Rumor: Xbox Natal is Actually Microsoft's Next Console

[TonyTheTiger]

Optical Drive
-DVD for the THIRD time? Even Sega, the bumbling failure of CD systems didn't use the same format on three consoles. Even SD cards or USB media would have been an upgrade, since those can easily hold more than 9gb of data, and their prices are rapidly falling. Unless the DVD drive is for legacy compatibility, they're killing themselves.

Operating System
-Put Windows 7 on it! Simply include a read-only partition with the backup image, and let it replace the PC! I would GLADLY replace my desktop gaming rig with an equivalent gaming console if it were a full-fledged PC. Think about what a standardized machine could do for PC gaming!

Controller
-Screw Natal, make a modular 360 pad. Allow both analog sticks to be swapped for touchpads and trackballs, and you have better FPS and RTS control in the living room.

This is what's important:

RELEASE & PRICING

Microsoft plans on a Q4 2010 simultaneous worldwide release. The company is targeting a sub $300 price point.

Given the economic situation, nobody wants to start running that tech race again. I think keeping things relatively inexpensive is a good move despite the fact that I think Q4 2010 is a little too soon for the 360's successor.

As for the console replacing the PC, it probably won't happen even if they wanted it to. The 90s were full of "entertainment center" electronics and all in one gadgets. None of them ever really set the world on fire. All it ends up doing is shooting the price up scaring away customers who'd buy it for its "main" purpose.

And I wouldn't worry too much about Natal being the exclusive interface. If Nintendo wasn't ballsy enough to try it then MS sure as hell wouldn't be. Now mouse/keyboard support, however, is something I can see being implemented.

[Enigmus]

If they'd stop being so cheap and just upgrade the cooling system on the 360, I'd be happy. And so would millions of others who have had multiple Xbox 360s die from overheating.

It's not just the cooling. it's also the cheap solder on the board.

[kedawa]

If MS does release a successor next year, it damn well better be backwards compatible with both hardware and software.

It's already an established fact that the main problem with the 360 is that the x-clamp used to attach the cooling system expands too much, causing the board to warp and pop the BGA connections on the GPU. The newer chips don't heat up as much so it is less of a problem with new consoles, but it still happens.

[NayusDante]

Supposedly (don't hold me to this, I forget the source), they're going for "forwards compatibility." Once the new system's dev kits make their way to developers, there's supposedly a format to do software that will run on both 360 and the new hardware, with more features and detail on the newer hardware. The idea being to continue support for 360 owners into the next generation, essentially the opposite of what Sony has done with PS2 compatibility.


As far as Natal is concerned, I'm very concerned. Has anyone considered the implications of such an intelligent camera (moreso than the regular one they have), placed where it can watch your family?

[parallaxscroll]

I don't believe this 'Xbox 360 Turbo' will be a true successor to Xbox 360 (the Xbox3 will be far more powerful and is a few more years away) but more like an upgrade. The question is, how much of an upgrade. Probably something like DS to DSi, GameBoy to GameBoy Color, GameCube to Wii, TurboGrafx-16 to SuperGrafx, etc. So probably not something like a generational leap like GameBoy to GBA, or Genesis 32X. That 32X upgrade was something that was actually a very large leap over Genesis (40 times on paper) even though developers didn't push it very hard and it failed. I'm expecting Xbox 360 Turbo to be 2 ~ 4 times more powerful than Xbox 360 overall. A decent upgrade that developers will really love.

Now with this upgraded 360 coming in a little over 1 year, the next-gen Xbox3 is probably going to be a little farther away, like 2012 or 2013. Maybe not even until 2015 if Microsoft sticks to what they said this last week.
Xbox 360 Turbo might be the way that Microsoft can keep this generation going another 5 years (in 2010 Xbox 360 will be 5 years old). Or I could be entirely wrong.

[Steve W]

As far as Natal is concerned, I'm very concerned. Has anyone considered the implications of such an intelligent camera (moreso than the regular one they have), placed where it can watch your family?

What makes me think it would be a hit is because of the 'attention whore' socially retarded kids growing up today. Social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook, countless junk videos of kids talking about anything on YouTube, the fact that you rarely see teenagers *not* staring at their cellphone screens anymore. Kids don't seem to be able to do anything by themselves anymore, there's no social independence. Broadband internet access has come a long way since the original Xbox's launch, couple that with a new Xbox Satan (anyone misread that when they see 'Natal'?) with the special camera, and then Xbox Live with new social networking style sections for video chat and such, and they could have a winner on their hands that would really appeal to teenagers, their main demographic. Microsoft is practically in a league of their own as far as ripping off other's ideas, they could take all sorts of social networking ideas from other sites, incorporate them in countless ways into Xbox Live utilizing the camera, and hit every teenager or college student's proverbial G-spot.

