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View Full Version : The slow and quiet desensetizing move into the download era



gepeto
10-15-2006, 09:12 PM
Just looking for your thoughts
has anyone noticed the slow subtle move toward the digital download era.

ex: xbox360. I have been noticing that the file (MB) size of the demo downloads for the xbox 360 games are pushing 1 plus gig.

I also have been noticing that all games that I have downloaded have run with no problems and 1 plus gig downloads finish in a reasonable amount of time. I also notice that the 20 gig hard drive is not enough. With the rapidly expanding hard drive size are we being desensitized and brainwashed through demo downloads for the next gen era?

They already got me thinking hey should I cancel my xbox mag subscription next year. I feel like I'm wasting money because the downloads will be on live anyway.

I have always been afraid of getting burned. EX: company goes out of business I want to play my game

Can the Big 3 get together and collectively l force download only games on there next gen consoles?

Sort of like a secret pact understood buy all. It's been done before.


I personally prefer and always will getting a cd or game something tangible. I would seriously be ill if I were forced to pay full price for downloads. I am starting to feel like my way of thinking is stuck in the age of the dinosaur.

I am also starting to feel that in this age of ondemand the I don't care how I get it as long as I get it crowd is going to be the inevitable winner.

Does anyone know the percentage of 360 owners that are actually active online with live. Can that scope of users support the system long enough to force the others to get high speed in order to play a console system? (hypo)

Imagine Halo 4 release on Oct 15 12 midnight. Downloads start at 12. I would be bicthing all while still downloading.

Its funny as much as I swear I am against it . With xbox live I have been riding the pay train:)

Future AD:

xbox 720 Future of gaming broadband internet connection required.

crazyjackcsa
10-15-2006, 11:20 PM
Won't happen for a long time, not until almost 100% of the market has highspeed internet access, until then the discussion is totally without merit. No manufacturer would limit themselves like that, and think about it, the larger the games get the higher the highspeed needs to be, and the larger the storage device needs to be. The most recent I could find is this: 24% of rural people have highspeed 39% of suburban/urban dwellers. This was in 2005. How much could it be now? 50% total? And this is only of internet users. A full 38% of rural dwellers don't even have internet and a full 30% of urban don't have internet. That's too much of the market to do away with physical games. BTW here's my source: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Rural_Broadband.pdf This discussion always reminds me of the idea that email would do away with paper in the office place and that ebooks would spell the end of the traditional novel. Personally I don't believe that we'll see the end of the traditional "game store" for quite some time. I do think that it will become a very viable and widly used option, but not the standard for a very long time.

Anthony1
10-16-2006, 12:39 AM
I think it depends on your view of "a very long time". Even Sony's Phil Harrison was talking about how the Playstation 4 might not have any form of media whatsoever. So this is definitely on the minds of Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo long term, as well as all the publishers out there, especially the big boys. The increase in profits from going direct to consumers with no middle man, no packaging, etc, etc, it's just too unstopable a force to be contained. It's like it's a slow moving train that is gaining speed ever so patiently, but eventually this train is going to be moving at top speed and simply won't be able to be stopped. There is nothing we can do about it. It is the future, and we can't run away from it.


I guarantee that the CEO's of places like GameStop/EB and GameCrazy and other retailers now that they have a "finite" amount of time left. The question is how long? Crazyjackcsa's post above definitely brings up some good points about how such a very large portion of the population still doesn't even have internet, much less high speed, that it makes you wonder how close this really could be. But then you have a guy like Phil Harrison talking about how the PS4 won't have any physical media. Sony has talked about the PS3 having a 10 year life span, if you believe that, then the PS4 would hit the scenes in about 10 years. Will 10 years be enough time? Does GameStop/EB and GameCrazy only have 10 more "real" years left?


