How Much Longer Will Physical Game Distribution Survive? [Slashdot]

[DP ServBot]

GamesIndustry is running an interview with Theodore Bergquist, CEO of GamersGate, in which he forecasts the death of physical game distribution in favor of digital methods, perhaps in only a few years. He says, "Look at the music industry, look at 2006 when iTunes went from not being in the top six of sellers — in the same year in December it was top three, and the following year number one. I think digital distribution is absolutely the biggest threat [traditional retailers] can ever have." Rock, Paper, Shotgun spoke with Capcom's Christian Svensson, who insists that developing digital distribution is one of their top priorities, saying Capcom will already "probably do as much digital selling as retail in the current climate." How many of the games you acquire come on physical media these days? At what point will the ease of immediate downloads outweigh a manual and a box to stick on your shelf (if it doesn't already)?
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[heybtbm]

20+ years. Seriously, the people who disagree must live in a bubble. Most people I know have no access to anything resembling high speed internet. How the hell are they supposed to download games? Answer: THEY CAN'T.

Downloadable distribution as the ONLY method is still several console generations away. I have no doubt we'll start to have the option (download vs. physical game) by next generation. When we finally have nationwide, free, wi-fi, high speed internet then we'll talk about 100% digital distribution.

And as I always mention when these topics come up...Walmart/Target/Gamestop/Best Buy, etc. will never let this happen. Simple as that. They want to make $$$ like everyone else. These "middlemen" won't let go of retail game sales without a fight. It will take years.

[demen999]

I don't think it will go away anytime soon. Unless they start including downloading while on standby, which I doubt. Also people like to usually have the real thing. This isn't mp3's folks.

[Oobgarm]

20+ years. Seriously, the people who disagree must live in a bubble. Most people I know have no access to anything resembling high speed internet. How the hell are they supposed to download games? Answer: THEY CAN'T.

Downloadable distribution as the ONLY method is still several console generations away. I have no doubt we'll start to have the option (download vs. physical game) by next generation. When we finally have nationwide, free, wi-fi, high speed internet then we'll talk about 100% digital distribution.

And as I always mention when these topics come up...Walmart/Target/Gamestop/Best Buy, etc. will never let this happen. Simple as that. They want to make $$$ like everyone else. These "middlemen" won't let go of retail game sales without a fight. It will take years.

And thus, this thread is complete.

[kaedesdisciple]

When we finally have nationwide, free, wi-fi, high speed internet then we'll talk about 100% digital distribution.

It'll never happen. There's too much money in Internet service provisioning to have free high speed Internet access for all. If anything, ISP's are gearing up to charge us more to download more. Content companies will move to 100% digital distribution, right alongside ISP's introducing a sliding scale for download bandwidth(that scale is already being tested in limited markets, just look at some of the major providers). Everyone on the supply chain's gotta make money, after all.

[heybtbm]

It'll never happen. There's too much money in Internet service provisioning to have free high speed Internet access for all. If anything, ISP's are gearing up to charge us more to download more. Content companies will move to 100% digital distribution, right alongside ISP's introducing a sliding scale for download bandwidth(that scale is already being tested in limited markets, just look at some of the major providers). Everyone on the supply chain's gotta make money, after all.

I disagree. I think "the internet" as we know it will become something similar to radio or TV signals. It'll be available everywhere and free. TV/internet/movies/music/gaming distribution will become one. You "pay" for it by buying various content. Other content (like TV shows) will be free and paid for by advertising $$$.

My city (Madison,WI) is already in the midst of "broadcasting" free wi-fi. It's just a matter of years before the entire world is covered.

[TonyTheTiger]

I never understand why these conversations always cause people to take an all or nothing stance on the subject. This doesn't have to be a zero sum game where while digital distribution grows retail distribution has to shrink. Everybody has a telephone these days but that doesn't mean the mailman is out of a job.

[s1lence]

Sorry, but people, EVEN those that download lots of items. They still like to have a physical copy of something. I guess maybe there are people that enjoy "owning" something that has no physical being.

