PS3 could come in third in Next-gen battle?

[sabre2922]

http://next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3349&Itemid=2

a couple of quotes from the article:


It now appears clear that this new generation of console systems is going to result in a big shake-up in the game industry power structure. While it has always been clear that Sony's dominant market share was destined to decline, there now appears to be the distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii.


However, it is more than just an issue of whether the PlayStation brand strength can justify a premium price. Of course, Sony would like to point to the hardware horsepower and extra features like Blu-ray. The problem is that is only one factor in our forecasting matrix. Furthermore, with the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller, the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive "Wow Factor."

Also:

PS3 game cancelled due to high cost

http://consoles.gwn.com/news/story.php/id/9898/



In what seems like a continuing, and somewhat disturbing trend, more bad news came through today regarding a PS3 game Theseis.

According to PS3 Land, Managing Director Vicky Valanos told them the following: "If Sony were to offer us assistance in producing a PS3 version we would be more than happy to oblige!"

"We plan to develop Theseis for PC and Xbox360 in the near future. As for the PS3, we simply made a strategic decision to not move ahead because we deemed it not probable at this time."

Not probable due to what, Mr Valanos? Overwhelming development costs we assume since that is the reason they gave for the termination.

Could this be the first of many smaller third party developers to pull out of PS3 development? With the cost of developing on 360 and PC being relatively good, and Nintendo working closely with the smaller developers to release innovative new games for the Wii, Sony stands as the odd man out with their high-end PS3. This raises the question, will the PS3 only receive the big budget franchises, and games from major developers who can afford the expensive dev kits and ongoing costs? Only time will tell and we'll keep you up to date of any other small developers who pull the plug on PS3 titles because they can't afford it.


I think its time for a change anyway and would welcome the thought of the 360 or especially the Wii being the dominate console in the upcoming generation.

I just hope there wont be a crash before any of that happens :hmm:

[le geek]

I agree it doesn't look good right now. I admit that I would like to see a more even playing field as Sony is getting cocky. But I don't want to see Sony go down or anything either.

All Sony needs to do is drop the price of the console to be inline with (or close to) the 360, and lose the "You'll eat it and you'll like it bitches!" attitude of it's executive staff...

Even if the PS3 games look noticably better than X360 games, they're only selling to the early adopter "Laserdisc" crowd with the current prices...

Nevertheless, PS3 will sell out until March 2007.

Cheers,
Ben

[smork]

Eh, I ain't buying one until it drops below $250. Fact is I won't buy any console unless it drops below $250. Well, except LE consoles. Damn sure i'd shell out the change for a Divers Dreamcast!

But $600 for something that'll be $200 in 2 years? Please. I'm not in that big of a hurry, and I got tons of old games to play. If something's expensive coz it's rare, that's one thing. But not because it's bleeding edge.

Anyway, I do think Sony's going to have a little problem this gen unless a special price drop happens. Maybe it's a part of their scheme -- get people used to a $600 tag, then before launch drop it to $450 or so. "Hey, it's cheaper now! We should get it!" Just a thought.

[exit]

I'm getting closer and closer to saying fuck PS3 and just get a Wii, or goto the dark side and get a 360. Hell with the Wii being soo cheap I might just get both.

[diskoboy]

The PS3 will be Sony's equivalent of the Atari 5200.

In 2 years, Sony will already be talking PS4.. They will deny all knowledge of it's (the PS3's) existence, and blu-ray will will go the way of the Betamax. You can buy a small, but decent HDTV for as much as Sony wants for a stand-alone player. No way in hell...

Plus Sony needs to stop running their arrogant little mouths. :roll:

[digitalmouse]

Anyway, I do think Sony's going to have a little problem this gen unless a special price drop happens. Maybe it's a part of their scheme -- get people used to a $600 tag, then before launch drop it to $450 or so. "Hey, it's cheaper now! We should get it!" Just a thought.

That would be absolutely genius, sir. I'd get one if it happened. :D

The problem I see with Sony is their attitude towards gamers. Well, make that the general 'consumer.' I mean hell, whenever Kenny speaks I feel like Sony is going to make me their bitch with their new fangled technology. Sony needs to stop acting like some second coming, and start acting a little more like this man:

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/library/allard%5B1%5D.jpg

Jacket/sweatshirt and all. Seriously.

