Analyst talks about the end of Xbox 1 production

[Anthony1]

Ok, this is a fake headline. But it could turn out to be real. I actually talked about this in another thread, but nobody picked up on that, instead the discussion focused on other things and I think this is a very important discussion that should take place, so let me break down my theory and the very interesting ramifications of that possibility:


1. Microsoft is set to release their next gen system, the XBOX 360, sometime in November of this year.

2. Microsoft continues to take a small loss on every XBOX sold. It isn't as bad as it used to be, but it's still a loss.

3. Once the XBOX 360 is available in stores, there really isn't a huge incentive for Microsoft to continue to manufacture the old system at a loss, no matter how small the loss might be. (remember, Microsoft is a publicly traded company)

Ok, now let's take a look at the three options that they have regarding the production of the original XBOX unit "after" the 360 is available at retail:


1. Halt production of the XBOX 1 sometime in 2006. This would avoid a huge consumer backlash by starting early and having no old XBOX systems to sell for Xmas. The old XBOX is still a very hot item, and consumers still want it. If they stopped production right now and didn't have any XBOX 1's to sell this Xmas, there would be alot of pissed of customers that most likely would either turn to PS2 or if they had a PS2 already, boycott the XBOX 360 and wait for PS3. By waiting till sometime in 2006, at least they avoid the consumer backlash for the 2005 holiday season.

2. Once the XBOX 360 becomes available, they actually increase the price of the old XBOX 1 system to $199.99. Now certainly, this would be unheard of, but they could rationalize this if they had to. They could explain that they lose money on every XBOX sold, and that they have conceded the current generation to the PS2, and they are moving on with the XBOX 360. They will continue to produce the first XBOX, but they are no longer going to take losses on every unit they sell, so they actually increase the MSRP to $199.99. Certainly, alot of people will be real pissed, but they can take it or leave it. It's actually a interesting thing to figure out if there would be more consumer backlash from them raising the price or for them to stop production.

3. Sometime in the very near future, possibly even at the e3 show they announce that in addition to the XBOX 360, they also have a redesigned XBOX 1 unit. This unit won't come with a hard drive, and it will include some other type of technology that will allow it to still work fine with the "majority" of XBOX games, but not all of them. This new redesigned unit will allow them to manufacture it with considerable cost reductions, allowing them to sell it at $149.99 and actually make a small profit off of every unit sold. Personally, I see this as the most unlikely scenario, considering the cost and effort it would take to come out with a redesign and all the time and money they are spending on launching the 360. Not a likely scenario, but you never know.

[Anthony1]

oops! This is in the wrong forum. Sorry bout that, Please move it over to the "Video Game" forum. My bad.

[pacmanhat]

MS has already stated that it's going to continue production on the Xbox through 2007. So...there's really no speculation.

[Anthony1]

MS has already stated that it's going to continue production on the Xbox through 2007. So...there's really no speculation.


I haven't heard that, but even if I did, I would take that with a grain of salt. No way they are going to continue to loose money on old XBOX systems for two more holiday seasons.

[Leo_A]

I don't really understand the purpose of making this thread, but I disagree. I think they will continue beyond the date you stated.

[InsaneDavid]

I don't really understand the purpose of making this thread...

To earn meseta. :roll:

[Nez]

Why stop?
Its still a powerfull system, I could understand stoping game porduction if the system was much weaker then the PS2 (making porting jobs much more difficult). But as is the system is still viable plus there are many units in households thoughtout the world.

[GrandAmChandler]

Damn this heading freaked me out! I think they will make it smaller, honestly. Unless Microsoft uses there checkbook power and takes the extra hit on the profit loss of the console.

[MegaDrive20XX]

When I saw the date, I thought it was serious news, only to figure out it was a Poll. Damn my eyes! "Too late!"

That's the last time I listen to a date stated on a poll! yeesh

Seriously, I'm going with the 2007 theory, sounds more solid.

[Anthony1]

Why stop?
Its still a powerfull system, I could understand stoping game porduction if the system was much weaker then the PS2 (making porting jobs much more difficult). But as is the system is still viable plus there are many units in households thoughtout the world.


Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell. Once somebody can go into a store and buy a XBOX 360, then what is the motivation for them to continue to produce the old system that causes them to loose money?

Now, are they going to stop making games for XBOX 1? No. Of course not. They will still make games for the old XBOX, probably all the way into 2007, (by the way I'm talking about 1st party Microsoft games, not 3rd parties. 3rd parties will probably make games for it all the way till 2009 or so). But why would they continue to make the old hardware, if they are losing money on the old hardware, and they would actually rather have somebody buy a 360. In a way the old XBOX would actually be competing with the new one.

