Who will win the console war of 06?

[Lozza]

This could be an interesting discussion.

[Johnny_Rock]

I think no matter wether you buy a ps3 or a 360 you're still going to want the revolution.

[Darren870]

Im going with 360 on this one. With XBOX live and how intense it is and the whole system is just amazing in my opinion.

It just seems like the ps3 is going to cost WAY to much and hard to program for. The revolution will have to work hard to get fans back.

Who knows though, the PS3 and the Rev might not even come out this year making the XBOX 360 the winner of 06. ;)

[Lozza]

Im going with 360 on this one. With XBOX live and how intense it is and the whole system is just amazing in my opinion.

It just seems like the ps3 is going to cost WAY to much and hard to program for. The revolution will have to work hard to get fans back.

Who knows though, the PS3 and the Rev might not even come out this year making the XBOX 360 the winner of 06. ;)

Good point, but XBOX has had a head start since it came out in 05. I just wonder if M$ is sensationalizing the 360 by creating shortages. I wanted a 360 but after all the bad news I want to first try the Revolution. I think Nintendo will go far this time though... Looking at the system and some of the ideas it appears strong, so I voted for Revolution.

[ClubNinja]

I think no matter wether you buy a ps3 or a 360 you're still going to want the revolution.

Interesting comment. I chose the 360 and have no interest in the PS3 - yet, I'm still looking forward to the Revolution.

I also think the 360 will do very well in this generation. It seems to turn the whole console gaming/online play thing into a more intense, singular experience. I dig it, and I still only play Marble Blast.

[chrisbid]

in 2006?

im willing to bet the PS2 will still be number 1 in sales

[Ed Oscuro]

Pleasant surprise, nobody's gone off on a fanboy rant...that's good!

It seems to me all the different players have a relatively well-thought out position, but the big surprise might be that the PS3 won't be incredibly advanced compared to the 360 (but that's still a rumor). Disc drive space worries aside, the 360 has good developer support and the hardware isn't too bad.

Judging from the developer/consumer poll we saw last month, the PS3's developer support might be higher yet.

I don't know - I have been putting off getting a PS2 so I could buy a PS3 and instantly get backwards compatibility, but the cost could be too high.

The 360 also has a number of games coming for it that I am quite interested in: Lost Planet, Resident Evil 5, and Tecmo's Ninja Gaiden 2 seem a sure lock for the console.

That's where the Revolution comes in - while I'm wondering where to put my limited dollars, the Revolution moves in swiftly at a lower price point to take my dollars and my heart. I already know Sudo 51 (Fifty-one 51) and Grasshopper Manufacture are working on a game for the system, which could be a big selling point for me.

What does the PS3 have? A maybe-better (and maybe not) version of Resident Evil 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4. So essentially, from my perspective, one game.

I am very pleased that all three consoles will have backwards compatibility; though that seems a bigger point for the 360 and the PS3 than the Rev, as far as I'm concerned.

[Lothars]

I am looking forward to the PS3 which with the xbox 360 at the moment there's no games that interest me and it looks like with just morrowind coming there still won't be any games coming out that I want to get a 360 for.

with that said Im not sure of what games are coming out for the ps3 other than MGS4 but as it stands right now I want to get that and eventually get a Xbox 360

I will get a revolution and that is a guarentee, no matter if I get a ps3 or 360, I will still get a revolution.

[anagrama]

I reckon that Sega Beena is going to wipe the floor with everyone :D

[Captain Wrong]

I think no matter wether you buy a ps3 or a 360 you're still going to want the revolution.

Why?


And, for the record, I agree with chrisbid. It's still going to be PS2 at #1.

[atari_overlord]

I went ahead and chose the playstation. I only did this because I am assuming that that you meant overall sales for the systems lifespan. Playstation has way too much name behind them to lose. WHith that being said.....

Being someone who has purchased all of the systems as they have come out. This war is kind of my stopping point. I have never been so excited for a system as I am for the revolution. I truly believe that Nintendos plan to change the way we play games worked out real well with the DS. I dont play my GBAs anymore and I sold my PSP to buy more DS games. No touch screen just seems strange to me now. I am hoping the revolution does the same thing.

