My $.02 on the retro game pricing insanity

[Flam]

In a nutshell, the prices on retro games have hit their peak and will in fact decline over the next ten years.

After my search for Battletoads and Double Dragon and my resent viewings of prices for Little Samson, I’ve come to the conclusion that these games are ridiculously inflated and will start to come down, not soon, but eventually. If you think about it, this is why prices are on the rise; you have a bunch of people in their mid 30’s to mid 40’s (like me, I was born in’78) whose prime of their childhood was spend during the golden age of gaming. These people (now middle age) are starting to go through somewhat of a midlife crisis and what to reclaim a part of their youth. This is what is pushing the recent influx of buyers in the market. I bet in the next ten years, once these newer collectors tire of the hobby and leave the market, prices will drop. Basically this is a fad right now. Good look trying to sell that Battletoads and Double Dragon for $45 ten years from now (I also this includes everything from loose carts to CIB’s). Again, I’m not saying this will be a bubble burst, but we will see prices hit a peak, level out, then decline.

Collecting retro games is not like comics, baseball cards, etc. Those hobbies cut across generations. Retro games, I feel, really only hold value to those who grew up in that particular time period. I doubt that there are many in their 20’s who are serious retro collectors and would want to shell out big cash for the rarer games. I just don’t see a youth driven market for retro games.

I know this is a regurgitated topic, but I was just thinking about this the other day. Oh, and as far as this VGA stuff; that is definitely laughable. Those guys are a bunch of hucksters.

[bb_hood]

I’ve come to the conclusion that these games are ridiculously inflated and will start to come down, not soon, but eventually.

I agree with most of what you say, I think prices are very inflated on many older games. I do think VG collecting HAS become a sort of fad the way some people go after video games, and Im mainly reffering to resellers who check CL every 5 seconds. Everything has become 'rare' when in fact very few games are actual rarities based on production.

I think the main cause of price increases over the last 3-5 years is due to noob collectors starting out who are not afraid to drop 30$ on Mario Kart, 50$ on Turtles in Time, 70$ on Super Metroid, and 300$ on earthbound because they THINK that these are rare. There is alot of hype and when people see others foolishly dropping wads of cash on games that are essentially common games like mario kart and zeldas, other buyers just assume this is the going rate. More and more people have become retro collectors over the last few years, and the demand for older nes/snes/n64 games has increased alot. As far as prices dropping, well we will just have to wait and see. I think boxed/complete games will always be sought after by collectors so I dont think they will really go down and I will guess they will NEVER be worthless. Loose carts on the other hand are soo common for Nes/snes/ and especially N64. I think when more and more people start to use flash carts to play games many people with collections of loose games wont think twice about selling their carts.

[vrikkgwj]

I guess I'm glad I sold my spare copy of Earthbound last week then, eh?

[Final Boss]

I hope for two things: that you're right about the fad slowing down eventually and when it happens, individuals don't get piggy with how many copies they own of rarities.

I mean..why do we do this, anyway? Those who do it with profits in mind: you have chosen a fairly narrow customer base. Even hardcore collectors have their ultimate pain point of what they will pay. To collectors, these hunks of plastic are treasures. But at its core, it's about the sentimental value and - for me at least - also about preserving pieces of history. Games are pretty much worthless as trading goods in the "actual" market. All I can for as advice is: don't pay too much, no matter how rare it is. If you do, you feed this cycle.

On another note, a savvy profit-driven collector would already set his sights on the future and start buying stuff that will be the next equal of retro games. Hoard games and you might end up with less profit and more space taken by something you don't actually care about.

[Xander]

There is alot of hype and when people see others foolishly dropping wads of cash on games that are essentially common games like mario kart and zeldas, other buyers just assume this is the going rate.

This is an interesting take on the topic hood. But here is another perspective on it.

I've been serious about collecting retro games for about 10 years now. I'm not rich by any stretch of the imagination but I value my time immensely. What it means is that I prefer to pay the going ebay BIN price for most of the games I buy, simply because I don't want to spend the time to try to hunt it in the wild.