"You will buy Blu-Ray, and you will enjoy Blu-Ray!"- Does anyone else get that feeling when they have a new announcement? x_x

[keiblerfan69]

I am willing to bet they will be in 3rd. Its good to cause Sony can finally get off there high horse and start being what they once were with the PS1. Sony got cocky after the Dreamcast died. :(

[njiska]

Anyway, I do think Sony's going to have a little problem this gen unless a special price drop happens. Maybe it's a part of their scheme -- get people used to a $600 tag, then before launch drop it to $450 or so. "Hey, it's cheaper now! We should get it!" Just a thought.

That would be absolutely genius, sir. I'd get one if it happened. :D

The problem I see with Sony is their attitude towards gamers. Well, make that the general 'consumer.' I mean hell, whenever Kenny speaks I feel like Sony is going to make me their bitch with their new fangled technology. Sony needs to stop acting like some second coming, and start acting a little more like this man:

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/library/allard%5B1%5D.jpg

Jacket/sweatshirt and all. Seriously.

"You will buy Blu-Ray, and you will enjoy Blu-Ray!"- Does anyone else get that feeling when they have a new announcement? x_x

Ah yes Lex Luthor. We should all follow him.

Seriously though i've been saying it since E3 05 when MS was honest and Sony showed insane renders, "People aren't gonna take this shit any more." Sure enough here we are and the PS3 is looking less and less likeable and the 360/Wii combo is looking strong then ever.

Let's face it 3rd-party exclusives are drying up and just about everything is gonna be on both the PS3 and the 360, But the 360 is much cheaper, has the established Live Network and you're only loss is Blu-Ray which may not even win the war anyways and simple isn't worth adopting this early.

The line in the sand isdrawn and sides have been chosen.

[digitalmouse]

Holy shit, he does look like Lex.

[Anexanhume]

The 360/Wii combo looks attractive when it is the same price as one ps3.

[diskoboy]

Thank god I'm ot the only one who saw the Lex Luthor similarities! LOL LOL

I agree - for Microsoft being the "evil" company that they are, they sure do appreciate us gamers, and don't talk down to us like were all 5 year olds, or like we have all this money to burn on their products.

[Simply Dave]

The 360/Wii combo looks attractive when it is the same price as one ps3.

Everywhere I go I hear people saying this.

I think I'm leaning to that side as well. You got your 360 for the hardcore stuff, and the Wii for the wacky fun stuff.

[keiblerfan69]

Thank god I'm ot the only one who saw the Lex Luthor similarities! LOL LOL

I agree - for Microsoft being the "evil" company that they are, they sure do appreciate us gamers, and don't talk down to us like were all 5 year olds, or like we have all this money to burn on their products.

I may hate Windows but I love Microsoft and the way they handle Xbox.

[Damaramu]

The 360/Wii combo looks attractive when it is the same price as one ps3.

Everywhere I go I hear people saying this.

I think I'm leaning to that side as well. You got your 360 for the hardcore stuff, and the Wii for the wacky fun stuff.

Ditto. Microsoft and Nintendo are on the right path. This is the path I'm following. :D

[Trebuken]

Developement costs seem to be the issue for the next generation. The $600 price tag will not last more than a couple years, probably less, and SONY has a 10 year lifecycle planned for the PS3. I think we need to worry about the price of the games the most. Many peoepl will not, cannot, pay $600, but as a piece of hardware it is worth more than that. The Blu-Ray twist is just Sony getting it's format into more households, and fighting off HD-DVD, too bad it drove up the systems cost.

The initial crop of games seem less impressive than the fall line-up of the 360, graphically, but they look damn good...

Later,
Trebuken

[drewbrim]

If for no other reason other than no video game company has been on top for more than two generations in a row, I would look for Sony to be anywhere except on top this go around. The (american) public is just seems to be fickle that way.

[ROBOTNIK666]

I fully agree with everybody here. If Sony dosen't change their attitude towards the PS3, the third time will definetely not be the charm.

[Anthony1]

Wow, this is all shocking isn't it? It seems to be a consensus viewpoint that Sony really F'd things up for themselves this time. Man, it's going to be very shocking for them not to come out on top. I mean for Sony as a company. They are going to be like in a state of shock when they first realize that they have no chance at the No. 1 spot.


