Game industry will crash!!

[PS1Expert]

http://theinquirer.net/?article=27976

Above is a very interesting article. It talks about how the game industry is due for a crash like there was in the 80's. I have thought this for about 2 years that we are due for a crash and I'm happy to see someone else shares my thoughts. What bothers me is because of the next gen development costs, it is almost impossible for a small development house to afford to program on those machines. Instead these houses are being gobbled up by EA, Activision and other publishers. This can't be good for consumers. Honestly, the last generation I have not been excited at all. I stopped playing PS2 years ago, Xbox is my preferred current gen system but I don't even find the games interesting. Games just aren't fun anymore....no long term playability. Am I just bored of games?? RPGs seem to suck on the PS2 compared to PS1 (my opinion). Maybe I'm just old school but the best games were played on Amiga/Atari ST, SNES, and PS1 (in that order).

If there is one argument against this crash idea, it's that games have become a part of our everyday lives and the idustry is too big to die all of a sudden. What do you think?

Lastly, was there really a crash in the 80's? Because once I got sick of my 2600 I opted for the Atari 800 computer and there were plenty of games to play for years...many awesome ones....Jumpman, Lode Runner, ...etc. Even the C64 flourished during this time.

[Oobgarm]

I read the article, and all it seemed like to me was a large Madden Xbox 360 complaint, or a rant from a jaded gamer. If you're going to forecast an industry-wide crash, you better have more examples and facts, and not just some emotional cryassing.

About the 360: Yes, many of the sports games have been reviewed as mediocre. The system has a few good titles to hold it over until more true next-gen games arrive. It's only 3 months, it's not like the end of the world or anything. Of course companies are going to spruce up existing titles in order to have something available at launch. It's happened with almost every system out there. Besides, casual gamers, the TRUE target audience, will eat them up anyway. Give them familiarity and they will come.

The arguement that companies are going by the wayside is one that can't be refuted, but the companies that are have made huge mistakes somewhere in their operation. Acclaim went out since they published shovelware and their high-profile games failed to perform because they weren't fun. 3DO for the same reason. Sega(not out, but scaled back) bowed out from consoles due to poor marketing/support of their systems.

In defense of the fact that games and systems are getting more expensive: EVERYTHING is getting more expensive. Gasoline, food, clothing, homes, automobiles, etc. Games have stayed fairly close to the same price point for a while now, and the fact that they're going up a bit should surprise no one. Companies can only eat so much of their operating costs-something has to be passed onto the consumer at some point.

No matter what, there will always be a market for games. Things might die off somewhat once a new fad pulls the casual gamers away, but I don't see an 80's era crash in our future.

(The 80's crash was focused on dedicated game playing hardware, since computers were able to do more than just play games.)

[Ed Oscuro]

I share the writer's belief that most games aren't as good as they should be, but you know...that's been the case for a long time now.

That's pretty much where I stopped paying attention. Horrible marketing and management decisions led to the crash, and today's gaming execs have a better focus on the business (I'd certainly hope so!)

There's also another big sticking point: The '83 crash seems to have started when Atari did poorly, and other companies who were merely hangers-on at the time were affected worse by the sudden move by retailers to dump product, it seems. That's not at all the case today, where you have three healthy companies vying for the top spot in gaming, and with countless other companies looking to snatch up a piece of the gaming pie.

[djbeatmongrel]

man these industry crash topics always seem like "the sky is falling" discussions. if it happens it happens. gaming as a whole is going to strong for a crash to happen soon. outside of some world economic problem or all 3 next gen systems bombing in sales i dont think we'll see a crash.

[Dangerboy]

If there ever was a crash coming, it will come from a completely different direction, but more on that in a second.

The theory of a "2nd Coming" crash in the video game industry has been a rumor mill buzz word since the first NES deck rolled off of the assembly line. The closest the industry ever got was during the Jaguar / 3DO / CDi era.

