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Thread: John Carmack: PS4 will be first to market

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    Default John Carmack: PS4 will be first to market

    http://www.mcvuk.com/news/35344/Carm...irst-to-market

    Carmack: PS4 will be first to market
    by Ben Parfitt

    id exec expects next hardware to ship without optical media option

    John Carmack, technical director at id Software, has predicted that Sony will be the first platform holder to make a move into the next generation of gaming hardware – though he doesn’t expect any new machines to be announced in the near future.

    “The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next-gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things,” Carmack told CD-Action, as spotted by Eurogamer’s Digital Foundry.

    “Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely.

    “As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next-gen consoles comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later.”

    Carmack also predicted that at least one of the successors to Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii will ship without the capacity for optical media.


    “I think that Xbox Live and the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution,” he added.

    “I think there's a decent chance that one of the next-gen consoles will be without optical media. The uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected.”

    http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/di...gen-blog-entry

    Carmack talks next gen consoles... and beyond

    August 10th, 2009

    John Carmack has talked at length about what he expects from the next generation of consoles, planning to create brand new tech that allows his company to create cross-generational games that span Xbox 360/PS3 along with whatever their successors may be. The id software technical director also believes that console-makers are in danger of slamming into a power wall that may be impossible to engineer around, with the platform holders perhaps looking to cloud computing to continue the console arms race.

    Carmack's comments are found within a collection of three videos posted a week ago by Polish site CD-Action, in which the idTech mastermind talks without respite about the engine behind new game Rage along with other hardcore topics, armed only with a comedically branded soft drink. Watch him go: it's absolutely remarkable. According to CD-Action, the interview was recorded around a month ago.

    "I have a good sense of where technology is going but larger things about what businesses choose to do and big businesses like Microsoft and Sony... those are decisions above my pay grade and not really in my line of business, or what I think about a lot," Carmack says. "I think that Xbox Live... the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution. I think there's a decent chance that one of the next gen consoles will be without optical media... the uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected."

    Carmack goes on to talk about how he believes that one or the other of the major HD console-makers will jump the gun with the leap to the next generation (hinting that it will be Sony), but in common with many other developers believes that their best interests are served by prolonging the lifespan of the current consoles.

    "The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things," he says. "Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely. As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next gen console comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later."

    The general roadmap for the next gen architectures has already been laid down though, and the future appears to be all about variations of Intel's Larrabee proposition, where many tiny, fully programmable cores combine to form one powerful chip that may well work as both CPU and GPU.

    "We do have a very good sense of where the technology is going because we talk to NVIDIA, we talk to Intel, we talk to ATI/AMD and they're all pursuing variations on massive multi-core processor integration," Carmack says, "There's lots of interesting things about that, about how we need to think about things on the game development side to take advantage of that."

    Real-time ray-tracing has often been seen as the holy grail of graphics rendering and simply unobtainable with the levels of technology we have available, but it may well find a place within the next gen consoles.

    "The big question is, are we going to be able to do a ray-casting primitive for a lot of things?" he ponders. "Certainly we'll still be doing a lot of conventional stuff like animated characters and things like that very likely will be drawn not incredibly differently from how they're drawn now. Hopefully we'll be able to use some form of sparse voxel octree representation cast stuff for some of the things in the world that are gonna be rigid-bodied... maybe we'll have deformations on things like that. But that's a research project I'm excited to get back to in the relatively near future. We can prototype that stuff now on current hardware and if we're thinking that... this type of thing will be ten times faster on the hardware that ends up shipping, we'll be able to learn a lot from that."

    However, while he predicts that the leaps in cutting edge console technology are set to continue (certainly there is no hint from him that Microsoft or Sony will follow a Wii-style strategy of simply adding minor or incremental upgrades to their existing hardware), we are swiftly reaching the point where platform holders will be unable to win their battles against the laws of physics.

    "We talk about these absurd things like how many teraflops of processing and memory that are going into our game machines," Carmack says, speculating off-hand that the next gen consoles will have at least 2GB of internal RAM. "It's great and there's going to be at least another generation like that, although interestingly we are coasting towards some fundamental physical limits on things. We've already hit the megahertz wall and eventually there's going to be a power density wall from which you won't get more processing out there..."

