I guess we will find out soon if the shortage is real (360)

[Anthony1]

There has been quite a bit of debate as to whether or not the XBOX 360 shortage is real or strategic marketing. With December 25th approaching rapidly, the reality of the situation will be revealed. Is Microsoft doing what Nintendo did back in 1996 with the N64, or is it like the Sony situation of 2000? The Playstation 2 shortage was legitimate, and definitely real, but we all know the Nintendo 64 shortage was a staged event, as a few days prior to Xmas, stores were flooded with N64 systems out of the blue.



So basically it comes down to this. If you can walk into any Toys R Us or Target or Wal-Mart or Costco and buy a XBOX 360 on Friday the 23rd or Saturday the 24th, then it's pretty obvious that this was a staged shortage. On the other hand, if you go to 4 different Wal-Marts and 4 different Targets and 4 different Circuit City's and none of them have any 360's then you know it's a real shortage.


Certainly, either way, part of the shortage is due to the chip yields on such new technology, and the whole strategy of launching in three seperate territories within the span of several weeks. But, if all of a sudden stores are magically flooded with 360's a few days prior to Xmas, then we know that part of this whole shortage situation was contrived.


I've seen it happen before. Back in December of 1996, I was able to get my hands on a extra Nintendo 64 system. They were selling for big money in the classifieds at that time. It was all about Tickle Me Elmo and the Nintendo 64. They were typically selling for $400 and $500, which was quite a premium. Nintendo was shipping units to retailers here and there, but it pretty much was a trickling of systems, and they would be sold out the second they were made available. I was lucky enough to get my hands on a extra N64, and I figured I could sell it for big money, and then be able to buy more N64 games. I figured that if I sold it a few days prior to Xmas, I would get the most money for it. So I took an ad in the classifieds a few days prior to Xmas. I think I was hoping to get $450 for it. Of course, much to my dismay, all of a sudden all the stores magically got flooded with N64 systems, and anybody that wanted a N64 could have walked into any Toys R Us a day before Xmas and buy one. I remember going to a Toys R Us and seeing tons of N64's stacked up in the gaming area. It was pretty amazing considering how scarce they were just a few days prior. You couldn't find a N64 anywhere for weeks and weeks, and then all of a sudden "BOOM!". Right before Xmas Nintendo flooded the market with N64's.


Looking back on it, I'm kinda suprised that Nintendo really didn't get much of any negative press regarding it. It's like the public didn't even realize that it was a "planned" shortage. I think Nintendo had some type of excuse made up for the coincidence of having tons of units magically available a few days prior to Xmas, like they got another factory up and running just in time to get more N64's on store shelves just before Xmas. Yeah, right.

[hezeuschrist]

Half-Real. If ebay didn't exist, I don't think anyone who actually wanted one would have really had a too difficult time finding one during launch week.

If it were completely fake, stores would have already had a bunch of shipments by now, but from what I understand Best Buy's first shipment since launch is nearly a month later (18th). That's no fake shortage. My Gamerush only had 10 preorders and we JUST filled them yesterday, nearly a month to get a measly 10 systems, and we had 5 at launch. If they get a bunch more and can keep supply over demand through the week before christmas, then it certainly looks staged.

But you've also got to ask, how many people still legitimately want a 360? Wal Mart by me got 4 in last sunday and they were gone instantly. They're still fetching a price worth picking one up for ebay before Xmas as it is, but will the demand really hold through the holiday? With best buys in my area all getting between 26-46 systems on Sunday, does the greater Metro Detroit area actually have the demand for another 300 systems? Probably.

Real or fake though, it worked. It sucked me right in and I succumbed to buying a Core on launch day, and you know what? I don't regret it one bit. I haven't had this much plain FUN with a system launch, ever. The three offerings from MS Game Studios are all incredibly well done games and all kept me coming back and downright pining for more while I was away, and that hasn't happened to me since Tales of Symphonia for Gamecube. Before that, who knows when, probably KotoR. But all 3 had me wishing I didn't have to go to work in the afternoon (PDZ, Kameo, and PGR3).

Either way, I vote for real. I can't imagine they would launch before Christmas just to keep systems out of the hands of consumers until one week before the Holiday, not to mention really, really piss off the faithful who preordered months and months ago and still haven't recieved a system.

