Deciding a video game is rare. How do we know (decide) it's rare?

[treismac]

How does the video game collecting market discover or decide that a game is rare enough for it to fetch a premium? A game such as Tengen's Tetris that was recalled or a prototype like Bio Force Ape obviously never had the chance to inundate the gaming scene like Super Mario Bros. 3, but what about a game like Pocky & Rocky 2? It just went for $46.00 plus $4 in shipping on eBay. How is this game deemed rare enough to fetch that price? Do people just figure that there aren't enough of them up for bid on eBay, so they must be rare? Is there a way to look at the sales of video games from yesteryear to put some cold, hard, quantifiable facts behind declaring a game "rare"?

Also, does anyone have a spare Pocky & Rocky 2 they want to donate?

[Vectorman0]

I would start by saying that value should be ignored for this discussion. Certainly rarity has a role in determining value, but demand is a more important factor. Values change over time, while rarity generally does not.

[portnoyd]

I would start by saying that value should be ignored for this discussion. Certainly rarity has a role in determining value, but demand is a more important factor. Values change over time, while rarity generally does not.

This is correct. As Vec said, demand fuels value, not rarity. However, rarity can boost demand but not always.

The problem with determining true rarity is you really can't. The logical way to do it is to take production runs (which no one has) and compare all the games against each other, factoring in additional factors with specific weights (such as unlicensed, which will have lower distribution/production than licensed games). Make cutoffs on a scale of 1 to 10 and there you go.

Since no one has that information, it all has to be pieced together. And that's where perception of rarity comes in. Individuals in years past make a determination about a game, no matter how informed or uninformed it can be, and tie that to a game. And sometimes, it sticks and everyone else down the line accepts it as law and that's when the game becomes perceived as rare, or not and then it possibly becomes perceived as valuable.

Also, the perception of value can inadvertently fuel the perception of rarity. This is one reason why eBay makes for a tricky tool for determining rarity. People have trouble making the distinction between value and rarity as many see them as one and the same. This greatly skews things.

Here an example to show what I'm trying to say:

For the waning years of Funcoland's NES days, the company kept Bubble Bobble 2 at a price of $30 literally until it stopped stocking it. This was in the top 5 of most expensive prices for the NES. The price never came down and held steady on eBay and collector circles until the semi-recent spike to $100 loose. Now, you will say people clamoring how rare the game is. And it's all because of that Funco price.

Do a search for Bubble Bobble 2 on eBay. You will always find copies for sale at any given time. And they sell! How is a game deemed so rare, on eBay that much? Also factor in there has to be a LOT of copies to always maintain that many for sale at any given time in that they are constantly cycling off. How is that rare? VGPC says that at least one copy sells per week. To sustain that, there needs to a lot of copies coming up for sale.

The truth is Bubble Bobble 2 is highly uncommon/borderline rare but the perception of its rarity was boosted by that high price because so many people equate value to rarity.

Let's contrast that with a game like Swamp Thing. This game has about the same available copies as Bubble Bobble 2 but sells less often (VGPC says 2 per month) and goes for about 10% of BB2. However, they are exceptionally close in rarity, going as far to say that Swamp Thing is a 7 to a BB2's 6. Why doesn't Swamp Thing go for as much? Swamp Thing has always been flat in value because no one has ever latched onto it as rare. However, judging by a complete copy going for $56 recently, people may be coming around to its rarity.

Now in these examples, I made calls on BB2 and Swamp Thing as what we would rate here as a 6 and 7 out of 10. How did I make that decision? A few factors that play into it. While it's not the absolute, I still try to look at it as logically as possible and removing value from the discussion.

Both games were late releases. With publishers switching focus to the SNES/Genesis, NES was getting phased out so it makes logical sense to make less than they had before. This is the key driver of determining rarity in this case - late releases equals less copies.

Now why Swamp Thing over Bubble Bobble 2? Bubble Bobble 2 is a sequel to a popular older NES game. Swamp Thing is an obscure comic license. What would sell more back in the day? More than likely, the sequel. By that logic, the publisher would make more copies of the sequel because they expect to sell more since it latched onto a popular first game.

And this is what we have to go on. Anyone who says 'Oh, they only made 10,000 copies of this game' in most cases is full of shit. They don't really know; they are either full of shit or repeating something they heard from someone else who was full of shit. People being full of shit is the biggest problem with getting close to actual rarity as opposed to perceived rarity. Don't get me started on Flintstones 2 being rental only. It won't end well.

