It's been 5 years, and no ones talking 'next gen' yet.

[diskoboy]

Usually, after a console generation 5 year mark, we begin hearing talk about the new consoles in development.

It's been pretty quiet, here on the gaming front, lately.

When do you think we'll start hearing talk of a new Xbox, or a PS4? Nintendo is talking about upgrading the Wii for HDTV's, but thats not much of an upgrade, IMO... It's just bringing the Wii up to current gen standards.

What gives?

[Flippy8490]

I think the game companies have kind of hit a wall in terms of pushing new hardware on people. The game platforms available are pretty powerful as they are, so pushing a console that can only do a few extra things (i.e very minimally improved graphics/processing) would not be profitable for the companies because nobody would be inclined to buy it.

For example, the jump from 8-bit to 16 was HUGE in the 90's, and the jump from the N64/PS1/Dreamcast era to the GCN/XBOX/PS2 was a big improvement in processors/video. But the current gen to something newer would be a very small change, so....why fix what isn't broken?

...or something like that lol.

[Snapple]

I don't really have room for a new console. I hope we kinda stop right here.

If they could fix the failure rate on the 360s, PS3 and Xbox 360 can stay around as long as they want, as far as I'm concerned.

[BHvrd]

I think the game companies have kind of hit a wall in terms of pushing new hardware on people. The game platforms available are pretty powerful as they are, so pushing a console that can only do a few extra things (i.e very minimally improved graphics/processing) would not be profitable for the companies because nobody would be inclined to buy it.

For example, the jump from 8-bit to 16 was HUGE in the 90's, and the jump from the N64/PS1/Dreamcast era to the GCN/XBOX/PS2 was a big improvement in processors/video. But the current gen to something newer would be a very small change, so....why fix what isn't broken?

...or something like that lol.

I agree. I would not be inclined to purchase anything "new" at this point as what I have now is still perfectly fine. Another 5 years and i'll feel like my investment was worth what I have spent. I also agree that "technological limits" have been pretty much tapped out atm.

I don't think they have plans of necessarily offering new hardware as much as "upgrading" the current genertaion. We still have Natal and PS3 Motion Control around the corner. If anything Nintendo needs to do catchup at this point.

[ncman071]

the only real "next gen" talk i've heard is just the new 360 perephrial...natal or whatever....it looks neat with not using controllers at all, but just seems more gimmecky than anything else.

personally, i dont really want any new system to come out right now...seems to me that the 360/ps3/wii are putting out some really good games and i just want that trend to continue....i'd like to see improvments in the software than the hardware.

[badinsults]

Yeah, basically Microsoft's Natal project is considered their "next" console launch, though it uses the same hardware as the Xbox 360. I imagine it will be the same with Sony's motion controller, though who knows how that will pan out. I'm sure that Nintendo will push out some sort of updated console that pushes the Wii to be able to go 720p, but I don't think they are in any rush considering that the Wii's sales are still up there.

Basically, it comes down to Nintendo being right about the last generation, that consoles have pretty much maxed out the computing power necessary to make games look better. From now on, it is all about other hardware aspects, which is why they made the Wii motion controller.

[Orion Pimpdaddy]

People say they woudn't buy a new system right now, but I bet if they saw something that was much more graphical than the current gen they would buy it in a heartbeat.

I do think there's been quite a slowdown in the jump to new systems. There's many reasons that I an think of. Hasn't Silicon Valley slowed down in their advancement of processors? Also, I think with the abillity to "upgrade" the systems through system updates, they can advance things with improved dashboards and such. Also, there's so much money being made with the online play, downloadable games, etc. that it would be exhausting and costly to move people to a new system.

I wish Sega would jump in and surprise everyone with the Sega Phoenix system, packed with Nights Into Dreams 3, but thats just a fanboy's dream.

[joshnickerson]

Lord, it just seems like we started this generation (waiting a year after launch to buy a DS and a Wii probably didn't help matters). With graphical power pretty much as far as it can go, there really isn't a reason to introduce another generation in the near future.

Maybe in another five years or so.


We still have Natal and PS3 Motion Control around the corner. If anything Nintendo needs to do catchup at this point.

Actually, it seems like Sony and Microsoft are the ones trying to catch up with Nintendo. LOL

[NoahsMyBro]

I'm right now trying to figure out how to justify purchasing a used PS3, so I haven't even joined in with THIS generation yet.

