I predict carts are back next gen...

[crom]

considering that sd cards can hold up 64 gigs of space... (more than blueray) these days...

I say that next gen were gonna go back to using carts, or a form of a cart...

the reason it was ditched in the past was because carts wernt as cheap to produce as cds right?... well... how cheap is a sd card?

Im not saying its going to be sd cards, but something simular... im also guessing by not using a laser in the actual system it prolongs the life cycle of the system... cuts way back on loading times too...

I also think that, thanks to system updates, and the majority of ppl playing online these days that bootlegging can be combated with manditory updates...

the only thing holding this back are ppls need to watch dvd's on their game consoles... I actually dont think this is too much of a big deal as nintendo systems have never been able to play dvds and ppl flocked to it... who knows though...

what do you guys think?

[scooby105]

nope.

[Baloo]

No way. Cheapest format is discs right now, nobody will ever go back to carts again, unless it's a handheld.

[XYXZYZ]

I don't know about the next generation, but I've been saying for a while now that optical media is on it's way out, and that everything from movies to games to music is going to be on chip/cards. Not sure when, but if they can sell an 8 gig thumbdrive for $30, it can't be too far off.

There is also the possibility that there won't be carts or discs, everything will be downloaded.

Edit- Oh yeah, discs are really cheap... maybe the ROM revolution is farther off than I thought..

[tubeway]

No .

[BHvrd]

Well considering that the largest capacity SD Card got announced today http://gadgetwise.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/13/toshiba-announces-worlds-largest-sd-card/ (not released til spring 2010) , and will cost upwards of $200 a piece and games like Metal Gear Solid 4 are around 50GB, then that would be a pretty hard sell.

I can appreciate the way you are thinking, but even with the largest hard drives these days you wouldn't be able to store but maybe 10-20 of them!

Streaming games is what's next with services like http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2009/03/new_service_could_make_your_wii.html.

Other than streaming I don't see a more convienent or cost efficient way than as it is at this moment. Small downloadable games and physical media such as Blu-Ray and the like are here to stay for a while I believe.

[garagesaleking!!]

nope.

You said it brother.

[Pantechnicon]

Storage capacity is beside the point. The Point (from the perspective of the Money Man) is ownership, and that's why streaming content is going to be touted as the Next Great Thing.

"Oh, you wanna play Madden 2011? No no, don't get up off the couch! We will pipe the game to you. Sit back, have another dozen pizza rolls. How does, eh, $24.95 for the initial download sound? Good?! Add-ons? $4.95 per unlockable team! Okay! And how about a 49 cents per online game, yeah? See! This is easy! And when Madden 2012 comes out, we'll do it just like this again. Easy. Oh, no, 2011 will cease to function at that point. Anway, that was last year's game. Don't you want this year's game instead?"

Enjoy yourselves. I'll be over here with my old carts. No, they're not bleeding edge graphics, but they belong to me at least.

[Leo_A]

I suspect pressing each DVD and Blu-Ray disc only cost pennies for manufacturing, it's laughable to think they're going to replace them with something like a SD card that cost more than dozens of disc, with less storage capacity than just 1 blu-ray disc.

[Kim Possible]

The main problem with download media becoming the dominant form is the lack of possession. You can download something but you don't really have anything material to show for it. In Capitalist America 50% of consumption is tied to material possession. It makes the consumption more enjoyable, more satisfying. Downloads are appealing because of their ease of delivery and speed of consumption, but they lack material presence that I think will ultimately keep them one step behind material media, be it cartridge, disc, or whatever crazy futuristic shit they come up.

I'd love to see a cartridge revival, but I don't think it is coming.

[Ro-J]

I too would love to see cartridges come back, but it's a format best suited for systems designed specifically for little kids (v-tech etc.). It's not cost effective unless software durability is essential.

[otaku]

looks to me like streaming is the next big thing as well and the issue with that is well there are many issues with that

[BetaWolf47]

It would be interesting to see solid-state media make a comeback. However, it's not going to happen. Your logic is that the highest capacity memory card holds more than the common Blu-Ray discs we see common in stores. However, comparing a product used to its maximum capacity to common streetware is isn't a fair argument.

Actually, using storage cards as a comparison, period, isn't a fair argument. SD, xD, CF, and memory stick all use flash memory, while there would be no reason to use flash over EPROM on a cartridge based game. It could theoretically happen, since EPROM is much cheaper than flash, but it's highly unlikely that anyone will try it after seeing how N64 performed.

[klausien]

I personally would LOVE that because I have a borderline fetish for cartridges (what "old school" gamer doesn't?), but I'm also in the "No Way" camp. It just ain't gonna happen.

