What are the rarest officially licensed NES games other than Stadium Events?

[Landon]

**Edit- Nah, I'll delete that (although I'm sure plenty saw it- and yeah, it's the gospel). After a moment of thought, after learning more about this PortNoyd retard, I'm not going to waste a seconds time "debating" a drooler who thinks that progressing the discussion involves his creation of lame little theories, blogs about shit and works as a "food scientist" while questioning the career paths of people who make in a month what he does in a year.

http://sunnyskeptic.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/crying-baby-party-56800676.jpg

I couldn't care less how long he's been a participant in the retrogaming community or how awesome his game room is (it is pretty damn awesome... If my entire life revolved around this stuff, I could only hope to one day get mine in that condition) - the guy is a fucking dolt.

(This post 100% "Big Words" Free so PortNoyd could follow along without triggering any inferiority complexes. Cliff Notes- I'll cop to having a bit of an ego, I'll cop to being a bit condescending at times, but people like you completely earn it)

[Landon]

By the way... Is this you?

http://www.peekyou.com/dave_warmington/22016256

I'm debating a "food technologist" who felt fit to question my entirely successful career path, simply because I decided to develop out some category killing domain names I bought in the 1990's and made enough money as a result to do it full time?

lmao. Yeah. Here's a real fucking braintrust for ya.
http://c3.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/14/l_ee51f54315e08af175278f6e141f4d4e.jpg

I'd be willing to bet my entire net worth that the lions share of your entire net worth is in video games. I'd also bet your lips move when you read.

[Pezcore343]

I don't understand why you are putting food scientist in quotes, as if it is not a real profession. I also don't understand why you're bandying about salaries like some kind of internet penis wagging competition. If you can't discuss things civilly then I'm pretty sure no one wants you to remain a part of any conversation. Also, if you think that websites created and run by people with no other qualifications than an $8 domain name are such cretins, then I can't imagine why you would even feel the need to troll here.

[Landon]

"Discuss things civilly".

Yeah dude. You clearly "don't understand" a lot of things.
Maybe go back and read the thread and try to follow along. I was discussing things perfectly "civilly' until...

http://c3.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/14/l_ee51f54315e08af175278f6e141f4d4e.jpg

...decided to pipe up and retard-prattle all over the thread, making a bunch of baseless personal insults and invective- one of which was a cute little theory about my employment and career, which in turn led to an open offer for Mr. Food Technologist to put his money where his mouth was.

I'll cop to maybe not being the most patient person when it comes time to explain stuff I learned in 11th grade math and yeah, I might come off as condescending at times- I'll even cop to not caring much if I do or don't come off as condescending- but nothing I said was anywhere near what this asshole posted, so spare me the after-the-fact "high road" and take a minute or two to see how this thread went prior to his douching it up.

[allyourblood]

I don't know. Landon appeared civil enough to me, and only became defensive after portnoyd started making remarks about his "trying to sound smart". The guy threw out a few "fifty cent words" (apparently); so what?

I'm inclined to agree with him about Ebay being the largest and most accurate single source of information in regards to rarity. It's not perfect, but from my own experience, no other source has matched it across the board.

[Pezcore343]

After looking back over it, I do owe a bit of an apology to Landon as Portnoyd did say some pretty obnoxious and uncalled for things. The reason I hadn't seen that before is because I had already read and replied to his post just 5 minutes after he wrote it, and before he edited it with all of the personal insults. Damn retconning.

[scooterb23]

I just want to know how the hell the world's best picture of Perkar got involed in this thread?

[Fuyukaze]

I must be into morbid train wrecks cause suddenly I'm watching this one.

I'd say some of the later Koei titles are on the rare side. Nobunaga's Ambition 2, Bandit Kings, and Romance of the Three Kingdoms 2 are hard to find.

I'm still watching this thread for a lock. It should be coming soon.

[pseudonym]

**Edit- Nah, I'll delete that (although I'm sure plenty saw it- and yeah, it's the gospel). After a moment of thought, after learning more about this PortNoyd retard, I'm not going to waste a seconds time "debating" a drooler who thinks that progressing the discussion involves his creation of lame little theories, blogs about shit and works as a "food scientist" while questioning the career paths of people who make in a month what he does in a year.

http://sunnyskeptic.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/crying-baby-party-56800676.jpg

I couldn't care less how long he's been a participant in the retrogaming community or how awesome his game room is (it is pretty damn awesome... If my entire life revolved around this stuff, I could only hope to one day get mine in that condition) - the guy is a fucking dolt.

(This post 100% "Big Words" Free so PortNoyd could follow along without triggering any inferiority complexes. Cliff Notes- I'll cop to having a bit of an ego, I'll cop to being a bit condescending at times, but people like you completely earn it)


uh-oh spaghetti-o's

http://i120.photobucket.com/albums/o191/Tiredofstupidpeople/hindenburgthread.jpg

[RASK1904]

Here's another "Rarety Guide". I think this is only done off ebay. I realy don't like this one. But I do and will use all and any info available. The part I don't like is they mix Sealed, CIB and loose together to come up with there weird percent thing. I understand if you find your numbers the same way the numbers should work out. But some very common games Sealed are very very rare.

http://www.rarityguide.com/nes_view.php

I have it set to show you the top 80 rare Nes games. Sorry can't get the Unliscned out.

