predicting the next-gen Xbox after 360

[airraid]

http://www.tech.co.uk/home-entertain...s-next-console


before anyone starts down that "it's too early" path, no it's not too early to discuss the next generation of consoles. PS3 was discussed in 1999 before the PS2 came out and Xbox2 was discissed in 2002 right after the original Xbox was released. Microsoft and ATI announced their partnership for the graphics of Xbox 360 in August 2003, before the original Xbox had been on the market for even 2 years.

There have been articles and threads on Xbox3/PS4 for several years already, so it's nothing new. the article I linked to above is 2 pages of predictions on the hardware that might power the next generation Xbox -- not the specific hardware but what will be possible.

Some of it might seem too far fetched but technology is moving rapidly even now. as far as technology goes, Xbox 360 and PlayStation3 are getting old, even though 360 has only been around 2 years and the PS3 for 1 year and both are much more powerful than the Wii. but compared to current highend PC technology, 360/PS3 are very much outdated. DX10 class graphics cards are a large leap in both features & performance. while dual-core and quad-core CPUs have more practical performance than the CPUs in 360/PS3. so if you read that article and think the technology they're talking about seems too expensive or not possible, think about where current highend PCs are and then add 4 years of advancement to that.

of course we should continue to enjoy the current generation. there are years left of life in the present systems including the Xbox 360. hundreds of more games will be made for all 3 systems. dozens of them will be worth owning. it's not like this generation of consoles will be replaced by a new generation of consoles in a year or two, that's not going to happen. At the same time, I always like to know what's on the horizon because eventually in gaming, the future generation becomes the present generation

[Merlins Beard]

...it's too early.

[gepeto]

I remember when they said ps2 lifespan was 10 years. I think we peaked for a good bit. You can try to go crazy with chips but that stuff is expensive. I hear sony is selling the cell. I think in the future devlopement is the key. Remakes are getting long in tooth and recent sales speaks volumes.

[otaku]

I dunno about ten years that to me might be to long I like getting new hardware 7 sounds pretty good though with lots of quality games please.

Next gen I'd like to see this XBOX:

45nm CPU maybe quad core at 3-4ghz? Either way I want the next system to run cooler and quiter! And faster

More HD space (120-250 gig)

Wifi built in like ps3 and wii!!!

New looks and better reliability! As always better graphics are nice (DX10 stuff please!)

[diskoboy]

I dunno about ten years that to me might be to long I like getting new hardware 7 sounds pretty good though with lots of quality games please.

Next gen I'd like to see this XBOX:

45nm CPU maybe quad core at 3-4ghz? Either way I want the next system to run cooler and quiter! And faster

More HD space (120-250 gig)

Wifi built in like ps3 and wii!!!

New looks and better reliability! As always better graphics are nice (DX10 stuff please!)

The 360 is a tri-core chip.

I'd build it octo-core (2x quad core chips) with a minimum of 5ghz per core (which will probably be the processor speedsa about 4 years from now). You need to live near a lake to use the water needed to cool those puppies.

And next generation.... we should be damn close to having photorealistic games, by that point.

[slip81]

And next generation.... we should be damn close to having photorealistic games, by that point.

yeah yeah yeah, I get all that; but where's the gameplay?




sorry, I've been watching too much VH1 Classic

[cyberfluxor]

Before you jump into the multi-core business you must know it's much more difficult to program for and efficiency is difficult because timing is everything, just like in hardware design. It will add to the complexity of software design causing longer delays in product roll-out unless they employ more skilled parallel programmers.

Then of course you have the DX10 leap. Consoles and PCs are similar however consoles are created with gaming in mind, therefore it should be of more concern in create a video firmware to clean up a consoles graphicals engine and bring enhancements to their table.

The discussion of density is hillarious, just remember we're talking 2012 here. Does 3D optical data storage ring a bell? Hard drives might even be useless with the advancement of solid state storage and the shear size of discs in the near future along with flash memory. It's insane to limit a console to 250GB on HHD.

Even 4 years is just a bit far to see what's available. There are things being developed that may be deployed in just several months that can blow the current technology out of the water. I say just kick back and relax, it'll slowly take shape but right now it's difficult to even guess what they'll do.

[chrisbid]

MS needs to focus on making a profit, unless they are dead sure they can make a massive profit from a new xbox, there is a good chance there wont be one.

[kaedesdisciple]

Meh, that seems like a lot of useless, speculatory numbers and letters that will change countless times before we see actual hardware. I'll come back when they start talking games.

[monkeychemist]

Next gen Xbox? If we could already think about it and put specs on paper it wouldn't be next gen. I think that in order for it to be considered as such it would have to have a significant improvement.

