Video Game Pricing Algorithm? Can It Be Done?!

[goob47]

So, I was just searching eBay again for some video games and such I've been wanting, and I thought to myself: "Why does eBay have to be the standard for retro video game pricing? The only reason these games are priced like this (most of them at least) is because this is what people want to get for them! Then, everyone who wants to sell their copies sees this, and prices their games accordingly!" I saw a copy of Donkey Kong for the Commodore 64 trying to get sold for 59.99 the other day. I wouldn't be surprised if all of a sudden, ONE PERSON buys one for whatever reason, and all of a sudden, that game is worth sixty bucks.

So this is my thought. Why don't we come up with a mathematical equation based on the amount originally sold of the game, the amount of time it was produced for, etc!? Then maybe games like Contra might be sold at prices according to the amount out there! Think about it: there are thousands and thousands of Mario Duck Hunt copies, and they're sold very reasonably because of that. And I know there might be significantly less Contra games out there, but still. It makes sense.

Please contribute, and perhaps we'll be one step closer to finding out the best way to price retro games.

~goob47

[o.pwuaioc]

Not enough data and you can't quantify potential demand.

[goob47]

Indeed... Well, it was worth a shot.

[8-Bit Archeology]

The only way I think someone would be able to get this data, is if the companies that actually produced carts and disks had a decent record keeping. AND did not destroy all info when a lot of them went out of business. The sad thing is there numbers would still be off for most mass produced titles. The only games that have a good record of production are the ones that had extremely low production. Not only is it easier to count low numbers but If someone wanted to produce a starter game or small production, it would have been tasking to get them set up. Just like having custom shirts or any other "specific to you items" made, they have to monitor the numbers produced instead of going through so many pallets worth of parts. There are so many games I would love to have the production numbers for so I could get a better idea of what my collection is comprised of.



Intelligent Qube -PS1- I have heard rumors of there only being 5000 copies made. [no real numbers as of yet]
Stop That Roach -GB- I have heard many mixed things about it being one of the more rare titles, yet no real info exists at all about it.
Misadventures of Tron Bonne -PS1- The price is what makes me wonder about production values.

plus tons more.

[JSoup]

The production companies would probably have skewed numbers as well, when you consider they'd only be marking down how many of what was produced. I don't know if this is a thing any more (I personally haven't seen it since around the Gamecube was released), but it used to be that not every store or chain would stock a particular game. If enough local stores or regional chains didn't stock a particular title, that title would be considered rare to the pre-internet-in-every-home days.

[badinsults]

The only reliable values would be from the companies themselves. Unless you are a shareholder, or the company wanted to brag, you probably would not have access to these numbers. Most values that people come up with are pure guesses and speculation based on current availability. Besides, the price of game is not always related to production numbers, and fun common games can be worth far more than crappy rare games. Plus the current rise in price on things like SFC games seem to defy logic, as games sell for many times more on Ebay than they would in Japan (i.e. you could buy the games on Yahoo Japan auctions through a deputy, and even with the shipping costs, it would be far less than Ebay).

[goob47]

I've bought some reasonably priced CIB games like Shin Megami Tensei for the SFC from an ebay seller called ikemengamer. He actually has a video game store in Japan, and sells on ebay as well.

[goob47]

Just thought of this: What if you could determine the markup of common but fun games based on the ratings they get? I know that we would have to make a much more advanced rating scale, but it's a possibility...

[SparTonberry]

Because rarity alone doesn't determine value.

I can still remember when the Digital Press page for Chrono Trigger (US SNES) gave an estimated value of $10 loose. But even then, it right away admitted that was based only on scarcity and one should've realistically expected to pay at lease $30 (or was it $50, beside the point) due to demand.

I can remember a few months ago when someone on ebay was selling large SNES cart lots, grouped solely by NintendoAge ratings (and of course massively overpriced). Such as a few grand for all R8 games loose. Laughed that I actually at least half of the 20 games in that lot. Mostly because they were just relatively low demand games like Zero the Kamikaze Squirrel and FireStriker that I picked up a few years earlier for a few bucks each.

[Opti]

Because price is based on supply and demand, not just the variables you mentioned. A game could have a huge supply (think of most of the 1st party nintentdo stuff) but as long as the demand is there it can be priced higher than a really rare game no one wants.

plus with ebay, craigslist, amazon, and all the info on the internet, the used game market is as liquid and competitive as ever, and if you want price on an old game to go down demand will have to go down.

You also have to realize if something is rare enough the seller can ALMOST set the price, but a buyer still has to be willing to pay for it, so yah if DK sells for 60 bucks then it is worth 60 bucks, to some people or maybe just one person. Now if there where 100 copies on ebay and all priced around what you consider to be the market price, which im guessing you believe to be less than $60, then guess what the 60 copy wouldnt sell.

[jonebone]

You can't price hype.

[goob47]

You can't price hype.

Indeed...

[spman]

90% of the price spikes are bullshit hype. Remember when Chase the Chuck Wagon was a $200+ 2600 game? All the console manufacturers, Sony, Sega, Nintendo etc. had minimum orders developers had to put in to get their games manufactured. That's not to say that a particular game didn't sell well, and had tens of thousands of copies sit unsold in a warehouse that were later destroyed or repurposed. The biggest problem with using eBay to gauge prices is that there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to any of them. Most games have a huge spread as far as final sale prices go. I've seen some NES games for example sell for as low as $150 to as high as $350 for the exact same game in the exact same condition. It's all about finding the right person or people who want your game that badly enough and get into a bidding war that drives the price up.

[JSoup]

You can't price hype.

Although I suppose you could predict it within a certain limit.

[EricThaDead]

What about some of the existing price guides? http://videogames.pricecharting.com/ or http://www.rarityguide.com/ for example. Are any of them reasonably accurate/up to date, or are they all just the best guesstimates of whomever runs those sites?

[SparTonberry]

Just going through some of the NES prices on the second link, and some of the valuable games early in the alphabet seem out of date (Chubby Cherub for $13, Contra Force for $40).

[MarioMania]

It seems like every year there some new collector wants in with NES, SNES, Genesis or most of the 8/16-Bit Systems

Causing a spike in price, I'm guessing the prices would never come down

[JSoup]

It seems like every year there some new collector wants in with NES, SNES, Genesis or most of the 8/16-Bit Systems

Causing a spike in price, I'm guessing the prices would never come down

Almost assuredly the prices aren't going to come down any time soon, if ever. At least not in a meaningful fashion. More collectors means more demand on an already limited supply. Toss in brute force collecting methods and the prices are being forced up even faster.

[segafan1989]

Toss in brute force collecting methods and the prices are being forced up even faster.

What the hell are "brute force" collecting methods? Is that like "i'm a collector and therefore I'm gonna take yo shit with a gun"

[JSoup]

What the hell are "brute force" collecting methods? Is that like "i'm a collector and therefore I'm gonna take yo shit with a gun"

Paying more than a collection is theoretically worth just so you can have it. In of itself, it's not an uncommon practice or really all that bad of a practice, but when it becomes common place it drives up prices. NintendoAge is one of the main sources of this and was where I learned about it.

Edit: A more specific way of explaining it would be to hold up a box with a collection of five books in it. The books and the box together are worth $100. Someone wants to just own it and says 'Look, I'll just give you $150 to ensure that I get the whole thing and so you don't feel bad about giving it up.' The box gets sold for $150. From that point on, the box keeps getting passed around, person to person, following the same pricing, which eventually leaves the box to be worth four or five times it's initial price in short order. The individual parts of the box (the box itself, each book in it) goes up in price as well.

That's a rather inelegant way to explain it, but I think it hits all the important parts.