Still, while Sony is definitely looking at losing the clear cut No. 1 market share that they've enjoyed for 11 years straight, they aren't necessarily out of the picture. The $600 price is huge, more from a mental standpoint than anything. We all know that ultimately in the United States, it's the casuals that end up deciding who wins the console wars. Whichever system the casuals end up flocking to, is the one that get's the No. 1 share. And even though Sony will be sold out of PS3's well into Spring 97 or even Summer 97, the casuals will be in somewhat of a state of shock when they actually see the price tag of the PS3 at a Wal-Mart or in a Best Buy Sunday ad. I mean can you imagine what Joe Casual gameplayer will think when he first sees and ad for the Playsation 3, and sees the price of $599.99? He's going to immediately think, damn, they must be crazy to sell a game machine for that much. Then in the same ad, he's going to see the 360 price of $349.99 for the premium and the Nintendo Wii at $229.99. Then what is he going to think?


Because even though Sony is only going to have systems for the early adopters and hardcore crowd, what the casuals think about the PS3 is going to matter. What they perceive is going to matter. Even though there isn't going to be one available to sell to them, there initial "take" with the PS3 and it's pricepoint is going to matter, mentally. Subliminally. That is why they are dead in the water. Plus just think about 10 million 360's installed worldwide before the single PS3? That is a huge factor. I know it's a played out factor, but it's a real factor, and that's why Microsoft loves to talk about it, because it really is a feather in their cap. If you are the average 3rd party developer, where are you going to be focusing? The 360 with like 15 million worldwide owners (by late January 1997) or the PS3 with maybe 3 million (if they're lucky to be able to produce that many). It's simple math. The 3rd parties will flock to the 360 in droves. Some of the bigger 3rd parties will still supply Sony with certain games, but ultimately they will defect as well. Just like when Square left Nintendo for the PS1. It seemed unthinkable, and then it happened, because of the market forces. Same thing will happen here.

[Princess-Isabela]

whats with this stuff?:

"Sony will be sold out of PS3's well into Spring 97 or even Summer 97"

we're not in the 21st century yet, eh? ^_~

[zerohero]

I don't think anyone I've talked to personally is even thinking about buying a PS3 a launch, let alone a year later. It's sad, but Sony thought they could do know wrong, and threw out the high price tag. Now this gen they will pay for it. ANd honestly, I dont see it selling out even to the hardcore gamers at launch.

[njiska]

Thank god I'm ot the only one who saw the Lex Luthor similarities! LOL LOL

I agree - for Microsoft being the "evil" company that they are

Again Xbox was headed by Lex Luthor, you don't get more evil then that.


I don't think anyone I've talked to personally is even thinking about buying a PS3 a launch, let alone a year later. It's sad, but Sony thought they could do know wrong, and threw out the high price tag. Now this gen they will pay for it. ANd honestly, I dont see it selling out even to the hardcore gamers at launch.

While the part of me that hate's Sony want's to agree with you, the rational side of me is saying, "It's only about 1,000,000 units for the whole world, it's not possible for it not to sell out."

I think they have the launch in the bag, but after that, it could be not better then the 360 in Japan.

[diskoboy]

Thank god I'm ot the only one who saw the Lex Luthor similarities! LOL LOL

I agree - for Microsoft being the "evil" company that they are, they sure do appreciate us gamers, and don't talk down to us like were all 5 year olds, or like we have all this money to burn on their products.

I may hate Windows but I love Microsoft and the way they handle Xbox.

Yes. They've impressed me quite a good deal since 2001. And I even went so far as to saying the Xbox wouldn't last 3 years.... I applaud Microsoft for their work on building a solid fanbase - not to mention 2 solid platforms.

They've won this die-hard Sega fanboy over. Let's hope they don't get too cocky, as well...

[Anthony1]

ANd honestly, I dont see it selling out even to the hardcore gamers at launch.