[Anthony1]

Yeah, I think the shortage is real too. But you never know.


Your store might have only gotten in 10, but I know of a few Costco's that have gotten almost 300 units on two seperate shipments. There have been units at my local Target stores as well. Of course, all these systems are snapped up immediately.


Best Buy is holding their systems back for their special Sunday ad, to try to get a second Black Friday out of it. So you can't really look at what Best Buy is doing as any sort of gauge as to whether the shortage is real or staged.


I will say this, if it is staged, they haven't done it as well as Nintendo did with the N64. Nintendo was masterfull when they did the staged shortage of the N64. They would trickle in just enough systems to have it sell out right away, and they kept doing it over and over, and then a few days prior to Xmas came the flood of N64's to all the stores. If Microsoft is doing a staged shortage, then I think they took too long inbetween shipments. You definitely want to have them sold out for awhile to create the hype and buzz, but I think that they would have staggered the shipments more, and have not so many days go by with no 360's available anywhere.


Also a big difference between the N64 shortage and the 360 shortage is Ebay. I don't even know if Ebay was around in 1996. All the poachers were selling them in the classified ads, and now it's all about Ebay and Craigslist.

[vahn401]

It may be a staged event like what the n64 did. Like what most people know, all best buys are receiving them again and they're going on sale the 18th (sunday). But Best Buy is also receiving more of them a few days later, if i remember, its either tuesday or thursday. I know the store i work at went a whole month after launch without seeing a single unit come in, and then within a week, we're receiving 2 shipments. One week prior to x-mas? looking at it through best buy, it seems similar to the N64.

[Push Upstairs]

It just reminds me of the great PS2 debacle of 2000.

We had some, we had none. We recieved 10, we can only sell 3. We have 5 in back but we have to lie and say we do not have any because they are on hold.

The only real joy i got out of that season was was having two seperate people on two different days calling up and asking if they could purchase a Playstation 9 (from the old PS2 commercials).

One person was obviously joking...but the 2nd was dead serious. x_x

[pacmanhat]

I still refuse to believe the shortage is staged...I think that MS was far too eager to get the system out of the gate and simply didn't take enough time and resources to get the system made in large enough quantities. They dropped the ball on getting the launch they not only wanted, but NEEDED. They could've made twice as many systems as they did and there probably would still be a 'shortage' in the eyes of many (namely, those who can't seem to find one). Considering the zealous nature of the entire launch, I don't see the shortage being anything other than 'oops, we weren't quite ready yet'.

[hezeuschrist]

It just reminds me of the great PS2 debacle of 2000.

We had some, we had none. We recieved 10, we can only sell 3. We have 5 in back but we have to lie and say we do not have any because they are on hold.

The only real joy i got out of that season was was having two seperate people on two different days calling up and asking if they could purchase a Playstation 9 (from the old PS2 commercials).

One person was obviously joking...but the 2nd was dead serious. x_x

Whaa? PS9?

[Ed Oscuro]

Oh man, the Blackfriars blog was awesome. A recap from months ago, here's a paraphrase of one of their entries:

"Apple's ditched IBM because IBM couldn't provide chips fast enough...now we'll see if Microsoft will be able to get parts when Apple couldn't."

[Niku-Sama]

the shortage may or may or may not be real....either way it doesent matter if people arent buying them...granted some of them are bit i have never seen so many for sale threads in so many different message boards for a new just released console

[Push Upstairs]

Whaa? PS9?

Sony had a commercial that showed this really advanced games system that you controlled with your brain or something else obviously sci-fi.

At the beginning it said "Playstation 9" then showed all the advanced BS, then at the very end of the commercial it was like "the beginning..." and it showed the PS2 logo.

Hence the PS9 calls.

[hezeuschrist]

Whaa? PS9?

Sony had a commercial that showed this really advanced games system that you controlled with your brain or something else obviously sci-fi.

At the beginning it said "Playstation 9" then showed all the advanced BS, then at the very end of the commercial it was like "the beginning..." and it showed the PS2 logo.

Hence the PS9 calls.

Ohhh yeah, I remember those commercials.

Kinda suprised it was only 2 people.

[Push Upstairs]

Well, those were the only two people *I* talked to. I didn't always answer the phone and i didnt ask others about getting any calls.