But regardless of who "wins" I hope they all do well because that is what gets us the best games to play at the best price.

[njiska]

Based on what we've both been hearing and seeing about the PS3 i'd say it won't make it out in the US until the very end of the year, if at all. Because of this i think the 360 will be the Next gen winner by default. Nintendo just doesn't have the brand power to win yet.

[Slave to the Parasites]

They play 3d games. They all be losers then.

[PapaStu]

Why don't we ask this question once things are a little more solid and we know when the 'competition' is actually coming out and we see some actual game footage from them.

Until then I couldn't say one way or the other what would happen because there are just too many variables.

[davepesc]

I'm really not drooling to get any of them.

I still have zero interest in playing console games online, and that seems to be the main selling point of the 360. That, and the lack of games that interest me, made it easy for me to skip the Xbox and 360 seems headed for a similar fate.

PS3, I could end up with this. I doubt it will debut at too outrageous a price, probably not more than 360. I enjoy my PS2 and so long as they continue to put out the RPGs I like (Nippon Ichi, FF, Xeno, etc) I'll sign up.

Rev: I'm intrigued. I hope this is the "revolution" video games seem to need, but I don't care what the controller does, I'm pretty tired of the same old franchises.

As for who will win in '06, I guess the 360 wins by default.

[roushimsx]

We'll let's see...

...Xbox 360 is actually out and has games coming out for it ranging from crap to awesome but is too damned expensive. It came out at the right time, has a stupidly large fanboy base, and has EA publishing games for it right now. It sells out almsot as quickly as it's put on the shelf and people don't seem to mind that 360 games are $10 more expensive than "normal" games.

...PS3 doesn't exist yet and doesn't have a release date. Estimates point to it being too damned expensive. We'll be lucky to see it this year.

...Revolution looks like 10 pounds of gimmicks packed into a 5 pound bag and is going to be a hell of a lot more affordable. Despite being horribly gimmicky, Nintendo showed that they can make gimmicks work (more or less) with the Dual Screen, but only time will tell if people will be drawn towards the gimmicks rather than the technobabble graphics hype of the competitors.

So yea...until more information on the other two comes out (...and the systems come out), it looks like the Xbox360 won't have any competition.

But I'm really looking forward to both the PS3 and Revolution. Can't wait to see what the companies do with their respective systems (especially if the PS3 really does offer backwards compatibility on par with the PS2->PS1 and enhances the games like the Xbox360).

[hezeuschrist]

Based on all logic and common sense: The Xbox 360. Everything about it just screams a well executed completely fleshed out experience.

Based on what I actually believe will happen: The PS3. They have the completely fake hype of it being more powerful than the 360, and people are already eating it up by the truckloads. The masses don't dig that deep into facts, just a couple of surface reports of the PS3 being 8x as powerful as the 360 means it'll have better graphics which means better games which means better purchase.

I don't even put the Revolution into the race. They're aiming for two of the three markets, the Hardcore and the Non-gamers. The casual gamers (Madden and GTA every year) are by far the largest market and by far the main target of Sony and MS, and if Nintendo can drag a few along for the ride, great.

[Joker T]

360

Revolution will sell worse than Gamecube and PS3 will be in second because of it's price.

[cyberfluxor]

I think the Revolution will be the best because Nintendo generally comes out with some inventive tools of gameplay.

PS3 will come in second with the massive amounts of games I'm sure will come out for it, plus the hardware and older games selection.

Last, Xbox360. It was the first to launch and will struggle later on unless they can build a better library and come out with good add-ons.

[diskoboy]

GIZMONDO is gonna whoop everyones asses!! 2006 - the world will fear the name "gizmondo".

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Seriously, I'd say the 360's outlook is lookin pretty good. Revolution is becoming less likely a buy, the more I hear about it. I still like the controller idea, but games will be a deciding factor, and Nintendo has alot of work to do to win an old, jaded fan back. Finally, Sony.... If they can keep it below $500, and have 3 killer apps on launch day? Maybe I think about one. But thats not very likely.