[portnoyd]

Oh holy shit, I win. Jesus dude, have you been on the internet for what, 5? 10 minutes?

Don't feed the troll, troll. The best course of action was to ignore me, go about your argument and you failed horribly at it. I must have hit a big ole' nerve.

I think that's the first time someone changed their avatar to act out against me. And it's not even me, lol.

[Landon]

Oh holy shit, I win. Jesus dude, have you been on the internet for what, 5? 10 minutes?

Don't feed the troll, troll. The best course of action was to ignore me, go about your argument and you failed horribly at it. I must have hit a big ole' nerve.

I think that's the first time someone changed their avatar to act out against me. And it's not even me, lol.
LOL, yeah.... "HAHAHA I WIN! I WIN! YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE EVEN RESPONDED TO ME!!
I WIN! I WIN!! I SO WIN THIS!! YES! I WIN! EVEN RESPONDING TO ME SHOWS HOW MUCH I WIN! WINFLAKES! YES! WIN!" As evidenced of just how long I've been on the internet, I can say I've been watching that lame proclamation by retards who get their faces ripped off in an argument on a BBS since the 20th century. Ya know, running in the special Olympics and all, but so standard. I was hoping for better from you. For someone with so much bluster, you kinda shrunk up a bit here.

(I do fail, though... If that isn't you. I was kinda hoping it was, but to commemorate whoever it is, I think I'll keep the av, because it's awesome and that dude looks smarter than you've demonstrated yourself to be itt)

Anyway, if you're one of those dbags who has an overwhelming urge to have the last word (<-- certainty), I'll offer it to you here. I'll limit any further discussion in this thread to blowing holes in the fictitious, arbitrary, bullshit based system of determining cart rarity that's been swallowed hook, line and sister by morons like yourself and mindlessly defended like a nutriding fanboy.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Landon, I'll tell you why eBay is a flawed source of supply data... Certain titles have high demand and low supply... That results in a high market price. Those titles are going to show up more frequently, despite it's limited supply. A title of similar supply, but lower, even much lower, demand are not going to show as often because the reward of sale is directly/proportionately lower. When you are trying to determine supply, you don't want demand mucking up your statistics. eBay is empirical, so it has value, but there are more factors at play on eBay than dry calculations of supply.

[pseudonym]

LOL, yeah.... "HAHAHA I WIN! I WIN! YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE EVEN RESPONDED TO ME!!
I WIN! I WIN!! I SO WIN THIS!! YES! I WIN!" As evidenced of just how long I've been on the internet, I can say I've been watching that lame proclamation by retards who get their faces ripped off in an argument on a BBS since the 20th century. Ya know, running in the special Olympics and all, but so standard. I was hoping for better from you. For someone with so much bluster, you kinda shrunk up a bit here.

(I do fail, though... If that isn't you. I was kinda hoping it was, but to commemorate whoever it is, I think I'll keep the av, because it's awesome and that dude looks smarter than you've demonstrated yourself to be itt)

Anyway, if you're one of those dbags who has an overwhelming urge to have the last word (<-- certainty), I'll offer it to you here. I'll limit any further discussion in this thread to blowing holes in the fictitious, arbitrary, bullshit based system of determining cart rarity that's been swallowed hook, line and sister by morons like yourself.

Oh, hai, it's a troll.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prgm4eKq6d4

Don't waste your breathe Icarus, all evidence contrary to his analysis of rarity are merely "anecdotal"; all hail Ebay!

[Landon]

Icarus: I agree that higher demand/low supply/high price might inspire the occasional 'desperation listing' in relation to low demander/low supply/lower price examples, but generally, ebay has a few things going for it in this regard.

First, albeit to a diminishing degree year over year, classic carts still suffer from a meaningful market inefficiency, in that there's still something of a "wild" from which supply can be derived to arbitrage on ebay. From this, we have lots of people cleaning out closets and whatever, all listing carts and all doing so irrespective to their value and/or rarity. These people are a fantastic macro sample for rarity, since they have no ulterior motivations for listing. The logic process for my own algo do try to compensate for the "professional retrogame lister" by adding a nominal degree of + 'rarity weight' (in the Perl bucket sort that controls the program logic) for carts that are listed by people who clearly aren't 'enthusiasts' and are cleaning out closets, or whatever. There are a few obvious and pretty reliable ways to determine what classification a seller is in. This is another area where I wish I had started gathering data sooner, as these people diminish year over year, but they're still a large part of the overall market.

Overall, though, the listings correlate pretty closely to existing "rarity guide" architechure, with a few glaring examples that are clearly not price dependant.

[Landon]

Oh, hai, it's a troll.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prgm4eKq6d4

Don't waste your breathe Icarus, all evidence contrary to his analysis of rarity are merely "anecdotal"; all hail Ebay!

:rolleyes:

Why are you even still in this thread?
At least the other retard made no effort to counter-point anything and just blustered the thread up. You've spent quite some time arguing a point that is flat out wrong and obviously don't have any sort of background that would allow you to keep up in the discussion, so instead of shrieking "ZOMG TROLL!!", try s'ing tfu and just quietly slinking away from a debate you can't keep up with, or try to add something meaningful to it for the first time thus far other than displaying to the world that little anecdotes are very meaningful to your total analytical process (run on sentence ftw)

[Icarus Moonsight]

People selling, irrespective of market price... That just brings in another aberration... The buyers and sellers that do not have the knowledge about supply/demand in this market (also known as speculators or on the other pricing end, garage seller turned eBayer). You can read some sort of supply from eBay, but it's far from an Xlistings / Ytime = Zsupply Plus, eBay does not represent the totality of trading, which entails part of your needed supply sample, as missing.

