Ken Kutaragi and Kaz Hirai, have some huge decisions to make between now and about late August. Why late August you say? Because late August is the last time that Sony could announce a delay in America, without causing severe damage to their relationships with retailers. Obviously, Sony would blame it on unexpected, severe component shortages, probably some key component that unfortunately isn't easy to manufacture, or some other bogus nonsense like that.
Now, before we get into the scenarios that Kaz Hirai and Ken Kutaragi are going to be looking at, we have to understand a few things. No. 1, is the fact that if the PS3 is really going to have a Blu Ray drive, and if it's going to have a Hdd pre-installed, then the cost to bring a PS3 to market will be at the bare minimum, I said, MINIMUM, $800. There is no way it could possibly be manufactured for less than $800. So, we know that the cost to market is $800 per. So we have to take that into consideration. The other thing we take into consideration is the fact that they are likely to only have about 1.8 million systems to distribute worldwide prior to Xmas.
Now understanding those key factors, let's proceed with the scenarios facing Ken Kutaragi and Kaz Hirai:
Scenario 1 - Stay the course. Release the system worldwide, in very limited numbers. 1 million going to Japan, 800,000 to the U.S and Canada, and maybe a couple 100,000 to Europe. Sell this system for $499.99 in the U.S. and absorb a huge $300 hit per system, this of course would be a record loss for any electronics company to absorb per system. For every million Sony sells in the U.S. at $499 each, they loose 300 million. But you have no choice. You have to launch in the U.S. in 2006, and you can't come above $499.99. In Japan and Europe you price it alot higher, but in the U.S., you have to come in at $499.99
Scenario 2 - Release it worldwide, but sell it for $599.99, taking a $200 hit per system, still almost a record loss per unit in consumer electronics, if not a record. Again, the key factor is that you cannot let the 360 have two Xmas seasons to themselves in America, and your going to role the dice on the price. Even though $599.99 is a price that most Americans will have a hard time rationalizing, you know that you only have 800,000 anyways, and that those 800,000 will sell out even if they were 1 grand each.
Scenario 3 - In late August, you shock the gaming world with the announcement that 'due to unforseen circumstances in the production process of the PS3, we simply aren't going to have enough units to launch worldwide, and will only have enough units to launch in Japan, and with a very limited supply. The idea behind this scenario, is that you simply can't afford to lose $200 to $300 per system, and you are going to try to negotiate better terms with your part suppliers to get the cost per unit delivered down, and plan to launch in the U.S. in April 2007
Scenario 4 - The PS3 will arrive in America, for the miracle price of $499.99, but there are two catches. The first catch, is that there is only going to be 800,000 for the U.S. Yep, another 360 debacle. The other catch, is that they are being sold to retailers as bundles, and the retailers are forced to pass the bundle along to the consumer. The bundle works like this. $499.99 for the PS3 with the Hdd and Blue Ray, you also have to buy 3 PS3 games at $64.99 each. oh yeah, welcome to Blue Ray with the nice $64.99 price tag, by the way. ( you thought the 360 was bad) And you are also are forced to purchase a Dual Shock 3 with bluetooth wireless for $49.99 and pick one of several different required accessories for $39.99.
$499.99 PS3
$64.99
$64.99 3 first party PS3 games from a choice of 6
$64.99
$49.99 1 Dual Shock 3 with bluetooth wireless
$39.99 Off brand HDMI cable or whatever
Grand Total = $784
Gee, 784, that's interesting. Pretty damn close to the $800 cost to market price for the PS3. Retailers are forced to buy these bundles and pass them along to the consumer. Everyone that buys a PS3 has to walk away with 3 SCE internal games, from a list of 6, and 1 extra controller and one accessory