It was brought up at a meeting and a bunch of us joked that, should anyone else call up about a PS9, we were going to tell them that they cost $25,000 dollars.


But i never really heard anything else about the PS9 from customers after that weekend. :/

[Anthony1]

Well it appears that the shortage was legit. More 360's did appear in stores, but still, if you weren't right by the guy that pulled the brand new boxes out of the gray stocking bins, then you didn't get one.

It's kinda weird cause the prices on Ebay and Craigslist dropped dramatically, like all the stores were flooded with 360's but that actually didn't happen.

[hezeuschrist]

Well it appears that the shortage was legit. More 360's did appear in stores, but still, if you weren't right by the guy that pulled the brand new boxes out of the gray stocking bins, then you didn't get one.

It's kinda weird cause the prices on Ebay and Craigslist dropped dramatically, like all the stores were flooded with 360's but that actually didn't happen.

The rush to get one for christmas died, so the kids that ended up being upset are upset and now the parents don't give a damn. People still want one but now time isn't a factor so the willingness to pay through the nose is gone.

But yeah, there hasn't been any more in my store since we filled our preorder allotment and I certainly haven't seen any anywhere else.

[tholly]

yea, i went looking today just to see if stores had more that i could pick one up.....plus i was going out shopping anyway, so it wasnt a special trip...

i checked 2 ebs, 1 walmart, 1 kmart, 1 gamestop, 1 best buy, 1 target, 1 circuit city, and 1 toys r us (keep in mind, i wasnt traveling all over...these were all within 2 minutes of each other) and not one store had any available.....who knows once shipping starts tomorrow (cuz of the legal holiday today) if any stores will get huge shippments....i doubt it, but who knows

when the become readily available, ill get one....

[Darth Sensei]

I wonder how many ebay profiteers are going to take it in the a$$ on left over units.

[captain nintendo]

I wonder how many ebay profiteers are going to take it in the a$$ on left over units.


:evil: Hopefully anybody who bought up alot from a place and left the legit gamers still wanting one will get fucked.


I am still waiting for my pre order from GameStop. No big deal, as I have figured that this just gives me more time to play my back load of games that I have yet to even touch or open.

[rbudrick]

The N64 shortage was staged? @_@

Kidding.

You know what? A shortage of a game system is ALWAYS staged. Reduced supply creates demand, and guarantees sale of all stock, especially on shipments immediately after the "shortage" is over. It's simple economics meant to maximize MS's revenue, which is much needed if they plan on taking out Sony in sales.

Anybody who honestly believes MS wasn't capable of fulfilling the consumer demand for these is is kidding themselves. It's not like they didn't have time, and it's not like they didn't know this kind of thing could (and likely would)happen.

Considering this type of thing happens with every other system launch (or Apple product), it should be said that people who believe shortages from companies this size are real are just slurping up the propaganda.

I know, the argument will go back and forth forever, but I've just seen this too many times.

-Rob

[tholly]

in any event....if anyone is a manager or employee of a store near zip code 18222 and knows when a shipment is coming in, let me know....its no rush when i get it, but i do kinda want to get one soon, now that I have the money for it.....

[PDorr3]

eBay sellers are having one hell of a time selling all the units they bought now, most will probably end up going for retail price sooner or later. I'm happy with owning mine (I was one of the best buy campers on the 18th, waited 18 hours) and Im glad I have one to play for my xmas vacation, keeping me busy.

[zmweasel]

You know what? A shortage of a game system is ALWAYS staged. Reduced supply creates demand, and guarantees sale of all stock, especially on shipments immediately after the "shortage" is over. It's simple economics meant to maximize MS's revenue, which is much needed if they plan on taking out Sony in sales.

Here are two mid-December "Everyday Economist" columns at the Slate website that explain why the North American 360 shortage didn't, and doesn't, make any economic sense: Part 1 (http://www.slate.com/id/2132071/) and Part 2 (http://www.slate.com/id/2132988/).

-- Z.

[Lothars]

I think it was partly staged

but it's just one of those things,

I agree with Rob as they could have filled demand for the system but of course to keep what's left of the hype for the system they want to keep it up.

it's all good though.

[EricRyan34]

The N64 shortage was staged? @_@

Kidding.

You know what? A shortage of a game system is ALWAYS staged. Reduced supply creates demand, and guarantees sale of all stock, especially on shipments immediately after the "shortage" is over. It's simple economics meant to maximize MS's revenue, which is much needed if they plan on taking out Sony in sales.