There are much better methods and the DP guide, AFAIU, used them all in an aggregate and they also used personal experience from longtime hobbyists and collectors, which is something eBay, on it's own, can never replicate. Some would call this a synthetic/analytic problem... but, :p to them.

You also lost me at 'market inefficiency'. Logging doesn't have a similar market problem because you have to harvest trees. It's just the nature of the market/commodity. To call that an inefficiency is kinda shoddy because it breaks from the reality of it.

Reading the entirety of your posts now has caused me some regret from even replying. Attack the content, not the person. Otherwise, folks can safely assume your just another net-blowhard. I had to learn this myself, and it does take time. Work at it.

[pseudonym]

:rolleyes:

Why are you even still in this thread?
At least the other retard made no effort to counter-point anything and just blustered the thread up. You've spent quite some time arguing a point that is flat out wrong and obviously don't have any sort of background that would allow you to keep up in the discussion, so instead of shrieking "ZOMG TROLL!!", try s'ing tfu and just quietly slinking away from a debate you can't keep up with, or try to add something meaningful to it for the first time thus far other than displaying to the world that little anecdotes are very meaningful to your total analytical process (run on sentence ftw)

Translation for us Luddite ignoramusus: I have a small dick and I like waving it around when someone disagrees with my opinions.

Nice job with the "I make more money than you, so nyah!", comment. That was amusing.X_x

[portnoyd]

This is awesome. He's completely lost his composure and completely on the defensive. He went from:


Further, I think a lot of rarity guides have had an undue influence on value that bears no relationship to actual rarity. In short, based on what I've seen, there is an enormous perception component to 'game rarity' (which in turn influences price) and some of it appears to be inaccurate. Much of this perception is driven by outdated and inefficient data.

To


I'll limit any further discussion in this thread to blowing holes in the fictitious, arbitrary, bullshit based system of determining cart rarity that's been swallowed hook, line and sister by morons like yourself and mindlessly defended like a nutriding fanboy.

Your tone was already degrading rapidly when people didn't outright agree with you. I figured your arrogance would put you into full-on defensive mode but I never imagined to this scale. I don't need to do anything else with you - you're doing all the work for me.

[Landon]

You can read some sort of supply from eBay, but it's far from an Xlistings / Ytime = Zsupply. There are much better methods and the DP guide, AFAIU, used them all in an aggregate and they also used personal experience from longtime hobbyists and collectors, which is something eBay, on it's own, can never replicate. Some would call this a synthetic/analytic problem... but, :p to them.

Actually, yes, X / Y = Z, generally.
You will notice that the only counter people make to the idea that ebay is a standardized market source and can yeild relevant rarity data is along the lines of "Well, it can't cover EVERY SINGLE TRANSACTION so it's invalid!!" or "EXPERIENCED COLLECTORS KNOW BETTER THAN THE DATA YEILDED BY THE STANDARD, CENTRAL MARKET- BECAUSE THEY'RE EXPERIENCED COLLECTORS!!!" or "WHEN I FIND CARTS AT GOODWILL..."

As I said once already, anyone who argues against this method would do well to learn about the statistical precepts of something simple, like exit polling, etc. There will always be a margin of error, but it's a very tight margin and the data means a helluva lot more than the "hunches" put out there by people who take the time to publish price guides based on anecdote and theory.



You also lost me at 'market inefficiency'. Logging doesn't have a similar market problem because you have to harvest trees. It's just the nature of the market/commodity. To call that an inefficiency is kinda shoddy because it breaks from the reality of it.

You apparently don't understand what "market efficiency"/"market inefficiency" means (I think? I didn't really understand what was behind your logging analogy, so maybe it's just me not getting your point)


Reading the entirety of your posts...

I'm guessing not. The discussion has been in pretty high order, until PortNoyd personally attacked me, simply because he's clearly a retarded fanboy (LOL @ "DP HIMSELF!!". I'm the evil devil who came along and told him his god is a lie. When people are told their god is fiction, they usually respond about like this)

[Landon]

This is awesome. He's completely lost his composure and completely on the defensive. He went from:

To
Your tone was already degrading rapidly when people didn't outright agree with you. I figured your arrogance would put you into full-on defensive mode but I never imagined to this scale. I don't need to do anything else with you - you're doing all the work for me.

I WIN! I WIN! I SO TOTALLY WIN!

I WIN RIGHT HERE! I MADE A BUNCH OF RETARDED, BASELESS ASSUMPTIONS AND I MADE YOU GET DEFENSIVE!
I SO, SO TOTALLY WIN! LOOK AT ME!! WINNING!!
O'DOYLE RULES!

:rolleyes:

(LOL at the idea that you could "do anything" as it pertains to this discussion, other than crap on it and completely derail it with irrelevant bullshit)

[portnoyd]

I'm guessing not. The discussion has been in pretty high order, until PortNoyd personally attacked me.

These are all your posts from before I made mine.


Snarky, idiotic, outdated internet'ism aside, some people are awfully good at writing programs... or contracting others to write programs for them to collect and sort data. I actually gave you a link to a simplified, free, publicly available example of just that.


