Could Nintendo's next home console entice the early adopters/graphic whores?

[WCP]

They'd have to pack in a classic controller as part of the standard console bundle if they want to be as friendly as possible to 3rd parties.

Still having to shoehorn motion control into their biggest releases in 2012 if the WiiHD only shipped with motion controls could be enough to still keep 3rd parties away.

I think Nintendo would be best served providing both options right out of the box next time around. I suspect that is going to be Microsoft and Sony's strategy.

This is a very good point actually. Would Nintendo be willing to include a standard type, dual thumbstick controller as a pack-in with every system? Will they also include a Wii-mote like wand with every single system?

I think it's safe to assume that while the Wii was WILDLY successful because of the newness of the Wii-mote gimmick, they have to know that some of their games would play much better with a standard dual-thumbstick controller. But there no denying that adding one into every system they make will add a cost to the overall package that could take a bit away from the tech side.

I don't think there is any chance that Nintendo comes in at more than $299.99. They won't go above $299.99, I just can't see it. So, if $299.99 was the price, and you have to bundle two controllers in the box, then that is going to cut into the technological ambitions a bit. Still, regardless, the huge bump in ram will be significant.

But yeah, you make a good point. All 3 companies really need to pack both controllers into the box. The 32X, Sega CD and N64 Expansion pack have proved that add-on's, while initially quite interesting, just don't work in the long run. Developers want to sell to the entire console base, not a fraction-offed portion of it.

[Leo_A]

Won't the next one be 3D compatible with 3D TVs? Since they're going with 3D for handhelds they'll probably do the same thing with home consoles too.

They've publically said in recent days that 3D support was unlikely for Nintendo's next generation console.

"Glasses-free is a big deal," Fils-Aime said. "We've not said publicly what the next thing for us will be in the home console space, but based on what we've learned on 3D, likely, that won't be it."

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6306378...p%3Btitle%3B19

[Nature Boy]

Personally I don't know how the big N can start hawking another console if it's just a Wii with HD graphics. The reason the Wii blew up is that it enticed non-gamers into buying it. They can't count on those same gamers going "oooh - Wii Sports in HD" and plunking down their coin all over again. They need a new hook or they'll get crushed like they did in the N64/Gamecube eras (in terms of console sales that is - not profitability or anything, you know, actually important)

[WCP]

Personally I don't know how the big N can start hawking another console if it's just a Wii with HD graphics. The reason the Wii blew up is that it enticed non-gamers into buying it. They can't count on those same gamers going "oooh - Wii Sports in HD" and plunking down their coin all over again. They need a new hook or they'll get crushed like they did in the N64/Gamecube eras (in terms of console sales that is - not profitability or anything, you know, actually important)

Here's the thing though, I honestly think that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could get all the hardcore early adopters jumping on their bandwagon, and that first movers advantage could be really important. I think the timing is absolutely perfect for Nintendo, especially if they shock the gaming world at e3 and announce a new console for this November. I doubt that will happen, instead we'll likely need to wait another year, but regardless, Nintendo is going to launch by themselves. Microsoft will stick with the 360 for 1 more year, and Sony will most likely stick with the PS3 for a couple more years.

This leaves a HUGE opening for a new system for the early adopter console type gamer. The console gamer that just doesn't want to mess with the whole PC thing, just wants a straight up gaming console, but is seriously jonesing for some new hardware. Remember the launch of the Xbox 360 in November of 2005? We really didn't need Next-Gen hardware at that time, but the 360 came out anyways, and was pretty much a runaway success. The same thing could happen with a new Nintendo console.

Nintendo isn't going to be all about high-end technology with this console, but it doesn't really matter. By default, it will be years more advanced than the 360 and PS3 at least in the areas of Ram and GPU tech. Which game developer right now, has been the most vocal about wanting new gaming consoles? Epic Games. Iwata needs to get Mark Rein on the phone immediately and hand deliver Epic a development kit. Get them trying to port Unreal 4 to the Wii 2. All they need is one absolute showcase game, like the original Gears of War for 360, and I guarantee you the console graphic whores will be all over it.