The problem during that time is that you had too many people trying to do too many things at once:

a. The Jaguar development was sold out to the lowest bidder and an advertising crew was brought in to cover up the problems (people DID do the math, and the Jag sucked).

b. The 3DO tried too many things and did so few right. Bundle that with few games, too many Video CDs, and freaking outrageous prices all buried it.

c. The CD-I: tabel scraps from a possible Nintendo unit. Nuff' said.

If there is a crash, it will only be half of the industry, but with one important factor: the retail side.

Here's my take on the situation, from both sides of the coin:

First, the 'bad ending'

1. The Industry Crashes
There are only two reasons for the industry to crash:
1. The brand name-blind mainstream follows Sony over the cliff.

The Sony I loved so long ago (and still do) is dead and buried. Ken Kutaragi is doing everything in his power to ruin the very market he took over with the original PSX. 1995 saw Sony going after the exclusives (SNK / Capcom 2D fighters, arcade conversions like Raiden Trad, oddball things like Artdink's library, etc) and basically trying whatever it took to get everyone possible to join along in the fun.

Today's Sony is a take it or leave it over inflated Ego that is reaching frighteningly arrogant proportions, and the PS3 press isn't help at all. If the PS3 is even close to the proposed price points that are floating around ($500+, $80 games) the PS3 will become this generations' Neo Geo and sink to a niche consumer base. Couple that with the fact that for supposedly coming out in spring, we have yet to see any real, honest to god in-game screenshots or in-game movies. Remember how Madden 06 turned out after the trailer fiasco? EA proposes all this joyful support for a system, and then releases insanely hacked/trimmed versions of said games...if the 360 is any consolation, the PS3 Fight Night would only have 5 characters, 2 rings, and that's it.

You'd have to pry my PSX from my cold dead hands, btu you can take my PS2/3 anyday.

2. Retail World domination goes awry
The merger between EB and GameStop, while apparently looking great on paper, means that two of the most competitive giants are now the same entity. Lack of competition means severe loss of some great sales and actual shopping around. Remember what happened when two industry giant competitors merged? Square went down the shitter and Enix suddenly doesn't know how to release a game on time. With too big a company to manage, and companies being down-sized bought up every few months, eventually you have one over-stressed business set-up that goes kapoof.

Or....the good ending
Nothing but good things happens

1. Despite all of the above happening, Nintendo has it covered.

There's a reason why there's still a game industry around; Nintendo doesn't know how to quit. Though always cursed with the 'one odd flaw' of eveything they make, they have always pushed innovation. The Revolution, even if graphically no better than a Game Cube, will provide the same creativity we now see with the DS. Here me out: the Revy' will have the same growing pains as the portable. 8 months of nothing while the developers figure out what to do with the controller. When they get it figured out, WHAM! Suddenly everyone needs to play that wack ass system with the magical wand.

2. Microsoft's growing pains pull through
Regardless of BSOD screen jokes and so forth, it can't be denied that Bill and the boys have been doing whatever it takes to give developers and gamers the system they want. They have a HD system that welcomes both the high-end new games and the classic old school games (Hexcite is awesome), they have middleware for developers and are trying to rectify the shortcomings of their Import trials. Seeing Squaresoft suddenly developing for 360, as well as EA announcing their 'only possible on PS3' Fight Night now arriving on XBox 360 means Microsoft has to be doing something right.

If there's any real crash, it won't happen all at once, nor will happen across the entire board. If anything, it will hopefully just be a wake up call to those that have lost sight of what got them there in the first place.

[gepeto]

I totally agree with the article. The corps are killing the market with there over released sequels to games.

The Ea bosses got people figured out with madden. Release anything people will buy it. I knew madden 06 for the 360 was going to suck. up until the last few weeks they refused to release in game shots. trust me I checked around.
I don't think the article was bashing madden but more so stating fact. Madden 06 for the 360 is junk. They charge an extra 10.00 ripping people off. The product lacked all the features the players were accustomed to.