He cited that as an illustrative example. Don't be obnoxiously hyper-literal.


I think you're struggling with comprehending what I'm saying. Let me see if I can't simplify it for you.


Feeble minds overemphasize anecdote. Don't fall into that trap.


As far as how rarity levels are "decided", right now, it's pretty stupid and largely arbitrary, based on the opinions of a few people who are qualified only by an $8 domain name and having started a website that 'took'...

You were being a prick. Now that someone acts like a prick back, you can't handle it. Stop talking down to people. You don't have any respect for this site, so why stay here? If you don't like that we don't implicitly agree with you, leave.

[Landon]

No, those aren't "my posts". Those are little fragments of my posts. Context is important.

... and yeah. I definitely 'can't handle' your tardisms suffixed by some proclamation of "victory" in a battle that exists only in your mind. Definitely "can't handle" that :rolleyes:

As far as "we" not agreeing, who's "we"? You? The slow guy from Canada? Certainly a few others are on your side too, but there's a 0% chance that the majority of people on this site suck at logic so badly, they'd put their faith in arbitrary notion and "opinion" over an analysis of available data. Whatever anyone might think of me personally or how I communicate, we aren't asking what angels look like here- there is a right and a wrong answer to this question, and I am absolutely on the right side of it. It's why I articulate my position, while you weep and shriek.

I have a great deal of respect for the site- not so much for a few of its participants, including a few 'long timers' who've come to be accepted as cognoscenti for the wrong reasons; basically being idiots who've 'accomplished' nothing other than spending a lot of money on old video games. If that's the only criteria, I could probably spend my way to "respected expert" status fairly quickly, but it ain't the objective here.

Just want to point out that there's a (much much much much much much much much much much much) better way to go about analyzing rarity than praying at the altar of anecdote.

[portnoyd]

Whatever anyone might think of me personally or how I communicate, we aren't asking what angels look like here- there is a right and a wrong answer to this question, and I am absolutely on the right side of it.

You are not on the right side of the question. The right side is production run numbers. If you want logic, that's the ultimate (and unattainable) logic. eBay is as anecdotal as anything else. What I was trying to say in my very first reply to you (go back and check) is that there are so many other factors (as mentioned previously by myself and others) which flaw eBay that you'll never get that true logical rarity you have been harping about. While polling of it would give you data, that data is on equal footing with anything else because of those flaws. It's all imperfect. That's life.

All shitstorming aside, if you're going to have that mentality, then you're not going to get anywhere. I'll repeat what I said: You don't have any respect for this site, so why stay here? The comment about the $8 website seals it. You cannot expect anyone to have this conversation with when you don't respect the other side. Leave and go somewhere else; maybe you'll have better luck.

[ssjlance]

Nevermind I can't get the pic to work.

Anyway, you guys seriously need to grow up. It's a thread about the rarity of NES games, for fuck's sake.

[Icarus Moonsight]

You seem to assume that the people who worked on the DP guide just pulled it out their ass... I understand the non-trust of floating abstractions and theories that work on paper, but not in practice. You're just as guilty of the charges you make in this regard. eBay is not gospel, nor is the DP guide or any sort of 'price guide'. When it comes right down to it, you get the price that someone will pay for an item with no actual ceiling imposed by reality, but supply is set and finite. That is where the eBay disconnect really comes in. What has incentive to show up, is what brings the most mollah, so in terms of supply, the sample is heavily distorted toward that incentive.

[Landon]

You are not on the right side of the question. The right side is production run numbers. If you want logic, that's the ultimate (and unattainable) logic. eBay is as anecdotal as anything else. What I was trying to say in my very first reply to you (go back and check) is that there are so many other factors (as mentioned previously by myself and others) which flaw eBay that you'll never get that true logical rarity you have been harping about. While polling of it would give you data, that data is on equal footing with anything else because of those flaws. It's all imperfect. That's life.

We all agree that the best possible scenario is production runs. That isn't going to happen, so we have to work with the situation here in reality. As such, we have to figure out a way to gauge rarity using available resources. We all agree that none of the resources will be "perfect", thus we have to choose the "less imperfect" option.

In this case, we have two options at our disposal.
One is anecdote and relying on people we beatify as "experts" for their opinion. The other is to analyze the data available in the standard, central marketplace.

The former has it's advantages. From time to time, the "experts" will hear things that are outside the spectrum of the standard, central market. They have the advantage of insight and intuition, which can go a long way in predicting things like demand. Unfortunately, they're one person, with a subjective opinion. Even if you string enough of them together to form some sort of "expert consensus", all you have is a smattering of subjectivity.

The other option is to examine the central, standard marketplace, which is ebay.
Ebay obviously has it's limitations, too. It's liable to some behavioral economics that might skew things one way or the other... It's obviously limited only to people who have computers and then, are ebay sellers.

Still, scientifically analyzing ebay sale data to determine rarity is kinda like an Alexa ranking for a website. It's rarely 100% spot-on accurate, but the 95% or even 90% accuracy it does achieve is perfectly adequate and harping on the margin of error (or the dynamics that contribute to the margin of error) doesn't detract from what's achieved. Further, it doesn't enhance the legitimacy of the former method, either.

