New-gen Consoles coming up on their half-life?

[dlopez9069]

I did a little bit of research(not much though) and came to the conclusion that in only three years the systems we are all playing now are probably going to be last gen. heres my little bit of research so you can see what I mean:

Atari 2600 1977 8
NES 1985 Years

NES 1985 6
SNES 1991 Years

SNES 1991 5
N64 1996 Years

N64 1996 5
GC 2001 Years

GC 2001 5
Wii 2006 Years

Wii 2006 5
??? 2011 Years


I used Nintendo because they have been front runners in the console wars for the longest time. I know it really doesn't mean much but what I was thinking is if they are not releasing mostly good quality games now how will the next 3 years look. Oh and this is also in response to the people on numerous threads who say its too early to talk about next gen because I'm pretty sure Nintendo, Sony, & Microsoft are.


Just sharing my thoughts and ramblings.

[Dangerboy]

It's been pretty common knowledge that a game system's average "mainstream" life is 5 years, with fringe years being anywhere from 1 to 4 years (or 5, if you're the original Playtation).

5 years seems to be the definining "attention span" before the "I need something NEW" thought starts screaming into your head. Heck, I had a customer not a week ago tell me they were just going to skip PS3 and wait for PS4.

This 5 year plan would also help hardware developers plan ahead when they need to have the deck and specs ready by. Nintendo themselves admitted the Wii's insane popularity, which hasn't faded at all, has screwed up their planning of the next system since they haven't met the current demand.

What will be interesting to see is if Sony keeps their "10 Year" promise with the PS3. I could easily see Microsoft moving on, but it's Nintendo that has me curious as to their plan of action.

[KanYozakura]

I think that both Nintendo and Microsoft are going to stick to the 5 year plan.

Microsoft will dump the 360 just like it dumped the original Xbox, making the PS3 look outdated and forcing everyone to upgrade again. Hell, they already moved a game ahead to the next system, so it can't be that far off. Also, I think they'd rather just release a new console and drop the 360 than fix the 360 RRoD altogether.

Nintedo's had huge success with the Wii, and I think they'll capitalize on that by coming out with a better motion-control system coupled with cutting edge graphics to bury the other two. I view the Wii as a litmus test more than anything.

And yes, Sony will ride both the PS2 and the PS3 into the dirt before even thinking about PS4.

[DefaultGen]

.....

[mercarian]

Honestly, I think that the life span of systems will become shorter as technology advances. Hell, 10 years ago you had to wait a long time before a movie would come on on vhs, now there out on dvd within weeks. I don't think the Ps3 made a hugh impact on the market, like it was intended to do. Hopefully, the 5 year plan will stick out, (gives good systems/games/etc) but I highly doubt it. Really good thread 0_o

[DJ Daishi]

ahh, this topics is making me feel old...

[dlopez9069]

Personally I think sony is going to take it hard because they were/are planning to ride on the success of the ps2 & 3 for awhile, but ps3 really isnt selling as well as they expected.

Nintendo was kinda going out on a limb with the motion controls and now they don't really know how to build on that without basically making a wii clone.

Microsoft seems to have it right. The only thing that I think will hurt the market is that if the next gen just isnt stunning enough for the future gamers to put down the old systems. highly doubted though.