[PDorr3]

Too.Early.To.Tell.

[petewhitley]

I think the Revolution will be the best because Nintendo generally comes out with some inventive tools of gameplay.

But I believe the question refers to who will sell more systems, not who will be the "best". The only way the Revolution sells more systems than the PS3 in 2006 is if the PS3 launches in 2007. The only way the Revolution sells more systems than the 360 in 2006 is if hell freezes over.


What does the PS3 have? A maybe-better (and maybe not) version of Resident Evil 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4. So essentially, from my perspective, one game.

It's too early to really comment on the PS3 launch lineup. They've hinted at a few titles, but for all we know they could launch with a slew of A-list titles (doubtful, but possible). But really, the selling point of the PS3 boils down to one word: PlayStation.


I think no matter wether you buy a ps3 or a 360 you're still going to want the revolution.

Uhh, no.

[whoisKeel]

Just out of curiosity, how is the 360 selling in Japan? The XBOX has always seemed more geared towards American gamers to me, but I don't have one so maybe I am under a false impression.

I think it would take a miracle for Nintendo to end up on top this generation. If they rethink their audience they might stand a chance. I mean the Gamecube doesn't even have GTA. Sex and violence sells. They'll need a good strategy to attract some third party exclusives as well. Capcom was the only developer I saw really give the Gamecube a chance.

I'm voting PS3, considering they currently have the Japanese and American audiences nailed down. Plus they're the RPG system of choice.

Then again, we'll see. I know I'm not paying $400 for a system for quite awhile.

[DarkStraw]

I think the rev will win over japan really easy, and i think it will eventually win over america in the long run.

here's my reasons
1.its cheapest console
2.its not kiddie looking like the gamecube or n64
3.it will be easy to pick up and play

whichever console gets the casual gamers pretty much wins, i think nintendo will get the casual gamers easy this time around. i think the ps3 might sell alittle at the start, but its gonna eventually gonna put sony in the hole big time, sony is taking a huge risk with the ps3.

[Mr Mort]

I think it's a bit too early to be asking/answering this question right now, but;


in 2006?

im willing to bet the PS2 will still be number 1 in sales

Sadly, I'm also guessing this will be the reality for a few reasons:

-At this point it looks VERY doubtful that the PS3 will actually launch in 06, especially in North America.
-While the 360 does have a nice head start, there doesn't seem to be any must-have titles due for '06 (except maybe Gears of War?)
-The Revolution is going to have an uphill battle out of the gate, trying to win over the masses and shedding the GameCube's image. It may do quite well, but I have a feeling it's going to be a slow start (if it too, makes an '06 launch, that is)
-The PS2 is considerably cheaper than a 360, the games are cheaper (non 1st-party 360 games are $60.00 USD), and sadly, the perpetual Sony hype-machine, may convince the masses to hold off and wait for the PS3.

I'm more curious to ask/answer this question shortly after the PS3 and Rev have already launched. I may be going into fanboy mode here, but I'm not liking the fact that Sony is hyping up the PS3 so much, with nothing to literally show for it. No playable demos, no in-game footage, no finalized prototype (that we know of), no announcements, nothing. The same can be said of Nintendo and the Rev, as well, but at least Nintendo has been modest enough to stress that the Rev will not be about raw performance/specs, but more about HOW the games are played on it.

Eh, just my 2.

[Retsudo]

I didnt vote, but I think the Xbox is going to win this round. I think the PS3 is going to cost too much.

[evil_genius]

Depends by what you mean by the word win. If win means which I think will win in my book, or what will sell the most, be successfull etc.

[Anthony1]

If the rumors are to be believed then it will cost Sony $800 to manufacture a PS3, and that is without the hard drive. With a hard drive, $900. Now, if you actually believe that to be true, then there is definitely going to be some problems.



I'm absolutely convinced that Sony will not sell the PS3 in the United States for more than $499.99. I'm guessing no hard drive will be included, as a cost cutting measure. I'm also begining to wonder if Blue Ray can really be included. There is no way in hell that Sony can afford to take a $300 loss per console. That is double the loss that Microsoft is taking on the 360. You just can't lose $300 off every console sold, that is simply not possible.


