I predict carts are back next gen...

[Leo_A]

so you guys think manufacturing sd cards are expensive?

cmon...

It is compared to DVD or Blu-Ray disc. You can press dozens of DVD's for how much it cost to produce 1 two gig SD card.

They're not dirt cheap to manufacturer, it cost several times the amount to produce one SD card with limited capacity compared to multiples of disc with much greater capacities.

Putting games on SD cards of the capacity you desire would result in games that make $80 Nintendo 64 games look cheap in comparison.

SD cards are only viable for uses that require the ability to rewrite the content stored on it. It isn't a viable medium for releasing content on, it doesn't approach being cost effective.

Actually, I would predict that at least one of the "Big 3" will go DLC only next gen. It is almost definite that Microsoft will.

Hardly almost definite, maybe if the 360 isn't replaced for 10 or 15 more years. Going download only isn't yet viable, the infrastructure isn't there to support it, a drastic sudden shift would anger retailers and alienate users, and too many people are still not taking their consoles online. We'll see a definite shift with the successors to the current consoles, but the transition will be gradual. Maybe with the Xbox 1440...

[kupomogli]

FF7 on PSP2. The PSP2 will run off copy protected memory sticks. This is fact, unless it doesn't happen.

[BHvrd]

Yeah, but you can only stream media if you have an internet connection, and since people STILL don't have internet in their homes today, they're not going to mainstream it in. Especially if it's a pay-service like Xbox live. And then there's the cap like dendawg said.

This is all true, but if it takes off you can bet that the company/ies involved will make it worthwhile to GET broadband to you at any cost.

All they have to do is pay the right people to raise the cap limits and work with providers to offer compensation. I wouldn't doubt they somehow went over their heads with claims that it cuts down on consumer waste.

Getting it "to" you is not an issue if it makes shitloads of $$$.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Has anyone said "no" yet?

[Rickstilwell1]

All I know is that if they do switch to digital distribution sometime, they better have free demos of ALL the games so we can make sure we won't regret our purchases.

[WhatsMyUsername]

If it changes to anything, it will change to digital distribution.

[darkslime]

Nope, your idea is just wishful thinking.

I think we will totally abandon discs, carts etc in favor of digital download only. It'll be good for most games and the publishers, but a nightmare for us collectors.

[Rickstilwell1]

Yeah pretty much everyone will be forced to be a collector because we can't sell them back. We'll have to store all the games on external hard drives or cards like we do already for Wiiware and VC and just keep them all.

If you look at how crappy games have been becoming gameplay wise though, maybe the next stuff will be such shovelware it won't be worth collecting?

[madman77]

It could theoretically happen, since EPROM is much cheaper than flash, but it's highly unlikely that anyone will try it after seeing how N64 performed.

EPROM is cheaper than flash? Since when? The largest EPROM chips available are 4 megabyte, or 32mbit. Highly ineffective to use them as opposed to much larger flash chips for anything. At any rate....carts would never have the need to be re-writeable, so it's a pointless argument.

[crom]

we are far from digital distribution...

1. I have a bandwidth cap, Im not about to wait till next month when my bandwidth is reset just to buy a game...

dont give me this talk about cable/dsl companies coming around for the video game companies crap... in my city alone their is 5 different providers, you think that video game companies are going to toss money around to accompany our video game downloads? get real....

2. your basicly forcing ppl to pay for the internet (broadband service at that) in order to purchase your system... once again... get real

3. imagine madden selling only on bandwidth... say your average game is 6gigs... for only 1 million copies of the game you would need 32 000 Terabites for distribution... thats insane...

servers would crash, customer service numbers would be flooded.... and basing your platform on digital distribution you cant have any downtime... any... so once again get real....

to borrow from a friend of mine... "If SD cards are manufactured on a massive scale and used to the same degree as optical media, their cost of manufacture would also be next to nothing"

[Kid Ice]

I agree.

If they make carts again they can modify their DRM on the fly. As opposed to discs which are not rewritable. This will give them more control over "piracy".

It's less wear and tear on systems without a disc spinning around, which will reduce the number of systems returned for maintenance.

