Minish Math (re: Figurines)

[Nature Boy]

Any other math-types out there agonizing (or who agonized) over how many shells to spend when trying to get the figurines?

So far I'm not sure why I'd want to spend more than one, unless I get so fed up with the whole process (it's a lot of stupid button presses) that I just snap.

For reference: I'm at 55 figurines, and my probability is just below 50% (say 45%). Even when it's as low as 20%, putting in one per turn and taking 5 turns (on average) is a heck of a lot cheaper than spending even two per turn, let alone say 30 per turn (which would give you a 50% chance).

(Normally I hate collecting stuff in games, but this probability thing has me hooked!!!)

[The-Bavis]

I assume it's like rolling the dice. Dice have no memory and if it's really a random program, the figurine guy's machine shouldn't have a memory either. If you pay to up your odds, you have a better chance at winning on a single play, but your payoff is smaller (i.e. you took more losses to get the win).

I'm thinking that now that you're down around the 50% and below area, it's to your benefit to risk more shells. How many, I don't know.

[Nature Boy]

I'm thinking that now that you're down around the 50% and below area, it's to your benefit to risk more shells. How many, I don't know.

I disagree.

35% took me quite a few pulls at 1 shell (didn't count, but it was more than 5). After that I didn't have to do more than 2 again until I got to 27% (which was 5 again). Now that I'm below 20% it's taken me 5-6 pulls the last couple of times (18 & 17%).

So I'm still ahead I think. 6 pulls at 17% was still only six shells. Whereas if I bumped it up to 23% (by spending 6 shells right off the top) I'm still more likely to need a second 6 shell pull, which would, on average, have meant 24ish shells.

You're right about the 'no memory' bit, which is why I said "on average" above (and in my first post). I'm starting to lose patience though so I might start bumping it up anyways....

[The-Bavis]

Well, I think of everything in terms of craps, because that's my game. If you read a statistically based guide to craps, you will learn that putting more money on the table to increase your odds of winning (and decreasing house advantage) is always to your benefit in the long run. This is why if you can swing it, it's to your advantage to put 2x, 3x, 4x... odds down on the good bets. You shrink the house advantage (although the house always maintains some advantage) the more you add. I won't go into specifics beyond that, though. You just have to trust me.

I have no doubt that you got on a good streak there, but if you were able to play this "game" to infinity, you would end up being ahead by paying more shells. That being said, however, is the whole appeal of gambling. Trying to beat the odds. That's why I was specific about the 50%. While you're above 50%, you have an advantage, but once your chances of winning dip below that level, it starts to payoff to up your odds.

This little game is a bit different than real gambling since it's just shells that you "earn" by cutting up bushes randomly and there are only so many times you can physically play before all the figurines are gone.

[joshnickerson]

Man, that reminds me I still haven't finished all my Kinstone fusions either... but then again, I might've missed a couple that were one-time only...

Eh, screw it. I beat the game, that's good enough for me. LOL

[Nature Boy]

I paid 15 shells to bump up my % to 30. It took 3 pulls, or 45 shells, instead of 6 pulls of 6 shells.

The problem I have with the craps association is that you have to calculate the probabilities differently, don't you? With the figurine thing the % goes down each time because I'm still selecting from the same pool with each pull (and I'm assuming that the probability of getting any given figuring is the same across the board - anybody know different (or anybody else reading this? :) )). With craps (which I know little about admittedly), the % you have of rolling the right numbers changes based on what you rolled the first time, doesn't it?

[The-Bavis]

I kind of wish someone else would chime in as well.

How do you know it took 3 pulls of 15 instead of 6 pulls of 6? The problem with this game is that you can't really directly compare two results because as you stated, the pool of possible wins decreases every time. You'd have to have several saved games running and comparing.

As far as the craps rolls go, the % does not change depending on what you just rolled. This is the meaning behind "the dice have no memory". With one die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular number. If you roll it right after that, you still have a 1/6 chance of rolling that number. Now, if you decide that you're going to try and get the same number twice in a row and you want to know the odds of rolling that combination before you start, that's different.

For the figurines, seems to me we're more along the lines of the single event odds and not a string of odds.

[Nature Boy]

I kind of wish someone else would chime in as well.

Unfortunately math isn't usually a popular topic :)


How do you know it took 3 pulls of 15 instead of 6 pulls of 6? The problem with this game is that you can't really directly compare two results because as you stated, the pool of possible wins decreases every time. You'd have to have several saved games running and comparing.

If I was gonna be a pure scientist, you're right. That's what I'd have to do. But I don't think it's *totally* unreasonable to compare my results that were only 1% apart for liklihood. It's not sound, and as you said I wish someone else would chime in with their experiences, but it is what it is.

I'm below 10% for 1 shell now, so I just bite the bullet and spend until I get to 51%. I'm dead out of shells, with 29ish left to go, but I just couldn't handle the multiple pulls anymore :)


As far as the craps rolls go, the % does not change depending on what you just rolled. This is the meaning behind "the dice have no memory". With one die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular number. If you roll it right after that, you still have a 1/6 chance of rolling that number. Now, if you decide that you're going to try and get the same number twice in a row and you want to know the odds of rolling that combination before you start, that's different.

I don't disagree about the dice having no memory - they definitely don't. But the odds of you continually not rolling a 5 say decreases as you keep rolling. Eventually you'll get that 5.


For the figurines, seems to me we're more along the lines of the single event odds and not a string of odds.

We need someone with a masters in math to tell us if that's the case or not. I think it depends on how it's determined what figurine you get. When I bump up my odds to 51% what does that mean? We'll probably never know :)

[The-Bavis]

Thought I'd raise up this dying thread that is really just a conversation between me and Nature Boy. I was thinking about this some more as I played (I still haven't finished the main game) and was thinking about recording percentages of winning, etc. as I try to win figurines. Before starting this, though, I skimmed a few FAQs about the game and figurines. I didn't realize that you can only win figurines of creatures/people you have seen, so there are several (5-6?) that you can't see until you finish it.

So, I am wondering if your percent chance of winning changes as you find more possible figurines or if they just leave it the same depending on how many you have won. Any observations on this? It's important, because it might be to your advantage to not try and win any figurines until finished with the game.

Ah, math....

[drummy]

I thought it was pretty easy getting all the figurines. Maybe I got lucky in getting new ones, but I didn't have too much of a hard time getting all of them. Before I face the last boss (all of his forms), I only had like 6 left. The only problem is that it's time consuming. What I did was save in the town after coming from the left exit, where I would spawn later. It's closest to the figurine shop. Every time I got a duplicate, I would restart the Gameboy and try again. But I guess I have to say I didn't get TOO many duplicates, so I was lucky.

[Nature Boy]

So, I am wondering if your percent chance of winning changes as you find more possible figurines or if they just leave it the same depending on how many you have won. Any observations on this? It's important, because it might be to your advantage to not try and win any figurines until finished with the game.'

I did know this, and I do have an observation.

After you go back and the dude says "I have a new figurine available" there is an increase in your percentage to acquire a new figurine.

It might be best to meet everybody first before buying figurines, so as to belay your decline to below the 50% point. If that's how it works anyway.

(I haven't bought any figurines in awhile - I'm building up my shells first)

[The-Bavis]

Good to know both things. Although, I think I'd rather hunt a bunch of shells than reset the game over and over, but that's just me.

I think I'll just play it cool until the end, unless I get bored or stuck before then that is.