I listen to an awful lot of gaming podcasts while I'm at work. It makes the time fly by really fast. Listening to various podcasts by IGN, GameSpot and 1up and places like that, there seems to be this general consensus that if Sony's online service is truly free, and if Nintendo's service is truly free, that Microsoft will have no choice but to match prices with the other two, and they will be forced to offer Xbox Live gold service for free.
The questions that I have on this are:
1. Do you think Microsoft will be forced to offer Xbox Live Gold service for free in the near future (next 8 months or so)?
2. What will happen to the people that happen to have already paid for a year of service in advance, when Microsoft announces that they are giving away Xbox Live for free? Will they be refunded? Will they be given Microsoft points in exchange?
3. Do these rumors make you think twice about renewing for a year of service in advance, when they could end up offering it for free in the very near future?
4. Do you think that Sony or Nintendo will start off with a free service, but then realize that they actually need to start charging for it, because the cost of maintenance and upkeep will be too great?
5. Do you feel that Sony will have a free online service, but that you will have to deal with lots of advertisments and sponsorships, to essentially pay the piper?
6. If Microsoft does go with a free service, will they go the heavy advertisment route to help subsidize their costs?
Many of these Editors that are on these podcasts think the scenario is going to break down like this:
1. Microsoft will continue to charge for their service for now
2. Sony's service will indeed be free, but will come with a cost, the cost will be relatively bare bones service, and lots of advertisments and sponsorships that you will be forced to view, while waiting to connect to the server, etc, etc
3. Both Sony and Nintendo, will constantly remind gamers in their advertising, that you don't have to pay anything for their online service.
4. Microsoft will start to feel pressure, from being the only company of the big 3 to be charging money for their online service.
5. Microsoft will look into the idea of advertisments and sponsorships, to allow Silver members to game online for "free".
6. Microsoft will continue the Gold service, virtually unchanged, with the idea that if you don't want to be bothered by lots of advertisements and sponsorships, you can continue to pay for the Gold service. The Gold service could also offer extra bonuses like certain Xbox Live Arcade games for free, and certain deals and special offers for Gold Members.
7. Sony will realize just how daunting a proposition it is to run a serious online service, and they will eventually break their service into two segments, the free segment with advertising and sponsorships, and the premium service that costs $$ but has no advertising.
8. Some editiors think that logistically, the companies won't be able to offer to different kinds of service, free with ads or $$$ for no ads. That from a technical standpoint this won't be possible, so it's either all or nothing proposition.
What say you?