[Rev. Link]

Nintendo isn't going to be all about high-end technology with this console, but it doesn't really matter. By default, it will be years more advanced than the 360 and PS3 at least in the areas of Ram and GPU tech. Which game developer right now, has been the most vocal about wanting new gaming consoles? Epic Games. Iwata needs to get Mark Rein on the phone immediately and hand deliver Epic a development kit. Get them trying to port Unreal 4 to the Wii 2. All they need is one absolute showcase game, like the original Gears of War for 360, and I guarantee you the console graphic whores will be all over it.

Yes, but there's the flaw in your argument. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Nintendo's next system was just about equal in power to the 360 or PS3.

For almost 5 years now, Nintendo has repeatedly stated that it isn't trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft. They're letting those companies go for the high end, power system demographic. Nintendo is too dead set on being different, even to their own detriment, to try and turn that around now and come out with a powerhouse system and attract companies like Epic.

I'd love to see it happen, but I just don't think it will.

[Leo_A]

He's not suggesting Nintendo is going to develop a powerhouse to directly compete on technology with Sony and Microsoft in the next console generation.

He's suggesting, that by default due to half a decade advancement in technology, that the Wii's successor could quite possibly be significantly more powerful than the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 even if Nintendo is crafting a budget friendly console that is going to be sold for a profit from day 1.

And if it's on the market for a decent amount of time before the competition enters the next generation console war, they might attract many people that are looking for cutting edge graphics since it will probably be the most powerful console on the market until Sony and Microsoft enter the fray at what most people think will be a later time.

Not much different then the situation the 3DS is in right now. It appears to be a good bit more powerful than the PSP even though Nintendo didn't design it to directly tackle Sony's next handheld on horsepower alone.

[Rev. Link]

He's not suggesting Nintendo is going to develop a powerhouse to directly compete on technology with Sony and Microsoft in the next console generation.

He's suggesting, that by default due to half a decade advancement in technology, that the Wii's successor could quite possibly be significantly more powerful than the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 even if Nintendo is crafting a budget friendly console that is going to be sold for a profit from day 1.

And if it's on the market for a decent amount of time before the competition enters the next generation console war, they might attract many people that are looking for cutting edge graphics since it will probably be the most powerful console on the market until Sony and Microsoft enter the fray at what most people think will be a later time.

Not much different then the situation the 3DS is in right now. It appears to be a good bit more powerful than the PSP even though Nintendo didn't design it to directly tackle Sony's next handheld on horsepower alone.

I understand what he's saying completely. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo went out of their way to make their next machine less powerful than it should be. The 360 was out for a whole year before the Wii, so by the arguments going on here that means that by default the Wii should be at least as powerful as the 360, but it's not. Nintendo made it much less powerful in order to save money.

Who's to say they won't do exactly the same thing this time around? Just because they'll be first out of the gate doesn't make any difference. They could easily decide to make a system that's just barely an upgrade over the Wii, one that winds up being about equal to the 360 and PS3, and run with it. They don't care one bit about attracting graphics whores. Nintendo is like the Chicago Cubs of video games. They know that it doesn't matter what kind of product they put out, 'cuz their fans are so crazy they'll keep paying for it no matter what.

And let's be honest about something else, while we're at it. Graphics whores aren't going to care about Nintendo. Ever. Most of them are kids who grew up on PSX, or PS2 even at this point, who can't get past the "Nintendo is for kids, lol" attitude. Even if Nintendo did come out with a console that was significantly more powerful than 360 and PS3, and even if they did manage to get some killer 3rd party games on it, all those graphics whore kiddies would just say, "I'm waiting for the PS4 or next Xbox."