Oh, it will sell out easily. In all territories. Sony will be lucky to have 3 million available for the launch and into early January, and that has to be divided up into all the territories that they are launching into. Sony could sell 3 million in the U.S. alone if they had them to sell. Don't underestimate the ability of U.S. consumers to reach deep into their pockets. Especially video gamers that also happen to be early adopters. And that is just the video gamers. Sony could sell 500,000 PS3's just to people who want them for the fact that it will be the cheapest Blu Ray player that they can buy. So you have both video game early adopters, as well as Home Theater early adopters, which means every single PS3 will be snatched up the second it arrives in a store. The problem for Sony, is that they are likely to suffer the same poor chip yield that Microsoft did with the 360. It was the lackluster chip yield that caused the 360 shortages, and I'm guessing it's going to happen to Sony too, and probably even worse considering the design of the Cell and GPU. So, I honestly don't even think they will have the 3 million units that they think they are going to have. Probably 2.5 million, and you have to divide that between the 3 major markets. Japan will get the most, then U.S., then Europe. I'm guessing Europe will hardly get any. Or the European launch could be postponed to 2007.


Really, if Sony was really smart, they would only launch in Japan and the U.S., and actually give the U.S. 60 percent of the available supply, because it's the U.S. market that is most in danger for them. They need more units in the U.S. than anything.

[zerohero]

Yea, I keep hearing the prospect that since they have a shortage all units will sell, and yea it makes sense. But what exactly accounts for a sell just to make sure. Your not talking about retailers buying the systems then trying to sell it, your talking the actual sell of the US share of PS3's to consumers at launch will totaly sell out correct? If so I'm still "iffy" on the subject because the PS3 has more of a negative response than the Xbox 360 did at launch. But the thing that will save them like you said is the Home Theater hardcore market for the Blue Ray.

[Sothy]

imagine in the 90's a Turbografx being released that has Betamax built into it..... going against sega and nintendo at 2X the price...... thats exactly whats happeneing now and they have about the same chance of winning.

[smork]

imagine in the 90's a Turbografx being released that has Betamax built into it..... going against sega and nintendo at 2X the price...... thats exactly whats happeneing now and they have about the same chance of winning.

That ain't too far off, really. Who knows what direction the High def DVD market will take, if at all? I don't think people buy expensive new technologies unless there is a clear edge.

One of the things that made the PS2 attractive to me as a gamer is the availability of any type of game. It wasn't any technical superiority (I like both the GC and XBOX more for looks in games, and I think the DC looks better, most of the time), it was a reasonable price and large developer support. A $600 console isn't reasonable, and dev houses won't support it so much if they think people won't buy so many expensive consoles. High price creates a HUGE ripple effect.

Look at me, I was a big PS2 supporter and now i'm ripping on it. The fact that nobody seems to be supporting the PS3 (in fandom) is what makes me think they have a huge, huge problem.

[C White]

imagine in the 90's a Turbografx being released that has Betamax built into it..... going against sega and nintendo at 2X the price...... thats exactly whats happeneing now and they have about the same chance of winning.

Actually, replace Betamax with CD Player and we wouldn't be too far off from what did happen.

[Anthony1]

imagine in the 90's a Turbografx being released that has Betamax built into it..... going against sega and nintendo at 2X the price...... thats exactly whats happeneing now and they have about the same chance of winning.



That isn't a good comparison at all, because Sony has dominated the market for 11 years running, and NEC wasn't in that kind of situation when they launched the TG-16. So it just isn't a very valid type of comparison. Now, lets pretend that when Nintendo launched the N64, let's pretend that it was priced at $599.99 because it had a DVD drive way before anybody would really care or even know about a DVD drive. That would be a much better comparison, because Nintendo had dominated for about 10 years at that point (although the last 3 or so years they shared the market with Sega), and they would be coming to market dramatically overpriced compared to the Playstation and Saturn. The reason why they would be overpriced is because of the brand new media that is actually way before it's time (similar to Blu-Ray, lol).

[Trebuken]

Here's a tidbit...

"It's just one man's opinion, but Jason Anderson, research director at International Development Group (IDG), told an audience at the recent MI6 Game Marketing Conference that Microsoft's Xbox 360 will retain its lead in the U.S. next-generation console war until 2009. IDG predicts Microsoft will sell 15.5 million 360 units to Sony's 13.5 million (Nintendo's Wii is predicted to sell 6.8 million units) in the United States."

http://www.twitchguru.com/2006/07/05/monday_morning_rundown/page3.html

These console numbers seem low compared to current gen but is they prove accurate I'd guess the real battle will be on the software side of things. I thing Nintendo will do better than this though...many people debate PS3 vs. 360 but alsmost all seem to want a Wii...