[MrSparkle]

I never understand why these conversations always cause people to take an all or nothing stance on the subject. This doesn't have to be a zero sum game where while digital distribution grows retail distribution has to shrink. Everybody has a telephone these days but that doesn't mean the mailman is out of a job.

no but it means the payphone providers are

[TheDomesticInstitution]

20+ years. Seriously, the people who disagree must live in a bubble. Most people I know have no access to anything resembling high speed internet. How the hell are they supposed to download games? Answer: THEY CAN'T.

Downloadable distribution as the ONLY method is still several console generations away. I have no doubt we'll start to have the option (download vs. physical game) by next generation. When we finally have nationwide, free, wi-fi, high speed internet then we'll talk about 100% digital distribution.

And as I always mention when these topics come up...Walmart/Target/Gamestop/Best Buy, etc. will never let this happen. Simple as that. They want to make $$$ like everyone else. These "middlemen" won't let go of retail game sales without a fight. It will take years.

I've argued this point ad nasuem in many a thread- mostly in regards to movies though. Movies, games, whatever the media- digital distribution is at least a decade off, but probably more.

How many times has the digital television changeover been put off, because of the amount of people who still don't have satellite or cable? How many people in this country have dial-up or worse for internet?

I'm sorry to say, but physical media is here to stay for the foreseeable future- or until we have a nationwide high-speed internet infrastructure.

Blu-ray, DVD, CDs, Video game Discs, will not be phased out anytime soon. The people who write these goddamn articles, always live in big cities or technologically savvy parts of the country. I live less than an hour outside of Charlotte, NC which up until recently was a major banking hub. I have access only to 26k dial-up or satellite internet, and can't get a decent cell-phone signal around my house. No cable, DSL, or decent mobile broadband is scheduled to be put out here anytime soon.

Until I see communication trucks laying or hanging some sort of cable in my area, I'm not holding my breath.

I guess I could have just said "I agree," but I've been struggling to upload a measly 60mb worth wedding videos all day to youtube. The internet has really been pissing me off. Fuck.

I never understand why these conversations always cause people to take an all or nothing stance on the subject. This doesn't have to be a zero sum game where while digital distribution grows retail distribution has to shrink. Everybody has a telephone these days but that doesn't mean the mailman is out of a job.

The problem is that a lot of these professionally written articles seem to mostly take the stance that the end of physical media is upon us. I know digital distribution is currently working and successful, but the idea that it will be "THE" business model in anything less than 10 years is just plain dumb. Maybe these guys know something that most of the country doesn't? I'd sure like to be privy to these great technology plans that our entertainment content creators have in store for us.


/rant

[TonyTheTiger]

I don't think the technological logistics of doing 100% digital distribution is the only barrier, though.

We are fully capable of phasing out paper money tomorrow. The cyberpunk idea of "creds" is not out of the question from a technical standpoint. But I doubt it'll happen anytime soon because 1) it's not necessary and 2) people are comfortable with the status quo.

Amazon.com does well but it isn't putting Best Buy or Wal-Mart out of business. There's something therapeutic about the act of shopping. We're social creatures and it's no surprise that "the marketplace" was the center of countless towns for the last few millennia.

There's also the piracy issue. Granted, nobody is stopping anybody from pirating media as it is now. But you do get something for buying a hard copy that the pirates do not. In the case of digital distribution, you lose that angle. The only reason then to actually buy the thing would be either the ethical implications or because you don't know how to obtain a pirated copy. Digital distribution might actually increase piracy rather than curb it.

[Gameguy]

We are fully capable of phasing out paper money tomorrow. The cyberpunk idea of "creds" is not out of the question from a technical standpoint. But I doubt it'll happen anytime soon because 1) it's not necessary and 2) people are comfortable with the status quo.

I've been to a few stores where the computers weren't working right(temporarily) and they couldn't accept credit/debit/gift cards. I can remember it happened in a coffee shop, a shoe store, and EB Games. The employees basically told people that they could only accept cash until it was fixed, and they'd have to come back some other time unless they had the cash to pay for it. Those times were a great inconvenience, I was there to buy things then, I didn't want to have to come back when it was better for them(I pay with cash so it's not really a problem for me, but I laugh at those who buy reloadable gift cards so it's "easier" to buy things). Though not electronic, I know some people who traded in a bunch of games to a small game store for credit, only the store went out of business before they could redeem the credit(they got a gift certificate for the value of the trades). Cash is good everywhere and doesn't expire.

