quality, thought-provoking films that aren't diluted to entice the lowest common denominator are still made (Croupier, Lost in Translation, etc.) These are made by so-called "independent" studios, which are actually fully funded by the big studios. Large studios maintain these independents because they know it's a scene where a lot of really quality innovation takes place, and because there is a huge market of people who appreciate film for film's sake, not because it makes a tingly feeling in their pants.

What Gilbert was suggesting was that a major video game publisher needs to have the cajones to start and fund an "independent" label so that the little guys can make games that satisfy the portion of the market that DOESN'T enjoy a mass display of debauchery with zilcho gameplay. In Gilbert's case, he felt that this would be a good way of reviving the ol' point-and-click genre, but hell, it could also bring 2-D shooters back to life, or overhead action-RPG's like Crystalis and Golvellius.

The "retro" market has been officially recognized by the industry, I think. But I don't love old games just because they remind me of being a kid. I love them because I appreciate what they are trying to do. Graphics don't impress me (except for the Dreamcast Ecco the Dolphin. That's probably the most beautiful game I've seen. Go ahead and slam me for it; I stand by it.) I think Gilbert may be on to something. Time will only tell if the industry agrees.

[Graham Mitchell]

Oh, and BTW; if you're "sick of hearing about this topic", then don't read the thread. Reproaching everybody else because you hate reading about something adds nothing to the conversation for those who are interested. :D

[Cmosfm]

Oh, and BTW; if you're "sick of hearing about this topic", then don't read the thread. Reproaching everybody else because you hate reading about something adds nothing to the conversation for those who are interested. :D

This topic comes up twice a month! I really don't really think anyone cares anymore. Also in every topic I believe someone posts about hating it and someone posts what you just posted. same thing all over again.

And I will continue to post in these topics just for the hell of it. :P

[musical]

deleted...

[AB Positive]

You know I read an interview somewhere with Ron Gilbert (Maniac Mansion, Monkey Island, etc.) and he brought up a really interesting point. Mr. Dethink was mentioning the analogy here between this industry and Hollywood. However, quality, thought-provoking films that aren't diluted to entice the lowest common denominator are still made (Croupier, Lost in Translation, etc.) These are made by so-called "independent" studios, which are actually fully funded by the big studios. Large studios maintain these independents because they know it's a scene where a lot of really quality innovation takes place, and because there is a huge market of people who appreciate film for film's sake, not because it makes a tingly feeling in their pants.

What Gilbert was suggesting was that a major video game publisher needs to have the cajones to start and fund an "independent" label so that the little guys can make games that satisfy the portion of the market that DOESN'T enjoy a mass display of debauchery with zilcho gameplay. In Gilbert's case, he felt that this would be a good way of reviving the ol' point-and-click genre, but hell, it could also bring 2-D shooters back to life, or overhead action-RPG's like Crystalis and Golvellius.

The "retro" market has been officially recognized by the industry, I think. But I don't love old games just because they remind me of being a kid. I love them because I appreciate what they are trying to do. Graphics don't impress me (except for the Dreamcast Ecco the Dolphin. That's probably the most beautiful game I've seen. Go ahead and slam me for it; I stand by it.) I think Gilbert may be on to something. Time will only tell if the industry agrees.


I don't drink Guiness but I'll quote 'em...


BRILLIANT~!


If this started happening, fallouts like Beyond Good and Evil wouldn't be anywhere near as debilitating as it was, and we could see more innovative stuff like it. Someone make that man a consultant.


-AG

[Jasoco]

The faster games come out, the faster they drop in price. I see it as a good thing.

Excellent point. 6 months ago (Christmas) I wanted Soul Calibur but it was $50. Now it's only $20.

Good for us.

Bad for publishers.ACTUALLY, that's completely different.

Soul Calibur 2 is a Greatest Players Platinum Choice Hit. There's a total difference between a game that sells a lot and becomes a hit and a game that sells hardly anything and becomes a flop. Both drop in price, but for totally different reasons. Namco already made their millions off SC2. So making it $20 is no problem for them. Beyond Good and Evil didn't sell enough, and dropped in price because it didn't sell. It didn't make the millions Ubi was hoping for, so a price cut is needed to make a profit albeit smaller than if it were $50.

Two completely different things. :)

[sabre2922]

right on Graham If you dont like a topic or think "its beating a dead horse" then dont bother to read or reply to the freakin topic its that simple! O_O

[Aussie2B]

Eh, there's two sides of it for me. On one hand, if there was a huge crash (which I think is highly unlikely after all these years of it becoming a huge, established industry) and if there wasn't a single new game EVER made, I honestly wouldn't care a whole heck of a lot, as a player. There are so many games that I own that I've barely played and so many more that I want to buy that I could probably easily go my whole life being completely satisfied with what has already been released.

BUT, and this is a BIG "but", I care about having a career. :P I'm majoring in computer programming in college, I'm quite skilled as a reviewer, and I dabble in translating, guide writing, drawing, and other such things. I could go in a lot of different directions, but I can't see myself doing something that isn't somehow related to video games. I need the industry to stay alive and healthy so I can get involved in it someday.

[musical]

Soul Calibur 2 is a Greatest Players Platinum Choice Hit. There's a total difference between a game that sells a lot and becomes a hit and a game that sells hardly anything and becomes a flop. ...Beyond Good and Evil GOOD POINT. I'll correct my error:


The faster games come out, the faster they drop in price. I see it as a good thing.
Excellent point. 6 months ago at Christmas I wanted [Beyond Good & Evil] but it was $50. Now it's only $20.

Good for us.

Bad for publishers.

Back in 1984 we saw lots of games marked down to $5 and thrown into bins. Too many games & not enough gamers. I expect to see the same thing in January 2005. (Actually, we're already seeing it. Look at Circuit City's insane sale.)