So yeah, while there are two methods, one is much better than the other, presuming that logic, reason and fact are valued when undertaking analysis. There's just no way around this. I can understand your emotional attachment to the data you've apparently been believing for quite some time, but what we have here with you is basically nothing more than a tantrum of cognitive dissonance.


All shitstorming aside, if you're going to have that mentality, then you're not going to get anywhere. I'll repeat what I said: You don't have any respect for this site, so why stay here? The comment about the $8 website seals it. You cannot expect anyone to have this conversation with when you don't respect the other side. Leave and go somewhere else; maybe you'll have better luck.

Stop this pathetic wailing and pleading for me to "go away". It's hard to watch. I'm not going anywhere and I will confront lies or failures of logic, even if those failures have come to be accepted and standardized by the community.

[dbiersdorf]

I just love how Landon begins the thread as a poster who appears to have quite a bit of intelligence, and progressively goes on a downhill spiral by demonstrating how immature and ignorant he really is. Hey maybe you should use more CAPITAL LETTERS and "s'ing tfu" expressions to get your point across. Or better yet searching up someone's personal profession! Like you said yourself your theories and analysis are based on 11th grade math, that doesn't make you some PhD in economics, and simply sugar coating it with arrogant tones and a thesaurus doesn't make it any more definitive.

But seriously, how old are some of you guys? You're all acting like this is some mud fight in the middle-school playground. How about you guys stop taking all of this personally, quit yelling "trolllzzzz", and actually continue to have a civilized conversation?

[Landon]

You seem to assume that the people who worked on the DP guide just pulled it out their ass... I understand the non-trust of floating abstractions and theories that work on paper, but not in practice. You're just as guilty of the charges you make in this regard. eBay is not gospel, nor is the DP guide or any sort of 'price guide'. When it comes right down to it, you get the price that someone will pay for an item with no actual ceiling imposed by reality, but supply is set and finite. That is where the eBay disconnect really comes in. What has incentive to show up, is what brings the most mollah, so in terms of supply, the sample is heavily distorted toward that incentive.

You seem to forget that the objective here is to asses rarity across a sample size, not "price" or "value".

[Icarus Moonsight]

But if your sample is biased by price incentive it's a worthless benchmark in terms of supply.

"The other option is to examine the central, standard marketplace, which is ebay."

WTF does that mean? A market is an organism of human action in constant flux. You can not perceive what does not exist.

[Landon]

I just love how Landon begins the thread as a poster who appears to have quite a bit of intelligence, and progressively goes on a downhill spiral by demonstrating how immature and ignorant he really is.

Ilove how the word "ignorant" has become an associative, catch-all where if someone disagrees with someone or is offended by something, they immediately trot out that word and start slinging it around.

What exactly is that I'm "ignorant" about?
Maybe guilty of not suffering fools well and taking a low-road or two, but in the context of this conversation, I'm not "ignorant", even though that word is awfully popular, regardless of whether it actually fits or not.

(and PS- My algo isn't "based on 1th grade math". Go back, read that post, comprehend what I said, then get that little burning "embarrassment" feeling in your chest. I swear to god, this thread has become a battle of warding off reading-comprehension issues)

[Icarus Moonsight]

I assure you that my points are failing to land in your vicinity... I am talking about supply, and how price/value incentive leads to slanted supply data. You think I'm talking about price/value for their own sake.

[Landon]

But if your sample is biased by price incentive it's a worthless benchmark in terms of supply.

"Price incentive" as much as an ounce of gold trades in the central market for a price liable to it's daily spot value, even though, out there somewhere, there's someone in a pawn shop selling gold for much less than that... It's like saying that we should factor into the price of a Rembrandt the fact that someone found on in a trashcan, rather than analyzing the data for sales at Sothebys and Christies. The "price-incentive" is on the buyers side and only that there is a knowledge-gap as far as people knowing what certain carts sell for on ebay, so make the mistake of selling them too cheaply.

Further, as far as the anomaly you guys love so much; unless we can demonstrate that people who own Bubble Bobble 2 are more apt to endure financial hardship than those who own Flintstones: Dino Peak, it has no bearing on relative rarity as far as people selling because they "need money". Further, unless we can demonstrate that people who own Bubble Bobble 2 are more apt to endure financial hardship over people who own all other NES carts, we can presume that the number of people selling NES carts because they "need money" will be reflective across all carts. You're trying to assign the circumstance to the outcome using totally fallacious reasons.


WTF does that mean? A market is an organism of human action in constant flux. You can not perceive what does not exist.

Uh, wat?
I thought your earlier "timber" analogy might have just been a mis-step of communication, but now I'm starting to get the feeling you're just a bit on the flaky side.

[pseudonym]

I was interested in what Landon was saying until he started being a dick, and I'm guilty of being a dick in more than couple of my posts earlier.

Let's clear the slate; do you have any hard evidence of what you're talking about? I'd like to see which games you suppose are harder or easier to find than most/all rarities guides suggest. Another reason I think Landon is just talking out of his ass, a lot of "jargon" words and little actual evidence about what he's talking about.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Fuck it. Goodnight and good luck.

[Landon]

Let's clear the slate; do you have any hard evidence of what you're talking about?

Actually, yeah. I do.

[RASK1904]

Man, you guys...

Anyways. Here's the Mike Etler one from '97. heard he owned a videogame store and just kept track of every game that came in. When I first started this was the list I used. Thanx for the help Mike. Wonder where he is?

