2015 - the peak of Nintendo collecting?

[badinsults]

Alright, It is the new year, time to look at the state of collecting. I just wrote up an article regarding a new development that could be the beginning of the end of the Nintendo collecting bubble - mass produced bootlegs. The bootlegs of games like Hagane and Earthbound can be purchased in bulk at a fraction of the price of the real thing. Notably, these bootlegs are pretty easy to spot, since the carts have fake screws. The complicating factor is that it is trivial for someone to buy a bunch of these, throw the PCB in a real cart and print off a new label, and there, you have a pretty convincing copy. I discuss all this and its implications in the article!

Of course, this thread can be a bit more broad than that. For NES collecting, I think it will be hitting the upper limit of people who grew up in that key 1985-1992 time period that reach the point of having a combination of access to disposable income and nostalgia for their childhood. The SNES will not be far behind, with that key period being 1991 to 1996 (notably the rise in SNES prices started in 2011 - exactly 20 years after the SNES came out). With the rise of bootlegs that look fairly convincing, plus growing acceptance of flash carts and emulation boxes, I do not anticipate that the market for uncommon, but hardly Stadium Events-level rare games will continue to grow.

[JSoup]

The complicating factor is that it is trivial for someone to buy a bunch of these, throw the PCB in a real cart and print off a new label, and there, you have a pretty convincing copy.

In before the usual suspects charge in like a herd of Kool-Aid men with cries of "That's not possible, you can't fool us!"

[Niku-Sama]

well the long and short of it is I hope its the peak. because I could use some cheap games to add to my collection and I would prefer them to be legit.
theres no reason a SMB/DH cart should cost more than a buck or two

[davidbrit2]

In before the usual suspects charge in like a herd of Kool-Aid men with cries of "That's not possible, you can't fool us!"

Just get it VGA graded, then it's guaranteed to be legit.

[Aussie2B]

Nice article. Collecting for mainstream systems is only going to become more and more like how collecting MVS has been since the 90s, unfortunately, where you just have to accept the reality of opening up every game you buy to confirm that it's legit and occasionally having to return a bootleg and/or file a PayPal claim. Or like with GBA games, I don't care how convincing the outside looks, I always check the board for the Nintendo logo whenever I get a new one (although GBA is nice in that you can see the logo without actually opening a cart up).

As for NES, I've been getting the feeling for a while that we're on the cusp of a downturn. I just get a general sense that the collecting scene at large is losing interest, with a lot of gamers regarding it as "too old" to be worth caring about or playing. Heck, even with myself, I've barely bought any NES games in years (though part of that is less access and higher prices compared to 10+ years ago), and I've also barely been playing NES games in recent years. Maybe my own nostalgia has died down a little too. Whatever the case, I don't see a downturn doing much for the expensive rarities, but it'd be nice to see a drop in prices on the common stuff that has garnered higher prices purely because of demand and people's desire to play them. I expect this nostalgia bell curve to play out with every system, but it seems that a lot of collectors are resistant to accepting the pattern, even though the proof is right there with pre-NES systems already. Maybe it's a little cynical of me, but I think a lot of people are convinced that retro game prices will only go up and up and up forever because they hate the idea of the games they already own losing value (even more so if the values drop below what they paid for them).

[Arkanoid_Katamari]

Rare Atari games and rare games on other pre-Nintendo systems are still pretty high, and I've noticed Atari games seem to be higher then a few years back, on some titles. But generally u can get a nice Atari collection for $3 a game. NES will prolly hit that mark at some point for its cheaper titles.

But there is something to say about Nintendo still being relevant, and kids who are into the Wii U still have an interest in classic Nintendo. Kids who grew up on N64 and GameCube will still want to collect for SNES and NES. Nobody is playing a new Atari system these days. And when u play newer Nintendo games they're always full of throwbacks to yesteryear. Splatoon has the zappers, for example, older characters like Kid Icarus are showing up in Smash Bros. Space Invaders and Missile Command have not been relevant franchises in decades.

[SparTonberry]

Reselling has moved on towards the N64 and GameCube.
(like, why the hell is Melee a $60 game? Wasn't it the best-selling GC game? Unless because it's a disc game, a lot of people that didn't take of the game well broke theirs)

[badinsults]

Rare Atari games and rare games on other pre-Nintendo systems are still pretty high, and I've noticed Atari games seem to be higher then a few years back, on some titles. But generally u can get a nice Atari collection for $3 a game. NES will prolly hit that mark at some point for its cheaper titles.

But there is something to say about Nintendo still being relevant, and kids who are into the Wii U still have an interest in classic Nintendo. Kids who grew up on N64 and GameCube will still want to collect for SNES and NES. Nobody is playing a new Atari system these days. And when u play newer Nintendo games they're always full of throwbacks to yesteryear. Splatoon has the zappers, for example, older characters like Kid Icarus are showing up in Smash Bros. Space Invaders and Missile Command have not been relevant franchises in decades.

Without a doubt that is true, although I think you overestimate the desire of kids who grew up in the Gamecube era to want to collect games that were made before they were born. There will always be a market for Nintendo's biggest franchise games. Games like the Mario Bros games and Mega Man will always hold a premium, because everyone knows that they are good. It is like how there is always going to be a market for the music of the Beatles. The eventual downturn is going to hit games that are only expensive because of their relative rarity. Things like Panic Restaurant. Nobody who is getting their fill of classic games via the Virtual Console is hankering to get a title like that at several hundred dollars. I mean, I doubt it will ever be a $20 title again, but I doubt that it will remain a $300-$400 game. To keep with the 60s music analogies, these kind of games will be like the Yardbirds - a relatively popular band at the time with a mixed bag of a catalogue that is really only of interest to a select few people who grew up in the era and are nostalgic, or hardcore music nerds. I mean, I am a huge music nerd (I own hundreds of CDs), and I can't say I would go out of my way to get a Yardbirds album, because half the stuff they did was pretty crap. Panic Restaurant is like that.

Complete and sealed collecting is a different beast altogether. I'd say that sealed gaming is pretty niche, and I doubt that there are ever going to be a lot of people into that. The ones that are, are obviously willing to throw a lot of money. I'd say that boxes and manual collecting is far trickier, as it is much easier to make a fake box and manual than a cart. Yes, for the truly uncommon games, complete copies of the game are going to go for a lot of money. I think you will see a disconnect in the market. I'm willing to bet if you looked at Atari 2600 games, the prices for boxed games has continued to go up, while cart-only prices has stayed relatively stable during the past 10 years.

Like any bubble economy, there are lots of people who will deny that the Nintendo classic collectors market will stagnate. There are people who thought the dot-com bubble would never burst, or that housing prices would continue going up at double digit per annum growth rates before the 2008 crash happened. When people are all-in on an investment, it is a psychological defence to justify your choice. I personally think that treating video games as an investment is foolish. Once prices stop going up, and I guarantee that is inevitable, these people are going to get hit hard. This is capitalism 101, prices only increase when there is sustained growth. There is a finite amount of people who are nostalgic for these systems.