Anybody who honestly believes MS wasn't capable of fulfilling the consumer demand for these is is kidding themselves. It's not like they didn't have time, and it's not like they didn't know this kind of thing could (and likely would)happen.

Considering this type of thing happens with every other system launch (or Apple product), it should be said that people who believe shortages from companies this size are real are just slurping up the propaganda.

I know, the argument will go back and forth forever, but I've just seen this too many times.

-Rob



I agree with this completely, nice job

[Anthony1]

You know what? A shortage of a game system is ALWAYS staged. Reduced supply creates demand, and guarantees sale of all stock, especially on shipments immediately after the "shortage" is over. It's simple economics meant to maximize MS's revenue, which is much needed if they plan on taking out Sony in sales.

Anybody who honestly believes MS wasn't capable of fulfilling the consumer demand for these is is kidding themselves. It's not like they didn't have time, and it's not like they didn't know this kind of thing could (and likely would)happen.

Considering this type of thing happens with every other system launch (or Apple product), it should be said that people who believe shortages from companies this size are real are just slurping up the propaganda.


-Rob



I understand the point you are making, but in this case, I think that you are incorrect. The XBOX 360 (and the PS3) are different beasts altogether. They way the system is designed with multi-cores and all that, the chip yield just isn't going to be as good as it was with systems of the recent past. These aren't just video game consoles, these are like super duper set top boxes that also play video games.

Staging a shortage during a launch is normally a very prudent business decision, because it's very difficult to buy the kind of hype and press and buzz that is created when that happens. So, there certainly is no question that companies want to have that buzz going. But at a certain point, you want to have the machines on store shelves so that you can get your installed base as high as possible.

Believe me, if Microsoft could have flooded the retail channel with 360 systems a few days prior to Xmas, (like Nintendo did with the N64) they would have. They could have sold double the number of 360's they did end up selling. The reason that the retail channel wasn't flooded with 360's, and still isn't flooded with 360's, is the fact that the chip yields just aren't what they used to be.


If every console launch has a staged shortage, then why didn't the Xbox 1 or GameCube have a staged shortage? Why didn't the PSP have a staged shortage? Why didn't the Dreamcast have a staged shortage?


The only thing that I will give you, is the fact that Microsoft probably knew that the chip yield wouldn't be as good with this multi-cored system, and they probably knew that the worldwide launch strategy would leave them shorthanded, but still, it's not really a "true" staged shortage. They don't have warehouses full of 360's being deliberately held back. Again, if it really was a "true" staged shortage, then the retail channel would have been flooded with 360's a few days prior to Xmas. That's how the game is played. Look at the PS2. Everybody thought the PS2 was a staged shortage, but Sony was actually hurt by the fact that they didn't have product to sell. If you are going to stage a shortage, then it's going to be done to create hype and buzz and to get tons of free press, etc, etc, but in the end you are going to flood the market with the product a few days prior to Xmas so that anybody that wants to buy one right before Xmas can.


The only consoles that I can remember that had serious shortages, staged or otherwise is the N64, PS2 and XBOX 360. That's it. All the other systems I can think of, had plenty of systems on store shelves, if somebody really wanted one.

[Slate]

The only reason that there is a 360 "Shortage" is because microsoft is doing a test run with it.

[hezeuschrist]

The only reason that there is a 360 "Shortage" is because microsoft is doing a test run with it.

Oh, please do tell.

[rbudrick]

If every console launch has a staged shortage, then why didn't the Xbox 1 or GameCube have a staged shortage? Why didn't the PSP have a staged shortage? Why didn't the Dreamcast have a staged shortage?

Well, Xbox 1 and GC weren't the first consoles to market for their generation; it is -usually- the first new system in any given generation seems to have these kinds of "shortges" due to peoples' rabid want of new gen technology that the manufacturers play on. As for the DC, people were very wary of Sega at the time and didn't rush out to the stores...they had a "wait and see" attitude. The PSP? Well, many people did report shortages, but many also reported no problems at all...but the main reason people didn't flock out for this is that most people had a very hard time justifying such a huge cost for a portable, which has a lot to do still with why the DS is outselling it...not the whole reason, but a major one.

-Rob