Later,
Trebuken

[diskoboy]

I forgot where I saw the quote, but someone compared what Sony is doing to Coca-Cola - and I thought the quote was a great comparison.

Generally, the jist of it was "It's almost like Coke getting out of the low brow soda industry and moving up to fine wines - totally abandioning it's customer base they've had for generations. Almost the same scenario as when they unveiled new coke."

The point is - they're not aiming for the casual, blue collar gamer, anymore. They're trying to be the "Dom Perignon" of video games. The hardware is not too much better than the 360's.. They're just trying to shove another medium (blu-ray) down our throat.

I don't buy Sony products. I don't buy Sony consoles. Their arrogance will be their downfall.

[mailman187666]

I agree that Sony is being pretty arrogant about thier new system with the new technology. But being a hardcore game fan and being the type that gets antsy when new systems are about to come out, I can honestly say that I am interested in buying a PS3 on launch day. Final Fantasy XIII will be amazing among other games. Ps3 may cost $600 on launch day, but i know I'm going to like the games and i know I'm going to like what it has to offer. not to mention the PSP connectivity its going to have, it opens up a whole new world of innovation. I am going to buy PS3 on launch day. If it flops and i'm out the 600, I'll say oh well because that money will make itself back by going to work and selling dupes of my classic games on ebay. 600 may be a lot of money to everybody, but if you have a job, that 600 will eventually be back in your bank account. Just make sure the bills are paid up before you decide to buy one LOL

[zerohero]

Just a question, How much money do people who are actually getting a PS3 have saved up?

[mailman187666]

I can have enough saved up within' two weeks and thats after all my bills are payed, car is full of gas, and food is in the fridge.

[EasternDynamo1]

I think Sony is going to be dissapointed. THe economy is strting to slow down and people will not want to shell out the big bucks, factor in the higher cost of games and I think it will probably be each player getting about a third of the business when all the launches have happened. Micosoft might wind up with a 38~40% due to the early lead though.

[Frica89]

hahaha funny shit. Right now, Sony seems like some evil company. Everytime I hear them come out saying some crap like that, I wanna kick them in the balls :angry:. Microsoft seems like it has good intentions, but it still young in comparison to the other 2 companies. I like what they seem to be doing though. Then you have Nintendo, who seems like the hero, trying the best they can to better the gaming industry. I hope Wii fares better than the Gamecube (sometimes i think im one of like five people in my city that actually owns Nintendo's lil box). I never hated Sony before, just disliked them (I also own a PS2) but they are really starting to piss me off. I havent felt this way about a company since I hated Sega back in in the good ol' SNES vs. Genesis days LOL. (I look back and like sega now. so all you sega fans chill out for a sec.) As a gamer, it definitely sounds better to me to own a Wii AND a 360 than a PS3. $600? go fuck yourself Sony. Im looking for a system that is in the $250 and under price range. You shouldnt have added all that unneccassary tech shit to your console. I just want to play some goddamn fun video games and not have to sell my blood to pay for them. Whatever. We'll see what happens :/

[Icarus Moonsight]

Here's a tidbit...

"It's just one man's opinion, but Jason Anderson, research director at International Development Group (IDG), told an audience at the recent MI6 Game Marketing Conference that Microsoft's Xbox 360 will retain its lead in the U.S. next-generation console war until 2009. IDG predicts Microsoft will sell 15.5 million 360 units to Sony's 13.5 million (Nintendo's Wii is predicted to sell 6.8 million units) in the United States."

http://www.twitchguru.com/2006/07/05/monday_morning_rundown/page3.html

These console numbers seem low compared to current gen but is they prove accurate I'd guess the real battle will be on the software side of things. I thing Nintendo will do better than this though...many people debate PS3 vs. 360 but alsmost all seem to want a Wii...

Later,
Trebuken

These pundits/analysts are going by historical data and most likely only that of the last 10 years. For Nintendo's side that means they are looking at the N64 and Gamecube sales data. I'd be more likely to say that you could double their Wii units and two-thirds or half the PS3 units just from what I have heard through conversation. Not to mention those killer lines at Nintendo's booth at E3.