Actually, I would predict that at least one of the "Big 3" will go DLC only next gen. It is almost definite that Microsoft will. It really is the wave of the future, whether we like it or not, and is probably one of the more piracy-proof ways of doing things. It will allow them to control pricing, i.e. the current issues they have with everyone's favorite monopolistic used game retailer, and the current DLC systems out there are actually proving that people will buy a game without having it "in hand." Finally, not having a DVD/BluRay drive will lower costs in a major way on the hardware side. It's a no brainer really.

I'm over it though because I can always just walk over to the collection, grab a cartridge and let a rip at any time. I'd probably like the game better anyway... RIP "hand drawn" 2D.

[The 1 2 P]

Um....no. Not unless Neo Geo comes out with a new arcade console system.

[dendawg]

Streaming games is what's next with services like http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2009/03/new_service_could_make_your_wii.html.


Not as long as broadband ISPs have arbitrary bandwidth caps. Even with Comcast, with their generous 250GB cap, you could only download games like MGS4 only 5 times.

[chicnstu]

Storage capacity is beside the point. The Point (from the perspective of the Money Man) is ownership, and that's why streaming content is going to be touted as the Next Great Thing.

"Oh, you wanna play Madden 2011? No no, don't get up off the couch! We will pipe the game to you. Sit back, have another dozen pizza rolls. How does, eh, $24.95 for the initial download sound? Good?! Add-ons? $4.95 per unlockable team! Okay! And how about a 49 cents per online game, yeah? See! This is easy! And when Madden 2012 comes out, we'll do it just like this again. Easy. Oh, no, 2011 will cease to function at that point. Anway, that was last year's game. Don't you want this year's game instead?"

Enjoy yourselves. I'll be over here with my old carts. No, they're not bleeding edge graphics, but they belong to me at least.

Your post makes me sick, afraid, and sad all at the same time...:(

[crom]

so you guys think manufacturing sd cards are expensive?

cmon...

[Ryaan1234]

so you guys think manufacturing sd cards are expensive?

cmon...

I don't think it's because making SD cards are that expensive. I think it's because CDs are cheaper to produce. And that's just the point with the whole idea of streaming media- There's no production costs.

[Baloo]

Yeah, but you can only stream media if you have an internet connection, and since people STILL don't have internet in their homes today, they're not going to mainstream it in. Especially if it's a pay-service like Xbox live. And then there's the cap like dendawg said.

[Leo_A]

so you guys think manufacturing sd cards are expensive?

cmon...

It is compared to DVD or Blu-Ray disc. You can press dozens of DVD's for how much it cost to produce 1 two gig SD card.

They're not dirt cheap to manufacturer, it cost several times the amount to produce one SD card with limited capacity compared to multiples of disc with much greater capacities.

Putting games on SD cards of the capacity you desire would result in games that make $80 Nintendo 64 games look cheap in comparison.

SD cards are only viable for uses that require the ability to rewrite the content stored on it. It isn't a viable medium for releasing content on, it doesn't approach being cost effective.



Actually, I would predict that at least one of the "Big 3" will go DLC only next gen. It is almost definite that Microsoft will.

Hardly almost definite, maybe if the 360 isn't replaced for 10 or 15 more years. Going download only isn't yet viable, the infrastructure isn't there to support it, a drastic sudden shift would anger retailers and alienate users, and too many people are still not taking their consoles online. We'll see a definite shift with the successors to the current consoles, but the transition will be gradual. Maybe with the Xbox 1440...

[kupomogli]

FF7 on PSP2. The PSP2 will run off copy protected memory sticks. This is fact, unless it doesn't happen.

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b334/kupomogli/ff7psp2.jpg

[BHvrd]

Yeah, but you can only stream media if you have an internet connection, and since people STILL don't have internet in their homes today, they're not going to mainstream it in. Especially if it's a pay-service like Xbox live. And then there's the cap like dendawg said.

This is all true, but if it takes off you can bet that the company/ies involved will make it worthwhile to GET broadband to you at any cost.

All they have to do is pay the right people to raise the cap limits and work with providers to offer compensation. I wouldn't doubt they somehow went over their heads with claims that it cuts down on consumer waste.

Getting it "to" you is not an issue if it makes shitloads of $$$.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

Has anyone said "no" yet?

[Rickstilwell1]

All I know is that if they do switch to digital distribution sometime, they better have free demos of ALL the games so we can make sure we won't regret our purchases.

[WhatsMyUsername]

If it changes to anything, it will change to digital distribution.

[darkslime]

Nope, your idea is just wishful thinking.

I think we will totally abandon discs, carts etc in favor of digital download only. It'll be good for most games and the publishers, but a nightmare for us collectors. :(

[Rickstilwell1]

Yeah pretty much everyone will be forced to be a collector because we can't sell them back. We'll have to store all the games on external hard drives or cards like we do already for Wiiware and VC and just keep them all.