[Sonicwolf]

What makes me think it would be a hit is because of the 'attention whore' socially retarded kids growing up today. Social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook, countless junk videos of kids talking about anything on YouTube, the fact that you rarely see teenagers *not* staring at their cellphone screens anymore. Kids don't seem to be able to do anything by themselves anymore, there's no social independence. Broadband internet access has come a long way since the original Xbox's launch, couple that with a new Xbox Satan (anyone misread that when they see 'Natal'?) with the special camera, and then Xbox Live with new social networking style sections for video chat and such, and they could have a winner on their hands that would really appeal to teenagers, their main demographic. Microsoft is practically in a league of their own as far as ripping off other's ideas, they could take all sorts of social networking ideas from other sites, incorporate them in countless ways into Xbox Live utilizing the camera, and hit every teenager or college student's proverbial G-spot.

Well that and pump more money out of people with extra features on XBL.

[kedawa]

Old tech + gimmicky control scheme = BIG$
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be true.

[NayusDante]

If they're indeed going for the mass market, it's actually going to be a difficult battle. Nintendo pretty much dominates that, so they're coming up against tough competition. How do you convince Wii owners to buy a new console?

If it's a jump up from the 360, it will at least satiate the hardcore crowd. I just wonder of Microsoft and Sony will inadvertantly abdicate their thrones, only to let someone else jump in and take the hardcore crowd.

[Iron Draggon]

I'm more interested in what this means for the Wii... will they release Wii HD in the same timeframe to compete with the new 360? sounds like they pretty much have to, or risk losing customers to MS... I'm ready for Wii HD now!

[kedawa]

I don't think MS will have a problem competing with the Wii as long as they can sell casual gamers on the joys of online multiplayer.
If there's one weakness in nintendo's strategy, it's their backward-ass online strategy.

[Zap!]

Maybe I missed it, but what will the media be? They can't use Blu-Ray, so what then? Can't use DVD's, 4.7 gigs in puny. Even dual layer is nothing.

[Sonicwolf]

Maybe I missed it, but what will the media be? They can't use Blu-Ray, so what then? Can't use DVD's, 4.7 gigs in puny. Even dual layer is nothing.

They would probably use... HDDVDs. No really, think about it. If they cant use Blu Ray, and DVD is too puny, why not go with what already exists? There is no sense in wasting tons of money developing yet another proprietery format for game discs. Not like it would play movies in HDDVD

[j_factor]

HD-DVD drives are no longer manufactured, though. There are other (somewhat obscure) formats in development, like DMD. I don't know that developing a proprietary format is really all that expensive, either. How much did it cost Sega to come up with GD-ROMs?

I see flash memory cards as a potential future format, but I don't think it'll be cheap enough by 2011.

[heybtbm]

How much did it cost Sega to come up with GD-ROMs?

Their entire console division.

[Sonicwolf]

Their entire console division.

Oh you just had to say it.

[TonyTheTiger]

Generally speaking, a dual layer DVD will provide enough space. The only caveat will be multiple game discs for those FMV happy RPGs. If I'm Microsoft I'm going to do a cost/benefit analysis and ask myself whether the extra storage space of a new format is worth a $100+ premium on the console when most developers won't need the extra gigs.

The problem with going to a format like flash memory or any kind of proprietary format is that the console ends up taking a step backward. If you go with DVD you might not be able to say the consumers can watch movies in the newest high tech format but you can at least say that they can play most of what they've already got and the new machine either exceeds or matches the last one in every category. Taking away DVD playing capability will appear to be a huge step backwards when your last two machines were able to do it just fine.

Admittedly, I don't think many people are wanting of a new DVD player. But while it is highly unlikely that it would be a deal breaker for most people, from a PR perspective it would sound a lot like what Nintendo and Sony have been doing with their handhelds as of late with this zero sum game of "get this but lose that."

[Letiumtide]

Sounds dubious to me, especially since 360 games already run at 1080p, why would they announce a processor that runs at 1080p and say that their old one ran at 720p when that's a lie?

Regardless, they announced more or less that Natal would work with existing Xbox units, in the Milo demonstration there is a running developer 360 right beside the TV.

I think it's all rumour and speculation.

[j_factor]

Sounds dubious to me, especially since 360 games already run at 1080p, why would they announce a processor that runs at 1080p and say that their old one ran at 720p when that's a lie?

Actually that's true. The Xbox 360 hardware only goes up to 720p natively. 1080p is only output by scaling; internally, the resolution is still 720p. You probably don't remember, but at launch the system only output 720p, and 1080p was only added via a firmware update about a year after launch.

[ProgrammingAce]

Actually that's true. The Xbox 360 hardware only goes up to 720p natively. 1080p is only output by scaling; internally, the resolution is still 720p. You probably don't remember, but at launch the system only output 720p, and 1080p was only added via a firmware update about a year after launch.

Depends on the game these days. Some games can run natively at 1080p. Some games (like Halo 3) run at really stupid resolutions somewhere in the middle (1152x640)