Anyways. I thought this could help "the douches". The last one is done "robot ebay" this one "the old fashion way". Also there is a couple others that I know about. How about you two STFU and start actually figuring something out to help.

opps forgot the link....
http://www.gamersgraveyard.com/repository/nes/nesrarity.txt

[Landon]

That list was groundbreaking as hell and also the one I started off with, when I started out. I think I still have my original stained, paper-clipped, highlighted, scribbled paper copy somewhere.

[pseudonym]

Man, you guys...

Anyways. Here's the Mike Etler one from '97. heard he owned a videogame store and just kept track of every game that came in. When I first started this was the list I used. Thanx for the help Mike. Wonder where he is?

Anyways. I thought this could help "the douches". The last one is done "robot ebay" this one "the old fashion way". Also there is a couple others that I know about. How about you two STFU and start actually figuring something out to help.

opps forgot the link....
http://www.gamersgraveyard.com/repository/nes/nesrarity.txt

And your point is? Every NES collector who's been around for awhile knows about Mike Etler's rarity list. It was really the only thing that collectors had at that point for buying the rarer games out there but it's sure as hell outdated now.

[Icarus Moonsight]

I had a print-out of that list as well, before I landed here.

I wonder how many Stadium Events crossed his palm to earn that "B" and also wonder how well he sleeps at night now... :bigmac:

[portnoyd]

Fuck it. Goodnight and good luck.

The sad part is this is the person that has been trying to discuss with you "on a level you can appreciate" without any vitriol or flames.


Let's clear the slate; do you have any hard evidence of what you're talking about? I'd like to see which games you suppose are harder or easier to find than most/all rarities guides suggest.


Actually, yeah. I do.

Which he won't post because he thinks it'll give him some tactical advantage in the future based on this post:


I'm not the person behind Video Game Price Charts, but their system appears to be pretty decent (a bit different from my own) and it's awfully gracious of them to make it public. I wouldn't.

Seriously, post your info. All the replies in the world pale to hard numbers. I agree with pseudonym. Let the data do the talking.

Etler admitted that the Stadium Events thing was a mistake. Pobody's nerfect.

[Icarus Moonsight]

I was just thinking that if he got them that frequently and sold them for like $20 or something, that's right up there with mom tossing out your comics when you're away at university.

His charge of aberration is the evaluation process of "experts". We have no access to production figures, might for a scant portion of the library, but even much of that is rumored rather than empirical. At least the experiences of people can be measured by their past percepts, related to others of similar experience and expertise, and those percepts even extend beyond the life of eBay and the internet at large. And I thought that the DP guide was a living document, as in, it is edited when new information comes to light and that information bears fruit... Please, correct me if I am wrong!

The charge I lay against eBay supply evaluation is the flaw in the process itself. Unless you can normalize the data to compensate for factors besides supply that affect the frequency of a certain title getting a listing. And how can you be sure that the normalization process is offering you valid census? There is just too many unknowns for eBay to be the main source. It has something to offer, but supply is surely not it's strong suit. You only see the things when they are transferring hands. You are missing much that must be considered.

[RASK1904]

The rarity list here , there, there, and at NA are good enough. Then I showed you how far they have come. It's all taken care of.

[portnoyd]

That's another interesting point. Just how different are they than what has been established?

Let's assume they're dramatic. Who will listen? Already established perceptions would be hard to break by one person. Here's where the $8 website wins out over the logic he has been trying to sell us for the past 50 posts.

Here's another hypothetical. Let's say Landon keeps them to himself. What benefit does that serve him? It won't change the game's prices at all, meaning although he finds Bubble Bobble 2 to be considerably more common than originally thought, he's still going to pay $80-$100 loose for it. This information offers no benefit to him. Whereas VGPC.com allows you to follow price trends which can be useful for playing the NES market like a stock market, rarity trends have no value because not only do they not fluctuate, they do not offer a competitive advantage, just a guideline.

[tubeway]

Man, you guys...

Anyways. Here's the Mike Etler one from '97.

Wow, what a blast from the past! I remember this list from when I first started using the internet. So many memories. I also had a mangled printed copy of it.

[Landon]

That's another interesting point. Just how different are they than what has been established?

Let's assume they're dramatic. Who will listen? Already established perceptions would be hard to break by one person. Here's where the $8 website wins out over the logic he has been trying to sell us for the past 50 posts.

Here's another hypothetical. Let's say Landon keeps them to himself. What benefit does that serve him? It won't change the game's prices at all, meaning although he finds Bubble Bobble 2 to be considerably more common than originally thought, he's still going to pay $80-$100 loose for it. This information offers no benefit to him. Whereas VGPC.com allows you to follow price trends which can be useful for playing the NES market like a stock market, rarity trends have no value because not only do they not fluctuate, they do not offer a competitive advantage, just a guideline.

You apparently aren't as dumb as I had originally guessed. All great questions and points.

The most critical is this...


Whereas VGPC.com allows you to follow price trends which can be useful for playing the NES market like a stock market, rarity trends have no value because not only do they not fluctuate, they do not offer a competitive advantage, just a guideline.