It just doesn't make sense for them to continue to produce old XBOX systems, unless they either raise the price so that it's actually profitable for them, or if they totally redesign the unit and save a ton of money in the manufacturing process and therefore make some actual profit on it's current price.

[Nez]

Why stop?
Its still a powerfull system, I could understand stoping game porduction if the system was much weaker then the PS2 (making porting jobs much more difficult). But as is the system is still viable plus there are many units in households thoughtout the world.


Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell. Once somebody can go into a store and buy a XBOX 360, then what is the motivation for them to continue to produce the old system that causes them to loose money?

Now, are they going to stop making games for XBOX 1? No. Of course not. They will still make games for the old XBOX, probably all the way into 2007, (by the way I'm talking about 1st party Microsoft games, not 3rd parties. 3rd parties will probably make games for it all the way till 2009 or so). But why would they continue to make the old hardware, if they are losing money on the old hardware, and they would actually rather have somebody buy a 360. In a way the old XBOX would actually be competing with the new one.

It just doesn't make sense for them to continue to produce old XBOX systems, unless they either raise the price so that it's actually profitable for them, or if they totally redesign the unit and save a ton of money in the manufacturing process and therefore make some actual profit on it's current price.

Ok they should continue making the Xbox becouse companys will still create more games for the system, there for need a licence from Microsoft to do so. That is why I dont think theyll stop anytime soon.

[-hellvin-]

Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell. Once somebody can go into a store and buy a XBOX 360, then what is the motivation for them to continue to produce the old system that causes them to loose money?

Now, are they going to stop making games for XBOX 1? No. Of course not. They will still make games for the old XBOX, probably all the way into 2007, (by the way I'm talking about 1st party Microsoft games, not 3rd parties. 3rd parties will probably make games for it all the way till 2009 or so). But why would they continue to make the old hardware, if they are losing money on the old hardware, and they would actually rather have somebody buy a 360. In a way the old XBOX would actually be competing with the new one.

It just doesn't make sense for them to continue to produce old XBOX systems, unless they either raise the price so that it's actually profitable for them, or if they totally redesign the unit and save a ton of money in the manufacturing process and therefore make some actual profit on it's current price.

Well, considering how long I saw sony ship us playstation one units to our store since I've worked there from 2002, it's probably safe to say Microsoft will continue making units for a little while. The more important question though is why ask? All answers are useless speculations. Let's just wait and see.

[Anthony1]

Why stop?
Its still a powerfull system, I could understand stoping game porduction if the system was much weaker then the PS2 (making porting jobs much more difficult). But as is the system is still viable plus there are many units in households thoughtout the world.


Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell. Once somebody can go into a store and buy a XBOX 360, then what is the motivation for them to continue to produce the old system that causes them to loose money?

Now, are they going to stop making games for XBOX 1? No. Of course not. They will still make games for the old XBOX, probably all the way into 2007, (by the way I'm talking about 1st party Microsoft games, not 3rd parties. 3rd parties will probably make games for it all the way till 2009 or so). But why would they continue to make the old hardware, if they are losing money on the old hardware, and they would actually rather have somebody buy a 360. In a way the old XBOX would actually be competing with the new one.

It just doesn't make sense for them to continue to produce old XBOX systems, unless they either raise the price so that it's actually profitable for them, or if they totally redesign the unit and save a ton of money in the manufacturing process and therefore make some actual profit on it's current price.

Ok they should continue making the Xbox becouse companys will still create more games for the system, there for need a licence from Microsoft to do so. That is why I dont think theyll stop anytime soon.


Publishers are going to continue releasing XBOX 1 games regardless if any more XBOX 1 systems are sold. There are enough XBOX systems in the U.S. already to ensure that new software will come out all the way to at the very least 2008.

[Anthony1]

Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell. Once somebody can go into a store and buy a XBOX 360, then what is the motivation for them to continue to produce the old system that causes them to loose money?

Now, are they going to stop making games for XBOX 1? No. Of course not. They will still make games for the old XBOX, probably all the way into 2007, (by the way I'm talking about 1st party Microsoft games, not 3rd parties. 3rd parties will probably make games for it all the way till 2009 or so). But why would they continue to make the old hardware, if they are losing money on the old hardware, and they would actually rather have somebody buy a 360. In a way the old XBOX would actually be competing with the new one.

