Ok, first, let me explain what I mean by viable. By viable, I don't mean existing. I'm sure the Wii will exist at retail for longer than three years, but there is a difference between existing and being viable. Sega Saturn games were carried at stores a lot longer than the system was viable, but for all intents and purposes, the Saturn had already died in the USA, even though games were still on store shelves (albeit in a very limited and almost token selection).
The Nintendo Wii is obviously a very hot commodity right now, it was the big Christmas gift, the hot ticket, and I'm not going to deny that. I have a Wii myself, and have been having quite a bit of fun with it. So, this isn't a "Let's bash on the Wii" thread, as it's more an examining of whether or not the Wii is built to last. Can this thing outlive the Dreamcast and Saturn from a retail standpoint? Will it outlive the GameCube? 3 years is a very long time if you think about it. The Nintendo Wii was launched on November 19th, 2006. If the Wii is viable at retail for a full 3 years, that would mean that it would still be alive and kicking on November 19th, 2009. That is a long time away from now my friends. I'm just not sure the Wii will have that kinda staying power. As we approach the end of 2007, and enter into 2008, the graphical disparity between the Wii and the PS3 and Xbox 360 is going to start to look comical. As fun as the Nintendo Wii might be, let's face it, the graphics absolutely suck. At least they suck right now. Zelda is a fun game, I'm enjoying my time with it right now, but even with component cables and 480p, the game is still pretty harsh on the eyes. Of course this is coming from a PS3 and 360 owner. I'm used to the graphical power of games like Gears of War and Motorstorm. When I play Zelda, and look at the rather bland textures and details, I wonder what Zelda would have been like if it say had the graphical polish of a game like Kameo for Xbox 360. Kameo isn't exactly a graphical powerhouse, but had Zelda had graphics up to the level of Kameo, I think the Wii could have some real staying power.
Again, I'm not going to dispute the fact that the Wii is a very hot item right now, and that Zelda is getting incredible reviews, with many 10's and 9.5's being thrown around. I know that alot of people are in love with the idea behind the Wii-mote and the breath of fresh air that Nintendo has pumped into the Industry. I'm not debating that at all. But I'm also recognzing that things can change very, very quickly. What was once the talk of the town, can be quickly forgotten. We know how things like that can happen. At one time the Nintendo GameCube seemed full of promise, and ultimately the GameCube was a tremendous dissapointment for Nintendo, from a market share standpoint. Nintendo is going to make alot of money off the Wii, regardless of whether the system only lasts 1 year, 2 years, 3 years or 6 years. They are going to make good money on it. They are making good money on it right now. Every Wii that is sold, is profit on their bottom line. Every Wii-mote and Nunchuk and Zelda that is sold is profit on their bottom line. I know that. No need to feel sorry for Nintendo if Wii ends up being more of a stop-gap product. They are going to make a killing off it regardless. But I'm just wondering if all these people that are so gung-ho for the Wii realize how short lived this all could be?
I think Nintendo made a slight mistake by making it so underpowered graphically. Gameplay over Graphics, I know, I know. But as consumers, we are very fickle, and eventually, if the graphics start to look really ordinary in comparison to the other systems, people will move on to what is more shiny and more attractive. Face it, the mass consumers are quite shallow. The same thing that is sending them in flocks toward the Wii (the fact it's "THE" hot item for Xmas), is the same thing that could send them running away in a year or two. Nintendo will of course pump out their big franchises every so often to keep everything afloat, but for how long will Nintendo Wii be reviews be front page material? At what point will the Wii reviews and previews be buried in the back pages of the magazines, getting only a few pages of coverage and a few paragraphs, much like the current coverage of GBA and GameCube and Xbox 1? Things can change quickly, and I'm just not so sure this thing has the staying power to make it past say 2 1/2 years of relevence. 2 1/2 years might actually be pushing it to be honest. 2 1/2 years from launch would be May 2009. Do you really think the Wii is going to be a big thing in gaming in May 2009? If it is, it's going to be up to the third parties to really push the envelope of the Wii, and the control scheme. If all they do is make quicky ports and cash in's ala Happy Feet and Ice Age, then the Wii is doomed to a short lifespan, regardless of Nintendo's first party efforts. However, if they really make a serious effort, and treat the Wii the same way they treat the 360 and PS3, then maybe, just maybe the Wii can last a full 3 years or more.
What's your take?