On the one hand that makes me want the industry to NOT forge ahead, as I'd feel left behind and have fewer options regarding buying media and accessories for my system.

On the other hand, if they'd release new systems I'd probably be able to purchase a PS3 for a lot less.

Pros and Cons everywhere.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Wii is dead. Didn't you hear? Nintendo will be software only by the end of the year.

Really, we don't need this 'next gen' crap talk... remember the past? PS3 was supposed to kick everything's ass in existence, guaranteed. LOL

[Damaramu]

Yeah, I'm not ready for "next gen" yet. I'm quite satisfied with what is available NOW. I'm rocking the Wii/360 combo and looking to pick up a PS3 soon...so yeah. Not ready, not by a long shot.

[udisi]

I'm in no rush either for the next gen. I don't need a new system for another FPS with slightly better lighting or graphics.

I'm wondering if we may not see more nintendoish minor system upgrades over the next few years. Kinda like how Nintendo has done the DS, then the DS lite, DSI, soon to be the DSI xl.

Maybe we'll see a redesigned 360 with some more built in components. or PS3 with upgrades, Nintendo add HD support. Small changes rather than a whole platform launch.

[Cloud121]

I read this months ago on either Gamasutra or Edge Online (Can't remember), but it was reported that for Sony's next console, they're going to use the Cell again, and just upgrade it a bit, ala the Gekko CPU.

Makes sense. After all, why spend over five years developing the chip, then only use it in just one mass market device for a few years? Also, there is the technological wall that has been brought up numerous times.

[Trumpman]

I mean, have you guys seen Crysis on PC? Consoles could definitely be much more powerful, as some graphics on 360 look pretty dated to me now. I do think that this generation will be longer, though, and I don't think the next one will be out until 2012 or 2013.

[pepharytheworm]

I could careless, the only curent gen system I own is the Wii and thats only because its a godsend for retro gamers who want something new. I mostly stick to the older stuff. I say if you want a next gen console just buy a super upgraded computer.

[Nature Boy]

My person, totally based off the top of my head opinion, is that the publishers have taken a long look at the console life cycle and seen that they can milk what they've got for much longer than 5 years, rather than worry about beating the other guy to market.

Market Share fanboyism aside, all three parties seem to be doing well and making money. Why upset the applecart?

My guess is that Natal is the next Xbox, and Wii HD or whatever is the next Nintendo release. Low cost to them and they leverage what they already have which is successful. Makes sense to me.

[Swamperon]

I do remember hearing that developers were saying they had reached the limit of what they could do with the 360 but I'm not sure how true this is. I'm guessing the next big thing in gaming will be 3D gaming, but that requires everyone to have 3D capable TV's and that's really a good 5 years away at least.

I suppose the next logical step for Microsoft would be to launch an a console with Natal intergrated, with it being a slight upgrade from the 360 a la GC - Wii. I could see this happening in 2011 or 2012.

Nintendo is the most obvious choice for being the first contender to launch the next gen. An upgrade to HD, Motionplus integrated into wiimote, improved online service etc are all obvious next steps for the Wii 2. But there's no need as the Wii is still selling like mad. Give it another year or so, and when everyone has a HD TV, I'm thinking we'll see the Wii's successor in 2011. Probably in time for christmas.

The PS3 is finally picking up speed and cost Sony a lot so they're also in no hurry to release the PS4. Plus they've stated the PS3 will be here for 10 years, so theoretically until 2017. However, if Nintendo and Microsoft release their next consoles, it could seem like Sony are standing still and the PS3 outdated and therefore pressure Sony to release the PS4 (big if though).

I think 2011 will be when we start hearing the first real rumbles about the next generation. Also the next gen of handhelds are likely to launch before their bigger brothers. Nintendo has already started talking about the successor to the DS.

[chrisbid]

good, there should be no talk of next gen until the current gen can get hardware prices down to 99 dollars

i have zero interest in a 1000 dollar next gen console, and seeing how well the ps3 did at 600 dollarls, the general public doesnt have an interest either

[vivaeljason]

I think part of it is that there isn't a lot of room to improve upon in terms of processing power. The only likely update to game format that would normally come with a system upgrade is through internet download, which all three systems are capable of and already do in some capacity (albeit with simpler games). Unless the plan is to go to 3D (a la the new ESPN channel), I don't see anywhere else to go.