So I think right now, it boils down to this. The only way to launch the PS3 in the United States in the year of 2006 for $499.99 is to remove the blue ray drive. However, I just don't see Sony doing that. Therefore, I believe that the PS3 will receive a pretty significant delay here in the U.S. No PS3 in 2006. That means that the Xbox 360 will have had two Christmas seasons all to itself. (Revolution doesn't count in my book). Even the high and mighty Sony won't be able to make up that kind of ground.



As for the Revolution, I think this console will find a particular audience, and it will be a profitable venture for Nintendo, but it will in no way, shape or form compete with Sony and Microsoft for overall dominance.

[googlefest1]

i still think its too early to say

with the shortages of the 360 i dont think MS currently has too much of a head start

i think that the 360 and ps3 will have many cross platform games making them kind of equal in that respect - the diference being that i belive the ps3 will have more suport from japanese game makers

i think the revolution would have more revolution only titles

i picked MS at this point because of the rumors about the PS3 price - also because i think MS could still make somthing happen in the time they have from now untill the ps3 launch -- also i have my own misgivings about the ps3 launch when considering an older rumor about sony fireing the harware engineers and starting from scratch.

i think the diference between the ps3 and the 360 will be minimal allowing for a ton of cross platform games (with the same atributes) i think the major diference between the games for the ps3 and 360 will be the the RPGs which suposedly is still a niche market in the US (if this were true why the F do they hold thier value for so long.. but anyways)

i think nintendo will have to do something about thier reputation - but i belive they still have a strong enough name to do better than the game cube did especialy with my expectation of REV only games AND what ever that downloadable stuff will be

i think the 3 of them will still have strong enough holds on the market to lead them into the future console war

but i think MS will take some of the market away from sony this time around (especialy if the keep playing thier cards right and use thier imediate time wisely)

[Neo Rasa]

How are we defining a "win" here? Nintendo seems to have the only model setup where they actually turn a profit. Sony has the biggest install base, only reall dropping off since the beginning of 2005.

The Sony hype machine IS incredible. There are still dozens of people that think the PS3 is going to be out in about two months as far as the general consumers go. There are also dozens of people that think the XBox 360 was completely recalled due to it having an abnormally high defective rate (when the exact opposite is true for a console launch).

As far as 2006 goes, I think Nintendo is going to take it just based on the price alone. No matter what your kid wants, if you see some game consoles that are $400+ with $60 games, then see another one that's less and has a new type of controller that no one else has on their PS2/XBox/Gamecube/360, they're going to go with the Revolution.

If the PS3 makes it out this year it will of course sell great, but as far as actually turning a profit goes, Nintendo will "win" this year.

Supposedly the Revolution is going to be out around Thanksgiving (maybe they're pushing for a week before Black Friday release like with the DS? Guaranteed BFriday and Christmas sales despite a slow trickle of games and then a barrage of quality in March 2007 and on?).

Sony is probably going to stupidly over-produce the PS3 like they did the PSP, whereas Microsoft embraced the "shortage" marketing to great effect this Christmas.

We won't really know more until E3. I mean I doubt Sony will really be able to make an online service "superior to XBox Live" but if they somehow have that to show at E3 it's a whole new ballgame.

We'll also hopefully have a release date for the Revolution for E3.

Legend of Zelda: The Twilight Princess is going to be a huge seller like every Zelda game that wasn't on the CDI. Now, correct me if I'm wrong but the MSRP for the Gamecube is no longer existant in Japan, meaning they can sell them for as little or as much as they want. Nintendo can't possibly be manufacturing that many more Gamecubes with this in mind, or for all we know they stopped production and whatever's coming into stores now is the end of it.

So forward to this fall when Zelda comes out and the general consumers all want Gamecubes again. You could get one, or you could spend $200 more and get an entirely new system that's compatible with all the GC games and the controller anyway that also has a completely new control method. Again, a lot of people will choose the Revolution.