I laugh when people say (it was built from the ground up)
Bullshit (in other words being lazy)

They bought the nfl rights because the door was closing in them with the competition.

I love this one everybody had a chance for the nfl rights.
Truth is and I will believe this until the day I die.
Ea orchastrated the move from the beginning. cards were always in ea's favor the other companies never stood a chance. Creativty has been stifled by corperate greed.
Don't believe me why isn't nfl 2k5 backward compatable.
Ea's Fight night 2004 is.

Companies have a right to defend there product but not at the consumers expense.

Ubisoft is guilty of killing franchises as well with over releases.
Victims prince of Persia/Brothers in arms/Splinter Cell

Neversoft killed the tony hawk franchise Tony hawk/2/3/4/undeground/underground2/americanwasteland
in a span of a few years.
ea killed the need for speed/def jam /nba street/burnout

Nintendo killed mario/ pinball/ddr

Users arent given a chance to miss games. I see it all the time at the stores. People shocked because new versions of the games they just bought already already having previews of the next versions.
I have been a round gaming for awhile I lived through the 80's crash and will be around for years to come.

People are getting bored and turned off by rehashed new releases. People are getting wiser. Soon the money will stop coming in. Then what?
The industry needs
More creativity.
More restraint on what gets released. Give people a chance to miss a game/series. ( I say pass a law stating no sequel until 2 years has passed)
No matter how much you think times right now for gaming is good. The industry can crash. If you would have asked when colecovision released there system with donkey kong if the industry would crash soon afterwards I would have told you you were nuts.

The most frightening part of the 80's crash was I gaming so much and it was hard for me to see it coming and when it came I didn't even know it. I just thought WOW cheap
games go figure.

[anagrama]

:deadhorse:

[jajaja]

Doubt that it will crash. They are selling games like crazy these days.

[THATinkjar]

I hope it does crash, simply so we don't get "The industry will crash" headlines for a while. In my mind, the "industry" has never been in a better position. It should go from strength to strength.

[kainemaxwell]

If there's a crash, I'll still be happy with what I have, from the PS2 and Dreamcast down to the NES.

[Hiroshi Yamauchi]

If there's a crash, I'll still be happy with what I have, from the PS2 and Dreamcast down to the NES.

Yes, you will be happy with all systems of Nintendo, this is fact.

[swlovinist]

Many on this forum know that about two years ago, I thought the industry was going to the shitter fast(remember the glut of Xmas games?). I have corrected my stance to determine that instead of a crash, I think it will be a slow painful correction that will affect everybody. The 360 is out, and with it are SOME great games, along with several that are meh. While the system is hot right now, the games are not(due to the lack of systems to play them on). This is bad because if Game companies do not have a hot seller for Xmas, thier future plans for games is cut back. Add to the equation that three other game systems are sharing retail space and you have a shitload of choices. This is not even taking into consideration the portable market, which has gotten very croweded(GBA, DS, PSP). Come this next year, you will have the PS3 and Revolution coming into the mix, making it one jumbled mess. Many who work at game stores see the writing on the wall...How are you going to sell to the mainstream public a very expensive system right next to its predecessor that plays just the same? How are game companies going to lure people to buy $60 games when they have been "feasting" off quick price reductions for the past holidays? I dont see games going away, but I do see something changing in the future. The current setup will not work.

[Sebastian]

dude the industry is bigger than ever... games are really going mainstream - they are no longer the 'thing for the geeks"

a crash? give me a break.... is hollywood crashing anytime soon too?

[Arcade Antics]

This type of article has only been making the rounds every six months or so for the last 17 years... :roll:

At some point, you learn to ignore it. LOL

[Arkaign]

I see some interesting points brought up here. I think that a partial crash is at least possible, and I can give examples as to why.