The other part is that for the better part of the last year and a half, the economy of one of the largest video game markets was really suffering (and things weren't too much better elsewhere last year). Chances are that the Big 3 looked at the situation and decided to hold off until things improve. I won't be surprised if this year's E3 includes at least one announcement regarding a new Xbox or PS4.

[scooterb23]

I do not see myself keeping up with a next generation of video gaming. It's hard enough for me to get interested in this generation.

I basically hate first-person shooters, I don't do RPGs, and most everything else is basically a copy of something I've got on some other system. My 360 collection is basically at sports and racing games, Guitar Hero, and Lego stuff, and a few other games here and there I sort of like.

[vivaeljason]

I do not see myself keeping up with a next generation of video gaming. It's hard enough for me to get interested in this generation.

I basically hate first-person shooters, I don't do RPGs, and most everything else is basically a copy of something I've got on some other system. My 360 collection is basically at sports and racing games, Guitar Hero, and Lego stuff, and a few other games here and there I sort of like.

I echo these sentiments completely, hence why I've gotten into vintage game collecting. I find myself only playing things like Smackdown vs. Raw or sports games on the 360. I barely touch the Wii, save for occassionally dusting off a first party game. I think those of us not into FPS's (or, for the Wii, "casual" gaming) are being left out in the cold this generation.

[duffmanth]

I think Sony helped put an end to the traditional 5 year console life cycle with the PS1 and PS2, and that's why there hasn't been much talk about "next gen" right now. This current generation of console gaming is going to last longer than previous ones I think? Because the current systems are so computer like now and have loads of power and online capabilities, I think their life cycles will be extended through software updates and hardware additions like Natal and motion sensing.

There's so many people that have just got onboard with this console gen, that it be would stupid for a new round of consoles to launch any time soon. The PS3 is just starting to hit its stride in the last 6 months or so, the 360 has Natal on the way and still has tons of games coming. I think the Wii is going to be the system that is going to be replaced first though. It doesn't have the power and capabilities to compete with the PS3 and 360, and as HD becomes more the norm, I think the Wii is gonna get left behind.

[heybtbm]

Just release a HD Wii with decent storage and I'll be happy. The 360 and PS3 are perfect as is.

Besides, developers can barely afford to make current-gen games right now. Why would they want to push those costs even higher? Nope, "Next Gen" isn't happening anytime soon.

[Trebuken]

I think then upgrade to the Wii will be a new, fully compatible, console, with HD. They need more power under the hood. Likely to include something innovative as well.

I unfortunately suspect Natal will not wait fot the next Xbox, but will arrive for Christmas 2010, with perhaps Fable 3...

Consoles profit most in after the first couple of years and I think after the costs and hardware failure rates of this generation we will see an attempt to maximize that potential, and prepare for the costs of the next gen consoles -- what happens to Natal if you add in 3D gaming? Will it still integrate well? Maybe the two techs will be the next gen...

Anyways I can wait as well. I'm a PC Gamer and current games are not really challenging the hardware the way they should be - and since I current PC trumps a console (espeacially with nVidia's new CPU's coming) I think developers have not maxed out what they can do this generation yet.

E3 is not that far away...

[diskoboy]

Wow. What weirds me out, is I was totally expecting all the "I'm not ready for the next gen, yet" comments.

I'd give it about another 2 years, myself.

My guess is Sony still has a good 3-4 year shelf life with the PS3, and I assume if MS does start to work on another console, they'll wanna do riggorous testing to make sure they dont have the failure rates of the 360. So I'm sure they're gonna spend alot of time on the design process.

[calistarwind]

A lot of it as people have touched on is that all these companies minus Nintendo are just now getting into the black on selling their systems. Software companies are laying people off because there are too many games flooding the market and people just don't have the money to take a chance on the uncertain titles. Most people just this past year were able to jump into this generation of gaming and so to them it is year one with a ton of gaming to catch up on.

I see it first hand everyday and it is getting harder to justify an extra dollar here and there. Nintendo is going the route they know best and making tons of add ons that never see more than one or two games of use. I think were beginning to see more of that effort from the big 3 because it is all mostly profit.

[kedawa]

I'm surprised so many here actually think that the current gen systems are somehow the apex of computer technology. The 360 and PS3 were bog standard hardware the day they were released, and the Wii... well, we all know it was never anything but a modified Gamecube.

Most games can't even produce 1080p visuals at 60fps, which means they aren't even taking full advantage of the HD video format. 3D shutter glasses, which seem to finally be making real inroads in the market, require a steady 120Hz framerate. Nevermind the fact that all of the lighting and surface rendering techniques being used in games today are just clever tricks designed to hide how simplistic the graphics rendering really is.