If you look at how crappy games have been becoming gameplay wise though, maybe the next stuff will be such shovelware it won't be worth collecting?

[madman77]

It could theoretically happen, since EPROM is much cheaper than flash, but it's highly unlikely that anyone will try it after seeing how N64 performed.
EPROM is cheaper than flash? Since when? The largest EPROM chips available are 4 megabyte, or 32mbit. Highly ineffective to use them as opposed to much larger flash chips for anything. At any rate....carts would never have the need to be re-writeable, so it's a pointless argument.

[crom]

we are far from digital distribution...

1. I have a bandwidth cap, Im not about to wait till next month when my bandwidth is reset just to buy a game...

dont give me this talk about cable/dsl companies coming around for the video game companies crap... in my city alone their is 5 different providers, you think that video game companies are going to toss money around to accompany our video game downloads? get real....

2. your basicly forcing ppl to pay for the internet (broadband service at that) in order to purchase your system... once again... get real

3. imagine madden selling only on bandwidth... say your average game is 6gigs... for only 1 million copies of the game you would need 32 000 Terabites for distribution... thats insane...

servers would crash, customer service numbers would be flooded.... and basing your platform on digital distribution you cant have any downtime... any... so once again get real....

to borrow from a friend of mine... "If SD cards are manufactured on a massive scale and used to the same degree as optical media, their cost of manufacture would also be next to nothing"

[Kid Ice]

I agree.

If they make carts again they can modify their DRM on the fly. As opposed to discs which are not rewritable. This will give them more control over "piracy".

It's less wear and tear on systems without a disc spinning around, which will reduce the number of systems returned for maintenance.

Leaving the optical drive out will decrease the cost of manufacturing the systems.

Forget about watching movies. Every time someone buys a $20 movie means they're not buying a $60 game. Every two hours a kid is watching a movie is 2 hours he's not buying stuff to download.

"Digital distribution" will just remain a component of the experience. They will not move to an all digital model...what is to stop them from doing that right now? They still need to sell premium $60 games at retail.

I think Nintendo will do it.

[crom]

I agree.

I think Nintendo will do it.

I agree with you...

basicly it doesnt matter what EA or activision or any other video game publisher wants...

it matters what microsoft or sony or nintendo want...

if they want a cheaper system to manufacture then thats what they will do...

nintendo will be the first to do this...

[c0ldb33r]

Um....no. Not unless Neo Geo comes out with a new arcade console system.
Goddamn, imagine the size of a neogeo cart that was 25 GB.

It'd be the size of a car.

[Az]

This is all true, but if it takes off you can bet that the company/ies involved will make it worthwhile to GET broadband to you at any cost.

Like most topics we discuss on a niche forum, what applies to us is usually not the common consensus. A lot of the speculation in this thread needs to be checked.....

Microsoft likes to throw around numbers a lot, especially about XBL membership. I've not dug around, but MS never distinguishes silver from gold members in these quotes.

Does anyone know the numbers of the current 3 console sales versus those owners who use their internet services? In other words, what percentage of Wii/PS3/360 users actually get online versus those that don't?

What percentage of the US population even has access (much less subscribes) to broadband?

[tubeway]

Goddamn, imagine the size of a neogeo cart that was 25 GB.

It'd be the size of a car.

Introducing the Volkswagen Neo Geo. Now you drive and game at the same time.

"Yo dawg, I heard you like games, so I put a game in your car so you can game while you drive."

Yes. I am aware how awful those jokes are.

[c0ldb33r]

Yes. I am aware how awful those jokes are.
http://i152.photobucket.com/albums/s182/c0ldb33r/yodawgalfie.jpg

[Bojay1997]

Like most topics we discuss on a niche forum, what applies to us is usually not the common consensus. A lot of the speculation in this thread needs to be checked.....

Microsoft likes to throw around numbers a lot, especially about XBL membership. I've not dug around, but MS never distinguishes silver from gold members in these quotes.

Does anyone know the numbers of the current 3 console sales versus those owners who use their internet services? In other words, what percentage of Wii/PS3/360 users actually get online versus those that don't?

What percentage of the US population even has access (much less subscribes) to broadband?

According to the last figures I saw, over 2/3 of the total US population who regularly uses the web does so on a broadband connection. Among gamers, I think it's probably closer to 3/4 or more since they tend to be early adopters. It's still not 100%, but it's getting closer and closer. Once that happens, I can guarantee that the big three are going to push as hard as they can to force us all to download all of our games. Since games aren't like other recorded media in the sense that they can't be shared among many different kinds of devices in different locations and of different brands, other than collectors, there will no longer really be a market for recorded video game media. I personally am done collecting when that happens.

[Hep038]

I really do not see being able to manufacturer a SD card cheaper than a disk, I do not care how many you make. I am not saying they will not go to carts, I am just saying it will not be because they can make SD cards as cheap as disks.