    That being the case, he speculates that the game-makers could move into different directions to provide new game experiences and at that point, the almost mythical cloud computing concept could make an impact.

    "There'll be questions of whether we shift to a cloud computing infrastructure... lots of interesting questions about whether you have the computing power in your living room versus somewhere else," he says, noting that while latency is a fundamental issue, the sheer scope of storage available online opens up intriguing possibilities. "Certainly the easier aspect of that is 'net as storage' where it's all digital distribution and you could wind up doing an idTech 5-like thing... and blow it up to World of Warcraft size so you need a hundred petabytes of storage in your central game system. We can do that now! It's not an absurd thing to talk about. Games are already in the tens of millions of dollars in terms of budget size and that's probably going to continue to climb there. The idea of putting millions of dollars into higher-sized storage... it's not unreasonable to at least consider."

    Returning to the concept of the next generation console, John Carmack is already planning to take advantage of the new hardware and is planning to have systems in place to ensure that a sneaky pre-emptive launch from one of the platform holders won't catch id software by surprise.

    "What I'm planning to do is set up a new rendering engine that co-exists with the current one... and I intend to develop it like that, so you have an idTech 5 version and then have everything working the same [with] an alternate data set that you can render with a different version," he revealed. "So the hope would be that if we do get some flashy new graphics hardware on there that we would possibly have the option of releasing a game cross-generational like that. Same game, same design across everything but different media set, different rendering engine... That also allows me to work on something without having to involve the entire team. That's something where we can take a couple of people, go out, work on prototyping proof of concepts while the rest of the company is building the production titles."
    http://ps3.ign.com/articles/101/1012811p1.html

    id's Carmack: We'll See PS4 Before Next Xbox
    Developer says Sony won't want to play catch up again.

    by Jim Reilly

    August 11, 2009 - John Carmack believes Sony will be the first hardware company out of the next-gen console gate.

    Id Software's founder, and long-time developer of everything Doom and Quake, says Sony won't want to spend another generation playing catch up to Microsoft's next iteration of the Xbox 360 (via Edge).

    "The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things," Carmack said. "Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely.

    Carmack also said he hopes the current console generation lasts as long as possible.

    "As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next gen console comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later," he added.

    But will we see the end of disc media on game consoles? Carmack also added he wouldn't be surprised if one of the future consoles releases without an optical disc drive.

    "I think that Xbox Live... the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution," he said.

    "I think there's a decent chance that one of the next gen consoles will be without optical media... the uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected."
    Last edited by parallaxscroll; 08-12-2009 at 02:50 AM.

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    Digital Distribution argument again? Has it really been that long since the last DD thread made its rounds here? Guess not, so here goes...

    Is there any kind of data to the percentage of Xbox 360 owners to Live users? Same also goes for PS3 owners to PSN users? Maybe digital distribution for some consoles is closer than we thought. I personally don't think so, but if the manufacturers say 60 percent or more are using online services, it'd be pretty hard to argue against Digital Distribution for consoles anyway.

    I'd think that if they take manufacturing costs out of the equation, they may be able to make up enough for the lost customers to go with this business model.

    That could also turn into a bad business move, if the Digital Distribution model was miscalculated and a competitor retained a media drive of some sort.

    I don't know if it's really possible, but I'd like to see some numbers. I personally think there's current bandwidth limitations to downloading large games. Not to mention data infrastructure problems that I don't think will be overcome by the next gen rollout.
    Last edited by TheDomesticInstitution; 08-11-2009 at 08:22 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDomesticInstitution View Post
    That could also turn into a bad business move, if the Digital Distribution model was miscalculated and a competitor retained a media drive of some sort.

    I don't know if it's really possible, but I'd like to see some numbers. I personally think there's current bandwidth limitations to downloading large games. Not to mention data infrastructure problems that I don't think will be overcome by the next gen rollout.
    I imagine Microsoft will go digital, and when they realize there's still tons of people without net and Nintendo is somehow still reaping money by the boatload because their system was smart enough to use a disk drive, I'll be thinking "Man, these systems are more like monkeys fighting".