Graphics aren't the only thing that would be improved by having more powerful processors, either. Most modern games have adaquate graphics anyway, but the physics and AI are a joke. I don't see the point of striving for photorealistic visuals when the actual mechanics of the games have barely improved over what we had on the last generation of systems. Most games that are touted as realistic are just heavily scripted and have pre-rigged models for anything destructible. With the right middleware and powerful enough hardware, game development might actually get easier in the next generation.

All of the advanced motion tracking gimmicks that are being hyped at the moment take their share of processing resources in order to function quickly enough for gaming, too.

I'm not in any rush to have a new generation of consoles, mostly because I hate what the current generation has done to gaming, but there is ample technological justification for an upgrade.

[XYXZYZ]

Also consider that Microsoft packed 360 with the technology required to take gaming to the next technical level, and the damn things just didn't work and they melted themselves. PS3 brought us the latest gaming technology in a much more stable package, but the damn things were $600.00.

If the market does require that new consoles debut every five years, I shudder to think of the clusterfuck of failures and ridiculous prices the new hardware would have trying to outdo the last generation this early.

[Flack]

Sixth-gen gave us DVD games and online play. Seventh-gen (current) gave us Blu-ray/HD-DVD, HD video, and default wireless controllers. I'm not really sure what Eighth-Gen plans on offering us. I almost see a "7.5" gen coming, where everything equals out -- Microsoft and Sony add motion controls like the Wii's, and the Wii adds HD video like the PS3/360. That's pretty common, I think. I remember a lot more exclusive titles near the beginning of the sixth-gen race than near the end.

But yeah, I'm not sure what next-gen is supposed to offer us. Better graphics? I don't really think the problem with the current-gen is the graphics. I know there's a push right now with 3D stuff but that's a fad. I could see more interactivity but that's not enough of a technology push to launch another generation of consoles.

I know it doesn't always work like this, but I paid twice as much for my launch PS3 as I did for my launch PS2, so I'm kind of hoping it remains current-gen twice as long. Wishful thinking, I know.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

I'm with most everyone, because I too am not ready for another generation. The Wii would be great with an HD upgrade, and maybe Microsoft could do well with a standard Blu-Ray drive (although I don't think microsoft will add one this gen). But thats it. I think many people wouldn't mind some minor updates to the current gen consoles, but don't want whole new systems.

[Bojay1997]

I'm surprised so many here actually think that the current gen systems are somehow the apex of computer technology. The 360 and PS3 were bog standard hardware the day they were released, and the Wii... well, we all know it was never anything but a modified Gamecube.

Most games can't even produce 1080p visuals at 60fps, which means they aren't even taking full advantage of the HD video format. 3D shutter glasses, which seem to finally be making real inroads in the market, require a steady 120Hz framerate. Nevermind the fact that all of the lighting and surface rendering techniques being used in games today are just clever tricks designed to hide how simplistic the graphics rendering really is.

Graphics aren't the only thing that would be improved by having more powerful processors, either. Most modern games have adaquate graphics anyway, but the physics and AI are a joke. I don't see the point of striving for photorealistic visuals when the actual mechanics of the games have barely improved over what we had on the last generation of systems. Most games that are touted as realistic are just heavily scripted and have pre-rigged models for anything destructible. With the right middleware and powerful enough hardware, game development might actually get easier in the next generation.

All of the advanced motion tracking gimmicks that are being hyped at the moment take their share of processing resources in order to function quickly enough for gaming, too.

I'm not in any rush to have a new generation of consoles, mostly because I hate what the current generation has done to gaming, but there is ample technological justification for an upgrade.


Strongly agree. Anyone who has played a current game on a high end PC knows there is a lot that can be done to make a whole new generation of consoles worth picking up. There are really just two reasons why this generation will probably go an extra two years beyond the traditional five years and that's the economy and the losses both Microsoft and Sony experienced early in this generation. Other than picking up a new Nintendo handheld or a new HD Nintendo console for under $300, I doubt you could get the general public to buy a $400-$500 new MS or Sony console right now. The economy is just in really, really rough shape and that is the only reason the next generation will be delayed.

[j_factor]

I'm not totally itching for a next gen myself, but I'd like to point out that a lot of what you guys are saying are things that I was thinking five years ago.