It just doesn't make sense for them to continue to produce old XBOX systems, unless they either raise the price so that it's actually profitable for them, or if they totally redesign the unit and save a ton of money in the manufacturing process and therefore make some actual profit on it's current price.

Well, considering how long I saw sony ship us playstation one units to our store since I've worked there from 2002, it's probably safe to say Microsoft will continue making units for a little while. The more important question though is why ask? All answers are useless speculations. Let's just wait and see.



Comparing the PSone to the current XBOX really isn't a valid comparison. When Sony redesigned the playstation they saved alot of money in the manufacturing process and they actually made a nice little profit on every PSone that was sold. But with the XBOX, it's a totally different scenario. Microsoft is still losing money on every console they sell. The only way they can make a profit is to raise the price to $199.99 and even then the profit wouldn't be very significant.


And the reason that I'm asking this question, is because I personally think it's a very interesting situation that Microsoft is creating for themselves. Although I plan on buying a XBOX 360 the day it comes out, I personally think it's a mistake by Microsoft to come out so early, and I find it to be a very interesting pickle that they are going to be in, in terms of how to handle the whole XBOX 1 and XBOX 360 situation.

Normally it's not that big of an issue when a company decides to release a new system. Usually they continue to make the older system for a couple of years more, but with the XBOX this is totally uncharted territory considering the fact that they are actually losing money off of every unit sold.

[petewhitley]

I hope they keep making them, if only because I would like to see the online community on Xbox (1) keep going for some time. If Microsoft is smart they'll have individual Xbox Live accounts work with both the Xbox and the Xbox 360.

[Cryomancer]

I'd imagine that to be very probable. Supposedly Live will be part of longhorn as well...so I'd say eventually all microsoft games, xbox or pc, will be part of Live. It's hard to say how they'll handle the PC side of that though...

[Jasoco]

I picked option C because I truly would like to see them try to cram an Xbox into a smaller case. I doubt it will happen, but it's the only one I can see happening.

What's with "Raise the price"? Why would they raise it? Not as long as Sony's costs $150.


To earn meseta. :roll:You didn't make much with that post.

[hezeuschrist]

The console will run the course of it's life like any other console. They'll follow the same model Nintendo did for the N64, or the SNES, or what Sega did with the Saturn when the Dreamcast came out. It'll run the course of its useful life and that'll be the end of it. Its useful life does not expire in 2006, thats a garantee.

The issues of profitability was a non-factor for Microsoft in this round, and just because the next round will begin in November doesn't mean the theory changes for this generation.

They'll probably re-release the system at some point as most major US consoles go through some kind of revision over the span of their lives.

[Gemini-Phoenix]

Ok, firstly, is the November launch accurate? I have a feeling that teh date will slip to closer to christmas, if not after the new year.

Secondly, I assume it will get a launch in Japan first - If that is the case, then is this November date for the Japanese launch, or for the US / European launch?


Ok, down to the matter at hand - I reckon they will probably do a redesign (A la PSone / PStwo) but maybe cut out teh hard drive feature. Or, they will just condense everything into the size of a DreamCast.


Honestly - Is there even any real reason why the Xbox is so huge three years after it was launched? Just look how much smaller they made the PS2 (Bearing in mind half the original PS2 was just an empty space)

[Captain Wrong]

I don't really understand the purpose of making this thread...

To earn meseta. :roll:

You don't suppose, do ya? ;)

I keed I keed.

[slip81]

They'll probably do like Sony did, make a redesign and contiue to sell it untill there is zero interest.

[Richter]

if they release a slim model and cut out the HD, perhaps it'll get replaced with some solid state memory? Yea, 8 BG of that stuff is much, maybe drop it down to 1 or 2 BGs?

[poopnes]

OK here's my two cents.

1) The 360 will launch this year, probably late November.

2) MS will stop manufacturing XBox's sometime this year. They will make enough to last through most of the holidays, and that will be it.

If rumor is to be believed there will be 2 versions of the 360, and one of them will have backwards compatibility.

I do not see a price-drop unless there is one for the PS2. With the XBox still selling so well, there's no need for them to loose even more for each unit they sell.

3) And that's the third point. MS is still loosing money on every XBox they sell. That's why (again speculation/rumor) the 360 base model will not include a hard drive. If the XBox didn't include a HD there's a good probability they'd be turning a profit right now.

4) MS has never said they would still be producing hardware units, just that they would be supporting the XBox through 2007. They might still be producing software, not hardware.

MS obviously feels the XBox brand name is strong enough that they can launch a new platform a mere 3 years later. The XBox 1 was just a test bed for MS, I think they've stated this in the past. A lot of this was just my speculation, but I feel pretty strongly that this is the way its going to be.