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDomesticInstitution View Post
    I don't know if it's really possible, but I'd like to see some numbers.
    The number of people pissed off that they can't walk into a GameStop and buy super cheap used games? A lot.

    That's a number you can take to the bank. If people catch on to the fact that game prices stay high for an exceedingly long period of time because pricing is controlled by MS/Sony/Nintendo there will be far fewer people willing to invest in the machine because they'll know that no matter how old the games get, they'll still be $40-$60 a pop. That'll be even more apparent if competing consoles stick to the current status quo.

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    John Carmack's a good guy to talk about what's going on in gaming....in 1994.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDomesticInstitution View Post
    ... I personally think there's current bandwidth limitations to downloading large games. Not to mention data infrastructure problems that I don't think will be overcome by the next gen rollout.
    It's no secret that many broadband service providers are beginning to throw monthly DL and/or usage caps on basic users.

    I don't see that going away or getting drastically better within the next 5-10 years, which should effectively cause problems in owning a 100% digital distribution version of a next gen console.

    I DO think we'll probably see a 100% DL version of a major console within the next 2-3 console generations, but not the immediate next one.

    Till then it'll probably remain the same "hybrid" media-based AND online DL structure for the forseeable future.

    Hopefully Sony can maintain their free online structure throughout all of this, as I'm NOT looking forward to paying for more than one premium yearly online gaming service.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ice View Post
    John Carmack's a good guy to talk about what's going on in gaming....in 1994.
    1994 or not, you can't deny that the man helped create one of the best PC games ever made.

    Of course, I'm talking about The Catacomb.
    Last edited by Gapporin; 08-12-2009 at 01:46 AM.
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    Digital Distribution will be rapidly re-thought once the PSP Go, to put it bluntly, goes. As for the PS4 kicking off the 8th generation... I highly doubt it. The PS2 still has life in it, let alone the PS3.

    In fact I doubt we'll even see the 8th generation until 2012 at the very earliest. I don't just mean release dates, I mean announcements.

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    I'm sure Sony's typical corporate response would be: "We have never been first to market with our consoles because we never had to be. Well, except for this current gen."
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    zomg ken i liek preorder nao?

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    Quote Originally Posted by smork View Post
    zomg ken i liek preorder nao?
    Can this trend in internet communication die already? Pretty please?

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    Hey, looks like iD Software was "first to market" cuz they failed, LOLZ

    (w/ apologies to ProgAce heh)

    Quote Originally Posted by smork View Post
    zomg Keen i liek preorder nao?
    fixed

    Back on topic: So basically consoles are cheap PCs without drives or the pretty graphics (but at a lower price). What else isn't new?

    This makes the consoles an even tougher sell to me, and probably is going to drive more developers to look seriously at other digital-distribution systems that do not require such blisteringly expensive and restrictive licensing and control as publishing through Sony, MS, etc. would.
    Last edited by Ed Oscuro; 08-11-2009 at 09:09 PM.

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    I think the Iphone is pretty good proof that digital distribution is here, and it is the future. Though the argument that a console without optical media coming soon is pretty silly, especially since the current consoles have the ability to download full versions of big releases already.
    <Evan_G> i keep my games in an inaccessable crate where i can't play them

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    So far I am not convince Digital Distribution is a way to go. Company has a lot to prove before digital distribution is a norm. First they have to prove regional content is not restricted to one region. Anyone should be able to purchased or download content from anywhere around the world.

    Secondly, DO NOT put DRM on any content. DRM never proves to work. It cause more problem than to solve. Example: Gears of War DRM. Thirdly, make their price fair. It would suck if people from Asia would have to pay USD price to download one game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan_G View Post
    I think STEAM is pretty good proof that digital distribution is here, and it is the future.
    Even better than the iPhone. No "oh gawsh we don't liek ur code" shenanigans going on there. Plus mods work right from the main menu, and you can even add non-Steam games for convenience (though I never do that).

    Quote Originally Posted by ScourDX View Post
    So far I am not convince Digital Distribution is a way to go. Company has a lot to prove before digital distribution is a norm. [...] Secondly, DO NOT put DRM on any content. DRM never proves to work. It cause more problem than to solve.
    "How is DRRM formed?????"