I've been a member on DP for a little over 6 years now, and I'm part of other similar communities of game collector. A lot of what I hear is about the great finds and the deal hunting and how every games sold on ebay has inflated prices. I've tried that. I made a map of all possible place I might find used video games at non-ebay (or worse) pricing in my city. I've tried them all, I've tried going garage sales hunting. I also tried craigslist, kijiji and the local ads. Sure I've made a few not-so-bad deals but in the end my conclusion is that it was not worth it. The deals are very rare and the amount of time I spend hunting for them means I have less time to play my games, spend time with the GF, working or learning new things.

I am probably contributing to what you guys consider inflated prices. But what are my alternatives? A good example is I bought a loose copy of Chrono Trigger for 80$ last month. This is a game I've purposely held off purchasing for a few years simply because I was trying to find it for cheaper in the wild. It never happened. And during this time I was "suffering" because I wanted to play it, but I couldn't. If 80$ is what it takes and there is no alternative, yeah I'll shell the cash and contribute to the inflation. Same deal with Suikoden II, I want it, I can't find it. I'll probably pay the 165$ required soon.

[spman]

The problem is that it's a limited market with a high amount of scarcity dominated by sellers who behave irrationally. The reason the prices are so high isn't becuase its what people want to pay, it's because it's what people want to sell them for. The guy selling his games at inflated BIN prices on eBay has very little incentive to lower his prices, even if he doesn't sell as many games, when he does find a rube who doesn't know better and pays him what he wants, the profit is high enough tbat it doesn't matter that he doesn't sell very many.

[bb_hood]

The problem is that it's a limited market with a high amount of scarcity dominated by sellers who behave irrationally. The reason the prices are so high isn't becuase its what people want to pay, it's because it's what people want to sell them for. The guy selling his games at inflated BIN prices on eBay has very little incentive to lower his prices, even if he doesn't sell as many games, when he does find a rube who doesn't know better and pays him what he wants, the profit is high enough tbat it doesn't matter that he doesn't sell very many.

People can post whatever BIN prices they want, they dont prove anything nor is anyone forced to buy games at these prices. I could put a copy of mario/duck hunt up on ebay with a BIN of 100$ and I would get nothing but laughed at. If someone wants to pay a little more for something thats their choice. If you look many expensive games on ebay will start at 0.01 and be bid up to expensive amounts, which suggests that alot of people are just willing to pay.

[Flam]

I saw BIN prices for Battletoads & Double Dragon for like $75, I got mine BIN for $29.99 (which was just posted and I snatched up quickly, granted the condition might be a little worse than the others, but I really don't care as I just want to play the game). But the bids are topping off at around $44. I just don't see why people believe someone is going to pay $75 when they can just as easily bid and get one for around $45

[bb_hood]

I am probably contributing to what you guys consider inflated prices. But what are my alternatives? A good example is I bought a loose copy of Chrono Trigger for 80$ last month. This is a game I've purposely held off purchasing for a few years simply because I was trying to find it for cheaper in the wild. It never happened. And during this time I was "suffering" because I wanted to play it, but I couldn't. If 80$ is what it takes and there is no alternative, yeah I'll shell the cash and contribute to the inflation. Same deal with Suikoden II, I want it, I can't find it. I'll probably pay the 165$ required soon.

This isnt exactly what Im getting at. First of all, Chrono has always been sought after and is fairly hard to find because of that. Its not the rarest game but alot of people want it and its pretty much always been around the 40-60$ mark, so paying a little more for a copy to play is reasonable. It is the type of game where you could look for years and never find it at the flea market or thrift shop.

What I think is happening is when people start collecting they have no clue when it comes to the actual rarities, and they see what they sell for online and just accept it. Some games like Contra, Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario 3, Donkey Kong Country will consistantly sell for 20-50 online when in fact these are all really common titles that should be priced 5-15$ each. These games, although popular, are actually really easy to find (especially in lots).