In short I concur, the Wii is getting underestimated while the PS3 is being over, due to Sony's dominance in the last 10+ years of console gaming. I'm sure the projections for the N64 were higher than the reality for the same reasons.

[smokehouse]

I don’t think Sony is evil….just arrogant. If you’re going to talk the talk, you have to walk the walk (worn out saying but it gets the job done). For 2 years I’ve heard things like:

-The PS3 will reinvent gaming
-The PS3 is going to dominate the gaming market
-The PS3 will be the most powerful gaming system on the market
-The PS3 is far better than the 360

Funny enough, other than a few lame tech demos…Sony has yet to produce shit. No one has seen a full on, REAL console with real full games and could sit down and have time to play them. Short, shitty tech demos and single level demo games at E3 don’t cut it when you’ve ran your mouth like Sony has.

MS puts their money where their mouth is (and this is comming from the mouth of a MS hater). When the 360 came out last year they had real games running on real hardware. They had the real deal on hand and came out with their console on time. Sure, there were shortages like there always is but now that’s not a problem anymore. Sony at this point is still vaporware. I have an EGM from summer 2000 that shows a full on review of the PS2. They had one IN HAND. If the PS3 is supposed to come out in November, where are the reviews, pictures from real hardware and launch titles with screenshots?

This time around they are full of shit. That’s my problem with Sony.

[rxd]

The thing I don't get is this. What's the big deal about the PS3 being sooo much more powerful than the 360? It will hardly matter at all because all the 3rd party games are always targeted to the least common denominator as far as machines go. That's why all the games that are on both PS2 and Xbox look virtually the same. They were designed to run on both systems so that the more powerful system (Xbox) wasn't used to it's full capacity. The same thing will happen again this time only the roles will be reversed. That's assuming, and right now that's a pretty big assumption, that the PS3 will be all that Sony claims it will be....

[jdc]

Man.....have you seen a 360 running on a really good tv? If the Sony is better than THAT, then I don't know what to think, with the 360 being absolutely breathtaking. AND they are assuming that everyone will hook the console up to an uber tv set. Do you know how many casual Sony PS2 owners are still using an RF switch? It would probably scare you.

Like was said before, the hardcores will buy it and eat Kraft Dinner and Ichi Ban noodles for a while and the casuals will have a coronary and wait for the super low "Walmart crowd" price drop that will be a long time coming. I don't think that backwards compatibility feature will weigh out over the price tag this time.

What amazes me is that the sentiments expressed in this forum are the same all over the web. It seems to be the common concensus with the majority of people.

[Goldensunfan1]

Man sony definenly needs to wake up and smell the coffee or they will be over taken by the 360 and the wii -_- . Because nobody will want to spend $600 on the system and like another $60-200 on Accessories and games. Sony will fall just like nintendo did when they released the N64. Big third party companies left nintendo because it became to expensive to make games on Cartridges. Also it was outdated hardware. Sony will make sure that all games be made with blu-ray and the third party companies will leave sony and go to Microsoft and back to Nintendo. Because it will be expensive to make a game for it.

[njiska]

Man sony definenly needs to wake up and smell the coffee or they will be over taken by the 360 and the wii -_- . Because nobody will want to spend $600 on the system and like another $60-200 on Accessories and games. Sony will fall just like nintendo did when they released the N64. Big third party companies left nintendo because it became to expensive to make games on Cartridges. Also it was outdated hardware. Sony will make sure that all games be made with blu-ray and the third party companies will leave sony and go to Microsoft and back to Nintendo. Because it will be expensive to make a game for it.

Actually there's a catch to the whole Blu-Ray thing.

Recently the BDA has approved a format known as BD-9. BD-9 is a 9 GB Red laser disc, so basically a DVD, the only catch is that it's player spec sheet requires h.264 and VC 1 support.

So basically with this spec most PS3 games can come on BD-9, which is in essence a DVD and is made on a DVD manufacturing process, so devs don't have to pay for the extra manufacturing cost, but can still charge as if they were.

Blu-Ray isn't nessicary for next gen games unless you're filling up on CG.