Also, PS3 is not getting old. There hasn't been enough good games on it to get old.

[Oobgarm]

Forget M$, you're not looking at the BIG PICTURE!

Looking ahead towards the next-generation of consoles, I can actually forsee a new competitor entering the arena. Comcast.

GAMING AS WE KNOW IT WILL BE DOOMED TO HELL

[Zap!]

I am pretty certain that BOTH the new Nintendo and Xbox systems will use HD-DVD drives. Blu-Ray is toast.

[theoakwoody]

Personally, I think both Microsoft and Sony will not try to be as cutting edge as they were this generation. When it takes this long to turn a profit on hardware sales the company takes too big of a hit. How much does sony still lose on each PS3 they sell? I think Sony will actually have a huge advantage going into the next generation because of the chance they took on Blu-ray with the PS3. In 4 years Blu-Ray technology will be cheap to make and it looks like it may be the standard over HD-DVD. This would force Microsoft to have to pay Sony to use their technology because they wouldn't want to get bashed for their system not being able to play movies. Sony may even not license the technology to Microsoft which would limit their next gen system's media capabilities. I'm guessing the Blu-Ray fee Sony will charge won't be that high by then and if it is the standard this whole scenario may not even be an issue.

Hopefully Microsoft will focus more on durability than on performance so they don't have to fix every other system they put on the shelves. I've had my 360 for a month and my buddy bought his at the same time luckily mine didn't break. He took his to UPS to ship it back to Microsoft and the guy there says he sees 4 to5 a day. That sounds exaggerated but what if it was only 1 a day. That's one UPS location out of hundreds. I know that a ton of PS2's broke and it didn't seem to hurt it's popularity but I think Microsoft is in big trouble if they don't take care of this issue in their next console.

What I don't get is Sony. Basically the only thing holding the game back right now is the games. Not that they should stop supporting the PS2 but where are all the first party games? They'll have to do a better job of making sure there are blockbuster titles available in the first 12 months of their next consoles release. Maybe they need to gobble up a couple of studios in order to make sure they don't lose any more exclusives.

Nintendo seems to make money no matter what they do, even with the gamecube, they were making money on every system sold from the beginning. Historically Nintendo has been all over the map as far as being the superior or inferior system when looking at the specs of the consoles. I doubt they will try to outdo Sony or Microsoft on their next console but I imagine they may try to get closer than they did with the Wii vs. the PS3 and 360. I also think M$ and Sony will emulate the Wii control scheme to some extent but will choose to keep a traditional controller alternative. The Six axis is a start and from what I read was a direct response to what Nintendo showed to people in the industry. One thing I predict is that third parties will continue to recognize that consumers only buy Nintendo products and so they will either use Nintendo as their publisher or avoid the next Wii.

[airraid]

I dunno about ten years that to me might be to long I like getting new hardware 7 sounds pretty good though with lots of quality games please.

6 to 7 years is fine with me.

Next gen I'd like to see this XBOX:

45nm CPU maybe quad core at 3-4ghz? Either way I want the next system to run cooler and quiter! And faster

well, Intel will have 45nm chips in 2008. the rest of the industry (CPUs, GPUs, etc) will probably be using 45nm by 2009. the next Xbox isn't due out until 2011-2012, by that time, 32nm and/or 22nm fabbing processes should be readily available.

Clockspeed won't matter nearly as much as how much work each core can do, per clockcycle, and of course the number of cores. Intel has quad core this year and upto 8 cores next year.

I'm sure the next Xbox will use more than 8 cores. 2 to 8 cores is concidered "multi core" while anything with more than 8 cores is concidered "manycore". Xbox3 will no doubt have a 'manycore CPU', but how far beyond 8 cores is anyone's guess. I'd think that 16 cores will be the sweet spot.

However like I said in my OP, Epic is R&Ding Unreal Engine 4 anticipating 30 to 40 cores in next-gen systems. while that sounds outrageous today, if you were told in 2001 that PS3 would have 8 cores you might have said "no way".

More HD space (120-250 gig)

Wifi built in like ps3 and wii!!!

agreed, and agreed.

New looks and better reliability! As always better graphics are nice (DX10 stuff please!)

yes, much MUCH better reliability, at least as reliable as the original Xbox.

as for DX10, well, DX10 and Shader Model 4.0 will be old by the time the next Xbox comes out. Xbox 360 does not use either DX9 or DX10, it's a custom API and as for the Shader spec it is between 3.0 and 4.0. so the next Xbox will use either Shader 5.0 or higher, and again, a custom API.