Also, it's only the very beginning of 2010. Xbox 360 launched near the end of 2005. It ain't been five years yet, only four years and a couple months. Remember, we didn't really hear about the 360 until a few months before its launch. If we still haven't heard anything by the end of this year, that'll be something.

A different way of looking at duration would be to note that 3DO launched in 1993, Dreamcast launched in 1999, and Xbox 360 launched in 2005. So the first console of the next generation isn't due until 2011. If nothing else, I do predict "Wii HD" will come in 2011. But I really hope it's more than just the Wii augmented with the ability to output HD resolutions.

[Orion Pimpdaddy]

You gotta figure with the size and resources of these companies, that they are creating the next system right now, in some back room somewhere. They'd be stupid not to continue to develop their technology in the face of such competition.

Of course, if that info leaked out, they'd stunt their own sales as people would say "I'm holding out for the Wii 2."

By the way, I think the next generation will be 100% download-only games, not discs or cartridges. No more box art, etc.

I also want to point out that I have never played a PS3 or an X-Box 360. I'm 95% old school with a little bit of Wii added in.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

By the way, I think the next generation will be 100% download-only games, not discs or cartridges. No more box art, etc.


Not possible. There are many sections of the country where high speed internet isn't available.

[kedawa]

You gotta figure with the size and resources of these companies, that they are creating the next system right now, in some back room somewhere. They'd be stupid not to continue to develop their technology in the face of such competition.
The technology is all developed by IBM, Nvidia, and AMD/ATI nowadays anyhow, so the console giants don't really have to do much until the market is ready. Sony doesn't even bother with middleware development until the last minute, it seems.

Not possible. There are many sections of the country where high speed internet isn't available.
Right, because hardly anyone lives there. Even if somehow the broadband situation doesn't improve over the next couple of years, I doubt Sony or MS are going to include optical drives just so some insignificant percentage of rural americans aren't left out.

[j_factor]

Right, because hardly anyone lives there. Even if somehow the broadband situation doesn't improve over the next couple of years, I doubt Sony or MS are going to include optical drives just so some insignificant percentage of rural americans aren't left out.

I still don't see it happening yet. Even on a relatively speedy cable connection, a 25GB download will take quite a chunk of time. And if you think it takes a while already, just wait until your connection gets throttled.

[Fuyukaze]

I dont believe companies can afford to launch a next gen system these days. Maybe in 3-4 years we may see some new systems but right now the market's not ready and the expense of developing new hardware isnt justified. For all the top notch specs the 360 and PS3 have, they are still taking second and third to a system like the Wii.

[Breetai]

By the way, I think the next generation will be 100% download-only games, not discs or cartridges. No more box art, etc.Zero percent chance of that happening. If anything, we might start to see dual hard and soft copies of games being releases with perhaps the soft copies being released a week or so before the hard copies. IF (big, big, big IF) they try to phase hard copies out, it will take another couple of console generations. It would be at least the 9th generation, more likely 10th, before it's downloadables only.

[kedawa]

I still don't see it happening yet. Even on a relatively speedy cable connection, a 25GB download will take quite a chunk of time. And if you think it takes a while already, just wait until your connection gets throttled.
Yeah, I'm not really sure how it would work.
It's possible that you could start playing the game before it's fully downloaded, which would just require proper prioritization of files.
The games could also just download portions as needed, which would suck since you'd need to be online at all times.
Maybe they'd simply have to be archived with some high ratio compression.
There's also the outside chance of one of those remote gaming networks actually becoming viable, although that wouldn't require more powerful hardware than what we have now.
Another thing to keep in mind is that a console maker could cut a deal with the cable and phone companies for higher throughput for their service, possibly even selling their system as a subsidized set-top box.

[Flack]

I was actually thinking about this the other day. What if GameStop, Walmart and a few other authorized distribution centers could download the game, and then you could just take your hard drive (in some sort of removable caddy) to the store and have the game downloaded to you there. Not for everybody, but as an alternative for people without hi-speed Internet access ...

[The 1 2 P]

I have a 360 and Wii and I'm definitely not ready for the "next" next gen to happen yet. I haven't even bought a PS3 yet, although this will most likely happen after the next price drop. Like others have said, this gen has atleast another 2-4 years left in it. Natal and Sony's wand will keep them in the game a few more years and Nintendo will eventually upgrade their last gen graphics with an HD solution.