Enron makes a good example of how you cannot lose money on a continual basis without eventually reaping the consequences. Analyst and investor scrutiny is higher than ever, and if a business plan begins to become legendary for being a loser, it can and will have repercussions.

Sony vs. Microsoft could concievably cause massive harm to both companies. If the Xbox business model continually dwindles Microsoft's bottom line, then investors and the board could demand a change in strategy, or to leave the market altogether. On the Sony side of things, a failure to make PS3 profitable could concievably end the company altogether.

Gaming has become too versatile to crash entirely, there will proably always be gamers and a market for the product. It's just a question of good and bad business as to who makes it and where this market heads.

Perversely, the 3rd place player has the healthiest standing in pure business terms, when you consider the steady profits and much lower overhead involved, as well as the versatility of the product and licensing.

[Daniel Thomas]

Bah! Serves everyone right for screwing over the Sega Dreamcast. A great games console with superb multiplayer games, and no one bothered to look. Now you're all stuck with paying more and more for the same junk.

I don't think the industry will go away, but it will continue to squeeze and merge into fewer and fewer hands, with less creativitiy and greater reliance on existing formulas.

You see this in Sony and Microsoft's hardware strategy. They have effectively decided that videogame innovation has ended, and it's now only a matter of market saturation. They're all good machines, of course (I will say I really like the 360 joypad), and the game you get to play in the future will be identical to the games you've been playing for the past five years.

Eventually, consumers must balk. At least, that's what common sense would say. Perhaps when software titles top $70 again. Perhaps then. But the business is still very profitable for those at the top, and there's a lot of money to be made from fleecing the nerds for cash.

The consumers have the final say, really. If they'd only vote with their pocketbooks, conditions would change. Upset with rising prices? Then don't spend the damn money. Is this so difficult? Buy the discount titles, or buy used games.

And what's wrong with the older consoles, anyway? Heck, I'd grab a Dreamcast the second a good offer came my way. I'd rather have multiplayer games of Chu Chu Rocket, SF Rush 2049, Virtua Tennis, SF3: Third Strike, Soul Calibur, and NFL2K1 anyway. You could probably get all those games for less than the price of one XBox 360 title.

Oh, and have I mentioned books? Wonderfull little inventions, books. Great way to spend an evening.

[Xizer]

Games industry crash?

Hah!

The game industry cannot crash as long as Nintendo is involved.

Nintendo brings fresh stuff to the table, and they're not going anywhere.

As Microsoft and Sony feature heavy financial problems (Xbox division 4 billion in the hole, Sony on the brink of collapse), Nintendo continues to remain the most profitable.

[PS1Expert]

What are you guys going to do when the PS3 doesn't play used or rental games? (Rumour has it that it won't play those!) With rising prices, I would only buy used or rent them. But if I can't rent, screw it. The system isn't worth it. I think Sony and Microsoft will be disappointed with sales of their next gen systems. I for one am not going to buy one until they come way down in price.

And screwing over the Dreamcast?? I blame Electronic Arts for the death of DC. If only they supported the platform I think it would have gone somewhere. I still think to this day that the DC has better graphics than the PS2. But I don't think the DC could handle a game like GTA.

Anyhow, it's apparent that the best days of videogaming are behind us. We can still find enjoyment with the PS1, DC, SNES, Genesis...etc. With that said, maybe Nintendo's Revolution does have a good chance of surviving after all (because of the option to play older games).

[Push Upstairs]

Assuming Sony does implement some type of "cannot play rental games" for the PS3......that would be one of the stupidest ideas ever.

Either it won't happen or there will be a hack around it. If it stays then Sony will lose. Nobody likes a company telling them what games they can and cannot play on thier respective system.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Games industry crash?

Hah!

The game industry cannot crash as long as Nintendo is involved.

Nintendo brings fresh stuff to the table, and they're not going anywhere.

As Microsoft and Sony feature heavy financial problems (Xbox division 4 billion in the hole, Sony on the brink of collapse), Nintendo continues to remain the most profitable.