[poopnes]

Ok, down to the matter at hand - I reckon they will probably do a redesign (A la PSone / PStwo) but maybe cut out teh hard drive feature. Or, they will just condense everything into the size of a DreamCast.

Sorry to make another point but I wanted to comment on this. The HD is required for the current hardware. Its something they can not get rid of. Sure they can slim the size of the hardware down, but its probably not worth it. Its the HD that's costing them big. Thus the base 360 will not include one, and the "upgraded" model will (and will be backwards compatible).

[Gzilla23]

They will redesign the X-Box at some point just like every other major console has done in the end of its life. I imagine at some point after the launch of the Xbox 360 they will also lower Xbox 1 prices and just clear them all out. Look to history for the future.

[NintendoMan]

Well, my vote goes for that MS will lower the price of XBOX brand new to maybe around 99.99 or a little higher. I will wait til they go even lower though until I finally pick up an xbox. Hopefully with about 50+ 9.99 or less games too!
(I am talking about in a year or two or three when every store is clearancing there xbox stuff)

[Anthony1]

The console will run the course of it's life like any other console. They'll follow the same model Nintendo did for the N64, or the SNES, or what Sega did with the Saturn when the Dreamcast came out. It'll run the course of its useful life and that'll be the end of it. Its useful life does not expire in 2006, thats a garantee.

The issues of profitability was a non-factor for Microsoft in this round, and just because the next round will begin in November doesn't mean the theory changes for this generation.

They'll probably re-release the system at some point as most major US consoles go through some kind of revision over the span of their lives.


I'm sorry, but I would have to say that I disagree with you on this. It's not going to run the course of it's life like any other console. The XBOX isn't like any other console that has come before. The components that are inside of it, are specific parts that can't really be replaced with any inexpensive parts. A number of the parts are provided by outside companies that they have to pay a fee for, for every XBOX sold. The processor is from Intel, the graphics chip from Nvidia. It's not like Intel and Nvidia are all of a sudden going to change the contracts that they've already signed and say, "Ok, you got a new system coming out, so you want to actually make a small profit on the old one to continuing manufacturing it, so we will sell you the Processor and Graphics Chip for half of the normal price that was agreed upon".

That isn't going to happen. That's the reason that they are still losing some money on every XBOX sold.

There isn't any incentive for them to continue selling old XBOX systems, as long as they have 360's available for sale. Especially if they are actually losing money on the old XBOX. Also, you have to factor in the fact that the factories that are making the old XBOX might start making the 360, and you have a limited capacity. Certainly the 360 is going to be the priority once it's available.

I actually think that sometime later this year they are going to completely halt production of the current XBOX. They will have enough systems for the expected Holiday sales, and then a few that will last into January and February and March 2006, but then that will be it.

I would be absolutely shocked if they are actually manufacturing XBOX 1's in 2006. It's not going to happen. A redesign isn't going to happen either. Again, with the Intel Chip and the Nvidia Chip it's just not feasable, plus the hard drive scenario and everything else. It's not going to happen.

Also, I don't see them raising the price of the XBOX 1. Even thought technically it would be justifyable for them to do so, the "great unwashed" won't understand why the price went up.

For all you speculators and profiteers out there, you know the people that bought extra PSP's to try to sell them on Ebay for an extra $100 above the retail price, you might want to think about buying a XBOX later this year and just sitting on it. I think in the second hand market, a regular XBOX 1 is actually going to go up in price in mid 2006.

The reason why? Because you won't be able to buy one at a store!!!!

[Anthony1]

Well, I don't want to say I told you so, but.....


I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/05/16/news_6124969.html

[RetroYoungen]

I think they'll probably choose to slow down production on XBox games through till whenever, then quietly let out that they won't support it anymore. That's a safe road to take, and I can see them doing something like that.

[Sniderman]

Well, I don't want to say I told you so.

Then spare us all your tirade and don't.

[Anthony1]

I think they'll probably choose to slow down production on XBox games through till whenever, then quietly let out that they won't support it anymore. That's a safe road to take, and I can see them doing something like that.


I think they will keep making XBOX 1 software all the way through Xmas of 2008, but as for the hardware, well, it's days are numbered.

By mid 2006, you won't be able to buy a brand new XBOX 1 anywhere.

[Anthony1]

Well, I don't want to say I told you so.

Then spare us all your tirade and don't.



Look normally, I don't do the I told you so stuff, but when I first brought this topic up, most people thought I was crazy to even consider that Microsoft would completely halt production on XBOX 1.