As someone said earlier (and as googlefest1 said just now), the 360 and PS3 won't be THAT different power-wise in practice. There'll be the exclusive games that play to the systems' strengths and are mindblowing to behold, but the EA/Ubisoft/Midway stuff isn't going to be drastically different. Many people that shop at the store I work at clearly want either a PS3 or a 360 and are also interested in the Revolution. With the price Nintendo keeps talking about for it, I'm sure anyone that can actually afford a 360 or PS3 with several games won't have any problem grabbing a Revolution sooner or later as well.

[kainemaxwell]

Still may be too early to tell with only info on the Rev and PS3 out thus far.

[n8littlefield]

I think that we're going to see similar market share in the US. Sony #1, Microsoft #2, Nintendo #3. However, for profits, Nintendo will beat them both.

In Japan, I'm starting to think Nintendo is going to become the #1 console maker again. The insane DS sales, combined with the (seemingly) more open minded gamers may put them back on top.

[Sylentwulf]

I think the whole topic needs clarification. Is this US based? World based?

I can't possibly imagine the xbox 360 will be anything other than last if it's worldwide based. In japan, I could see a close competition between ps3 and revolution. In the US I could see a close competition between the ps3 and the xbox 360. Europe is always up for grabs :)

I'm still placing my money on the PS3. Unless the revolution gets some SERIOUS 3rd party support, it will never be anything more than a second console for most people. I'll personally stick with the japanese RPG system of choice, the PS3.

[Ulticron]

The majority of ppl laughed at the DS when it came out, and said that the PSP would kill it. Heck I'm a Nintendo fan and I really didn't see much of anything worthwhile on the DS at the very start. Guess what I own one and it's kickin the PSP's butt.

I have a strong feeling that the Revolution will end up in a similar way to the DS. Everyone says Nintendo is out of touch, but when you can buy a cheap console, with massive backwards compatability + the suprises down the road you're going to end up kicking some serious butt.

Microsoft will live on no matter whether they make a profit or not on the 360. The only thing that will get M$ out of the console business is sheer boredom, simply because the company will never go bankrupt no matter how many or how few consoles they sell.

As for Sony I don't even see them coming out w/the PS3 this year. The hardcore fans will buy a PS3, but who else is going to? I won't, at least not at that price tag, but when it reaches the bargin bins for about $100 I may very well snatch one up just to say I have it, if for no other reason.

Nintendo will be the true winner, they're going to suprise a lot of people.

[petewhitley]

The hardcore fans will buy a PS3, but who else is going to? ... Nintendo will be the true winner, they're going to suprise a lot of people.

See, IMO you've got it backwards. Regardless of price, the PS3 has the advantage of branding; everyone and their mom has a PS2 and it's by far the most popular console of this generation. Thus, we should expect that the successor will be a hit amongst casual gamers looking for a follow-up to their one and only console of this gen. Price will probably end up being less of a factor than most of us are predicting. Nintendo, on the other hand, is becoming more of a "hardcore" gaming company when it comes to the console race. The Revolution is an experiment, and as such we should expect it's initial penetration to be weighted heavily towards dedicated gamers and those purchasing a second console.

[neo-zen]

im thinking its going to be a tie with the 360 and the revolution.
i love my 360, and i think nintendo will do some cool things with the revo.

[Bronty-2]

The hardcore fans will buy a PS3, but who else is going to? ... Nintendo will be the true winner, they're going to suprise a lot of people.

See, IMO you've got it backwards. Regardless of price, the PS3 has the advantage of branding; everyone and their mom has a PS2 and it's by far the most popular console of this generation. Thus, we should expect that the successor will be a hit amongst casual gamers looking for a follow-up to their one and only console of this gen. Price will probably end up being less of a factor than most of us are predicting. Nintendo, on the other hand, is becoming more of a "hardcore" gaming company when it comes to the console race. The Revolution is an experiment, and as such we should expect it's initial penetration to be weighted heavily towards dedicated gamers and those purchasing a second console.

I do find it incredible that the poll results in this thread show sony as predicted to be dead last?? Crazy talk.

