Why Microsoft's Keeping the Next Xbox Under Wraps [Slashdot]

[DP ServBot]

donniebaseball23 writes "Microsoft recently confirmed that it's not going to be talking at all about its next Xbox, codenamed Durango, at this year's E3, instead keeping the focus on Xbox 360. Forbes columnist Chris Morris explains that Microsoft likely doesn't have games to show for the system yet — and why should they take the focus off Xbox 360, which currently has a lot of momentum? Ultimately, though, the decision not to show the next system 'could have a ripple effect on the rest of the industry,' he says. And by pushing Durango's unveiling back a year, 'Microsoft could find itself going head to head with Sony in a battle of features, even if the machines don't hit shelves at the same time.'"The latest rumor is that an ARM-based Xbox 'lite' is planned for 2013, with a true successor to the 360 coming some time after that.

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[Griking]

Also why tip your hand to the competition when you don't have to yet?

[Leo_A]

Also why tip your hand to the competition when you don't have to yet?

I imagine Nintendo and Sony are well versed with the goings on over at Microsoft. These companies are too large and involve too many partners for there to be much difficulty with the competition keeping informed.

They're not going to learn various details at E3 and such like the general public would.

[RCM]

I imagine Nintendo and Sony are well versed with the goings on over at Microsoft. These companies are too large and involve too many partners for there to be much difficulty with the competition keeping informed.

They're not going to learn various details at E3 and such like the general public would.

You're correct to an extent, but the competition doesn't know everything. Anyway, M$ owes fans of the original Xbox a few more years. How many years did they really support it, four? I don't see anyone calling for new consoles or handhelds in general, but they're going to force it on us anyway. I'd be perfectly happy with Xbox 360 for another five or six years, at least. It's truly a fantastic system with a great service.

[NayusDante]

I keep getting the feeling that Durango is more of a general-purpose entertainment box than a game console. Microsoft is finally getting to the point where they're not too fragmented to pull it off. Before, you had a lot of redundant functionality for media between different products, but the "three screens" mantra they've adopted for the Windows 8 platform implies that the next Xbox will really mesh with your desktop and mobile for everything you do.

If you read The Road Ahead (1995), you'll see that Bill was thinking about the unifying "Microsoft cablebox" for a long time. Gaming has been a vehicle to get them where they need to be to actually deploy it. With that in mind, I think they can stand to wait a few more years. The 360 sells fine right now, and the network infrastructure isn't there yet to properly support that kind of unifying platform. I'm guessing that it'll be designed around cloud storage and persistent connections, but we're still struggling to get broadband rolled out to every area.

Whenever Microsoft does announce their new console, I'm guessing that it'll be after the PS2 is finally retired. It's embarrassing enough that the PS2 still outsells the 360 in the weekly Japanese sales charts.

[Leo_A]

I imagine the 360 is viewed as a success in Japan. Has sold a lot more than the original Xbox did, has gotten a lot of support from Japanese developers and publishers, has had a decent number of exclusives in popular Japanese series (Such as several Namco releases like Ace Combat a few years ago), several popular Western games have been modest successes over there like Halo, and many niche Japanese games are 360 exclusives.

The horizontal and vertical shooter is almost the exclusive domain of the Xbox 360 this generation for instance.

[j_factor]

What exactly is an ARM-based Xbox Lite? You can't just change to a completely different CPU unless you're making a new console. And if they're making a new console, but claiming it's "not the true successor" to Xbox 360, that sounds an awful lot like the line about DS not being GBA's successor.

[Rob2600]

I imagine the 360 is viewed as a success in Japan. Has sold a lot more than the original Xbox did

According to Wikipedia:

Xbox: 2 million units sold in Japan

Xbox 360: 1.5 million units sold in Japan

[Griking]

According to Wikipedia:

Xbox: 2 million units sold in Japan

Xbox 360: 1.5 million units sold in Japan

I reference Wikipedia a lot myself but I might question how often a figure like that would be updated.

[Rob2600]

According to Wikipedia:

Xbox: 2 million units sold in Japan

Xbox 360: 1.5 million units sold in Japan

I reference Wikipedia a lot myself but I might question how often a figure like that would be updated.

True. The Xbox 360 data was last updated nine months ago on June 17, 2011. Still, how many Japanese people bought a 360 in the last nine months? There are roughly 1,400 sold every week in Japan, so that would mean roughly 55,000...added to 1.5 million brings the Japanese 360 total up to roughly 1.6 million.

That's still 2 million Xbox consoles in Japan vs. 1.6 million 360 consoles. Leo A claimed "I imagine the 360 is viewed as a success in Japan. Has sold a lot more than the original Xbox did". But based on the data that's out there, that's simply not true. Unless I'm missing something...?

[Leo_A]

Looks like I'm wrong.

Isn't the first time and it won't be the last time. But I think much of the rest of my statement is right. The most important component (Japan is a fairly small market) is the support of Japanese developers and publishers. And Microsoft has clearly made large strides in that area this generation. So even if still a sales failure, I think it's been a victory for Microsoft in Japan this generation.

I suspect it won't be long before MGS and Kingdom Hearts, among some of the last big hold outs from large independent Japanese publishers, start to be released on Microsoft consoles simultaneously with Sony consoles.

[RCM]

I was under the impression that M$ sold 500K original Xbox systems in Japan vs. 1.5 million for 360. I've never been a huge fan of VG Chartz, but they seem to confirm it: http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/. I'm in agreement with Leo on this one.

[Rob2600]

I was under the impression that M$ sold 500K original Xbox systems in Japan vs. 1.5 million for 360. I've never been a huge fan of VG Chartz, but they seem to confirm it: http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/. I'm in agreement with Leo on this one.

Wikipedia used Microsoft's own xbox.com as the source for the "2 million in Japan" figure (published May 10, 2006). Of course, that particular page is offline and Archive.org's archive of it isn't loading...

Either way, Leo A is correct about Microsoft making progress with Japanese developers.

[RCM]

Wikipedia used Microsoft's own xbox.com as the source for the "2 million in Japan" figure (published May 10, 2006). Of course, that particular page is offline and Archive.org's archive of it isn't loading...

Either way, Leo A is correct about Microsoft making progress with Japanese developers.

I'm guessing that link, which unfortunately doesn't work, is a combination of Japan and other territories (excluding North America and European territories). This link speaks to that assumption: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Xbox.

[Rob2600]

I'm guessing that link, which unfortunately doesn't work, is a combination of Japan and other territories (excluding North America and European territories). This link speaks to that assumption: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Xbox.

Ah yes, it specifies "Japan/Asia Pacific (including Australia)" for combined sales of 2 million. I stand corrected. Thanks for that link.

Still, I wouldn't call 1.5 million vs. 0.5 million a tremendous victory. But again, Leo A was right about Microsoft making progress with Japanese developers.