But apparently that is the reality. The big question now is how many XBOX 1 systems will there be in the supply chain for Xmas 2005?

If Nvidia is going to stop supplying Microsoft with the Graphics chip on August 1st, that would suggest that Microsoft has decided to end production of the XBOX 1, but they probably want to avoid a PR disaster, and still have a pretty good number of XBOX 1 systems for sale this Xmas, but once all of those units are gone, then that's it.

If Joe Sixpack walks into a Walmart next March looking for a XBOX 1, he's going to walk out empty handed. Either that, or with more dept on his credit card and a XBOX 360.

[AB Positive]

Time magazine has also reported that the last batch of video chipsets was shipped from NVidia to microsoft, meaning that the end for the first xbox production is definitly near, they literally won't have the vid cards to make them anymore.

-AG

[WanganRunner]

It's already hella tough to find a PSOne brand new. I don't think they're in production anymore.

I can see why they'd halt Xbox production...

If 360 doesn't have backwards compatibility with every Xbox game, I'll be pissed.

Microsoft will absolutely, positively NOT hike Xbx1 prices though, they do NOT care about the loss they are taking, they really don't. It's just not a concern for them. They're still making money on game licensing, so videogames are a break-even business for them, which essentially means they're building this enormous market share for FREE, which is pretty nice....

[Jasoco]

I do hope the BC on the 360 is fully compatible as well. But I would have liked it better had they built a TiVo into it. Save literally acres on my table. If it's supposed to be an Entertainment hub, it should have a DVR (TiVo is a must) and a DVD burner as well as networking. (To all computers, ANY computers, not just that Windows Media Center shit. I want to access the MP3's and video files on my Mac too.) The HD should also be 500-1000GB and able to rip your DVD's for quick access. It should also have customizable user interfaces with full support from Apple and an Apple created UI so I don't have to put up with what Microsoft thinks is intuition.

Also, it should cook me breakfast in the morning as I never have time to do it myself.

Is that too much to ask?

[Arcade Antics]

Look normally, I don't do the I told you so stuff, but when I first brought this topic up, most people thought I was crazy to even consider that Microsoft would completely halt production on XBOX 1.
Where?


But apparently that is the reality.
*goes to store*
*looks for new Dreamcast*
*looks for new N64*
*looks for new Saturn*
*looks for new Gameboy Color*
*looks for new SNES*

Look, normally I don't do the "duh" stuff, but... DUH. :)


The big question now is how many XBOX 1 systems will there be in the supply chain for Xmas 2005?
How is that a big question? Who even cares? If someone doesn't have an Xbox by now, it's a good bet that they don't care if they get a new or a used one. They can easily pick up a used one anywhere, and if they're waiting until Xmas 2005 or later, they oughta be able to find a used one for $50 or less. Just like every other console since the dawn of time.

We're not talking about halting the production of bread or money, it's an old game system, and every old game system stops getting produced after a while. Scooby and his pals just called to say there's no mystery here.


If Joe Sixpack walks into a Walmart next March looking for a XBOX 1, he's going to walk out empty handed. Either that, or with more dept on his credit card and a XBOX 360.
I know Joe Sixpack, and he said he doesn't care if he gets an old XB or a new one. He's been saving up his money from the sales of his bathtub moonshine, so either way he'll get an Xbox.

[anagrama]

Anthony1 pointless speculation threads to end soon (for real!!)


If only... :roll:

[Lemmy Kilmister]

I really don't see the big deal in this. I mean, why does it matter that Microsoft decided to end production of the current Xbox? It's isn't like all the xbox's of the world are suddenly going to disappear or explode. If anything it would make it easier to find a cheap used Xbox at EB or Ebay because of it.

[Anthony1]

I really don't see the big deal in this. I mean, why does it matter that Microsoft decided to end production of the current Xbox? It's isn't like all the xbox's of the world are suddenly going to disappear or explode. If anything it would make it easier to find a cheap used Xbox at EB or Ebay because of it.



The fact that next February or March, somebody trying to get a new XBOX at Best Buy or Wal-Mart or Target isn't going to be able to get one is a HUGE FREAKING DEAL, whether you like to believe so or not.


Although most of us are going to move on to XBOX 360 or PS3 or Revolution, there are scores of lower income people that would very much like to buy the regular XBOX 1 for $149.99.

They would like to buy a "new" one. The fact that they aren't even going to have that option is a pretty freaking big deal.