Personally, I think we are still about 15 years out. But the fact of the matter is, it's coming, and there is no stopping it. And it's going to happen whether the entire world has high speed internet or not. It's like the whole digital TV mandate. There is going to be alot of grandma's and other people out there with old school black and white TV's that are going to turn on their TV one day and just get static, because the analog channles will be turned off. Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo aren't going to wait for everybody. They are going to wait till 80 or 90 percent of their buying demographic has high speed, and that isn't that far away. Certainly, if the PS4 doesn't have any media, and you need to download the games via High Speed, nobody without high speed is going to buy it. So those people that are interested in it, that don't have high speed at that point, they are basically going to come to the realization that they need to finally jump on the bandwagon. I can also see stores like Best Buy and Circuit City having special download stations for the straglers to use.


It's coming people. Whether we like it or not, it's coming. :(

Emuaust
10-16-2006, 01:40 AM
anthony you have not really sat down and thought that if
they said it has a 10 year life cycle then we wont see the PS4
for another 10 years?

what he means is there is a 10 year life cycle same as ps2 although
you will see a new console wthin its life cycle.

Secondly the issue here is the there is also more to the world
then just the US, conutries like the UK and Australia have a
far far poorer uptake of the internet, let alone high speed internet.They also lack the network
capacity to greatly improve this in any type of console life cycle.

Unless a new form of internet connection that is available to a
majority of people regardless of geographical location, then digital distribution will be an market that is exclusive to a
more of what is called a nessecity market, eg. Online gamers,
Probably why products like EA downloader and Steam get more
popular, there users are going to have the capacity to cope with
the demands of this type, eg.storage space and Quality connection,
for the simple reason that they more then likely need these
to actually use the products properly to begin with.


Storage Mediums whether they be discs or something new
will be with us for quite some time IMO.

Anthony1
10-16-2006, 02:04 AM
anthony you have not really sat down and thought that if
they said it has a 10 year life cycle then we wont see the PS4
for another 10 years?

what he means is there is a 10 year life cycle same as ps2 although
you will see a new console wthin its life cycle.

Secondly the issue here is the there is also more to the world
then just the US, conutries like the UK and Australia have a
far far poorer uptake of the internet, let alone high speed internet.They also lack the network
capacity to greatly improve this in any type of console life cycle.

Unless a new form of internet connection that is available to a
majority of people regardless of geographical location, then digital distribution will be an market that is exclusive to a
more of what is called a nessecity market, eg. Online gamers,
Probably why products like EA downloader and Steam get more
popular, there users are going to have the capacity to cope with
the demands of this type, eg.storage space and Quality connection,
for the simple reason that they more then likely need these
to actually use the products properly to begin with.


Storage Mediums whether they be discs or something new
will be with us for quite some time IMO.



Blah, Blah, Blah.... IT'S COMING DUDE, I TELL YA, IT"S COMING!!!! Run for the hills!!!! LOL

Emuaust
10-16-2006, 02:20 AM
anthony you have not really sat down and thought that if
they said it has a 10 year life cycle then we wont see the PS4
for another 10 years?

what he means is there is a 10 year life cycle same as ps2 although
you will see a new console wthin its life cycle.

Secondly the issue here is the there is also more to the world
then just the US, conutries like the UK and Australia have a
far far poorer uptake of the internet, let alone high speed internet.They also lack the network
capacity to greatly improve this in any type of console life cycle.

Unless a new form of internet connection that is available to a
majority of people regardless of geographical location, then digital distribution will be an market that is exclusive to a
more of what is called a nessecity market, eg. Online gamers,
Probably why products like EA downloader and Steam get more
popular, there users are going to have the capacity to cope with
the demands of this type, eg.storage space and Quality connection,
for the simple reason that they more then likely need these
to actually use the products properly to begin with.


Storage Mediums whether they be discs or something new
will be with us for quite some time IMO.



Blah, Blah, Blah.... IT'S COMING DUDE, I TELL YA, IT"S COMING!!!! Run for the hills!!!! LOL

Blah, Blah, Blah?
I thought that is what most of the posters here thought of your posts LOL LOL

Sothy
10-16-2006, 05:16 AM
PWNED!