As for the upcoming 3D gaming that the PS3 will support, I'm sure that it's just another fad. I don't even like watching movies with 3D glasses on so I'm definitely not playing games with them on. Console graphics this gen(not including the Wii) already look good enough and I don't even think that the 360 has been maxed out yet. The PS3 obviously isn't maxed out yet and I can only imagine how good the next Uncharted will look.

As much as I like my favorite game series, theres no way in hell I'd buy a new system if it launched within the next two years. If they want to start talking about it in a year or so, thats perfectly fine. But right now all my gaming money is going towards this generation.

[Swamperon]

You gotta figure with the size and resources of these companies, that they are creating the next system right now, in some back room somewhere. They'd be stupid not to continue to develop their technology in the face of such competition.

Well of course they are. Nintendo have repeatedly stated they start work on the next console as soon as the current one has launched. I presume it's the same for Microsoft and Sony.

I imagine these consoles stay as nothing but drawings and ideas for the first few years but they are being permanently worked on.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

I was actually thinking about this the other day. What if GameStop, Walmart and a few other authorized distribution centers could download the game, and then you could just take your hard drive (in some sort of removable caddy) to the store and have the game downloaded to you there. Not for everybody, but as an alternative for people without hi-speed Internet access ...

I actually hadn't thought about this before. Digital Distribution would be feasible under this method. It would actually be bandwidth friendly, because the store would only have to download a single copy. Of course with Wal-Mart making many many copies off a single, there'd be anti piracy issues to work out.

I still don't see that happening next generation though, as there haven't been any details hammered out for an alternative type distribution. But this solution makes the most sense.

But anyway, Digital Distribution isn't going to work until our data infrastructure is improved. Completely going digital (household to household) would probably severely tax our iinformation infrastructure, especially when some games need in excess of 10gb of storage space. How quick would all those 60gb hard drives fill up? I'm already out of space on our 40gb PS3 and those aren't even full games. Unless Microsoft and Sony (and Nintendo) start including affordable 300 GB+ Hard drives standard, then thats another strike against digital distribution.

By The Way, How is the PSPGo doing?

[crazyjackcsa]

Too me, it seems as if none of the companies are prepared to fire the first shot.

Previous generations seem to get kicked started by one company (It used to be Sega). This generation got it's start (most said to early) by Microsoft, who perceived some weakness in the PS2 brand.

So lets see, who is going to start the "Next Gen"?

Nintendo:
The big N is back on top in a big way, love the company or not, there is no denying they are making money hand over fist. As long as that continues, there is no need for another console, the strategy would be to prolong this generation as much as possible.

Sony:
After a rough start, the PS3 is making ground. Software is up, and the hardware is finally pushing some good numbers. Why pull the plug when things are finally coming together?

Microsoft: They are #2 Worldwide, and the #1 HD console. After a huge debacle pushing the 360 out the door early, they probably don't want to make the same mistake twice.

So really, why bother a new generation? As was stated, any talk of the next system leads to people not buying the current consoles.

[Flack]

I actually hadn't thought about this before. Digital Distribution would be feasible under this method. It would actually be bandwidth friendly, because the store would only have to download a single copy. Of course with Wal-Mart making many many copies off a single, there'd be anti piracy issues to work out.

I still don't see that happening next generation though, as there haven't been any details hammered out for an alternative type distribution. But this solution makes the most sense.

In my theoretical model, the copies the distribution centers like Walmart got were encrypted, and could only be installed with a working credit card number. There are actually lots of ways around this. Another way would be that the copies they install on your hard drive wouldn't work until you get home and activate it over the phone ... like some sort of challenge/response key. I dunno, those companies are pretty smart, lol.

[kedawa]

I don't see why it should be any different than XBLA games. The whole game can sit on the hard drive, but only function as a demo until authorized. Even the slowest internet connection can handle that part.

[Ed Oscuro]

Answer to thread:

It's the economy, stupid

(and no, diskoboy is not stupid, just a junkie, whatever that means)

There is a lot I'd like to see out of "next-gen;" hey, at least it looks like we'll dodge the bullet of that streaming video gaming thing. And maybe the 360 will become a borderline reliable console through endless hardware revisioning.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

In my theoretical model, the copies the distribution centers like Walmart got were encrypted, and could only be installed with a working credit card number. There are actually lots of ways around this. Another way would be that the copies they install on your hard drive wouldn't work until you get home and activate it over the phone ... like some sort of challenge/response key. I dunno, those companies are pretty smart, lol.