In fact, I think it's totally unprecidented in the History of Video Games, when we are talking about a "major" console with considerable marketshare, and it's production being halted so quickly. This has never, ever happened before. Not this quickly after the introduction of a successor.

The XBOX 360 will be less than 90 days old, and you won't be able to find a Xbox 1 brand new anywhere. Except for maybe on Ebay from some profiteer that is going to jack the price way up.

Give me an example of any other "major" console that stoped production while it was still a very viable machine with a nice chunck of market share. There isn't any.

Look at the NES, how long was it manufactured after the arrival of the SNES. Look at the Genesis, how long was it manufactured after the arrival of the Saturn. Look at the Playstation, you can still buy a brand new one at stores right now!!!

This is definitely an unprecidented move by Microsoft, and there are going to be some unpleasant ramifications from this decision. I'm sure that Microsoft looked at this seriously and came to the conclusion that they have no other choice but to stop production, and that there will be some very frustrated and dissapointed consumers looking to buy a bran new XBOX 1 next year, but they are going to have to live with that.


I guarantee that once the official news comes out about this, it's going to be a huge headline for every gaming magazine, website, etc, etc. This is going to be some huge, and somewhat shocking news.

[Griking]

Why stop?
Its still a powerfull system, I could understand stoping game porduction if the system was much weaker then the PS2 (making porting jobs much more difficult). But as is the system is still viable plus there are many units in households thoughtout the world.


Why stop?

Did you read my post? They are still losing money on every XBOX system they sell.

...nevermind

i won't get suckered into it. :shameful:

[Nature Boy]

The fact that next February or March, somebody trying to get a new XBOX at Best Buy or Wal-Mart or Target isn't going to be able to get one is a HUGE FREAKING DEAL, whether you like to believe so or not.

So no matter what *anybody* else's opinions are, this is a huge deal because you're right irrefuteably? Because this is what I'm reading.

And you wonder why people don't want to get in on conversations with you :roll:

Who is it a big deal to anyway? Microsoft? Why would it be, if, as you claim, they still lose money on it? The consumer? I'll tell you something my friend - people who want something don't go into one place and then give up. If they hear that Xbox1s aren't available new anymore, they'll look for used ones. Or they'll buy something else entirely, like a PS2 or 'cube or whatever. Life will go on...


In fact, I think it's totally unprecidented in the History of Video Games, when we are talking about a "major" console with considerable marketshare, and it's production being halted so quickly. This has never, ever happened before. Not this quickly after the introduction of a successor.

I think people are much more torn up over the Dreamcast halting prematurely (with no successor) than they will be over the Xbox halding prematurely with a successor.


I guarantee that once the official news comes out about this, it's going to be a huge headline for every gaming magazine, website, etc, etc. This is going to be some huge, and somewhat shocking news.

In your opinion. In mine, I don't see it being that big of a deal really. I don't see "EGM" touting "Xbox no longer produced" on the front of their magazone as a headline. There will be an article, sure, but the newest 360/PS3/Rev game will get more press than an older console stopping it's inevitable production.

[Kid Ice]

Give me an example of any other "major" console that stoped production while it was still a very viable machine with a nice chunck of market share. There isn't any.


Colecovision?

Super Nintendo?

Dreamcast?

[Daria]

Well, I don't want to say I told you so, but.....


I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/05/16/news_6124969.html




Microsoft to stop buying Nvidia chips by August 1


The statement indicates that Microsoft will very likely discontinue Xbox production...


Oh please, the article's just speculation. Maybe they've got a shitload of graphical chips already or prehaps they'll release and "XboXone" type dealy with alternate cheaper hardware.

The article takes one fact and from it jumps to only one of several possible conclusions.

[Anthony1]

Give me an example of any other "major" console that stoped production while it was still a very viable machine with a nice chunck of market share. There isn't any.


Colecovision?

Super Nintendo?

Dreamcast?


I don't know enought about the Colecovision and it's market share and when it stopped being produced to comment about that. But as for Super Nintendo, not even close. You could still buy a brand new Super Nintendo over one year after the N64 came out. I remember seeing a brand new one being sold in Xmas 1997, and the N64 came out in late September 1996. I'm pretty sure you could still find a new one if you looked in 1998.

But the XBOX is going to be totally gone less than 90 days after the release of the 360. So there is no comparison with the SNES.

As for Dreamcast, I said "viable" system. The Dreamcast was a system that died out. It wasn't viable, at least from a business standpoint it wasn't. And the Dreamcast didn't have a successor to it, so that doesn't count.

Regarding the Colecovision, did it have a successor?