But it does all depend on the definition of 'win'. The average consumer would probably define it by market share but I guarantee you these companies themselves define it by overall profit. In that respect, I expect ms to end up dead last again. rev has a low production cost / low development cost model that should make them some nice money. ms and sony both have high production cost / high development cost models but you need volume to make that work, to make up for those high initial cash outlays. Which is why sony should be fine and ms should lose some more money, at this rate, as I see it.

Bottom line sony and ms are going after the top end market but sony has the advantage of the brand/market share.

Nintendo's got a nice little niche carved off for themselves with no immediate competition in their lower end price point. I look for them to improve quite a bit on their showing with the gamecube.

[EasternDynamo1]

I think it will be the 360 that carries '06. Nintendo has to prove to me that they are still a force in console gaming. They got the handheld arena covered though. If the revolution turns out to be another R.O.B. or something like that then god help them. Sony will probably finish 2nd in each market. I have a question for you all. All the talk about the Japanese market, is it equal to the US or Europe? I am just curious. Thanks for reading.

[Abman]

I think the Nintendo Revoultion because it looks so cool with it's odd controller. I can't wait to play it and see how it plays. Also you can download classic games into it which is cool even though I don't really care about this feature because I like to collect the old cartridges. Also Nintedo tried something new with the DS and it worked. DS is a very popular system now. So I can't wait for the Revoulotion to come out.

[vincewy]

PS3 should not be in the poll, it will not launch in 06 in US, maybe a limited, rushed launch in Japan only, like what MS did last year.

A more valid poll will be for end of 2007.

[Cmtz]

I think the Revolution will be the best because Nintendo generally comes out with some inventive tools of gameplay.

But I believe the question refers to who will sell more systems, not who will be the "best". The only way the Revolution sells more systems than the PS3 in 2006 is if the PS3 launches in 2007. The only way the Revolution sells more systems than the 360 in 2006 is if hell freezes over.




Uhh, no.
Should I quote you later this year, just like I quoted you here:



Nintendo is about to sell 13 million more. I'm pretty sure anyone who has one will go out and buy the new one, unless they're poor. I'll have one the first day of launch in the U.S.

You're high. 2nd system buys will be relatively insignificant, as they always are with a redesign.

What was that again?

http://ds.qj.net/uploads/articles_module/9931_hundreds-line-up-for-ds-lit.jpg

[The Manimal]

Based on what we've both been hearing and seeing about the PS3 i'd say it won't make it out in the US until the very end of the year, if at all. Because of this i think the 360 will be the Next gen winner by default. Nintendo just doesn't have the brand power to win yet.

totally agreed. the ps3 date keeps getting pushed back, and the revolution won't be out until thanksgiving.

[petewhitley]

Should I quote you later this year, just like I quoted you here:



Nintendo is about to sell 13 million more. I'm pretty sure anyone who has one will go out and buy the new one, unless they're poor. I'll have one the first day of launch in the U.S.

You're high. 2nd system buys will be relatively insignificant, as they always are with a redesign.

What was that again?

http://ds.qj.net/uploads/articles_module/9931_hundreds-line-up-for-ds-lit.jpg

I think I'm missing your point. Are you trying to say that just because Japanese people lined up around the block on opening day that 13 million DSver.1.0 owners have gone and bought 13 million DSver.2.0? Uhh, no. And tell me Merlin, how exactly do you know that all those folks lined up have DSver.1.0 and are upgrading? It's a pretty picture tho'. x_x

[Juganawt]

The current gen console war (it's not next-gen, X360 is already on the market), my heart would say X360 will win for it's amazing online service and impressive lineup of games, but realistically those wacky japanese will buy PS3 in droves, making it number 1 again, with 360 in 2nd and Rev in 3rd.

When the Rev2, X720, and PS4 are released I think it'll be a different story. I think people will be fed up with being spoonfed bullshit by Sony and disappointed at the unfulfillec promises it rams down our throat about PS3 and will wise up and avoid the system like it's made out of herpes and laced with elephant spunk, leaving M$ with the top spot, followed closely by Nintendo