There's no way I'd be comfortable with eliminating cash completely, plus how else would you buy used stuff off craigslist or garage sales? Most people like that accept cash, but aren't able to accept anything else.

[The 1 2 P]

This thread does come up every month or so. As usual, I feel that this is a long ways off(atleast a decade) because some people don't have the internet yet. And then you have many more people who do have the internet and don't download anything. Me personally, gaming content from Xbox live marketplace is the only stuff I download from the internet. I don't download music because I don't have an mp3 player and I don't download movies because I buy the ones I want.

Usually the people who claim that this transition will be happening soon are the ones who stand to be making a good amount of money from it. But there are many other companies who would be losing tons of money if this transition happened. Eventually it will happen but as others have already said, the ability to buy physical copies of games will pretty much always be around. Unless of course theres a government mandate where they decree that no more physical copies are allowed by law. I don't see that happening either.

[Push Upstairs]

Digital distribution is not going to go anywhere if broadband providers are implementing small download caps.

And if you have to *PAY* to get a higher download cap then that will eat into game income.

[TonyTheTiger]

I've been to a few stores where the computers weren't working right(temporarily) and they couldn't accept credit/debit/gift cards. I can remember it happened in a coffee shop, a shoe store, and EB Games. The employees basically told people that they could only accept cash until it was fixed, and they'd have to come back some other time unless they had the cash to pay for it. Those times were a great inconvenience, I was there to buy things then, I didn't want to have to come back when it was better for them(I pay with cash so it's not really a problem for me, but I laugh at those who buy reloadable gift cards so it's "easier" to buy things). Though not electronic, I know some people who traded in a bunch of games to a small game store for credit, only the store went out of business before they could redeem the credit(they got a gift certificate for the value of the trades). Cash is good everywhere and doesn't expire.

There's no way I'd be comfortable with eliminating cash completely, plus how else would you buy used stuff off craigslist or garage sales? Most people like that accept cash, but aren't able to accept anything else.

That's exactly my point. I'm saying it's technically feasible even though it's probably not a great idea.

[Bojay1997]

I've been to a few stores where the computers weren't working right(temporarily) and they couldn't accept credit/debit/gift cards. I can remember it happened in a coffee shop, a shoe store, and EB Games. The employees basically told people that they could only accept cash until it was fixed, and they'd have to come back some other time unless they had the cash to pay for it. Those times were a great inconvenience, I was there to buy things then, I didn't want to have to come back when it was better for them(I pay with cash so it's not really a problem for me, but I laugh at those who buy reloadable gift cards so it's "easier" to buy things). Though not electronic, I know some people who traded in a bunch of games to a small game store for credit, only the store went out of business before they could redeem the credit(they got a gift certificate for the value of the trades). Cash is good everywhere and doesn't expire.

There's no way I'd be comfortable with eliminating cash completely, plus how else would you buy used stuff off craigslist or garage sales? Most people like that accept cash, but aren't able to accept anything else.

There was an interesting documentary on BBC America a few weeks ago about the economy and they had an expert talking about why currency still exists despite the fact that it could have been phased out as early as the 1970s in most countries. Essentially, his position was that some transactions have to be anonymous and that is why there will always be currency. Things like toll booth fees, purchases at garage sales, buying small items from vending machines, buying porn or making donations into a collection basket or into a can at the 7-11 for some charity are places where it's not practical for someone to use a credit card. Chances are, if credit cards were the only options in those places it would not only kill the business model because of the added time and cost of processing transactions, but people just wouldn't spend the money or would do anything they could to avoid making the purchase.

[jb143]

And as I always mention when these topics come up...Walmart/Target/Gamestop/Best Buy, etc. will never let this happen. Simple as that. They want to make $$$ like everyone else. These "middlemen" won't let go of retail game sales without a fight. It will take years.

