Sony may not make ps3 shipment target due to Blue Ray drive

[7th lutz]

http://www.gameinformer.com/NR/exeres/36B95248-E4BF-4CDB-9F5B-7ECC50391A38.htm

Acording to this article: Sony said that it's possible the company might not make the shipping targets the company had previously laid out due to Blu-ray drive shortages. Gameinformer got this info from a Bloomberg report.

The latest projection was Sony's latest projections set the number of consoles shipped by the end of the year at 2 million for North America and Japan, and 6 million by March 2007.

The odd thing is the day before gameinformer posted this, Gamespot did an interview with SCEA prez Kaz Hirai and Kaz claimed they are no problems producing blu-ray drives.

Either bloomberg has a inaccurate report or Kaz is denying this. At this point I think Bloomberg has their report correct and sony is denying this to the press with sony's history to the press with statements like there is nothing wrong with button on the psp. This statement occured last year and told 3rd parties to deal with it.

[Neo Rasa]

This isn't really news. Sony announced several weeks ago (almost a month ago actually) that there'll only be 400,000 units coming to the US in the initial shipment, they claimed they'd have a total of two million by the end of the year but we know that isn't even remotely feasible given manufacturing costs and that there are only 200,000 units coming out in Japan at launch.

[Hwj_Chim]

Such is launch. It seems Like sony is trying to fail. Heres hoping that costs and prices come down soon. :/

[joshnickerson]

http://www.vgcats.com/comics/images/061012.jpg

[Anthony1]

If you really believe their 2 million before January 1st number, then this is big news, but people shouldn't really believe that. My guess is that they will ship about 1.5 million worldwide before Jan 1st, 2007.


USA = 1,020,405 units
Canada = 78,199 units
Mexico = 0 units
Japan = 401,396 units


Of course, my 1.5 million, and the above predictions are just pure speculation on my part, but I woud be somewhat suprised if those numbers are dramatically different. It's going to be pretty much identical to the whole Xbox 360 thing last year, except all the consoles that Europe got are going to Japan.

[jajaja]

I wonder why its so hard to get blue lazer heads, anyone know?

[Anthony1]

I wonder why its so hard to get blue lazer heads, anyone know?


It as something to do with the blue "diodes", whatever the hell those are, and the strange thing is, that the PS3's blue diodes are different from the standalone Blu Ray player's blue diodes. This is why standalone Blu Ray players aren't going to be delayed along with the PS3. If I had to guess about it, I'm guessing that when they manufacture them, there is a high failure rate, in terms of getting blue diodes that work properly. Maybe when the manufacture 10 of them, only 1 of the 10 works. To be honest, I really haven't the slightest idea, but that would be my guess. Of course, if you want to go with the Conspiracy crowd, then you will buy into the theory that the whole Blue Diode thing is completely fake, and that Sony prefers to have severe shortages to create the hysteria and amazing demand. The fact is, that these systems are extremely expensive in comparison with normal console prices, and if there was zero hype and hysteria, would they sell out of them instantly like they are going to now? Also, when a system has this much scarcity for it's holiday season, that scarcity can pay dividends later on down the line, when the system is in better supply, cause the hype is still there, and then the company can sell a boat load of them until people realize that the scarcity is over, and then the hype kinda dies down a bit.


Personally, I don't subscibe to the conspiracy theory, at least, I don't this time. Normally, I'm a big believer in these self created scarcity situations, like the whole N64 launch thing. When the N64 launched it was very hard to find, it turned into a cabbage patch or Elmo situation and then magically a few days prior to Xmas there was an absolute flood of N64's into the market. So this strategy has definitely been used before. Last year, with the Xbox 360, I almost thought that Microsoft was going to be doing a similar thing, but the fact that they didn't fully stock retailers until mid April suggests that their issues were actually legit, because it actually cost them sales in that situation.

[Trebuken]

Sony also announced that their profits would be substantially below predictions. Seeing that they lose $300 on every PS3 I would not be surprised if they are intentionally limiting the number of units until the end of the 4th quarter. They certainly have everything budgetted and forecasted for the remainder of the year...the number of units they release likely match some sales vs loss ratio and the blue diode issue is likely a half-truth; consumers will feel better about a hardware shortage than their profit margins.