Balloon Fight
10-16-2006, 05:27 AM
PWNED!

Quoted for emphasis!

playgeneration
10-16-2006, 07:44 AM
Setting up distribution so that millions of people could download games gigs in size will could cost games companies even more than simply distributing it on a cheap disk. I dont know why publishers are complaining about game shops taking away their profits so much, since many have done just fine selling that way for 20 years or more!
They claim development costs are increasing, but since games are more popular than ever, shouldnt they be selling more copies to make up for that extra cost?
If they want to cut costs on distribution, how about putting more effort into selling the actual disks from online shops. Online shops usually have lower prices than highstreet shops, but you can bet with digital distributionb there will be no savings for customers

slip81
10-16-2006, 07:48 AM
I doubt we'll see anything like this for a looooooong time.

Not untill you can fit 500TB on to a single drive and 100% of the population is equipped with 50MB/sec internet connections.

heybtbm
10-16-2006, 08:17 AM
I've said it here before...

Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc. run the show. They tell Sony, MS, and Nintendo what they will sell and how they will sell it. When large retailers can figure out how to make a profit selling downloadable games. it will happen.

There will never be time in our lifetimes when games are downloadable only. There are large parts of our country that lack the infrastructure for high speed internet. There will always be a large percentage of people who won't be able to download games and therefore you will always see physical media. Downloadable games, movies, music will grow in popularity, but it will never totally replace physical media. Unless of course there is some new technology that can replace the traditional "wire dependent" nature of cable and dsl.

Kejoriv
10-16-2006, 09:10 AM
maybe the companies will give the option.
Example:
If you download the game its $8 cheaper than if you buy it.

gepeto
10-16-2006, 09:12 AM
I doubt we'll see anything like this for a looooooong time.

Not untill you can fit 500TB on to a single drive and 100% of the population is equipped with 50MB/sec internet connections.

I use to think the same way but know I just don't know.
The jump in hard drive space from 200 gig to 500 gigs was blazing. Way faster than the jump from 4 gigs to 20.

As far as not being able to handle the load. With all xbox live has to handle my download time have been reasonable.

When the ps2 came out sony claimed the life span at 10 years. So I find it hard to believe any claims of 10 years in the hardware era.

The ones that (like me ) claim to fight the fight against it might just be an acceptable loss to the manufacturer.

The rural areas is a good point. Maybe buy disc and require activation like windows. When half life 2 came out I thought there would be problems with the whole steam activation. that has held up well.

I don't know technology is moving forward superfast and I feel we are being fattened for the slaughter. If people were forced to buy new all the time I wonder what the difference would be in terms of profit vs loss of hardcore (disc only customer). I know I wouldn't buy as nearly as much. I just think that it is a lot closer than we think.

KingCobra
10-16-2006, 09:53 AM
It'll be coming sooner than most think, look at the music world? Pretty tuff to make a buck at the retail end there now.

I don't see an end to the gaming disc media, but I can see a base game on it, and to get the rest or the full version, you'll be downloading it, kinda like the PC world.

:/

Icarus Moonsight
10-16-2006, 10:23 AM
You're all wrong! HA! It's going down bad, real bad. You see they are doing it as we speak and are going to do it more in the future. They're gonna sell you the software contained on (X) storage media. Then you'll have to subscribe and/or pay for all types of downloadable crap so they get you in a double whammy. All that's left for them to do is let the cash pour.