There are 3 requirements to be met:

1. The system that is having it's production halted still needs to be a viable system, like the XBOX is still very viable.

2. The system that is having it's production halted needs to have another system replacing it by the same manufacturer.

3. The system needs to have been totally unavailable to purchase brand new in "normal" retail channels less than 90 days after the successor is introduced. Heck, I'll give you 6 months, or even a year, much less 90 days!

If any system meets those 3 requirements, then I would like to hear about it.

[Anthony1]

If they hear that Xbox1s aren't available new anymore, they'll look for used ones. Or they'll buy something else entirely, like a PS2 or 'cube or whatever. Life will go on...



I didn't say this was going to be a earth shattering event, and that life won't go on, but I was trying to say that this is going to be a pretty big deal, and people are acting like it's no big deal at all.

There are going to be some pissed off consumers.

Is it going to be the end of the world for them? No. But still, there are definitely going to be some pissed off consumers. Joe Sixpack isn't going to understand why he can't still buy a brand new XBOX 1. He's going to be pissed that he can't buy a brand new one.

Now, does that mean he's going to head to Redmond, WA with a Nuclear Device? No, but he will be pretty damn pissed.

Will he buy a PStwo instead, or a Cube or a PS3 or whatever? Sure, he might. Will he buy a used XBOX off Ebay or someplace? Sure, he might.

But I'm just saying that this is a move by Microsoft that isn't going to be without it's consequences. There will be some XBOX owners that will have old XBOX 1's that maybe aren't working anymore, and they would like to get a new one, and they won't be able to, and they are going to be really pissed off.

I know I would be pissed.

[Nature Boy]

Is it going to be the end of the world for them? No. But still, there are definitely going to be some pissed off consumers.

So what? I fail to see how a few pissed off people matters at all, let alone becoming "a big deal."

Do you think Microsoft will collapse under the weight of all these so called pissed off people, since they'll be doing who knows what with their Xbox 1 money? Or that the video game industry as we know it will collapse? Or something else even more unprobable?

You're trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill, and nobody is buying it. In the scheme of things it'll barely be enough cards for a hand, let alone a big deal.

[sharp]

I think Microsoft keeps the X-Box 1 till somewhere half 2006 and then stops selling the hardware, maybe they will search a oppertunity to produce a cheaper version, but they certainly will stop producing an 'old' console if they don't make a profit on the console itself.

But I'm not from Mircosoft so I don't know anything usefull to say about this, so it's just what I think.

[Kid Ice]

There are 3 requirements to be met:

1. The system that is having it's production halted still needs to be a viable system, like the XBOX is still very viable.

2. The system that is having it's production halted needs to have another system replacing it by the same manufacturer.

3. The system needs to have been totally unavailable to purchase brand new in "normal" retail channels less than 90 days after the successor is introduced. Heck, I'll give you 6 months, or even a year, much less 90 days!


4. Name of system must begin with an X.

[The-Bavis]

It's just a business decision by Microsoft. There are no strict rules on game consoles being produced into the successor's life. It has just happened that way in the past. Why would Microsoft keep "losing money" on each console for a system that they planned to make money on by (A) selling software and (B) beginning to grab market share for successive console generations? If they followed this plan, when "Joe S. P." who is apparently poor, and has a $150 check coming to him that was delayed for over a year buys this XBOX 1 if it were available, he isn't going to be buying a lot of games at the same time. If he is, he's going used. Either way, Microsoft gets nothing. Maybe they get customer loyalty for five years down the road when the 360 costs $150, but that's a big gamble and might again not gain them much or any profit.

Seems like a smart decision to me by Microsoft, who seems to know what they're doing in business.

[Anthony1]

For everybody that thinks that this news is such a minor deal, I would like you to read a portion of an interview that Gamespot had with Michael Pachter, a senior analyst from Wedbush Morgan Securities:



GS: Going into E3 week you probably had an idea of what would transpire in the transition year, next calendar year. After you've been here and heard the pitches, you've picked up a little bit of the vibe, maybe you've seen some games....Can you give me an idea what's going to happen next calendar year?

MP: The big surprise to me is that Microsoft is not taking any more Nvidia chip-sets after this quarter. And that means to me that once Microsoft runs out of the chips that they've inventoried, that they've stored to make future Xboxes, there won't be anymore Xbox.

I don't know how many that is. Microsoft was kind of cryptic about it. They very artfully stated that they would support the Xbox well into 2006. They didn't say they would produce the Xbox well into 2006. I don't think they would stockpile more than those, and so we may see Xbox discontinued by the end of this year.

GS: Are they leaving money on the table with that move?