I think that Nintendo is insulating themselves for such an event. If you've seen Iwata's keynote @ 9/2005 Tokyo Game Expo he emphasised that very small development teams would find the Rev a viable outlet for their ideas and products. It's been a concern for some time that production costs for the next gen would push out small developers and in reality it already has with the current gen. I think it all boils down to that while Sony and MS are in other markets besides games... Nintendo is solely a game company period. If the game market were to crash Nintendo, on the whole, would be more effected than the other guys. But, a crash may cause Sony and MS to withdraw from the market falling back on their other ventures... while Nintendo is the cheese that stands alone ready to pick up the pieces as they did in '85 with the NES.

Conversely this could all be attributed to a "The End is Nigh" paranoid mentallity... you decide. Or as anagrama eloquently put it... :deadhorse:

:help: Don't forget your sandwich boards and picket signs! LOL

[GameDeals.ca]

The industry WILL crash. It's not a matter or "if" but a matter of "when". The advent of the Internet is changing our world and it is affecting almost every business model. We joke about how we should get into the food industry since "you can't download food". The music industry took the first hit... tv & film are not far behind... then videogames. Budgets are going up... and revenue is not following. More people are pirating their media than ever before (now that the information is well documented online). Not to mention the onslaught of crappy games & "roster update" sequals. There is still a chance that the industry can prevent a crash... but it would take massive change that I doubt they would choose to permit until they are forced to.

[syd]

I don't think the industry is going to crash anytime soon. Sure most of the games aren't as good as they used to be, but that goes for just about everything nowadays. The music industry is getting shittier by the day, and Hollywood is going frantic because they can't think of a new movie so they keep releasing remakes. Eventually there will be another renaissance of new ideas, but the question is how long do we have to wait? And how many terrible remakes/sequels do we have to put up with? LOL

[kevin_psx]

http://theinquirer.net/?article=27976 Above is a very interesting article. It talks about how the game industry is due for a crash like there was in the 80's.

Old news. People have predicted a crash since 1995. Think videogaming is here to stay - like movies.

[Trebuken]

I could imagine a crashing video game market (I hope so, might give me time to catch-up on my collecting), but I do not think it will resemble the 80's crash, where there was just nothing going on in gaming of note. I think it'll be just a flutter where every element of the industry will have to re-evaluate their strategies. If the 80's crash is the Great Depression, the next one will resemble the stock market after 9/11 or the fall of the tech stocks...

Later,
Trebuken

[Joker T]

Video gaming is very big it won't crash this is a bunch of shit.
The guy made some valid opinons but I doubt it.

[Arkaign]

Hmm, if the major industrialized nations with the heavily debt-ridden Fiat-based currency systems go through what is euphemistacally called a 'correction' .. I think it will take Microsoft and Sony straight out of the gaming market for awhile, along with virtually any company already riding slim margins.

A serious economic depression could easily send the purchase power of the dollar to 10% of what it is now. Imagine $20/gallon gas and electricity bills of $3,000.

Hyperinflation is a serious risk that is run when people keep punting off the debt and interest to the following generations.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2004/jan2004/debt-j15.shtml

:( @_@

[lendelin]

Don't worry about a crash -- the game industry crashes for the last twenty years and did pretty well all this time.

Note: the historical analogies between the situation of 1983/84 and today is as non-sensical and idiotic as Bill Clintons comparison between the pre-WWI situation and the Bosnian conflict. Yes, it is so bad and dumb.

[davepesc]

While, I'm not predicting one, I don't see why a crash is so far-fetched.
At the risk of oversimplifying, I think the last crash was the result of too many rushed-out crappy games (check) and something "better" for the masses to flock to in home computers. That is the missing component.

If something comes down the pike that diverts enough people away from console video games, of course there could be a crash.