Paul Revere should have asked, "What if the British come by land AND by sea? How many freaking lights should we signal then!? I wish that Einstein would hurry up and immigrate so we can just nuke these limey SoB's! I don't even like horses for God's sake! Oh hell, forget this. Screw you guys... I'm going home." LOL

Raccoon Lad
10-16-2006, 08:07 PM
Downloadable games are a godsend for small game developers, as they can develop original games without need for a publisher.
It's a far better prospect for burnt out developers than making another crappy game based on the next upcoming "kid friendly" movie or TV show.
(crosses fingers)

Anthony1
10-16-2006, 10:04 PM
This crap is coming much sooner than alot of you guys think. Everybody keeps mentioning about people in rural areas, and the rest of the world. The bottom line is, the people that have money to buy $49.99 and $59.99 games are the ones with high speed. If 90 percent of your market has what is needed to be able to direct download, who gives a rats ass about the 10 percent that don't? Tough cookies. The big boys aren't going to wait for the last 10 or 20 percent. If 80 percent of their buying audience has what is needed, they will move forward.


Having said that, it will still be another 10 years before 80 percent of their buying audience has what's needed, but 10 years can either be seen as a very long time, or a very short time. To me, at 36 years old, 10 years can fly by pretty fast. So to me, it's coming much faster than I would like. Personally, I can't stand the idea of owning something "virtually". I have yet to purchase one single thing off of Xbox Live Marketplace, because when I buy something I want to have the ability to sell it to somebody else when I'm done with it. I want to be able to sell it on my own terms. I was very tempted to buy Doom for Xbox Live Arcade, but I just couldn't get around the idea of owning something "virtually". Not having a hard copy. It just doesn't sit well with me. I don't know what it is. It's like a mental block or something, I just can't come to grips with it. Unfortunately, it's not going to matter in another 10 years. I'm going to have to deal with it whether I like it or not.

crazyjackcsa
10-16-2006, 11:29 PM
[quote="Anthony1"]This crap is coming much sooner than alot of you guys think. Everybody keeps mentioning about people in rural areas, and the rest of the world. The bottom line is, the people that have money to buy $49.99 and $59.99 games are the ones with high speed. If 90 percent of your market has what is needed to be able to direct download, who gives a rats ass about the 10 percent that don't? Tough cookies. The big boys aren't going to wait for the last 10 or 20 percent. If 80 percent of their buying audience has what is needed, they will move forward. quote]

You have a VERY narrow veiw of the term Rural, and to think that availability of Highspeed somwhow equates to disposable income is VERY shortsighted. the ability to buy a game has nothing to do with whether you have higspeed or not.

You've been drinking again haven't you?

crazyjackcsa
10-16-2006, 11:31 PM
Look at that! You made me so angry I forgot how to spell! Oh how I miss the edit feature. If you need me, I'll be living in filth out in the sticks where I don't have highspeed, and that must mean I don't play games.

Emuaust
10-17-2006, 05:57 AM
Anthony that would have to be the most ignorant statement
you have made on this site and no I am not a Anthony Hater.

The point of the matter is that countries outside of yours do actually
buy games, they also buy cars and tv's and other such luxuries
that you may enjoy.

Just because they have a decent income(I wont brag but I earn
very good money)does this mean I automaticlly have access
to Highspeed net?, pff what tripe.

The fastest that my city will be able to recieve in house for at least
three years will be a DSL connection 1500kb download/256 upload
While that may seem resonable the fact is this is capped at around
50gig for approx $75AUD a month, pretty steep for what we get.

Why is it so expensive? simple the amount of money companies need
to spend to be able to upgrade there networks is rather
large
and the problem is this all needs to be fixed in the major countries
like a lot of europe as well as the UK and many asian countries
Well and truely before this is viable as an idustry standard.

Yes the storage space is almost apon us, that I wont argue with
you about but the actual OTHER, REAL WORLD elements will
put this on the backburner for longer then you may think,
it really in theory may be usable in 7 to 8 years time in the USA,
outside that is another story.

Sothy
10-17-2006, 06:06 AM
I use to think the same way but know I just don't know.
The jump in hard drive space from 200 gig to 500 gigs was blazing. Way faster than the jump from 4 gigs to 20.


wait they have 500 gb hardrives now...wait THEY HAVE 200 GB Harddrives now?