It's exactly what happened to the Dreamcast, and we saw what that did to Sega. Nintendo knows it. They're not stupid. They're going to build their next system as absolutely cheaply as they can get away with. For better or for worse.

[WCP]

What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo went out of their way to make their next machine less powerful than it should be. The 360 was out for a whole year before the Wii, so by the arguments going on here that means that by default the Wii should be at least as powerful as the 360, but it's not.

There are two problems with that analogy:

1. This isn't a single year difference in technology. The 360/PS3 tech is from 2004/2005. We are in the year 2011 now.

2. The Wii wasn't new technology even in 2006 when it launched. It was simply a shrunk GameCube with a new interface and Wi-Fi built in. (and a couple of extras)

They could easily decide to make a system that's just barely an upgrade over the Wii, one that winds up being about equal to the 360 and PS3, and run with it. They don't care one bit about attracting graphics whores.

It's certainly possible, that Nintendo could decide to bring out a system that would simply get them to the same level of the 360 and PS3. However, even in that scenario, with how cheap ram is, their system should EASILY have quadruple the amount of ram, if not more. The fact that the 360 and PS3 are both stuck in the mud with 512mb of ram, is a pretty huge factor. Also, it would actually be kinda difficult for Nintendo to go to ATI and demand them to scrap everything they've learned in the last 7 years, and put the same GPU that's in the 360, into the Wii 2. In spite of Nintendo's lack of interest in technology, the GPU will be significantly more advanced than what we have in the 360 and PS3. It should have all the advanced shader technology that even bargain basement GPU's get nowadays.

Nintendo is like the Chicago Cubs of video games. They know that it doesn't matter what kind of product they put out, 'cuz their fans are so crazy they'll keep paying for it no matter what.

I won't disagree with this at all. They have their loyalists in the palm of their hand, and always will.

And let's be honest about something else, while we're at it. Graphics whores aren't going to care about Nintendo. Ever. Most of them are kids who grew up on PSX, or PS2 even at this point, who can't get past the "Nintendo is for kids, lol" attitude. Even if Nintendo did come out with a console that was significantly more powerful than 360 and PS3, and even if they did manage to get some killer 3rd party games on it, all those graphics whore kiddies would just say, "I'm waiting for the PS4 or next Xbox."

Now, here is where I beg to differ. Remember these graphic whores that you're talking about... these guys that grew up with PSX and PS2..... Don't you think they are a bit perplexed by this abnormally long console cycle? Graphic whores are just that.... Graphics whores. They want things to look PURDY. Now, admittedly, many of these graphic whores have already given up waiting around for this 10 year cycle to come to a close, and instead they decided to build a gaming PC. But.... There are graphics whores out there, that haven't played PC games in a very long, long time, and they aren't really interested in dealing with drivers and patches and editing config files, etc, etc. These graphic whores would LOVE anything even remotely next-gen, even if it's coming from the Disney-like Nintendo. When they see Mario running around in 1080p at 60 frames per second, they will be converted to the dark side, so to speak. (or I guess, the light side, lol)

It's exactly what happened to the Dreamcast, and we saw what that did to Sega. Nintendo knows it. They're not stupid. They're going to build their next system as absolutely cheaply as they can get away with. For better or for worse.

I'm sure they will build in cheaply, but at the same time, they haven't made a "new" console in over 10 years, if you know what I mean. Even as cheaply as they will design it, by default it's going to have significantly improved capabilities. Think of their next-console as the equivalent to the N64. The N64 wasn't lightyears beyond the Playstation or Saturn, but it still was technologically superior, and early adopters were all over the N64 playing Shadows of the Empire and Turok.

[Leo_A]

I understand what he's saying completely. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo went out of their way to make their next machine less powerful than it should be. The 360 was out for a whole year before the Wii, so by the arguments going on here that means that by default the Wii should be at least as powerful as the 360, but it's not.

You clearly didn't understand what he was saying completely.