MP: They aren't leaving profits on the table because they're not making any money on the Xbox hardware.

I think what their view is, and I'm guessing because they haven't announced it, is that if they stop making Xboxes, but you like our product, you'll buy the 360, so that will help the 360 installed base to grow more rapidly.

The problem is, what retailer is going to carry current generation Xbox games next year if there's no Xbox being made? If you remember back to the N64 when the Game Cube came out, we saw no more N64s. What happened to N64 games? They disappeared.


This guy is a senior analyst, that is actually paid a very handsome salary to determine what is going on in the video game industry from a business standpoint, and this guy actually felt that this might have been the most suprising thing that he learned at e3. So this is definitely a pretty big deal, for all of those that thought that this was very minor and insignificant.

[omnedon]

The Xbox upgrading scene needs Xboxes to upgrade.

Old Xboxes (if used unmodded) inevitably wear out the DVDrom drives.

I'll keep as many working as I can for everyone. LOL

www.oldschoolgamer.ca

[googlefest1]

thanks omnedon - as long as your holder of the xbox defribulator, life can go on

why does it have to be joe six pack thats pissed? Why can't it be larry briefcase? or suzy home maker?

I dont get all the comotion about this - it sounds like someone is paniking for a lame reason - if you want more xboxes - go and stockpile them

[Nature Boy]

So this is definitely a pretty big deal,

Sorry to disappoint, but you're still making mountains out of molehills. I can just as easily twist what he said to my point of view as you did to yours.

Why is he using the N64/Gamecube as an example? It's not quite right for one simple reason: backwards compatibility. 'cube doesn't have it, 360 does. If his only reason for suspecting games will disappear is that it happened to the N64, it's flawed.

[goatdan]

Holy crap! Holy crap! Holy crap!

I don't know what to do. Microsoft is going to stop production of the Xbox, so if I want a new one, I have to buy it now... and if I want one after they stop, I'll have to buy a used one!

This is TOTALLY HORRIBLE!

I will spend the rest of my day panicking about what to do...

[anagrama]

I must protest at your changing of the topic title rendering my prior comment context-less.

[The-Bavis]

I must protest at your changing of the topic title rendering my prior comment context-less.

I think this is at least the third title for this Chicken Little thread.

[Nature Boy]

I must protest at your changing of the topic title rendering my prior comment context-less.

I think this is at least the third title for this Chicken Little thread.

Claim wild things, denounce anyone whose opinion differs, find an expert to back your claim, and then change the subject so that you look more informed. And what does it get you? A bunch of people who will probably ignore everything he says from now on. Bravo.

[RJ]

InsaneDavid wrote:
To earn meseta.

Not so sure about that- he doesnt seem to use it for anything, unless he's planning a splurge.

Glad to know I'm not the only one who feels like I do...ever since I was rebuked for one of his "Top 10" posts (near the end of page 2)

http://www.digitpress.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21549&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

I LISTED 10 SNES GAMES, DAMMIT!!!

[Anthony1]

InsaneDavid wrote:
To earn meseta.

Not so sure about that- he doesnt seem to use it for anything, unless he's planning a splurge.

Glad to know I'm not the only one who feels like I do...ever since I was rebuked for one of his "Top 10" posts (near the end of page 2)

http://www.digitpress.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21549&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

I LISTED 10 SNES GAMES, DAMMIT!!!


You know what, I re-read that post, and looking back on it, I guess is does make me look like a pretty big asshole. I'm sorry I went off on you like that. It wasn't that I was trying to be super rude or anything, it was just that I was very serious about having a very accurate list, and when you had Hal Golf in there, I knew that this must have been a list of games that you had personally, and I wanted everybody to look at the entire library of SNES games when making their lists.

But no question, I came off as a total ass in my response to your list, and I appologize for that.

After all, I'm Mr. Self Important Pretentious Asswhipe

[Jagasian]

The Xbox 1.5 has already been released. Most people don't realize this, but there are many different revisions of the original Xbox. Some even look different externally (the DVD tray looks different when opened). My Xbox is either a version 1.4 or 1.5. I can't remember. The latest version is 1.7. The main differences are the internals: motherboard, chips, and DVD drive. I do know that my Xbox has the Focus video chip inside because when I originally tried to soft-mod my Xbox, it had corrupted graphics... but this was quickly fixed by a new version of the soft-mod.

That is another thing that most people don't know about: Xbox's do not need mod-chips to be modded. You can use a free software based mod, which is easier to apply and to undo if you ever want to restore your Xbox to factory fresh status.