    They need to do way instain company> who DRM thier playyers. becuse these playyer cant nocd back
    Last edited by Ed Oscuro; 08-11-2009 at 10:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScourDX View Post
    So far I am not convince Digital Distribution is a way to go. Company has a lot to prove before digital distribution is a norm. First they have to prove regional content is not restricted to one region. Anyone should be able to purchased or download content from anywhere around the world.

    Secondly, DO NOT put DRM on any content. DRM never proves to work. It cause more problem than to solve. Example: Gears of War DRM. Thirdly, make their price fair. It would suck if people from Asia would have to pay USD price to download one game.
    Pay Digital Distribution has to play by the same rules that physical distribution does for a myriad of reasons (most to do with financials and international distribution policies). Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo want your Dollars if you're downloading games in the US and your Yen if you're downloading games in Japan ... with the constant variances in international currency rates, they don't want anybody getting a bargain by taking advantage of a devalued currency. (Not to mention that all regions have their respective "ESRB" type ratings system which can't be properly maintained if people are buying games from another region.)

    And NO DRM? Are you kidding? While it would make for a hassle free experience with transferring DLC software on a console prone to failure (360) it's practically ASKING for people to pirate/share games.

    We'll NEVER see it from any legit console developer in the US.

    Instead of NO DRM I say that companies like Microsoft should RELAX their DRM a bit - they can take a page from the current model used by Apple and Sony - allowing paid content to be downloaded or used on up to 5 "registered" devices or consoles is very fair and prevents situations where users who fall into some type of situation where they have a HDD full of legitimately "paid/owned" content that can't be used because the console that it's "tied" to is broken/not use-able and they're unable to transfer their single DRM license to a new console.
    Last edited by Frankie_Says_Relax; 08-12-2009 at 12:41 AM.
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    How much money do we have to pay until we fully own the rights to a game? $1 million, $1 billion? If everyone pitch in $1 and contribute millions to buy out the Mario franchaise and make it legal for everyone to download for free, then everyone own the game and there will be no piracy. This goes for every product. This will never happen because company wants to grab as much money as possible until we can no longer afford to support them.

    Still I am not convince with Digital download because our ISP here charge outrageous price. 2 gig/month for $30. How do we expect to download anything if ISP impose restriction on our bandwidth usage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScourDX View Post
    How much money do we have to pay until we fully own the rights to a game? $1 million, $1 billion? If everyone pitch in $1 and contribute millions to buy out the Mario franchaise and make it legal for everyone to download for free, then everyone own the game and there will be no piracy. This goes for every product. This will never happen because company wants to grab as much money as possible until we can no longer afford to support them.


    You want to fully own the rights to a game? Make one... Go ahead, we'll wait.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Done? Great, now try to sell it. Then when people steal it (if it's even worth stealing...) remember what you posted and feel shame for trying to make a living off your own labor.
    Last edited by Icarus Moonsight; 08-12-2009 at 06:10 PM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gapporin View Post
    1994 or not, you can't deny that the man helped create one of the best PC games ever made.

    Of course, I'm talking about The Catacomb.
    Holy fuck man, you just became my idol for bringing that game up. That game was awesome.

    Honestly, even though I know what happened with ps2 vs dc, I surely hope sony does not make the same mistake with the ps4 by releasing it too early.

    I will not deny that ps3 is awesome. ps3 is an awesome system. it is just not holding the sales as well as the other 2 systems.

    saturn was an awesome system, but was not able to keep the numbers against the ps1 (i do not know how well it did against the n64, but i am sure somebody else could fill in that blank).

    then the dc came out. it came out a year before ps2, and did not do near as well either. while it still did pretty good (shit, it still has games coming out for it), it was just not able to hold the numbers of the ps2 and then the xbox came out later on.

    while sony is a huge fucking company, if ps4 falls to the same fate as the dc, at least it will not take down the entire company. sony sells enough vaio's and tv's to support themselves if need be.

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    The first console of a generation never ends up being #1. 360, Dreamcast, 3DO, Turbografx, none of those were #1 systems. You have to go back to the NES, and that's a very special case, with the crash (and somewhat debatable, since 7800's were sold on a limited basis in '84). Hell, the VCS came after the Channel-F. So given that, why would Sony be in a rush to come out first?

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