The Xbox 360 didn't even come close to being sold at a profit when it launched. Why do you think the Wii should've suddenly been able to profitably out perform the Xbox 360 just a few months later at a fraction of the MSRP?

Time marches on quickly. What was cutting edge back when the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 launched can be done very cheaply in 2011. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Nintendo, in their quest to market a next generation console that is affordable yet still be sold at a profit from day 1, that they could launch with something that significantly outperforms two consoles that launched many years before. Of course, it also could just be on par with what is currently on the market (Or perhaps a bit weaker, even). We're just talking about realistic possibilities after all.

It isn't rocket science. Technology marches on, it isn't static like you seem to think it is. It doesn't cost a fortune to outperform current platforms in 2011, so a system more powerful than the current generation competition doesn't seem to necessarily contradict with Nintendo's philosophy that pure horsepower isn't critical in the home console space.

[duffmanth]

I don't think there will be any new consoles released this year. As for next year, I'm pretty confident that Nintendo will be launching a new console that will have long over due HD capabilities. They're gonna have to release something that can compete with the 360 and PS3 in terms of technology, and something that can also compete with MS and Sony's next systems. Although the Wii is still doing OK, it's been on a slow decline for a while now, there's next to no AAA games coming for it, and they can't rely on motion sensing alone to sell their consoles anymore.

[duffmanth]

Here's the thing though, I honestly think that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could get all the hardcore early adopters jumping on their bandwagon, and that first movers advantage could be really important. I think the timing is absolutely perfect for Nintendo, especially if they shock the gaming world at e3 and announce a new console for this November. I doubt that will happen, instead we'll likely need to wait another year, but regardless, Nintendo is going to launch by themselves. Microsoft will stick with the 360 for 1 more year, and Sony will most likely stick with the PS3 for a couple more years.

This leaves a HUGE opening for a new system for the early adopter console type gamer. The console gamer that just doesn't want to mess with the whole PC thing, just wants a straight up gaming console, but is seriously jonesing for some new hardware. Remember the launch of the Xbox 360 in November of 2005? We really didn't need Next-Gen hardware at that time, but the 360 came out anyways, and was pretty much a runaway success. The same thing could happen with a new Nintendo console.

Nintendo isn't going to be all about high-end technology with this console, but it doesn't really matter. By default, it will be years more advanced than the 360 and PS3 at least in the areas of Ram and GPU tech. Which game developer right now, has been the most vocal about wanting new gaming consoles? Epic Games. Iwata needs to get Mark Rein on the phone immediately and hand deliver Epic a development kit. Get them trying to port Unreal 4 to the Wii 2. All they need is one absolute showcase game, like the original Gears of War for 360, and I guarantee you the console graphic whores will be all over it.

If Nintendo were to release a new console this year, I don't think it would be "years" ahead of the competition? I think it's almost certain that MS will have a new console out by late 2012, so Nintendo would only have a year on it assuming they were to release something this year? I also think the next Nintendo console will produce cutting edge visuals, they can't come out with another console that has Gamecube/Wii graphics.

[WanganRunner]

Even if Nintendo did come out with a console that was significantly more powerful than 360 and PS3, and even if they did manage to get some killer 3rd party games on it, all those graphics whore kiddies would just say, "I'm waiting for the PS4 or next Xbox."

It's exactly what happened to the Dreamcast, and we saw what that did to Sega. Nintendo knows it. They're not stupid. They're going to build their next system as absolutely cheaply as they can get away with. For better or for worse.

^^
This is absolutely right. Nintendo is not going to willingly pull a Dreamcast.

[WCP]

If Nintendo were to release a new console this year, I don't think it would be "years" ahead of the competition? I think it's almost certain that MS will have a new console out by late 2012, so Nintendo would only have a year on it assuming they were to release something this year? .