[backguard]

Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?

[SegaAges]

Storage capacity is beside the point. The Point (from the perspective of the Money Man) is ownership, and that's why streaming content is going to be touted as the Next Great Thing.

"Oh, you wanna play Madden 2011? No no, don't get up off the couch! We will pipe the game to you. Sit back, have another dozen pizza rolls. How does, eh, $24.95 for the initial download sound? Good?! Add-ons? $4.95 per unlockable team! Okay! And how about a 49 cents per online game, yeah? See! This is easy! And when Madden 2012 comes out, we'll do it just like this again. Easy. Oh, no, 2011 will cease to function at that point. Anway, that was last year's game. Don't you want this year's game instead?"

Enjoy yourselves. I'll be over here with my old carts. No, they're not bleeding edge graphics, but they belong to me at least.

I am so having a nightmare tonight. Thanks Pant

[DonMarco]

More than new carts, I'd bet on new optical technology for the next gen. Maybe mini-Blu Rays, like how the GameCube used mini DVDs.

The first download-only gaming system is the PSP Go, right?

[Bojay1997]

Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?

Not necessarily. Compression technology, advances in broadband and the fact that you can keep downloading the game in the background while you play the earlier levels make it actually very practical. Heck, there are already some very large games available on PSN with more on the way. One of the major reasons that some games on the PS3 are so huge is the large number of high resolution pre-rendered movies and cut scenes. Remove those and the game itself is not that big.

[Nionel]

I think discs are here to stay, at least for the time being. As far as digital distrobution is concerned, it's nice that's it's there for the people that want it, but I'm not interested myself so I could care less. All digital would be terrible anyway, I mean seriously, think about how often games that are available digitally drop in price or are on sale? Unless you're using Steam, it's just not gonna happen.

I don't think the PSP Go is gonna do well enough to warrant an all digital console, and if there ever is an all digital console, I wouldn't buy it personally, regardless of what is available on it, and what happens if all the consoles in a generation go digital? Well, then I guess I'd just be finished with modern gaming at that point.

[Greg2600]

Also, will parent's be happy about having to worry about their kid(s) downloading 20 games on the credit card you saved in the account? I don't like the idea at all. One thing's for sure, that's the end of the collector hobby for that generation of games forward, as well as businesses like Game Stop (boo hoo I know).

[Rickstilwell1]

even funnier, if the big three all went digital, maybe a little guy will come out with a physical media system to compete and it turns out to be the new #1?

[kupomogli]

Digital distribution sounds like a huge pain to me. Downloading a typical PS3 game would take what...half a day on most broadband connections? Maybe more?

You must have a terrible ISP. It took me, what, maybe 5 minutes to download and install the Batman Arkham Asylum demo.

Either that or you're running your PS3 under a wireless connection. Stop using wireless. It sucks balls, I figured that out awhile ago. Run wired, play Unreal Tournament 3 with 16 players and you'll have hardly any lag, or 12 players or less, no noticeable lag.

[Ed Oscuro]

It's possible to make storage devices that don't rotate the recording media like a disc but which aren't a traditional "cartridge" media (i.e. have moving parts), in any case it doesn't matter much 'cuz digital distribution = lower costs for everybody and a big roadblock to piracy as well.

I am stoked for SDXC cards though; I reached 1/4 the capacity of one of my SDHC cards (and 1/4 the possible length of a video) recording video for just over 5 minutes today O_o

[DeputyMoniker]

No...but I would be love the hell out of it. As long as they were at least the size of a Genny cart. Damn that would be cool.

[Bojay1997]

Also, will parent's be happy about having to worry about their kid(s) downloading 20 games on the credit card you saved in the account? I don't like the idea at all. One thing's for sure, that's the end of the collector hobby for that generation of games forward, as well as businesses like Game Stop (boo hoo I know).

There's a lot of things parents have to worry about nowadays, including saved credit card info on sites like Amazon, pay-per-view and text solicitations to buy things. Ultimately, you just have to trust your kids and maybe password protect stuff if it really becomes a problem.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Considering I was just playing Final Soldier off an SD card in my Wii... I don't see why this is such a big poo poo. I'm sure that if, somehow, this does indeed come to pass the format and form factor will be proprietary, and if anyone is going to do it it's definitely going to be Nintendo. They're the only one with a track record of making success from and money off seemingly silly ideas.

[portnoyd]

I agree.

If they make carts again they can modify their DRM on the fly. As opposed to discs which are not rewritable. This will give them more control over "piracy".

It's less wear and tear on systems without a disc spinning around, which will reduce the number of systems returned for maintenance.

Leaving the optical drive out will decrease the cost of manufacturing the systems.