Christ I need a new pc.....

heybtbm
10-17-2006, 01:17 PM
Everybody keeps mentioning about people in rural areas, and the rest of the world. The bottom line is, the people that have money to buy $49.99 and $59.99 games are the ones with high speed.

Totally out of touch with reality. I know many people who make more money than I do who choose to live in "rural" areas. They can't get cable internet and live too far away from from a hub to get dsl. For them it's dial-up or nothing.

Iron Draggon
10-28-2006, 02:48 AM
I've said it here before...

Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc. run the show. They tell Sony, MS, and Nintendo what they will sell and how they will sell it. When large retailers can figure out how to make a profit selling downloadable games. it will happen.

There will never be time in our lifetimes when games are downloadable only. There are large parts of our country that lack the infrastructure for high speed internet. There will always be a large percentage of people who won't be able to download games and therefore you will always see physical media. Downloadable games, movies, music will grow in popularity, but it will never totally replace physical media. Unless of course there is some new technology that can replace the traditional "wire dependent" nature of cable and dsl.

Gee, so all the "downloadable only" PC games that I have installed on my computer right now aren't really there, or this isn't actually happening in my lifetime... so am I dead? have I become a ghost? or am I just imagining my games?

bangtango
10-29-2006, 11:05 PM
I have no problems with the cost of high-speed internet access, so I could adapt to having to download my games. However, I'll choose not to.

I was one of the schmucks still buying cd's while half the nation was downloading music from Napster scot-free a few years ago.

I will steadfastly refuse to jump on that bandwagon. If it is not a cartridge, card, a standalone unit or some other sort of media, then my money will be staying right where it is. They can kiss my ass. I'm not going to be forced to pay for games I can't hold in my hand or keep on a shelf. I'm not coughing up dough to download "old" games that I already have in physical form or could pick up easy enough. Same goes for new games.

What if Anthony1 is right and everything ends up becoming download only? The way I see it, there are plenty of systems (and games) that I missed the first time around. I'll go back and play something from a previous generation that I never tried before.

YoshiM
10-29-2006, 11:16 PM
I've said it here before...

Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc. run the show. They tell Sony, MS, and Nintendo what they will sell and how they will sell it. When large retailers can figure out how to make a profit selling downloadable games. it will happen.

There will never be time in our lifetimes when games are downloadable only. There are large parts of our country that lack the infrastructure for high speed internet. There will always be a large percentage of people who won't be able to download games and therefore you will always see physical media. Downloadable games, movies, music will grow in popularity, but it will never totally replace physical media. Unless of course there is some new technology that can replace the traditional "wire dependent" nature of cable and dsl.

Gee, so all the "downloadable only" PC games that I have installed on my computer right now aren't really there, or this isn't actually happening in my lifetime... so am I dead? have I become a ghost? or am I just imagining my games?

I have to agree with I.D.-there are downloadable only games available now and if I'm not mistaken has been since the first modem chirped online.

However, in heybtbm defence, they are right that the retail stores DO have some control on the titles they sell. They do get to choose what goes on the shelf (of course, going to those who put up enough money/give enough discounts) and they also have a say on how much downloadable media costs.

Recently, if I'm not mistaken, Wal-Mart had a big stink over downloadable movies. Basically you could buy a complete movie (legally) for something like $12.99 and just download it. Wal-Mart got into a tizzy because they claimed such sales could harm the sale of the same movie on DVD, which (for example) would sell for $14.99. They basically threatened to pull that studio's DVDs off of their store shelves. Someone correct me if I heard that wrong.

There's going to be more pay downloads. It's inevitable. I see the negatives (no physical media and the uncertainty of being able to play the game if the company required internet access to play and they go out of business) but also the positives: convenience. True it would take hours to download but then I'm not driving around all of creation trying to find a store that has the title I'm looking for. I just had this issue myself trying to find Elder Scrolls: Oblivion for PC-one store in my home city of 50K had it and I got the last copy. With online purchasing one could select the download and leave the PC on when they go to work or school or even when they go to bed. By morning/end of school or work the game is ready to play.