Later,
Trebuken

[jajaja]

Hm.. that theory IS plausable, but i dont belive it myself. Now that 360 is comming out with alot of great titles, Wii is comming it would be logical for Sony to push out as many PS3 consoles they can. Too bad its delayed until spring 2007 for Europe. I really hope it wont be the same situation as it is now. However, it will probly be like $800 at launch like the PS2 was so i have to wait months for price drop anyway :\

[jajaja]

That reply was to Anthony's post. Trebuken's theory also makes sense, if its cheaper to produce it later that is. I have no idea how it works.

[Trebuken]

Read this on Gamespot the other day. Helped me form my opinion...

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6160116.html?part=rss&tag=gs_news&subj=6160116

or
" Today, Sony Corporation revised its earnings forecast for the 2006 financial year ending March 31, 2007. In a statement released in Japan, the consumer electronics giant said it now expects a group net profit of 80 billion yen ($674 million) for the full fiscal year. That figure is 38 percent below the 130 billion yen ($1.1 billion) net profit it had forecast in July.

Sony also lowered its operating profit forecast just over 62 percent to 50 billion yen ($423 million) for the year. Left unchanged for the fiscal year is sales predications, which remain at 8.23 trillion yen ($69 billion).

For the quarter ending September, 30, 2006, profits at the company were off a dramatic 93 percent due to two big factors. Foremost was the recall of 9.6 million faulty lithium-ion laptop batteries, which will cost the company approximately 51 billion yen ($429 million). It also called out higher-than-expected PS3 hardware manufacturing costs and cooling PSP and PS2 sales as major contributors.

Looking ahead, Sony said its recently announced a price cut of the 20GB PS3 in Japan--where it will now cost just 49, 980 yen (approximately $423)--will slow revenues. "A decrease in sales and an increase in operating loss are expected within the game segment as a result of the reduction of the retail price of the PS3 hardware in Japan and the fact that sales and profitability from the PSP business are expected to be lower than originally forecast," the company said in a statement.

Sony added that although the PS3 would be sold at a loss during the initial launch phase, it is "looking forward to the successful worldwide deployment and expansion of the platform" in the long term. "


The fiscal year for Sony ends March 31st 2007, which is about the time of the European Launch. Also they have annouced upto 6 million units by March, meaning by the end of their fiscal year, hence it's been budgeted. Of course if enough games are sold and they start making their money back they can pick up the pace...

Business is business. I work for a large retailer and have begun seeing similarities in the way they operate (Walmartitized business economic model).

Later,
Trebuken

[kainemaxwell]

I'm not surprised anymore by this. I'm sure Sony's kicking themselves now for even wanting to include Blu-ray.

[Lothars]

I'm not surprised anymore by this. I'm sure Sony's kicking themselves now for even wanting to include Blu-ray.

I agree, I mean I think Blu-ray is a great thing for the PS3 but it's almost a shame that they just not include it than include it later

but than again I would rather have it with the Blu-ray Player in it than not

[Anthony1]

Seeing that they lose $300 on every PS3 I would not be surprised if they are intentionally limiting the number of units until the end of the 4th quarter.


Interesting idea, but if that was the case, they would probably be more concerned with their fiscal year (March 31st 2007) than just the 4th quarter. I honestly think their scarcity is 100 percent legit this time. They are going to be so far behind the other two, that any side benefit they have from the scarcity standpoint is overshadowed by the fact that their installed base is going to pale in comparison.

[Trebuken]

Seeing that they lose $300 on every PS3 I would not be surprised if they are intentionally limiting the number of units until the end of the 4th quarter.


Interesting idea, but if that was the case, they would probably be more concerned with their fiscal year (March 31st 2007) than just the 4th quarter. I honestly think their scarcity is 100 percent legit this time. They are going to be so far behind the other two, that any side benefit they have from the scarcity standpoint is overshadowed by the fact that their installed base is going to pale in comparison.

It's just a theory. It seemd HD-DVD (including the 360's add-on), will also be affected, and of course all Blu-Ray drives. Only suspicious because Sony isone of the few sources of Blue Diodes...

Blue diode production is supposed to be OK next year (at the beginning of the new fiscal year for everyon) why? The demand is not going to decrease...we'll see, just suspicious; seems Microsoft is going to have the edge a bit longer with the Red Laser...

Later,
Trebuken