Forget about watching movies. Every time someone buys a $20 movie means they're not buying a $60 game. Every two hours a kid is watching a movie is 2 hours he's not buying stuff to download.

"Digital distribution" will just remain a component of the experience. They will not move to an all digital model...what is to stop them from doing that right now? They still need to sell premium $60 games at retail.

I think Nintendo will do it.

Add in bulk manufacturing costs as mentioned earlier, and you got your winner right here. Also, Game cases can be shrunk dramatically (to DS size for all) giving retailers 2x shelf space which they will undoubtedly support.

The only negative I see is doing this would kill any chance of a next gen system having backwards compatibility. But that's what addon drives and digital downloads can help.

[Flashback2012]

Add in bulk manufacturing costs as mentioned earlier, and you got your winner right here. Also, Game cases can be shrunk dramatically (to DS size for all) giving retailers 2x shelf space which they will undoubtedly support.

The only negative I see is doing this would kill any chance of a next gen system having backwards compatibility. But that's what addon drives and digital downloads can help.

I don't think the console manufacturers are as friendly to the concept of backwards compatibility as they used to be. ;)

Sony dropped PS2 B/C out of the PS3 completely. They fiddled with it by having hardware B/C, then software emulation, then none at all. It'd be nice if the rumored PS3 slim brought it back, but I'm not holding my breath. Another example on Sony's part is the PSP Go. It ditches the UMD format completely, relying on digital downloads to your memory stick.

Microsoft seemed all too eager to drop the original Xbox like a bad habit. Because of radically different hardware architecture, near 100% B/C with original Xbox titles is a pipe dream. It would seem they're more interested in making $$$ of those titles by packaging them as Live downloads to be stored on the HDD.

Nintendo is the most "friendly" when it comes to B/C it seems, on the surface anyway. The Wii is either 100% B/C or near that for all Gamecube games and accessories but the reality is it's hardware architecture is a GC with a 2.5x increase in power, Nintendo themselves even admitting this. Their handhelds fared better in terms of B/C until the DS came onto the scene. The original DS did allow for GBA B/C but not GB or GBC. Now the DSi has removed the GBA B/C.

As for the topic on hand, with the advances in SD cards/memory sticks, it'd be nice if they went back to carts. I'd like it for no other reason than there's less moving parts in my system that have the chance to malfunction. I've had to replace Xbox, PS2, and Cube because the drives on each of them started to go out. My new Xbox is starting to do the same thing as the old one and I've held off buying the next gen systems because they don't appear any more reliable than the previous generation for the most part.

[Swamperon]

I really can't all 3 consoles going all digital in the next generation, maybe when we get to the 10th... It'll be a very risky move for which ever company tries it, and if it backfires they'd be a bit buggered. I guess the psp go will be the initial proving ground.

[Bojay1997]

I really can't all 3 consoles going all digital in the next generation, maybe when we get to the 10th... It'll be a very risky move for which ever company tries it, and if it backfires they'd be a bit buggered. I guess the psp go will be the initial proving ground.

No, I agree that we probably have one more generation of disc based consoles forthcoming. After that, however, with broadband penetration at near 100% of gamers, I seriously doubt that any recorded media will be used for games. The PS3 and 360 will probably still be available for younger and newer gamers, so I suppose budget disc games will keep coming out for them down the road. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone is talking about going back to carts on the home console side. There is really no reason to do it and discs will always be cheaper, even if only by pennies, which can be huge when you are pressing millions of copies.

[Frankie_Says_Relax]

This prediction is a "drastic" change in content delivery.

Console developers don't like drastic changes in content delivery, and the general public like them even less.

Baby steps and adherence to existing formats and industry trends are what we'll likely see in the future.

While I can see the logic in your prediction, I don't agree that we'll see it in the immediate next generation (if ever) ... and I don't think any of the current console devs have a clue what they're doing any further than the immediate future, not that they're "clueless", rather content delivery has so many varied avenues currently that they're still figuring out what would be the most profitable, effective and stable in our current global economy.

Expect to see more systems with hybrid content formats/storage moving forward. (DVD + Broadband + USB Slots + HDDs)

[Oobgarm]

Expect to see more systems with hybrid content formats/storage moving forward. (DVD + Broadband + USB Slots + HDDs)

A winner is Frankie.

[jb143]

I think I mentioned it in another thread on this subject. Holographic Data Cubes.
http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii12/jeremy_burk/data_cube.jpg
Oh, I guess that is an optical medium though. But still more cartridge like than a disc.

[Howie6925]

even funnier, if the big three all went digital,

If all Three went digital I think it would kill the video game market altogether. I dont really think nintendo would go digital beacause they are trying to sell to the casual non gamer and older folks, half of them can barley turn on a computer let alone download or search for one to download.