[kevin_psx]

A serious economic depression could easily send the purchase power of the dollar to 10% of what it is now. Imagine $20/gallon gas and electricity bills of $3,000. Hyperinflation is a serious risk that is run when people keep punting off the debt and interest to the following generations.

Hperinflation? Thought it was caused by government printing too much money - devaluation of the paper dollar?

"This figure, representing credit card and car loan debt, but excluding mortgages, translates into approximately $18,700 per US household. Experts warn that the debt bubble potentially dwarfs the US stock market asset bubble that burst in 2000. "

The bursting debt bubble caused the 1929 Crash. Stocks bought with credit. Issuers demanded payment - people did not have money - stock lost value.

Can see the same thing happening with credit cards - VISA demands payment - consumers don't have it - lose homes. Companies don't have money to repay creditors - companies lay off workers - some go bankrupt.

[ice1605]

Nintendo didn't kill Mario. Anyway, I think that the market will not crash. After all, there are just TOO MANY people who play videogames. Also, some people will accept terrible videogames if Microsoft or Sony stuffs it down their throat. And, the PSX didn't take over the market, the N64 took over by a year after it's release. The only reason PS1 games are still being sold is because of the PS2's PS1 gaming capability. Nintendo can ride out the bad times, but Microsoft and Sony will have a harder time with that. Besides, it would be rather hard to collapse a 100+ year old company that is highly respected in the videogaming market.

[kevin_psx]

the PSX didn't take over the market, the N64 took over by a year after it's release.

???? The PS1 outsold N64 - 90 million to 30 million. "N64 took over" not an accurate statement.

[googlefest1]

i didnt read what others had written (becasue ive read through a ton of these threads already) so if im adding an already mentioned vewpoint disregard this


i think the only way there will be a crash is if the economy takes a bigger turn for the worse -- people right now want the biggest and latest products and new games will continue to be purchased. Sureley there will be a winner and a looser in this next gen area of gameing but i will not say the looser lost due to a video game crash.

[Zadoc]

The last one happened at the height of Atari's power, they were invincible, pumping out hit after hit. Pac-Man, ET, Asteroids, movie tie-ins, overflowing arcades and a rabid fan base. They were in the spotlight of the mainstream press, songs making the top 10, and money coming out of their ears. What could go wrong?





This author hasn't a clue. For starters, Atari was not pumping out the hits at the time of the crash nor was it the height of Atari's power. Atari's 2600 was stale, very stale, and the 5200 was a dismal failure. It was not backwards compatible, it was not the leap in graphics that was promised, and its library consisted of mostly 2600 ports.

The market crashed not because there was a "a flood of games that sucked," but because there weren't strong protections of IP rights. Dozens of companies were allowed to "re-engineer" the 2600, Colecovision and Intellivision. Mattel, CoLeCo and Atari were losing out of grips of cash. Not only that, but console developers weren't making money off of the third party software as they to today.

Unlicensed third parts were churning out crap and the market became flooded worthless junk that the console manufactures had absolutely no control over.

The author is so clueless that he writes, "The last one happened at the height of Atari's power, they were invincible, pumping out hit after hit. Pac-Man, ET, Asteroids..." Asteroids was a vector arcade game that could not be duplicated on the 2600, moreover, Asteroids was released about five years before the crash. As for Pacman, I think we all know that that's a Namco title, the home version of which couldn't hardly be called Pacman at all. Finally, he envokes ET. Since when was this a hit? Somewhere there is a landfill full of this junk.

The reason for the first crash is that console developers didn't have control over their consoles; they do now.

The other reason is that third parties weren't serious businesses, and they were looking to make a quick easy buck. These days third parties invest millions and millions of dollars into a single video game. The industry is very serious and it does rival Hollywood.

Finally, the public takes the game industry serious. Unlike in the 80s, video games are no longer viewed as a fad. They are here to stay and they are well embedded into pop-culture. Their popularity and mainstram acceptance will only grow and swell and time moves forward