Leaving the optical drive out will decrease the cost of manufacturing the systems.

Forget about watching movies. Every time someone buys a $20 movie means they're not buying a $60 game. Every two hours a kid is watching a movie is 2 hours he's not buying stuff to download.

"Digital distribution" will just remain a component of the experience. They will not move to an all digital model...what is to stop them from doing that right now? They still need to sell premium $60 games at retail.

I think Nintendo will do it.

[crom]

I agree.

I think Nintendo will do it.

I agree with you...

basicly it doesnt matter what EA or activision or any other video game publisher wants...

it matters what microsoft or sony or nintendo want...

if they want a cheaper system to manufacture then thats what they will do...

nintendo will be the first to do this...

[c0ldb33r]

Um....no. Not unless Neo Geo comes out with a new arcade console system.

Goddamn, imagine the size of a neogeo cart that was 25 GB.

It'd be the size of a car.

[Az]

This is all true, but if it takes off you can bet that the company/ies involved will make it worthwhile to GET broadband to you at any cost.

Like most topics we discuss on a niche forum, what applies to us is usually not the common consensus. A lot of the speculation in this thread needs to be checked.....

Microsoft likes to throw around numbers a lot, especially about XBL membership. I've not dug around, but MS never distinguishes silver from gold members in these quotes.

Does anyone know the numbers of the current 3 console sales versus those owners who use their internet services? In other words, what percentage of Wii/PS3/360 users actually get online versus those that don't?

What percentage of the US population even has access (much less subscribes) to broadband?

[tubeway]

Goddamn, imagine the size of a neogeo cart that was 25 GB.

It'd be the size of a car.

Introducing the Volkswagen Neo Geo. Now you drive and game at the same time.

"Yo dawg, I heard you like games, so I put a game in your car so you can game while you drive."

Yes. I am aware how awful those jokes are.

[c0ldb33r]

Yes. I am aware how awful those jokes are.

[Bojay1997]

Like most topics we discuss on a niche forum, what applies to us is usually not the common consensus. A lot of the speculation in this thread needs to be checked.....

Microsoft likes to throw around numbers a lot, especially about XBL membership. I've not dug around, but MS never distinguishes silver from gold members in these quotes.

Does anyone know the numbers of the current 3 console sales versus those owners who use their internet services? In other words, what percentage of Wii/PS3/360 users actually get online versus those that don't?

What percentage of the US population even has access (much less subscribes) to broadband?

According to the last figures I saw, over 2/3 of the total US population who regularly uses the web does so on a broadband connection. Among gamers, I think it's probably closer to 3/4 or more since they tend to be early adopters. It's still not 100%, but it's getting closer and closer. Once that happens, I can guarantee that the big three are going to push as hard as they can to force us all to download all of our games. Since games aren't like other recorded media in the sense that they can't be shared among many different kinds of devices in different locations and of different brands, other than collectors, there will no longer really be a market for recorded video game media. I personally am done collecting when that happens.

[Hep038]

I really do not see being able to manufacturer a SD card cheaper than a disk, I do not care how many you make. I am not saying they will not go to carts, I am just saying it will not be because they can make SD cards as cheap as disks.

[backguard]

Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?

[SegaAges]

Storage capacity is beside the point. The Point (from the perspective of the Money Man) is ownership, and that's why streaming content is going to be touted as the Next Great Thing.

"Oh, you wanna play Madden 2011? No no, don't get up off the couch! We will pipe the game to you. Sit back, have another dozen pizza rolls. How does, eh, $24.95 for the initial download sound? Good?! Add-ons? $4.95 per unlockable team! Okay! And how about a 49 cents per online game, yeah? See! This is easy! And when Madden 2012 comes out, we'll do it just like this again. Easy. Oh, no, 2011 will cease to function at that point. Anway, that was last year's game. Don't you want this year's game instead?"

Enjoy yourselves. I'll be over here with my old carts. No, they're not bleeding edge graphics, but they belong to me at least.

I am so having a nightmare tonight. Thanks Pant