Well, it's all speculation at this point, but here is my theory:


Microsoft isn't in any rush to bring out a new console. While, technically, they are in 2nd or 3rd place in this console war, depending on what you believe, they still command more of the Top 10 Games Sold list every single month. Things are going well for them right now. This is when they are starting to actually make a little bit of money on the whole Xbox thing. So, I just don't think there is a ton of incentive for them to "rock the boat" so to speak, with a new console introduction anytime soon.

However.... They aren't going to just sit idly by, and watch Nintendo (or Sony), screw things up for them. If Nintendo were to launch a Wii 2 this year, and it was a well designed machine with decent power, I think MS would be forced to fast track their next system for November 2012.

Still, I think a Wii 2 this year is unlikely. As much as things are starting to slip a little bit for Nintendo in terms of their stock price and whatnot, I just don't think they will be so pro-active as to already have a console ready to go for this November. I think 2012 is pretty much a done deal for them.

So, the question then goes to this... Will November 2012 see both a Wii 2 and a Xbox 720 (for lack of a better moniker) ? I doubt it. I think Nintendo will have 1 year all to themselves, regardless if it's this year or next. Now, if Nintendo somehow doesn't release a Wii 2 by 2012, then all bets are off. We will definitely see multiple new console launches in 2013 if we haven't seen anything prior.

[retro junkie]

I think that Nintendo will focus on the 3DS this year and into 2012. And it is time for Nintendo to go through one of their cycles with the Wii. Offer different color Wiis, various packages which would include multiple Wiimotes, game pack-ins, and the biggest incentive of all, a price cut. I think probably the next step is a Wii for $159.00. Maybe a big game release or two. This will clean out that excess inventory and stall for time. I say no new Wii until at least 2013, if then. I think you'll see Sony or Microsoft make the first move. Nintendo doesn't care about the other guys. They have shown that with the Wii. The Wii has a totally different end user than the other two systems.

But I think that a 10 year cycle for hardware would be good for a change. Developers would have to dig deep into their creative juices to make a game that would pull in the gamer and sell systems. A game that would have to center around the gameplay. A 10 year cycle gives us time to get over the graphics thrill bubble.

But I think that is a bit unrealistic in thinking that they will stick to a 10 year cycle. It is all about selling game systems. When they stop selling, then we hype it up and introduce the new.

[The 1 2 P]

While I do think Nintendo will be the first to launch a new system I don't think it will be much more powerful then the current 360 or PS3. But this of course would be by choice. Nintendo knows that they need to keep being innovative if they want to stay ahead of the other two companies.

As for graphics, I would rather have a great story over great graphics and Nintendo would rather make fun games instead of realistic graphics so I doubt their next system will be very alluring to...what did you call them, graphic whores? The Wii successor will still get scooped up by early adopters and Nintendo fanboys the same way the the next Sony and Microsoft system will get picked up(by early adopters). But I don't think either company is in a rush and Nintendo certainly doesn't want to lose any momentum for the 3DS by announcing a new console too soon. Thats what happened when the 3DS was announced before the XL was launched.

[WCP]

I say no new Wii until at least 2013, if then. I think you'll see Sony or Microsoft make the first move. .

Nintendo is a publicly traded company. They have stock.

Here is a chart of their stock for the last 5 years, since the intro of the Wii:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=N...e=off;source=;


You can see by the chart that Nintendo was on top of the world in fall of 2007. Nintendo's stock also did amazingly well in May, June and July of 2008. Early 2009 was pretty good, but after that Nintendo's stock price has taken a real hit, and has been quite flat. It's currently at a 52 week low of $30.10. It's highest point in the last year has been $42.95. Nintendo hit a high of $76.87 in late October of 1997.