[jb143]

If all Three went digital I think it would kill the video game market altogether. I dont really think nintendo would go digital beacause they are trying to sell to the casual non gamer and older folks, half of them can barley turn on a computer let alone download or search for one to download.

The casual market is all about downloadable games though. Popcap, Big Fish, etc...

[Frankie_Says_Relax]

Digital distribution is growing within segments of the gaming populace to epic proportions.

Devices like the iPhone, and gaming consoles of this generation Wii, 360 and PS3 (and in smaller cases PS3 and DSi) all make substantial amounts of income via DLC games and content.

Is it enough for any company to drop the axe on brick & mortar distribution of games in the immediate next generation? I don't think so.

Well, unless you're talking about the iPhone, because that's never had physical media AND is probably the biggest money maker of the bunch.

The road ahead for this type of thing is complex and riddled with obstacles ...

I'm always interested to see where the road leads, but I don't have a hell of a clue presently which way it's going to branch or what the endgame will be ... what I do expect is for companies to experiment with things like PSP Go.

Remember, the XBOX Live Arcade Marketplace was all but a content distribution experiment added to the XBL service in it's infancy ... but now it's practically the life-blood of the console and has spawned similar services across the entire industry.

Whatever happens ... cartridge or CD, digital or physical distribution ... I'm just happy to be along for the ride and open-minded enough to roll with whatever they throw at me.

[ncman071]

next generation will be exactly like the movie "gamers" coming out next month..cant wait

[Howie6925]

The casual market is all about downloadable games though. Popcap, Big Fish, etc...

What about the hardcore market. We are getting nickel and dimed to add little add ons for games and misc other things I dont need.(clothes for my xbox360 avatar and furniture for my ps home character). Games are way to big and I cant sell it when I get bored of it,(actually with the psn you can) and old games on live for regular xbox are $15-20 when I can go to the pawn shop and get 2 for 7. Casual games you can usually find for free to play on the internet, the problem with buying them on live or psn they could be up for years without a price drop.

[Rickstilwell1]

I really can't all 3 consoles going all digital in the next generation, maybe when we get to the 10th... It'll be a very risky move for which ever company tries it, and if it backfires they'd be a bit buggered. I guess the psp go will be the initial proving ground.

Wizardry - Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord

PSP Go - Proving Grounds of the Mad Game Collector

lol

[jb143]

What about the hardcore market. We are getting nickel and dimed to add little add ons for games and misc other things I dont need.(clothes for my xbox360 avatar and furniture for my ps home character). Games are way to big and I cant sell it when I get bored of it,(actually with the psn you can) and old games on live for regular xbox are $15-20 when I can go to the pawn shop and get 2 for 7. Casual games you can usually find for free to play on the internet, the problem with buying them on live or psn they could be up for years without a price drop.

That's not what I was responding too though. I was responding to your comment about the casual gamers not even being able to turn on a computer. I do find all the casual/hardcore discussions funny though. Games are games. If a modern casual game came out on the NES back in the day instead, we'd all be collecting it and putting it on our favorites lists.

[Icarus Moonsight]

That's not what I was responding too though. I was responding to your comment about the casual gamers not even being able to turn on a computer. I do find all the casual/hardcore discussions funny though. Games are games. If a modern casual game came out on the NES back in the day instead, we'd all be collecting it and putting it on our favorites lists.

Amen and pass the salt. :D

Yes, even the tech philistines can turn on a computer... Explains why solitaire and minesweeper are some of the most played games of all time.

Eventually we could have games encoded on crystalline media (since you brought up holo-cubes, it's in the realm of fair play :p ). Really, who knows?

@crom: So, it is true that a near-death experience gives one glimpses or insights into the future?

Lightning Bolt! (http://www.digitpress.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134908)
http://static1.videosift.com/thumbs/l/ig/Lightning_Bolt_Special_FX_Edition_the_classic_LARP _sift.jpg

Sorry, had to be done. LOL

[crom]

@crom: So, it is true that a near-death experience gives one glimpses or insights into the future?

Sorry, had to be done. LOL


lol,

what got me thinking this was a couple of things...

1. I see more and more laptops shipping without any form of optical media... but with sd slots...

2. this is something that flatscreen tvs could jump all over

3. I just cant see how this...
http://podfeet.com/NosillaCast/NC_2006_08_27/micro_sd_card.jpg
cant be as cheap as cds to make if produced in bulk...

4. sd cards can hold more than blueray, can access its files faster then bluray...

................. im not saying its gonna be a sd card, but something very similar...

[Bojay1997]

lol,

what got me thinking this was a couple of things...

1. I see more and more laptops shipping without any form of optical media... but with sd slots...

2. this is something that flatscreen tvs could jump all over

3. I just cant see how this...
http://podfeet.com/NosillaCast/NC_2006_08_27/micro_sd_card.jpg
cant be as cheap as cds to make if produced in bulk...