So its kinda like I could justify paying 80$ for chrono, but paying 30$ for Contra would be a foolish move.


Basically I think that except for a very small number of titles there is way more than enough copies of games to go around (for players). With a little patience you can find games like Contra, Zelda, and Mario for little to nothing.
I also think that generally speaking finding a bunch of old video games is no hard task. Ive bought hunderds of lots locally and online in the past XX years. But, finding any one specific title CAN be a huge pain in the ass, and shopping online is often the only alternative when completing collectiong or collecting imports.

[needler420]

A lot of hardcore collectors look at their collections with a monetary value. Just like the 90's with comic books the ones that get too far ahead of themselves will wake up to a market crash one day.


Just like with comic books you have speculators with video games. Expect now some of those speculators are some 13 year old kids using their parents ebay account and inflating prices.



It's funny on the last episode of workaholics the guys are waiting for a new game to come out and going to the midnight release of it. In the office Blake cracks a joke and says that selling games on ebay can be very profitable and canmake them like 10,000 dollars.

[Flam]

Just like with comic books you have speculators with video games. Expect now some of those speculators are some 13 year old kids using their parents ebay account and inflating prices.

Is this really part of the problem?

[Atarileaf]

I've tried going garage sales hunting. I also tried craigslist, kijiji and the local ads. Sure I've made a few not-so-bad deals but in the end my conclusion is that it was not worth it. The deals are very rare and the amount of time I spend hunting for them means I have less time to play my games, spend time with the GF, working or learning new things.

I've mentioned this before and I wonder how many people take things like gas and wear and tear on their vehicle into consideration when they hunt. If you find a $20 game for $1 but you spent the whole day hunting and half a tank of gas, are you really ahead? Of course not.

There are those though who are so obsessed with the hunt itself that it becomes the end game, not the means to the end. However like many collectors, local finds are becoming few and far between making online shopping the easier, and yes, sometimes cheaper way to go.

[spman]

I've mentioned this before and I wonder how many people take things like gas and wear and tear on their vehicle into consideration when they hunt. If you find a $20 game for $1 but you spent the whole day hunting and half a tank of gas, are you really ahead? Of course not.

There are those though who are so obsessed with the hunt itself that it becomes the end game, not the means to the end. However like many collectors, local finds are becoming few and far between making online shopping the easier, and yes, sometimes cheaper way to go.

This is the truth, whenever you see people report their scores at Thrift Stores / Tag sales / Flea markets, all that ever gets reported is what was found, never the fact that they had to wake up a the crack of dawn on a saturday, spend $30 in gas, put 40 miles on their car, and spend 6 hours finding nothing until you find the one place where you bought a couple of commons for a buck a piece. The amount of time and effort it takes to find anything worth buying at tag sales absolutely negates whatever you might have found 99% of the time.

I HATE going to tag sales, every time you run into people parking their car in the middle of the road blocking the lane, people walking out into traffic, people pulling out without looking and comin close to causing car accidents, all for what? If I hit 10 tag sales in a day, I can guarantee you 9 out of 10 will be nothing but antiques or baby products, with the occaisional selection of junk books / CDs / VHS tapes. The 10th sale will be someone who thinks their junk PS2 or Gamecube games have still retained 90% of their original value.

[Cornelius]

I HATE going to tag sales, every time you run into people parking their car in the middle of the road blocking the lane, people walking out into traffic, people pulling out without looking and comin close to causing car accidents, all for what? If I hit 10 tag sales in a day, I can guarantee you 9 out of 10 will be nothing but antiques or baby products, with the occaisional selection of junk books / CDs / VHS tapes. The 10th sale will be someone who thinks their junk PS2 or Gamecube games have still retained 90% of their original value.