Iron Draggon
10-30-2006, 12:14 AM
it doesn't even take that long to download a game through a broadband connection, if you can get a decent transfer rate... you can be ready to install it in about as much time as it takes to install it... maybe a little longer, but it can be worth the wait for the convenience... I'm having the same problem finding copies of the latest PC games in brick and mortar stores more and more all the time, and having to order them online to decrease my wait time for them more and more all the time too... even with shipping times of a week or more, I often can get a copy of the game in my hands faster by ordering it online than by waiting for it to appear on the shelves of a brick and mortar store near me... so if I could download it instantly and still get a hard physical copy of it somehow, then why would I want to wait? it's not having a hard physical copy as well that's the hardest thing to deal with about downloadable games...

one thing to remember about the console gaming industry is that it has always been led by the PC gaming industry... sometimes it's the other way around, but in general, any new trends and technologies that occur for the PC today will end up becoming the standard for consoles tomorrow... and who ever thought that consoles would ship with hard drives? now it's becoming the norm... the same thing will happen with digital distribution for PC and consoles alike... the signs that it's coming are everywhere around us right now... it's just a matter of seeing them or staying in denial and being one of the last to jump on the bandwagon...

personally, I'm both excited and upset about it at the same time... I'm not looking forward to having nothing tangible to collect for gaming anymore... no manuals unless I print my own, and not even a disk unless I burn my own... if I'm allowed to do that when digital distribution becomes the norm... I think it will have to be an option for it to gain wide acceptance... but I can see it turning out just as nice as what we buy in brick and mortar stores today... with a good enough printer, you can print a decent manual and even bind it, with the right tools... the right paper used for the cover can even print a decent looking manual cover... and newer disc burners can even burn a very professional looking design right onto the surface of the disc, as it's burning data onto the other side... so if developers would embrace such technologies and support them with official label designs that we could burn onto our discs when we burn our hard copies, I'd have little to complain about...

yes it's a bit more expensive and inconvenient for me to have to do most of the publisher's current job duties for them... but look what I could get in return... no more trips to every store in town trying to find a new release on the day of its release... digital distribution would eliminate that problem and also promote a more diverse market of titles to choose from... lower production and distribution costs would encourage more developers and publishers alike to take risks on unproven concepts just to guage public interest in them... indie developers could make a name for themselves and get their work noticed far more easily than they used to be able to... some have already done it now...

so its a system of many potential rewards... and it's still in its infancy right now... but by the time full transition has occurred, most of us will be wishing that it had happened alot sooner... and hopefully all the old classics will find new life through digital distribution as well... MAME and other emulators are already a form of digital distribution, in a sense... and look at how many of us here and elsewhere on the net are into such things, hoarding ROMS on disks like there's no tomorrow... but if the industry is smart, they'll recognize the full potential for profit that this method of distribution presents, and the original artists behind all the old classics as well as newer artists alike could receive the compensation they deserve for their work when we want to buy a copy of it for ourselves... now who here wouldn't be willing to pay a small fee to be able to download any classic game from the entire history of gaming... knowing that the original creator of the work would still get to profit from it?

Hypnotuba
10-30-2006, 12:51 AM
I was one of the schmucks still buying cd's while half the nation was downloading music from Napster scot-free a few years ago.


Right on! I'm the same way.

I suppose if digital distribution is the only thing kids know, they'll be used to it. I, on the other hand, need to have the physical object to feel that I have something of value. I need the cover art, and the manual (even if I never open it), and a case so I can put it on a shelf. :)

Where will we store these large downloaded console games? Even if consoles have a giant hard drive, we'll eventually run out of space. I don't like having to rely on some remote server that will eventually be shut down, and then there goes my game!

I wonder if one good thing might be that games that only receive limited print runs might be available for a long time as a download, because they don't have to worry about physical distribution.

Anyway, without some easy way of permanently backing up/storing my downloaded games, I would never get into it.