4. sd cards can hold more than blueray, can access its files faster then bluray...

................. im not saying its gonna be a sd card, but something very similar...

I think you are seeing more and more netbooks ship without optical media drives simply because they are designed to be driven entirely by download/digital delivery, not because people are using other forms of cards or devices in lieu of discs. Despite your contentions and the size of those SD cards, they are still more expensive to produce simply because they are more complex and require greater accuracy to manufacture than disc media. That's never going to change. There's only so much cost you can cut out. It's similar to Moore's Law and just because the capability of processors keeps advancing rapidly doesn't mean that the last generation all of a sudden becomes cheap or even free to create. There is still a base cost to produce a card which doesn't go away even though the capacity doubles or triples every year. Certainly, SD cards can hold more and have quicker access times than Bluray, but the reality is that the cost differential is still too high, especially when BluRay blanks are becoming cheaper everyday.

[jb143]

Actually, Moore's Law has to do with the size of transistors getting smaller letting you fit more into a smaller space...not necessarily CPU performance. That correlates directly with memory density growing. And yes, memory does cost more than discs but I think that data storage will win out in the end. Games are getting bigger and bigger and there's only so much you imprint with a laser. That's why they went to blue-ray because it has a shorter wavelength letting you fit more on a disc...you can't just keep doing that though, there's physical limitations. Moore's Law was actually an argument I used before about why digital distribution only is still very far off. The memory requirements and capacity for games will only continue to grow yet physical limitations won't allow download speeds to keep up. People are not going to want to wait a week to download their game when technology will offer new and better solutions. Of course only time will tell who's right in the end.

[crom]

but the reality is that the cost differential is still too high, especially when BluRay blanks are becoming cheaper everyday.

see, I remember 2-3 years ago when a 1 TB hard drive went for $500 and now they are going for $100

one more point... digital cameras....

were not talking about HD-dvd's or betamax here... were talking about the universal format for all digital cameras...

what was the sales figures for digital camera last year? something like $25 billion dollars world wide I read somewhere....

my freakin cell phone has a sd slot in it...

if I was talking about some new format that isnt around yet, like hollographic cubes, then yeah, Id probably agree that its nonesence...

manufacturing cost are nothing, it will come down with time...

[maxlords]

It's only maybe two or three more generations before we see all digital content with no physical media. In the meantime, high capacity blu-rays are the cheapest for storage media to produce, so don't expect a shift away from em soon. Between those and flash memory...I expect that the multi-access system will be around for another couple generations...till most everyone has high-speed...then physical media will be a thing of the past.

It's only a matter of time because companies are realizing how much control they FINALLY have over their IPs through digital. Look at Amazon and that kindle fiasco. You'll see the same thing with other systems soon. They'll be watching.

[portnoyd]

It's only maybe two or three more generations before we see all digital content with no physical media. In the meantime, high capacity blu-rays are the cheapest for storage media to produce, so don't expect a shift away from em soon. Between those and flash memory...I expect that the multi-access system will be around for another couple generations...till most everyone has high-speed...then physical media will be a thing of the past.

I don't think physical media will ever go away. Removing physical media removes retailers from the equation and they won't let that happen without making a monstrous shitfit about it.

Frankie kinda wins the thread. It'll be a little bit of everything to suck our wallets dry.

[Bojay1997]

Actually, Moore's Law has to do with the size of transistors getting smaller letting you fit more into a smaller space...not necessarily CPU performance. That correlates directly with memory density growing. And yes, memory does cost more than discs but I think that data storage will win out in the end. Games are getting bigger and bigger and there's only so much you imprint with a laser. That's why they went to blue-ray because it has a shorter wavelength letting you fit more on a disc...you can't just keep doing that though, there's physical limitations. Moore's Law was actually an argument I used before about why digital distribution only is still very far off. The memory requirements and capacity for games will only continue to grow yet physical limitations won't allow download speeds to keep up. People are not going to want to wait a week to download their game when technology will offer new and better solutions. Of course only time will tell who's right in the end.

You're living in a very past and present world view of broadband speeds. Companies like AT&T and Verizon are spending billions of dollars enhancing fiber optic capabilities in many urban areas to achieve massive increases in broadband speed. Within the next five years, I believe that many households which now get DSL or Cable Internet will move up to this higher speed service, making downloading just about everything the most viable way to get media of all forms.

There's also only so much data you can put into a game, just like any other form of media. People don't make many eight hour movies, even though it is theoretically possible, but it's just not a viable business model. As far as I know, there isn't actually a game anywhere on the planet that comes close to filling an entire dual layer Blu Ray at 50GB. Yes, MGS IV was rumored to come close but most of it wasn't game data, it was video cut scenes that weren't compressed very efficiently. Several manufacturers have done test runs of multi-later discs that can hold up to 200 GB. As long as Blu Ray offers this much capacity, there is absolutely no reason to move away from disc media. Heck, most Xbox 360 and Wii games on regular DVD Rom discs don't even fill a full disc, let alone two.