Patent that shit.

Seriously though, this would be the only way to go to a digital distribution model next generation. But there's not been any serious chatter about something like this, that I know of. It seems as if all the bloggers and tech writers are married to the idea of video game companies foregoing retail outlets and piping the game directly into the household. All the consoles would need massive hard drives though, even for the Wal-mart style model.

[Nature Boy]

I'm not totally itching for a next gen myself, but I'd like to point out that a lot of what you guys are saying are things that I was thinking five years ago.

I remember five years ago talking about the new gen that was about to be unleashed, and yeah, a lot of people here were saying pretty much the same things: I don't like current gen games anyway, graphics already look really great, etc, etc, etc.

These are forums based largely on retro gaming so it really shouldn't be surprising that a lot of us think that way.

This gen has brought us a lot of cool things: I personally love stuff like 1 vs 100, XBLA games in general (would we have gotten something like Braid on a PS2?), and online gaming (something I didn't touch last gen, said I couldn't be bothered, and now don't think I could live without). I'm not a fan of it, but the motion control stuff is cool too.

Did I imagine any one of these things would be part of this generation prior to it's coming of age? No way. And because of that I can't wait for the next gen: who knows what new thinking can bring.

[duffmanth]

I dont believe companies can afford to launch a next gen system these days. Maybe in 3-4 years we may see some new systems but right now the market's not ready and the expense of developing new hardware isnt justified. For all the top notch specs the 360 and PS3 have, they are still taking second and third to a system like the Wii.

I don't know what M$ and Nintendo's plans are, but it'll probably be at least 3-4 years until Sony launches a new console. They're still losing $30 something on every PS3 sold and a lot of their biggest franchises are just making it to retail in the next few months or are still on the horizon.

There are so many first time 360 and PS3 owners in the last 4 months or so since the PS3 and 360 Elite went down to $299, that it would be completely insane for anyone to be launching a new console any time soon. There's just too many people right now that are too heavily invested in this current generation of gaming, and too many people that have just started to invest in it. The only "new" console I see coming out any time soon is an HD Wii. HD is everywhere now and Nintendo is gonna have to get onboard sooner or later.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

M$

When are people going to chill it with this? It makes you sound like you're 12.

[Swamperon]

By The Way, How is the PSPGo doing?

I think, but am not definite, that its sales haven't been particularly spectacular.

Also, it hasn't really been 5 years in this gen. Sure the 360 was launched in 2005 but the 7th Gen didn't really start until the Wii and PS3 were launched in 2007 so really we're only just over the 3rd year mark. Going by that, 2011/12 is the logical year when we'll start to see the beginnings of the 8th gen. Which is what rumours/speculation have pointed too so far.

[kedawa]

For me, the biggest indicator that a PS4 is a ways off is the simple fact that Sony still makes PS2s.

[Trumpman]

Sure the 360 was launched in 2005 but the 7th Gen didn't really start until the Wii and PS3 were launched in 2007 so really we're only just over the 3rd year mark. Going by that, 2011/12 is the logical year when we'll start to see the beginnings of the 8th gen.

Wii and PS3 came out in late 2006, not 2007. While I think it is obvious that graphics can be drastically improved in a new generation, along with physics and AI, I do think that the next generation will not start until 2012 at the earliest. This is mainly due to the economy.

[Rob2600]

In the U.S., the 360 launched in late 2005. The Wii and PS3 launched in late 2006. In no way is that five years. The OP jumped the gun by almost a year.

[MichaelXX2]

I'd like to see a Wii with HD capabilities, but the one thing that needs to be in a new Wii is DVD and Blu-Ray support, IMO. There's no excuse.

[Enigmus]

When are people going to chill it with this? It makes you sound like you're 12.

I'm in 8th grade, and I have to sit with a 12 year old. He yelled at me because I had an Apple sticker on my first model DS, and he goes, "Why do you have that? Do you call that AppleS?" I proceeded to tell him to talk to me about it when his balls drop. He promptly shut up.

12 year olds- "Making idiotic names like AppleS and M$ since forever!" X_x

[MichaelXX2]

Not all 12 year olds are idiots. Although all of the 12 year olds at my school are idiots, that's just a dumb stereotype.

[duffmanth]

When are people going to chill it with this? It makes you sound like you're 12.

Well sometimes I have the mentality of a 12 year old!