Exactly. At the very least, as long as there's a physical data storage medium that can be plugged in, there will always be a "Walmart/Target Exclusive Version" marketing deal.

Also, look at the casual game market. Most of those games can be downloaded in no time at all...yet they are top-sellers at retail locations.

[ToddofDoom]

GamesIndustry is running an interview with Theodore Bergquist, CEO of GamersGate, in which he forecasts the death of physical game distribution in favor of digital methods, perhaps in only a few years. He says, "Look at the music industry..."

If physical game distribution dies the home video game console dies with it. Why would a software company pay a video game company to sell what they could sell to PCs on the internet for free?

Imagine the lunacy of that for a second. Developing a virtual game for a system where only the users of that system could use it (say I don't know, 10-25% of the population) or releasing a virtual version of that game on the internet which about 95% of the population would have access to?

A "non-traditional" system like the Wii is the only way I could imagine that even being feasible. Handhelds might work too.

Getting rid of physical distribution would do to the video game industry the same thing it did to the music industry; Kill it. Really think about it. There are no more Rock Stars.

Now musicians get popular by getting their songs in commercials or movies (see Feist) The only Rock Stars we have now are the leftovers from the era before iTunes came along and the characters from whatever Disney channel show is hot with the twelve-year olds and creepy old men this week.

The only way you want this to happen is if you want to spend all day downloading (legally or illegally) a bunch of obscure games you've never heard of to find out which ones are good. Because the market will be flooded with mediocre games. Remember what happened to the video game industry the last time it was flooded by cheap and mediocre games?

It happened in about 1983.

[CosmicMonkey]

As I've said in other threads, I really can't wait for digital distribution to take over. Books, newspapers, movies, music, TV shows and games. It's obviously the future and the way forward, so there's no point complaining about it.

Give it 10 - 15 years and I'm sure most people will have their daily newspaper sat on their eBook reader (or iPhone or M$ Surface type device) at 6am every morning. I can also see services like NetFlix becoming the norm. Who wants to be tied to broadcast schedules? I want to watch what I want, when I want.

I'm really hoping that these rumours regarding a PSP 4000 sans UMD drive are true. It'd be very interesting to see a mainstream gaming product take the first leap into digital distribution only. I'm sure that PSP and Gameboy/DS will go this route first, it seems to make sense.

[TonyTheTiger]

Remember what happened to the video game industry the last time it was flooded by cheap and mediocre games?

The Wii.

But, in all seriousness, you have a point that home consoles would be pretty pointless with 100% digital distribution. What I think digital distribution advocates are aiming towards is what Microsoft and Sony hinted at for the 360 and PS3 in their E3 PR nonsense. They're suggesting that we're leaving the era of "this is the computer, that's the TV, that's the game console, that's the DVD player, yadda yadda..." and walking into the era of "this is the home entertainment device."

I have a few issues with that.

First of all, even collective function machines that do make sense tend to not outperform the separate versions. They sell Printer/Fax Machine/Scanner hybrids but a lot of people still prefer to get them all separate.

Also, it sounds too...infomercial, if that makes any sense. It slices, it dices, it makes the perfect piece of toast! I just can't shake this feeling that it's not a great idea from even a business perspective let alone a consumer one.

As I've said in other threads, I really can't wait for digital distribution to take over. Books, newspapers, movies, music, TV shows and games. It's obviously the future and the way forward, so there's no point complaining about it.

Give it 10 - 15 years and I'm sure most people will have their daily newspaper sat on their eBook reader (or iPhone or M$ Surface type device) at 6am every morning. I can also see services like NetFlix becoming the norm. Who wants to be tied to broadcast schedules? I want to watch what I want, when I want.

I'm really hoping that these rumours regarding a PSP 4000 sans UMD drive are true. It'd be very interesting to see a mainstream gaming product take the first leap into digital distribution only. I'm sure that PSP and Gameboy/DS will go this route first, it seems to make sense.

Nobody is saying that digital distribution won't expand. It obviously will. But I just don't think this zero sum game theory is realistic. Nothing works that way. The U.S. Navy is still active even though naval influence over the grand scheme of warfare diminished greatly in favor of air power.