The 3DS is selling.......... OK. Probably below Nintendo's expectations. The only way Nintendo is going to get a jump in the stock price is if the 3DS starts to really get on fire, or if the Wii all of a sudden has a late burst of sales, or some amazing new game comes out that sells in the bucketloads. Right now, things aren't looking so hot for Nintendo. I don't think we'll see a system this year, but they are going to have to do something in the near term to save their stock price (in regards to stock price). I'm expecting a pretty legit price drop for the Wii at e3, which will spike sales a little bit, but I think the Wii had it's last big Xmas last year. This xmas will be disappointing, and it will be obvious to Nintendo to bring out a new console in 2012. IMHO

[Press_Start]

You can see by the chart that Nintendo was on top of the world in fall of 2007. Nintendo's stock also did amazingly well in May, June and July of 2008. Early 2009 was pretty good, but after that Nintendo's stock price has taken a real hit, and has been quite flat. It's currently at a 52 week low of $30.10. It's highest point in the last year has been $42.95. Nintendo hit a high of $76.87 in late October of 1997.

Well, facing the aftermath of an earthquake, bracing for tsunami, nuclear fallout, emotion scarring, making breakfast, doing the laundry, fix the car, mow the lawn, put on my makeup, get my nails done, neutur the dog.....WHAT F*&KIN' MORE DO YA WANT FROM ME?!

Signed,
Nintendo.

The 3DS is selling.......... OK. Probably below Nintendo's expectations. The only way Nintendo is going to get a jump in the stock price is if the 3DS starts to really get on fire, or if the Wii all of a sudden has a late burst of sales, or some amazing new game comes out that sells in the bucketloads. Right now, things aren't looking so hot for Nintendo. I don't think we'll see a system this year, but they are going to have to do something in the near term to save their stock price (in regards to stock price). I'm expecting a pretty legit price drop for the Wii at e3, which will spike sales a little bit, but I think the Wii had it's last big Xmas last year. This xmas will be disappointing, and it will be obvious to Nintendo to bring out a new console in 2012. IMHO

You're not seeing the bigger picture. Nintendo's learning their lesson from the Wii. The shortage of the hot-selling product cause them to miss out a good chunk of potential revenue for 2 holiday seasons despite the fame. This time they're snowballing for a massive 3DS Xmas money parade come winter 2011 with a bigger saturation for better returns than the Wii....in theory. I bet ya this year at E3 they'll be a whole slew of major 3DS titles plus the slight mention of their next home console. (I'm hoping they call it Super Wii.)

As for the topic at hand, if there's anything we learned in the last decade already, it's:

Better graphics =/= Better Games

I'm sorry but it's true. Look at Sonic, Suikoden, Banjo-Kazooie, Crash Bandicoot, Megaman X7, Vectorman.....hell Final Fantasy! The stampeding elephant that shreds, stomps, and kills the "graphix myth" a thousand lifetimes over. Sony and MS bit off more processing power than they could chew that they broke away from the 5-year cycle cause costs for a next-gen would be astronomical to put it conservatively, not to mention price hikes for games to compensate in a grueling economy were in now.

Nintendo learned their lesson. They know a game's visuals isn't worth Yoshi eggs without a solid, fun and innovative gameplay premise to support it. They pride themselves on that mantra and that's why they've remained ahead of the pack for multiple generations. Whatever the GPU power of the next console, be it stronger or weaker to PS360, it's definitely not the first thing on Iwata's and Miyamoto's mind

[fishsandwich]

I'm sorry but it's true. Look at Sonic, Suikoden, Banjo-Kazooie, Crash Bandicoot, Megaman X7, Vectorman.....hell Final Fantasy! The stampeding elephant that shreds, stomps, and kills the "graphix myth" a thousand lifetimes over.

Wait... what?


Please explain these particular games in regards to context.



?

[WanganRunner]

Thought this was interesting.

[kupomogli]

They pride themselves on that mantra and that's why they've remained ahead of the pack for multiple generations.

Remaining ahead of the pack means first. They certainly weren't first with both the N64 and Gamecube.

If the Wii 2 is released with bc with the Wii and Gamecube, then I'll gladly pick it up sooner rather than later. Hopefully Wii games are still online compatible as well.