I know people want to engage in this wishful speculation, but there is just no valid business reason to switch over to non-disc media. Game publishers benefit from the millions of dollars replication houses have spent building facilities for the DVD and audio CD industry and there is a massive capability there that keeps unit costs low. There is no such capacity on either the manufacturing or replication side for card media and there probably never will be.

[tubeway]

Next on the Digital Press gaming forum:

"I Predict Paddle Controllers Will Become the Dominant Style of Gaming Controller"

[Icarus Moonsight]

I'm sorry, but never? Blu-Ray will not be utilized on non-Sony gaming platforms (the licensing of a proprietary format will ensure that) and DVD is about ready to give up the ghost... Something is going to change (has too really) and it will change to a format that isn't currently mass-produced (possibly multiple new formats). You are aware that you are arguing against all evidence past and present, yes? If reality operated as you propose then why am I posting this on an internet forum through Wi-Fi broadband and not a dial-up BBS, or why am I using a notebook PC and not a desktop or tower, or why do I have this tiny phone in my pocket when the one I grew up with on the kitchen wall worked, or why do we have video screens and cable/satalite when radio came first and the production of radios were well established and much cheaper and still are?

[Bojay1997]

I'm sorry, but never? Blu-Ray will not be utilized on non-Sony gaming platforms (the licensing of a proprietary format will ensure that) and DVD is about ready to give up the ghost... Something is going to change (has too really) and it will change to a format that isn't currently mass-produced (possibly multiple new formats). You are aware that you are arguing against all evidence past and present, yes? If reality operated as you propose then why am I posting this on an internet forum through Wi-Fi broadband and not a dial-up BBS, or why am I using a notebook PC and not a desktop or tower, or why do I have this tiny phone in my pocket when the one I grew up with on the kitchen wall worked, or why do we have video screens and cable/satalite when radio came first and the production of radios were well established and much cheaper and still are?

Yes, but your argument falls apart when you consider that the basic infrastructure and protocols of the Internet aren't any different whether you are using a brand new wi-fi broadband connection or a dial-up modem from 1993, and similarly, a notebook PC is just a tower in a smaller package. Technologies like cable and satellite are well over thirty years old and not much different than when they started. It's not like people regularly come along in the technology world and throw everything out the window and try something completely new. Most computer and video game products are evolutionary versions of what we have been using since the 1970s. Heck, disc storage has been the standard for computers for over 30 years now whether it was magnetic or optical. Even game consoles with the exception of handhelds and Nintendo have been optical disc based for the last three generations.

I believe we are at the maturation point for video games right now, much like film was in the 1930s and television was in the 1960s and computers were in the 1990s. There isn't some video standard replacement for HDTV on the horizon and everyone is pretty much on-board with how audio is handled and how games are made. I am convinced that this really will be a much longer console cycle, partially because of the economy, but also because there just isn't a compelling technological reason to move on just yet. The most successful console company out there is basically selling a device that is a full generation behind the other two.

You're mistaken about who actually controls the licensing of Blu Ray. Sony might have its name on some of the patents along with Pioneer, but they don't get to control who actually can use the format. Any technology company can license it and all of the major studios, many of whom already release home video content on Blu Ray and have video game development studios, are members of the group that actually handles marketing and licensing of Blu Ray technology.

You're probably not aware of this, but every DVD device sold results in a licensing fee being paid to Sony along with several other companies. So, every Wii, Xbox 360 and any other consumer device with a DVD drive in it results in revenue to Sony anyway. Similarly, if you decide to use SD card technology in a device, a licensing fee has to be paid to Panasonic and several other companies. It's not like these licensing fees are a real deterrent to non-Sony video game manufacturers, especially now that the format war has been determined decisively. Whatever is cheapest and most popular with consumers that also protects against piracy is what the big three will continue to back going forward.

DVD isn't even close to giving up the ghost. In fact, it wasn't all that many years ago that games for the PC were still being released on multiple CD-Roms. Until games get so large that they are regularly requiring multiple DVDs (i.e. more than the 3-4 discs that even the largest games fill now), nobody is going to give up on DVD as a cheap and universal format. Most new desktop and laptop PCs still come with a DVD drive stock. The ones that don't are designed to download everything, not to read stuff off cards.

Could another disc format come along down the road for use in video game consoles? Possibly, but again, until games are so large that they can't fit within existing disc storage, there really is no reason for anyone to make a switch. I truly believe that the next switch will be to download only devices and consoles. There really is no reason for cards or cartridges as a stop-gap measure, especially if DVD and Blu Ray continue to be viable home video formats.