[j_factor]

For me, the biggest indicator that a PS4 is a ways off is the simple fact that Sony still makes PS2s.

Sony didn't cease production of the PSOne until early 2006.

[Gameguy]

Patent that shit.

Seriously though, this would be the only way to go to a digital distribution model next generation. But there's not been any serious chatter about something like this, that I know of. It seems as if all the bloggers and tech writers are married to the idea of video game companies foregoing retail outlets and piping the game directly into the household. All the consoles would need massive hard drives though, even for the Wal-mart style model.
It's not like digital distribution is entirely new, they could go use a similar model to what the Famicom Disk System had in Japan. You could buy a blank disk and pay to have a game written on it from a kiosk unit.

Instead of a floppy disk, use a unique type of flash card(unique to reduce piracy). Sell blank flash cards and have people pay to have games written to them, if you don't like a game you can have the card written over instead of buying a new one for every game you want to keep. For those who collect, include an option to have a label for the card and cover sleeve printed and use standard cases for all games. Games could always stay in print and be available since it's always made on demand, just make sure to keep the kiosks updated to have the latest games available and you're set. What's the storage space of flash cards these days? Last I checked I saw USB flash drives at 8GB.

[Rob2600]

There are 32 GB memory sticks, but they're expensive right now. Maybe in a few years, they'll be cheaper.

[TheDomesticInstitution]

It's not like digital distribution is entirely new


You don't say?

[NE146]

When are people going to chill it with this? It makes you sound like you're 12.

I still say "M$", and heck, I used to work there :p

[TheDomesticInstitution]

I still say "M$", and heck, I used to work there :p

Say it ain't so!

Out of curiosity, if one were to verbalize "M$," how would it sound?

[jb143]

Say it ain't so!

Out of curiosity, if one were to verbalize "M$," how would it sound?

One thousand dollars?

Oh wait, is money in Roman numerals or SI? It could be one million dollars.

[badinsults]

As pointed out in #vbender, the title of this topic is misleading. It has only been four years and 2 months since the Xbox 360 was released.

[BetaWolf47]

Okay, but how about DS? That was November 21, 2004.

[Icarus Moonsight]

Okay, but how about DS? That was November 21, 2004.

Streams. Don't cross them.

[badinsults]

Okay, but how about DS? That was November 21, 2004.

You are seriously clumping handhelds with consoles?


Besides, Nintendo announced their next generation DS a couple of weeks ago. :p

[Press_Start]

Wii and PS3 are in their 4th year and 360 recently entered in its 5th, so yeah the modern gen is too young to start considering "next gen". But since someone brought it up, why not throw my two cents in?

All next-gen console will be motion+regular controller standard with a slight graphical upgrade thanks to news from E3 09 and MS and PS3 may try to market it as a separate console but given our economic situation, probably sell the motion controls as add-on or a pack-in. It's the most likely choice as many stated, hardware and software costs are damn near expensive and far from tapping their full potential yet. If MS and PS3 learned from their mistakes next gen, then don't expect a major console change until they produce one with an affordable price tag (i.e. < $500).

One aspect that's interesting is the optical drive vs thumb drive debate. As technology progresses, portable drive have growing storage size, next to zero load times, and increasingly cheaper. On top of that, they're durable and can't stratch as easily as compact discs. With the "next gen" many years off, it's plausible thumb drive can overtake optical and may harkon the return of cartridges on consoles. What do you guys think?

[Garry Silljo]

With the "next gen" many years off, it's plausible thumb drive can overtake optical and may harkon the return of cartridges on consoles. What do you guys think?

I would welcome it.

[Bojay1997]

In the U.S., the 360 launched in late 2005. The Wii and PS3 launched in late 2006. In no way is that five years. The OP jumped the gun by almost a year.

Agreed, but let's be honest, if MS was going to release a console within the traditional five year cycle (i.e. at the end of 2010), there would be a lot of rumors and hype starting to happen, so it's not totally premature. Clearly, it's not going to happen as Natal appears to be the Microsoft product for this holiday season.

[j_factor]

Natal doesn't necessarily mean MS won't release a new console as soon as 2011 though. Natal could be the new 32x.

It was six years between PS2 and PS3, Genesis and Saturn, and NES and SNES. It's not outside the norm.

[chrisbid]

It was six years between PS2 and PS3, Genesis and Saturn, and NES and SNES. It's not outside the norm.



true, but the hype machine normally begins a good two years before launch. no hype this time around