Well, see, this is your problem. I genuinely Like going to sales. And 9 times out of 10 I don't find video game stuff, but baby products are great for me (or were until recently). Kid stuff, now. And maybe one of those antiques will be a Featherlight machine my MiL wants, or the golf club my dad wants, or a garden tool I can use, or printer ink, or a Sony Sports walkman/CD player/headset, a Radiohead CD I don't have, the list is endless. I go to sales looking for video games, but I don't limit myself. Plus it is something fun to do with a pre-school kid on a nice day, plus despite generally being an introvert, I enjoy chatting with people I come across. If you go thrifting or garage sale-ing only looking for games, it will be very frustrating. And all that said, more and more people are looking up more and more of their sale items on ebay

As for the OP, I can definitely see prices dropping off for a lot of games, just as we saw with the VCS. But with that same example we've seen the truly rare games keep going up. And with something as iconic as the NES I think it will extend down a little ways to things like Bubble Bobble 2, Bonks, etc. I don't think those will ever go down. So so so wish I'd plunked down eBay prices on those 4 or 5 years ago.

And there seems to be a lot of debate over the Theories of Supply and Demand. I mean, they must be theories if we are debating them, right?

[Orion Pimpdaddy]

The rise in retro game prices is mostly a Nintendo phenomenon, hence the term "Ninflation." Sega games are rising too, but only gradually. If you dig through Video Game Price Charts there are many categories of retro games falling in price, such as PS1, PS2, and PS3. (Of course, it's understandable that PS3 is going down since they start at $60 and fall to $40 very quickly). This kind've proves Flam's point though, that games hit a peak, then decline.

But the trends for Nintendo and Sega may continue to climb for some time because 1) People are becoming more knowledgeable about the existence of older video games (even those in their 20's) and 2) Hunting for games is starting to become a "sport." Youtube videos are now springing up that show people shopping the retro stores; usually it's Nintendo games they hunt. It's kind've a Storage Wars type thing.

As I suggested in another thread, if you hate the current prices, try switching to another system to collect for. I'm currently collecting original X-box games and I'm able to find most of them for around $2 a piece. Yeah, they aren't quite retro, but man I'm sure getting a lot of entertainment value for $2.

[gameofyou]

It must be only certain systems, because I have bought a bunch of PC-Engine games over the last couple years, and they were dirt cheap.

[snes_collector]

I don't think this is gonna happen. If anything, stuff is only going to get harder to find due to all of these new collectors getting deeper into their collections. Games are getting harder to find in the wild, and when stuff is found, its the same games people already have. I think if you are waiting for prices to go down, you'll be waiting quite a long time.

[A.C. Sativa]

It must be only certain systems, because I have bought a bunch of PC-Engine games over the last couple years, and they were dirt cheap.

It's mainly an NES thing, at least in the U.S.

[Bojay1997]

I don't think this is gonna happen. If anything, stuff is only going to get harder to find due to all of these new collectors getting deeper into their collections. Games are getting harder to find in the wild, and when stuff is found, its the same games people already have. I think if you are waiting for prices to go down, you'll be waiting quite a long time.

Well, those of us who have been around long enough to remember the first round of price inflation on the Atari 2600 in the 90s and early 2000s would beg to differ. Collecting is always pretty cyclical, especially on what are essentially mass produced pop culture collectibles. Prices on many Atari and other classic games have fallen over the past few years as long-time collectors have downsized or new sources such as Venezuela and elsewhere have popped up. At the same time NES and SNES games have massively increased in price. At some point, you'll have a bubble burst on the NES and SNES stuff as collectors move on to other things as they age. Will NES and SNES games drop to pennies on the dollar? Probably not, but it's silly to think that with some games going for thousands in mint sealed condition now that those prices will continue to rise forever.

[needler420]

I don't think this is gonna happen. If anything, stuff is only going to get harder to find due to all of these new collectors getting deeper into their collections. Games are getting harder to find in the wild, and when stuff is found, its the same games people already have. I think if you are waiting for prices to go down, you'll be waiting quite a long time.

Video games aren't a commodity. It's way more volatile compared to markets based on fiat currency.

You have way too much $$$ in you're head when it comes to video games.