... as it's absolutely, 100% correct (except when you suggest that a more cogent understanding of rarity has no value). The competitive advantage in assessing a more accurate rarity metric lies in my personal hunch (totally subjective) that demand for vintage NES carts will see meaningful increases in the years to come and as the demand grows, having a more solid grasp on prospective supply allows one to approach the interplay between demand and price with a much better footing. This is particularly so with esoteric carts that are still somewhat 'inexpensive' in relation to their genuine scarcity, but that may change quickly should macro demand for NES games increase big and meaningful competition is introduced to acquire them. As we've seen over the past 4 years, some carts will probably rise in price faster than others when it's realized that they are actually scarcer than originally thought. I believe the "realization" of this will come naturally (precipitated by the natural growth in interest for NES carts), whether I create a public, real time rarity tool or not. Being ahead of that curve is where the "advantage" lies, but my interest in doing it is entirely academic and just for fun, not motivated by any sort of financial gain. It isn't like a $20 cart doubling to $40 does anything for my bottom line.

As far as trying to "bring along" the broader retrogaming community by showing them that a portion of what they've been led to believe as far as rarity isn't based on demonstrable fact, I have no desire to move that mountain. I'm not the missionary type. Let the natives keep worshiping the sun for all I care.

[portnoyd]

I'm somewhat of a dick. Being a dick =/= being dumb.

Anyway, discussion at hand. So in simple terms, better rarity values lets you predict future spikes in prices better than most. Get this one now before it's too late, if you will. That's all you had to say. Btw, if your data shows Race America as being considerably more rare than it's rated now, I may have to get behind your work.

It's funny Etler's list comes up, because all NES rarity is based on it, whether derivative or original. It also set the tone for all NES pricing as well, Stadium Events being the acknowledged by the author anomaly. Prior to SE not being up for sale, it went for a scant $40 in 2001. Fast forward 2 years without a single copy turning up anywhere, and the masses were a tad ravenous for the one that put it into three digits (although I did not win that specific cart, I did end up with it, whoop whoop).

Even with better data, you're still going against the perceived gold standard. While it may help you in some ways, going against it may hurt you in others just because everyone else is using a Etler born list and you are going against the grain.

NES collecting is probably 5-10 years before peak. 2600 has recently, so using that as a benchmark, the timeframe sounds about right. Only time will tell though.

Also: data please.

[pseudonym]

I don't know but if we're throwing titles out there that could be rarer than they seem, how about Sqoon, Zombie Nation, Best of the Best Championship Karate, Rad Racket Deluxe II, MUSCLE/Ninja Kid, and Motor City Patrol.

I was a bit jaded about the whole "grab it before it's too late", thing before but I've been surprised in the past- the mad grab a few years ago for Athletic World Family Fun Fitness CIBs was neat to watch.

In short, nothing much to add here except more speculation and anecdotes.

[mobiusclimber]

The problem, as I see it, is that there is always going to be a flaw in using only one source, and there always will be one. If we knew production numbers, it still wouldn't tell us rarity for every title. Knowing that there, for instance, should be more copies of Cheetah Men II would probably not have located that warehouse (or whatever it was) any faster, and I'd be willing to bet that there are certain titles that were produced in larger quantities than what we'd assume based on its current rarity level, but that those other copies are lost to history. Again, my mention of Cheetah Men II is only meant to be an extreme example to illustrate a point.

In the case of Ebay, say you have a decent game that could sell for $20. Some would like the game enough to not want to sell it at that price. Less auctions, according to Landon, equals less copies for sale/trade/available, equals more rare. This lack of availability drives up the price, so more people decide, screw it, I'd rather sell at $40 than keep it. Now it no longer looks like this game is as rare as the previous data would suggest. Maybe (and this is really hypothetically speaking even tho I'm using a specific game) Dragon Warrior IV is fuckin awesome and so the only people who want to sell it are people either unaware of its value or people who don't care about gaming at all and just want some cash. Then it gets re-released and more people decide to sell their copy because the new version is cheaper and graphically improved or whatever. Suddenly, there's more copies for sale than there was before.

I don't know jack shit about economics, I dropped out of college and have always sucked at math. So maybe I really don't know what I'm talking about here. But I seriously doubt I'll ever use only one source to know how rare something is, be it DP, Ebay, anecdotal evidence, or whatever.

[pseudonym]

I actually bought DW4 for $40 not long after I started collecting. I am rather pleased that it's worth roughly $40 today though. *cha-ching*


redundant.

[mobiusclimber]

I'm sure my examples and the points I made are not completely accurate and reflective of rarity ratings, but the idea behind it should be, that basically there are a ton of variables that we can't know about ahead of time that can influence a game's rarity or perceived rarity. I don't want to sound like I'm just making up outlandish circumstances where rarity data can end up being skewered, but I'm sure there are a lot of little things we haven't or aren't thinking of that affect how often a game shows up on Ebay. There are problem even certain games that, while they ARE very rare, would seem rarer than they are if they get traded/sold mostly in collector's circles as opposed to on Ebay. Again, no idea how accurate that idea is, I just know if I stumbled across something super rare and valuable, I'd post it for sale on here well before putting it up on an auction site.

And I'm just realizing how sidetracked this whole topic has become. But I guess the answer to the question has been given by now.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Even direct production numbers present problems (smaller ones than eBay for sure, but still) this far out. Landfill residents, retained ownership, ET cement foundations, hidden/unfound stock and outright user-end breakage, attrition and eventually bit-rot. The more sources that you have, the better. eBay is not God. It's a decent snapshot of 'what's presently out there' or even what tends to show up, but the last part would only pertain to eBay. I haven't noticed correlation between eBay and Amazon for instance. Then again, I've never methodically tested the hypothesis either.