In the OP's situation, Pocky & Rocky 2 has some factors going for it that fuel the value. One, it's a sequel to a marginally popular game. Two, it's by Natsume which makes all the JPN fans squirt their pantsu. Three, it's one of the spiritual precursors to Heavenly Guardian for current systems. This is likely what's making it cost more now. As far as it's rarity, it's hard to say. It's definitely at least uncommon (Natsume and all) but truly rare? Not completely sure. When DNG and I did the SNES guide for DP, we marked it as a 6. I'd stand by that now.

[Richter Belmount]

Theres a committee who decides at the top made of higher ups.

[Sunnyvale]

From my understanding, the rarity of a game is determined by monitoring sales on Ebay and Amazon, and comparing the total number of each game listed with each other. But I don't know for sure, just what I've heard/read.

[Cornelius]

Well, take a game like Flintstones 2, which was rental only, and you get the makings of a rare game.

...

[Parodius Duh!]

Well, take a game like Flintstones 2, which was rental only, and you get the makings of a rare game.

People need to stop saying this, its only speculated that it was rental only, not confirmed. I think it was distributed to both local toy stores and video shops, but the bigger companies were not interested in carrying it due to the NES dying out. I swear my cousin bought it from our local Toy Liquidators, and not a video rental store.
John Madden 1993 championship Special edition or whatever was also a rental exclusive and that is not worth dick. Just because something is "Exclusive" does not make it rare by any means.


Id say given the mad years its been, the internet, etc. theres plenty of information gathered that determines what classic games are rare or not.

A Game like Bio Force Ape is obviously rare cause it was unreleased prototype, only one copy probably exists. A game like Pocky and Rocky 2 was produced in limited quantity, did we know this in say 1999? Nope. did we know this by 2004, Yup, cause there has been enough recorded sales to determine how rare it is.


Its just like any other collectible. I was looking at an action figure guide from 1997 and packaged vintage Star Wars Boba Fett- 1997 value: 800.00......2011 value: like 10 fucking grand.


My point is it takes time to determine rarity, and chances are something that is rare now, may be even rarer ten years from now, and be worth tenfold.


Obviously demand plays a big role too...Earthbound is far from being rare, even uncommon for that matter, but everyone wants a copy.

[MachineGex]

I would think, someone here at DP would remember buying or at least seeing a sealed copy of Flintstones 2 for sale if it was released in a retail store. Anyone???

[Balloon Fight]

I would think, someone here at DP would remember buying or at least seeing a sealed copy of Flintstones 2 for sale if it was released in a retail store. Anyone???

This is my thought process as well. I have no idea if F2 was rental only, it probably wasn't, but I've always been curious if ANYONE here ever saw a F2 for sale at a retail shop.

Also, portnoyds post is 100% correct.

[Parodius Duh!]

I would think, someone here at DP would remember buying or at least seeing a sealed copy of Flintstones 2 for sale if it was released in a retail store. Anyone???

Not necessarily especially since it was such a short production run to begin with. From what I gather these were most likely sold at Ma and Pa style Toy and Video Shops, in select locations. Almost as if it were test marketed but not. I think just very few people ordered the game for their shop, seeing as how NES was barely hanging on at that point, nobody wanted to risk purchasing this game at full price then having to sell them next to SNES and Genesis games, at the same price. It just wouldnt be worth it to them. The whole Rental exclusive idea more than likely comes from the fact that it would make more sense to rent these out then to flat out sell a new copy, therefore it was probably more abundant in video rental shops than in retail stores. People probably think its a rental exclusive cause thats probably where the game was spotted more often than not. Why do you think theres still sealed/unopened copies? probably cause they came from a retail store, seeing as how most video shops did not sell games new/sealed, only their old used up rental shit thats covered in stickers, etc.

Anyway, who has seen these for sale new/sealed in a video rental shop before back in the day? probably just as many people that have seen them in Retail stores.


And now that this topic is off track.......

[Cornelius]

Don't get me started on Flintstones 2 being rental only. It won't end well.

Well, take a game like Flintstones 2, which was rental only, and you get the makings of a rare game.

...

I thought I was being overly obvious in my joking, but I guess not.

[crazyjackcsa]

You think it's hard to determine rarity and the correlation to price in Video games, try dealing in cars!

For example, In 1971 540,000 Chevelles were built. Value today: About 12k
In 1971 33,000 Buick Rivieras were built. Value today, about 8k.

Seems rarity has little to do with value, it's more about how collectible the item is, or thought to be.

And in the end, the market decides, and sometimes valuations end up out of wack.

The internet changed everything too. In my area , I never, ever, ever see anything Pre PS1 in the wild. Ever. In the olden times, that would have meant all of that older stuff was "RARE" but it isn't. Or at least it doesn't seem to be.

[portnoyd]

I thought I was being overly obvious in my joking, but I guess not.

If it's any consolation, I got it. :P