[RASK1904]

Why wont companys release production numbers?

[Rickstilwell1]

I think one factor that determines high pricing is if the game is good or features a popular character. So a rare sports game is going to cost a lot less than a popular character's game of the same scarcity.

[allyourblood]

There are problem even certain games that, while they ARE very rare, would seem rarer than they are if they get traded/sold mostly in collector's circles as opposed to on Ebay.

I'd be willing to wager that the copies circulating in collector's circles have a higher probability of being the same copies being passed back and forth, than those that occasionally appear (however less frequently) on Ebay. I'm basing this on the theory that Ebay sees more unique copies over time, since it's host to large miscellaneous lots or even individual titles being sold by people who are unaware of a given game's value or status as a collectible. When that person wants to sell a game, they take it to Ebay, because they're hoping to get "market value" for it.

Ebay also provides more exposure than any handful of collector's circles could ever hope to. Even a savvy collector knows that if they want $XYZ for their super-rare game, they'll get that exposure, and likely a better chance of moving it at their asking price, on Ebay, than offering it up to a private group whose numbers likely don't rank beyond the tens of thousands.


Using DP as an example, if one watches the trading forum closely, it's not hard to find the same copy exchanging hands more than once. While that certainly occurs on Ebay as well, I figure its gargantuan membership alone would make that particular percentage much smaller than in specialized forums/groups/etc.

Ebay absolutely should not be the end-all, be-all in determining an item's rarity, but I personally think it's the single largest, most accurate source of information available today.

Sorry if the above is confusing; I have trouble putting into words what I'm trying to get across. :embarrassed:

[mobiusclimber]

Yeah that's probably true. I haven't been here, or heavily into collecting, long enough to know one way or the other. It was mostly just another hypothesis.

But then as a reseller I'm more interested in price than rarity, and that's something that really can't be predicted or determined for the long run.

[VG_Maniac]

I saw a copy of Wayne's World in the wild the other day for $3. I forgot that game is kind of rare, or else I would have bought it.

[Mysterio3000]

"In the wild" thats the funniest/video game nerdiest thing Ive ever heard!! ;)

[Pezcore343]

"In the wild" thats the funniest/video game nerdiest thing Ive ever heard!! ;)

That's a pretty standard expression around here. It just means you find it out at a local game store, pawn shop, yard sale, etc. as opposed to buying one on eBay or from another collector. It may be nerdy, but we are nerds, so I guess it's fitting ROFL

[mobiusclimber]

I always thought it made us sound like Ernest Hemingway on safari. :( "I bagged this rare Wayne's World cart in the wilds of the Burien swapmeet!"

[Landon]

As far as hobby-centric phrases go, I've always thought that "in the wild" used to describe carts found in places unrelated to gaming was one of the more illustrative, clever ones I've ever heard.

[pseudonym]

"In the asphalt jungle of the local swapmeet, the hunter spots a Stadium Events cart in the clearing resting upon the ledge. The hunter quietly moves into position, ready to make the grab, when he steps on a candy wrapper on the ground which makes a loud crunch. The Stadium Events carts looks alert and dashes away, free from the clutches of the hunter for another day...."

[Vectorman0]

Amazingly this thread turned around and doesn't feel hostile anymore. Bravo, keep it up guys & gals.


Anyways. Here's the Mike Etler one from '97. heard he owned a videogame store and just kept track of every game that came in. When I first started this was the list I used. Thanx for the help Mike. Wonder where he is?

He stops by for a NAVA meeting at the DP Store maybe once a year or so.

[nensondubois]

I often wonder how many NES carts Pitfall Harry has killed and eaten while looking for the Holy Grail Nintendo World Championships gold cart in the Amazon.

[portnoyd]

Amazingly this thread turned around and doesn't feel hostile anymore. Bravo, keep it up guys & gals.

You're welcome. ;)


He stops by for a NAVA meeting at the DP Store maybe once a year or so.

If we're lucky. NAVA now isn't that hospitable to the old guard.

[GrandAmChandler]

I GIVE THIS THREAD 4 MJPOPCORNS OUT OF A POSSIBLE 5. (Because Portnoyd can't MJpopcorn his own thread war.) It was 3 MJpopcorns, but ever since the Perkar picture, it earned 4.

http://www.forumammo.com/cpg/albums/userpics/10062/popcornic3ba6.gifhttp://www.forumammo.com/cpg/albums/userpics/10062/popcornic3ba6.gifhttp://www.forumammo.com/cpg/albums/userpics/10062/popcornic3ba6.gifhttp://www.forumammo.com/cpg/albums/userpics/10062/popcornic3ba6.gif

-GAC-

[Famidrive-16]

I think one factor that determines high pricing is if the game is good or features a popular character. So a rare sports game is going to cost a lot less than a popular character's game of the same scarcity.

I think rare sports games get overlooked because sports games are insanely common, and I'm sure that even some of the most hardcore collectors wouldn't notice a rare sports game.

Wasn't it NCAA 2k3 on Gamecube or something that had a real low production and is one of the harder games to find on the system? If I saw that in a store I'd probably miss it on first glance.

[pseudonym]

redundant.
Although I think I said this earlier though. I'm surprised this thread has lasted as long as it has. :band: